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Jordan Luplow Undergoes Ankle Surgery

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Rays first baseman and outfielder Jordan Luplow successfully underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left ankle today, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Tampa Bay expects Luplow to be recovered in time for the start of 2022 Spring Training.

The Rays acquired Luplow along with reliever DJ Johnson in a midseason deal with Cleveland to deepen their bench down the stretch. Luplow’s health status at the time hinted at this offseason procedure, as he was rehabbing in the minors with a left ankle sprain when the trade took place.

The trade proved fruitful, but perhaps in unexpected ways for the playoff contending Rays. Luplow, who to this point in his Major League career only appeared in the three outfield positions and DH, primarily manned first base and garnered positive marks there for the Rays. His resume continued to expand as he also went on to make cameos at second and third base, in addition to contributing an inning of one-run ball as a pitcher.

Further, the right-handed Luplow made his mark in the Cleveland organization for being a lefty masher, sporting an OPS of .899 when holding the platoon advantage in his career. In both Tampa and the year on the whole, however, Luplow’s skillset reversed, as he pulverized right-handed pitching but stumbled to a sub-.700 OPS against lefties. The resulting overall .202/.326/.454 slash on the year was good for an OPS+ of 115 when factoring in Luplow’s pitcher-friendly home parks, but newfound success against same-handed pitchers may add a wrinkle to how the team evaluates him moving forward.

Pete Kozma Elects Free Agency

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7:58 pm: Kozma has officially elected free agency, per the team.

11:38 am: The A’s have outrighted veteran infielder Pete Kozma off their 40-man roster, according to MLB.com’s transactions log. Oakland has yet to formally announce the move, but Kozma will become a free agent now that he’s gone unclaimed on waivers.

Kozma, 33, was added to the Athletics’ 40-man roster for the season’s final weekend after Elvis Andrus suffered a season-ending leg fracture. He went 1-for-11 during that Oakland cameo — his first big league action since the 2018 season in Detroit. The rest of Kozma’s season was spent with Triple-A Las Vegas, where he batted .244/.307/.337 in 500 plate appearances and collected the 1000th hit of his minor league career.

Best known for his time with the Cardinals, Kozma was the primary for St. Louis in 2013 when the Cards fell to the Red Sox in the World Series. He hit just .217/.275/.273 in 448 plate appearances that season but graded out as a plus defensive infielder on a Cardinals staff that had the game’s second-highest ground-ball percentage.

That was the only season in which Kozma ever logged even semi-regular action. His 111 plate appearances with the 2015 Cardinals are the second-highest mark he’s reached in any of his eight big league seasons. In 825 plate appearances at the Major League level, Kozma is a .213/.276/.288 hitter. He’s a lifetime .235/.305/.340 hitter in the minors and could latch on as a depth option somewhere else in minor league free agency.

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds were competitive in 2021 but ultimately came up short of a Wild Card berth. Cincinnati now faces the potential departure of one of their middle-of-the-order hitters, which would leave general manager Nick Krall needing to find some other way to bolster the offense while restructuring a bullpen that was among the league’s worst in 2021. There’s a strong core already in place, but the pressure to supplement it effectively continues to build as the club’s window of contractual control over some key players gets smaller.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Joey Votto, 1B: $57MM through 2023 (includes buyout of 2024 club option)
  • Mike Moustakas, 3B: $38MM through 2023 (includes buyout of 2024 club option)
  • Eugenio Suárez, 3B: $35MM through 2024 (includes buyout of 2025 club option)
  • Sonny Gray, RHP: $10.667MM through 2022 (no buyout on 2023 club option)
  • Shogo Akiyama, CF: $8MM through 2022

Players With Contractual Options

  • Nick Castellanos, RF: Can opt out of contract’s remaining two years and $34MM
  • Wade Miley: LHP: $10MM club option ($1MM buyout)
  • Tucker Barnhart, C: $7.5MM club option ($500K buyout)
  • Justin Wilson, LHP: $2.3MM player option; if Wilson declines, Cincinnati holds a $7.15MM club option ($1.15MM buyout)

Total 2022 commitments (assuming Castellanos opts out and Wilson exercises player option): $90.467MM

Projected Salaries for Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Garrett

Free Agents

The Reds hung around the postseason picture all season, even looking like Wild Card favorites into September. The Cardinals streaked to the National League’s final postseason spot near the end of the year, though, leaving the Reds on the outside looking in for the seventh time in the past eight years.

Cincinnati already made one key decision, signing manager David Bell to a two-year contract extension last month. Bell has been at the helm for three seasons of generally average play, but the front office was evidently pleased enough with his locker room presence and decision-making to give him some security moving forward.

With Bell’s status now certain, Krall and his staff can turn their full focus towards the roster. Nick Castellanos is all but certain to exercise his opt-out clause and test free agency, where he’d be a strong candidate to land a $100+MM deal. Going to nine figures wouldn’t be totally unprecedented for the Reds, but it would require a sharp turnaround from their most recent spending habits.

The Reds were among the most active teams in cutting costs last winter on the heels of a season with no gate revenue. Cincinnati traded away one of the game’s best relievers, Raisel Iglesias, in a move that amounted to little more than a salary dump. They sat out the offseason shortstop market and entered the year running an ill-advised experiment with Eugenio Suárez at short. And there were rumblings last winter about the Reds considering moving some of their arbitration-eligible starting pitchers, although there’s no indication such talks ever got particularly far.

It seems reasonable to expect owner Bob Castellini to greenlight more spending this offseason after a comparatively normal campaign. There’s a line between not further slashing payroll and winning the bidding on a top free agent, though. Even if Castellini signs off on a payroll near 2019’s franchise-record $149MM level — a significant uptick over this past season’s $132MM mark — retaining Castellanos while adequately addressing the roster’s other deficiencies could be a challenge.

Assuming Justin Wilson exercises his player option and Castellanos opts out, the Reds will enter the winter with a little more than $90MM on the books, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Exercising Wade Miley’s $10MM club option would push that total near nine figures. Cincinnati could buy Miley out and reallocate that money, but that’d require parting ways with a pitcher who quietly tossed 163 innings of 3.37 ERA ball this past season despite playing his home games in one of baseball’s more hitter-friendly environments.

Exercising Miley’s option and then putting him on the trade market could be something of a middle ground — allowing the front office to recoup some talent without taking on additional salary. Even in that instance, the Reds would be moving on from a highly affordable deal for a key member of the rotation, though. The most likely outcome still seems to be Cincinnati exercising the option and bringing Miley back, but that’d seem to further decrease the chances of a Castellanos return.

The Reds also have to make a $7MM decision on longtime catcher Tucker Barnhart. The 30-year-old is a career-long member of the organization who’s a generally capable backstop, but rookie Tyler Stephenson already looks like one of the better offensive catchers in baseball. It seems likely they’ll pay Barnhart a $500K buyout instead of exercising his $7.5MM club option. That’d give Stephenson the primary job, although doing so probably requires bringing in a cheaper veteran backup this offseason.

Elsewhere on the diamond, Jesse Winker has one corner outfield spot locked down after a second consecutive huge season. There’s no longer much doubt that Winker is one of the game’s best hitters, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the front office kicks around the possibility of an extension. Winker is under control via arbitration for two more seasons. Projected for a solid $6.8MM salary already, he might not feel pressured into considering a below-market extension at this point. Still, there’s little harm for Cincinnati in at least gauging his asking price on a potential deal.

The rest of the outfield would be an open question if Castellanos opts out, as would the potential designated hitter if the position comes to the National League in collective bargaining this winter. None of Aristides Aquino, Shogo Akiyama nor Nick Senzel look like slam-dunk regulars going into 2022. Tyler Naquin probably did enough this season to lock down a spot somewhere alongside Winker, but either of center or right field (with Naquin manning the other position) would be an area of need.

The free agent center field market is barren behind Starling Marte and utilityman Chris Taylor, both of whom might price themselves out of the bidding for Cincinnati. Mark Canha could be a lower-cost alternative to man right, while Jorge Soler offers a broadly similar skillset to Castellanos (strong exit velocities with below-average defense) for cheaper, albeit with much less consistency at the plate. Avisaíl García, Joc Pederson and Kole Calhoun are among the other alternatives who could be available on the open market.

The outfield could be in line for some turnover, but Cincinnati could be content to fill next year’s infield internally. Franchise icon Joey Votto is locked into the middle of the order following an otherworldly second half. Jonathan India should probably win the National League’s Rookie of the Year award after hitting .269/.376/.459 to seize the second base job.

The Suárez shortstop experiment fell flat, but Kyle Farmer quietly stabilized the position with a nice season after taking over in May. A former catcher, Farmer adapted surprisingly well to shortstop and hit a fine .263/.316/.416 over the course of 529 plate appearances. He’s a 31-year-old utilityman who entered the 2021 campaign with a career .242/.297/.370 slash line, so the front office probably wouldn’t be entirely enthused to hand him the job again heading into 2022. They needn’t do that, though, since top prospect José Barrero looks poised to run with the position at some point.

Barrero hasn’t yet done much at the big league level, but he’s coming off a .306/.392/.592 showing in Triple-A. Baseball America slotted him as the top prospect in the Cincinnati farm system midseason, and the 23-year-old is widely expected to be a fixture in the dirt at Great American Ball Park in the not too distant future. Farmer’s quiet stability gives the Reds some leeway to be patient, but he could easily slide back into a utility role if Barrero begins to translate his immense talent into big league productivity.

For the first time in five years, third base looks like a question mark for Cincinnati. Not only did Suárez struggle defensively in his early-season move to shortstop, his offensive production cratered. Suárez hit 31 home runs, but it came with his worst walk rate since 2016 (9.8%) and a meager .198 batting average. While he still has the potential to do damage in any given at-bat, Suárez’s offensive consistency has dropped off significantly over the past two seasons, and the Reds began to curtail his playing time later in the year.

There’s a case for the Reds to look for an upgrade at third base, but that’d require pouring even more resources into a position where the club already has Suárez and Mike Moustakas on significant contracts. Moustakas will be looking for a bounceback season of his own after struggling to a career-worst .208/.282/.372 showing while being obviously hampered by a foot injury. It’s not an enviable position to be in, but the Reds seem likely to run things back with Suárez and Moustakas in hopes that at least one can regain some of his prior form. The front office certainly didn’t envision a Suárez/Moustakas platoon when signing those players to long-term deals, but that might be the best option for Bell to get production from that position moving forward.

The front office might also feel their work in the rotation is already done, particularly if they exercise Miley’s option. Luis Castillo rebounded from an awful first two months to post a characteristically strong second half. Sonny Gray had his third consecutive solid season after coming over from the Yankees during the 2018-19 offseason. Tyler Mahle is one of the better young pitchers around the league, and Miley’s coming off a very good season as mentioned.

The Reds could probably do better than Vladimir Gutierrez in the final spot, but top pitching prospects Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo are on the doorstep of the big leagues and could be factors themselves next year. Cincinnati might look to add a low-cost innings eating type at the back end — especially if Miley ends up elsewhere — but the core of a potential playoff rotation is already in place.

A trade involving Gray or Castillo can’t be completely ruled out, since the club reportedly fielded offers on both players last offseason. Gray will make just under $11MM next season, while Castillo is projected for a $7.6MM arbitration salary. Both pitchers are under team control through 2023.

Cincinnati is looking to compete immediately, making a Gray or Castillo deal still seem unlikely. Krall downplayed the importance of trade talks involving their top pitchers last winter, characterizing those discussions as a matter of due diligence. More conversations of that nature will surely take place in the coming months, but there’s no pressing need for the Reds to force a trade involving either player.

The biggest priority for the Reds this offseason — aside from retaining or replacing Castellanos — has to be revamping the bullpen. Reds’ relievers were among the worst in the league at preventing runs last season, largely due to walk and home run issues. There’s a strong case, in fact, that the bullpen was the biggest reason they missed the playoffs.

Even after adjusting for park effects, the Reds outhit the Cardinals in 2021. The two teams’ respective rotation ERA’s (4.01 for St. Louis, 4.03 for Cincinnati) were almost identical. The biggest separator between the Reds and the NL’s final playoff team was a gap of more than a full run in ERA (3.97 versus 4.99) from the relief corps.

Making matters worse, Cincinnati’s best reliever, Tejay Antone, will probably miss the entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in September. Michael Lorenzen is set to hit free agency, as is deadline pickup Mychal Givens. The Reds can take a broad approach to talent acquisition, scouring the waiver wire and non-tender markets for relievers they like. But it’d be a surprise if they didn’t also add at least one obvious upgrade to the late innings mix.

To their credit, Cincinnati already did some of the bullpen heavy lifting at the trade deadline, picking up Luis Cessa and Wilson from the Yankees. They’re both likely to return, joining Art Warren and Lucas Sims as the top internal options. That still leaves some high-leverage innings to be shouldered though.

Ironically enough, Iglesias is easily the top free agent reliever available. Signing him is likely to cost a hefty three-plus year salary and potentially a draft choice, should the Angels make him a qualifying offer. It’d be a shock to see the Reds meet that asking price just twelve months after trading him away. Instead, they’ll look at least a tier down.

Kendall Graveman and Kenley Jansen might still prove too pricey for the Reds’ liking. The third tier of relievers — which includes players like Corey Knebel, Héctor Neris and Jeurys Familia — could still offer some much-needed help. If Cincinnati looks for a southpaw to pair with Wilson, Aaron Loup, Andrew Chafin and old friend Brooks Raley should be available without coming at prohibitive costs. The Reds could look for creative ways to bring in a controllable reliever via trade as well, just as they did this summer with the Cessa pickup.

Bullpens are often highly volatile, and it’s not hard to envision the Reds constructing a passable relief corps by hitting on just one or two offseason additions. But that’ll require identifying a few key targets from a group of pitchers that (Iglesias and Graveman aside) all come with their own question marks. Krall and his staff have surely already begun to pore over the possibilities, but any bullpen restructuring requires both an adept talent acquisition process and some element of luck.

If Castellanos leaves, the front office will need to figure out how to replace most of his middle-of-the-order production at a lower cost. They might very well have to bank on a repeat of last season’s marvelous production from Votto and a bounceback from either of Suárez or Moustakas. And they’ll no doubt have to hit on an addition or two to the late innings to fix a bullpen that proved untenable in 2021.

None of that is impossible, and the Reds’ rotation and handful of high-end position players gives them a contending core around which to build. There’s not much margin for error for Krall and his group this winter, though, and a bad start to next season would intensify rumors about potential trades involving Gray, Castillo and Winker, each of whom has a dwindling window of remaining team control.

The Reds have a real chance to be competitive in 2022, but they’re also in some danger of never realizing the full potential of this central group of players. How well they handle the potential loss of Castellanos and their hit rate on bullpen upgrades this offseason might ultimately determine whether this group can ever make a deep postseason run.

Cashman Discusses Yankees’ Offseason, Provides Injury Updates

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During the press conference announcing the return of Aaron Boone as manager, Yankees GM Brian Cashman offered some insight into the club’s offseason plans. Cashman was open with regard to the Yankees’ needs, telling reporters he’ll need to offer Boone more flexibility in lineup construction (Twitter links via The Athletic’s Lindsey Adler).

Most notably, the GM addressed the club’s need at shortstop directly and candidly, stating that “[s]hortstop is an area of need. We have to address it.” With one of the most highly regarded classes of shortstops in free agent history about to hit the market, the big-market, big-spending Yankees are a near certainty to feature prominently in the offseason rumor mill.

As MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand and ESPN’s Marly Rivera further noted, Cashman broke several pieces of news on the injury front: starter Jameson Taillon will undergo ankle surgery on October 28 and is expected to be out for five months. DJ LeMahieu, who underperformed expectations after a stellar 2020, has had a procedure to address a sports hernia that will keep him out roughly eight weeks. Cashman also noted that outfielder Aaron Hicks, out since a May wrist surgery, should be ready to resume baseball activities by December and hopes to play winter ball. Assuming all goes to plan, LeMahieu’s surgery shouldn’t have an impact on his availability to start the 2022 season, but Taillon’s timetable suggests he’ll only be ready to return to game action around the end of Spring Training, putting his availability for the Opening Day roster in question.

While Cashman suggested that he hopes to add more athleticism and contact skills to a lineup that had the sixth highest K% (24.5%) in the majors in 2021, Yankees fans have already begun to salivate over the forthcoming free agent market. All three of Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, and Trevor Story would bring a significant potential for star-level production to the Bronx — as might Marcus Semien or the enigmatic Javier Baez, potentially — and each would offer a significant defensive upgrade over incumbent Gleyber Torres.

Any from that group could represent an upgrade on both sides for the Bombers, but how Cashman views them remains to be seen. Though none are poor with the glove, Correa and Story (who have compiled 68 and 69 career DRS at short, respectively) have been a cut above the others. Correa will be 27 next season, giving him an edge in the age department, although Seager isn’t far behind as he heads into his age-28 campaign. Both Story and Baez will play next year at 29, while Semien — who played second base in Toronto this season but has a long track record at shortstop — will play next season at 31.

Though the Yankees are regularly players at the top of the free agent market, payroll implications may also play into their approach, as might the particulars of the forthcoming collective bargaining agreement (presuming, of course, that one is forthcoming). The club’s payroll came in just below the luxury tax threshold of $210MM in 2021, which may allow them to pay a lower rate should they become tax-payers again in 2022, but the only significant salary to come off the books is Corey Kluber’s ($11MM in 2021).

With a number of players set for significant raises in arbitration (most prominently Aaron Judge, though both club and player may prefer to reach an extension agreement), there’s not likely to be much room below the tax threshold for splashy free agent signings. Owner Hal Steinbrenner has not declared any plans to cross the threshold, but the club probably dipped below in 2021 for a reason. Paired with Cashman’s assertion that the Yankees will be “open to anything and everything” (Twitter link via SNY’s Andy Martino), the stage is at least ostensibly set for an active winter.

Following a season that saw them settle for a wild card spot and get bounced from the playoffs by the rival Red Sox, Cashman’s mixed tone is no surprise. Per Rivera, the longstanding GM described the 2021 Yanks remarkable inconsistency, stating that while they were at times “unstoppable,” they were at others “unwatchable.” As MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch relays, Cashman addressed fan disappointment directly with the “obvious” admonition that “we want more. We expect more.”

Injuries clearly played a role, but poor performance also loomed large. Among players with more than 100 plate appearances, only Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Luke Voit, and Anthony Rizzo (acquired from the Cubs at the deadline) posted a wRC+ over 100 while wearing pinstripes. The club’s pitching fared somewhat better but was also bitten by the injury bug, with only Gerrit Cole, Jordan Montgomery, and Taillon notching 20 or more starts and potential high-end righty Luis Severino logging only six innings across four appearances as he made his way back from February 2020 Tommy John surgery. With Kluber out and Taillon a question mark, the club will likely look to dip into the pitching market for at least a depth piece or two.

How, exactly, Cashman will address these shortcomings remains an open question, but he did offer some insight into other offseason plans in the Bronx, including making clear that the club views Torres as a second baseman moving forward and is not entirely committed to Gary Sánchez as its everyday catcher.

Both players were disappointments in 2021. Torres posted a .259/.331/.366 line (down from career marks of .271/.340/.493 entering the year) and was eventually moved from shortstop to second basse. Sánchez regained some of the pop (23 home runs in 440 plate appearances) he’d shown from 2016-2019 alongside a career-high 52 walks but continued to struggle overall; he posted only a .307 OBP driven by a dismal .204 batting average and 27.5 K%. By DRS, both players also struggled with the glove, with Torres costing the Yankees nine runs in the field and Sánchez ten (while throwing out only 17% of would-be base-stealers).

With Torres permanently moving to the keystone and Rizzo’s future uncertain, LeMahieu will likely serve as the Yankees’ primary third baseman in 2022, perhaps sharing time there with Gio Urshela as well as Voit at first — assuming Voit is back in the next year. With the Yankees looking to add a shortstop to the mix, they’ll be left with four regulars (LeMahieu, Urshela, Voit, and Torres) for the other three infield spots. As none of this group has any significant experience in the outfield, a healthy roster might leave Boone facing something of a logjam for at-bats.

With Severino expected to offer quite a bit more on the mound in 2022, better health from Hicks and Voit and bounceback years from LeMahieu and Torres could already go a long way toward righting the ship for a club used to contending for titles year after year. Addressing their need at shortstop with a high-end signing that improves the team on both sides of the ball may go even further.

Yankees Sign Aaron Boone To Three-Year Deal

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After a lengthy silence on the contract status of manager Aaron Boone, the Yankees announced Tuesday that they’ve signed their skipper to a three-year deal that runs through the 2024 campaign. Boone’s contract also contains a club option for the 2025 season. His prior contract had been set to expire after the World Series.

Aaron Boone | Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

“We have a person and manager in Aaron Boone who possesses the baseball acumen and widespread respect in our clubhouse to continue to guide us forward,” owner Hal Steinbrenner said in a statement within this morning’s press release. “As a team and as an organization, we must grow, evolve and improve.  We need to get better.  Period.  I know Aaron fully embraces our expectations of success, and I look forward to drawing on his intelligence, instincts and leadership in pursuit of our next World Series championship.”

It’s been two weeks since the Yankees’ season ended in a 6-2 loss at the hands of their archrival Red Sox. Along the way, New York parted with hitting coach Marcus Thames, third base coach Phil Nevin and assistant hitting coach P.J. Pilittere — all amid wide-ranging speculation about broader changes. Boone, however, will not only return for the 2022 campaign but on a multi-year deal that’ll keep him in the Yankees’ dugout through at least the 2024 season.

Boone, 48, was hired in the 2017-18 offseason following the departure of longtime skipper Joe Girardi. He’s spent four years at the helm in the Bronx, managing the team to a 328-218 regular-season record and reaching the postseason in all four years he’s been with the club — including a 2019 division championship. Those ’19 Yankees made it to an ALCS showdown against the Astros but fell in six games, which represents the deepest run they’ve made in Boone’s four years.

Expectations are perennially sky-high in the Bronx, and four straight years without a World Series appearance under Boone has prompted a vocal portion of the fanbase to call for a change in the dugout. Steinbrenner said back in July, however, that Boone was “absolutely” the right person to lead the team moving forward (although he also voiced confidence in the coaching staff at the same time, and there will be considerable turnover in that regard). His view apparently has not changed. Steinbrenner’s late father, George, was known for more impulsive changes, but Hal emphasized in that July press conference that he’s his own person while also pointing out that many of his father’s rash personnel changes did not pay dividends.

Boone is now under contract for a longer period of time than general manager Brian Cashman, whose previous five-year contract runs through the 2022 season. Steinbrenner has been vocally supportive of Cashman, just as he has Boone, so a new deal at some point wouldn’t register as a major surprise. That said, with a year to go on that contract, ownership needn’t feel any urgency to begin discussions.

The YES Network’s Jack Curry first reported that Boone would be returning on a new three-year contract with a club option for a fourth season (Twitter links).

Previewing The 2021-22 MLB Free Agent Class: Starting Pitchers

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We’ve taken a position-by-position look at the upcoming free agent class at MLBTR in recent weeks. With the position players now all covered, we turn our attention to the starting pitching market.

Each winter, free agency offers a wide variety of starting pitching tiers. There are usually top-of-the-rotation stars, innings-eating types for the middle and back end, and reclamation projects who have shown well in the past but disappointed in their platform seasons. This offseason will be no exception.

Here are the rotation options slated to hit the open market in the coming weeks:

A Tier Unto Himself

  • Max Scherzer (37 years old in 2022): The most dominant pitcher of the current generation, Scherzer could potentially win a fourth Cy Young Award after tossing 179 1/3 innings of 2.46 ERA ball with a huge 34.1% strikeout rate against just a 5.2% walk rate — the third-lowest mark of his storied career. Scherzer is as dominant as he’s ever been, and the only thing that will cap his market this offseason is his age. Justin Verlander signed a two-year, $66MM extension with the Astros for these same age-37 and age-38 seasons, and Scherzer can justifiably look to eclipse that mark in both years and average annual value. He, somewhat incredibly, has a shot at a second nine-figure deal in free agency this winter. He’s ineligible to receive a qualifying offer (both due to being traded midseason and having previously rejected one in his career).

Other Top of the Market Options

  • Robbie Ray (30): Back on Aug. 13, I took a look at how the Jays had struck gold on their decision to jump the market and re-sign Ray right out of the gate in free agency. In the 10 starts he made after the time I published that piece, Ray pitched 63 innings of 2.71 ERA ball with a 36% strikeout rate, solidifying himself as the AL Cy Young favorite. Ray’s success is largely driven by heretofore unseen levels of command; after walking 12.9 percent of his opponents from 2017-20, Ray walked just 6.9 percent of the batters he faced in 2021. His 32.1% strikeout rate is the second-best of his career. His AL-best 193 1/3 innings were a career-high. Some clubs will be skeptical about his ability to maintain that vastly improved command, but Ray has positioned himself for a nine-figure contract of five or six years in length after he rejects a qualifying offer.
  • Kevin Gausman (31): Gausman’s decision to accept a qualifying offer last year looks quite shrewd. The right-hander might’ve been able to command a two- or three-year deal on the heels of his 2020 breakout, but he bet on himself with that one-year deal and improved across the board. Gausman’s 192 frames and 2.81 ERA were both sixth-best among qualified starters, while his 29.2% strikeout rate and 22.8 K-BB% both ranked eighth. Over his past 251 2/3 innings, Gausman carries a flat 3.00 ERA and 30.0% strikeout rate against a terrific 6.5% walk rate. The former No. 4 overall draft pick now looks like the ace Orioles fans might’ve hoped for when he debuted in 2013. He’s ineligible to receive another qualifying offer and will vie with Ray for the largest overall contract of any starter this offseason.
  • Marcus Stroman (30): Stroman doesn’t miss bats at the level of the other top arms on this list, but he’s one of the game’s premier ground-ball pitchers and has better command than most of the names on this list. He’s made 32 or 33 starts in four of the past six seasons, with the exceptions coming in 2020 (when he tore a calf muscle and opted out of the remainder of the season) and in 2018, when he was limited to 19 starts by shoulder fatigue. That’s the only arm injury Stroman has ever had, and the 3.48 ERA he’s compiled over his past four seasons ranks 23rd among 138 qualified starters since 2017. This year’s 3.02 ERA ranked ninth among qualified pitchers. Fielding-independent metrics have never been quite as bullish on Stroman because of his below-average strikeout rate, but his age, durability, premium command and huge ground-ball rates make him one of the market’s top starters. He can’t receive a second qualifying offer and could command a five-year deal himself this winter.
  • Carlos Rodon (29): On July 18, Rodon held the Astros to one hit with no walks and 10 strikeouts in seven shutout innings. He hasn’t topped five innings in a start since. Were it not for an ominous bout of shoulder fatigue that sent Rodon to the IL in August and ostensibly capped him at four to five innings per outing late in the year, he’d be right alongside Ray in AL Cy Young contention. The former No. 3 overall pick broke out with a 2.37 ERA and a 34.6% strikeout rate that trailed only Corbin Burnes (min. 100 innings pitched). Rodon was questionable for the ALDS but eventually pitched 2 2/3 innings in the ChiSox’ final effort against Houston. He was hitting the upper-90s with his heater, but that brief look may not be enough to allay concerns about his shoulder. Rodon could reject a qualifying offer and look to max out on a shorter multi-year deal. Alternatively, he could go the Gausman/Stroman route — accept a QO and hope a big 2022 showing positions him for a nine-figure deal next winter.

Former Cy Young Winners in their Mid/Late 30s

  • Zack Greinke (38): Greinke still provides innings, but his average fastball was down to 89.0 mph in 2021 and he posted a second consecutive ERA north of 4.00. Greinke’s season-long numbers were torpedoed by a poor stretch of four starts to close out the year. His ERA sat at 3.41 as recently as Aug. 23 — albeit with a sub-par 17.5 percent strikeout rate. Still, Greinke is durable and possesses outstanding command. Teams will see him as a workhorse who can provide average or better innings while passing down plenty of knowledge to younger arms. He’s already turned down one qualifying offer, so he can’t receive a second.
  • Justin Verlander (39): It was surprising to hear Astros owner Jim Crane say Verlander would be seeking “a contract of some length” recently. The two-time Cy Young winner has thrown just six innings since the conclusion of the 2019 postseason due to 2020 Tommy John surgery. Houston will make a qualifying offer, and if Verlander is indeed intent on multiple years, he’ll reject. Verlander has said in the past that he hopes to pitch into his mid-40s, and his resume speaks for itself. A multi-year deal is risky, but how many arms come with this type of ceiling?
  • Corey Kluber (36): Kluber’s comeback looked to be in full swing when he no-hit the Rangers in May. However, he pitched three innings in his next start, went on the injured list for three months, and returned with a 5.40 ERA in his final 26 2/3 frames. Kluber still finished with a solid 3.83 ERA in 80 innings, but his 24 percent strikeout rate was roughly average and his 9.7 percent walk rate was high. That no-no and a dominant outing against the Tigers early in the year stand out, but his season lacked consistency.
  • Clayton Kershaw (34): He wasn’t quite peak Kershaw, but the second three-time Cy Young winner on this list rattled off 121 2/3 innings of 3.55 ERA ball with even more promising strikeout (29.5) and walk (4.3) percentages when healthy. Kershaw hit the IL with forearm inflammation in early July and missed two months before returning for four shaky starts down the stretch (15 1/3 innings, 4.70 ERA). He’s out for the postseason due to renewed forearm discomfort but won’t require surgery, instead receiving a platelet-rich plasma injection. There’s huge uncertainty here. If the Dodgers feel he’s healthy enough to make a qualifying offer, perhaps the simplest course would just be for Kershaw to accept.

Mid-Rotation Arms in their Prime

  • Anthony DeSclafani (32): DeSclafani was clobbered by the Dodgers this season and posted a 2.21 ERA against all other teams (hat tip to The Athletic’s Grant Brisbee). The end result was a 3.17 ERA in 167 2/3 innings, a slightly below-average strikeout percentage (22.5) and a very strong walk rate (6.2 percent). DeSclafani has some injuries on his track record, most notably an elbow strain that cost him the 2017 season but didn’t require surgery. He’s made 31 starts of sub-4.00 ERA ball in two of the past three seasons and could find interest on a three- or perhaps even four-year deal — depending on whether the Giants make a qualifying offer.
  • Jon Gray (30): Gray went down with a forearm issue late in the season and was rocked upon returning, but it was a solid year for the former No. 3 overall draft pick when healthy. Gray throws hard, misses bats, keeps the ball on the ground and has solid command. He owns a 4.52 ERA and 4.01 FIP over four prior seasons, and he’s the type of prime-aged, power arm another team could dream on. Colorado opted not to trade him at the deadline, so a qualifying offer seems likely, as they’d otherwise stand to lose him without compensation.
  • Steven Matz (31): Matz has had an up-and-down career, sometimes looking like a non-tender candidate but sometimes looking like a mid-rotation building block. The latter was the case in 2021, Matz’s lone season with the Blue Jays. He posted a 3.82 ERA in 150 2/3 frames with solid strikeout and walk rates. He’s been on the IL every year since 2015, albeit mostly for minor injuries that required only brief absences. He’s done enough for a team to give him a multi-year deal to pitch out of the middle of a rotation.
  • Eduardo Rodriguez (29): One of the youngest pitchers on the market this year, Rodriguez will be overlooked by some simply due to a pedestrian 4.74 ERA. However, E-Rod had the best strikeout and walk percentages of his career and largely allayed concerns about his health and durability after missing the 2020 season due to a troubling bout of myocarditis. Rodriguez has a 4.13 ERA with sub-4.00 marks in FIP, xFIP, SIERA and xERA over his past four seasons. Even if he rejects a qualifying offer, he’ll be a popular multi-year deal candidate.
  • Alex Wood (30): Wood barely pitched from 2019-20 and has a history of shoulder troubles, but he made 26 starts with strong cumulative numbers in 2021 (3.83 ERA, 26% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate, 50.8% grounder rate). With an ERA of 3.84 or better in every season of his career outside of those injury-ruined 2019-20 seasons, quality strikeout rates and plus ground-ball rates, Wood will be popular on the market. Like his teammate, DeSclafani, he’s a borderline QO candidate.

Older Veterans/Back-of-the-Rotation Options

  • Brett Anderson (34): A ground-ball specialist who doesn’t miss many bats, Anderson has a 4.12 ERA and strong command over his past four seasons. He’s spent a fair bit of time on the IL, however, resulting in just 399 1/3 frames dating back to 2018.
  • Tyler Anderson (32): Anderson has rebuilt his stock nicely over the past two seasons, but his rookie year 3.54 ERA back in 2016 was a long time ago. He’s generally a solid five-inning starter with an ERA in the mid-4.00s. A two-year deal isn’t out of the question based on his age and the consistency with which he’s taken the ball over the past two seasons.
  • Alex Cobb (34): The 2021 version of Cobb might be the best we’ve seen since 2013-14, but injuries limited him to 93 1/3 frames. Cobb has never made 30 starts in a season, so the injury risk is palpable, but he’s coming off a solid 2021 campaign.
  • J.A. Happ (39): Happ looked like a DFA candidate with the Twins but posted a 4.00 ERA in 54 innings following a trade to the Cardinals. His strikeout and walk rates didn’t really change in St. Louis, but his BABIP dropped by 60 points. Playing in front of MLB’s top defense (per DRS and OAA) certainly didn’t hurt.
  • Rich Hill (42): Raise your hand if you expected 41-year-old Hill to post the second-highest innings total of his career in 2021. The lefty’s strikeout and walk rates both improved over their 2020 levels, and he posted near-identical ERAs between the Rays and Mets. He’s made clear he’s not retiring, so look for another one-year deal to slot into the middle of a rotation.
  • Kwang Hyun Kim (33): He’s been mostly a five-inning starter and has been helped out immensely by a lights-out Cardinal defense (.257 BABIP, 17.2% strikeout rate), but Kim owns a 2.97 ERA in 145 2/3 MLB frames. His 4.89 SIERA tells another story, but as a fifth back-of-the-rotation option or long man, teams could do much worse.
  • Wade LeBlanc (37): The journeyman lefty helped keep the Cardinals afloat when their rotation need was at its most dire point (3.61 ERA in 42 1/3 innings), but an elbow injury ultimately ended his season and required surgery.
  • Jon Lester (38): Lester couldn’t keep his ERA under 5.00 in Washington, but like Happ, his results improved playing in front of the St. Louis defensive juggernaut. Lester is a five-inning starter at this point and had one of the lowest K-BB% marks of any pitcher in 2021 (min. 100 IP). If he wants to keep pitching, though, someone will pencil the veteran in for some innings.
  • Jordan Lyles (31): The two-year, $16MM deal he inked with Texas didn’t pan out as the Rangers hoped. This year’s 5.15 ERA was unsightly, but Lyles tied for 18th in the league with 180 innings pitched. He can eat some innings at the back of someone’s rotation in 2022.
  • Wily Peralta (33): Peralta didn’t pitch in 2020 but returned to the big leagues with 93 2/3 innings of 3.07 ERA ball for Detroit. His poor 14.4% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate don’t inspire a lot of confidence in his ability to repeat that feat, but he’s put himself back on the radar.
  • Michael Pineda (33): Injuries hampered Pineda throughout the season and likely prevented the Twins from trading him. There’s mutual interest between he  and the Twins, so he could simply re-sign. If not, he’ll take a 3.62 ERA and a pristine walk rate (4.6%) into the free-agent market — but also a diminished heater (90.9 mph) and a career-worst strikeout rate (19.2%).
  • Drew Smyly (33): Smyly got out to a rough start before rebounding with a 3.85 ERA from May 1 through season’s end. There are obvious durability concerns, and he didn’t replicate last year’s strikeout rate, but the southpaw will still garner plenty of interest.
  • Michael Wacha (30): Wacha has signed a pair of one-year deals in hopes of rebuilding his stock the past two seasons, but it hasn’t exactly happened. He logged 124 2/3 frames with the Rays and posted a 5.05 ERA in 2021 and now carries a 5.11 ERA over his past three seasons. He’s young enough that there’s a tinge of upside here, but some teams probably just view him as a fifth starter at this point.

Rebound Hopefuls/Depth Options

  • Chase Anderson (34): A solid rotation piece from 2014-19, Anderson has limped to an ERA just shy of 7.00 over the past two seasons.
  • Chris Archer (33): Injuries have taken their toll on Archer, who had thoracic outlet surgery in 2020 and pitched just 19 1/3 innings in his 2021 return to the Rays.
  • Jake Arrieta (36): Released by the Cubs late in the season, Arrieta landed with the Padres and was shelled in four starts. He’s been on the decline for several years.
  • Dylan Bundy (29): The 2020 season looked like a breakout, but Bundy followed with a 6.06 ERA and struggled enough to lose his rotation spot in Anaheim. He’s shown flashes of brilliance numerous times in the past, but the former No. 2 overall prospect just continues to struggle with the long ball.
  • Trevor Cahill (33): There was some bargain potential when the Bucs signed Cahill in Spring Training, but a series of calf strains held him to 37 innings with an ERA north of 6.00.
  • Zach Davies (29): Davies’ big 2020 season with the Padres looks like an outlier after his strikeout and walk rates both trended strongly in the wrong direction. Davies is durable and still young, but he had the fifth-worst K-BB% of any pitcher with at least 100 innings in 2021.
  • Danny Duffy (33): The longtime Royals lefty was excellent when healthy (2.51 ERA, 25.8% strikeout rate), but a pair of forearm injuries limited him to just 61 innings. Duffy never pitched for the Dodgers after being acquired in late July.
  • Mike Fiers (37): After pitching to a 4.03 ERA in 234 innings with the A’s from 2019-20, Fiers managed just 9 1/3 frames in 2021 due to an elbow sprain.
  • Mike Foltynewicz (30): Folty regained nearly three miles per hour on his fastball in 2021, averaging 94.2 mph. The results, however, did not improve for the 2018 All-Star, who posted an ugly 5.44 ERA in 139 innings. The Rangers could’ve controlled Foltynewicz through 2022 via arbitration, but they’ve already cut him loose.
  • Chi Chi Gonzalez (30): A first-round pick by Texas back in 2013, Gonzalez has spent the past three seasons with the Rockies, where he’s pitched to a 6.10 ERA and a dismal 5.7 K-BB%.
  • Matt Harvey (33): Harvey posted a 3.60 ERA through his first six starts and a 4.18 ERA over his final 10 starts. The problem? He allowed 51 runs through 45 innings in the dozen starts between that pair of encouraging bookends. All told, Harvey finished with a 6.27 ERA, a subpar 16.3% strikeout rate and a strong 6.4% walk rate.
  • Andrew Heaney (31): Heaney’s strikeout, walk, swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates are all excellent. Unfortunately, he was one of MLB’s most homer-prone arms in 2021 (2.01 HR/9). Heaney will probably get a solid one-year deal because of his age and ability to miss bats. He’ll be a popular buy-low target.
  • Michael Lorenzen (30): Lorenzen has been in line for a look in the Reds’ rotation on multiple occasions, but injuries have always intervened. That said, he’s angling for a rotation opportunity next spring and ought to get some consideration given a heater that averaged just shy of 97 (albeit in relief) and given a 3.48 ERA in 331 bullpen innings from 2016-20. Lorenzen is something of a unicorn, given that he also handles the bat well and has plus defensive tools in center field. If you’re purely rolling the dice on rotation options, they don’t come much more interesting than Lorenzen and his across-the-board skill set.
  • Matt Moore (33): Moore’s return from Japan ended with a 6.29 ERA in 73 innings of work. He lost his rotation spot early in the year and has yet to recapture his 2011-14 pre-Tommy John form.
  • James Paxton (33): Paxton, who missed most of 2020 with forearm and back injuries, pitched just one inning in his return to Seattle. He underwent Tommy John surgery in April. Paxton is one of the most talented pitchers in baseball, but he’s never made 30 starts in a season and has just 21 1/3 innings across the past two years.
  • Jose Quintana (33): The veteran Quintana posted an ERA north of 8.00 as a starter but notched a 4.18 ERA with a 28.3% strikeout rate and 7.5% walk rate in 28 relief innings. He could draw interest in both roles this winter.
  • Aaron Sanchez (29): A biceps injury limited Sanchez to 35 1/3 innings, during which time he walked 15 batters and plunked another four. His 90.4 mph average fastball was five miles per hour slower than it was at his peak. Sanchez had a 3.06 ERA, but the numbers beyond that weren’t pretty.
  • Noah Syndergaard (30): Syndergaard hoped to be back from 2020 Tommy John surgery by June, but setbacks shelved him until late September. He pitched just two innings. Lost season notwithstanding, the Mets could make a qualifying offer to Syndergaard, who has ace-caliber stuff when healthy.
  • Jose Urena (30): Non-tendered by the Marlins last winter, Urena pitched 100 2/3 innings with the Tigers but turned in a third straight season with an ERA over 5.00. A forearm strain cut his season short. He’s a minor league deal candidate this winter.
  • Vince Velasquez (30): Velasquez has tantalized the Phillies with impressive raw stuff for years but never been able to harness it as a consistently successful rotation member. Velasquez throw in the mid-90s, misses bats and won’t be 30 until next June. Plenty of teams will want to take aim at trying to “fix” him.

Players with 2022 Club/Player Options

  • Johnny Cueto, $22MM club option with $5MM buyout (36): Cueto looked like a fourth starter when he was healthy this year. Teams will view him as a veteran source of innings, but it’s hard to see the Giants picking up a net $17MM option.
  • Merrill Kelly, $4.25MM club option with $500K buyout (32): The D-backs have an easy call here after Kelly pitched to a 4.44 ERA in 158 innings. Kelly is an affordable source of innings at the back of the rotation and would command a fair bit of trade interest if Arizona goes that route.
  • Yusei Kikuchi, four-year, $66MM club option or $13MM player option (31): Kikuchi reportedly plans to exercise his $13MM player option once the Mariners decline their option to extend him at a set rate. Kikuchi was excellent for the first four months of the season or so, making the All-Star team and at one point looking like that extension option might be palatable for Seattle. He crashed hard over the final two months, however.
  • Carlos Martinez, $17MM club option with $500K buyout (30): This one’s a formality for the Cardinals, who’ll decline the option after watching Martinez pitch to a 6.95 ERA in 102 1/3 innings from 2020-21.
  • Wade Miley, $10MM club option with $1MM buyout (35): A net $9MM decision seems like an easy call for the Reds after Miley racked up 163 innings of 3.37 ERA ball. Cincinnati cut payroll last offseason, but it’d be a surprise to see them send Miley back to the market with such a reasonable 2022 option at their disposal.
  • Garrett Richards, $10MM club option with $1MM buyout (34): Richards was making good on his move to the bullpen before faceplanting in the final couple weeks of the season. With a 4.87 ERA in 136 2/3 innings, that option is likely to be bought out.

Previous installments in this series: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, center field, corner outfield

Blue Jays Expect To Raise Payroll In 2022

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The Blue Jays fell just short of achieving their goal of making the playoffs this season, but a 91-71 season has Toronto trending upward. That’s cold comfort for a fan base well-removed from its glory days, however. Following back-to-back World Series victories in 1992-93, Canada’s premier baseball club has made the playoffs just three times in the last 28 seasons – once during the shortened 2020 campaign that expanded the playoff field.

Still, the Jays appear on the cusp of sustained success that Canadians haven’t seen from their ball club since Joe Carter’s historic blast ended the 1993 season. Ownership seems to think so, too, as team president Mark Shapiro said today that, despite the COVID-related revenue losses, the payroll will continue to rise, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of sportsnet.ca (via Twitter). With deadline acquisition Jose Berrios just a year from free agency, and young stars like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette without long-term deals, the Jays will need to pony up significant dough to keep this core together and competitive long-term.

Cot’s Contracts put Toronto’s 2021 payroll bill to be around $154MM, tweets Nicholson-Smith, and it doesn’t sound as if the Jays are quite ready to consider exceeding the luxury tax. But there’s a fair amount of territory between the $210MM tax line (pending the new CBA) and the $154MM they spent in 2021. As of right now, they have an estimated $114MM projected for their 2022 roster, though that number included estimates for arbitration players and only includes contracts for those players under team control.

It’s no secret that Charlie Montoyo’s club has a couple of significant players heading towards free agency, namely second baseman Marcus Semien and starters Robbie Ray and Steven Matz. For what it’s worth, Shapiro didn’t shy away from saying they plan to try to bring those three back, per Nicholson-Smith (via Twitter). But he also made a point of saying that improving the club is the priority, not bringing back the same 91-team from 2021.

So is bringing all three back a  reasonable expectation? Shapiro should have clarity from ownership on their spending limits in a month or so, per MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson (via Twitter). Shapiro certainly seemed to prepare the fan base to say goodbye to at least one of those three, if not more.

Semien is probably the most popular, as well as the safest bet considering his track record, but he also plays a position where the Jays have some depth – both in the near-and-long-term. Cavan Biggio could slide over to the keystone from the hot corner, as could 26-year-old Santiago Espinal after posting a surprising 115 wRC+ in 246 plate appearances. That could make Semien expendable.

Not to mention, Semien is likely looking for a long-term deal after making good on his season-long showcase, and the Jays have fast-rising 19-year-old infielder Orelvis Martinez making his way to the Majors. Martinez certainly isn’t ready to replicate Semien’s 6.6 fWAR season, but he might offer enough promise to push the Jays to devote their resources elsewhere.

Ray and Matz are coming off monster years considering where they’d been as recently as 2020, but the Jays need more starting pitching. Even with Berrios in the fold and Alek Manoah having established himself in the rotation, they still need an arm or two to fill out the rotation. Maybe they feel comfortable enough with the strides made by either Ray or Matz to invest in them long-term, but they might want to see the price tag first, too.

Toronto isn’t limiting their spending just to the payroll, however, as they’ve also allocated some organizational resources to upgrading the fan experience at the ballpark. There will be a new scoreboard at the Rogers Centre next season, per Laura Armstrong of the Toronto Star. That doesn’t mean a future move is outside the realm of possibility, though it certainly would seem that the Jays will have at least a near-term future in their usual confines. While that leaves a fair amount of wiggle room for the future, even a full season back in the Rogers Centre would be more stability than they’ve had in years.

Farhan Zaidi Addresses Giants’ Rotation, Posey, Belt

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This morning, Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi addressed the club’s priorities ahead of what’s sure to be a busy offseason (via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area and Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic). Zaidi made clear the team regards its starting rotation as its “number one priority.” The Giants’ president also effectively confirmed they intend to bring back Buster Posey (by at least exercising his $22MM club option) and hope to re-sign Brandon Belt for what would be his twelfth season in San Francisco.

That the Giants intend to focus their offseason attention on addressing their needs in the rotation comes as no surprise. Presuming they pay Johnny Cueto’s $5MM buyout rather than pick up his $22MM option, four of the five members of a group that led the club to a 3.44 rotation ERA (Kevin Gausman, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood, and Cueto) are set to hit free agency. Only breakout star Logan Webb, who won’t reach free agency until at least 2026, remains under team control.

Zaidi made clear he hopes to bring back at least some of this year’s rotation, stating that “we want to keep as much of this group together as we can,” but he’ll face stiff competition for several of the arms in question. Gausman figures to be among the top starters on the market (alongside Max Scherzer, Robbie Ray, and Marcus Stroman) and won’t be eligible for the qualifying offer that might have scared off some suitors after he accepted the Giants’ QO last winter. DeSclafani (who made $6MM in 2021) and Wood ($3MM) are each in line to land much bigger salaries moving forward after each posted a bounceback year in his first season in the Golden City.

Zaidi’s confirmation that the club plans to keep Posey in the mix for 2022 is similarly unsurprising after the longtime Giants backstop put up a .304/.390/.499 line in 2021 after sitting out the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. The club’s intention to either pick up Posey’s 2022 option or sign him to an extension had also already been reported in August by MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, but Zaidi’s comments reiterate the commitment of Giants’ brass to their franchise catcher. Still, as Posey will be entering his age-35 season, any extension is likely to be on the shorter side, perhaps similar to the two-year pact reached with shortstop Brandon Crawford in June.

Belt put up a similarly excellent .274/.378/.597 line in 2021 (albeit in only 381 plate appearances), so the club will likely face some competition in re-signing the first baseman from two of its three 2010’s title teams. Zaidi told reporters today he’d already been in dialogue with Belt’s representation before the season’s end and they still hope to re-sign him.

After a 107-win season that ended in heartbreaking fashion, the Giants’ desire to run it back with a similar squad is certainly understandable. The Giants have largely bucked the youth wave sweeping the game, and whether or not manager Gabe Kapler can deliver the mix-and-match lineup magic of 2021 for another year remains to be seen. Crucially, so does their ability to bring back the bulk of a rotation that put them in position to lead the big leagues in wins.

Billy Beane Withdraws Name From Consideration For Mets’ Job

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4:50 pm: The Mets recently obtained permission from the A’s to speak with Beane to gauge his interest in the vacancy, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link). However, Beane informed Alderson at that point that he didn’t wish to pursue the position.

1:28 pm: Athletics executive vice president of baseball operations Billy Beane has with drawn his name from consideration for the Mets’ vacant president of baseball operations role, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (Twitter link). MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweeted earlier in the day that the Mets were quite pessimistic about their chances of luring Beane, and the Mets have also reportedly been denied permission to interview Brewers president David Stearns for what would be a lateral move. It’s the second straight year the Brewers have denied the Mets permission to interview Stearns.

The Mets’ early reported wishlist of Theo Epstein, Beane and Stearns has, in largely unsurprising fashion, fizzled out rather quickly. Epstein spoke with owner Steve Cohen earlier this month, after which reports indicated the two agreed there was no fit in place. Epstein stepped down as Cubs president of baseball operations this time last year and said shortly thereafter that while he did envision an eventual “third chapter” to his baseball operations career, he planned to be away from the rigors of a full-time baseball ops job for more than a year.

Both Beane and Stearns, meanwhile, are under contract with their current organizations through at least the 2022 season. Beane, in particular, would’ve been an ambitious target given that he’d need to divest his minority ownership stake in the A’s in order to take a job with the Mets, where former Beane mentor Sandy Alderson is the current team president.

There’s been a good bit of speculation regarding the Mets and that trio, but given Epstein’s comments last year and the contractual status of Stearns and Beane, all three have seemed like long shots. The initial composition of the Mets’ list suggests that they’re aiming for experienced, high-profiled executives to take up the president of baseball operations mantle in Queens, but it’s not yet clear who’ll be interviewed for the post.

Former Padres and D-backs general manager Josh Byrnes, currently a senior vice president of baseball operations with the Dodgers, has reportedly been the subject of internal discussions among the Mets. SNY’s Andy Martino suggested over the weekend that the Mets could look to Brewers GM Matt Arnold, Giants GM Scott Harris or Dodgers assistant GM Brandon Gomes.

Hiring either Arnold or Harris would require the Mets to offer a president of baseball operations title, as executives are generally only allowed to interview with other clubs in order to pursue a promotion (hence the Brewers denying permission to speak to Stearns). Gomes could conceivably be hired as a general manager, although Martino reported that the Dodgers could be prepared to promote Gomes to that position within their own organization if he draws interest elsewhere. Los Angeles does not currently have a general manager under president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and has not since then-GM Farhan Zaidi was hired away by the division-rival Giants.

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