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Masahiro Tanaka Signs With NPB’s Rakuten Eagles

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Right-hander Masahiro Tanaka announced this morning that he will not sign with a Major League team this winter and will instead return to Nippon Professional Baseball’s Rakuten Eagles. The Eagles, Tanaka’s initial club in professional ball, formally announced a new deal and offered a warm message: “WELCOME HOME our HERO!” It’s a two-year contract, according to the Kyodo News. Tanaka, meanwhile, offered a heartfelt thank you to his fans in MLB:

To my beloved fans,

I hope  everybody is keeping safe during these challenging times. I wanted to reach out to you because I have made a decision on where I will play this coming season. I have decided to return to Japan and play for the Rakuten Eagles for the 2021 season. I wanted to make sure and touch base with you, and thank you for all the love and support you have given me for the past 7 seasons. I feel extremely fortunate for having the opportunity to take the field as a member of the New York Yankees, and play in front of all you passionate fans. It has been an honor and a privilege! Thank you so much!

Tanaka initially hinted at a return to Japan in an interview earlier this month, and there’s been increasing levels of speculation that he’d do so as the month wore on. When the Yankees re-signed DJ LeMahieu and quickly followed with a deal to sign Corey Kluber for an $11MM guarantee, it immediately became clear that Tanaka wouldn’t be returning to the Bronx; the Kluber deal pushed the Yankees right up against the luxury tax threshold — which ownership is unwilling to cross this winter — and even after dumping most of Adam Ottavino’s salary the Yankees were still less than $10MM from the barrier. There simply wasn’t much of a way for Tanaka to fit into the payroll and for the front office to stick to that apparent luxury tax mandate.

Masahiro Tanaka | Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports

Tanaka’s comment about returning to Japan “for the 2021 season” will certainly lead to some speculation about a future MLB return. It’s certainly possible, despite the reported two-year nature of the contract. Opt-out provisions were put into Tomoyuki Sugano’s four-year deal with the Yomiuri Giants and could certainly be a part of Tanaka’s deal with the Eagles. It’s worth emphasizing, too, that terms of contracts in Japan are deliberately obfuscated and kept close to the vest. The aforementioned Kyodo News report suggests Tanaka will earn roughly $8.6MM per season, although NPB expert Jim Allen noted in looking at the signing that even that reported sum is “subject to speculation” because of the near impossibility of verifying NPB contracts.

Whether Tanaka plays out the remainder of his career in Japan or again eyes a return to the Major Leagues, there’s little denying that his initial seven-year run with the Yankees was a success. Tanaka appeared in 174 games with New York, all but one of them starts, and pitched to a combined 3.74 ERA and 3.62 SIERA while striking out 23.1 percent of his opponents against a tidy 4.8 percent walk rate.

Tanaka sustained a partial tear of his ulnar collateral ligament early in his Yankees tenure and opted for rehab rather than surgery, which proved to be a wise move. While many fans continued to expect Tanaka’s elbow to give out due to that injury, Tanaka not only avoided surgery but never again landed on the injured list due to an elbow issue. He had brief IL stints for a hamstring strain, wrist tendinitis, a concussion and a 10-day stint due to shoulder tightness, but Tanaka was a veritable workhorse for the Yankees. From 2016-19, he averaged 30 games per year and six innings per start.

The 2020 season may have seen Tanaka run into some struggles in the postseason, but prior to that he was a lights-out October performer. From 2015-19, Tanaka posted a 1.76 ERA and held opponents to a .216/.258/.474 batting line in 46 playoff innings. Even after being tagged for 11 runs in eight frames in 2020, his overall postseason ERA sits at a strong 3.33.

Tanaka may not have been the ace that some Yankees fans hoped for when he was initially signed to a seven-year, $155MM contract, but he was a durable workhorse who regularly pitched deep into games, rarely was blown out of a start and put together an impressive postseason record in one of the game’s toughest divisions. He’ll surely receive a hero’s welcome in his return to the Eagles — be it virtually or in person — and MLB clubs will keep close tabs on the right-hander in case he ultimately seeks a return to North American ball.

Latest On Cardinals’ Free Agents

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At the outset of the offseason, it seemed plausible to imagine a world in which Adam Wainwright, Yadier Molina, and Kolten Wong would return to the team without ever really testing free agency. Instead, Wainwright and Molina eschewed quick reunion deals in favor of market exploration and the club declined its option over Wong.

As Spring Training closes in, the fates of all three players remain unknown. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch updates the market situation of these St. Louis stalwarts.

Wainwright is unsurprisingly drawing a good amount of interest, it seems. Goold says that the veteran righty is sitting on multiple offers, including one from the upstart Padres. Details remain unknown — including how the San Diego team would propose to fit him in a loaded rotation mix. Neither is it clear how strongly Wainwright is considering alternative destinations at this point.

The Cards are still pursuing both Wainwright and Molina, per Goold, having extended “updated offers” to each player. There’s no further word as to whether the longtime teammates are coordinating in a bid to land in the same place, as they’ve discussed previously.

It’s quite a different situation with respect to Wong, who enjoyed a quality run with the Cardinals but doesn’t have quite the organizational standing of the aforementioned legends. The second bagger has reportedly had contact with his former employer, but it’s far from clear that they’re headed for a reunion. Goold writes that the club has “not actively pursued” a new deal with Wong.

The Cards remain in a somewhat odd situation on the heels of a good-but-not-great season. The org hasn’t had a losing season since 2007, has quite a bit of talent on hand, and has a tantalizing opportunity to capitalize on an NL Central division that may be the game’s weakest. At the moment, though, the club is taking an outwardly passive approach to the offseason.

The above-linked article contains further exploration of the situations. It also features updates on the winter ball action of Molina and key righty Carlos Martinez.

Angels Not Expected To Pursue Trevor Bauer

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Though they’ve been linked in the past, at least speculatively, the Angels are evidently foregoing pursuit of top free agent starter Trevor Bauer. Maria Torres of the Los Angeles Times reports that the Los Angeles organization just doesn’t see itself as a match.

The report doesn’t formally stamp out the possibility of a deal with Bauer, but it comes just shy of doing so. Torres pegs the odds of the sides lining up at “practically zero.”

This development makes for a bit of a surprise given the Halos’ need for a top starter and Bauer’s ties to Southern California. One might’ve expected some effort to land the high-grade hurler, at least to a certain point in the bidding.

Interestingly, it doesn’t appear to be a situation where the market has simply moved past the team’s valuation of the player. Money is a factor, to be sure. Torres indicates that the Halos’ budget likely doesn’t have anywhere near the space needed to fit Bauer — at least, barring the authorization of a pocketbook expansion by owner Arte Moreno.

Cash is generally king, but it may not be the dispositive factor here. Torres cites the presence of Mickey Callaway as a major roadblock. Callaway’s relationship with Bauer is, she writes, “believed to be eroded beyond repair” from the grating time the pair spent with the Indians organization.

If indeed Callaway and Bauer are oil and water, the Angels may not be a fit at any (realistic) price. That could leave the Mets in the driver’s seat, though other clubs have been connected to Bauer and there’s still time for some dark horses to emerge.

Blue Jays Acquire Steven Matz

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9:15pm: The teams have announced the deal.

8:35pm: The Blue Jays and Mets are closing in on a swap that would send lefty Steven Matz to Toronto, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter). Robert Murray of Fansided tweeted that a trade between the clubs was coming; Michael Mayer of Metsmerized had tweeted that a Matz move was in the works.

Three right-handed pitchers will head back to New York in the arrangement: Josh Winckowski, Sean Reid-Foley, and Yennsy Diaz. (Via Murray, on Twitter, and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca, also via Twitter.)

Matz, 29, is due $5.2MM after agreeing to avoid arbitration. He will qualify for free agency after the 2021 campaign. The Mets obviously determined they could better allocate that salary for other needs. Whether it’ll be part of a big payout to lure Trevor Bauer remains to be seen; there’s still no reason to believe anything is imminent on that front.

While he has at times featured as a high-quality big-league starter, Matz has had his share of difficulties of late. The Long Island native wraps up a six-year run with the Mets having thrown 579 2/3 innings of 4.35 ERA ball.

While Matz made thirty starts apiece in 2018 and 2019, arm issues were a recurring problem. He spent time on the injured list in 2020 and ended the campaign with a brutal 9.68 ERA in just 30 2/3 frames of action.

That unfortunate short-season effort came with a few bright spots. Though Matz surrendered a ton of hard contact, he also managed a career-best 25.4% strikeout percentage while delivering his sinker at an average of 94.5 mph.

Clearly, the Jays believe Matz still possesses the necessary physical tools to deliver a good number of useful innings. He’ll likely have a chance to battle for a rotation spot in camp, though the team could also plan to use him in a swingman or even pure relief capacity.

The Mets will get some reward for deciding to tender Matz a contract. None of the three arms acquired come with high-grade prospect billing, but each will have a chance to contribute in the near term.

Both Reid-Foley and Diaz have debuted in the majors, meaning they also occupy 40-man roster spots (albeit with options remaining). The former threw 71 2/3 innings of 4.40 ERA ball over three seasons with the Jays, carrying a suboptimal 76:48 cumulative K/BB ratio. Diaz has just one appearance to his name, but turned in a solid showing at the Double-A level in 2019.

As for Winckowski, he’s still due for further seasoning. The 22-year-old reached the High-A level in 2019. Over 127 1/3 total frames that year, he turned in a sturdy 2.69 ERA. Winckowski will (again) be eligible for the Rule 5 draft after the 2021 campaign.

Mets Have Made Offer To Trevor Bauer

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JANUARY 27: Martino has a bit more information on the Mets’ offer (Twitter link). The deal would run no more than four years, with Bauer picking up at least one opt-out opportunity. There’s still no indication that the Mets are anything more than one of several suitors at this point.

It’s no surprise that the New York org dangled this sort of relatively unorthodox scenario to Bauer. He’s obviously willing to entertain all sorts of contractual approaches and different teams may prefer any number of different structures. It’ll ultimately be interesting to learn (to the extent it ends up being publicly reported) just how many variations Bauer will ultimately have to choose from.

JANUARY 26: The Mets’ interest in Trevor Bauer has reached the point that they’ve made a formal offer to the right-hander, reports SNY’s Andy Martino (via Twitter). However, despite a report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale indicating that the Mets have put forth a record-setting annual value in their offer, each of Martino, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand report that the Mets do not have an offer that strong on the table.

Nightengale has since walked back the AAV portion of his report but further tweeted that a Mets source “confirmed” they’ve made a formal offer to Bauer (obviously, at a non-record-setting rate). Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets that the offer was formally put on the table “weeks ago,” so it obviously has not been strong enough to push Bauer toward a deal. That said, the first definitive indication of an offer being made to Bauer is of some note.

The current AAV record is held by Gerrit Cole, whose nine-year contract with the Yankees pays him an average of $36MM per year. There’s been plenty of speculation on the possibility of Bauer eclipsing that mark but on a shorter-term arrangement. MLBTR’s own Tim Dierkes took a look at whether Bauer and agent Rachel Luba would have a legitimate case for seeking such a deal earlier this winter, concluding that a record AAV offer would likely need to come in at four or fewer years in total length. That topic has proven quite polarizing, with many onlookers pointing to Cole’s superior track record and consistency. However, as Tim explored, teams are typically willing to pay substantial premiums in terms of AAV if it limits the overall length of a contract.

Bauer hasn’t closed the door on any contract structure since his free agency began. As recently as 2019, the right-hander insisted he’d only sign one-year contracts upon reaching the market, playing out his career in mercenary-esque, year-to-year fashion. He’s softened that stance this winter, as both he and Luba have voiced an openness to longer-term deals. The potential for opt-out provisions to be baked into any multi-year agreement could certainly impact negotiations as well.

Ultimately, there’s no way of knowing whether a short-term deal with a record annual rate would prove enticing enough for Bauer — if any team is even willing to make such an offer in the first place — or whether he’d prefer the security of a longer-term pact at a lower price point. The answer there is quite likely dependent on the team making the offer. Bauer has stressed on his YouTube channel that he’s seeking a “partnership” with a win-now team that will support his desire to grow his brand on social media and have an “honest” conversation about him pitching every fourth day. The Mets, Angels and Blue Jays have all been linked to Bauer in recent weeks, and other pitching-needy teams are surely at least keeping tabs on his market.

Central News & Rumors: E. Rosario, A. Rosario, Rodon, Lester, Kuhl

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The Brewers have shown interest in free-agent outfielder Eddie Rosario, according to Robert Murray of Fansided. Rosario, on the open market since the Twins non-tendered him in December, stands out as one of the most accomplished free-agent hitters remaining. The 29-year-old is a three-time 20-home run hitter who belted another 13 during a shortened 2020 season, though it’s unclear where he would fit in Milwaukee. The Brewers already appear to have their starting outfield figured out with Christian Yelich and Avisail Garcia flanking Lorenzo Cain, but if the universal designated hitter sticks around in 2021, Rosario could play a big role there.

  • Indians shortstop Amed Rosario is garnering trade interest, Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets. Cleveland acquired Rosario from the Mets as part of the teams’ Francisco Lindor trade earlier this month, but as Puma notes, the Indians also picked up fellow shortstop Andres Gimenez in that deal. As such, New York may be open to moving Rosario, once a star prospect whose major league career hasn’t gone according to plan so far. The 25-year-old has batted .268/.302/.403 with 32 home runs and 50 stolen bases in 1,564 plate appearances since he debuted in 2017.
  • The Cubs will be in attendance for free-agent left-hander Carlos Rodon’s workout this week, Bruce Levine of 670 The Score writes. Rodon has spent his entire career thus far in Chicago, where he has pitched to a 4.14 ERA/4.32 SIERA with a 22.6 percent strikeout rate and a 9.6 percent walk rate in 536 2/3 innings as a member of the White Sox. Rodon looked like a solid mid-rotation type earlier in his career, but the 28-year-old has declined since 2018 because of shoulder troubles and Tommy John surgery. He became a free agent when the White Sox non-tendered him in December.
  • If signed, Rodon could help the Cubs replace veteran southpaw Jon Lester in their rotation. Lester officially joined the Nationals on Wednesday, when he revealed to Bob Nightengale of USA Today and other reporters that the Cubs did make a late push to re-sign him. The details on the Cubs’ offer aren’t known, but the Nationals brought him in on a one-year, $5MM guarantee. Lester signed a six-year, $155MM deal with the Cubs before 2015, and he and the team enjoyed great success during that contract.
  • It’s a matter of when, not if, the Pirates will trade righty Chad Kuhl, per Stephen J. Nesbitt of The Athletic. Kuhl had a middling 2020 campaign after missing all of the prior season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, as he logged a 4.27 ERA/5.29 SIERA and recorded a 22.3 percent strikeout rate against an unappealing 14.2 percent walk rate in 46 1/3 innings. He has two years of control left and will earn $2.13MM in 2021.

Why I Don’t Use WHIP

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In an article in early January, I explained the pitching stats we use regularly here at MLBTR.  At the end, I briefly noted that I don’t use WHIP outside of fantasy baseball.  Several commenters inquired about that choice, so I decided a separate article might be helpful.

If you’re reading this, you probably already know that WHIP is (walks + hits) / innings pitched.  Hit-by-pitches aside, WHIP is a measure of baserunners allowed by a pitcher per inning.  In 2020, Zac Gallen allowed 25 walks and 55 hits in 72 innings for a 1.11 WHIP.  The calculation: (25 + 55) / 72 = 1.11.

In briefly researching how WHIP came to be, I found this fun Wall Street Journal article from 2009 by Nando Di Fino.  WHIP was conceived in 1979 by Daniel Okrent, better known as the man who invented fantasy baseball.  Okrent originally called the stat IPRAT – “Innings Pitched Ratio.” It was later renamed to the catchier WHIP.  Though in his 11-year-old article Di Fino wrote that WHIP “is generally accepted as a legitimate baseball statistic,” he also quotes then-Rays director of baseball operations Dan Feinstein explaining why the team did not use the stat.  In Di Fino’s words, this is “mostly because pitchers often can’t control the amount of hits that they give up.”

Sometimes, jamming together a couple of different stats into one can improve its usefulness.  I don’t feel that’s the case with WHIP, because of that hit component.  I’d rather see info about pitcher’s walks and hits allowed separately, because those are two very different things.

A pitcher’s ability to avoid walking batters is a real skill, and that’s why we cite BB% here at MLBTR.  For pitchers with at least 100 innings in a season from 2015-19, the year-to-year correlation of BB% was 0.598.  Knowing a starting pitcher’s walk rate in 2018 gave you a decent idea of what his walk rate would be in 2019.

Strikeout rate is even more of a concrete skill.  K% has a year-to-year correlation of 0.753.  If we know a pitcher’s K% and BB%, then almost everything else was a ball in play.  So let’s talk about batting average on balls in play, or BABIP.  Pitchers control BABIP to a small extent, and for a starting pitcher the year-to-year correlation is just 0.179.  There isn’t that much variation pitcher-to-pitcher in BABIP skill.  (As an aside, home run prevention matters as well, which is why we talk about groundball rate as a skill).

Going back to WHIP, its year-to-year correlation is 0.445.  To the degree that WHIP is repeatable, that is mostly owed to the repeatability of K% (since a K is never a hit) and BB% (half of WHIP).  The repeatability of WHIP is negatively affected by the hit component.

In my opinion, there isn’t a convincing reason to use WHIP.  Resident stat expert Matt Swartz sums it up this way: “If the question is how a pitcher performed retrospectively, actual ERA is the more logical stat to use.  If the question is how a pitcher will perform prospectively, WHIP doesn’t correlate that well with future ERA, and you can get to a better picture by looking at components.”

So, we’ll talk about what a player already did on a the field, and hits allowed are a big part of that.  Trevor Bauer gave up 41 hits in 73 innings in 2021, and it’s a big reason he posted a 1.73 ERA.  I’d rather see his walk rate (6.1%) and BABIP (.215) separated out, because I find that more informative both in considering what he already did and what he will do in the future.  If I simply told you he had a 0.79 WHIP, that would be less informative.

My goal in this post is simply to explain why I personally don’t use WHIP to evaluate pitchers, and those are the same reasons you’ve rarely seen it on MLBTR in our 15 years.  We’re all here because we love baseball.  The stats you look at should be whichever ones increase your enjoyment of the game.  Whether WHIP, WAR, wins, or something else does that for you, there’s no wrong answer.

Yankees Sign Corey Kluber

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JAN. 27: The Yankees have made the Kluber signing official.

JAN. 15, 7:49pm: It’s a one-year, $11MM pact, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports. That comes in just a bit south of MLBTR’s one-year, $12MM prediction.

7:37pm: It’s a done deal, pending a physical, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets. Kluber will earn upward of $10MM, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network.

7:27pm: The Yankees are finalizing a contract with free-agent right-hander Corey Kluber, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (Talkin Jake first reported the deal). Details aren’t known yet. Kluber is a client of Jet Sports Management.

After a couple of quiet months, the Yankees have certainly been active on Friday. Hours before the Kluber news came down, they made major progress toward re-signing star second baseman DJ LeMahieu for six years and $90MM. The 34-year-old Kluber won’t pull in that type of contract, but as a two-time American League Cy Young winner, he’s clearly a high-profile pickup for a Yankees team in need of help in their rotation.

During his peak years in Cleveland from 2014-18, Kluber averaged about 218 innings per season and combined for a stellar 2.85 ERA/2.99 SIERA with a 28.5 percent strikeout rate and a paltry 5.2 percent walk rate. There was no reason to expect a drop-off heading into 2019, but Kluber hasn’t been the same since then. He threw 35 2/3 innings in the first few weeks of that season and was tattooed by opposing offenses, who totaled 23 earned runs on 44 hits and 15 walks (38 strikeouts) against Kluber before he succumbed to a fractured right forearm on May 1. That proved to be Kluber’s final outing with Cleveland, which traded him to the Rangers for reliever Emmanuel Clase and outfielder Delino DeShields in December 2019.

Texas was banking on a rebound effort from Kluber, but it essentially received no contributions from him. He threw just one inning in his first start last season before exiting with shoulder tightness, and Kluber never took the mound again for the Rangers. The Rangers then declined Kluber’s $18MM option for 2021 in favor of a $1MM buyout, making him a free agent. That left Kluber to try to prove to clubs he was back to health, and he made that effort Wednesday with a showcase that the majority of major league teams attended. Kluber’s fastball topped out around 90 mph during that session, down a bit from his typical 91-92 range but not enough to scare away the Yankees.

Now that he’s on his way to the Bronx, Kluber will continue to work with Yankees director of health and performance Eric Cressey, who – as Joel Sherman of the New York Post notes – has been overseeing the former ace’s shoulder rehab. Kluber is also quite familiar with Yankees pitching coach Matt Blake, Cleveland’s ex-pitching coordinator and assistant director of pitching development.

The Yankees entered the offseason facing the potential loss of veteran righty Masahiro Tanaka, who remains a free agent. Reports have indicated the Yankees have not been aggressive in trying to re-sign Tanaka, so Kluber could end up as his replacement. At the moment, he’s a lock to be part of a season-opening rotation led by ace Gerrit Cole. The Yankees should get Luis Severino back from February 2020 Tommy John surgery at some point, though he probably won’t be ready to begin the season. So, barring other acquisitions, Deivi Garcia, Jordan Montgomery, Domingo German, Clarke Schmidt, Michael King and Jhoulys Chacin look as if they’ll be among those vying for starting jobs behind Cole and Kluber during the spring.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Yankees Re-Sign DJ LeMahieu

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JAN. 27: The Yankees have announced LeMahieu’s six-year deal. It includes full no-trade protection for the first two seasons and then limited no-trade rights for the next four, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. As Nightengale points out, because LeMahieu will have 1o-and-5 rights following 2023, the Yankees won’t be able to trade him after that without his permission. He’ll earn $15MM in each season of the contract, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets.

JAN. 15, 9:10am: It’ll be a six-year, $90MM contract for LeMahieu when finalized, as was first reported by Pat Ragazzo (Twitter link). The $90MM overall guarantee isn’t particularly surprising, but it is indeed an eye-opener to see that sum come over a six-year term rather than five or even four years.

That LeMahieu agreed to a lengthier pact is a boost for the Yankees, as the associated $15MM luxury hit will “only” put the team at about $195MM in terms of 2021 luxury-tax obligations. That leaves the club with as much as $14-15MM of space before reaching the $210MM luxury barrier.

8:52am: The Yankees’ preference was indeed to drive down the luxury-tax hit by lengthening the contract, tweets Bowden, though the precise length of the deal still isn’t clear.

8:17am: The Athletic’s Jim Bowden tweets that LeMahieu’s contract will be more than four years in length. That makes a five-year deal seem likeliest, barring an unexpected six-year arrangement at a comparable total but lower annual rate that is designed to lessen the luxury hit for the Yankees.

7:04am: After a months-long staredown, the Yankees are closing in on a new contract with second baseman DJ LeMahieu, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter). Terms of the potential agreement aren’t yet known, but the deal could be completed as soon as today, per Morosi. LeMahieu is represented by Wasserman.

DJ LeMahieu | Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports

LeMahieu, 32, has been the Yankees’ top priority all season. General manager Brian Cashman acknowledged as much a couple of weeks back, but the club has also seemingly been letting LeMahieu explore his options on the open market rather than emulating the Yankees of old and simply writing him a blank check up front. The interest between the two parties was mutual, and it’s long been apparent that the Yankees would have the opportunity to match any offer LeMahieu received elsewhere. The impending reunion will surely come at a loftier price than his initial deal, which proved to be a bargain; reports have recently suggested that LeMahieu has been looking to top Josh Donaldson’s four-year, $92MM contract — ideally on a five-year arrangement.

The focus on LeMahieu is more than understandable for the Yankees, who looked like an oddball fit for the longtime Rockies second baseman two years ago when he inked a two-year, $24MM contract to come to the Bronx. The Yankees already boasted a relatively full infield, but injuries and LeMahieu’s immediate, career-best production quickly thrust him into regular work in manager Aaron Boone’s lineup. The versatile LeMahieu logged action not only at second base but also at the infield corners, emerging not only as the Yankees’ most productive hitter in that time but as a bona fide MVP candidate in the American League.

During his two seasons in New York, LeMahieu has turned in an outstanding .336/.386/.536 batting line — including a superhuman .364/.421/.590 line in 2020’s truncated season. That .364 showing marked the second time in his career that LeMahieu has led the league in average — he won a batting title with the 2016 Rockies as well — but he’d never put together this type of power until landing in New York. Yankee Stadium proved to be the perfect fit for LeMahieu, who leads the Majors in opposite-field home runs over the past couple of seasons after fully taking advantage of his new home park’s short porch in right field.

That’s not to diminish LeMahieu’s production with the Yankees, of course. He remains one of the toughest players in all of baseball to strike out thanks to his superlative bat-to-ball skills, and LeMahieu has upped his hard-hit rate and exit velocities since his days at Coors Field. LeMahieu’s 12.7 percent strikeout rate is the seventh-lowest in all of baseball among qualified hitters over the past two seasons, and he has the eighth-lowest swinging-strike rate of any player in the Majors in that time.

A reunion with the Yankees means that LeMahieu will remain the primary second baseman, with Gleyber Torres reprising his role at shortstop. There’s been plenty of question about Torres’ ability to develop into a strong or even average defender at shortstop after a pair of seasons punctuated by miscues, but the club has publicly expressed confidence that Torres is up to the challenge.

LeMahieu and Torres, then, will be penciled in as the Yankees’ double-play tandem for the foreseeable future, with Gio Urshela and Luke Voit holding down the infield corners. That still leaves former Rookie of the Year runner-up Miguel Andujar without a clear path to everyday at-bats, though he still has a minor league option remaining and can also be worked in as an oft-used bench piece seeing time at third, first and in left field.

The fit in the lineup was always obvious, but the fit into the Yankees’ budget was another question. The Yanks, of course, have deeper pockets than just about any team in the league, but after last year’s franchise-record level of spending — the Yankees’ $108MM prorated payroll was larger than several teams’ full-season payroll would have been — owner Hal Steinbrenner has reportedly been intent on lowering the team’s payroll and dipping beneath the $210MM luxury tax threshold.

The potential free-agent departures of J.A. Happ, James Paxton, Brett Gardner and Masahiro Tanaka help to drive down that bottom line, as did Tommy Kahnle’s non-tender, but it’s been apparent for months that the Yankees weren’t going to look to replicate the aggressiveness that brought Gerrit Cole to New York on an MLB-record deal for a pitcher. Even without a single addition, the Yankees were projected just shy of $181MM in terms of luxury-tax obligations, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, and adding a likely $20MM+ salary for LeMahieu will eat up anywhere from two-thirds to three-quarters of the space that separates the Yankees and that competitive balance tax threshold.

The Yankees are still in need of some rotation depth even after signing Cole last winter. Luis Severino is expected back from Tommy John surgery but will clearly have his workload monitored. The same is true of righty Domingo German, who’ll be returning from a lengthy suspension under MLB’s domestic violence policy. Jordan Montgomery, top prospects Deivi Garcia and Clarke Schmidt, righty Mike King and swingman Luis Cessa are among the other options for Boone, but it’s clear that some veteran innings would prove quite beneficial.

Barring a trade to shed some payroll, however, it’s tough to see a way for the Yankees to both retain Tanaka and limbo underneath the luxury-tax bar. That reality, and some recent comments from Tanaka himself, have fueled speculation that the 32-year-old righty could return to Japan, leaving a considerable void on the Yankees’ starting staff. There are plenty of veteran options to be had on more affordable deals and various trade options to pursue, of course, and Cashman’s focus now seems likely to shift to solving that puzzle.

Padres Re-Sign Jurickson Profar

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JAN. 27: Bob Nightengale of USA Today has the full breakdown of the deal, which is now official: Profar will earn a $3.5MM salary and a $2.5MM signing bonus next season; 2022 includes a $6.5MM player option or a $1MM buyout; 2023 features a $7.5MM player option or a $1MM buyout; and Profar has a $10MM mutual option or a $1MM buyout for 2024. He’ll earn another $350K every time he’s traded.

JAN. 22: 10:32am: Profar’s contract contains an opt-out clause after each of the first two seasons, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.

10:02am: The Padres have agreed to re-sign infielder/outfielder Jurickson Profar on a three-year, $21MM contract, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). Profar is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Jurickson Profar | Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

A new deal with Profar marks the latest strike in an ultra-aggressive winter for the Padres, who have already acquired Blake Snell, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove on the trade market in addition to signing Korea Baseball Organization superstar Ha-Seong Kim on a four-year deal. Kim’s ability to bounce around the infield and support the trio of Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jake Cronenworth at any position likely means that Profar is again ticketed for more work on the outfield grass than in the infield, although his versatility will allow him to be deployed virtually anywhere skipper Jayce Tingler sees fit.

The three-year term on the Profar deal registers as a bit of a surprise, though the Padres had some competition for the soon-to-be 28-year-old. The Royals were known to have interest in Profar, and MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Red Sox “tried hard” to sign Profar before he ultimately returned to San Diego.

The 2020 season was Profar’s first with the Padres, who acquired him last winter in a deal with the A’s. Profar got out to a disastrous start to the season but rode a sizzling hot streak over the final three-plus weeks of the season to finish out the year with a .278/.343/.428 batting line.

Profar’s season is representative of the difficulty in evaluating players on the heels of such a short year; the end results look solid, but it also should be noted that as late into the season as Aug. 27, Profar was batting .181/.291/.319. That was surely a cause of some concern for some clubs, as was the fact that Profar ranked in the 23rd percentile or worse in terms of exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate, per Statcast.

That said, Profar was clearly still a fairly in-demand free agent. That’s plenty understandable given that back in 2013, he was regarded as the consensus No. 1 prospect in all of baseball. Profar rocketed through the Rangers’ system after being signed as an amateur out of Curacao, making his MLB debut at just 19 years old in the final weeks of the 2012 season. Unfortunately for both him and for the Rangers, a pair of shoulder injuries led to multiple surgeries, wiping out two full years of development.

Profar never established himself as a regular in Texas, struggling to find playing time behind a veteran infield that included the likes of Adrian Beltre and an in-his-prime Elvis Andrus. Profar had an above-average year at the plate in 2018 as a utility player but still found himself traded to Oakland that winter — a match that didn’t pan out whatsoever. The A’s picked up Profar in hopes that he could solidify second base for his remaining two years of team control, but he battled a borderline case of the yips that resulted in a slew of throwing errors and batted just .218/.310/.401 in 139 games. Oakland traded him to San Diego after that lone year.

Three-year deal notwithstanding, Profar is in many regards still something of a project. The 2020 and 2018 seasons are the only two years he’s ever been at least average at the plate, and as this past season showed, he’s yet to find much consistency at the dish. That said, it was Padres general manager A.J. Preller who was running the Rangers’ international scouting operations when Profar originally signed as a 16-year-old. Based on not only the surprising size of the contract but also the multiple opt-out provisions, Preller seemingly remains a firm believer that Profar can match or exceed last year’s composite output.

That said, the inclusion of the two opt-out clauses effectively saps any upside for the Padres in this contract. If Profar reverts to his ways as a light-hitting utility piece without a position where he’s a true plus defender, the Friars will be on the hook for the full $21MM. If he, at any point, performs at an above-average level, he’ll surely head back to the open market in search of a larger deal — especially given his relative youth. The best outcome for the Padres would be for Profar to rake in 2021 and head back to market, and this contract structure is essentially a $21MM bet that that’ll be the case.

The Padres were already projected to open the season with a roughly $167MM payroll prior to their new deal with Profar. That would’ve been a franchise-record in its own right, but Friars ownership will continue to buck the common trend of shedding payroll taken by most clubs this winter, instead spending at new levels in their effort to dethrone the Dodgers, who have won eight consecutive division titles and, of course, toppled the Rays in the 2020 World Series. The $7MM annual value on Profar’s deal also pushed the Padres to more than $177MM in luxury-tax obligations.

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