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2021-22 Offseason Outlook

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Angels

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It was another disappointing season for the Angels, who missed the playoffs for the seventh consecutive year. Shohei Ohtani took an MVP-caliber step forward, while Jared Walsh became the newest member of the team’s enviable position player core. Yet again, the Angels are tasked with trying to build a passable roster to complement a few of the sport’s brightest stars. The issue, as is seemingly the case every winter: improving the pitching staff.

Guaranteed Contracts

Total 2022 commitments: $111.24MM

Projected Salaries for Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Gosselin, Guerra

Free Agents

The first few days of the offseason has made the Angels’ top priority apparent. They’re looking to upgrade the starting rotation, and they’re setting their sights high. Los Angeles general manager Perry Minasian has gone on record a few times about his desire to land external pitching help, telling reporters at this week’s GM Meetings the goal is “to significantly improve our rotation.”

All things considered, this is a pretty good offseason to be on the hunt for high-end pitching. The free agent class offers a handful of hurlers who have top-of-the-rotation numbers in their recent past, and the Angels have already been linked to a few members of that group. They’ve expressed some early interest in a couple of aces coming off injury-wrecked seasons in Justin Verlander and Noah Syndergaard. The Angels haven’t been publicly linked to Carlos Rodón, but the former White Sox southpaw was one of the best pitchers in the league on an inning for inning basis before a late-season IL stint due to shoulder discomfort threw his market into flux.

All three of those players have the impact potential to which Minasian alluded, but health and/or age questions figure to limit the length of any commitment. That might be particularly appealing for the Angels, a team that — despite showing an overall willingness to spend on players — has concentrated their recent long-term investments on position players. Whether that’s happenstance, the preference of owner Arte Moreno or risk aversion on the part of erstwhile GM Billy Eppler isn’t clear. Minasian, a first-time GM hired last November, doesn’t yet have a large body of work to offer much insight into his team-building approach. He was hired out of a Braves’ front office that has generally preferred to offer high annual salaries over shorter terms, though. It remains to be seen if he’ll take a similar approach as his former employer in Anaheim.

If the Angels are willing to make a longer-term investment in a starting pitcher, there are plenty of options beyond Verlander, Syndergaard and Rodón. Robbie Ray, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman are all top-of-the-rotation caliber arms at their best, and all three might top $100MM over a five-plus year term. Eduardo Rodríguez is a tier below those three but could land a significant four or five year deal of his own. And there’s almost nothing a team could do to more significantly upgrade their starting staff in 2022 than sign Max Scherzer, even if that’d probably cost them an all-time record average annual investment.

Free agency offers plenty of potential high-impact options, and the Angels will surely also work the trade market. The Reds might make Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray available; the Marlins are considering whether to trade away someone like Sandy Alcantara or Pablo López; the division-rival A’s are soon to slash payroll, so Frankie Montas, Chris Bassitt and/or Sean Manaea could wind up on the move. Between the healthy supply of starters available in either free agency or trade and the Angels’ obvious desire to upgrade, it’d register as a major surprise if they didn’t come away with at least one marquee pickup this winter.

One high-end starter might be all the Angels need, since they actually have one of their better collection of internal options in recent memory. They’ll obviously want to be careful with Shohei Ohtani’s workload, but he’s a top-of-the-rotation type starter on an inning for inning basis. Patrick Sandoval broke out in 2021, working to a 3.62 ERA over 87 innings with one of the game’s highest swinging strike rates. His year ended early because of a back injury, but Sandoval has a 2022 rotation spot secured if healthy. That’s also true of lefty José Suárez, a ground-ball specialist who looks like a solid back-end type.

Add an impact external pickup to the mix, and four spots in Joe Maddon’s season-opening rotation are already accounted for. Top prospect Reid Detmers got his feet wet at the big league level this past season, and Jaime Barría and Griffin Canning could still compete for spots as well. Every team needs more than five or six starters to navigate a full season, and that’s especially true for an Angels club that needs to be careful in handling Ohtani. They’ve already been linked to mid-tier free agent starters like Steven Matz and Alex Wood, and those players would certainly add some stability. It makes sense to cast a wide net in the early stages of the offseason, but this isn’t a team that needs to build an entire rotation from scratch.

Of course, making multiple rotation additions could be a way to indirectly bolster one of the weaker areas of the roster — the bullpen. Angels’ relievers ranked 24th this past season in ERA (4.57), also finishing in the bottom half of the league in SIERA (4.10) and strikeout/walk rate differential (13.2 percentage points). That’s in spite of an excellent season from closer Raisel Iglesias, whom they could lose to free agency. The Angels made Iglesias a one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer, but he seems likelier to decline that in search of a multi-year deal as the top reliever in this year’s class.

The Angels could certainly pursue an Iglesias reunion even if he rejects the QO, but it remains to be seen whether they’d want to pay a top-of-the-market price to address the relief corps. They should have the payroll flexibility to be in that mix. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource projects their current 2022 commitments around $130MM (non-tendering Phil Gosselin and Junior Guerra could knock that mark down a few million). That’s more than $50MM shy of the $182MM figure they carried into 2021 (per Cot’s Baseball Contracts), a franchise-record outlay. If Moreno’s willing to repeat this year’s level of spending, then the potential is there for a couple big free agent splashes.

Adding an impact free agent starter would probably account for at least half that available payroll space, though, and re-signing Iglesias on top of that might inhibit their ability to address the position player group. If Iglesias departs, the Angels would stand to recoup a compensatory draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B (around 70-75 overall) and could turn their attention to making one or two lower-cost bullpen pickups.

Other multi-year deal candidates who’d probably cost less than Iglesias include Kendall Graveman, Kenley Jansen, Corey Knebel, Héctor Neris, Mark Melancon and Ryan Tepera from the right side, with Aaron Loup, Andrew Chafin and Brooks Raley among the left-handed options. It seems likely they’ll add multiple arms to the ’pen in some capacity, with Mike Mayers, Andrew Wantz, Austin Warren and José Quijada the only in-house options coming off seasons with 20-plus frames of sub-4.00 SIERA ball.

Much of the position player group is already set. Ohtani will be a middle-of-the-order presence at DH, leaving first base to Jared Walsh. They’ll have to hope for better health from Anthony Rendon at third base, and that’s obviously true of Mike Trout as well. Max Stassi had a breakout season behind the plate and probably earned the lion’s share of playing time at catcher, although the front office could look around for a low-cost complement, preferably one who hits left-handed. The non-tender market could shake out an affordable player who comes with multiple remaining seasons of team control, which could be particularly appealing since Stassi is slated to hit free agency after next season.

The most glaring need is in the middle infield. The Angels are committed to David Fletcher at one spot, although that’s more of a question mark than it’d have seemed a few months ago. By measure of wRC+, Fletcher was the majors’ second-worst qualified hitter after the All-Star Break. That dreadful few months left him barely above replacement level for the season, but he’d combined average or better offense with excellent defense from 2019-20. His track record will earn him another chance, and Minasian said after the season the club was open to him playing either of second base or shortstop in 2022.

The Angels can’t do much but hope Fletcher rebounds at one of those positions, but they’ll probably have to upgrade the other middle spot. Luis Rengifo and Jack Mayfield, the top in-house candidates, are better suited in utility roles. This winter offers  an incredible collection of free agent middle infielders, although a run at any of Marcus Semien, Trevor Story or Javier Báez (to say nothing of top-of-the-market superstars Carlos Correa and Corey Seager) would add another huge multi-year investment to the books.

That shouldn’t be out of the question given the Angels’ previous levels of spending. They’re finally off the hook on the Albert Pujols contract, and the Justin Upton deal ends after next season. Trout, Rendon and Fletcher are already accounting for more than $81MM in 2023 and beyond, though, and a splash at the top of the free agent pitching market this winter would probably push their long-term commitments north of $100MM. Would they want to add another huge deal on top of that? That remains to be seen, particularly since they’ll probably earmark some funds for a hopeful Ohtani extension (more on that in a minute).

That could mean another year with a stopgap middle infield pickup. Last year’s José Iglesias addition didn’t pan out, but they could take a similar tack with Freddy Galvis at shortstop or Jonathan Villar, César Hernández or Josh Harrison at second base (with Fletcher sliding over to short). Perhaps the Cardinals and D-Backs would be willing to kick in some money to facilitate a trade involving Paul DeJong or Nick Ahmed, respectively. Neither would be the most exciting addition for Angels’ fans, but they’d at least meaningfully upgrade a defense that was among the league’s worst in 2021, as MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk explored in August.

It’d be a bit surprising if the Angels made a big addition in the outfield, since they have a promising group internally. Trout hasn’t played an inning outside center field since 2013, but there’s a case to be made for transitioning him into a corner spot moving forward. Public defensive metrics have pegged the three-time MVP as average or worse in center over the past couple seasons, and he’s now 30 years old coming off a major calf injury. Trout hasn’t rated disastrously in center field, and the Angels may not want to risk disrupting the future Hall of Famer for the sake of marginally improving the team’s defense. But rookie Brandon Marsh is probably a better defensive player than Trout is at this stage of their respective careers.

Regardless of the specific alignment, Trout and Marsh are probably going to play regularly in some capacity. That’s also true of former top prospect Jo Adell, who’s better suited in a corner. Upton fits best as a role player, although he still offers some power, particularly against left-handed pitching. That doesn’t leave a ton of room for outside help, but it’s not out of the question the Angels move one of Marsh or Adell for pitching. (Speculatively speaking, the Marlins are known to be targeting controllable outfielders and might have interest in either player as part of a deal for one of their starters). If a Marsh or Adell trade comes to fruition, then perhaps the Angels poke around the free agent outfield market.

Hanging over all of the Angels’ potential offseason upgrades is the hope for a long-term deal with Ohtani. The 27-year-old had been a highly valuable, extremely entertaining player in years past, but he’d never put everything together quite like he did in 2021. An AL MVP finalist, Ohtani is coming off a season unlike any we’ve seen in nearly a century. In addition to top-of-the-rotation numbers as a pitcher, he was the game’s fifth-best qualified hitter by wRC+. His 46 homers ranked third leaguewide, while his .592 slugging percentage checked in fourth.

Ohtani’s an unprecedented player, at least in recent history, so there’s of course no contractual precedent for a player like this. He’s already controllable for the next two seasons, guaranteed $5.5MM next year and scheduled for a similarly-unusual trip through arbitration next winter. The Angels would no doubt love to keep him beyond 2023, and Ohtani has expressed some openness to that possibility. As of late September, the two-way star told reporters that no extension talks were ongoing. Neither Minasian nor Ohtani’s representatives at CAA Sports were willing to divulge anything during this week’s GM Meetings about whether negotiations had taken place since (link via Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com).

Whether or not they’ve begun any sort of negotiations, it stands to reason Moreno and Minasian will map out how far the organization is willing to go to keep Ohtani in the fold. Even if nothing gets done this winter, the possibility of future discussions could limit how much payroll the Angels are willing to commit to other areas of the roster for 2023 and beyond.

As is typically the case, it’s shaping up to be an interesting winter in Orange County. The Angels should be among the top suitors for any number of top-of-the-rotation options, and they’re strong candidates to come away with at least one marquee starting pitcher. Add some bullpen and middle infield pursuits and a potential one-of-a-kind extension negotiation, and Minasian should be in for a busy first full offseason leading baseball operations.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

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The Cubs traded away their core rather than extend them, and now the club is light on financial commitments as well as good MLB players.  Is this winter the time to strike?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Jason Heyward, RF: $44MM through 2023
  • Kyle Hendricks, SP: $29.5MM through 2023.  Includes $16MM club option for 2024
  • Wade Miley, SP: $10MM through 2022
  • David Bote, 2B/3B: $13MM through 2024.  Includes $7MM club option for 2025 and $7.6MM club option for ’26

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Wade Miley, SP: exercised $10MM club option after claiming off waivers from Reds

Free Agents

When the dust had settled after the July deadline, the Cubs had completed eight trades.  Of the nine players sent packing, seven are currently free agents, Trevor Williams might be non-tendered by the Mets, and the White Sox picked up Craig Kimbrel’s option.  Seeing Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Javier Baez in different uniforms marked the end of an era, and now the Cubs have a bunch of extra prospects and a clean financial slate.  They’ve also got a new second-in command in the front office behind Jed Hoyer in Carter Hawkins, hired from Cleveland.  The Cubs went on to hire Ehsan Bokhari from the Astros as assistant GM and Greg Brown from the Rays as the new hitting coach.  Furthermore, longtime executive Jason McLeod is leaving, and Randy Bush is moving into an advisory role.

Hoyer said in late September, “We plan to be really active in free agency.”  Trying to decode GM-speak is always difficult, but Hoyer elaborated a few weeks later, saying, “We have money to spend this winter. But it’s really important that we do that in an intelligent way.”  Furthermore, “We need to be active in a way that we feel like we’re getting the right value for the dollars we’re spending, and we’re also making sure that we’re not hindering ourselves going forward with expenditures for right now.”  Hoyer went on to caution against “winning the offseason.”

MLBTR projected its top 12 free agents to each receive contracts of at least five years, with the exception of record-setting three-year deal for Max Scherzer.  When I try to translate spending money “intelligently” and “not hindering ourselves going forward,” I take it to mean that the Cubs won’t sign any of those top dozen or so free agents.  Hoyer has stated that the Cubs “have a lot of holes to fill on this roster,” which is a euphemism for a lack of present MLB talent.  The Cubs will shop at the top end of the free agent market again, but I don’t think it will be this winter.

So what will the Cubs do?  Hoyer made it clear that adding pitchers, particularly those with strikeout ability, is the team’s top priority.  So why, then, did the club commit $10MM to 35-year-old lefty Wade Miley, who the payroll-cutting Reds cast off after a fine season?  Miley possesses a 90 mile per hour fastball and the sixth-worst strikeout rate in baseball this year among those with at least 160 innings.  The answer is that Miley is still a solid pitcher, the only cost was his salary, and it’s a one-year commitment.  For a team with no rotation locks beyond fellow soft-tosser Kyle Hendricks, the Cubs took the opportunity that fell into their lap.  Miley’s best attribute is his ability to generate weak contact, as he ranked fourth in baseball in average exit velocity.

The Cubs may yet add two or three starting pitchers to the rotation.  As far as potential free agent targets, let’s cross off those seeking five-plus years or an immediate shot at a championship.  We’re left with Carlos Rodon, Eduardo Rodriguez, Alex Wood, Yusei Kikuchi, and Jon Gray atop the strikeout leaderboard.  We believe Rodriguez may require a four-year deal, plus Boston’s qualifying offer means the Cubs would sacrifice their second-round draft pick.  Noah Syndergaard comes with that same draft pick problem, if he even reaches the open market.  Rolling the dice on Rodon makes some level of sense, in that the Cubs wouldn’t be hampered by a deal anywhere from one to three years, and he offers possible ace-like pitching without a $100MM commitment if the club rolls the dice on his health.  Rodon is the moon shot option, while Wood, Kikuchi, Gray, and James Paxton are safer choices.  Free agency also offers pitchers with decent velocity if not the strikeout rate, like Steven Matz, Garrett Richards, and Anthony DeSclafani.

The trade market is also an option for the Cubs, who could offer one year of Willson Contreras, deal away some of their prospect capital, or just take on an unwanted contract.  Strikeout pitchers who could be available in trade include Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, Tyler Mahle, Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Frankie Montas, Zac Gallen, Sean Manaea, Chris Paddack, Chris Bassitt, Caleb Smith, and Luis Castillo.  The Rays’ Tyler Glasnow makes sense for the Cubs, even though he won’t be recovered from Tommy John surgery until the 2023 season.  Indeed, such a trade was considered back in July.   The Tigers’ Matthew Boyd, who underwent flexor tendon surgery in September, may be non-tendered by the Tigers and also makes sense for the Cubs.  Back when the Cubs had some money to burn, they signed Drew Smyly to a two-year, $10MM deal off Tommy John surgery with an eye entirely on the second season.

Three of the best trade targets are on the Reds, who may be reluctant to trade a starter to the division-rival Cubs in addition to Miley.  The idea of the Cubs reacquiring Darvish one year after his trade somewhat kicked off their rebuild is too amusing not to mention.  After the Cubs shipped Darvish and backup catcher Victor Caratini to San Diego for four low-minors prospects and Zach Davies, Darvish went on to post a 2.44 ERA through the season’s first half.  He got blasted (mostly by home runs) in the second half to the tune of a 6.65 ERA.  Darvish is owed $37MM over the next two years, and the Cubs suddenly have the payroll flexibility the Padres desire.  Just saying, it’d be fun to see.

The bullpen is another clear need for the Cubs, who are left with guys like Codi Heuer and Rowan Wick atop their depth chart.  A few cheap free agent investments make sense here.

The Cubs’ infield is mostly set, with Willson Contreras at catcher, Frank Schwindel at first, Nick Madrigal at second, Nico Hoerner at short, and Patrick Wisdom at third.  While Schwindel (age 30) and Wisdom (29) aren’t likely long-term solutions, they’ve at least earned at-bats in 2022.  The Cubs also have to see if a Madrigal-Hoerner double-play combination has staying power.

With one year of control remaining on Contreras, the Cubs enter into the familiar “extend or trade” territory that led to their July sell-off.  The free agent market is weak at the position, and teams like the Yankees, Guardians, Rangers, Marlins, and Giants might be seeking catching help.

Ian Happ avoided a possible non-tender by posting a 147 wRC+ over the season’s final two months.  He figures to hold down left field, while Rafael Ortega can keep center field warm until the Cubs deem top prospect Brennen Davis ready.  In right, there’s Jason Heyward and the $44MM owed to him over the next two years.  After a brutal 68 wRC+ in 2021, the Cubs probably can’t justify a roster spot for Heyward through all of ’22 unless he manages at least league average hitting.  While the Cubs could explore a potential bad contract swap, they’re in more of a position to take on dead money as a means of accumulating yet more prospects.

One outfield addition that could make sense for the Cubs is right fielder Seiya Suzuki.  It’s nearly impossible to project what level of contract Suzuki will require if he’s posted by the Hiroshima Carp, but he’s only 27 years old and is one of the best players in Japan.  Signing him would be akin to the club’s $30MM deal for Jorge Soler, which occurred about eight months into Jed Hoyer’s tenure with the team.

We’re about to embark on a free agency experience unlike anything we’ve seen in recent years, with a probable lockout followed by a compressed signing period.  If some players fall through the cracks in that scenario, the Cubs are well-positioned to make opportunistic strikes with one-year offers.  With Heyward, Hendricks, Miley, David Bote, Contreras, and Happ, the Cubs have an estimated $63.7MM committed for six players.  As a team capable of sustaining a payroll in excess of $200MM, the Cubs are a sleeping giant right now.  In reference to the Giants, Hoyer said, “They certainly didn’t win the offseason last year. They won the season.”  While I can say with certainty the Cubs won’t win 107 games in 2022, it’s clear that the team would prefer to avoid the top end of free agency this winter, become a surprise contender, and then look to flex its financial muscle.

Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves

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In their fourth consecutive season at the top of the National League East, the Braves finally put away their postseason demons to win the World Series. If it weren’t for the ring, however, this would be the most uncertain offseason the Braves have faced in some time. This year’s team had the lowest winning percentage of any of their four East title squads, and it’s hard not to suggest that these Braves benefited from a weak division in 2021. They capitalized, they partied, and they paraded, but now it’s time to pack up the balloons and streamers and look ahead to some difficult offseason decisions.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Charlie Morton, SP: $20MM in 2022 (includes $20MM club option for 2023 with no buyout)
  • Marcell Ozuna OF: $53MM through 2024 (includes $1MM buyout on $16MM club option for 2025)
  • Will Smith, RP: $14MM in 2022 (includes $1MM buyout on $13MM club option for 2023)
  • Ronald Acuna Jr., OF: $93MM through 2026 (includes $10MM buyout on $17MM club option for 2027, team also holds a $17MM option for 2028)
  • Travis d’Arnaud, C: $16MM through 2023 (includes $8MM club option for 2024 with no buyout)
  • Ozzie Albies, 2B: $26MM through 2025 (includes $4MM buyout on $7MM club option in 2026, team also holds $7MM club option for 2027)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Joc Pederson, OF: $10MM mutual option for 2022 (player declined in favor of a $2.5MM buyout)
  • Adam Duvall, OF: $7MM mutual option for 2022 (player declined in favor of a $3MM buyout, remains arbitration-eligible)
  • Josh Tomlin, RP: $1.25MM team option for 2022 (declined for a $250K buyout)

Free Agents

The Braves are the champions of the 2021 Major League Baseball season. Bully for you, Atlanta.  Given that fact, their offseason outlook is pretty good. Frankly, whatever happens over the next six months won’t really matter to the Braves. They’re the champs, and that’s the ultimate winter gavel drop.

The one thing that could slow the effervescent feel-goodery of their championship run is the pending contract negotiation with longtime face-of-the-franchise Freddie Freeman. If by some odd twist of fate Freeman does not sign a long-term deal to stay with the Braves, that’s when the lights turn on, the music stops, and everyone goes home.

The 2022 season is already shaping up to be a weird one: the Giants will be without Buster Posey, the Nationals will probably be without Ryan Zimmerman, Bryzzo no longer exists except in the memory of Cubs’ fans, a fanbase other than Houston is likely going to embrace Carlos Correa, and the agreement between the owners and Players’ Union that defines the conditions of the 2022 season…well…there is no agreement. Point being, there’s only so much change a sport can take in a single winter, so let’s assume for the sake of sanity that Freeman will remain with the only organization he has ever known. If north ends up being south and pigs fly, we can cross that bridge then.

After all, from a baseball perspective, there’s little reason not to bring back Freeman. He’s one year removed from an MVP season and coming off a .300/.393/.503 campaign, in which he led the NL with 120 runs. He’s been one of the most consistent players in baseball, both from a character and production standpoint. He’s posted 4.0 rWAR or better in each of the last six seasons (except for 2020, when he put up 3.2 rWAR in 60 games). He’s been the heartbeat of the club for years, and he shows no signs of slowing down.

Yes, he plays first base, and that means he’s not a particularly versatile asset. His next contract will take him into his late thirties, and it’s going to be costly. But so long as they have Acuna and Albies locked into ridiculously team-friendly deals, and so long as their largest contract belongs to Charlie Morton on a minimal-risk, short-term contract, these Braves should have the money to overpay a little to keep “new Chipper” in his locker spot.

From a narrative perspective, the engines stalled during the postseason while Joe Buck and John Smoltz repeatedly tried to breathe life into the story of Soler, Rosario, Duvall, and Pederson being brought to Atlanta at the deadline. For sure, give President of Baseball Operations Alex Anthopoulos all the credit he deserves. He absolutely raised the floor for what had been an under-performing Atlanta team, and he hit pay dirt when each of the four showed up huge in the postseason. It’s pretty remarkable, in fact, that each of those four guys was able to make a distinct imprint on this postseason.

And yet, there’s a world in which none of them return to Atlanta for 2022. Soler and Rosario were the NLCS and World Series MVPs, respectively, but they are both straight-up free agents – free to sign wherever they please. For both of those guys, they could be in for an extended stay at reception unless the Braves want to honor their contribution with a hero’s offer.

On the other hand, it’s easy to see either one of these guys returning to Atlanta. When guys become postseason starts like Rosario and Soler, they instantly become more valuable to their incumbent franchise than they are anywhere else. For the players, they certainly should have positive associations from their time in Atlanta, and their popularity meters will be less sensitive in Atlanta than with a fresh fanbase. And yet, Soler and Rosario are corner outfielders at best, and most teams may want to see what happens with the CBA before signing a potential designated hitter.

While Soler and Rosario are the decorated heroes of this outfield foursome, Pederson and Duvall have been the active pair thus far. Pederson declined his $10MM mutual option, choosing instead to take a $2.5MM buyout and head to free agency. The move makes sense for both sides, as Pederson will want to find a situation with more guaranteed playing time. Coming off a 94 wRC+ season that saw him post just 0.6 fWAR between the Cubs and Braves, the Braves weren’t likely to exercise their half of the option if the decision had made it that far.

The Duvall decision is a touch more complex. Their postseason centerfielder declined his half of a $7MM mutual option, pocketing the $3MM buyout. But he remains under team control through arbitration. Duvall has been a 109 wRC+ hitter over the past three seasons, mostly with Atlanta, and he’s coming off probably his best year, posting 2.4 fWAR between the Marlins and Braves. Besides, unlocking at least a passing ability to play centerfield makes Duvall all the more valuable. He’s a flawed player because of subpar on-base skills, but he can also carry a team when he’s hot. Still, the Braves have designated him for assignment in the past when the financials were similar, and if they learned anything this past season, it’s that outfielders can be had at the deadline for cheap. If they keep him, MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects a salary in the $9.1MM range.

Not to mention, the Braves outfield quandary goes deeper than those four. With Acuna coming back, they’re already overcrowded (even if Acuna isn’t ready by opening day). Plus, with Marcell Ozuna’s contract hanging over this team, there’s a lot more uncertainty heading into next season. As of now, there’s no telling if Ozuna will play again or if the Braves would have any recourse to getting out of his contract, should they want to.

They also have heralded prospects Cristian Pache and Drew Waters to work into the equation. Pache already has a Major League glove, and he should have a roster spot on the 2022 Braves. Even if he’s not strictly an everyday regular, if he’s on the roster, he’s likely to get a lot of the playing time.

The shape and depth of the Braves ’22 outfield is unclear, but the truth is, it’s a largely cosmetic problem. There are plenty of options available to Anthopoulos, and it’s more a question of sentimentality and narrative than it is efficacy. The bones of a solid outfield are already there, especially if they choose to bring back Duvall, and even if none of Soler, Duvall, Rosario and Pederson return, there ought to be plenty of low-cost alternatives available to bring aboard.

The rest of the offense is fairly well set. Swanson has one more year of arbitration at short, Albies is locked in long-term at second, Riley established himself at the hot corner, and d’Arnaud signed a two-year extension to return as the starting backstop. One wayward thought: given the shortstops that are available this winter, the Braves could be bold and look now for a long-term replacement for Swanson at short, but that’s probably a little too cute for Anthopoulos. Swanson is Georgia born, he has great hair, solid memes, and the former number one overall pick has been a steady if unspectacular presence on both sides of the ball. Entering his age-28 season, there may yet be a career year lurking as well.

Behind those starters, William Contreras shows promise and can serve as the backup behind the plate. If they want to give him more regular playing time in Triple-A, Chadwick Tromp was picked up from the Giants and 24-year-old Shea Langeliers isn’t far from elbowing his way into the room. If retained, Johan Camargo and Orlando Arcia can backup most spots around the diamond, though either one could be a non-tender candidate given their light outputs at the dish. Travis Demeritte was added to the 40-man roster to compete for a backup role as well. There’s a spot to fill on the bench, but it largely depends on whether or not they retain any of the “trade deadline four.”

For the rest of the roster, they’re actually in a much better place than you might assume for a team coming off its fourth consecutive division title. Because despite their longstanding success, there’s definitely an up-and-coming quality to this roster, especially on the pitching side. Morton, Ian Anderson, and Max Fried make for a stellar top of the rotation, and there’s some serious upside to untap if Mike Soroka can return healthy and either Huascar Ynoa, Kyle Wright, Kyle Muller, or Touki Toussaint can establish themselves in the bigs. Of course, we’ve been saying this of Atlanta’s rotation for years. They’ve also managed to keep it together for years.

They may look to add another Drew Smyly type, a back-end rotation piece who gave them 126 2/3 innings of 4.48 ERA/5.11 FIP baseball during the regular season. Those innings are no joke, and Atlanta will have to fill them again next year. Smyly was little better than replacement level, so they should have no trouble replacing him.

The bullpen remains mostly intact as well, with the southpaw triumvirate of Will Smith, Tyler Matzek, and A.J. Minter returning. Richard Rodriguez, Luke Jackson, and Jacob Webb make up a solid trio of righties as well. There’s certainly room for an addition here or there, but it’s more likely the Braves will tinker around the edges of the roster

All in all, it’s likely to be a relatively quiet winter for the champs outside of a potential Freeman extension. With arbitration projections, their projected payroll is right around the $140MM mark they carried in 2021. Of course, that’s without a new contract for Freeman, but winning the World Series ought to help make the extra room in the payroll to keep the player who waited the longest in Atlanta to win.

Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants

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The retirement of franchise legend Buster Posey underscores what a transformative offseason this could be for the Giants, who have lots of available payroll, several roster needs, and an infrastructure that has already produced a 107-win season.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Free Agents

The 2021-22 offseason has long been earmarked as the turning point of the Giants’ rebuilding phase.  When Farhan Zaidi was hired as the team’s president of baseball operations in November 2018, the consensus was that Zaidi would spend three years adding younger talent and trying to unload as many unwieldy veteran contracts as possible, but since so many of those veteran contracts were up this winter, the decks would be cleared for the team to clearly focus on fielding a contender.

As it happened, the rebuild ended a year early.  San Francisco didn’t even entirely bottom out in 2019 (77-85 record) or 2020 (29-31), and then shocked the baseball world by winning 107 games this past year.  Of all the great teams in the Giants’ history, the 2021 edition was the first to 107 victories, breaking the old franchise mark of 106 set way back in 1904.  After such a season, a first-round playoff exit has to count as a disappointment, especially since the Giants lost to the arch-rival Dodgers in a nail-biter of a five-game NLDS.

However, even though many members of that 2021 roster might not be returning next year, there is already a sense that San Francisco has turned the corner.  Zaidi’s front office and the Giants’ coaching staff have done an outstanding job of acquiring lower-cost talent and working with those players to either rediscover past potential or reach new heights on the field, so the potential roster departures may not loom at large for the Giants as they would for most clubs.  Now, with loads of extra payroll space to now spend on established star names or even more hidden-gem types, pretty much anything seems to be on the table for the Giants this winter.

Looking at San Francisco’s payroll picture, Roster Resource estimates the team has roughly $74.3MM on the books for 2022 and only $33MM committed beyond this season.  Considering how the Giants regularly spent well over the $180MM mark and even paid the luxury tax in each of the 2015-17 seasons, it isn’t a reach to suggest that Zaidi could add around $100MM to next year’s ledger, even if some of that money isn’t spent in the winter and instead saved for another Kris Bryant-esque trade deadline addition.

Zaidi has already stated that the pitching staff if the team’s chief focus, since Kevin Gausman, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood, and Johnny Cueto are all free agents.  “I would be surprised if we didn’t wind up doing at least one multi-year deal for a starting pitcher,” Zaidi said, while also noting that the Giants would again be looking at less expensive one-year options to help fill these many rotation spots.

The good news is that San Francisco’s one remaining surefire starter is Logan Webb, who broke out with a tremendous 2021 season.  Just about any veteran ace on the market could be a candidate to team Webb at the top of the rotation, considering how much money the Giants have available.  This could translate to a reunion with Gausman, signing the likes of a Marcus Stroman or a Robbie Ray, or even luring Max Scherzer away from the Dodgers to join the other side of the longtime rivalry.

The Giants have interest in retaining any of their own free agent hurlers, Zaidi said.  With his $130MM deal now up, Cueto would be the least expensive of the group, likely available on a one-year deal.  Wood will require a multi-year pact but his market could be somewhat tempered by his injury history, even though he pitched quite well when healthy in 2021.  Gausman will require one of the largest contracts of any free agent this winter, though there is already optimism that a new deal will be worked out, and the two sides already had some talks about a long-term contract last offseason when Gausman accepted the qualifying offer.

DeSclafani could be a QO candidate himself in the wake of his impressive 2021 season.  The righty has generally pitched well over his seven MLB seasons but with some inconsistency, such as a rough 2020 campaign that allowed San Francisco to sign him to a one-year, $6MM deal last winter that proved to be a bargain.  There is a possibility that DeSclafani could follow in Gausman’s footsteps by accepting the qualifying offer (one year, $18.4MM) and betting on himself for a better platform year in 2022 and larger free agent riches next offseason.  Taking the QO would also allow DeSclafani to lock in a big payday now and avoid any risk of a market squeeze, or the labor uncertainty looming over baseball’s offseason due to the expiring Collective Bargaining Agreement.  On the other hand, DeSclafani turns 32 in April, so he might reject the qualifying offer if he sees this winter as his best chance at a big long-term contract.

At the lower end of the free agent market, any pitcher coming off a poor season or two might as well see San Francisco as the fountain of youth, given the Giants’ success at reclamation projects in recent years.  As a result, it’s safe to assume the Giants might have their pick of just about any veterans available on inexpensive one-year deals.  Younger starting candidates like Sammy Long and Tyler Beede are also in the mix to compete with any of these veterans for a back-end rotation spot come Spring Training.

The Giants had one of the game’s best bullpens last year and the relief corps probably won’t be a huge target area, but at least a couple of new faces are inevitable as more pitchers cycle through on minor league contracts.  If rookie breakout Camilo Doval isn’t quite ready to take over the ninth inning, the Giants might stick with their loose committee system — Jake McGee will likely again get the bulk of save chances, with Doval, Tyler Rogers, Jose Alvarez (whose club option is very likely to be exercised), Zack Littell, and others all chipping in with saves based on situations.

We’ll begin our look at the Giants’ position player mix with catcher, as Posey’s retirement marks the end of a Cooperstown-level career and in some ways a symbolic end to the era that saw the Giants capture World Series titles in 2010, 2012, and 2014.  Posey might also be the perfect symbol of this Giants rebuild, as his return to All-Star status in 2021 after opting out of the 2020 season and an injury-marred 2019 mirrored the team’s own unexpected rise.

Posey’s retirement gives San Francisco even more financial room to maneuver, as the team was going to at least exercise his $22MM option, and a longer-term extension seemed like a distinct possibility.  However, replacing Posey’s 2021 production is a very tall order no matter the money on hand, and it puts more pressure on Joey Bart to immediately deliver on his potential as one of baseball’s best prospects.

Bart hit .294/.358/.472 with 10 home runs over 279 plate appearances for Triple-A Sacramento this season, which represented his first exposure to Triple-A ball.  Bart hasn’t done much over his 35 games and 117 PA at the big league level, but obviously that sample size isn’t representative of what the former second overall pick might have in store for the future.  The Giants are likely to retain Curt Casali as a veteran backup or platoon partner with Bart in 2022, depending on whether or not the youngster is ready for a larger share of the playing time.

While the Giants aren’t going to do anything to hamper Bart’s long-term development, allowing a rookie catcher time to get his feet wet as a Major League player might not be ideal for a club that wants to win in 2022.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see San Francisco acquire a veteran catcher on a one-year contract to essentially take Posey’s role as the short-term bridge to Bart in 2023, though Bart would still get his share of at-bats this coming season.  Whether this scenario would potentially make Casali expendable remains to be seen, and the Giants also have two other interesting catching prospects (Patrick Bailey, Ricardo Genoves) waiting to make their debuts in the next season or two.

With Posey now retired, Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt are the last Giants remaining from the 2014 championship team.  Belt is a free agent, but we already know Crawford will be staying, as the veteran shortstop rather unexpectedly delivered the best season of his career at age 34, which resulted in a two-year, $32MM contract extension back in August.

Crawford’s extension is both a fitting reward for a long-time franchise fixture, and an interesting early signal for San Francisco’s winter plans.  Since Crawford is now locked up for two more years and star shortstop prospect Marco Luciano is at most a year away from the Show, the Giants might not be inclined to take part in the star-laden free agent shortstop market.  If other teams with greater shortstop needs are targeting those players, it creates an opening for the Giants to focus on prime free agents at other positions.

Or, to pivot, the Giants might look at one of those shortstops at a position other than shortstop.  Marcus Semien, for instance, already spent much of 2021 playing second base for the Blue Jays, and could potentially be willing to take on that role over the longer term to play for a contender (and particularly a contender that plays in Semien’s hometown of San Francisco).  Zaidi’s past job in the Dodgers’ front office has made him very familiar with Corey Seager, and since there is already some sense that Seager will to change positions eventually, it is possible Seager might be open to making the move now under the right circumstances.  For what it’s worth, there hasn’t been speculation that Crawford could switch positions, and that type of move seems unlikely since Crawford continues to be one of the better defensive shortstops around.

Chris Taylor might be a particular free agent name to watch, as he is another player with past ties to Zaidi in Los Angeles, and Taylor’s ability to play multiple positions fits the Giants’ love of versatile players.  Taylor wouldn’t be as expensive as any of the “big five” shortstops (Seager, Semien, Carlos Correa, Javier Baez, and Trevor Story) but he would still require a significant multi-year contract, and some draft pick compensation since he’ll be turning down the Dodgers’ qualifying offer.

Getting another super-utility type would help the Giants juggle playing time around the diamond, since the team already has a lot of available options.  This is the interesting challenge facing Zaidi’s front office this winter when it comes to position player additions — the Giants have had great success in mixing and matching players throughout the lineup, but to take the next step towards a World Series ring, which reliable everyday stars are needed?  And, since pretty much everyone on the roster played well in 2021, which of the productive platoon situations is the team willing to supplant with a single everyday player?

For instance, adding Taylor or the ultra-durable Semien at second base would lock down a position that already has depth, but also question marks.  Wilmer Flores is likely to be retained and Thairo Estrada impressed in limited action in 2021, but Donovan Solano is a free agent and Tommy La Stella’s Opening Day readiness is in question due to Achilles surgery.

For first base, re-signing Belt would seem like an obvious move, and there is already some sense that Belt could be back for a 12th season in San Francisco.  Belt also turns 34 in April and has a lengthy injury history, so Belt may not be able to match his 2020-21 numbers going forward.  For as much payroll space as the Giants have on hand, they might prefer to spend those dollars at another position, and instead rely on some combination of Flores, LaMonte Wade Jr. and Darin Ruf as a first base platoon.

Or, maybe the easier solution is to just re-sign Belt and solidify the first base spot.  Belt has been so good over the last two seasons (.285/.393/.595 with 38 homers over his last 560 PA) that such production is hard to replace, and the NLDS was a prime example of how the Giants lineup sorely missed Belt’s bat.  With the DH likely coming to the National League in 2022, the Giants and other NL teams will be on the lookout for more offense, and having a DH spot available could help Belt stay healthy.  Belt’s big numbers make him another candidate for a qualifying offer, and while it isn’t yet known if the Giants will extend such an offer to the first baseman, there would seem to be at least a chance that Belt might take such a deal.  It would secure Belt another year with his longtime team, while also setting up a chance at another big payday next winter if Belt stays healthy and keeps hitting in 2022.

Evan Longoria is another veteran who is no stranger to the injured list, and a two-month absence due to a shoulder strain was the biggest reason Longoria was limited to only 81 games in 2021.  Longoria hit well when he did play, and with the likes of Flores, Estrada, and La Stella all capable of playing third base, the Giants will probably stand pat at the hot corner barring something unexpected like Seager signing and then changing positions.  This is purely speculation, but if the Giants did have a larger move in mind, Longoria might be an under-the-radar trade candidate since he has only one guaranteed year left on his contract (and the Rays are still paying a notable chunk of Longoria’s salary).

In the outfield, the collection of Bryant, Wade, Ruf, Mike Yastrzemski, Steven Duggar, Austin Slater, Alex Dickerson, and others all combined to give the Giants above-average production.  Re-signing Bryant or a similar everyday name (i.e. Starling Marte, Mark Canha) would account for one position on a regular basis, reducing the number of platoon situations the Giants would have to monitor, and it would also allow players like Wade or Ruf to see more time in the infield.  Dickerson seems like a non-tender or trade candidate, and if another outfielder is acquired, the Giants might feel they have enough of a surplus to make some other outfield names available in trade talks.  Prospect Heliot Ramos didn’t have a great 2021 campaign in the minors, but he should also be available for his MLB debut next year.

Since Bryant is capable of regularly playing or at least filling in at five different positions, re-signing the former NL MVP would seem like a natural way to address San Francisco’s roster needs.  There is enough of a fit that a reunion between the two sides probably can’t be ruled out until Bryant officially signs elsewhere, yet Zaidi seemed to imply that Bryant was only one of many possibilities open to the Giants, and not necessarily a priority.

It is a sign of how the Giants’ approach has evolved that San Francisco now has the luxury of waiting on talents like Bryant, since the Giants have perhaps the most overall flexibility (from both a financial standpoint and a roster standpoint) of any team.  While Zaidi’s tenure has seen the Giants at least make some exploratory measures towards bigger-name acquisitions in the past, this may be the first offseason where Zaidi will have the organization’s full resources behind him, fully directed towards contending and winning.  Expect a lot of rumors and headlines out of San Francisco this winter, as the Giants’ next steps could be the talk of the offseason.

Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

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The Brewers’ fourth consecutive postseason appearance ended in more October heartbreak, as the Braves eliminated Milwaukee in four games in the NLDS.  As the Brewers look to contend again next season, some tough financial decisions may have to be made depending on how far ownership is willing to stretch the payroll.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Christian Yelich, OF: $188.5MM through 2028 (includes $6.5MM buyout of $20MM mutual option for 2029)
  • Lorenzo Cain, OF: $18MM through 2022
  • Jackie Bradley Jr., OF: $17.5MM in 2022 (includes $8MM buyout of $12MM mutual option for 2023 — Bradley can opt out of $9.5MM salary for 2022, and receives $6.5MM buyout in the event of an opt-out)
  • Freddy Peralta, SP: $12.75MM through 2024 (includes $1.5MM buyout of $8MM club option for 2025; Brewers also hold $8MM club option for 2026 with no buyout)
  • Kolten Wong, 2B: $10MM in 2022 (includes $2MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2023)
  • Josh Lindblom, RP: $2.75MM in 2022 (Brewers outrighted Lindblom off 40-man roster in May)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Much of the Brewers’ buzz early in the offseason has focused on their executives being targeted by the Mets, though New York’s inquiries ended up being much ado about nothing.  The Brewers again denied the Mets permission to speak with president of baseball operations David Stearns, and assistant GM Matt Arnold also removed his name from consideration and ended up with a contract extension to remain in Milwaukee.  This situation is worth monitoring for the future, considering that Stearns’ contract may or may not be up after the 2022 season, depending on a possible vesting option that could extend the Brewers’ control over the PBO through 2023.  With the Mets’ interest looming, there is sure to be plenty of attention paid to Stearns’ status with the Brew Crew, though one would expect owner Mark Attanasio to again look into extending his top baseball exec.

For now, Stearns’ focus is on figuring out how to get Milwaukee to take the next step and reach a World Series.  Offense was a problem for the Brewers even as they had a fairly comfortable run to the NL Central title, and the issue came to a head when the Brewers scored only six runs in their four games with Atlanta.  A change has already been made at hitting coach, but some lineup reinforcements are also a must.

Looking at the more settled positions, Willy Adames, Kolten Wong, and breakout player Luis Urias all hit well in 2021 and have three of the infield spots covered.  All-Star catcher Omar Narvaez slumped badly in the second half but still finished with roughly league-average offense (99 OPS+ and wRC+) for the season, which represents a bounce-back from a brutal 2020 campaign.

Manny Pina hit well enough to make up for some of Narvaez’s late struggles, though Pina is now set for free agency after six years as a part-time starter and backup in Milwaukee.  There is enough need for catching around the league that another team could offer Pina a more regular job, though the 34-year-old could reunite with the Brewers on a new contract if Pina is comfortable in his current role.  If Pina doesn’t re-sign, the Crew will be on the hunt for a new backup catcher, preferably a right-handed hitter considering Narvaez’s lack of production against southpaws.  Prospect Mario Feliciano is also on hand, and Luke Maile could return if tendered a contract.

Eduardo Escobar is another free agent, and is less likely to return considering that Wong and Urias are slated for everyday work at second and third base.  This is another area where the Brewers will be looking for backup options, likely a utility type given the front office’s penchant for versatile players.  Retaining Jace Peterson could help in that regard, and the Brewers could pair Peterson with a right-handed hitter to provide additional coverage on the bench.

Rowdy Tellez was streaky and spent some time on the injured list, but the slugger hit well after being acquired from the Blue Jays in July, and Tellez seems to be penciled in for at least a share of the first base job.  This leaves Daniel Vogelbach as a possible non-tender candidate, as even if the National League has a DH position available in 2022, having both Tellez and Vogelbach as left-handed hitting first base-only players seems like a redundancy.  Tellez is over two years younger than Vogelbach, has an extra year of team control and had better numbers in 2020-21, though Vogelbach did miss a good chunk of last season due to injury.  All things considered, it would seem like the Brewers would favor Tellez over Vogelbach, though with only a $2MM projected salary for Vogelbach, it wouldn’t break the bank to keep him around.

A right-handed complement seems like a necessary add for the first base/DH mix, though Milwaukee is probably still hopeful that Keston Hiura can fill that role from within.  Hiura is only 25 years old and has just 791 MLB plate appearances to his name, and while the Brewers aren’t likely to give up on the former top prospect, adding a more proven veteran seems logical given how badly Hiura has struggled over the last two seasons.  Ideally, the Brewers could find a versatile player who can hit from the right side and fill in at several infield spots (i.e. Josh Harrison, Asdrubal Cabrera, Matt Duffy).  If the team looked to just first base-only types, Milwaukee could be a hypothetical landing spot for Albert Pujols, as odd as it would be to see Pujols on an NL Central team besides the Cardinals.

The outfield is far less set than the infield, even if three outfield starters are technically already in place.  Jackie Bradley Jr. is coming off a rough year at the plate and is sure to exercise his $9.5MM player option for 2022 rather than test free agency.  Lorenzo Cain will return for the final year of his contract, and Christian Yelich’s contract extension will now officially begin, as 2022 is the first season of the seven years and $188.5MM in new money guaranteed under the terms of his deal.

Yelich is the biggest question, as in the two seasons since inking that extension, he’s gone from perennial MVP candidate to only slightly more than a league-average bat — his .234/.360/.392 slash line over 722 PA in 2020-21 translates to a 103 OPS+ and 105 wRC+.  Yelich is still making plenty of hard contact but his power numbers have dwindled, his strikeout rate has risen sharply, and opposing teams have been using the shift much more frequently against him, which has sapped his offensive production.

Cain is another player whose bat has gone south, hitting only .260/.328/.381 in 930 PA since the start of the 2019 season.  Cain opted out for much of the 2020 campaign and sandwiched that lost year between two injury-plagued seasons, so the Brewers simply can’t be sure of what to expect from Cain as he enters his age-36 season.  The same goes for Bradley, who was healthy last year but his offense absolutely cratered in his first year in Milwaukee.

Considering Yelich, Cain, and Bradley are the three highest-paid players on Milwaukee’s payroll, this certainly isn’t a welcome situation for a team with a fairly limited mid-market budget.  The Brew Crew has no recourse but to count on a rebound from Yelich given their long-term commitment, and since Cain and Bradley are still providing superb defense, the Brewers could just go with a Cain/Bradley platoon in center field and give the promising Tyrone Taylor a clear shot at everyday at-bats in right field.

Avisail Garcia was far and away the best hitter in Milwaukee’s 2021 outfield, but he amassed just enough plate appearances to trigger a vesting option in his contract, turning the Brewers’ $12MM club option for 2022 into a mutual option.  It can be reasonably assumed that the team would still want to retain Garcia at that price, though since mutual options are rarely agreed upon by both sides, it seems likely that Garcia will decline his end of the deal and test the free agent market in search of a longer-term commitment.

This leaves a big hole in the Brewers’ lineup, though some scenarios exist where Garcia is back in Milwaukee next year.  Assuming he opts for free agency, the Brewers could then issue a qualifying offer — Garcia might be more open to a one-year deal for an $18.4MM payday than for $12MM.  If Garcia declined the QO, the Brewers could at least recoup a compensatory draft pick if he signed elsewhere.  If Garcia accepted the QO, that puts another hefty salary on the Brewers’ books, but the team could pivot by trying to see what they could get for Cain or Bradley on the trade market.

Cain or Bradley alone would be tough sells as trade chips, unless the Brewers were to take on another team’s unpalatable contract…or if the Brewers paired one of those outfielders with a more sought-after trade asset.  You guessed it, it’s time for another offseason of Josh Hader trade speculation, and packaging the All-Star closer as part of a larger deal would be a bold way for the Crew to both clear some salary space and bring some young talent into the pipeline.

Hader delivered another excellent season, and his salary is now set to jump from $6.675MM to a projected $10MM in his third of four arbitration-eligible years.  That is still quite a reasonable sum for arguably the best reliever in baseball, yet it does represent a big portion of Milwaukee’s payroll, so the time may finally be right for the Brewers to pull the trigger on a Hader deal.

It doesn’t seem likely that the Crew would spend much to replace Hader, as Devin Williams is already the heir apparent at closer and Brent Suter had a nice year as a setup man.  The Brewers have consistently been able to score with inexpensive bullpen additions, so while Brad Boxberger and Hunter Strickland are set for free agency, the club will probably look to fill those gaps and the potential loss of Hader with other lower-level additions.

The bullpen is also supported by one of the sport’s best rotations.  Corbin Burnes will receive Cy Young Award consideration, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta weren’t too far behind, and Eric Lauer, Adrian Houser, and Brett Anderson all provided quality work at the back end.  Anderson is a free agent, so Milwaukee could give youngster Aaron Ashby a longer look as a starter, or bring in another low-cost veteran hurler if Anderson himself isn’t brought back.

Hader is the priciest member of a large Milwaukee arbitration class that projects to top the $40MM threshold, even after subtracting a few non-tender candidates.  Between the arb-eligibles, the players on guaranteed contracts, and the pre-arbitration players, Roster Resource calculates around $112.4MM on the Brewers’ books for 2022.  This already represents the larger Brewers payroll since Attanasio bought the team in 2005, though in 2019 (the last pre-pandemic season), the Brew Crew’s payroll surged to over $132MM by the end of the year.

With 2022 promising to be a more normal year revenue-wise, could ownership green-light another spending bump?  Returning to even 2019’s spending levels would give Stearns some flexibility in making offseason moves, and perhaps allow a decision on Hader’s future to be held off until next winter.  In fact, all those rising arbitration costs for key pitchers could lead to more tough decisions as early as the 2022-23 offseason, so an argument can be made that this roster should be given one last chance to win a championship before the Brewers have to start thinking about parting ways with other core pieces.

This doesn’t necessarily mean that we’ll see another blockbuster move like the Cain signing or Yelich’s extension.  The Brewers have enough talent in place that just a return to form from Yelich in 2022 might be all the club needs to make more noise in the playoffs.  With no guarantee of that scenario, however, expect the team to add at least one big bat to guard against another October power outage.

Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

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After scoring big in last year’s free agent market, the Blue Jays have some major holes to fill as they look to take the next step forward for a playoff berth.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (salary projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • None

Free Agents

Despite winning 91 games, the Blue Jays still finished fourth in the stacked AL East, as the Red Sox and Yankees each won 92 games and earned wild card berths.  While so many things went right for the club in 2021, falling just a game shy of the playoffs leads to a thousand “if only…” scenarios.  Since the division doesn’t figure to get any easier next year, the Blue Jays are now challenged to not only get back to that 91-win threshold, but likely to bank a few more victories and break through to the postseason.

Fortunately for Toronto fans, the Jays already started preparing for 2022 even while in the midst of last year’s pennant race.  Acquiring Jose Berrios, Adam Cimber, and Trevor Richards not only helped the Blue Jays bolster their in-season pitching needs, but all three hurlers came with extra years of control (Berrios through 2022, Cimber/Richards through 2023).  That gave the Jays a jump on solidifying a bullpen that struggled badly in the first half, and Berrios adds another front-of-the-rotation arm to a starting five that might lose two arms to free agency.

Robbie Ray was one of the bargains of the 2020-21 offseason.  The southpaw quickly re-signed with the Jays for a one-year, $8MM pact, and then delivered a season that may yet result in a Cy Young Award.  Steven Matz’s contributions also shouldn’t be overlooked, as Matz battled with his consistency from time to time but still posted a solid 3.82 ERA over 150 2/3 innings.

Bringing back either of these pitchers is a distinct possibility.  Ray will require perhaps the priciest contract given to any free agent pitcher this winter, though he has spoken highly of his time with the Jays and the coaching staff’s help in unlocking this new level of production.  As a common matter of business, Ray will receive and reject a qualifying offer from the Blue Jays, though the team is also reportedly thinking about issuing Matz the QO.  That would be a bold move since $18.4MM is likely well beyond what the Jays would normally feel comfortable giving to Matz in average annual value.  However, if Matz accepted the one-year deal, the Jays could cross one big need off their checklist very early in the offseason.

And, if Matz rejected the QO, that would put the Jays in line for compensatory draft pick.  That would make it as many as three extra picks for Toronto if Matz, Ray, and Marcus Semien all rejected qualifying offers and signed elsewhere.  With this bonus draft-day stockpile, the Jays could feel more comfortable about surrendering another pick in order to ink another “qualified” free agent.  (Caveat: this assumes some type of similar qualifying offer/compensatory pick system will continue to be in place in the next collective bargaining agreement between the league and players.)

Berrios, Hyun Jin Ryu, and rookie star Alek Manoah are currently lined up to fill the top three spots in Toronto’s 2022 rotation.  The Blue Jays hope that Nate Pearson can stay healthy and have a Manoah-esque breakout, though the club might also use Pearson in the bullpen.  Doing so would help to monitor his innings, which could be necessary considering how Pearson has pitched only 187 total innings in five seasons of pro ball.  Ross Stripling will also return to make starts at the back end of the rotation or work as a long reliever, while younger arms like Anthony Kay, Thomas Hatch, or (if he isn’t non-tendered) Trent Thornton provide more starting depth.

If not Ray or Matz, some type of additional help is needed for this rotation mix.  The signings of Ryu and George Springer over the last two seasons are evidence that the Jays are comfortable shopping at the top of the market, so pretty much any member of the free agent starter class is a possibility.  The Jays could target the bigger names, or perhaps go after one big-ticket pitcher and then a lower-tier arm in search of a rebound year (essentially, the next Ray or Matz).

The same could also be true of the bullpen market, though traditionally, the Jays haven’t spent much on relief pitching since Ross Atkins became general manager.  The club’s $5.5MM deal with Kirby Yates last winter counted as a big investment by that standard, yet that contract quickly became a bust since Yates missed the entire year due to Tommy John surgery.

Yates’ bad elbow was one of many injuries that ravaged Toronto’s bullpen early in the season.  While the sheer volume of maladies is maybe unlikely to happen again, Atkins may focus on stockpiling bullpen depth to guard against a repeat scenario.  This could manifest itself in a flood of minor league deals or low-cost MLB deals, or the front office might aim higher on the reliever market and look to someone in the Corey Knebel/Collin McHugh tier to join with Cimber, Richards, Tim Mayza, Julian Merryweather, and closer Jordan Romano.

Besides just free agents, the Blue Jays can always look to add arms via trade.  The Jays has already parted with notable talent (Rowdy Tellez for Richards; top prospects Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson for Berrios) to land pitching, so this is another instance where multiple compensatory picks could factor into the team’s decision-making.  If the Jays know they’ll have two or three extra picks to reload the farm in the next draft, they might be more willing to swap another significant youngster this winter.

It’s probably unlikely that Toronto would move such blue-chip prospects as Gabriel Moreno, Jordan Groshans, or Orelvis Martinez, yet moving Martin a year after drafting him fifth overall also didn’t seem likely until it happened.  If the right controllable star player is available, Atkins has shown that he is willing to take the big plunge on the trade front.  For instance, to land a premium position player like Ketel Marte or (past Jays trade target) Jose Ramirez, the Jays could be more amenable to giving up a major prospect.

Alternatively, trading an infielder like Groshans or Martinez could be more palatable if the Jays knew Semien would be in the fold for years to come.  After betting on himself with a one-year, $18MM deal last winter, Semien hit the jackpot with a huge 45-homer campaign.  With two MVP-caliber performances in his last three seasons, Semien is now set to receive one of the bigger contracts of any free agent this winter, even in an offseason that features so many other elite shortstops.

Of course, Semien didn’t play much shortstop during his year in Toronto, instead working as the everyday second baseman alongside shortstop Bo Bichette.  Since Bichette’s defense improved as the year went on, a Jays/Semien reunion would likely hinge on whether Semien is open to remaining at second base.  Semien has the leverage to call his own shot at this point, so if he is prioritizing a return to shortstop or (as some reports suggest) a return to the West Coast, the Blue Jays may be out of luck.

The Jays’ lineup still has a lot of pop even without Semien.  Bichette, a healthier Springer, Teoscar Hernandez, and MVP candidate Vladimir Guerrero Jr. form a strong nucleus.  Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has shown to be incredibly productive when on one of his hot streaks.  Catchers Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen were similarly up-and-down amid injury-hampered 2021 seasons but still finished as above-average offensive contributors by measure of wRC+.

Santiago Espinal also surprisingly emerged to deliver some quality hitting from the third base position, which helped counter Cavan Biggio’s down year.  Heading into 2022, the Espinal/Biggio combination could work as a platoon at third base or second base, depending on how the Blue Jays fill Semien’s spot.  Espinal can handle either position from a defensive perspective, while a move to second base might be preferable for Biggio since his glovework struggled at the hot corner.  Prospect Otto Lopez is another super-utility option who made his MLB debut in 2021 and could be ready for a longer look on Toronto’s bench next year.

Still, this flexibility allows the Jays to explore all options at either infield position.  They could try to land a longer-term star (e.g. re-signing Semien, trading for Jose Ramirez, signing Corey Seager), or maybe obtain a veteran stopgap (e.g. Kyle Seager) to act as a bridge to Groshans or Martinez.  Signing a multi-position player like Chris Taylor would only further increase their roster’s versatility, but with so many right-handed hitters already in the fold, a lefty or switch-hitter could be preferable.

Without a regular DH on the roster, the Blue Jays have enough space in the lineup to find at-bats for the outfield core of Gurriel, Springer, Hernandez, and Randal Grichuk.  That said, although Grichuk has some power and can at least fill in at all three outfield spots, he also has just 1.5 combined fWAR since the start of the 2019 season.  He seems like an expendable piece if the Jays can find a taker for the $18.66MM remaining on his contract.

Gurriel is cheaper and has more trade value, but he also has more value to the Jays.  Toronto might rue moving Gurriel if he should develop as a consistent hitter in another team’s lineup.  If one of Gurriel or Grichuk was dealt, the Blue Jays could explore re-signing Corey Dickerson, a left-handed bat who hit pretty well after being obtained from the Marlins.

With so many possibilities open to the Blue Jays this winter, it’s worth wondering just how much payroll space will be available to the club.  Toronto has a deep arbitration class that is projected to be worth more than $40MM, factoring in big raises for Berrios, Hernandez, and Guerrero.  Ryu and Springer take up big chunks of the guaranteed money on the books, though overall, the Jays have roughly $112.4MM to $114.5MM (as per Cot’s Baseball Contracts and Roster Resource) committed to their 2022 payroll.

Team president Mark Shapiro has already indicated that the Jays are prepared to spend more next season than they did in 2021, which means an increase from the roughly $140.6MM Roster Resource calculated as the club’s 2021 expenditures.  Not all of these extra funds could be spent specifically in the offseason, as the Blue Jays will likely want to keep some money free for any necessary in-season transactions.  However, since Toronto’s payroll topped the $165MM threshold (as per Cot’s) as recently as 2017, the Jays might have quite a bit of cash on hand to swing transactions assuming ownership is fine with a return to that level of spending.  Acquiring a new high-salaried player or re-signing one of Semien or Ray would alone take up a big portion of those extra funds, so the Blue Jays might look to trim some of their existing costs through trades.

It is also worth noting that Springer is the only player on the books beyond the 2023 season, so the Jays could get creative in signing players to backloaded contracts.  This future salary space will also come in handy as the team starts thinking about extensions.  Berrios is the most pressing concern entering his final year of control, while Hernandez has two years of control remaining.  Some long-term mega-deals will be required if the team hopes to lock up Bichette and especially Guerrero at this point.

The 2021 season has to be considered something of a missed opportunity for the Jays, considering how Semien and Ray performed beyond expectations, Manoah delivered the rookie breakout that was expected for Pearson, and Guerrero emerged as one of baseball’s best hitters.  Still, the team heads into 2022 with a lot of momentum, and a return to normalcy has already been established now that the Jays are officially back in Toronto (as opposed to Buffalo and Dunedin).  The Blue Jays would’ve loved to have cap off that homecoming with some playoff games this October, but they’ll now need to do some work this offseason to make that dream a reality next fall.

Offseason Outlook: New York Yankees

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The Yankees reached the playoffs but had another unsatisfying postseason, losing to the arch-rival Red Sox in the AL wild card game.  Some new faces will inevitably join the roster, but the possibility exists for a larger overhaul as the Yankees reload for a deeper run into October.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Gerrit Cole, SP: $252MM through 2028 (Cole can opt out after 2024 season, or Yankees can overwrite opt-out by adding a $36MM salary for 2029)
  • Giancarlo Stanton, OF: $189MM through 2027 (includes $10MM buyout of $25MM club option for 2028 — Marlins will cover $10MM of Stanton’s contract each season from 2026-28)
  • DJ LeMahieu, IF: $75MM through 2026
  • Aaron Hicks, OF: $41MM through 2025 (includes $1MM buyout of $12.5MM club option for 2026)
  • Aroldis Chapman, RP: $16MM through 2022
  • Rougned Odor, 2B/3B: $15MM through 2022 (includes $3MM buyout of $13.5MM club option for 2023 — Rangers covering all of Odor’s salary minus the MLB minimum for 2022)
  • Zack Britton, RP: $14MM through 2022
  • Luis Severino, SP: $13.75MM through 2022 (includes $2.75MM buyout of $15MM club option for 2023)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Brett Gardner, OF:  $2.3MM player option — Yankees have a $7.15MM club option ($1.15MM buyout) if Gardner declines his player option
  • Joely Rodriguez, RP: $3MM club option for 2022 ($500K buyout, paid by Rangers if Yankees decline the option)
  • Darren O’Day, RP: $1.4MM player option for 2022 ($700K buyout — Yankees have a $3.15MM club option if O’Day declines his player option)

Free Agents

“At times it looked unstoppable, but many other times unwatchable” is how GM Brian Cashman summed up his team, which won 92 games in baseball’s toughest division and yet still seemed like underachievers in the eyes of many Bronx fans.  The Yankees rarely seemed fully locked in for much of the season, but there was still enough talent on the roster to tread water through the hard times until the team could again get on a hot streak.

The high talent ceiling also came with a pretty low floor, however, which stood out in a division where the Rays, Red Sox, and Blue Jays seemed to squeeze more out of all 26 roster spots.  Injuries played a part in the Yankees’ lack of depth, though that depth shortage was also something of a self-created problem, as New York made every roster move with an eye towards staying under the $210MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold.

Exceeding the threshold for a third straight season would’ve put the Yankees in line for the maximum repeater penalty (a 50% tax on every dollar spent over $210MM), and that was a price that the team was simply not willing to pay.  With this in mind, the Yankees still did well to acquire the likes of Anthony Rizzo and Joey Gallo in midseason trades while staying under the CBT threshold, yet the idea of the big-budget Yankees operating under self-imposed spending restrictions didn’t sit well in the Big Apple.

The Yankees also dipped under the tax line in 2018 in order to reset their penalty status, and then were back to their usual higher-spending selves in both 2019 and 2020.  On paper, this could mean the Bronx Bombers will be ready and willing to throw some cash around this winter, particularly since the CBT rules could be changed altogether depending on how baseball’s next collective bargaining agreement shakes out.

That said, between the guaranteed contracts on the books and the team’s large arbitration class, the Yankees are already in luxury tax territory before the offseason even officially begins — Cot’s Baseball Contracts and Roster Roster Resource estimate the Yankees’ current 2022 CBT number as roughly in the range of $221.1MM to $223.7MM.  If ownership and the front office don’t overly care about blowing past the tax line once, this might not be an issue (and again, we don’t know what the tax threshold will be in 2022, or if the CBT will continue to exist in its current form). But, given how the Yankees have been operating with some level of financial restraint in the Hal Steinbrennner era, a full-on acquisition frenzy may not be all that likely.

This isn’t to say the Yankees couldn’t carve out some room by trading or even non-tendering some of those arbitration-eligible players.  Miguel Andujar and Clint Frazier seem more like spare parts than future cornerstones at this point, and Luke Voit’s stock has dropped after an injury-plagued 2021 season.  Or, if not the arb-eligibles, could someone like Luis Severino be dealt to a team in need of pitching, if the Yankees are ready to move on after three years of injury woes for the right-hander?  Packaging one or two of these players together into one trade would be a creative way to address another roster need, repurpose some salary, or perhaps just clear some payroll space for a bigger signing down the road.

If getting rid of such players doesn’t sound feasible, Cashman has already indicated that he wants a more athletic, defensively-capable roster next year, with hitters less prone to strikeouts.  This doesn’t bode well for the likes of Voit, and if another starting infielder is acquired and Gio Urshela assumes a super-sub infield role, having both Rougned Odor and Tyler Wade as light-hitting backup infielders suddenly becomes redundant.

Figuring out which incumbents will remain on the roster is tricky since quite a few regulars struggled in 2022, yet it can be assumed that Urshela, Gleyber Torres, and DJ LeMahieu aren’t going anywhere.  This trio is currently penciled in for starting infield roles (with Voit getting some time at first base or DH), leaving a big hole at shortstop that Cashman has already identified as a need.

The 2021-22 free agent market is loaded with premium shortstops.  Any of Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Javier Baez, or Trevor Story would cost a hefty sum, yet any would also provide a marked improvement over Torres’ shaky shortstop defense and his average offensive output over the last two seasons.  The Yankees are hoping that moving Torres back to second base will help him rebound from a pair of subpar years, and since Torres is only entering his age-25 season, it is too early for the Yankees to give up on a player who has shown such potential in the past.

Getting a new veteran mentor as a double-play partner would also surely help Torres’ development, and give the Yankees some stability in the middle infield — if Torres struggles again in 2022, he might become an expendable part in a year’s time.  The presence of top shortstop prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza must also be considered, whether as candidates to move to other positions, or as shortstops of the future that the Yankees wouldn’t want to block by adding a star veteran on a long-term contract.

With this in mind, it’s possible the Yankees would choose to spend their money on other areas and instead only acquire a shorter-term option to play shortstop.  Trading for a player like Paul DeJong or old friend Didi Gregorius, for example, would provide New York some flexibility for the future, even if such a move would seem like a stopgap measure for a team trying to win immediately.  The Yankees could try to have it both ways, and sign one of the big shortstops this winter and then explore a possible position change (i.e. Seager to third base or Semien to second base) should Volpe and/or Peraza force the issue in a couple of seasons.

New York also might not stop at just one new infielder.  LeMahieu and Urshela are versatile enough that the Yankees could explore adding help at first or third base.  For the hot corner, that might mean looking into a Matt Chapman trade, or maybe the team could try to sign both Corey and Kyle Seager for an all-in-the-family left side of the infield.  At first base, Rizzo provided unspectacular but decent production after being acquired from the Cubs at the trade deadline, and as a left-handed hitter with lots of contact skills, he fits multiple needs for the Yankees.  Rizzo’s old Chicago teammate Kris Bryant might be an even more ideal fit as a player who could be moved around the diamond, yet Bryant’s asking price could be over $200MM, and possibly beyond the Yankees’ comfort zone if they’re also splurging on a shortstop.  Even Rizzo might be pricier than the Yankees are willing to spend on the first base position, especially since Voit is still on hand.

The outfield seems pretty set, with Gallo and Aaron Judge flanking returning center fielder Aaron Hicks, while Giancarlo Stanton will probably mostly serve as the DH but also get some time in the corners.  The Yankees aren’t likely to exercise their $7.15MM club option on Brett Gardner, but if Gardner either picks up his own player option or another deal is worked out between the two sides, it’s probably safe to just assume the longtime regular will return for yet another season in the Bronx.  Andujar, Frazier, and Estevan Florial also factor into the depth picture depending on how many return in 2022.

As with the infield, though, there are some questions within these ostensibly settled positions.  Hicks has been bothered by injuries throughout his career, and wrist surgery limited him to a career-low 32 games last season.  Gallo’s Yankees tenure didn’t get off to a great start, as he struck out a whopping 88 times in 228 plate appearances while batting only .160/.303/.404 with 13 home runs.  Gallo is another arbitration-eligible player the Yankees could potentially look to deal, though his value is lower now than it was when New York got him from the Rangers at the trade deadline, and Gallo’s ability to play center field provides useful versatility if Hicks is injured again.

There weren’t many concerns about Judge in 2021, which was a boon after the slugger played in only 242 of a possible 384 games in 2018-20 due to injuries.  Judge has always been a dangerous bat when healthy, and with 633 PA to work with last year, he hit 39 home runs to go along with a .287/.373/.544 slash line.  Judge is entering his final arbitration year, and while the Yankees have a pretty solid policy against contract extensions, one would expect they’d at least have some talks with Judge in Spring Training about signing a long-term deal.

Catcher is perhaps the biggest conundrum position the Yankees face, as there are equal cases to be made for retaining or parting ways with Gary Sanchez.  After a rough 2020 season, Sanchez rebounded to post roughly league-average offense last year, which is solid from the catcher’s position.  However, Sanchez also had another high strikeout rate, and his longstanding defensive issues behind the plate again saw him lose playing time to Kyle Higashioka down the stretch.

After four seasons of drama and rumors about Sanchez’s status, the Yankees might be open to moving on, as Cashman didn’t even confirm that Sanchez would be the starting catcher in 2022.  The catching position is thin enough that Sanchez wouldn’t be non-tendered, yet by that same logic, the lack of obvious available upgrades could mean the Bombers might just hang onto Sanchez for his final year of team control.  If Sanchez were dealt, a one-year stopgap signing of a familiar face like Austin Romine or Robinson Chirinos could team with Higashioka until the Yankees figure out a longer-term answer.

With so many hitters underwhelming in 2021, the irony is that the Yankees ended up being carried by their pitching last year, even though there was plenty of uncertainty about their mix of arms heading into Opening Day.  While many of those pitchers will be returning, the Yankees now face the challenge of seeing if they can duplicate or better that performance, and some reinforcements may be required.

Gerrit Cole and Jordan Montgomery have rotation spots locked up, with Severino, Domingo German, and Nestor Cortes Jr. penciled into the other three spots.  Severino’s health is always a question, German pitched only 98 1/3 innings due to shoulder problems, and while Cortes’ emergence was a fun storyline, his lack of a track record leaves some doubt about whether he can be as effective in 2022.  Jameson Taillon will start at some point, though his recovery from ankle surgery will keep him sidelined until roughly the end of March, so he’ll need time to ramp up after missing virtually all of Spring Training.

This group could be augmented by younger arms, as Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt, and Deivi Garcia all made starts last season and will likely be competing with Cortes and maybe even German for rotation spots come Spring Training.  There is promise but not much experience on hand, so obtaining one more solid veteran pitcher would help the Yankees breathe a little easier.  A reunion with Corey Kluber might be the simplest option, though Kluber had another lengthy injured-list absence in 2021 and can’t be relied upon as a stable eater of innings.

Plenty of interesting candidates exist on the free agent pitching market, and any number of these hurlers would have interest in joining a perpetual contender like the Yankees.  Again, the club’s overall spending plans will determine what types of pitchers will be on the radar.  If New York goes big to land a star position player or two, a mid-tier rotation arm might be the preference.  Or, if the Yankees went for shorter-term options around the diamond, they could invest at the top of the pitching market, perhaps signing Robbie Ray away from the Blue Jays or bringing Marcus Stroman from Queens to the Bronx.

For a less-obvious but still familiar option, a reunion with Masahiro Tanaka also can’t be ruled out.  After signing with the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles last winter, Tanaka hinted at a potential return to both MLB and to the Yankees specifically, so it wouldn’t be a shock to see Tanaka back in the pinstripes now that the Yankees have more flexibility under the luxury tax threshold.

If signing a new starter results in a surplus of rotation candidates, that’s a pretty nice problem to have, as New York could then use those extra arms to bolster the bullpen.  The Yankees got good production from most members of the relief corps last season, but heading into 2022, the team’s two highest-paid relievers are issues.  Zack Britton will miss most or even all of next season after undergoing elbow surgery, while Aroldis Chapman wasn’t his usual dominant self in 2021.  Chapman struggled to contain home runs for the second consecutive year, and he had one of the worst walk rates (15.6%) of any pitcher in baseball.

Chapman’s struggles don’t necessarily auger a change in the closer role, as his numbers were still pretty good overall.  However, the Yankees might give a right-hander like Chad Green or Jonathan Loaisiga more looks in save situations against right-handed batters, or if a new reliever is acquired on a low-cost deal, it could be someone with past closing experience.  On the contract option front, New York is likely to exercise its club option on Joely Rodriguez, while Darren O’Day will probably exercise his player option in the wake of an injury-shortened season.

Finally, the Yankees already took care of some major offseason business when they signed Aaron Boone to a new three-year contract (with a club option for 2025).  While Boone’s old deal was up after this season, it never seemed like there was too much chance of a managerial change, as Cashman and Steinbrenner both expressed their support for Boone at multiple points during the year.

Boone has yet to lead the Yankees to a pennant in his four years as manager, and the team’s 2009 World Series title remains its only trip to the Fall Classic in the last 18 seasons.  This (relative) lack of postseason success has led to a lot of impatience within the fanbase, especially since the Yankees were perceived as being more concerned about avoiding a luxury tax bill than making a full-fledged push to win.

On the other hand, the acquisitions of Rizzo, Gallo, and an under-the-radar steal of a pickup in Clay Holmes showed that Cashman could still make quality additions within a budget, and big spending doesn’t necessarily always equal playoff success.  Cashman is on record as acknowledging the faults of his 2021 team and said “we will be open-minded to everything and anything on this roster” in terms of correcting these shortcomings.  Whether this manifests itself in the form of some more creative trades, mid-tier signings, or a good old-fashioned Yankees spending spree remains to be seen, but the 2021-22 offseason could be a busy one in the Bronx.

Offseason Outlook: Kansas City Royals

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Even after the Royals’ work to put together a contending club in 2021 didn’t pan out, expect newly promoted president of baseball operations Dayton Moore and general manager J.J. Picollo to take another shot at adding some win-now pieces to complement a promising young core.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Salvador Perez, C: $82MM through 2025 (includes $2MM buyout of $13.5MM club option for 2026)
  • Hunter Dozier, 1B/3B/OF: $21.75MM through 2024 (includes $1MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2025)
  • Mike Minor, LHP: $11MM through 2022 (includes $1MM buyout of $13MM club option for 2023)
  • Carlos Santana, 1B/DH: $10.5MM through 2022
  • Michael A. Taylor, OF: $9MM through 2023
  • Whit Merrifield, 2B/OF: $4MM through 2022 (includes $750K buyout of $6.5MM club option for 2023*)
  • Total 2022 commitments: $50.5MM
  • Total of all long-term commitments: $138.25MM

*The value of Merrifield’s 2023 option will increase to $10.5MM if he spends fewer than 109 days on the IL from 2019-22. He has not been on the injured list in that time (or at all in his MLB career).

Projected Salaries for Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Royals got a head-start on some offseason business in September. General manager Dayton Moore was promoted to president of baseball operations, while longtime assistant GM J.J. Piccolo was elevated to the title of general manager. The pair of title bumps helped the Royals to ensure that both well-regarded execs will remain with the club and avoid being considered for lateral moves (that would previously have represented promotions) with other organizations. Meanwhile, the team kept center fielder Michael A. Taylor from reaching the free-agent market by hammering out a two-year, $9MM extension.

Taylor, 31 in March, turned in a dismal .244/.297/.356 batting line (77 wRC+) but played center field at such a ridiculously high level that it really didn’t matter. The Royals loved the glove enough to give Taylor 528 plate appearances, and he rewarded them with 19 Defensive Runs Saved, a 13.3 Ultimate Zone Rating and 15 Outs Above Average — a mark that trailed only Tampa Bay’s Manuel Margot among all MLB outfielders.

The extension for Taylor preemptively answered the Royals’ center field question, and he’ll now return alongside left fielder Andrew Benintendi, who’s due one final arbitration raise. Benintendi no longer looks like the budding star we saw with the 2018 Red Sox, but he’s settled in as a slightly above-average bat and will give Kansas City a solid option for at least the 2022 season (if the team doesn’t look to further extend him this spring). Taylor and Benintendi can hold down two of three outfield spots, but the third is where the path moving forward becomes murkier.

Whit Merrifield and Hunter Dozier are both under contract for multiple seasons — Merrifield through at least 2022 with a 2023 club option, and Dozier through at least 2024 with a 2025 option. The former has been one of the game’s great bargains and a perennially unheralded star (at least relative to the acclaim he receives). The latter scuffled through a dismal 2021 showing that has made last March’s $25MM contract extension look regrettable.

Twenty-four-year-old Kyle Isbel also forced his way into the outfield conversation this year with a solid Triple-A showing (.269/.357/.444, 116 wRC+) and a torrid hot streak following a mid-September call to the Majors. In 47 plate appearances down the stretch, Isbel hit .286/.362/.524.

Isbel is purely an outfielder, but both Merrifield and Dozier can and have played in the outfield and infield extensively. Looking around the infield dirt, however, the picture is quite crowded. Top prospect Bobby Witt Jr.  should seize the shortstop position before too long, and the Royals have already moved Adalberto Mondesi to third base in part to prepare for a potential position change. Nicky Lopez was a Gold Glove candidate at shortstop this year (another reason Mondesi moved to the hot corner) and has likely cemented his spot in next year’s infield mix — even if it means a move to second base.

Kansas City could split first base and designated hitter duties between Dozier and veteran Carlos Santana, with Merrifield taking the bulk of his reps in right field and Isbel getting more work in Triple-A. That might be a palatable option were it not for the looming arrival of another top prospect: first baseman Nick Pratto. The former first-round pick went from potential afterthought to potential building block with a ludicrous minor league season that saw him post a .265/.385/.602 batting line with 36 long balls between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s all but ready for an MLB look himself, and that’s where things get tougher.

First and foremost: Moore has made clear in the past that he has little interest in trading Merrifield. Although Merrifield has long been a player for whom rival fans (and surely rival clubs) have pined in trade scenarios, Kansas City extended him mid-rebuild and has never shown an inclination to move him. Now that Moore & Co. have shifted to a win-now mindset, Merrifield isn’t likely to suddenly be available — even with his club control dwindling.

That said, neither Dozier nor Santana is teeming with trade value. Dozier hit just .216/.285/.394 in 2021 and posted poor defensive marks at multiple positions. Santana was terrific through the season’s first two months before flopping with a .198/.287/.296 slash from June 1 through season’s end. The Royals could explore swapping out either for another sub-optimal contract, but it’s also possible that Dozier simply moves to a bench role and Kansas City hopes for a rebound from one or both. Dozier, after all, has played all four corner spots and finished the season on a big high note, hitting .272/.346/.576 from Sept. 1 onward.

The only other spot on the diamond yet to be addressed in this writing barely even needs mention. Salvador Perez’s 2021 campaign was one of the best by any catcher in Major League history, and he’ll return as the team’s linchpin behind the plate. Perhaps the Royals will explore the market for a veteran backup, as neither Cam Gallagher nor Sebastian Rivero inspires much confidence in the event of an untimely injury to Perez. Then again, both are passable backups — especially considering Perez’s ironman workload — and the Royals likely have a superior safety net waiting in the wings, should Perez require a prolonged stay on the injured list.

For all the attention (rightfully) placed on huge seasons for Witt and Pratto in Double-A and Triple-A, the Royals had a third overwhelming performance from a minor league hitter. Catching prospect MJ Melendez was not only in the Double-A and Triple-A lineups with Witt and Pratto the whole way — he actually outproduced both at the plate. In 531 plate appearances between those two levels, Melendez mashed at a combined .288/.386/.625 pace with 41 home runs. Selected just 38 picks after Pratto in 2017, Melendez joined in his draft-mate in flipping the narrative on that ’17 draft class in convincing fashion.

Unlike Pratto and Witt, however, Melendez doesn’t have a clear path to everyday at-bats moving forward. He could certainly operate as a designated hitter and part-time catcher, gradually increasing his workload behind the dish as Perez’s own workload decreases with age. That opportunity might not present itself until 2023, barring a deal to unload Santana, but it’s certainly one to which the Royals have to be open.

Alternatively, it’s inevitable that catching-needy clubs around the game will see a blocked catching prospect who just put the finishing touches on a mammoth minor league season and try to pry him loose. The Marlins, Astros, Rangers and perhaps the Yankees are all teams in need of long-term solutions behind the dish. This isn’t a situation where the Royals would use Melendez in order to shed a contract such as Santana, to be clear, but Kansas City will field plenty of interest in Melendez this winter. Miami, in particular, is teeming with young pitching it could offer the Royals.

Of course, the Royals have their own collection of impressive young arms on which they’ll rely moving forward. The 2021 Royals were the first team in Major League history to have five pitchers from the same draft class start a game for the team that drafted them (via Royals director of communications Nick Kappel, on Twitter). Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch and Kris Bubic were Kansas City’s top four picks in 2018, and 18th-rounder Jon Heasley made his own MLB debut late in the season. Add breakout righty Carlos Hernandez, veteran Mike Minor, stalwart Brad Keller and righty Jakob Junis to the mix, and the Royals have some obvious depth before even making any additions.

That depth is nice, but it didn’t yield results for the Royals in 2021. Kansas City starters ranked 24th in the Majors with a 4.97 ERA. As was the case with Santana, Minor’s two-year deal failed to pay dividends. He soaked up a team-high 158 2/3 innings but did so with a 5.05 ERA. Fielding-independent metrics were more forgiving, but one has to imagine that the Royals would be open to finding a way to move Minor and the $11MM he’s still guaranteed ($10MM salary in 2022; $1MM buyout of a $13MM club option for 2023).

Looking to the homegrown arms, all four of Singer, Lynch, Kowar and Bubic previously ranked among the game’s top 100 prospects. Singer showed promise during his 2020 debut but took a step back in 2021 (128 1/3 innings, 4.91 ERA). Each of Bubic, Lynch and Kowar walked 10% or more of the hitters they faced and did so with below-average strikeout rates. Not every top-ranked pitching prospect dominates from day one — the vast majority do not, in fact — but it’s fair to say the Royals were probably hoping for better results from at least some of this group through this stage in their young careers.

Be that as it may, the Royals can still count themselves eight deep (if not more) in viable rotation options. They’ll be looking for some to take a step forward, but the fate of next year’s staff is largely dependent on the continued development of the young pitchers. There’s certainly room to add a veteran on a low-cost deal, but the hope will be that some combination of Singer, Bubic, Lynch, Kowar and Hernandez seizes at least a couple of long-term spots.

To recap: the Royals have three near-MLB top-100 prospects, with only one (Melendez) truly being blocked by a veteran. They have more infielders than infield spots available (in part due to underperformers Dozier and Santana), and they have more outfielders than outfield spots available. They’re also teeming with young starters who carry plenty of potential but have yet to piece things together.

It’s not hard to see why the front office is so bullish on the long-term outlook. However, the Royals need a lot of positive strides, from a development standpoint, for this group to be deemed a contender. They could opt for a quiet winter with regard to the lineup and the rotation, relying solely on internal development — or they could do what they did nearly a decade ago and condense some of this talent into more proven stars. It’s been almost nine years since the Royals acquired James Shields and Wade Davis in a trade that sent then-top prospects Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi to Tampa Bay, but the current Kansas City roster is in a somewhat comparable spot.

There’s virtually no scenario in which the Royals move Witt, and Pratto seems quite unlikely to be dealt himself. But with Melendez being blocked, a smorgasbord of young rotation hopefuls and perhaps players like Isbel or Mondesi lacking straightforward paths to playing time, there are multiple avenues for Moore, Picollo and the rest of the front office to explore.

In surprisingly candid fashion this summer, Moore indicated that the team simply can’t count on the wildly talented but oft-injured Mondesi as an everyday player, though he also emphasized the organization had no plans to give up on him. Still, with several other infield options and Mondesi now just two years from free agency, it stands to reason that other clubs will look into acquiring him. Suffice it to say, while the Royals may not be the most active team in the free-agent market, they’ll likely still be active in talks with other clubs around the league.

The one area of the club that this outlook has yet to address, of course, is the bullpen. Dominant relief pitching was a hallmark of the Royals’ 2014-15 World Series clubs, and the foundation for a similarly strong bullpen could be in place. Controllable, power-armed righties Scott Barlow and Josh Staumont had breakout years and positioned themselves as a formidable one-two punch in 2022 and beyond. Rookie southpaw Jake Brentz had a strong debut of his own and averaged 97 mph on his heater, but he’ll need to curb his 13.3% walk rate. Domingo Tapia and Dylan Coleman showed varying levels of promise.

That said, the bullpen is the most obvious area that the Royals could look to spend in free agency. Kansas City is projected for just shy of $87MM in payroll next season (using Swartz’s arbitration projections), and that number could fall with some non-tenders looking quite likely. The Royals have just $33MM on the books in 2023. It’d still be a shock to see them play at the very top of the relief market (i.e. Raisel Iglesias), but any of the second-tier options thereafter (Kendall Graveman, Corey Knebel, etc.) could easily fit into the Royals’ payroll. Putting together a deep bullpen will only take pressure off the young arms in the rotation.

The 2021 season didn’t go as Moore and his staff hoped when dipping back into the free-agent market last winter, but it’s still hard to look at all of the talent on the horizon in Kansas City and not believe better days are ahead. The Royals can afford to make a splash or two in the bullpen. Their growing crop of young talent and considerable payroll space gives them ample leverage to take a bigger swing on the trade market if the opportunity presents itself.

Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Cardinals have already gotten a jump on their offseason business, and with some money likely available to be spent, some major upgrades could be made to the 2022 roster.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Nolan Arenado, 3B: $164MM through 2027 (Arenado has declined to use his opt-out clause following the season; he can opt out of contract following 2022 season)
  • Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: $77MM through 2024
  • Miles Mikolas, SP: $33.5MM through 2023
  • Adam Wainwright, SP: $17.5MM through 2022
  • Paul DeJong, SS: $17MM through 2023 (includes $2MM buyout of $12.5MM club option for 2024)(Cardinals also have $15MM club option for 2025 season, with a $1MM buyout)
  • Yadier Molina, C: $10MM through 2022

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2022 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Matt Carpenter, IF: $18.5MM club option for 2022 ($2MM buyout)
  • Carlos Martinez, SP: $17MM club option for 2022 ($500K buyout)(Cardinals also have $18M club option for 2023 season, with a $500K buyout)

Free Agents

While the Cardinals’ club-record 17-game winning streak was a nice twist for this year’s squad, the late-season surge has almost become routine in St. Louis.  Over the last six years, the Cards are 239-238 in the first halves of seasons, and then a whopping 229-162 in the second half.

As fun as these late charges are, St. Louis fans probably wouldn’t mind a team that can actually bank a few more wins earlier in the year, since the Cardinals have only one division title in those six seasons.  A few more wins in October also wouldn’t hurt; the Cards fell short in the playoffs for the third straight year, losing to the Dodgers in the NL Wild Card game.

Despite another early postseason exit, it was assumed that manager Mike Shildt’s job was perfectly safe, which is why his firing on Oct. 14 caught many in baseball by surprise.  In the phrasing of president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, there were simply too many “philosophical differences” between Shildt and the front office for the relationship to continue, and thus bench coach Oliver Marmol was promoted to the top job in the dugout after the team held a relatively brief managerial search.

The 35-year-old Marmol is baseball’s youngest manager, though he has long been considered a future managerial candidate and (with his entire 15-year professional spent in the St. Louis organization) is no stranger to “The Cardinal Way.”  He won’t have the benefit of a learning curve, however, as Cards fans are getting impatient after eight seasons without a World Series appearance.

Despite the deflating ending, there are plenty of positives to be found from the Cards’ season.  Nolan Arenado came as advertised, Edmundo Sosa emerged as a nice surprise in the middle infield, and the Cardinals’ outfield went from a question mark to a major strength.  Tyler O’Neill had a breakout year, Dylan Carlson had a strong showing in his first full MLB season, and Harrison Bader made a case for himself as a regular by hitting well against both left-handed and right-handed pitching.  Considering that all three also displayed standout defense in addition to their strong hitting, the Cards suddenly had one of baseball’s top all-around outfield trios.

With the three outfielders all blossoming at once, 2021 had some vague feeling of a changing of the guard in St. Louis, and yet how different could things really be with Adam Wainwright still throwing to Yadier Molina?  After the two franchise icons were re-signed relatively late last offseason, the Cardinals wasted no time in arranging reunions for 2022, signing Molina to a one-year extension in August and then inking Wainwright to another one-year pact in September.

Molina has announced that 2022 will be his final season, so the catcher will finally be hanging up the cleats after 19 years in the majors.  Even in his age-38 season, Molina was still delivering quality defense and roughly average offensive production for a catcher, and his game-calling skills and clubhouse leadership are valued almost beyond measure in St. Louis.

Wainwright will return with a hefty raise, going from $8MM in 2021 to $17.5MM next season thanks to an outstanding year that could net him some down-ballot Cy Young Award votes.  Though it seemed Wainwright’s career was winding down after a pair of injury-plagued and generally lackluster seasons in 2017-18, the veteran right-hander has found a second wind, and he has quietly been one of baseball’s better starters over the last two years.

Re-signing Molina and Wainwright for a collective $10.5MM increase on their 2021 salaries might have been a little unexpected for the St. Louis front office, yet it is certainly a price the team is comfortable paying, particularly since a lot of other money is coming off the books.  Longtime Cardinals Matt Carpenter and Carlos Martinez have multiple seasons of struggles now under their belts, and the Cards are sure to decline expensive club options on both players.

Andrew Miller’s free agency opens up another $12MM in salary, and the Cardinals will also be entirely free of Dexter Fowler’s contract.  That puts the payroll for 2022 at roughly $137.22MM, per Roster Resource.  Since the Cardinals’ payroll approached $174MM at the end of the 2019 season, there would seem to be room for Mozeliak to add at least one more big contract.

Between Arenado, Molina, O’Neill, Carlson, Bader, and the ever-dangerous Paul Goldschmidt, the Cardinals already have a lot of their position player mix settled.  There is much to be decided with the middle infield, however, and the possibility of the DH coming to the National League in the next collective bargaining agreement means that more offense could be required.  Ideally, that offense would come from a left-handed bat or two, in order to balance out a largely right-handed Cardinals lineup.  Adding some left-handed thump would give the Cards some flexibility to sign another right-handed bench bat…like, for instance, Albert Pujols in what might be the St. Louis legend’s final Major League season.

Turning back to the middle infield, Sosa, Paul DeJong, and Tommy Edman are all fantastic defenders, so they all bring something to the table even if they’re not hitting.  That said, DeJong and Edman have both been below-average hitters for each of the last two seasons.  And, as fun as Sosa’s 2021 was, there isn’t much in his minor league resume or in his brief MLB career to suggest that he can now be counted on as a reliable bat.

DeJong is by far the most expensive of the trio, so he’d be the most difficult to move if the Cardinals did decide to make a middle infield change.  However, the $17MM remaining on DeJong’s contract isn’t an onerous sum, especially since he at least offers elite defense and some decent home run pop.  As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently illustrated, a team that isn’t willing or able to spend at the top of this year’s free agent shortstop market could turn to a DeJong trade as a backup plan, or perhaps a team that loses its star shortstop (e.g. the Rockies or Astros) could see DeJong as a something of a short-term replacement.

Could the Cardinals themselves land one of the names from that star-studded shortstop class?  The rumors of Trevor Story eventually joining his friend Arenado in St. Louis have percolated practically since Arenado was acquired.  A big left-handed bat like Corey Seager would be a perfect fit for the Cards’ needs.  Or, maybe the Cardinals’ play would be to keep DeJong and Sosa at shortstop, move Edman around the diamond as a utilityman, and acquire a new everyday second baseman.  Marcus Semien, Chris Taylor, or Eduardo Escobar are all options on this front depending on how much of a financial splash St. Louis is willing to make.  That trio can all play multiple positions, and Taylor could also figure into the outfield mix, just to guard against any regression from the starting trio.

It is also possible the Cardinals have a left-handed hitting middle infield solution already on deck.  Top prospect Nolan Gorman has been showing some promise as a second baseman, and his power bat looks ready enough for an MLB debut in 2022.  The Cardinals could give Gorman a look at the keystone and instead save their money for a big addition to the rotation.

As tremendous as Wainwright has been, going into a season counting on a 40-year-old to be the ace of a staff is an obvious risk.  The next three pitchers penciled into next year’s rotation (Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Dakota Hudson) combined for 131 2/3 innings in 2021 due to injuries and, in the case of Hudson’s Tommy John rehab, recovery from past injuries.  If Wainwright keeps fighting off Father Time and any or all of Flaherty, Mikolas, and Hudson return to their 2019 form, the front of the Cardinals’ rotation looks quite strong.

If not, the Cards run the risk of repeating this past summer, when injuries so badly frayed the team’s depth.  Shopping at the top of the market for a frontline ace immediately removes some of the questions from the pitching mix, as the Cardinals could then be more confident that they have enough arms to not only withstand injury, but perhaps to help bolster the bullpen, or even to dangle as trade chips at the deadline.

St. Louis native Max Scherzer has long been coveted by Cardinals fans, and perhaps the veteran would like to cap off his outstanding career by trying to bring another title back to The Gateway City.  Or, Marcus Stroman’s grounder-heavy approach could be even more effective if he was pitching in front of the Cards’ terrific defense.  Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray also stand out on the free agent market, or if Mozeliak prefers to swing another trade, he could check in with a team like the Athletics, as Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt are two members of Oakland’s large and increasingly pricey arbitration class.

Trade deadline additions Jon Lester and J.A. Happ bailed the Cards out by tossing some quality innings, and a reunion with either free agent isn’t out of the question.  The same goes for Kwang Hyun Kim.  While Kim has also had his share of injury concerns and his peripheral numbers aren’t anything special, the southpaw has posted a 2.97 ERA over his 145 2/3 innings in Major League Baseball.

Turning to the in-house names, Jake Woodford is available to start or perhaps work as a swingman, Johan Oviedo gained more experience in 2021, top prospect Matthew Liberatore is knocking on the door, and the Cardinals are hopeful that at least one of Jordan Hicks or Alex Reyes can be healthy enough to be stretched out as starters.  Hicks made a pair of Arizona Fall League starts, and the Cards will at least take a look at him in a starting role next spring (Twitter link via The Athletic’s Katie Woo).

Any of these pitchers could also be used in the bullpen, and the relief corps (like basically every other aspect of the team) rounded itself into a strength for the late-season surge.  Giovanny Gallegos pitched well all season and stepped up as the first-choice closer down the stretch.  St. Louis will probably add an external veteran or two to the pen, so the team could get someone with some closing experience to act as a safety net.  Hicks or Reyes could also again factor into save situations, depending on what ends up happening with their rotation chances.

The Cardinals’ penchant for late comebacks has tended to alleviate some of the pressure on Mozeliak, but the Shildt firing might have removed whatever slack the fanbase has been willing to grant.  Marmol is now the third manager hired by Mozeliak, so the pressure will only increase on the longtime executive to get the Cards back over the playoff hump.  Could another big swing be in the works?  Time will tell, but the Cardinals have the payroll space and perhaps some increased urgency to make a splash.

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds were competitive in 2021 but ultimately came up short of a Wild Card berth. Cincinnati now faces the potential departure of one of their middle-of-the-order hitters, which would leave general manager Nick Krall needing to find some other way to bolster the offense while restructuring a bullpen that was among the league’s worst in 2021. There’s a strong core already in place, but the pressure to supplement it effectively continues to build as the club’s window of contractual control over some key players gets smaller.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Joey Votto, 1B: $57MM through 2023 (includes buyout of 2024 club option)
  • Mike Moustakas, 3B: $38MM through 2023 (includes buyout of 2024 club option)
  • Eugenio Suárez, 3B: $35MM through 2024 (includes buyout of 2025 club option)
  • Sonny Gray, RHP: $10.667MM through 2022 (no buyout on 2023 club option)
  • Shogo Akiyama, CF: $8MM through 2022

Players With Contractual Options

  • Nick Castellanos, RF: Can opt out of contract’s remaining two years and $34MM
  • Wade Miley: LHP: $10MM club option ($1MM buyout)
  • Tucker Barnhart, C: $7.5MM club option ($500K buyout)
  • Justin Wilson, LHP: $2.3MM player option; if Wilson declines, Cincinnati holds a $7.15MM club option ($1.15MM buyout)

Total 2022 commitments (assuming Castellanos opts out and Wilson exercises player option): $90.467MM

Projected Salaries for Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Garrett

Free Agents

The Reds hung around the postseason picture all season, even looking like Wild Card favorites into September. The Cardinals streaked to the National League’s final postseason spot near the end of the year, though, leaving the Reds on the outside looking in for the seventh time in the past eight years.

Cincinnati already made one key decision, signing manager David Bell to a two-year contract extension last month. Bell has been at the helm for three seasons of generally average play, but the front office was evidently pleased enough with his locker room presence and decision-making to give him some security moving forward.

With Bell’s status now certain, Krall and his staff can turn their full focus towards the roster. Nick Castellanos is all but certain to exercise his opt-out clause and test free agency, where he’d be a strong candidate to land a $100+MM deal. Going to nine figures wouldn’t be totally unprecedented for the Reds, but it would require a sharp turnaround from their most recent spending habits.

The Reds were among the most active teams in cutting costs last winter on the heels of a season with no gate revenue. Cincinnati traded away one of the game’s best relievers, Raisel Iglesias, in a move that amounted to little more than a salary dump. They sat out the offseason shortstop market and entered the year running an ill-advised experiment with Eugenio Suárez at short. And there were rumblings last winter about the Reds considering moving some of their arbitration-eligible starting pitchers, although there’s no indication such talks ever got particularly far.

It seems reasonable to expect owner Bob Castellini to greenlight more spending this offseason after a comparatively normal campaign. There’s a line between not further slashing payroll and winning the bidding on a top free agent, though. Even if Castellini signs off on a payroll near 2019’s franchise-record $149MM level — a significant uptick over this past season’s $132MM mark — retaining Castellanos while adequately addressing the roster’s other deficiencies could be a challenge.

Assuming Justin Wilson exercises his player option and Castellanos opts out, the Reds will enter the winter with a little more than $90MM on the books, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Exercising Wade Miley’s $10MM club option would push that total near nine figures. Cincinnati could buy Miley out and reallocate that money, but that’d require parting ways with a pitcher who quietly tossed 163 innings of 3.37 ERA ball this past season despite playing his home games in one of baseball’s more hitter-friendly environments.

Exercising Miley’s option and then putting him on the trade market could be something of a middle ground — allowing the front office to recoup some talent without taking on additional salary. Even in that instance, the Reds would be moving on from a highly affordable deal for a key member of the rotation, though. The most likely outcome still seems to be Cincinnati exercising the option and bringing Miley back, but that’d seem to further decrease the chances of a Castellanos return.

The Reds also have to make a $7MM decision on longtime catcher Tucker Barnhart. The 30-year-old is a career-long member of the organization who’s a generally capable backstop, but rookie Tyler Stephenson already looks like one of the better offensive catchers in baseball. It seems likely they’ll pay Barnhart a $500K buyout instead of exercising his $7.5MM club option. That’d give Stephenson the primary job, although doing so probably requires bringing in a cheaper veteran backup this offseason.

Elsewhere on the diamond, Jesse Winker has one corner outfield spot locked down after a second consecutive huge season. There’s no longer much doubt that Winker is one of the game’s best hitters, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the front office kicks around the possibility of an extension. Winker is under control via arbitration for two more seasons. Projected for a solid $6.8MM salary already, he might not feel pressured into considering a below-market extension at this point. Still, there’s little harm for Cincinnati in at least gauging his asking price on a potential deal.

The rest of the outfield would be an open question if Castellanos opts out, as would the potential designated hitter if the position comes to the National League in collective bargaining this winter. None of Aristides Aquino, Shogo Akiyama nor Nick Senzel look like slam-dunk regulars going into 2022. Tyler Naquin probably did enough this season to lock down a spot somewhere alongside Winker, but either of center or right field (with Naquin manning the other position) would be an area of need.

The free agent center field market is barren behind Starling Marte and utilityman Chris Taylor, both of whom might price themselves out of the bidding for Cincinnati. Mark Canha could be a lower-cost alternative to man right, while Jorge Soler offers a broadly similar skillset to Castellanos (strong exit velocities with below-average defense) for cheaper, albeit with much less consistency at the plate. Avisaíl García, Joc Pederson and Kole Calhoun are among the other alternatives who could be available on the open market.

The outfield could be in line for some turnover, but Cincinnati could be content to fill next year’s infield internally. Franchise icon Joey Votto is locked into the middle of the order following an otherworldly second half. Jonathan India should probably win the National League’s Rookie of the Year award after hitting .269/.376/.459 to seize the second base job.

The Suárez shortstop experiment fell flat, but Kyle Farmer quietly stabilized the position with a nice season after taking over in May. A former catcher, Farmer adapted surprisingly well to shortstop and hit a fine .263/.316/.416 over the course of 529 plate appearances. He’s a 31-year-old utilityman who entered the 2021 campaign with a career .242/.297/.370 slash line, so the front office probably wouldn’t be entirely enthused to hand him the job again heading into 2022. They needn’t do that, though, since top prospect José Barrero looks poised to run with the position at some point.

Barrero hasn’t yet done much at the big league level, but he’s coming off a .306/.392/.592 showing in Triple-A. Baseball America slotted him as the top prospect in the Cincinnati farm system midseason, and the 23-year-old is widely expected to be a fixture in the dirt at Great American Ball Park in the not too distant future. Farmer’s quiet stability gives the Reds some leeway to be patient, but he could easily slide back into a utility role if Barrero begins to translate his immense talent into big league productivity.

For the first time in five years, third base looks like a question mark for Cincinnati. Not only did Suárez struggle defensively in his early-season move to shortstop, his offensive production cratered. Suárez hit 31 home runs, but it came with his worst walk rate since 2016 (9.8%) and a meager .198 batting average. While he still has the potential to do damage in any given at-bat, Suárez’s offensive consistency has dropped off significantly over the past two seasons, and the Reds began to curtail his playing time later in the year.

There’s a case for the Reds to look for an upgrade at third base, but that’d require pouring even more resources into a position where the club already has Suárez and Mike Moustakas on significant contracts. Moustakas will be looking for a bounceback season of his own after struggling to a career-worst .208/.282/.372 showing while being obviously hampered by a foot injury. It’s not an enviable position to be in, but the Reds seem likely to run things back with Suárez and Moustakas in hopes that at least one can regain some of his prior form. The front office certainly didn’t envision a Suárez/Moustakas platoon when signing those players to long-term deals, but that might be the best option for Bell to get production from that position moving forward.

The front office might also feel their work in the rotation is already done, particularly if they exercise Miley’s option. Luis Castillo rebounded from an awful first two months to post a characteristically strong second half. Sonny Gray had his third consecutive solid season after coming over from the Yankees during the 2018-19 offseason. Tyler Mahle is one of the better young pitchers around the league, and Miley’s coming off a very good season as mentioned.

The Reds could probably do better than Vladimir Gutierrez in the final spot, but top pitching prospects Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo are on the doorstep of the big leagues and could be factors themselves next year. Cincinnati might look to add a low-cost innings eating type at the back end — especially if Miley ends up elsewhere — but the core of a potential playoff rotation is already in place.

A trade involving Gray or Castillo can’t be completely ruled out, since the club reportedly fielded offers on both players last offseason. Gray will make just under $11MM next season, while Castillo is projected for a $7.6MM arbitration salary. Both pitchers are under team control through 2023.

Cincinnati is looking to compete immediately, making a Gray or Castillo deal still seem unlikely. Krall downplayed the importance of trade talks involving their top pitchers last winter, characterizing those discussions as a matter of due diligence. More conversations of that nature will surely take place in the coming months, but there’s no pressing need for the Reds to force a trade involving either player.

The biggest priority for the Reds this offseason — aside from retaining or replacing Castellanos — has to be revamping the bullpen. Reds’ relievers were among the worst in the league at preventing runs last season, largely due to walk and home run issues. There’s a strong case, in fact, that the bullpen was the biggest reason they missed the playoffs.

Even after adjusting for park effects, the Reds outhit the Cardinals in 2021. The two teams’ respective rotation ERA’s (4.01 for St. Louis, 4.03 for Cincinnati) were almost identical. The biggest separator between the Reds and the NL’s final playoff team was a gap of more than a full run in ERA (3.97 versus 4.99) from the relief corps.

Making matters worse, Cincinnati’s best reliever, Tejay Antone, will probably miss the entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in September. Michael Lorenzen is set to hit free agency, as is deadline pickup Mychal Givens. The Reds can take a broad approach to talent acquisition, scouring the waiver wire and non-tender markets for relievers they like. But it’d be a surprise if they didn’t also add at least one obvious upgrade to the late innings mix.

To their credit, Cincinnati already did some of the bullpen heavy lifting at the trade deadline, picking up Luis Cessa and Wilson from the Yankees. They’re both likely to return, joining Art Warren and Lucas Sims as the top internal options. That still leaves some high-leverage innings to be shouldered though.

Ironically enough, Iglesias is easily the top free agent reliever available. Signing him is likely to cost a hefty three-plus year salary and potentially a draft choice, should the Angels make him a qualifying offer. It’d be a shock to see the Reds meet that asking price just twelve months after trading him away. Instead, they’ll look at least a tier down.

Kendall Graveman and Kenley Jansen might still prove too pricey for the Reds’ liking. The third tier of relievers — which includes players like Corey Knebel, Héctor Neris and Jeurys Familia — could still offer some much-needed help. If Cincinnati looks for a southpaw to pair with Wilson, Aaron Loup, Andrew Chafin and old friend Brooks Raley should be available without coming at prohibitive costs. The Reds could look for creative ways to bring in a controllable reliever via trade as well, just as they did this summer with the Cessa pickup.

Bullpens are often highly volatile, and it’s not hard to envision the Reds constructing a passable relief corps by hitting on just one or two offseason additions. But that’ll require identifying a few key targets from a group of pitchers that (Iglesias and Graveman aside) all come with their own question marks. Krall and his staff have surely already begun to pore over the possibilities, but any bullpen restructuring requires both an adept talent acquisition process and some element of luck.

If Castellanos leaves, the front office will need to figure out how to replace most of his middle-of-the-order production at a lower cost. They might very well have to bank on a repeat of last season’s marvelous production from Votto and a bounceback from either of Suárez or Moustakas. And they’ll no doubt have to hit on an addition or two to the late innings to fix a bullpen that proved untenable in 2021.

None of that is impossible, and the Reds’ rotation and handful of high-end position players gives them a contending core around which to build. There’s not much margin for error for Krall and his group this winter, though, and a bad start to next season would intensify rumors about potential trades involving Gray, Castillo and Winker, each of whom has a dwindling window of remaining team control.

The Reds have a real chance to be competitive in 2022, but they’re also in some danger of never realizing the full potential of this central group of players. How well they handle the potential loss of Castellanos and their hit rate on bullpen upgrades this offseason might ultimately determine whether this group can ever make a deep postseason run.

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