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Latest On Jake Odorizzi

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While the 2021 season is slated to begin just a month from now, free-agent righty Jake Odorizzi is “thought” to be willing to wait further into Spring Training for the right offer rather than drop his asking price now, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Odorizzi has reportedly been seeking a three-year deal that will pay him in the $13-15MM range annually.

As Heyman notes, there’s some precedent for this type of approach working out for the pitcher. Kyle Lohse netted a three-year, $33MM deal with the Brewers late in Spring Training 2013, and Alex Cobb landed a four-year deal worth $57MM with the Orioles late in Spring Training 2018. Jake Arrieta also agreed to a three-year deal midway through Spring Training back in 2018, landing a $75MM guarantee with the Phillies.

Of course, that Lohse deal is now eight years old, and Cobb’s contract was broadly considered to be a surprise. It’s tough to base expectations on that trio of solid deals, as we’ve seen at least as many pitchers have to alter their expectations and take a one-year pact in recent years: Ervin Santana with the Braves, Lance Lynn with the Twins and Dallas Keuchel’s  midseason deal with the Braves are among the examples.

None of that is to say that Odorizzi’s quest for a multi-year deal is unreasonable. His reported asking price falls roughly in line with what we expected him to sign back at the beginning of the offseason, and he’s a more desirable free agent than either Lohse or Cobb was at the time of those late multi-year deals referenced by Heyman. Odorizzi stood out as one of the best free-agent starters on the 2020-21 market — arguably the second-best behind Trevor Bauer (particularly once Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman accepted qualifying offers).

It’s been a very tough winter for the non-Bauer tier of free-agent starters, however. Only three have landed multi-year pacts: a two-year, $18MM deal for Mike Minor with the Royals; a three-year, $23MM deal for Taijuan Walker with the Mets (announced as a two-year deal with a player option); and a two-year, $4.75MM deal for KBO returnee Chris Flexen with the Mariners. Bauer, Charlie Morton, Corey Kluber and Drew Smyly are the only four starters to receive annual values exceeding $10MM, and of that group, only Bauer did so on a multi-year deal.

Major League teams have been reluctant to spend for much of the winter. Some clubs that have spent money (Twins, Red Sox, Nationals) have been primarily willing to do so on one-year deals.

Circumstances could certainly change, and that could be what Odorizzi and his representatives are hoping for at this point. An untimely injury on a contending club’s pitching staff could create a need and jumpstart his market, and it’s possible that as teams get better ideas about the number of fans they’ll be able to welcome to the park in 2021, owners could green-light some late expenditures that weren’t previously expected.

Odorizzi was limited to just 13 2/3 innings last season, which has surely hindered his market, although his camp can rightly point to the fact that none of those health issues were arm-related. He missed the first few weeks of the season with an intercostal (ribcage) strain and quickly went back on the IL when he was struck in the chest by a comeback liner upon his return. He later dealt with a blister that forced him back on the shelf.

Odorizzi is by no means an ace, but prior to last year’s slate of rather fluky injuries, he was a durable mid-rotation cog. He averaged better than 30 starts per season from 2014-19 and worked to a combined 3.88 ERA (4.08 FIP, 4.19 SIERA) with above-average strikeout and walk rates (23 percent and 8.2 percent, respectively) through more than 1000 innings. In a vacuum, he’d be an improvement for nearly any starting staff in the game, but the disconnect between his asking price and the market’s offerings apparently continues to linger.

Phillies Likely Done Spending For Now

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The Phillies payroll is roughly where it was last year – at least as long as they entertain rostering Brandon Kintzler and Tony Watson on opening day. A lot remains to be seen, but it’s certainly a possibility that the pair of veteran relievers makes the team. In that case, they would both make $3MM, pushing their luxury tax payroll close to $208MM, writes the Athletic’s Matt Gelb. Wanting to leave a touch of breathing room under the tax for an in-season acquisition, the Phillies are likely done adding Major League players. Whether the Phillies should trifle over surpassing the luxury tax by a million or two is certainly worth the question, but it’s not a level of spending they’ve breached in the past.

If they are using that line as a soft cap,  there won’t be much flexibility even for a mid-season acquisition. Clearing close to $6MM by not putting Kintzler and Watson on the roster might be appealing for that cause, but considering the disaster that was their 2020 bullpen, they may prefer having those veteran hands at the ready. Kintzler was the Marlins closer last year with a 2.24 ERA over 24 1/3 innings. Watson logged a 2.50 ERA across 18 innings for the Giants. Both have been steady Eddies for the past decade out of the bullpen.

Watson, for his part, fits a particular need for the Phillies. Southpaw Ranger Suárez is behind in his preparation by a couple of weeks because of visa issues, notes Gelb. Suárez would be one of the lefties competing for a spot in the bullpen. If Suárez isn’t ready for opening day, Watson would be in competition with JoJo Romero for deputy southpaw behind nominal sheriff José Alvarado. The 24-year-old Romero had a 7.59 ERA in 12 appearances last year. There are plenty of reason to be bullish on Romero, however. He had a 3.66 FIP and minuscule 4.3 percent walk rate, suggesting better times may be ahead for the crowd-pleasing southpaw. Still, Watson is by far the most experienced arm with a 2.80 ERA/3.61 FIP in 591 career innings.

Damon Jones, Kyle Dohy, Cristopher Sánchez, and Bailey Falter are the other left-handers on the Phillies 40-man. None of the four have experience at the Major League level, however.

Quick Hits: Springer, Conforto, Straw, Greinke

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The Mets were a popular pick for outfielder George Springer before he signed a six-year, $150MM contract with the Blue Jays in January. Team president Sandy Alderson “suggested” on Monday that the Mets were willing to sign Springer for five years, not six, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. Alderson added that New York likely wouldn’t have been able to extend outfielder Michael Conforto had it signed Springer. “At some point, even Steve Cohen runs out of money,” Alderson said of the team’s owner. Conforto, who turned 28 today, is three years younger than Springer and coming off an even better season at the plate. He’s due to become a free agent next winter, but the Mets expect to begin talks on an extension sometime soon.

  • With Springer no longer in Houston, the Astros appear likely to turn to Myles Straw at center field to open the season. If the Straw experiment doesn’t work out, though, it’s probable that Chas McCormick will be their fallback plan at the position, Jake Kaplan of The Athletic writes. The 25-year-old has a better chance to make the team than veteran outfielder Steven Souza Jr., whom the Astros signed to a minor league deal, as he’s already on their 40-man roster and capable of playing center, Kaplan notes. McCormick impressed during his most recent minors action in 2019, when he slashed .269/.386/.432 with 14 home runs and 16 stolen bases in 448 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A.
  • Sticking with the Astros, ace Zack Greinke is entering the last season of his contract – his age-37 campaign – but is not thinking retirement, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com relays. Based on his performance in 2020, Greinke has plenty left in the tank. Although he posted a 4.03 ERA – one of the highest figures of his potential Hall of Fame career – Greinke registered a better 3.72 SIERA with a 24.5 percent strikeout rate and an elite 3.3 percent walk rate. Greinke also induced a fair amount of weak contact, evidenced in part by the 86.8 mph exit velocity hitters mustered against him.

Checking In On Last Season’s Worst Bullpens

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A bad bullpen can play a major role in destroying a team’s playoff hopes, as we saw with last year’s Phillies. They finished a game behind the National League’s lowest-seeded playoff team, in part because their relief pitchers could not perform. Here’s how the Phillies and the game’s other four worst bullpens from 2020 (based on ERA) have tried to improve themselves since last season ended….

Phillies (7.06 ERA, 13.1 K-BB percentage):

  • The Phillies might have broken their playoff drought last year if not for a bullpen that didn’t get much high-end production out of any of its regulars. New Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and general manager Sam Fuld have gone to work to better the unit, having added several veterans – Archie Bradley, Jose Alvarado, Brandon Kintzler, Tony Watson, Chase Anderson, Hector Rondon, Neftali Feliz and Sam Coonrod, to name some – early in their regime. Some of those players aren’t on guaranteed contracts and will have to fight for spots this spring, but there’s no shortage of experience or success among most of the group.

Rockies (6.77 ERA, 8.8 K-BB percentage):

  • Daniel Bard earned NL Comeback Player of the Year honors as a member of the Rockies, and Yency Almonte also put together a very good 2020. They’ll stick around this season, though no other returning Rockies relievers recorded good numbers over a solid amount of innings last year. There is some potential for the team’s bullpen production to get better in 2021, though. Mychal Givens, who has typically been a quality reliever, struggled in a mere 9 1/3 innings last season; Carlos Estevez, one of the Rockies’ most reliable relievers in 2019, put up an ERA north of 7.00 in 24 frames; and newcomer Robert Stephenson, whom the Rox acquired from the Reds earlier this offseason, was effective two years ago before falling off a cliff in 2020.

Mariners (5.92 ERA, 7.8 K-BB percentage):

  • In light of last year’s issues, general manager Jerry Dipoto came into the offseason saying he wanted three to four new relievers. True to his word, Dipoto added to the Mariners’ relief corps with the likes of Rafael Montero, Keynan Middleton and Will Vest (Rule 5 pick), though the team can’t necessarily count on anyone from that group to fix its issues in 2021.

Red Sox (5.79 ERA, 13.2 K-BB percentage):

  • The Red Sox made an unexpected trade with the enemy Yankees when they acquired righty Adam Ottavino from New York in a January salary dump. Ottavino, who will count $9MM against Boston’s luxury-tax bill in 2021, had a rough time last season, but the 35-year-old has typically been a solid option. Along with Ottavino, Hirokazu Sawamura (a former Nippon Professional Baseball hurler whom the Red Sox signed for a two-year, $3MM deal), Matt Andriese and Rule 5 selection Garrett Whitlock are newcomers to the group.

Marlins (5.50 ERA, 6.7 K-BB percentage):

MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The Padres?

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The Padres and their fans endured a long period of suffering, but the club finally returned to relevance in 2020. With 37 wins in 60 games, the Padres posted the sport’s third-best record, broke a 13-year playoff drought and advanced to the NLDS, where they lost to the division-rival Dodgers. While the Dodgers, who went on to win the World Series, are the favorites to reign over the NL again in 2021, the Padres look as if they’ll put up an even bigger fight this year.

Not content to continue playing second fiddle to Los Angeles, San Diego and general manager A.J. Preller have been extremely aggressive in trying to improve their roster since the Dodgers crushed their championship hopes last fall. Dating back to then, the Padres have used trades and free agency to add a slew of notable names – Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove, Ha-Seong Kim, Mark Melancon, Victor Caratini and Keone Kela lead the way.

Darvish and Dinelson Lamet give the Padres two starters who were in NL Cy Young contention last season; meanwhile Snell’s a former AL Cy Young winner, Musgrove has shown that he’s a legitimate mid-rotation type and Chris Paddack, although he struggled last year, looked like a high-end starter just two years ago. If anything goes haywire with that group, the Padres could get help from prospects such as MacKenzie Gore (MLB.com’s sixth-ranked farmhand) and Adrian Morejon.

Offensively, Kim and Caratini should help a unit that finished third in the majors in runs last year, when the all-world left side of the infield of third baseman Manny Machado and shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. led the charge. They’re still around, as are infielder Jake Cronenworth, first baseman Eric Hosmer, outfielders Trent Grisham and Wil Myers – who all enjoyed terrific years.

As is the case with their starting staff and offense, the Padres’ bullpen looks as if it has the potential to be a formidable group in 2021. However, they’ll need more from holdovers such as Emilio Pagan, Craig Stammen and Tim Hill. And the Padres may miss Trevor Rosenthal, a late-season acquisition who left for the Athletics in free agency, but the Melancon and Kela additions ought to help. They’ll join holdovers Drew Pomeranz and Pierce Johnson among the club’s preferred late-game choices.

All said, there isn’t much (anything?) to dislike about the Padres’ roster. The biggest roadblock may be that they’re still stuck in a division with the Dodgers, but PECOTA nonetheless projects a 95-win season for the Padres in 2021. How do you think they’ll fare?

(Poll link for app users)

Minor MLB Transactions: 3/1/21

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Catching up on the latest minor league transactions…

Newest Moves

  • The Yankees announced that they’ve outrighted outfielder Greg Allen to Triple-A. Allen, whom the Yankees designated last week, will remain in MLB camp. The Yankees acquired Allen from San Diego in January, but he lost his roster spot when the team signed reliever Justin Wilson. Allen, 27, has batted .239/.298/.343 with eight home runs and 32 stolen bases in 618 plate appearances between the Indians and Padres.

Earlier Today

  • The Diamondbacks announced that right-hander Keury Mella has been outrighted to Triple-A, and assigned to the team’s Major League spring camp.  Mella was designated for assignment earlier this week.  The righty has been action in each of the last four MLB seasons, though only for 19 games and 27 innings with the Reds and D’Backs.  After signing a minor league deal with Arizona last winter, Mella had a 1.80 ERA over 10 frames of work, with an even 10 strikeouts against three walks.
  • The Red Sox outrighted Marcus Walden to Triple-A after the right-hander cleared waivers, and Walden is remaining in Boston’s big league spring camp.  Walden was designated for assignment last week to create a roster spot for the newly-acquired Marwin Gonzalez.  A veteran of three MLB seasons and 106 innings in the Show, much of Walden’s experience (78 innings over 70 games) came during a workhorse of a 2019 season, as he posted a 3.81 ERA and 23.24K% out of the Red Sox bullpen.  Walden struggled badly last year, however, with a 9.45 ERA over 13 1/3 innings and almost as many walks (nine) as strikeouts (10).

Lucas Giolito On Potential Extension

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After a difficult start to his career, White Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito established himself as a bona fide top-of-the-rotation starter over the previous two seasons. The 26-year-old now looks like a long-term cornerstone for the franchise, though it doesn’t appear either side has aggressively pursued a contract extension.

“There haven’t really been discussions about an extension, which is fine,” Giolito, a CAA Sports client, told James Fegan of The Athletic. “I think the organization knows that I value myself. I know kind of what I’m worth.”

Fortunately for the White Sox, they’re in no imminent danger of losing Giolito, who has three years of arbitration control remaining. However, they have shown in recent years that they’re willing to lock up their core players for the long haul. To name a few prominent examples, the team has signed shortstop Tim Anderson, third baseman Yoan Moncada, and outfielders Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert to extensions dating back to 2017. Giolito certainly ranks up there with that group in terms of his importance to the club.

This year, Giolito will earn $4.15MM, which is a major bargain for what he has brought to the table dating back to 2019. While Giolito was one of the worst starters in baseball in 2018, during which he logged a 6.13 ERA/5.37 SIERA in 173 1/3 innings, the light bulb has since gone on for the former star prospect. Giolito notched a 3.43 ERA/3.55 SIERA with a 32.7 percent strikeout rate against an 8.6 percent walk rate across 249 innings over the prior two seasons, and he finished seventh in the American League Cy Young balloting a year ago.

NL Central Notes: Lauer, Cubs, Hoyer, Pirates

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The shoulder impingement that slowed Eric Lauer last March was more serious than reported at the time, as the Brewers southpaw tells MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy and other reporters that there was actually a tear to the shoulder capsule of his throwing arm, as later tests revealed.  The shutdown allowed time for Lauer to recover physically, but he then missed two weeks of Summer Camp on quarantine after being in close contact with someone who was COVID-19 positive.

It all added up to a forgettable debut season for Lauer in Milwaukee, as he was rocked for a 13.09 ERA over just 11 innings.  Acquired along with Luis Urias for Zach Davies and Trent Grisham in a November 2019 deal with the Padres, Lauer is looking to live up to his end of the trade return by matching or bettering his past numbers (4.40 ERA, 20.6K%) over 261 2/3 innings with San Diego in 2018-19.  Lauer does have minor league options remaining, however, which could put him in line for some shuttling back and forth from Triple-A as the Brewers mix and match their starting pitchers to keep everyone’s arm fresh.

More from the NL Central…

  • The Cubs’ payroll situation has been a major focus of the offseason, but president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer is “confident” the team would be able to add salary for midseason additions “if we play well and there’s clear things we need to do to add to the team.”  As Hoyer told The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney and other reporters, however, much will depend on such uncertain revenue streams as the number of fans the team will be permitted to allow into Wrigley Field.  The Cubs opened the winter in clear cost-cutting mode, culminating in the trade that sent Yu Darvish to the Padres, and Hoyer admitted that “we were probably on the more pessimistic side of things” in terms of payroll in the wake of the 2020 season.  More recently, a modest spending spree for players on one- or two-year contracts does indicate some willingness on the team’s part to stretch the payroll, or as Hoyer put it, they became “more optimistic or less pessimistic” about their spending capacity.
  • The Pirates overhauled their rotation in the offseason, and while they have a provisional starting five in place, most or all of the arms competing for jobs will probably end up getting starts this season, The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel writes.  Apart from Tyler Anderson, none of the Bucs’ other starting candidates have pitched more than 157 1/3 innings in a season, so there will be plenty of need for multiple hurlers to cover innings as pitchers rebuild arm strength in the wake of the shortened 2020 season.  “I think we’re talking about like 10 or 11 [pitchers],” Pirates pitching coach Oscar Marin said.  Considering how the Pirates remain open to trade ideas, it’s very possible that even more pitchers will be needed should the club move a veteran arm or two at some point prior to the trade deadline.

Royals, Hunter Dozier Agree To Four-Year Extension

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TODAY: The Royals have officially announced Dozier’s extension.  The Athletic’s Alec Lewis (Twitter links) has the financial breakdown — Dozier will get a $1MM signing bonus, $2.25MM this season, $4.5MM in 2022, $7.25MM in 2023, $9MM in 2024, and there is a $1MM buyout on the $10MM club option for 2025.  There are multiple escalators involved, including $1MM bonuses for various awards.

FEB. 28, 9:51AM: Dozier and the Royals are in agreement on a four-year, $25MM guarantee with a $10MM option for 2025, per Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). If Dozier reaches all available escalators and bonuses, it could max out at $49MM, Passan reports.

9:35AM: While the deal isn’t yet complete, there’s “optimism” it’ll get over the finish line, per Alec Lewis and Andy McCullough of the Athletic (via Twitter). If finalized, the guarantee is expected to land in the $25MM range, report Lewis and McCullough. The 2025 option would be worth $10MM, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).

8:59AM: The Royals are finalizing a four-year contract extension with Hunter Dozier, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (Twitter link). The proposed deal would also contain a club option for 2025, per Murray. Dozier is a client of The L. Warner Companies, Inc.

As a player with three-plus years of MLB service, the 29-year-old wasn’t set to reach free agency until after the 2023 season. Rather than proceed year-by-year through arbitration, the parties are locking in some cost certainty over the next three seasons while lengthening their relationship by at least one year. The deal will buy out Dozier’s first year of would-be free agency, while the club option adds a second additional season of team control.

Despite being selected eighth overall out of Stephen F. Austin University in 2013, Dozier had something of a slow ascent through the minors. He made his MLB debut as a September call-up in 2016, but it wasn’t until the middle of the 2018 season that he had established himself as a big league regular.

Dozier struggled down the stretch as a rookie but seemed to break out as a middle-of-the-order bat in his sophomore season. The right-handed hitter popped 26 home runs and hit .279/.348/.522 across 586 plate appearances in 2019. Dozier’s batted ball metrics reinforced that power output. His 91.1 MPH average exit velocity placed him in the 83rd percentile league-wide; Dozier’s hard contact and barrel rates were similarly impressive. A higher than average 25.3% strikeout rate and .339 BABIP hinted at some potential regression in future seasons, but Dozier’s power and decent plate discipline positioned him as an above-average offensive performer nonetheless.

The shortened 2020 season, however, proved a difficult one for Dozier. That was the case for plenty of players, but Dozier was one of the players most directly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. He tested positive for the coronavirus last July and was forced to start the season on the injured list. Upon his return, he lacked the same power he’d shown the season before. Whether because of his bout with COVID-19 or merely due to the season’s small sample size (he tallied just 186 plate appearances), the Royals clearly feel Dozier’s .228/.344/.392 line was anomalous.

Regaining his footing at the plate is critical for Dozier, who’s rather limited defensively. He broke in as a third baseman, but defensive metrics panned his work at the hot corner from 2018-19. After signing Maikel Franco last offseason, Kansas City mostly limited Dozier to first base and the corner outfield in 2020. Franco is back in free agency, possibly bumping Dozier back to third this year (and perhaps beyond). At his age, it’s doubtful he transforms into an above-average defender at the position.

Last November, Dozier agreed to a $2.72MM deal to avoid arbitration. It remains to be seen if this extension changes that figure. At the moment, the Royals have around $90MM on the books for the upcoming season, right in line with last year’s payroll. Besides Dozier, only Whit Merrifield and recent free agent signees Carlos Santana and Mike Minor have guaranteed money on the books beyond 2021. That should leave plenty of long-term payroll space for the Royals, who will see Salvador Pérez and Jorge Soler reach free agency (barring extensions of their own) next offseason.

Red Sox Notes: Bogaerts, Latest Investment News, Closer Competition

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Xander Bogaerts will take a couple games off to rest a sore shoulder, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (via Twitter). The Red Sox do not believe he should have any problem being ready for opening day. Bogaerts might be the most important position player on the roster, as Boston doesn’t have a ready-made everyday replacement for him at short. Christian Arroyo started one game there last season, but he hasn’t regularly played the position since 2017. Same basic story for Marwin Gonzalez, who is best served filling in elsewhere around he diamond. Jeter Downs can handle short, but Boston isn’t likely to begin his ML career as an injury replacement. Jonathan Araúz isn’t a sure thing to make the roster, but he could be the guy he if makes the team. Kiké Hernandez might be the best option on the roster. He has played a little shortstop every season going back to 2014, though he generally sat behind Chris Taylor on the depth chart as the primary backup. Now, more from Boston…

  • The Fenway Sports Group is reviewing the details of a private investment offer by RedBird Capital that would raise their valuation to roughly $7.35 billion, writes Michael Silverman of the Boston Globe. FSG would remain a private company led by the current leadership group of John Henry, Tom Werner, and Michael Gordon. Managing Partner and CEO of RedBird Capital Gerry Cardinale – along with Billy Beane of the A’s – was a primary driver behind the recent RedBall SPAC (special interest acquisition group), which would have taken the company public. In this case, the roughly $750MM investment certainly helps in the big picture sense, but the Red Sox themselves aren’t likely to see much of an impact. The Fenway Sports Group has a number of properties, and this opportunity has further-reaching implications beyond, say, the Red Sox payroll. By taking the private investment route, Cardinale and RedBird would become a significant stakeholder, while FSG would get a cash influx to further their broader growth plans. Both FSG and RedBird have noted interest in expanding their holdings within the sports entertainment sector.
  • Expect Rule 5 pick Garrett Whitlock to open the season in the bullpen. The Red Sox like what they’ve seen so far, and if he doesn’t make the team, they’ll have to return him to the Yankees. The additions of versatile bench options on the offensive end should allow the Red Sox to carry an extra pitcher for much of this season, helping Whitlock’s chances of staying in Boston. In other bullpen news, Matt Barnes and Adam Ottavino are competing for the closer role, though Ryan Brasier could have a hand in closing games as well, writes the Athletic’s Chad Jennings. Hirokazu Sawamura will not pitch in that spot, despite having some experience in the role.

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