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2021 CBA

Latest On The Universal DH

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After the designated hitter was used in both leagues in 2020, it remains to be seen if the National League will again have a DH next season or if NL pitchers will get one more crack at the plate.  Commissioner Rob Manfred recently said that all rule changes made for the 2020 season wouldn’t carry through to 2021, and such ideas like a universal DH would have to be settled with input from both the league and the players’ union.

There has been some level of discussion on this front, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan writes, with Major League Baseball offering the players implementation of the DH in both the National and American Leagues in exchange for the MLBPA signing off on an expanded playoff structure in 2021.

As Passan puts it, “understandably, the players don’t find that to be a particularly equitable trade.”  Bringing the DH to both leagues would open up more employment opportunities and contract money for position players, as NL teams would need to address their lineup depth and veteran players with less defensive mobility would suddenly have more options.  That said, the money available in an expanded DH market pales in comparison to the potential tens of millions in extra revenue the league would generate in TV revenue from extra playoff games.  The format for this expanded postseason isn’t known; Manfred has floated the idea of a 14-team postseason in the past, rather than the 16-team format used in 2020.

It has long been assumed that the universal DH would eventually be implemented, perhaps as soon as the 2022 season since the current collective bargaining agreement between MLB and the Players Association is up after the 2021 campaign.  However, with those CBA talks looming, negotiating even a one-year issue like a DH for the 2021 season inevitably leads into the tangled web of bigger-picture talks, like an expanded postseason.

This being said, the league’s offer may have been something of an “aim high” initial attempt just to see if the players would bite.  Some executives tell Passan that they think the NL will have the designated hitter next season, with the MLBPA agreeing to a concession that isn’t more playoff teams.

Quick Hits: Winter Meetings, Revenue Sharing, CBA Talks

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The COVID-19 pandemic continues to impact almost every facet of normal Major League Baseball business, both in the immediate future and looking ahead to what may be a tumultuous 2021 season.  The latest alterations include two expected changes to a pair of major offseason events, as both the Winter Meetings and the annual owners’ meetings have both been changed into virtual events rather than in-person gatherings.

The Winter Meetings have long been the focal point of the offseason calendar, often collecting just about every major power broker in baseball (owners, general managers, top free agents, player agents, media, etc.) under one roof for a four-day span.  While the rise of electronic communication over the last couple of decades has made it easier for teams to swing trades and signings at any point in the offseason, the Winter Meetings is still a major hub for winter business, whether it be completing transactions or laying groundwork during those four days that results in completed deals a few days or weeks later.

This year’s Winter Meetings were set for December 7-10 in Dallas.  The Rule 5 Draft has traditionally fallen on the final day of the Meetings, and while MLB’s press release made no specific reference to this event, it can be assumed that the Rule 5 Draft will be conducted in the same virtual manner as last summer’s amateur draft.

The owners’ meetings, which were set to be held November 17-19 in Arlington, aren’t as well-known to the casual fan, though naturally there is plenty of import whenever the sport’s owners gather in person.  Ironically, the owners and league officials have more to discuss this year than in any other offseason in recent memory, though the many discussions about how MLB will proceed under the threat of the coronavirus will undoubtedly continue throughout the coming months.

For one, revenue sharing between teams is likely to be eliminated again in 2021, according to Evan Drellich of The Athletic.  Some form of revenue sharing plan between larger-market and smaller-market teams has been in place for the better part of 25 years before the shortened 2020 season halted the regular plan this year.  As one club executive noted to Drellich, this was a greater detriment to smaller-market teams than the pandemic: “The big markets have lost anywhere between $150 to 200 [million], middle markets about $100 [million], and the small markets really, haven’t lost anything.  They got crushed because they got no revenue sharing.”

Labor talks with the MLB Players Association also loom this winter, as the current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires in December 2021.  Drellich notes that there is a chance the league could explore an extension on the current CBA, delaying talks about a new deal for at least a year until baseball’s business looks at least somewhat more normal.  Working out a CBA extension would obviously be a huge undertaking unto itself, however, as the players’ union has long been eager to rework the terms of what it felt was an unfavorable contract in the last set of negotiations.

That said, Drellich writes that the players could have extra leverage in any CBA extension talks, if the league truly is eager to forestall any bigger-picture labor negotiations.  Any number of short-term concessions could be floated by the MLBPA as conditions for extending the CBA, though given the wide range of issues the players have with the current deal, an attempt to make wholesale changes might as well amount to unofficial CBA renegotiation already.

Bryce Harper Stumps For Spencer Howard To Make Rotation

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Philadelphia Phillies top third base prospect Alec Bohm understands the dynamics of service time manipulation, and he understands the business sense behind holding him back in the minors to start the year, per Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer. “That’s a smart business move,” Bohm said.

Bryce Harper isn’t quite as accommodating, speaking out recently about the possibility of Spencer Howard – another top Philly prospect –  not making the Opening Day roster, per MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki. With intrasquad games such a heavy component of the ramp-up to Opening Day this season, Harper has seen Howard’s stuff up close and personal – and he’s impressed.

The Phillies rotation is set with Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Jake Arrieta slotted into the top spots with some competition for the final two roles. Still, there are plenty of capable veteran arms on hand, giving the Phils some plausible deniability when they decide that Howard needs more seasoning. Vince Velasquez, Zach Eflin, and Nick Pivetta all spent time in Philly’s rotation last season, and some combination of the three figure to get the early turns on the bump.

Howard, 24 in ten days, has a higher ceiling than those three, but he’s only pitched as high as Double-A – he made just 6 starts in Reading last year after starting the year in High-A. Given traditional development paths, it would be surprising for Howard to make the rotation from the jump – but that’s not to say he’s not capable.

As for Bohm, the 23-year-old is the long-term answer at third base for the Phillies. Like Howard, he made it as high as Double-A last season, hitting .269/.344/.500 across 270 plate appearances. His case for making the big league roster out of camp gained some traction over the winter, but all indications were – under normal circumstances – for Bohm to continue to develop in Triple-A at the start of 2020.

As in the rotation, the Phillies could certainly make room for Bohm if they so desired, but there’s more than enough veteran talent on-hand to make due. Jean Segura and Scott Kingery can split time between second and third, and veterans Josh Harrison and Neil Walker are also in camp as non-roster invitees. Jay Bruce slots in as the regular designated hitter – another veteran totally capable of handling a starting role, even if he might be better suited to the bench. In a vacuum, there’s room for Bohm, but it’s also not against baseball wisdom to give the vets a couple of weeks or more to prove they’re still capable of handling starter’s minutes.

With the shortened schedule, teams need only keep their top prospects off the major league roster for the first 6 games to secure an additional year of team control down the road. The issue, of course, has been hotly debated for years now, culminating in a grievance filed by Kris Bryant against the league. His grievance was unsuccessful. The issue persists year after year with players like Harper taking up the mantle to speak out for the rights of younger players. Service time manipulation of this sort will continue to be a hot button issue until it’s addressed – in some form or fashion – at the time of the next CBA negotiation in 2021.

Exploring NBA’s Model-Based Load Management System For Position Players

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Studies around the game are investing significant resources into the study of players’ health, and though we know all change is bad and everyone hates it, baseball could soon turn to the model-based resting patterns that has swept through the NBA in recent seasons, per The Athletic’s Eno Sarris.

Technological advancement has already clung to the pitching side of the game, where Driveline and pitching labs have entered the common vernacular. Studies continue to work towards a better understanding of pitcher health, including looking at spin rate changes as an indicator of future injury. The naked eye can only gauge so much in terms of a player’s fatigue level, and the goal here is to put as much precision into the process as is scientifically possible.

Pitchers’ rest has obviously been a key part of the modern game, but it’s the position player side that might lean towards an NBA-style model-based resting program. It’s not uncommon, of course, for players to want to play everyday or even insist that their play improves the more often they’re in the game. Sarris provides Marcus Semien as an example – Semien feels days off knocks him out of rhythm.

There’s certainly validity to Semien’s line of thinking, but the counter would be that a day or two of feeling off in the box is worth it in the grand scheme of a 6-month long season. Tracking acute stress versus chronic stress is one of the key issues in managing player fatigue, and there’s more than one philosophy on how to manage it. It’s difficult to quantify the impact of fatigue on player performance, but there’s little doubt it plays a significant role in the game. In fact, it very well might be the area of greatest impact of which we know the least.

Of course, getting enough information to make a model-based resting program would mean cooperation from the players. There’s a fair amount of data acquisition possible through wearable technology, but if players aren’t invested in these programs, it will be difficult to progress. Players have plenty of reason to invest themselves in this brand of technological advancement, but they also have cause to be wary. If data collected is owned by the teams, players are put in a vulnerable position – as said data could be used against them in contract negotiations.

As pitcher velocity rises and injuries continue to threaten their livelihood, expect this conversation to gain traction, and don’t be surprised if the data ownership conversation spills over into the next round of CBA negotiations. In an increasingly flattened competitive landscape, teams already view health as a new frontier to gain a competitive advantage. To delve further, Sarris’ full article is well worth a read, as he explores this issue in full, citing a number of studies currently working to better understand player load management.

MLB, Players Association Discuss Prospect Of Mandated Opioid Testing

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Major League Baseball and the Players Association have no shortage of topics to talk about these days, but a new issue has forced its way onto the agenda: opioid testing. The autopsy results after the tragic passing of Tyler Skaggs turned this national conversation into a touch point for MLB, and the two sides are discussing the possibilities of including random screenings for opioids into the official drug testing program, per Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times.

Opioids do appear on the banned-substance list – a fine first step – but major league players aren’t subject to testing without reasonable cause. Tony Clark, the executive director of the Players Association, released a statement last Friday in which he said: “For several reasons, including the tragic loss of a member of our fraternity and other developments happening in the country as a whole, it is appropriate and important to reexamine all of our drug protocols relating to education, treatment and prevention.”

As drug testing has been an area of relative common ground in recent years, an accord here could inject a note of harmony to a negotiation largely fraught with skepticism.  Even so, don’t expect anything contractual in the near-term. The opioid crisis is but one issue among many being discussed in the lead up to CBA negotiations in 2021. MLB and the Players Association are meeting about once a month for these “early negotiations,” per The Athletic’s Evan Drellich. While these sessions could not be more foundational to the overall discussions, the goal of diplomacy at this stage is more to about gauging temperature than putting pen to paper.

Both sides cite player welfare as a primary objective of these preliminary talks, though at present, there’s little reason to suspect pervasive use of opioids throughout the game. What information they do have comes from mandated testing for minor leaguers, who lack union protection and therefore are subject to testing and discipline by the commissioner’s office. More than 78,000 tests have been conducted for minor league players, resulting in just 12 suspensions, per ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan.

Still, fentanyl is the leading cause of overdose deaths in the U.S., and the Skaggs autopsy provided an opportunity to be proactive. The rate and severity of injury puts players at risk for exposure through short-term surgical use, and most players certainly have the financial means to foster ongoing abuse should it become an issue. There is likely to be stronger solution in the new CBA, as leaving the safety of players to the discretion of team doctors is hardly the most comprehensive approach, not to mention the burden of responsibilities it places on the doctors themselves.

“Fierce Union Advocate” Rick Shapiro Parts Ways With MLB Players Association

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The MLB Players Association has ended their relationship with long-time executive Rick Shapiro, per ESPN’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). Shapiro had seen his role and influence with the Players Union increasingly diminished in recent months.  

Parting ways with one of their lawyers feels like a significant move, especially as we get closer to defining the real meat of the 2021 labor negotiations. Of Shapiro’s particular influence, Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter) writes:

“Shapiro was a fierce union advocate, but also someone MLB viewed as knowing the history of CBA negotiations and capable of getting to a deal, so his exit is another sign of war drums by the union with the end of the CBA coming following 2021. Haven spoken to multiple agents tonight who feel this is a big loss for union, in part because Shapiro also was a key figure in the arbitration process and this loss of his institutional knowledge and advocacy will not be easily replaced. Since the death of Mike Weiner and naming of Tony Clark to lead the union, Rick’s influence had internally waned. Still agents were shocked that the end came this morning rather than waiting until the next CBA was completed. The union did not want to comment on this matter.”

Given the shifting tenor of contract negotiators in general between players and owners, departing a well-regarded litigator is a notable move for the union. Without comment or knowledge of corresponding moves, however, it’s presumptuous to assume this move speaks to a willingness (or even eagerness) on the players’ part to “lean in” to the coming conflict (as it seems on the surface).

That said, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that there are many in the industry who feel this is a sign of the growing momentum of a potential strike. Regardless, Shapiro’s exit can be added to the catalog of happenings to keep near-at-hand as we sift through narratives in advance of the 2021 collecting bargaining negotiation.

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