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Zach Eflin To Undergo Knee Surgery

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Phillies starter Zach Eflin will require surgery to repair the patellar tendon in his right knee, the team announced this afternoon. The procedure is expected to keep Eflin out of game action for six-to-eight months, manager Joe Girardi told reporters (including Todd Zolecki of MLB.com). That leaves open the possibility he could be ready for Opening Day in 2022, but it’s far from certain that’ll be the case.

Eflin has been plagued by knee issues for a large chunk of his career. Late in 2016, the right-hander underwent surgery to repair the patellar tendons in both knees. Afterwards, Eflin told Zolecki the procedures corrected chronic issues that had plagued him for more than a decade. He avoided knee troubles for the next few years, but issues with the joint cropped back up this summer.

The Phils placed Eflin on the injured list on July 20 because of patellar tendinitis. He was activated from the IL five weeks later but was scratched from what would have been his first start because of continued discomfort, followed shortly thereafter by a positive COVID-19 test. While Eflin recovered from the virus rather quickly, his rehab was delayed by continued knee pain that’ll apparently require another surgery to correct.

Losing Eflin for the rest of the season (and potentially a portion of next year) is a substantial blow for a Phillies’ team that has struggled to find reliable back-of-the-rotation innings in recent years. Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola make for a fearsome top two, and Philadelphia picked up Kyle Gibson at the trade deadline to bolster the middle of the rotation. But Vince Velasquez has been up-and-down for essentially his entire career, and offseason pickups Matt Moore and Chase Anderson haven’t panned out. (Anderson has already been released).

Those depth issues have forced the Phillies to bump Ranger Suárez into a starting role. Suárez had a fantastic season working in relief and has fared well so far in his attempt to carry that success over to the rotation. Through seven starts, the left-hander has a 1.71 ERA despite some struggles with walks, thanks largely to an elite 63.1% ground-ball rate. Suárez figures to continue getting turns for the remainder of the year, but Philadelphia will have to patch things together on the mound when they need a fifth starter.

Eflin, unlike many of the Phillies’ other starters, has been a measure of consistency in recent years. Excepting a spike in last year’s shortened campaign, the 27-year-old has generally posted league average strikeout numbers. But he’s one of the game’s best at limiting walks and he keeps the ball on the ground, allowing him to be reliably effective in spite of his hitter-friendly home ballpark. Eflin has posted an ERA between 3.97 and 4.36 in each of the past four seasons, including a 4.17 mark over 105 2/3 innings this year.

Last offseason, Eflin and the Phillies agreed on a $4.45MM salary for 2021 to avoid arbitration. He’ll likely be in line for a moderate raise on that figure this winter, as he enters his third and final year of arbitration eligibility. Assuming his recovery proceeds as anticipated, Eflin’s projected salary would still seem reasonable for his typically solid production. But he could be a non-tender candidate if he’s not progressing on schedule come November, as he’d reach free agency after next season anyhow.

Solidifying the back of the rotation was likely to be an offseason priority for the Phillies even before news of Eflin’s surgery. That’ll be all the more true now, although there’s little recourse but to rely on the internal options for the remainder of this season as they hope to mount a playoff push. The Phillies enter play tonight two and a half games back of the Braves in the NL East and two games behind the Reds and Padres for the National League’s final Wild Card spot.

Rockies Activate Jon Gray, Promote Colton Welker

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The Rockies announced Wednesday that they’ve reinstated right-hander Jon Gray from the 10-day injured list and called up infielder Colton Welker for his Major League debut. Righty Antonio Santos was also recalled to the MLB roster. In a trio of corresponding moves, the Rox put right-hander Chi Chi Gonzalez on the 10-day injured list with a strained oblique, placed righty Robert Stephenson on the paternity list and optioned infielder Joshua Fuentes to Triple-A Albuquerque.

Gray returns to the club after a minimal stay on the injured list due to inflammation in his right forearm. It was a somewhat ominous diagnosis at the time, given the pronounced struggles Gray endured in the month of August, but a swift return is good news both for the club and for Gray as he nears his first foray into the free-agent market.

To this point in the season, Gray has posted a 4.13 ERA with a 23.1 percent strikeout rate, a 9.8 percent walk rate and a 49.9 percent ground-ball rate in 126 1/3 innings of work. Those solid numbers come in spite of a disastrous month of August, wherein Gray yielded a 6.55 ERA in 22 innings and lasted fewer than five innings in three of his five appearances.

Both Gray and the Rockies have made their mutual interest in some kind of extension known, though the recent injury hiccup could have some impact on the potential for a deal. At the very least, the Rockies likely want to see how Gray responds to 10 days of downtime before determining how to proceed. They reportedly intend to issue a qualifying offer to Gray, but it’s also possible the two sides work out a mutli-year deal at a lesser rate. Gray, of course, could also see what the market has to bear from other clubs upon receiving a QO from the Rockies. Players have 10 days to accept or reject their QOs, and they’re free to talk to other clubs during that time.

Turning to Welker, the 2016 fourth-rounder is getting his first look at the big league level. He’s long been ranked among the better prospects in a generally thin Rockies system, currently sitting eighth among their farmhands at FanGraphs, 20th at MLB.com and 23rd at Baseball America.

Welker has been limited to just 23 games and 93 plate appearances at the Triple-A level in 2021. He’s spent much of the year on the restricted list due to an 80-game suspension issued in May upon testing positive for a banned substance (dehydrochlormethyltestosterone). He’s one of several players to have pushed back against suspensions for trace amounts of the DHCMT long-term metabolite — picograms, in most cases — though to this point all suspensions under such circumstances have seemingly been upheld. (The Wall Street Journal’s Jared Diamond took an in-depth look at the situation last August.)

In his limited sample of work this season, Welker has been productive. He’s slashed .286/.378/.476 with three homers, five doubles, a triple and a 12.4 percent walk rate against a 20.7 percent strikeout rate. He’s spent all of his time at third base, though some scouting reports on Welker feel his range (or lack thereof) will eventually push him to first base. The Rockies don’t currently have a clear long-term answer at either corner infield position, so Welker seems likely to get a chance to prove he’s capable of seizing one of those two spots.

Rays Designate David Hess For Assignment

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The Rays have designated right-hander David Hess for assignment, placed outfielder Randy Arozarena on the paternity list and optioned righty Louis Head to Triple-A Durham, per a club announcement. That trio of moves clears a path for the previously reported promotion of top outfield prospect Josh Lowe and the reinstatement of first baseman Ji-Man Choi and righty Matt Wisler from the injured list.

It’s the third DFA of the season for Hess and his second with the Rays. The 28-year-old right-hander originally inked a minor league pact with Tampa Bay but was traded to the Marlins in early July and quickly immediately added to their MLB roster. The former Orioles righty had gotten out to a terrific start in Triple-A but was clobbered for seven runs in one inning at Coors Field in his second-to-last appearance with Miami, who designated him for assignment about a month after originally acquiring him.

Hess made his way back to the Rays on a new minor league deal, and he’s now been selected to the MLB roster and designated for assignment twice more. He didn’t get into a game the first time but did pitch two innings in his most recent call-up. Things didn’t go well, however, as he surrendered six runs in a pair of innings against the Red Sox. Because of the nature of that DFA carousel, Hess was pitching for just the fourth time in a span of nearly four weeks during his lone appearance in this most recent Rays stint.

On the whole, Hess has surrendered 22 runs in 20 big league innings this season. Most of the damage has come in that pair of ugly outings, but it’s still not a surprise to see a pitcher with that level of cumulative results bumped from the 40-man roster. He’ll now be placed on outright waivers or release waivers in the next couple of days. If he goes unclaimed, the Rays can assign him back to Triple-A Durham, where he’s pitched to a 3.28 ERA with a 27.2 percent strikeout rate and a 5.4 percent walk rate in 35 2/3 frames of relief work this year.

Looking to the rest of the Rays’ moves, Lowe looks to be a short-term replacement for Arozarena, who can miss up to three games. Brief or not, the promotion will give Rays fans a glimpse at the future, as Lowe is widely viewed as a long-term building block in the outfield.

Head, like Hess, has been riding the shuttle between the big leagues and Triple-A with dizzying frequency. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times observes that this marks the staggering tenth time that Head has been optioned to Triple-A this season. Despite being bandied about between Durham and St. Petersburg, he’s held his own against MLB lineups, pitching to a 2.93 ERA with a 26-to-9 K/BB ratio in 27 2/3 innings of relief. Head has similarly strong numbers in Triple-A, and while it’s surely frustrating to be unable to secure a long-term spot in the bullpen, he’s a 31-year-old who made his MLB debut this season, so even the brief and inconsistent days of Major League service time and pay are a welcome turn of events.

Choi, who’s hitting .250/.364/.435 in 236 plate appearances, missed a bit more than two weeks with a strained hamstring. He also missed time in June with a groin strain. Wisler missed a similar chunk of time with a finger injury on his pitching hand. He’s been excellent since the Rays acquired him from the Giants, pitching to a 1.98 ERA with a 32.7 percent strikeout rate and a 3.8 percent walk rate in 27 1/3 innings.

Rays To Promote Josh Lowe

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The Rays are calling up top outfield prospect Josh Lowe for his Major League debut, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan (Twitter thread). Passan adds that it might not be a long-term stay for Lowe in his first big league call-up, Rays fans will apparently still get a look at yet another well-regarded farmhand late in the ’21 season. Lowe is already on the 40-man roster, so the Rays only need to make room on the active roster to accommodate him.

Josh Lowe | USA Today Sports

Lowe, 23, was the No. 13 overall pick in the 2016 draft and has ridden a breakout season in Triple-A to a widely regarded status as one of baseball’s 100 best prospects. He’s posted a .282/.369/.540 batting line (good for a 138 wRC+) while connecting on 21 home runs, 24 doubles and two triples. He’s also gone a perfect 24-for-24 in stolen-base attempts on the season. It’s been a strong follow-up to Lowe’s quality showing at the Double-A level in 2019, when he hit .252/.341/.443 (128 wRC+) in a very pitcher-friendly setting. He and his older brother, Nate, were both in the Rays’ system before the team traded the latter to the Rangers this past offseason.

Keith Law of The Athletic ranked the younger Lowe as baseball’s No. 31 overall prospect on his July 22nd list, calling him a “plus center fielder with patience and power.” Lowe lands No. 40 overall on Eric Longenhagen’s current rankings at FanGraphs, and he was named the No. 76 and No. 89 prospect in baseball on the respective midseason rankings at MLB.com and Baseball America. There are concerns about Lowe’s strikeout tendencies — he’s fanned at a 26.6 percent clip in his minor league career and has matched that level at Triple-A in 2021 — but he also draws walks at a strong clip (12.4 percent this year).

Tampa Bay’s outfield is largely set at the moment with Austin Meadows, Kevin Kiermaier and Randy Arozarena as the go-to options and both Manuel Margot and Jordan Luplow as right-handed options off the bench. Lowe would bring another left-handed-hitting option to the mix, joining Meadows and Kiermaier — the former coming off his worst month of the season at the plate and the latter coming off his best. Lowe seems likely to be just one of a couple moves, as the Rays could also use some additional infield depth on the bench at the moment.

There may not be a long-term opportunity for Lowe in the outfield at the moment, but it seems likely that he’ll have such an opportunity before too long. How they’ll go about facilitating that remains to be seen, but Kiermaier’s name has come up in trade rumblings for years. The 2022 season will be the final guaranteed season of his six-year, $53.5MM contract in Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, both Margot and Meadows will be up for arbitration raises this offseason. Meadows will enter his first of three arb seasons in 2022, while Margot will be owed a final raise on his current $3.4MM salary before reaching free agency in the 2022-23 offseason. A trade isn’t a foregone conclusion, of course. Designated hitter Nelson Cruz is a free agent at season’s end, and his departure could open the door for Meadows to slide back into a primary designated hitter role, further opening some outfield reps for Lowe (and others).

However it shakes out, the Rays are again on the cusp of bringing yet another high-end talent to the big leagues — one who’ll potentially give the team another cost-effective player to build around as some of the current mainstays on the roster inch closer to free agency or arbitration salaries that ownership deems untenable. There’s always some degree of year-to-year churn on the Rays’ roster, but the consistent development of quality young talent like Lowe has made it sustainable for years now.

From a service-time standpoint, Lowe is already controllable through at least the 2027 season. Depending on how much time he spends in the Majors this year and how the team handles him early in the 2022 season, that could be pushed back to 2028. Under the current system, Lowe would’ve needed to spend 15 days in the minors next year to push that free-agent trajectory back to 2028. That number would grow by one for every day Lowe spends on the MLB roster between now and season’s end. Of course, we don’t know for certain what the arbitration system and service will look like moving forward. Both are hot-button issues in ongoing collective bargaining talks between Major League Baseball and the Players Association, and it’d come as little surprise to see some notable overhaul the current service-time/arbitration structure.

Mariners Shut Down Kyle Lewis For Rest Of Season

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The Mariners are shutting down center fielder Kyle Lewis for the remainder of the season, the club informed reporters (including Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times). Lewis recently suffered a bone bruise in his injured right knee.

It’s not a particularly surprising development, as the team revealed last week that his rehab had been halted because of soreness in his knee. Still, it’s surely a disappointing outcome for player and team alike. Lewis had been hoping to embark on a minor league rehab assignment and make it back this year. And with Seattle three games back of the Red Sox in the race for the American League’s final Wild Card spot, they could’ve used a late-season jolt from the reigning AL Rookie of the Year.

Given Lewis’ long history of trouble with the joint, the club’s caution is understandable though. The young outfielder tore his ACL not long after being drafted in 2016 and continued to be bothered by intermittent knee issues over the next couple seasons. He finally seemed to put them behind him by 2019, when he stayed healthy over a full season at Triple-A and earned his first big league promotion that September. He built off the promise he showed that year during the shortened 2020 campaign, when he hit .262/.364/.437 en route to the aforementioned Rookie of the Year selection.

Lewis’ knee troubles unfortunately cropped up again this year. He missed the first few weeks of the season with a bone bruise in the area. After returning to log a little more than a month’s worth of action, he suffered a meniscus tear in early June. Coupled with his recent setback, those injuries conspired to end his season after just 147 plate appearances.

Center field has been a problem area for the M’s since they lost Lewis. Top prospect Jarred Kelenic has gotten a lot of run there lately, but he’s struggled in his first taste of the majors. The 22-year-old is hitting just .158/.238/.281 over his first 281 MLB plate appearances. Even if Lewis had made it back, Seattle could’ve also bumped Kelenic to left field and displaced the struggling Jake Bauers/Dylan Moore pairing. Instead, they’re left to rely on those underperforming options as they hope to track down Boston or the Yankees over the season’s final four weeks.

Lewis will turn his attention to next Spring Training. The 26-year-old figures to again assume his role as the Mariners’ regular center fielder if healthy. Seattle still controls Lewis for four more seasons; he’ll be eligible for arbitration for the first time during the 2022-23 offseason.

White Sox Sign Kevin McCarthy

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The White Sox have signed reliever Kevin McCarthy to a minor league contract, according to the transactions log at MLB.com. He has been assigned to Triple-A Charlotte.

McCarthy pitched in the majors with the Royals every season from 2016-20. He has never gotten swings and misses at the rate one might expect from a reliever, but the sinkerballer has always racked up grounders in bunches and had a couple seasons where he was successful at keeping runs off the board. Over 191 2/3 big league innings, McCarthy owns a 3.80 ERA with a 58.7% ground-ball rate that dwarfs the 43.2% league average for bullpen arms.

Kansas City outrighted McCarthy off the 40-man roster last winter and he elected free agency. The 29-year-old latched on with the Red Sox on a minor league deal and spent most of the year with Triple-A Worcester. He struggled to a 7.13 ERA over 35 1/3 frames, although McCarthy’s peripherals (20.6% strikeout rate, 3.5% walk percentage, 49.6% grounder rate) were far better than that run prevention figure might suggest. The Red Sox released McCarthy last month.

Because Chicago didn’t sign McCarthy until after August 31, he won’t be eligible for the team’s postseason roster. He’ll be on hand as high minors relief depth for the regular season’s final couple weeks instead. If the White Sox don’t add McCarthy to the 40-man roster before the end of the season, he’ll qualify for minor league free agency again this winter.

John Curtiss Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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Brewers reliever John Curtiss recently underwent Tommy John surgery, general manager David Stearns told reporters (including Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). The right-hander is not expected to return until 2023.

That’s not especially surprising news, as Curtiss tore the UCL in his throwing elbow during an appearance last month. While Curtiss was hoping to avoid a surgical procedure, further evaluation evidently deemed it necessary. It’s an unfortunate way to end what had been a productive season, as the 28-year-old pitched to a 3.45 ERA over 44 1/3 innings split between the Marlins and Brew Crew. While Curtiss’s 23.5% strikeout rate is essentially league average, he did well to avoid walks and home runs. That solid showing prompted Milwaukee to trade catching prospect Payton Henry to land Curtiss at the trade deadline, but he blew out after just six appearances with his new team.

Curtiss is already on the 60-day injured list, where he’ll remain for the rest of the season. The Brewers can keep Curtiss on the 60-day IL all of next season, as well, but they’ll need to reinstate him to the 40-man roster over the winter. Curtiss remains under team control through 2025 and won’t be eligible for arbitration until the 2022-23 offseason.

Stearns added that fellow reliever Justin Topa is going for a second opinion on his own elbow injury. Topa, who has already undergone Tommy John surgery twice in his career, was placed on the 60-day injured list over the weekend due to elbow discomfort. (Jandel Gustave returned from the COVID-19 in a corresponding move). That ended Topa’s season, although it remains to be seen whether he’ll have a chance of being ready for Spring Training in 2022.

Adam Wainwright Intends To Pitch In 2022

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The Cardinals have gotten fantastic work from Adam Wainwright for the bulk of his career, and that’s again been the case in 2021. Despite having just turned 40 years old, the veteran right-hander has been one of the better pitchers in the National League. With no signs of diminishing effectiveness, Wainwright intends to return for the 2022 season, he tells Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat (Twitter link).

Wainwright was a multi-time All-Star and Cy Young award contender at his peak from 2009-14, but he looked to have lost some effectiveness in the immediate aftermath of an April 2015 Achilles tear. The veteran had his worst four seasons from 2016-19, looking as if he’d settled in as more a competent back-of-the-rotation arm than the ace-caliber hurler he’d been earlier in his career.

That changed last season, when Wainwright posted a 3.15 ERA over 65 2/3 innings. Because of the truncated nature of the 2020 campaign, it seemed easy to write that level of performance off as a sample size blip and expect Wainwright to return to something closer to the cumulative 4.58 ERA he’d managed over the prior four seasons. Even the Cardinals seemed a bit apprehensive about buying completely into Wainwright’s 2020 resurgence, as he re-signed on a lower-cost $8MM guarantee last winter.

It’s impossible to dismiss Wainwright now, though, as he’s been excellent over a full season’s worth of work. He owns a 2.91 ERA across 176 innings, the sixteenth-lowest mark among the 104 pitchers with 100+ innings pitched. Wainwright’s 22.6% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk percentage aren’t far off his best marks in those regards, and he’s induced ground-balls at a solid 46.8% clip. While he doesn’t have overpowering raw stuff, Wainwright has generally succeeded at avoiding damaging contact with pinpoint command of his sinker and more liberal usage of his signature curveball, as Ben Clemens of FanGraphs recently explored.

Wainwright is again scheduled to reach free agency this offseason, although it’s hard to envision him landing anywhere other than St. Louis. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported last week that the club intended to present a one-year extension offer to Wainwright in the near future. And after bringing back franchise catcher Yadier Molina for one final run in 2022, it stands to reason the St. Louis front office is equally motivated to work out an agreement to keep Wainwright in the fold for the seventeenth consecutive season.

Giants Claim Jake Jewell From Dodgers

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The Giants announced they’ve claimed reliever Jake Jewell off waivers from the Dodgers and optioned him to Triple-A Sacramento. It’s the second time Jewell has changed organizations in recent weeks, as Los Angeles just added him from the Cubs at the end of August. He spent all of 2020 in the Giants system but didn’t pitch because of the canceled minor league season and ultimately elected free agency over the offseason.

Jewell didn’t make a big league appearance with the Dodgers, as Los Angeles immediately optioned him to Triple-A after claiming him. He did make ten appearances with Chicago this season, allowing twelve runs (eleven earned) over ten innings with ten strikeouts and five walks. The 28-year-old had been far more productive with the Cubs’ top affiliate in Iowa, though, where he posted a 2.78 ERA over 32 1/3 innings with a quality 27.1% strikeout rate and an average 10.1% walk percentage.

The right-hander also logged some big league action with the 2018-19 Angels. Altogether, he owns a 7.75 ERA over 38 1/3 frames at the MLB level. Jewell is in his final minor league option year, meaning the Giants can keep him in Triple-A for the remainder of the season but would have to either carry him on the active roster next year or risk losing him themselves. Because Jewell was acquired after August 31, he is not eligible to participate in the postseason. He can, however, try to help San Francisco hold off his former club in a tight NL West race over the regular season’s final few weeks.

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