Archives for January 2021

Latest On Reds’ Trade Discussions

By TC Zencka | January 11, 2021 at 11:38am CDT

The Reds and Nationals are known to have discussed a possible deal around third baseman Eugenio Suarez, and the failure to complete a deal seems to hinge on the Nats’ unwillingness to part with top pitching prospects Jackson Rutledge and Cade Cavalli, per MLB Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Rutledge and Cavalli were the Nats’ top draft choices in the past two drafts. It’s not a surprise that Washington would hold on tight, as their system isn’t known for tremendous depth, and they traditionally value starting pitching. Besides, ace Max Scherzer will be a free agent after this season, and at some point, the Nats will need to graduate top pitching talent in order to maintain the standard they have set in the rotation. Any deal with the Nats would probably have to center on Carter Kieboom. If the Reds believe in Kieboom’s ability to play shortstop, he would make sense as a starting point for a deal.

The Reds seem more open to the idea of moving Mike Moustakas or Nicholas Castellanos, but neither has generated as much trade interest as Suarez, tweets Heyman. Despite an uninspired 104 wRC+ in 2020, Suarez remains the Reds’ most-compelling bat. A .214 BABIP was down by almost 100 points from his career average, and a shoulder injury might have slowed his production. His 29.0 percent strikeout rate is a touch high, but Suarez still boasts patience (13.0 percent walk rate) and power (.268 isolated power), as well as long-term control on a reasonable contract. The 29-year-old Suarez will make $10.79MM in 2021 before three years at $11.29MM and a $15MM club option in 2025. Relative to Moustakas (three years, $16MM AAV with club option) and Castellanos (three years, $15.3MM AAV with mutual option), Suarez’s deal looks like a bargain, and he’ll be just 33-years-old at the end of the 2024 season.

The most likely place for the Reds to add from outside the organization remains shortstop, as their 2021 starting shortstop doesn’t appear to be on the 40-man roster at present, writes the Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans. The organization clearly does not view Senzel as an option there, and Jose Garcia likely needs more the in the minors after being rushed into action in 2020. That could mean trading for a shortstop, but with so many options still available on the market – Marcus Semien, Andrelton Simmons, Freddy Galvis, Didi Gregorius – free agency remains their likeliest route to add an infielder.

Francisco Lindor Open To Extension, But Won’t Negotiate During Season

By TC Zencka | January 11, 2021 at 10:42am CDT

The New York Mets introduced new shortstop Francisco Lindor to the media today via a zoom call. The video has been provided here by Newsday.

Of course, one of the topics discussed early in the conversation was the possibility of a long-term extension. Lindor and his representation at SportsMeter have yet to begin contract negotiations with the Mets. That said, Lindor isn’t against the possibility of staying in New York long-term. Per the Athletic’s Tim Britton (via Twitter), Lindor said, “I live life day by day. I’m extremely happy and excited about what’s happening right now, but I haven’t really sat down and talked to anybody (about an extension). I have never been against an extension…. We’ll see what happens.”

Lindor made clear, however, that if he does sign a new deal, he expects to do so before the seasons begins, per Britton and others. That’s been Lindor’s policy in the past, and he does not intend to change his stance this year. With spring training a little more than a month away, the Mets and Lindor have enough time to hammer out an extension, but they have a smaller window than the Mets might prefer.

Lindor was acquired last week from the Indians after Cleveland failed to reach an extension with their star shortstop. Lindor acknowledged that both sides made a good effort to get an extension done, but it just didn’t happen, per the Athletic’s Zack Meisel (via Twitter). The Indians offer never got as high as $300MM, and any extension Lindor signs will certainly cross that threshold. Despite the breakdown in negotiations and the eventual trade, Lindor had only positive things to say about his time in Cleveland, notes Bob Nightengale of USA TODAY (via Twitter).

Quick Hits: Manny Ramirez, Nationals, Sportsbook At Nats Park

By TC Zencka | January 11, 2021 at 9:29am CDT

The Sydney Blue Sox of the Australian Baseball League announced the release of Manny Ramirez today. The ABL has only been able to play two games of their season because of COVID shutdowns, and Ramirez had yet to appear because of an oblique injury. The language used in the initial press release announcing Ramirez’s injury caused some confusion, as it claimed Ramirez was out “due to ongoing sensitive and confidential medical reasons”, per Christian Nicolussi of The Sydney Morning Herald. Ramirez retired from Major League Baseball in 2011 after testing positive for a banned substance and receiving a 100-game ban, but he insists there is nothing untoward about his current circumstance beyond a strained oblique. Manny plans to stay in Australia for the time being. Returning stateside…

The Nationals added some serious thunder to their lineup in the form of Kyle Schwarber and Josh Bell, but they could use someone with an offensive profile more similar to the departed Adam Eaton, writes Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. Without a designated hitter in the National League, Eaton’s defensive position will go to Juan Soto, with Schwarber in left. Zuckerman’s looking for a “grinder” who runs well, gets on base, and makes contact. To Zuckerman’s point, after their new big four of Soto, Schwarber, Bell, and Trea Turner, the Nats project to field a bottom half of the lineup that may struggle to get on base. Yan Gomes (5.7 percent) Starlin Castro (5.0 percent), and Victor Robles (5.3 percent) all post subpart walk rats for their careers. Josh Harrison will get playing time as the first man off the bench, but his 4.1 percent walk rate won’t help in that regard, nor will youngster Luis Garcia, who profiles similarly to Castro and Harrison as a contact-first infielder. Carter Kieboom shows some promise in this regard (12.7 percent walk rate), but the 23-year-old third baseman hasn’t hit enough through 165 career plate appearances (54 wRC+) to guarantee playing time. Andrew Stevenson could be their internal answer if the DH does come to the National League. Stevenson fits the “grinder” profile to a tee.
Staying in the nation’s capitol, the Nationals are partnering with BetMGM to open a sportsbook at Nats Park this season, per Scott Allen of the Washington Post. When the bill to legalize sports betting was passed in DC in 2018, one stipulation was that sporting arenas would have their own sportsbook, making third-party betting apps unavailable within a two-block radius. That will now be the zone for which the Nats new sportsbook – and associated mobile app – will be available. The brick-and-mortar will take over the “Center Field Social” space at N St. and Half St. NE, right off the metro and closest to the busiest stadium entrance in centerfield, though it’s not directly accessible from inside the stadium.

KBO’s NC Dinos To Sign Wes Parsons

By TC Zencka | January 11, 2021 at 7:39am CDT

The NC Dinos of the KBO have announced the signing of right-hander Wes Parsons. He will now begin the process of completing a physical and traveling to Changwon to self-isolate before joining the team.

The 28-year-old right-hander can earn up to $600K in the form of a $320K base salary, $80K signing bonus, and $200K in incentives, writes Yoo Hee-ho of the Yonhap News Agency. Parsons will join the Dinos rotation. With Drew Rucinski and Aaron Altherr already on board, the Dinos now have a full slate of foreign players for the 2021 season. The Dinos are embarking on their title defense season after winning their first-ever KBO championship last year.

Parsons originally signed with the Atlanta Braves in 2012 as an undrafted amateur free agent. He made his big league debut in 2018 for the Braves. His five-inning outing was his only appearance of the season. After 17 appearances spanning 15 1/3 innings with a 3.52 ERA/6.08 FIP in 2019, the Rockies selected Parsons off waivers. He made another 15 appearances in Colorado, pitching to a 6.98 ERA/7.09 FIP across 19 1/3 innings. Though Parsons struggled in the Majors, he produced better results in Triple-A: he worked to a 2.86 ERA/3.27 FIP with 8.6 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 along with a 56.8% groundball rate in 2019.

Quick Hits: TV Contracts, Sugano, Orioles, Pruitt

By Mark Polishuk and Anthony Franco | January 11, 2021 at 7:25am CDT

Major League Baseball is bracing for a reduction in rights fees in negotiations with ESPN on a new television contract, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required). Current discussions surround a seven-year deal that would see ESPN pay approximately $550MM per season in exchange for the right to continue to broadcast Sunday Night Baseball, the Home Run Derby, and a to-be-determined number of postseason games. As Rosenthal notes, this will be a rather significant reduction from the parties’ last rights contract, which covered eight years at $700MM per season. That’s a disappointing turn for MLB, which had picked up considerable increases in rights fees (relative to previous contracts) from both Turner and FOX in recent years.

Trevor Bauer Discusses Free Agency

By Mark Polishuk | January 10, 2021 at 10:22pm CDT

Trevor Bauer has relied heavily on social media to keep fans aware of his trip through free agency, and the right-hander shared his latest thoughts in a new YouTube video detailing his top priorities in finding a new team. Some of these sentiments have been shared by Bauer in past interviews, though it is certainly worth checking in to see what the offseason’s top free agent is looking for, particularly since the free agent market as a whole has yet to really develop as we approach the middle of January.

To begin with, Bauer says that geography and market size aren’t big factors in his decision-making process. The Los Angeles native seemingly doesn’t mind one way or the other about playing close to home, and as Bauer points out, his online presence allows him to publicize himself and his brand from anywhere in North America, no matter the size of his next team’s media market.

What is important, however, is that team’s willingness to allow Bauer to continue his attempts at growing a brand and being more visible, as well as a willingness to include teammates in those endeavors (if they so choose) as part of his efforts to grow broader interest in baseball. It all ties into Bauer’s desire for “a partnership” with his next team, and a two-way effort by both sides.

In regards to his personal training methods and data-driven approach, the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner wants “to be able to be with an organization that values those things, that can give me information that I can learn from and increase my knowledge base and my understanding of the game. But I also want an organization that’s open to some of the things that I’m doing and can learn from me.”

For instance, as it relates to Bauer’s oft-stated desire to pitch every fourth day, he isn’t insistent that his team deploy him in such a fashion, but simply that the team be open to seriously considering the possibility. Naturally, Bauer’s plan will hinge on how his pitching on shorter rest could impact the rest of a rotation — “I don’t want to ever take away from my fellow players’ ability to go out and do their job to the best of their ability,” Bauer said, since the point is to get “everybody performing at a higher level.”

Since Bauer feels he’ll be “as good or better” pitching on three days’ rest, however, he sees this ability as a plus to a pitching staff. Depending on a team’s needs, Bauer pitching more often could help address multiple situations, as he notes that it could help other pitchers who perform better with more rest, or pitchers who are on innings limits.

Particularly coming off an abbreviated 2020 season and questions about how many pitchers will now have to rebuild arm strength for a longer 2021 campaign, Bauer’s argument is certainly persuasive. He also said that the Reds, his former team, were “great about actually having that discussion” about potentially making more frequent starts in 2020, though Bauer ended up pitching only once last season on three days’ rest (delivering one of his best outings of the year).

Aside from mentioning pitching for the Reds, Indians, and Diamondbacks over his career, Bauer didn’t provide any specifics about particular teams who might be candidates to sign him, or any details about his contractual demands, whether they be longer-term or shorter-term deals. He restated that he wants to play for a team that will make an aggressive push to contend every season (“My career is too short to really be part of a rebuilding window. I just don’t want to do that.”) and he wants “to be fairly compensated for my value,” which covers both what he offers a team based on past track record and what he’ll offer going forward in projected future performance.

Broadly, Bauer has a simple overall goal for the next step of his career: “I want to be happy.” While quite probably not a sign that Bauer is exploring a return to Cincinnati or Cleveland, Bauer did say that over “the last couple of years…I’ve enjoyed playing baseball a lot more than I have earlier in my professional career. I don’t want to go back to being miserable playing the game I love.”

Latest On DJ LeMahieu’s Market

By Mark Polishuk | January 10, 2021 at 8:45pm CDT

The stalemate between the Yankees and DJ LeMahieu isn’t showing any signs of ending, and it may have opened the door for other teams to re-enter the hunt. According to Yahoo Sports’ Tim Brown, LeMahieu has “asked his representatives to re-engage with teams that have previously shown the most interest…and to reconnect with teams that reached out early in the free agent period.”

This group includes at least six teams — the Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, Dodgers, Mets, and Red Sox. The Astros and (maybe?) the Nationals were also linked to LeMahieu earlier this winter, so it’s fair to assume some new calls may have been placed to those teams. Of the six clubs cited, it was already known that the Mets, Dodgers, and Jays were in on LeMahieu, with Toronto mentioned as the batting champion’s most fervent suitor apart from the Yankees.

This is the first time, however, that the Red Sox, Braves, and Cardinals have been linked to LeMahieu, opening up an intriguing new set of possibilities. All three teams were among those who had the early interest in LeMahieu, however, so it could be that those were simply due diligence check-ins, or plans may have changed as the winter market has developed. That said, due to some feeling earlier in the offseason that a LeMahieu/Yankees reunion was inevitable, more teams may now make a more serious push if they have a sense that LeMahieu may actually sign elsewhere.

Not much seems to have changed with LeMahieu’s asking price, as Brown reports that LeMahieu is looking for “at least” five years and $110MM. Previous reports indicated a similar price from LeMahieu’s camp, with the Yankees’ top offer apparently falling short by more than $25MM. The Cardinals may not be willing to spend much this offseason. The Braves could be in somewhat of the same situation after already investing in Charlie Morton and Drew Smyly, though Atlanta has a lot of salary coming off the books following the 2021 season. Boston has the spending capacity but the team wasn’t thought to be shopping at the top of the free agent market this winter, in part because signing a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent like LeMahieu would cost a draft pick.

The acquisition of Francisco Lindor might also take the Mets out of the LeMahieu hunt, and longtime Dodger Justin Turner has been cited as Los Angeles’ top choice to handle third base (even if Turner’s ask for a four-year contract is very likely to go unfulfilled). It isn’t known what Toronto’s top offer to LeMahieu is or was, but since the Jays are reportedly willing to give a similar contract to George Springer, they could pivot by putting that offer on the table for LeMahieu.

Several virtual meetings are planned between LeMahieu and various teams over the coming week, Brown writes, so we could have more clarity on the All-Star’s situation soon. At this juncture, it’s hard to say where LeMahieu might end up, or if perhaps other mystery teams could emerge. Of course, LeMahieu could also wind up with the Yankees after all, if New York feels it needs to increase its offer in response to any additional pressure from one or more clubs.

MLBTR Chat Transcript

By Mark Polishuk | January 10, 2021 at 7:59pm CDT

Click here to read the transcript of tonight’s live baseball chat.

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Francisco Lindor Trade

By Anthony Franco | January 10, 2021 at 3:00pm CDT

The Mets and Indians made perhaps the biggest trade of the offseason earlier this week. Star shortstop Francisco Lindor and right-hander Carlos Carrasco are now Mets. They represent the biggest pair of additions for a New York club that has been expected all offseason to pursue star-level talent.

Lindor, of course, was seen as a near-lock to be moved all winter. The Indians seemingly never came close to working out an extension with the four-time All-Star. With Lindor one season removed from hitting free agency, it looked apparent Cleveland would trade him away. Carrasco was less obviously going to be moved this winter, but it wasn’t a huge surprise the Indians parted with him, either. Carrasco’s two-year, $27MM deal (with a 2023 option) marked the biggest guaranteed contract on Cleveland’s books. Lindor’s projected arbitration range ($17.5MM — $21.5MM) would’ve easily been the Indians’ largest 2021 expense.

Each of Lindor and Carrasco remains a bargain at those rates relative to their on-field production. But Cleveland’s ownership has signaled a desire to cut payroll this winter; it wasn’t hard to foresee that coming via jettisoning the team’s highest-paid players. Cleveland’s estimated $40MM payroll, per Roster Resource, is now less than half the team’s 2020 season-opening outlay (prior to prorating).

While finances were an obvious element of the trade, it wasn’t a mere salary dump. The Indians brought in four young players, two of whom are immediate big leaguers. Amed Rosario is a former elite prospect who has been up and down over his first three-plus MLB seasons. Andrés Giménez was a highly-regarded farmhand himself and had a decent if unspectacular rookie year. The pair of prospects, right-hander Josh Wolf and Isaiah Greene, are recent high school draftees. They rank 25th and 28th, respectively, in the Indians’ farm system at FanGraphs.

Turning things over to the readership, how did each team fare in this week’s blockbuster?

(poll links for app users)

Trade Candidate: Jon Gray

By Anthony Franco | January 10, 2021 at 12:30pm CDT

Much has been written about the Rockies potentially trading stars Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story. There has been decidedly less chatter about starter Jon Gray. On the surface, though, the right-hander looks to be one of the more sensible trade candidates around the league.

That’s mostly a function of his contractual status. Gray has five years and sixty-two days of MLB service, meaning he’ll hit free agency at the end of next season. Meanwhile, contending in the NL West will be an uphill battle for the Rockies. The Dodgers are a perennial juggernaut, while the already-contending Padres made a trio of impact additions last month. The Giants also had a decent 2020 season; the Diamondbacks did not, but Arizona has largely the same roster that won 85 games and finished second in the division the year before. As Dan Szymborksi of FanGraphs examined this week, the Rockies look more likely to finish near the bottom of the division than the top.

Colorado projects as a longshot for the postseason, particularly if MLB returns to a five-team-per-league playoff structure in 2021. There’s a case to be made the Rockies should move short-term players for future value. The organization needn’t embark on a full rebuild, but a single year of production from Gray (or Story, for that matter) would probably be worth more to another team than it would to Colorado.

Admittedly, Gray is coming off a dismal season. He pitched just eight games with terrible results before being shut down with inflammation in his throwing shoulder. Gray’s velocity, strikeout and ground ball rates all dropped precipitously from past seasons. He ultimately posted an ERA just under 7.

Yet the former third overall pick looked like a capable mid-rotation starter entering 2020. Over the three prior seasons, Gray pitched to a 4.31 ERA (a deceptively solid mark in the hitters’ haven of Coors Field) across 432.2 innings. In that time, his strikeout (24.2%), walk (7.5%) and ground ball (48.8%) rates were each better than league average. As is, Gray was a productive starting pitcher. There remained some hope the former top prospect could yet emerge as a top-of-the-rotation arm. His fastball was in the mid 90’s and he flashed a pair of swing-and-miss breaking pitches.

After his disastrous 2020, Gray would be a reclamation project. But it’s easy to imagine plenty of contenders having interest in acquiring him. Eight poor starts don’t negate what Gray had achieved in the seasons before. His ending last season on the injured list is a red flag, but it’s notable the Rockies seemingly believe he can return to form this year. Otherwise, it wouldn’t have made sense for the Colorado front office to tender him an arbitration contract, projected in the not-insignificant $6MM range, as they did in November.

There has been no indication the Rockies are actually exploring trades involving Gray this offseason. On paper, though, Colorado looks a reasonable bet to subtract short-term pieces from the major league roster. Gray’s pre-2020 track record and past flashes of high-end raw stuff could entice some teams closer to contention to call the Rockies, particularly in a winter without many obvious rotation upgrades available in free agency.

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