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Archives for January 2021
Five Teams Showing Interest In Alex Colome
There hasn’t been much public buzz about Alex Colome’s market this winter, but the former All-Star has been attracting some attention in free agency. Darren Wolfson of SKOR North (via Twitter) reports that the Twins “recently inquired” about Colome’s services, while FanSided’s Robert Murray (Twitter links) adds that the Nationals, Red Sox, Astros, and White Sox have also shown interest.
For the last five seasons, Colome has been a solid and occasionally dominant ninth-inning option, racking up 138 saves for the Rays, Mariners, and White Sox since the start of the 2016 season. With Chicago in 2020, Colome posted just an 0.81 ERA over 22 1/3 innings, while posting a largely impressive slate of Statcast metrics (in particular finishing in the 95th percentile in barrel percentage). ERA predictors, however, weren’t nearly as impressed with his work, as Colome’s 2.97 FIP, 4.26 xFIP, and 4.44 SIERA all reflected his ordinary 6.4 K/9, as well as some good fortune in the form of a .200 BABIP and 86.4% strand rate. He also didn’t allow a single home run last year, which isn’t likely to be duplicated over a full season.
Colome largely relies on a two-pitch arsenal of a cutter (which he has thrown over 70% of the time in each of the last two seasons) and a four-seam fastball that clocks around the 94.4mph range. It’s hard to argue with results, of course, though teams could be wary of committing big money to the 32-year-old Colome going forward if they feel his advanced metrics will start catching up to his on-field numbers.
That said, the lack of Colome updates to this point could also be par for the course during an offseason that hasn’t seen much high-priced movement in the relief market. Trevor May’s two-year, $15.5MM deal with the Mets represents the only significant contract given to a relief pitcher this winter, and such names as Liam Hendriks, Brad Hand, Blake Treinen, and Trevor Rosenthal continue to wait for their next teams (not to mention many other prominent relievers who could be available in trades).
As we inch closer to the projected start of Spring Training, it isn’t surprising that we’ll hear more news about interest in Colome and other relievers as teams start to get aggressive about filling holes in the bullpen. All five of the teams linked to Colome have needs at the back of their respective pen, even if a provisional closer is already in place to handle the bulk of save opportunities. For the White Sox in particular, there has been speculation that the team could elevate Aaron Bummer or Evan Marshall to closer if Colome went elsewhere, though it would make sense that Chicago would welcome back a familiar closer (at the right price, of course) if the Sox want some ninth-inning experience for what they hope will be a deeper run into the postseason.
Haruki Nishikawa Not Expected To Sign With MLB Team This Offseason
3:45 pm: Nishikawa will not reach an agreement with an MLB club before this afternoon’s 4:00 pm CST deadline, per a report from Yahoo! Japan (link in Japanese). He’ll instead return to the Fighters for a tenth season in 2021.
10:52 am: In early December, the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters made center fielder Haruki Nishikawa available to major league teams via the posting system. That opened a 30-day window for MLB clubs to work out an agreement with Nishikawa; otherwise, the 28-year-old would return to the Fighters for at least another season.
Today marks the final day of Nishikawa’s posting window, as was first noted last month by Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). While no one knows if the left-handed hitter will put pen to paper in the coming hours, it seems he has attracted the attention of a few MLB teams. Japan’s Nikkan Sports reported earlier this week (Japanese-language link) that the Astros, Blue Jays, Cardinals and Diamondbacks were among those with interest in the outfielder. It isn’t clear if any of those four (or any other MLB club) has actually put forth a formal offer, however.
Over parts of nine seasons at Japan’s highest level, Nishikawa has hit .286/.382/.394. He’s coming off a very strong 2020 seasons with the Fighters, wherein he slashed .306/.430/.396 with more walks than strikeouts across 523 plate appearances. Nishikawa has never been much of a power threat, but he’s consistently hit for high batting averages and drawn plenty of walks.
If Nishikawa were to come to an agreement with an MLB team, the signing team would owe a release fee to the Fighters. That fee, which comes on top of the contract paid to the player himself, is equal to 20 percent of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5 percent of the next $25MM and 15 percent of any dollars thereafter. Nishikawa’s track record in NPB is lesser than that of countryman Shogo Akiyama, who inked a three-year, $21MM deal with the Reds last winter. It’d be a surprise to see Nishikawa top that mark, so in all likelihood his posting fee will fall squarely into that first tier, 20-percent bracket. Nishikawa’s former Fighters teammate, right-hander Kohei Arihara, signed with the Rangers last week.
Two Years Ago, The Twins Signed An Elite Hitter
Today marks the two-year anniversary of the Twins announcing a free agent deal with Nelson Cruz. The then-38-year-old received a one-year, $14.3MM guarantee with a $12MM club option covering the 2020 season.
At the time, Cruz was coming off an incredible four-year run with the Mariners. He had hit .284/.362/.546 during his time in Seattle. By measure of weighted runs created plus, the slugger was the sport’s eighth-most productive hitter between 2015-18 (minimum 600 plate appearances). Nevertheless, Cruz’s age and lack of defensive value as a full-time designated hitter limited him to a single year guarantee.
After a surprising Wild Card berth in 2017, the Twins slumped to a 78-84 season in 2018. Surely, the front office hoped that signing Cruz would install an elite bat into the middle of the order and help Minnesota’s lineup emerge as one of the best in the league. That’s precisely how things played out.
If anything, the already-great Cruz took his offensive game to another level in 2019. He hit a career-best .311/.392/.639 with 41 home runs in just 521 plate appearances. As a team, Minnesota slugged a record 307 homers that year en route to an AL Central title. That made exercising the 2020 option a no-brainer. Cruz again mashed at an elite level and helped the Twins to their second consecutive division championship this past season.
Now 40 years old, Cruz is again a free agent, facing the same questions he faced last time he was on the open market (and the time before that). He offers nothing defensively and is among the oldest players in the sport. Yet Cruz has shown no signs of decline at the plate; on the contrary, he’s coming off arguably the two best offensive seasons of his career.
Another deal between the Twins and Cruz makes plenty of sense. Minnesota again looks like one of the best teams in the American League, although the pursuit of another division title looks more difficult than ever thanks to the White Sox’s emergence as a legitimate contender. The past two division crowns haven’t led to any postseason success, which the Twins no doubt hope to change in 2021. The parties have remained in contact this winter. No deal has come together to this point amidst uncertainty about whether the DH will expand to the National League, which would obviously open up Cruz’s market.
Marlins Seeking Corner Outfield Help
The Marlins are looking to add to their corner outfield mix, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). Ideally, that would take the form of a left-handed hitter capable of playing right field, per Heyman.
Miami hasn’t been tied to any specific outfielders this offseason, but a look at the free agent options offers a handful of speculative possibilities. Marcell Ozuna tops the market, but it’d be quite a surprise if the Marlins were willing to spend at the level it’d take to bring the slugger back. Michael Brantley and Joc Pederson would each be significant upgrades but themselves seem likely to land solid multi-year deals the Marlins may not want to match.
The third tier of the market offers plenty of potential low-cost corner outfield additions, a few of whom were non-tendered by their former clubs. Kyle Schwarber and Eddie Rosario are left-handed bats who have established themselves as above-average hitters in recent seasons. Both have much more experience in left field (so does Brantley, for that matter) but could theoretically be moved to right if the team were bullish enough on their offensive abilities. Josh Reddick remains a capable lefty hitter with plenty of right field experience. Nomar Mazara also fits the lefty-swinging right field profile and is still just 25. He’s never lived up to his former prospect hype, though, and is coming off a horrible season with the White Sox.
It’s worth noting that Brett Gardner is a free agent after his option was bought out by the Yankees. Garnder isn’t a right fielder, but he hits left-handed and has ties to a handful of Marlins’ executives (most obviously CEO Derek Jeter) from his time in the Bronx. Matt Joyce played for Miami this past season and is also available, although he might be looking at a minor-league deal after hitting .252/.351/.331.
As far as in-house options go, Miami has plenty of names but little certainty on the grass. The team seems set to give regular run to Corey Dickerson in one corner outfield spot (preferably left). Starling Marté is locked in as the everyday center fielder. Garrett Cooper has hit well and comes with a bit of corner outfield experience, but he was solely a first baseman in 2020 and has a rather lengthy injury history. Harold Ramírez missed almost all of last season due to injury. The 40-man roster is otherwise littered with current or former top prospects (Jesús Sánchez, Monte Harrison, Lewis Brinson, Magneuris Sierra among them) with no track record of MLB production.
Trevor Bauer Had Meeting With Blue Jays
In the latest chapter of Trevor Bauer’s unconventional trip through free agency, the right-hander revealed in a video that he had a call set to talk with the Blue Jays — specifically mentioning that he planned to talk with their pitching coach (Pete Walker) and high performance coach (presumably VP of high performance Angus Mugford).
While many fans have had some fun with the fact that the Blue Jays have been linked to virtually every free agent on the market this winter, Bauer’s meeting with them is still plenty notable. Few clubs are expected to be major spenders this winter, but Toronto is among the likeliest teams to sign a major free agent. The Blue Jays’ current $84MM projected payroll (via FanGraphs/Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez) is about half the franchise-record $163MM, set back in 2017.
Beyond that flexibility, the Toronto front office — headed up by president Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins — is quite familiar with Bauer. Both Atkins and Shapiro were in the Indians organization when Cleveland originally acquired Bauer from the Diamondbacks; Shapiro was the team’s president at that point and Atkins the director of player development.
Among top-tier free agents, the Blue Jays have been most prominently linked to outfielder George Springer in recent weeks. The Jays reported to be one of two finalists to sign Springer. The Mets, the other apparent Springer finalist, have been tied to Bauer in their own right, although Springer is said to be New York’s priority at this time.
Toronto’s current rotation features Hyun Jin Ryu, Robbie Ray, Tanner Roark, Ross Stripling and highly touted 24-year-old Nate Pearson. Penciling Bauer into that mix alongside Ryu would give them a formidable one-two punch atop the rotation with plenty of upside behind them. Ryu is coming off consecutive Top 3 finishes in Cy Young voting, while Bauer of course won the National League Cy Young Award in 2020.
MLBTR Poll: Grading The Yu Darvish Trade
Right-hander Yu Darvish came close to winning his first Cy Young award last season, finishing second in the voting to Trevor Bauer, but that wasn’t enough to keep him in a Cubs uniform. The Cubs decided last Sunday to trade Darvish to the Padres in a deal that was officially completed earlier this week. Chicago received five players in return for Darvish and catcher Victor Caratini, though whether the team made the right call is certainly up for debate.
In moving Darvish, the cost-cutting Cubs saved almost all of the $62MM remaining ($59MM, to be exact) on the six-year, $126MM contract they gave the former Ranger and Dodger before 2018. Caratini, meanwhile, is only due a little over $1MM next season via arbitration, and he won’t be eligible for free agency until after 2023. So, in the end, the Cubs let go of a front-line starter and a solid, inexpensive catcher in this deal. The Padres, who are clearly pushing for a World Series, should benefit in at least the near term. After all, they upgraded their roster – one that went 37-23 in 2020 – without surrendering any of their absolute best prospects.
For parting with Darvish and Caratini, the Cubs received a bit of immediate help in righty Zach Davies, who was outstanding in his lone season with the Padres last year. But the 27-year-old Davies is only controllable through next season, meaning he may not be a long-term piece for the Cubs, and the ex-Brewer has been more of a solid starter than a top-of-the-line hurler for most of his career. In other words, the Cubs can’t realistically expect the 2021 version of Davies to turn in production similar to the output Darvish gave them last season.
Along with Davies, the Cubs secured some good prospects in a pair of shortstops – Reginald Preciado and Yeison Santana – as well as two outfielders in Owen Caissie and Ismael Mena. All four ranked among the top 20 farmhands in a very good Padres system at the time of the trade. MLB.com now places Preciado 10th, Caissie 11th, Santana 17th and Mena 18th among Cubs prospects. The Cubs are dreaming on those four eventually turning into legitimate major leaguers, but even if that does happen, it’s going to take some time. Aside from Santana, who turned 20 last month, every member of the group is a teenager.
(Poll links for app users: Padres, Cubs)
Checking In On Last Season’s Worst Rotations
After breaking down how last season’s five lowest-scoring offenses look now, we’ll do the same here with the five rotations that allowed the most earned runs in 2020…
Tigers (6.37 ERA/5.53 FIP, 8.04 K/9, 3.91 BB/9):
- The Tigers received solid production from Spencer Turnbull and … nobody else last season. Matt Boyd, who was a coveted trade chip before the campaign, imploded; Michael Fulmer had a rough year in his return from Tommy John surgery; and high-end prospects Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize couldn’t keep runs off the board. Turnbull, Boyd and Fulmer are all coming back in 2021, while Skubal, Mize and fellow prospect Matt Manning should factor into the mix. Detroit also has a newcomer in former Marlins starter Jose Urena, whom the Tigers signed to a $3.25MM guarantee late last month. Urena was effective in Miami from 2017-18, but his numbers have gone off the rails since then.
Angels (5.52 ERA/4.78 FIP, 8.68 K/9, 3.52 BB/9):
- Over two months into the offseason, Angels fans are surely awaiting the acquisition of a high-profile starter. The team hasn’t done anything to improve its rotation thus far, though the group isn’t devoid of potential as it is. Dylan Bundy enjoyed a long-awaited breakout in 2020 – his first year as an Angel – Andrew Heaney stayed healthy and performed pretty well, and Griffin Canning had a promising sophomore season. Those three are locks for starting jobs in 2021, but the rest is up in the air (will Shohei Ohtani finally regain his health as a pitcher? Will Jaime Barria stick in the rotation after a bounce-back season?). With that in mind, odds are the Angels will add a starter before next season, whether that means splurging on Trevor Bauer or shopping at lower tiers of the market.
Braves (5.51 ERA/4.98 FIP, 8.01 K/9, 4.04 BB/9):
- The Braves’ status as a bottom-feeding rotation is deceiving because of the injury adversity they faced. They barely got anything from Mike Soroka, a 2019 ace who tore his Achilles early in the season, while Cole Hamels pitched once (on Sept. 16) because of nagging arm issues. Soroka will be back next season to join Max Fried and Ian Anderson as one of the best young trios in the game next season. Hamels is now on the open market and unlikely to return, but the Braves replaced him with veteran standout Charlie Morton in free agency. They also grabbed Drew Smyly on the market. While Smyly has gone through an up-and-down career, in part because of injuries, he was terrific as a Giant in 2020. The Braves are banking on Smyly continuing to roll in their uniform.
Nationals (5.38 ERA/5.17 FIP, 8.55 K/9, 3.17 BB/9):
- As was the case with the division-rival Braves, the Nationals’ rotation couldn’t get through 2020 without key injuries. There wasn’t a more notable victim than Stephen Strasburg, who threw all of five innings after winning 2019 World Series MVP honors and re-signing with the Nats on a seven-year, $245MM contract. The good news is that Strasburg is on track for next season after undergoing surgery for carpal tunnel syndrome. If healthy, Strasburg, Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin should return to being an elite trio. There are some issues after those three, however. Joe Ross will come back after opting out last season, but he posted an ERA north of 5.00 in each year from 2017-19. Erick Fedde and Austin Voth were tattooed in similar fashion in 2020. General manager Mike Rizzo has spoken this winter of adding a No. 4/5 type of starter, which seems like a necessity.
Mets (5.37 ERA/4.21 FIP, 8.55 K/9, 3.17 BB/9):
- The Mets were yet another NL East team whose rotation battled health-related misfortune in 2020. Noah Syndergaard didn’t take the mound after undergoing TJ surgery in March, while the team also got zero contributions from Marcus Stroman because of an opt out. Things are looking better for 2021, though, with Syndergaard set to return at some point (perhaps in June) and Stroman coming back after accepting the Mets’ $18.9MM qualifying offer. Stroman, all-world ace Jacob deGrom and David Peterson are in line for starting spots at the opening of next season. The same could potentially be said of Steven Matz, whom the Mets elected against non-tendering, though he was terrible in 2020. Thanks in part to Matz’s struggles last year, it seems likely the Mets will pick up at least one established starter in the coming months. Bauer seems like a possibility when considering new owner Steve Cohen’s deep pockets, but even someone like Jake Odorizzi or Masahiro Tanaka could go a long way in bolstering New York’s rotation.
Latest On Phillies, J.T. Realmuto
Jan. 1: NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury takes a fresh look at Realmuto’s market, running through several speculative matches for him in free agency. While the Phils have yet to make an offer, Salisbury writes that given Realmuto’s “fondness” for Philadelphia, it’s likely he’d circle back and give them a chance to match or top any offers received elsewhere.
Dec. 29: The market for J.T. Realmuto has moved at a glacial pace. The lone major development came in the form of a four-year deal between Realmuto’s top alternative, James McCann, and one of his top suitors, the Mets. Beyond the Mets, Realmuto has been linked to the Blue Jays, Nationals and Angels — to varying extents.
The incumbent Phillies, of course, remain a fit. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweeted last night that Realmuto remains “the priority” for the Phils under new president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and GM Sam Fuld. However, NBC Sports Philadelphia’s John Clark reports this morning that while the Phillies have had plenty of conversations with Realmuto’s camp, a formal offer has never been put forth. That differs from reporting by Heyman and others who’ve suggested that the Phillies have a standing offer on the table.
It’s certainly possible there are some semantics at play. The Phils can make their comfort level known and indicate their breaking point without presenting an actual offer. Similarly, Realmuto’s agents at CAA can set general expectations without giving a firm number they need the Phillies (or another club) to meet. That said, it still registers as something of a surprise that, after nearly a year of conversations dating back to Spring Training, the Phils have apparently yet to give Realmuto the opportunity to put pen to paper.
While the trade market for star-caliber pitchers has been ramping up and we’re simultaneously seeing high-profile international players reach the end of their posting windows, the market for top-level MLB free agents seems no closer to a crescendo than it was this time last month. Some form of resolution in the Yankees’ pursuit of DJ LeMahieu or the Mets’ pursuit of George Springer could have a cascade effect that lends clarity to Realmuto’s market, but there’s no indication that such a sequence will happen anytime soon.
Yankees, Socrates Brito Agree To Minor League Deal
The Yankees have agreed to a minor league contract with outfielder Socrates Brito, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. The MAS+ client will be invited to Major League Spring Training.
Brito, 28, signed a minor league deal with the Pirates last year and opened the shortened season in Pittsburgh’s 60-man player pool at their alternate training site in Altoona. However, Brito opted out of the remainder of the year in September following the tragic loss of his brother to Covid-19.
He’ll now join a Yankees club that has seen plenty of outfield injuries over the past couple of seasons, which could afford him another opportunity in the big leagues. Brito has spent parts of four seasons in the Majors between Arizona and Toronto, but he’s yet to replicate the solid production he posted in his first cup of coffee when he batted .303/.324/.455 in 18 games with the 2015 D-backs. Brito carries just a .525 OPS in 218 Major League plate appearances, but he’s notched a much more impressive .297/.345/.491 batting line in 1541 plate appearances at the Triple-A level.
