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Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs

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The Cubs traded their ace while former core players left via free agency, and attempted to add value back with a slew of one-year free agent deals.

Major League Signings

Options Exercised

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Theo Epstein gave his customary Cubs post-mortem on October 5th, complete with the suggestion of “warranted and necessary” change that has been a staple of those talks since 2018, particularly as it relates to the club’s offense.  That day Epstein spoke of an expectation that he’d remain with the Cubs for the final year of his contract, but 43 days later he announced his resignation.

As one of the reasons for his decision, Epstein noted, “There are a lot of important decisions to be made that will have long-term consequences,” and second-in-command Jed Hoyer is ready for the top job and should make those calls.  That makes sense, as the Cubs lined up the contract years of Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Javier Baez to coincide in 2021.  Plus, the Cubs were firmly in cost-cutting mode, having recently laid off 100+ employees due to the COVID-19 pandemic.  They were, as we’d soon learn, also planning a cut in player payroll.  Epstein’s abandonment of his $10MM salary could be viewed as an act of generosity of sorts, except that the Ricketts family was the beneficiary.

The last time Cubs ownership experienced “found” money, they used Ben Zobrist’s unexpected leave of absence money to cover the bulk of Craig Kimbrel’s 2019 salary.  Kimbrel’s three-year, $43MM contract represents the only time the Cubs committed more than $7MM to a new player dating back to their February 2018 signing of Yu Darvish.  The Ricketts family opened the checkbook in that 2017-18 offseason, and then cut off Epstein and company for the better part of the ensuing three years.  It’s no wonder Epstein chose to leave a year early, especially with the likely knowledge that the Ricketts family was planning to mandate a payroll cut best accomplished by trading the team’s ace.

How badly did Cubs’ ownership want to save money?  Badly enough to choose a path unprecedented in at least the last 20 years in MLB: trading a top-two Cy Young finisher coming off a winning season.  Such trades have rarely been brokered at all – teams like to keep ace pitchers – but on the rare occasion they have happened, it’s been done by a losing club.  In late December, the Cubs traded Yu Darvish, backup catcher Victor Caratini, and $3MM cash for one year of veteran pitcher Zach Davies plus three 17 to 18-year-old prospects and another who had just turned 20.

Part of being one of the 30 people in the world tasked with leading an MLB front office is that you have to sometimes say things that aren’t true.  According to Hoyer, the $51.67MM in player salary the Cubs saved in the Darvish trade was “not the focus” of the deal.  Instead, Hoyer said, “The focus of this deal was to try to move a player in the second half of his contract and try to acquire a lot of young talent.  We don’t have many opportunities to do that. Look back at the last six years, when have we had the chance to replenish in any way, and this was an opportunity to do that and we took it and we’re excited about what we got back.”

The “second half of his contract” part is Hoyer’s kinder way of saying that he feels he sold high on Darvish, who is 34.  Darvish missed almost all of 2018 due to injuries and has only pitched like an ace for the Cubs for his last 32 starts or so dating back to May 2019.  Cashing the Cubs’ ace in for prospects was described by Hoyer as “the prudent thing to do,” but a more accurate phrasing would have been “the financially prudent thing to do.”  There would have been financial risk in keeping Darvish’s three-year, $62MM commitment, just as there’s risk the players Hoyer acquired won’t pan out.  A team with a good, veteran base of talent in baseball’s worst division would typically hold onto the ace’s contract for at least one more year, taking another shot at a championship even if they don’t get to “jump-start our farm system in a big way.”  Plus, Darvish is hardly overpaid in light of Trevor Bauer’s three-year, $102MM contract.

All that said, threading the needle and trading Darvish this winter could still have been a good call.  The Rays do it all the time and remain competitive, though I’m not sure why the Cubs would try to emulate the Rays.  The problem is that if this was the best package of players offered, Hoyer should have held onto Darvish, and I’m not confident the Ricketts family endorsed that option.  The four prospects acquired are nowhere close to impacting the Cubs, unless they’re traded again in the near future.

We’re left with Darvish being swapped out for Davies, and there’s no real argument that makes the team better in 2021.  On paper, the exchange makes the Cubs 2-3 wins worse this year, in a division the Brewers are projected to take with 82.1 wins.  The Cubs are at 79.6, demonstrating the weakness of the division and the parity of the Brewers, Cubs, Cardinals, and Reds.  If the Cubs were in the NL West, the Darvish trade would have been more defensible.

Prior to Epstein stepping down, the Cubs made the obvious choice of Jon Lester’s $10MM buyout over his $25MM mutual option.  Though interest in a lower-priced reunion was mutual, Lester lingered on the market until January 20th.  He turned down a last-minute offer from the Cubs and signed for the Nationals with $5MM.  Lester moving on is notable for all he meant to the Cubs 2015-20, but at age 37 he wasn’t the best choice for their rotation.

Hoyer began remaking the Cubs’ rotation with the late December Davies-Darvish swap, adding Davies to incumbents Kyle Hendricks and Alec Mills to form a trio that rarely cracks 90 miles per hour.  In January, the Cubs attended showcases for Corey Kluber, Carlos Rodon, Mike Foltynewicz, but elected not to sign them.  They wound up signing Trevor Williams, who had been non-tendered by the Pirates.  Williams projects to pitch roughly as well as Lester does (an  ERA near 5.00) at half the price.  Williams will turn 29 in April and is under team control for 2022.  It’s not an exciting move, but Williams will soak up innings at the back end of the Cubs’ rotation in a year that every team expects to go through more starters than usual.

One of the Cubs’ bigger splashes of the offseason was the signing of Jake Arrieta in mid-February.  Like Lester, Arrieta was instrumental in the Cubs’ playoff success from 2015-17.  The addition seems like a nostalgia signing more than anything.  In 2019, the now-35-year-old Arrieta had surgery for a bone spur in his right elbow.  His strikeout rate has steadily deteriorated, though his groundball rate has held strong.  Like Williams, it’s hard to see much better than a high-4s ERA here.  So far the Cubs have gotten exactly one MLB start out of an Epstein-drafted pitcher, and it was Rob Zastryzny in 2016.

The Cubs’ bullpen was supplemented in a similar patchwork fashion with the signings of Brandon Workman, Andrew Chafin, and Ryan Tepera for a total of $4.55MM.  The ’pen will again by led by the embattled Kimbrel, who is owed $16MM this year.  Given Kimbrel’s 6.00 ERA, 14.5 BB%, and 11 home runs allowed in 36 innings for the Cubs, he wouldn’t be atop their bullpen depth chart if not for his contract.  The Cubs’ 2021 bullpen doesn’t look particularly good, but Kimbrel serves as a reminder that this is not a problem teams can easily solve by throwing money at it.

About a month after declining Lester’s option, the Cubs had to make a tougher decision on another World Series hero in Kyle Schwarber.  Drafted fourth overall in 2014, Schwarber was long considered part of the Rizzo-Bryant-Baez core that would be up for free agency after 2021.  Schwarber limped to a 91 wRC+ in 224 plate appearances in 2020, setting him up for an arbitration reward somewhere south of $9MM.  The Cubs presumably found no takers in a trade, putting a sad cap on Schwarber’s Cubs career by non-tendering him.  Schwarber became one of the rare players to sign in free agency for more than he would have gotten in arbitration, and Lester joined him in D.C. in January.

In late January, ESPN 1000’s David Kaplan reported that the Ricketts family had “recently increased the Cubs player payroll for 2021,” presumably because Wrigley Field was approved for 20% capacity to start the season.  That same day, the Cubs had a deal with Joc Pederson, the first top 50 free agent they’ve signed since Kimbrel.  Pederson decided to eschew multiyear offers for the chance to shed his platoon label, instructing his agent to reach out to the Cubs.  As manager David Ross put it (according to Pederson), “I didn’t know we were going to get to talk to free agents of your caliber.”

Pederson owns a 135 wRC+ against right-handed pitching from 2016-19 – 14th best in baseball.  His mark against lefties is just 42, though he’s typically received fewer than 60 plate appearances against southpaws annually in recent years.  If Pederson can manage a 90 wRC+ over 129 PA against lefties, as he did in his first full season in 2015, he could be one of the better left-handed hitters in baseball.

The contract years of Bryant, Baez, and Rizzo will be a storyline looming over the Cubs all year.  The Cubs have a clear goal this year of resetting under the $210MM base tax threshold instead of becoming a third-time payor, and they’ve left themselves a hefty $39MM in wiggle room under that mark.  This year’s current $171MM CBT payroll drops to about $58MM in commitments for 2022.  As of last week, Rizzo was “very optimistic” about getting an extension done.  Perhaps a three or four-year deal in the $60-75MM range would work for both sides.

While Rizzo had an off year in 2020, Baez was the third-worst qualified hitter in the game.  It was only 235 plate appearances, but you can understand the Cubs’ hesitancy in locking him up for five or six years.  On the other hand, if the Baez of 2018-19 returns, the Cubs will have lost their chance at a bargain.  Baez is not setting a deadline on contract talks, and may be keen on avoiding a free agent market that could boast fellow shortstops Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Carlos Correa, among others.

Despite trade rumors all winter, Bryant stayed put and is even open to extension discussions.  That seems unlikely, however, and Bryant is a prime trade candidate if the Cubs are out of the race in July.  The team would have to be particularly bad to be out of contention by mid-July in the NL Central, however, which could present Hoyer with a difficult choice.  The Cubs already prioritized financial savings and far-off prospects over their 2021 record in the Yu Darvish trade, so that could easily happen again this summer.

The 2021 Cubs are not all-in to win another championship, nor are they attempting anything like a rebuild.  The club seems content with mediocrity, and that’s the most likely outcome.

How would you grade the Cubs’ offseason? (Poll link for app users)

Mets Notes: Carrasco, Thor, Barnes, Lucchesi

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Right-hander Carlos Carrasco resumed throwing today, pitching one inning (about 20 pitches) in a simulated game setting, Mets skipper Luis Rojas tells reporters (Twitter link via Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News). The Mets remain hopeful that Carrasco can be ready for the Opening Day roster, though that much can’t be known until they see how he feels after throwing this morning and until he builds up more in subsequent throwing sessions. The Mets paused Carrasco’s throwing work last week after he reported some discomfort in his right elbow, but his shutdown was rather brief, lasting just eight days.

Some more notes out of Port St. Lucie…

  • Noah Syndergaard threw off a mound this morning, with Mike Puma of the New York Post providing some video footage for interested Mets fans (Twitter link). Rojas tells reporters that Syndergaard, who is on the mend from 2020 Tommy John surgery, is not yet to 100 percent but nevertheless reached 96 mph with his fastball in this morning’s session (via MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo). The 28-year-old won’t be ready for the Opening Day roster, of course, but based on his current trajectory he could be back in the mix by early summer. He’ll be a free agent at season’s end.
  • Reliever Jacob Barnes is impressing Mets staffers thus far in Spring Training, writes Greg Joyce of the New York Post. Barnes, a 30-year-old right-hander who was claimed off waivers back in October, worked extensively with pitching coach Jeremy Hefner to deepen his understanding of the analytical side of pitching. “Up until this point, I didn’t really have that,” said Barnes of the data-focused approach taken by Hefner. “So I was just going out there just assuming what worked and didn’t. He pretty much gave me a blueprint of, ‘This fastball works really well here and here and the slider [there].'” Barnes is out of minor league options, so he’ll need to either make the Opening Day bullpen or else be designated for assignment.
  • Joey Lucchesi is another Mets newcomer impressing decision-makers, as Thosar explored last night. Rojas and others were pleased with yesterday’s start, as well as Lucchesi’s work in simulated games thus far in camp. He’s in the running for the fifth starter’s job, along with David Peterson and Jordan Yamamoto, both of whom have pitched well. Rojas notes that Lucchesi is stretched out and won’t be used in the bullpen for now, which suggests he’ll be optioned if he doesn’t break camp with a rotation gig. That’d be a disappointing outcome for Lucchesi himself, but the very presence of such a decision speaks to the improved pitching depth the Mets possess in 2021 — something they haven’t had as much of in recent seasons.

Offseason In Review: Minnesota Twins

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The reigning AL Central champs moved on from their longtime left fielder, retained their top slugger and improved their defense. They’ll face stiff competition in their quest for a third straight division title, however.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

For the first time in half a decade, the Twins will open the season with someone other than Eddie Rosario patrolling left field. The homegrown slugger held that spot for the better part of six years, but faced with Rosario’s final raise in arbitration and with multiple high-end prospects on the horizon, the Twins felt that money was better spent elsewhere. The league seemingly agreed, as Rosario went unclaimed on outright waivers before being non-tendered. He’d go on to sign in Cleveland for an $8MM salary that gives him a modest raise over 2020’s $7.75MM mark but still falls shy of what he’d have earned in arbitration.

While it was at least a mild surprise that no club jumped to grab Rosario on outright waivers, the Twins’ decision to move on in some capacity was largely foreseeable. Rosario is a fine player with above-average pop, but given his sub-par on-base skills and rising price tag, the writing was on the wall.

The Twins have two of the game’s top overall outfield prospects, Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach, nearly ready for a long-term audition in the outfield. Kirilloff, who has a chance to make the Opening Day roster, made his big league debut in last year’s postseason and seems to be first in line for the left field vacancy. The Twins also saw former No. 35 overall pick Brent Rooker, a left fielder/first baseman, make his big league debut last year. Jake Cave gives them another option in left should injuries or struggles keep the prospects from taking over.

It may not have surprised as many fans as the Rosario move, but the Twins’ non-tender of righty Matt Wisler was also unexpected. Having plucked the former top prospect off waivers to begin the 2019-20 offseason, the Twins pushed Wisler to throw his slider at a staggering 83 percent clip. The experiment was an unequivocal success, as Wisler turned in a 1.07 ERA and punched out nearly a third of the batters he faced. His 13 percent walk rate was far too high, however, and though his projected arbitration salary wasn’t much more than $1MM, the Twins appeared confident they could replace his production.

With that pair of non-tenders saving $10MM or more, the Twins’ payroll outlook in early December was relatively pristine. Josh Donaldson is earning $23MM annually, but the 2021 projected payroll at that point was a mere $90MM — down from more than $130MM in 2020. The number plummets in 2022, when the Twins have just $48MM in guaranteed contracts on the books.

As such, the Twins had the financial wherewithal to pursue just about any free agent, but it quickly became clear they were focused primarily on one-year additions. Whether the driving factor there was uncertainty about further revenue losses in 2021, the desire to keep a clean outlook for next year’s mega-crop of free agents or a combination of multiple factors, the trend is clear both in the free agents they signed and in the names they pursued.

Minnesota tried for one of the market’s bigger names out of the gate, reportedly making a strong offer for Charlie Morton before he took an early deal with the Braves. The Athletic’s Dan Hayes wrote back in November that the Twins were a “finalist” for Morton, but the righty’s strong preference to pitch near his family home in Bradenton, Fla. has long been known.

Pursuits of Corey Kluber and James Paxton led to similar results. After spending months rehabbing at a facility run by Yankees director of health and performance Eric Cressey, Kluber went to the Bronx. Paxton re-upped with the Mariners, and Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto said afterward that Paxton “wanted to be a Mariner” gave the club a “hometown discount” of sorts on his $8.5MM salary.

The Twins did ultimately add a pair of veterans to the rotation, inking 38-year-old lefty J.A. Happ to a one-year deal worth $8MM and signing righty Matt Shoemaker to a one-year, $2MM deal after an injury-wrecked pair of seasons. In many ways, the signings mirror last winter’s signings of Homer Bailey and Rich Hill. The more expensive of the two additions is designed to stabilize the rotation, while the more affordable one carries more upside and a greater risk of injury. The combined $10MM price point is a dead match with the combined $10MM base salaries of Bailey ($7MM) and Hill ($3MM).

While neither Happ nor Shoemaker gives the Twins a top-of-the-rotation presence, the organizational hope is surely that last year’s breakout from Kenta Maeda gives them the ace-caliber arm they’ve lacked since Johan Santana. Between Maeda, Jose Berrios, Michael Pineda, Happ and Shoemaker, the Twins have a solid Opening Day rotation. Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer and Lewis Thorpe give them a trio of younger options with some big league experience (and a good bit of success, in Dobnak’s case). Right-handers Jordan Balazovic and Jhoan Duran, both top 100 prospects according to FanGraphs and The Athletic, loom in the upper minors and could debut in 2021.

Jake Odorizzi remained on the Twins’ radar for much of the offseason, but his desire for a multi-year deal never seemed to align with the team’s general approach. While the eventual terms of his deal with the Astros may arguably have been a better investment than the one-year deals with Happ and Shoemaker, Odorizzi was reported to be seeking a three-year deal at $13-15MM annually for much of the winter. By the times his asking price dropped, the Twins had signed multiple pitchers and turned the page on the 2019 All-Star.

Looking to the bullpen, the Twins lost nearly their entire setup corps with Trevor May, Sergio Romo, Tyler Clippard and Wisler hitting the market. All four will pitch elsewhere in 2021. In place of that trio, Minnesota signed former division rival Alex Colome to a one-year deal and took a chance on a Hansel Robles rebound. Both have closing experience, and Colome has been particularly effective in terms of ERA over the past couple seasons with the White Sox. Even though Colome’s secondary marks don’t look as appealing as his ERA, it’s hard to find fault with the $6.25MM price tag. He’s expected to share closing duties with holdover Taylor Rogers, who took a slight step back in 2020 but has amassed a generally strong late-inning track record since 2018.

The Twins’ acquisition of righty Shaun Anderson didn’t draw much attention, but he gives the club a spin-rate project on which they can dream. Anderson has elite spin on both his four-seamer and, in particular, his slider. Walks have been a significant problem thus far in his big league career, but Anderson has a pair of minor league options remaining, so the Twins can take their time in trying to shape him into a quality reliever.

In the meantime, the Twins will look for incumbent options to step up. Tyler Duffey broke out as one of the game’s best relievers in 2019-20 (2.31 ERA, 2.72 SIERA, 34.2 K%, 6.1 BB%). Flamethrower Jorge Alcala had a quietly excellent showing in 2020, and righty Cody Stashak is another largely anonymous but highly effective reliever through his first 40 big league frames. Southpaw Caleb Thielbar was tendered a contract in December after a strong season, continuing his emotional comeback effort following a five-year absence from MLB.

On the offensive side of the coin, the main storyline for the Twins entering the winter (beyond Rosario) was whether they’d re-sign veteran slugger Nelson Cruz. A reunion with Cruz was dependent on the universal designated hitter — or the lack thereof. Cruz reportedly sought a two-year contract, while the Twins were steadfast in their preference to keep the commitment to one year. With few AL contenders having the capacity to add a pure DH, however, Cruz seemingly needed the universal DH to be permanently implemented if he was going to create enough market pressure to get to a two-year deal. That still hasn’t happened, and Cruz eventually signed on for a third season at Target Field after the Twins upped their one-year offer to match the AAV from his first two years there.

As noted when previewing their offseason, the Twins didn’t necessarily have a true “need” in the middle infield, but it represented an opportunity to get creative. President of baseball ops Derek Falvey, GM Thad Levine and their front office crew did just that, pursuing one-year pacts with free-agent shortstops Andrelton Simmons and Marcus Semien. When Semien took a larger offer in Toronto, the Twins quickly wrapped things up with Simmons.

In doing so, they secured a historically gifted defender and pushed incumbent shortstop Jorge Polanco to second base. Versatile Luis Arraez will slide into the vacant super-utility role previously held by Marwin Gonzalez, who signed with the Red Sox as a free agent. Arraez, a .331/.390/.429 hitter through his first 124 MLB games, will get into the lineup regularly by filling in around the infield and in left field.

Both Simmons and Polanco have battled significant ankle issues the past two seasons, but the hope is that after a pair of surgeries, Polanco will be back to full strength for the first time since 2018. If Simmons is healthy, he and Josh Donaldson could form one of the game’s best left-side tandems on defense. Polanco has never rated as a strong defensive shortstop, but the Twins feel he can be above-average at second base.

If that’s indeed the case, the Twins could be one of the game’s best defensive clubs. Miguel Sano isn’t going to win any awards for his glovework at first base, but the rest of the infield, combined with strong defenders behind the dish (Ryan Jeffers, Mitch Garver) and elite defenders in the outfield (Byron Buxton, Max Kepler) should be formidable.

The Twins were dealt a tough blow early in Spring Training, when it was learned on report day that some knee discomfort being experienced by Royce Lewis, the No. 1 overall pick in 2017, was due to an ACL tear that will end his 2021 season before it begins. Lewis, widely regarded among the game’s top 30 or so prospects, hurt his knee during offseason workouts and aggravated it when he slipped during the blizzards near his Texas home. He’ll now go more than two years between competitive games, although at just 21 years old, he has youth on his side.

The 2021 Twins have a different feel to them than 2019’s “Bomba Squad,” but this looks to be an improved defensive club with a good bit of thunder in the middle of the lineup and a deep pitching staff. The Indians’ trades of Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco have dropped them a ways back in projections, but improvements on the White Sox roster mean the Twins will still face stiff competition as they look for an AL Central threepeat. Meanwhile, both the Royals and Tigers added some veterans to complement rosters that are seeing the fruits of their rebuilding efforts percolate to the big league level.

This should be the best iteration of the AL Central we’ve seen in years. The Twins have again positioned themselves as clear contenders in 2021 and done so while maintaining the long-term flexibility to be prominent players in next year’s stacked free-agent market.

How would you grade the Twins’ offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

Pitching Notes: King Felix, Teheran, Red Sox, D-backs, Angels

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Orioles manager Brandon Hyde issued a fairly encouraging update on right-hander Felix Hernandez, who left his outing Tuesday with discomfort in his pitching elbow. Hyde told Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com and other reporters that the issue is “just bothering him a little bit right now,” but there isn’t a timetable for his return. As of now, the Orioles have not scheduled any exams for Hernandez, a minor league signing who looked likely to win a season-opening rotation spot in the bigs before this injury cropped up. He should still be in position to start for the O’s this year if his elbow heals.

  • After an ugly season with the Angels in 2020, righty Julio Teheran sat on the free-agent market until last month, when he settled for a minors deal with the Tigers. The 30-year-old has fared so well this spring that he’s on track to claim a spot on Detroit’s Opening Day roster. Manager AJ Hinch said Wednesday that Teheran is “getting pretty close to” earning a job, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press relays. If the longtime Brave is able to pull that off, he’ll earn a $3MM salary this season.
  • Righty Tanner Houck was among the players the Red Sox sent down Wednesday, leaving fellow RHP Nick Pivetta as a lock to open the season as their fifth starter, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com writes. Pivetta, whom the Red Sox acquired from the Phillies last summer, endured his share of struggles during the first four years of his career, but he finished 2020 in encouraging fashion and has continued to turn heads this spring. Houck, meanwhile, was outstanding during a three-start, 17-inning major league debut last year, when he pitched to a near-spotless 0.53 ERA and struck out 33.3 percent of the batters he faced. However, unlike Pivetta, Houck has minor league options remaining – which surely impacted Boston’s decision.
  • Even though Diamondbacks right J.B. Bukauskas flashed an impressive repertoire across four scoreless innings this spring, the club demoted him earlier this week. Agent Scott Boras took exception to the decision, per Zach Buchanan of The Athletic, saying “we all know it’s about service-clock issues” and adding that “We all know we’ll see J.B. on April 15.” Unsurprisingly, general manager Mike Hazen denied that service time was one of the causes for the move, claiming it had “zero” impact. Rather, according to Hazen, the Diamondbacks preferred to open the season with more experienced options in their bullpen. Manager Torey Lovullo does expect the 24-year-old to make his major league debut this year, though, “if he continues on the same path.”
  • Angels righty Felix Pena is expected to miss two to four weeks with a Grade 1 right hamstring strain, Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com tweets. That should rule out Pena for the beginning of the season, which is a blow to the Angels’ bullpen. Last year, Pena threw 26 2/3 innings of 4.05 ERA/3.52 SIERA ball with above-average strikeout and walk percentages of 25.2 and 7.0, respectively.

MLBTR Poll: Projecting The 2021 Rays

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The Rays are one of the more fascinating teams to project almost every year. Next season should be no exception. Tampa Bay went 40-20 in last year’s shortened season, entering the postseason as the American League’s top seed. The Rays made good on that status, knocking off the Blue Jays, Yankees and Astros in successive series to claim their first pennant in twelve years. A six-game defeat at the hands of the Dodgers in the Fall Classic kept the franchise from their first World Series title, but there’s no doubt the 2020 season was a success.

Whether they followed that up with a quality offseason is debatable. Tampa Bay declined a club option on Charlie Morton and traded away Blake Snell, subtracting two of their top three pitchers. Tyler Glasnow and Ryan Yarbrough are back, likely aided by offseason additions Chris Archer, Rich Hill, Michael Wacha, Collin McHugh and Luis Patiño. The bullpen was an area of strength for the Rays in 2020. That figures to again be the case, with Nick Anderson, Pete Fairbanks and Diego Castillo leading a talented group that throws wildly varying profiles and arm angles at opposing lineups.

There’s a lot more continuity on the position player side. The Rays bring back nine of the ten players who took at least 100 plate appearances last year (Hunter Renfroe being the player who departed). Yet while the offense was very good during the regular season in 2020, the bats largely went cold in the playoffs (with postseason star Randy Arozarena an obvious exception). Should we expect a return to form from those regulars who propped up a lineup that was the league’s eighth-best (by wRC+) in the regular season? There’s also the potential for baseball’s top prospect, Wander Franco, to make an impact this year, although that unsurprisingly won’t be at the start of the season.

Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system forecasts a season in the 87-win range; their median outcome has Tampa Bay finishing second in the AL East (behind the Yankees) but securing a Wild Card spot. FanGraphs’ Depth Charts aren’t as optimistic, pegging the Rays at 84 wins and behind the Yankees, Blue Jays and Red Sox in the division. Splitting the difference, we’ll set the over/under at 85.5 wins. Should we expect another postseason run for the Rays in 2021?

(poll links for app users)

 

 

Quick Hits: Rockies, Cron, A’s, Mathias, Angels

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C.J. Cron appears to be the favorite to claim the Rockies’ open first base job, writes Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post as part of a reader mailbag. Signed to a minor-league deal in February, Cron is competing with Josh Fuentes and fellow non-roster invitee Greg Bird. Installing Cron at first would allow Fuentes to see action at multiple corner positions off the bench. That might make it tough to also carry Bird as a lefty bench bat, although Saunders notes there’s a chance all three players make the season-opening active roster, particularly if Brendan Rodgers is forced to start the year on the injured list after straining his hamstring. Cron and Bird would each need to be added to the 40-man roster if they make the team, although Colorado currently has one open 40-man spot.

More from around the sport:

  • Athletics left-hander A.J. Puk made his Cactus League debut today. He threw approximately 30 pitches this afternoon and plans to toss around 45 in his next outing, writes Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle. Manager Bob Melvin has mentioned Puk as a potential option for the season-opening rotation if Mike Fiers, suffering from hip inflammation, isn’t ready by the first week of April. It remains to be seen if Puk will have enough time to sufficiently build up strength for the start of the season himself.
  • The Brewers placed Mark Mathias on the 60-day injured list yesterday to create roster space for Travis Shaw. It seems Mathias will be on the shelf for significantly longer than that two-month minimum. The utilityman suffered a posterior labrum tear, he told reporters (via Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel). Mathias is awaiting a second opinion on the possibility of rehabbing the injury without surgery; even if he can avoid going under the knife, the 26-year-old says he’s likely looking at a three to four month layoff. Mathias made his MLB debut last season.
  • Today’s news that Felix Peña likely won’t be available for Opening Day leaves the Angels’ bullpen down an important arm. After the injury, general manager Perry Minasian acknowledged the club might now go outside the organization to acquire additional relief help, Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic was among those to relay. Free agency still offers a few possibilities, with 32-year-old righty Shane Greene arguably the top arm available. Greene’s market has been rather quiet all offseason, but he continues to throw in anticipation of an opportunity, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).

Phillies Health Notes: Didi, Eflin, Howard

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A few Phillies health updates, courtesy of Matt Gelb of The Athletic:

  • Shortstop Didi Gregorius left Tuesday’s game after taking an 89 mph fastball off the back of the head from Blue Jays right-hander Tanner Roark. Manager Joe Girardi said at the time that Gregorius was dealing with“a minor, minor headache” (via Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia), but he then told Gelb and other reporters that the Phillies will re-evaluate him on Friday. Going without Gregorius for any period of regular-season time would be a shot to the Phillies’ offense, as he batted .284/.339/.488 with 10 home runs in 237 appearances and appeared in all 60 of their games last year. That performance persuaded the Phillies to re-sign Gregorius to a two-year, $28MM guarantee in free agency.
  • Right-hander Zach Eflin will not pitch this week because of a back injury that the Phillies are somewhat concerned about, Girardi said. Just as Gregorius is a key cog in Philadelphia’s offense, Eflin is an integral part of its rotation. The top complement to the one-two punch of Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, Eflin is looking to build on a career year in which he logged personal-best numbers in several categories. Eflin finished 2020 with a 3.97 ERA/3.50 FIP, excellent strikeout and walk percentages (28.6 and 6.1, respectively), and a strong 47.4 percent groundball rate over 59 innings. If Eflin isn’t ready for the start of the season, it could open the door for Vince Velasquez to claim the open spot in the Phillies’ rotation, Gelb notes.
  • In yet another unwelcome bit of news for Philly’s staff, righty Spencer Howard still hasn’t been cleared to throw after going down with back spasms earlier this week. The 24-year-old had been in line to compete for a spot in the club’s rotation, but that appears to be out the window for the time being. Howard, whom Baseball America ranked as the game’s 27th-best prospect in 2020, made a rocky debut last year with six starts and 24 1/3 frames of 5.92 ERA ball (with a more encouraging 4.87 SIERA). However, he did dominate the High-A and Double-A levels in 2019.

Latest On Framber Valdez

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MARCH 17: Surgery has not been recommended for Valdez, Jake Kaplan of The Athletic tweets. Valdez will head back to spring training to rehab, but there’s no timeline for a return to the mound.

MARCH 6: Framber Valdez has not yet given up on pitching in 2021. He is considering avoiding surgery and rehabbing his broken ring finger with an eye on returning later this season, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Earlier reports suggested Valdez might miss the entire season after being recommended for surgery. Clearly, a final decision has yet to be made.

Despite the signing of Jake Odorizzi to a two-year deal, the Astros would, of course, welcome a healthy Valdez back into the fold. Still, that Houston felt the need to go out and finalize a deal for Odorizzi less than a week after the Valdez injury suggests they aren’t all that optimistic, writes Jake Kaplan of the Athletic. Even if Valdez returns, however, he’s likely to miss a decent chunk of time.

One of the breakout stars of the 2020 postseason, Valdez rode his signature curveball to a 1.88 ERA in four playoff appearances while striking out 29 percent of opponents. That effort built on a quieter but no less encouraging 3.57 ERA/2.85 FIP over 70 ⅔ innings during the regular season.

Blue Jays’ Nate Pearson Re-Aggravates Groin Injury

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3:37pm: Pearson is doing “better,” according to manager Charlie Montoyo, but it’s “unlikely” he’ll be ready for the start of the season (Twitter link via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet).

10:38am: Right-hander Nate Pearson suffered a “mild re-aggravation” of his strained right groin during a bullpen session on Tuesday, Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins told reporters (including Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi).  Pearson will be monitored over the next few days, though considering that the young righty has missed almost all of March with the injury, it seems likely that Pearson will need to begin the season on the injured list while he heals and gets properly ramped up to pitch.

Pearson suffered a Grade 1 groin strain on March 1, during his first Grapefruit League outing.  The injury wasn’t considered too serious, and Pearson’s recovery appeared to be going smoothly — for instance, he came out of another bullpen session last Saturday with no issues.  However, the 24-year-old will now probably be facing a delay in the start of his first full Major League season.

One of the game’s most highly-touted young pitchers, Pearson made his MLB debut last season and posted a 6.00 ERA over 18 innings in the regular season, plus two scoreless frames during the Jays’ wild card series with the Rays.  Pearson also spent a month on the IL due to elbow tightness.

Despite the difficulties of Pearson’s first season, the Blue Jays were counting on big things in 2021, hoping that Pearson would emerge as a solid No. 2 starter behind Hyun-Jin Ryu.  It was something of a risky move even with Pearson healthy, and his absence (even if it ends up being a somewhat short stint on the IL) now underlines the questions surrounding Toronto’s pitching.  Tanner Roark, Ross Stripling, Trent Thornton, the re-signed Robbie Ray, and new acquisition Steven Matz are all looking for bounce-back seasons, while younger arms like Anthony Kay and Thomas Hatch are still unproven at the MLB level.

If Pearson does miss time, Atkins intimated that Stripling was the favorite to step into the rotation, going from a swingman role to a starting role.  As Davidi notes, this could put Kay, Hatch, Thornton, or T.J. Zeuch in line to take over Stripling’s long man job in the bullpen, which creates further juggling down the road about how to manage innings and whether younger pitchers are best deployed as relievers or kept stretched out as rotation depth.

Blue Jays Notes: Hatch, Liriano, Opt-Outs, Montoyo

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Right-hander Thomas Hatch made a worrying exit from today’s Spring Training outing, as Hatch immediately signaled for the trainer after throwing a fastball to Aaron Judge.  The Blue Jays’ official Twitter feed reported that Hatch left the game due to “right elbow/forearm discomfort.”

Acquired from the Cubs in a deadline trade for David Phelps in 2019, Hatch posted a 2.73 ERA over his first 26 1/3 Major League innings, though advanced metrics weren’t too keen on his performance.  Hatch worked almost exclusively out of the bullpen last season, and for 2021 was being viewed by the Jays as a possible reliever or depth starter, or perhaps a bit of both in a swingman or long-relief gig.  Unfortunately, those plans may now be up in the air given Hatch’s injury — while more will be known once Hatch is examined by trainers and doctors, it certainly looked like a potential long-term problem for the 26-year-old. [UPDATE: Hatch will undergo an MRI, Scott Mitchell of TSN tweets.]

More from Toronto…

  • A possible absence for Hatch adds another layer to an already-tricky set of forthcoming roster decisions for the Jays, as Nate Pearson is also looking at a season-opening IL stint due to a setback in his recovery from a groin strain.  Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi looks at some of the Jays’ possible options in shaping their roster, and at least one 40-man move will be necessary since Francisco Liriano is looking like a solid bet to make the team.  Liriano signed a minor league deal in February that will pay him $1.5MM in guaranteed salary if he makes the MLB roster, and a good Spring Training performance has the veteran in line to win a spot as left-handed depth in Toronto’s bullpen.
  • Both Liriano and Joe Panik have March 25 opt-out dates in their minors contracts if they aren’t added to the big league team, while Tommy Milone’s opt-out is on March 27 and A.J. Cole’s opt-out isn’t until May 15.  In terms of out-of-options players, Reese McGuire and Breyvic Valera can’t be sent to the minors without first clearing waivers, which could give them some advantage in making the team.  “The Blue Jays would ideally love to stash a few of their minor-league contracts on the taxi squad, with the carrot of a quick call up if needed,” Davidi writes.
  • The Jays announced yesterday that they had exercised their club option on Charlie Montoyo for the 2022 season, giving the manager an additional guaranteed year on his contract.  In terms of a longer-term extension, Montoyo told told Mitchell and other reporters that such negotiations had yet to take.  Entering his third season as Toronto’s manager, Montoyo led the young Jays to a 32-28 record and a spot in the expanded 2020 postseason last year, and now more is expected of a team that made some big offseason investments.

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