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2021-22 Offseason Outlook

Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox

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With a burgeoning payroll, can the White Sox find a strong replacement for Carlos Rodon and upgrade at second base and/or right field?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Yasmani Grandal, C: $36.5MM through 2023
  • Dallas Keuchel, SP: $19.5MM through 2022.  Includes $20MM club option for 2023
  • Jose Abreu, 1B: $18MM through 2022
  • Craig Kimbrel, RP: $16MM through 2022
  • Liam Hendriks, RP: $42MM through 2024 (technically through ’23 but the option and buyout prices are the same)
  • Lance Lynn, SP: $38MM through 2023.  Includes $18MM club option for 2024
  • Tim Anderson, SS: $10.5MM through 2022.  Includes $12.5MM club option for ’23 and $14MM club option for ’24
  • Yoan Moncada, 3B: $59MM through 2024.  Includes $25MM club option for ’25
  • Kendall Graveman, RP: $24MM through 2024
  • Eloy Jimenez, LF: $32MM through 2024.  Includes $16.5MM club option for ’25 and $18.5MM club option for ’26
  • Luis Robert, CF: $45MM through 2025.  Includes $20MM club options for ’26 and ’27
  • Leury Garcia, IF: $16.5MM through 2024.
  • Aaron Bummer, RP: $13MM through 2024.  Includes $7.25MM club option for ’25 and $7.5MM club option for ’26

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Declined $6MM club option on 2B Cesar Hernandez
  • Exercised $16MM club option on RP Craig Kimbrel

Free Agents

The White Sox won the AL Central this year, marking back-to-back playoff appearances for the first time in the club’s storied 121-year history.  Prior to 2020, the team hadn’t even put together a winning record since 2012.  The White Sox are here to stay as a perennial contender, even if they went quietly to the Astros in the ALDS this year.  As you can see in the contracts section above, the team has already locked up core pieces and should have relatively strong continuity for the next several years.

Several significant moves and non-moves took place prior to the December 2nd lockout.  The White Sox made a pair of unsurprising option decisions, cutting second baseman Cesar Hernandez loose and retaining reliever Craig Kimbrel.  I wonder if the Kimbrel decision represents something of a sunk cost fallacy, with the Sox having surrendered former first rounder Nick Madrigal plus reliever Codi Heuer to acquire Kimbrel from the Cubs at the July deadline.  Who the White Sox gave up, of course, should have had no bearing on Kimbrel’s option decision.  The team only had 25 innings in which to evaluate Kimbrel, during which his extreme home run tendencies returned.

Since 2019, Kimbrel has been an effective pitcher for only the 36 2/3 innings at the beginning of the ’21 season.  But in those 39 games, Kimbrel was utterly dominant, allowing only two earned runs.  Even heading into his age-34 season, Kimbrel is undoubtedly one of the top strikeout relievers in the game, ranking third in that metric since 2020.  The question is whether home run and walk proclivities will be an issue in 2022, and I don’t think anyone really knows the answer.  The White Sox, who appear to be bumping up against their payroll limit, gambled $16MM that Good Kimbrel will show up over the next 60 innings or at least that they can unload him to positive effect.

White Sox GM Rick Hahn spoke openly about trading Kimbrel, saying, “We’ve had conversations with other clubs and have a sense of what is potentially available.”  Hahn added, “It’s easy to make the assessment that if you put him back in the closer’s role, it’s what he’s accustomed to and he’s more likely to have success.”  That’s not a particularly reliable assessment: put Kimbrel back in a closer role, and he’ll be good again.

The White Sox struck a pre-lockout deal with one of the top free agent relivers in Kendall Graveman, seemingly only increasing the chances of a Kimbrel trade.  Possible matches for Kimbrel could include the Tigers and Royals, but intra-division trades among contenders can be tough.  The Rangers, Blue Jays, Marlins, and Phillies make some theoretical sense, but it will not be easy for Hahn to find a team willing to take on a $16MM closer and give up a player of value.  Hahn has gambled that whatever he gets back will be better than just paying the $1MM buyout on Kimbrel and spending the money in free agency.

The White Sox also made the curious choice not to issue the one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer to Carlos Rodon.  Rodon was a surprise Cy Young contender through mid-July, but wore down thereafter and experienced a velocity dip.  Soon after the Rodon decision, Noah Syndergaard, with two innings under his belt from 2020-21, snagged a one-year, $21MM deal from the Angels.  Hahn offered little insight into the team’s decision, saying, “We made the assessment based on everything we know, which includes our needs and our other targets, that that wasn’t an offer we were comfortable making at this time.”

The implication is that the White Sox felt that A) there was a real chance of Rodon accepting the QO and B) that would have been a bad thing for the team.  On both fronts, the team has more information than we do.  We don’t know exactly how Scott Boras played it and if maybe he bluffed his way out of the QO by intimating they might accept.  Afterward, of course, Boras acted as if there was never a chance Rodon would accept.  Additionally, no one knows Rodon’s health better than the White Sox.  Health concerns are one potential justification for not offering the QO to Rodon.  If the club thought Rodon is likely to provide even 100 innings of 3.50 ball in 2022, the QO is an easy yes.

There’s also the chance that the White Sox budgeted $20MM+ for a potential frontline starter, and they wanted to keep their options open and attempt to acquire someone they feel is better than Rodon.  Case in point Justin Verlander, in whom the Sox “showed strong interest” prior to his re-upping with the Astros, according to Bob Nightengale.  The White Sox already have a projected rotation of Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease, Dallas Keuchel, and Michael Kopech.  Allowing that they could attempt to dump Keuchel’s salary, there’s generally room for only one addition.  Save for perhaps Clayton Kershaw, who’s unlikely to sign in Chicago, free agency doesn’t offer anyone of Rodon’s caliber.  The post-lockout trade market, however, could be robust.  If Hahn were to come up with, say, Frankie Montas, the Rodon decision would look reasonable.

Second base remains a clear area of need for the White Sox.  Nick Madrigal is now across town, and the club declined Cesar Hernandez’s option after he posted a 70 wRC+ for them.  The White Sox have Leury Garcia back in the fold as a fallback, but they could consider acquiring Jean Segura, Ketel Marte, Josh Harrison, DJ LeMahieu, Jeff McNeil, or Jed Lowrie.  Also consider the summer report that the White Sox were interested in acquiring Trevor Story and playing him at second base back in July.  If multiyear offers are not to Story’s liking, he could land in Chicago on a one-year deal and attempt to pull a Marcus Semien.  I don’t think a Semien reunion was ever a consideration for the White Sox, but they have seen a few more affordable second base options come off the board in Chris Taylor and Eduardo Escobar.

Since the White Sox non-tendered Avisail Garcia three years ago, they’ve been searching for a solution in right field.  In the three years that followed, Ryan Cordell, Nomar Mazara, and Adam Eaton were their innings leaders at the position.  Aside from Leury Garcia, the club has solid internal options for ’22 in Andrew Vaughn, Gavin Sheets, and Adam Engel.  Vaughn, the most promising hitter of the bunch, spent most of ’21 filling in at the other outfield corner with Eloy Jimenez out.  The club is not in desperation mode here, but they figure to monitor the market.  What the White Sox do with right field might depend on the caliber of player they add for the rotation and second base.  Available right field-capable players could include Kris Bryant, Nick Castellanos, Michael Conforto, Wil Myers, Max Kepler, Cody Bellinger, Joey Gallo, Jorge Soler, Andrew McCutchen, and Manuel Margot, though not all of those would be upgrades over internal options.

Along with all these permutations, the team’s payroll must be considered.  The White Sox’ 2021 Opening Day payroll of $128.7MM was an all-time high, just a hair above where they peaked a decade prior.  The team currently has 13 players under contract for 2022 at a total of $152.75MM, plus a projected $12.9MM for their arbitration eligible trio.  That brings the total to around $165MM for 15 players, with an MLB-wide expected minimum salary increase on the way.  It’s unclear how far owner Jerry Reinsdorf is willing to go and how much of Kimbrel and perhaps Keuchel’s salary can be cleared.  Abreu, Keuchel, and Kimbrel are off the books after ’22, though the club figures to attempt to extend Abreu.  Plus, the club has scheduled or expected raises to Moncada, Anderson, Giolito, Robert, Jimenez, and Bummer in ’23.

Rodon was the top White Sox pitcher by WAR in 2021 in just 132 2/3 innings, so replacing his production will not be easy.  Though the team’s four division-mates didn’t put up much of a fight in ’21, the Tigers have already made major additions.  All five clubs now fancy themselves contenders.  While the White Sox are still the AL Central favorite currently, there’s work to be done once the lockout ends.

Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks

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2021 was a Murphy’s law season for the Diamondbacks, who entered the year expecting to at least hang around in the Wild Card race. Instead, they dealt with myriad injuries, saw some typically reliable veterans take steps back, and had perhaps the game’s worst bullpen. The result: a 52-110 record that calls the franchise’s entire direction into question.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Madison Bumgarner, LHP: $60MM through 2024 ($10MM between 2022-23 deferred until after the contract’s expiration)
  • Nick Ahmed, SS: $18.25MM through 2023
  • Mark Melancon, RHP: $14MM through 2023 (including $2MM buyout on $5MM mutual option for 2024)
  • Ketel Marte, 2B: $9.4MM through 2022 (including $1MM buyout on $10MM club option for 2023; contract also contains $12MM club option for 2024)
  • David Peralta, LF: $7.5MM through 2022
  • Merrill Kelly, RHP: $5.25MM through 2022

Total 2022 commitments: $58.025MM

Projected Salaries for Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Unlike a few other teams near the bottom of the standings, the Diamondbacks have not been rebuilding. Arizona went 85-77 with a +70 run differential in 2019. That winter, they signed Kole Calhoun and brought back most of the position player core. They stumbled to a 25-35 finish in 2020, but it was fair to largely write that off as an anomalous down season in a shortened schedule.

That’s no longer the case, as they’re coming off an NL-worst showing over a full season. Some of that can be attributed to tough injury luck, particularly in a starting rotation that lost all four of its top members for a month or more at some point during the year. Yet even pristine health wouldn’t have had the D-Backs anywhere near the Giants and Dodgers at the top of the NL West, leaving the front office with plenty of questions about how to get back to where they were a couple years ago.

That won’t take the form of a leadership change, at least not at the top. The club signed manager Torey Lovullo to a one-year extension in September, locking him in for a sixth season at the helm. They did overhaul Lovullo’s coaching staff, including the hiring of highly respected pitching coach Brent Strom. But it’ll be Lovullo leading the clubhouse for the franchise’s hopeful turnaround.

Based on the comments of the team’s top executives and their early-offseason actions, it doesn’t seem that’ll take the form of a massive rebuild. General manager Mike Hazen pushed back against the notion of a teardown numerous times during the year, and he largely reiterated that stance after the season. “This isn’t a situation, for me, where we are relying on a series of top-five draft picks to get us back into a position where we should be,” he told reporters in October. “That’s my opinion.”

Hazen’s top lieutenant, assistant GM Amiel Sawdaye, largely echoed that sentiment at last month’s GM Meetings. “We go into every season with the idea that we want to put the best possible team out there that’s going to go out and compete,” Sawdaye said. “I don’t think we ever wave the white flag and say, ‘Well, we’re going to give up on ’22.”

Both Hazen and Sawdaye suggested the D-Backs would remain open to trade offers on long-term players, but neither exec sounded enamored with that possibility. Arizona held onto players like Ketel Marte, Carson Kelly and Josh Rojas at the trade deadline, a time when Hazen expressed a desire to anchor the club’s next competitive window around a few marquee contributors.

There’ll surely be robust interest in all those players, as well as in staff ace Zac Gallen. The Marlins, for instance, have already been tied to Marte this winter. Yet there’s also no urgency for the D-Backs to pull the trigger on a deal unless they’re completely overwhelmed with a prospect package or leaning into a full rebuild. The latter option doesn’t seem to be on the table, so teams will need to bowl Arizona over to land anyone from that group, each of whom is controllable for at least three more seasons (barring changes to the service time structure in the next CBA).

It seems likely the Diamondbacks will keep their young core intact heading into 2022, but trades of veteran role players remain a possibility. The Snakes may not want to punt next season entirely, but it’s also clear they’re facing an uphill battle competing in a division with two of baseball’s top teams and a third (the Padres) with one of the more star-studded rosters in the league. So a moderate sell-off with an eye towards 2023 and beyond figures to be the middle ground in which they settle.

Starter Merrill Kelly and left fielder David Peralta are both entering the final seasons of their contracts. Kelly, who’ll make an affordable $5.25MM, should be of particular interest to more immediate contenders. The right-hander owns a 4.27 ERA in 372 2/3 innings over the past three seasons. He has below-average swing-and-miss and strikeout numbers, but Kelly’s an adept strike-thrower who does a decent job keeping the ball on the ground. He’s a source of affordable, league average innings that could bolster a contending club’s starting staff. It’d be a surprise if Kelly weren’t traded at some point — either this offseason or at next summer’s deadline.

Interest in Peralta figures to be more muted. His $7.5MM salary isn’t onerous, but the 34-year-old is coming off a modest .259/.325/.402 showing. Peralta has mixed in a couple excellent seasons in his career, but he’s typically offered league average hitting and solid but unspectacular defense in left field. Teams like the White Sox and Phillies could consider him as a lefty-hitting corner outfield option, but it’s unlikely the D-Backs would recoup much more than a fringe prospect and/or salary relief in any deal. At that point, it may be better to hang onto the longtime member of the organization as a veteran presence for a fairly young locker room.

There aren’t a ton of other obvious trade candidates on the roster. The D-Backs would surely welcome the opportunity to get much of the $60MM remaining on the Madison Bumgarner contract off the books, but it’s hard to see another club having interest in such an arrangement. Bumgarner has struggled mightily with home runs as his velocity has dipped in the desert, making his five-year deal from the 2019-20 offseason look like a major misstep.

First baseman Christian Walker and shortstop Nick Ahmed are each coming off seasons valued at marginally above replacement level. Ahmed, who’s one of the game’s top defensive infielders, could draw some interest from shortstop-needy clubs looking for a stopgap veteran at the position. (The Yankees, Astros and Angels could all fit that bill). With a salary that guarantees him a bit more than $18MM over the next two seasons, though, it seems likely the D-Backs would have to pay some money to facilitate a trade for a marginal prospect return. As with Peralta, it probably makes more sense for Arizona to hold onto Ahmed into the season.

Perhaps aside from a Merrill Kelly trade, there may not be many traditional “seller” moves by the Diamondbacks this winter. In fact, they’ve already made one meaningful move in the opposite direction. Arizona inked veteran closer Mark Melancon to a two-year deal just before the lockout, and he’ll immediately step in as the veteran anchor of a young relief corps. Melancon doesn’t have big velocity or swing-and-miss numbers, but he’s a solid strike-thrower who continues to post impressive ground-ball and soft contact rates.

Further upgrades could be on the horizon, as Arizona is only bringing back one reliever (swingman Caleb Smith) who logged at least 20+ innings with above-average strikeout and walk numbers this past season. The Snakes have reportedly poked around the market for veteran middle relievers Hunter Strickland and Bryan Shaw and could circle back to them or others of that ilk. Those wouldn’t be world-beating signings, but they’d be affordable and perhaps raise the floor in the middle innings.

Arizona has also reportedly expressed some interest in Wily Peralta, and a swing option could indeed make some sense. The D-Backs’ rotation is one of the thinner groups around the league. Gallen’s a quality young arm, and he’s likely to return at the top of the rotation. Bumgarner will get another opportunity, and Kelly would have a spot if he’s not moved.

Luke Weaver looks likely to claim a spot in the back-end. A former highly-regarded prospect, Weaver has been up-and-down over the past couple seasons in Phoenix. He generally posts solid enough strikeout and walk numbers to compensate for home run issues, and the D-Backs don’t have enough in-house alternatives to bump Weaver out of the starting staff at the moment.

The fifth spot (or final two spots if Kelly is traded) looks completely up for grabs. Tyler Gilbert, who warmed plenty of hearts by tossing a no-hitter in his first career start, might be the favorite after posting a 3.47 ERA as a rookie. His peripherals didn’t support that run prevention number, though, and Gilbert’s not long removed from being a minor league Rule 5 draftee. Awesome as his no-hitter was, he’s probably better suited as a depth option than a rotation cog. Taylor Widener, Humberto Castellanos and Humberto Mejia are among the other arms who could be in the mix, but none of that trio was particularly impressive in 2021. Smith could factor in as well but is probably better suited for relief.

The free agent rotation market has been largely picked through already, but Arizona could offer some innings to potential reclamation candidates. Vince Velasquez, Chad Kuhl and Zach Davies are among the speculative possibilities available for that kind of dart throw. Each is coming off a poor enough season they won’t be costly, but they’ve all found some level of success in years past.

Pitching figures to be the priority, coming off a season in which Arizona had the league’s second-worst ERA and third-worst SIERA. There’s room for some upgrades on the position player side, with Hazen and Sawdaye each highlighting third base in recent weeks as a target area. Arizona’s not going to pursue Kris Bryant, and a run at 34-year-old Kyle Seager probably isn’t in the cards for a team in the D-Backs’ uncertain competitive position.

Aside from perhaps Jonathan Villar, free agency doesn’t offer much else in the way of regulars there. While the D-Backs could theoretically poke around the trade market in search of a controllable option at the hot corner, they’re not especially likely to surrender prospects from the top couple tiers of the farm system. Perhaps there’s a creative swap to be had for a young infielder in an organization with more high-level depth. Taylor Walls of the Rays, J.D. Davis of the Mets and Ha-Seong Kim of the Padres are among potential trade targets of varying cost and windows of remaining control.

It’s also possible the D-Backs are left to run things back with their in-house options. Ahmed, if not moved, will be back at shortstop, with prospect Geraldo Perdomo a potential midseason candidate if he plays well at Triple-A. Marte seems likely to move back to second base full-time after rating poorly in center field. Ideally, Rojas would probably bounce around the diamond regularly, but he’s the likeliest option to assume the lion’s share of time at third base if the team doesn’t upgrade externally.

The D-Backs could look into the possibility of replacing Walker at first base. That’s particularly true if the designated hitter comes to the National League, with youngster Seth Beer likely assuming that role and leaving Walker as the primary first baseman. Despite his down season, the D-Backs tendered Walker an arbitration contract at a projected $2.7MM salary. His presence probably won’t foreclose the possibility of an upgrade — arbitration contracts aren’t fully guaranteed until Opening Day, so they could still move on at little financial cost — but that suggests the front office isn’t completely determined to cut bait with Walker either.

Kelly is the obvious #1 option behind the plate. He wasn’t right after returning from a June wrist fracture, but the 27-year-old had been off to an All-Star caliber start to the season. The D-Backs can only hope an offseason of rest will allow him to regain his pre-injury form. If that happens, Kelly could be one of the best two-way backstops around the league. They’ll probably acquire a veteran complement via low-cost free agency or waivers, since Jose Herrera — who has never appeared in the majors — is the only other primary catcher on the club’s 40-man roster.

That tabulation doesn’t include Daulton Varsho, who offers one of the more unconventional defensive profiles around. The 25-year-old started 37 games behind the dish and 36 games in the outfield in 2021, with more than half of his outfield outings coming in center field. There’s little precedent for a catcher with Varsho’s level of athleticism, but it’s also unclear for how long he’ll stick behind the plate. Scouting reports have raised questions about both his glove and arm strength in the past, and Kelly’s presence could regulate Varsho to predominant outfield work.

That’s particularly true in light of Hazen’s late-season comments on the team’s defensive approach. The front office head suggested to reporters in September that the club may have had too many moving parts. “I think we’ve pushed that [moving players around the diamond] to the limit and I think you’ve seen the dam break a little bit this year,” Hazen said at the time. “I do think we have to start honing in on who is going to thrive in that setting and who would be better off locking down one spot.  Those are going to be part of the conversations we’ll be having.”

That could mean regular outfield reps for Varsho, who hit at a league average level during his first extended MLB run in 2021. He might be stretched a bit in center field, but the 2017 draftee looks like an above-average corner defender at the very least. He’ll join Peralta, Pavin Smith and Jake McCarthy as lefty-hitting outfield options, while they’re bringing back Stuart Fairchild and already traded for Jordan Luplow to add some help from the right side.

There’s not a ton of certainty in that mix, but there’s enough youth and promise that the D-Backs will probably deal with some growing pains to evaluate their internal group. Perhaps they’ll look into low base or non-roster deals involving a strong defensive center fielder, with Billy Hamilton and old friend Ender Inciarte among the players in that mold. But there’s unlikely to be a huge move on the grass over the coming months.

Generally speaking, that seems true for much of the franchise. In spite of the highly disappointing past couple seasons, the Diamondbacks don’t seem destined for an organizational restructuring. That’s a defensible course of action. The D-Backs already have the kind of young core, particularly on the position player side, with which teams are hoping to come out of a rebuild.  They already possess one of the game’s better farm systems, and they’ll add another blue chip prospect with the second pick in next year’s draft. There’s no guarantee the organization would come out of a rebuild more definitively stronger in 2024 or 2025 than they are right now.

Yet they’re also in danger of falling into an undesirable gray area, particularly within the NL West. They’re far worse than the three teams at the top of the division, leaving no clear path to contention in 2022. There’s certainly room to go up, and the D-Backs aren’t likely as bad next season as they were this year. Whether this roster’s capable of improving enough to avert the overhaul to which organizational leadership seems so opposed remains to be seen.

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

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Bryce Harper gave the Phillies exactly the type of season they hoped for when they signed him to the team’s first $300MM+ deal. Unfortunately, he couldn’t pitch the ninth inning (or the eighth inning), and the Phillies fell short of true contention yet again.

Guaranteed Contract

  • Bryce Harper, OF: $263MM through 2031
  • Zack Wheeler, RHP: $74MM through 2024
  • J.T. Realmuto, C: $95.5MM through 2025
  • Jean Segura, 2B:$15.485MM through 2022 (includes $1MM buyout of $17MM club option for 2023)
  • Didi Gregorius, SS: $15.25MM in 2022
  • Aaron Nola, RHP: $19.75MM in 2022 (includes $4.25MM buyout of $16MM club option for 2023)
  • Kyle Gibson, RHP: $7.6MM in 2022
  • Scott Kingery, IF/OF: $15.5MM through 2023 (includes $1MM buyout of $13MM team option for 2024)
  • 2022 commitments: $130.7MM
  • Total long-term commitments: $506MM

Projected Salaries For Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Free Agents

The Phillies did it: they finished with a better than .500 record. The Bryce Harper era began on the heels of an 80-82 season in 2018, but before the ink was dry, a new era was supposed to have begun in Philadelphia. In the third season of the Harper era, the Phillies finally reversed that record, finished 82-80 and in second place, their first winning season since 2011. It only took three years and an MVP season out of Harper to get them there.

And while it’s nice to be a winning team – well-deserving of a pat on the back – the Phillies fell short of true contention. Instead, Harper watched from home as a division rival won the World Series for the second time in the three years. That has to smart.

Still, there’s no revelation coming to Philadelphia. In terms of strategy, it’s likely to be the same game script for the Phillies moving forward, though they’ll shuffle the cards and hope for a different result. President of Baseball Ops Dave Dombrowski is a fairly well-known commodity throughout the league, so if there’s a wrinkle coming in Philly’s team-building strategy, it might have to come from GM Sam Fuld.

The former outfielder has been with the Phillies for years, but his ascension to Dombrowski’s top lieutenant is less than a year old. As Grima Wormtongue to Dombrowski’s King Théoden, Fuld’s analytical approach should have taken root by now, but the organizational philosophy still seems relatively straight-forward: acquire players to help this team win today.

Looking back to Philly’s deadline moves, dealing five years of control over former top prospect Spencer Howard for a year and a half of Kyle Gibson is an old-school deadline add, though the inclusion of 23-year-old Hans Crouse hints at more nuanced thinking. That said, Crouse made two starts in the Majors after his arrival, so the Phils clearly see him as an option for innings in 2022.

The focus of the front office is putting a winning team on the field ASAP, and in this way, the Phillies are a breath of fresh air in an era popularized by “cute” front offices, constantly balancing short-term value with long-term flexibility. The Phillies may seem to be working with blunter instruments at times, but what sets the apart as an organization right now is that they don’t mind if everyone knows how badly they want to win.

In the dugout, there aren’t nearly as many tea leaves to read. Manager Joe Girardi needs to win baseball games. With whatever 26-and-40-man roster he has at his disposal come opening day, he needs to win games.

Since Charlie Manuel’s departure midway through the 2013 season, managers haven’t stayed overlong in Philadelphia. Each of Ryne Sandberg (278 games, .428 W-L%), Pete Mackanin (412 games, .422 W-L%), or newly-crowned NL Manager of the Year Gabe Kapler (324 games, .497 W-L%) lost their caps in relatively short order. Girardi (222 games, .495 W-L%) may be nearing a tipping point as well.

Girardi isn’t all that close to eclipsing his predecessors’ raw totals in terms of games managed, but if Girardi can make it through 2022, he’ll be the first to last three full seasons since Manuel. Getting sacked before the end of next season is hardly a fait accompli for Girardi, though his disappointing tenure has coincided with a green-lit era of full-go contention for the front office. Needless to say, expectations are high. Don’t be surprised to see Girardi as a high draft pick in your office’s first manager fired pool.

So what do Dombrowski and Fuld need to put Girardi in position to keep his job? The roster is tough to analyze, because in some regards, 2021 went exactly as planned. Harper won his second MVP award after slashing .309/.429/.615 with a league-leading 42 doubles, 35 home runs, 101 runs scored, and a robust 170 wRC+. Zack Wheeler led the Majors with 213 1/3 innings pitched, he was second among hurlers with 7.3 fWAR, and his 2.78 ERA/2.59 FIP were among the best marks in the game. He faced more batters than any other pitcher in the NL, and he struck out more of them (247) than any other pitcher in the NL. He finished second in voting for NL Cy Young.

If baseball were a two-man game, the Phillies might be the champs. Unfortunately, Harper and Wheeler’s outlandish success in 2021 is as much a cause for skepticism as it is optimism. After all, even with those stellar campaigns, the Phillies barely broke an even record. Harper and Wheeler should continue to be good, but it’s not fair to expect MVP and Cy Young seasons every year. That said, the duo forms a pretty solid foundation.

You can add J.T. Realmuto and Aaron Nola to that solid core. Nola tossed 180 innings, and though his bottom-line run-prevention numbers were sub-optimal (4.63 ERA), his 3.37 FIP, 29.8 percent strikeout rate, and 5.2 percent walk rate fall in line with career expectations and suggest Nola continues to be a solid front-of-the-rotation arm.

In the first year of his new five-year contract, Realmuto posted 3.5 rWAR and played his role as Harper’s running mate to perfection. He was a little nicked-up down the stretch, forcing a tad more playing time for Andrew Knapp and Rafael Marchan, but he still managed to play in 134 games and step to the plate 537 times. The catchers’ room already looks a little different with Garrett Stubbs and Donny Sands joining Realmuto and Marchan, but the bottom line here is that so long as Realmuto stays healthy, the Phillies ought to be a top-10 team in cacher fWAR again (they were 8th by fWAR in 2021).

At the risk of turning this into a bit of a ho-down, let’s keep two-stepping through the roster, where Rhys Hoskins and Kyle Gibson appear next. Hoskins and Gibson aren’t nearly the talents of the names above, but they ought to be solid contributors to a contending team.

Hoskins’ footspeed and defensive ability make him a limited player, but if he’s healthy, his bat belongs in the middle of the order. He is a career 122 wRC+ bat coming off a .247/.334/.530 batting line across 443 plate appearances. His peripherals are remarkably steady, even if his walk rate did fall a touch to a career-low 10.6% in 2021. Hoskins should plan to inch that number even a tad closer to his 14.3% career walk rate and let his power do the rest. As a designated hitter, he’s a grand option, but even wearing his first baseman’s glove, Hoskins figured to continue to be a 2-2.5 fWAR player. In brief, there’s nothing wrong with Hoskins’ roster spot.

If Hoskins is a bronze level bat, then Gibson is more-or-less the rotation equivalent. Where Hoskins brings power to the plate, Gibson’s value proposition is an uncanny ability to keep the ball on the ground. His 51.7% groundball rate in 2021 was right near his career average of 51.5% – well above the 41.2% league average mark. Keeping the ball on the ground helps Gibson keep the ball in the yard, which Gibson accomplished at rates he hadn’t hit since his late-twenties (0.84 HR/9, 11.1% HR/FB). Gibson’s 3.0 fWAR was the best mark of his career, and his 3.71 ERA/3.87 FIP were close.

Beyond worm killing, Gibson’s calling card has been his reliability. A starter that takes the ball every five turns will start about 20% of his team’s games, and Gibson’s never started less than 15% of his. He’s a textbook first division number four starter, even entering his age-34 season.

One problem in team-building, of course, is asking players to move up a rung. If Gibson is your best starter, as he was with the Rangers last year, that’s not going to be a very good team. And if he’s your number three, as he was with the Phillies, that’s probably an average-ish team. That’s a simplistic take, as there are many ways to build a winning club, but the point here is a broader one about the depth of recent Phillies’ ballclubs: they don’t have it, and they need it. The six players above get a lot of guff for this Philly club, but they aren’t the problem. If anything, reliance on this sextet is the problem.

Bottom line, the Phillies have holes to fill, and they don’t have the talent pipeline to do so internally. So where to begin? The obvious place is the bullpen, which was a disaster: 27th with 1.1 fWAR, 25th with a 4.60 ERA, 27th with a 4.61 FIP, 21st with 36 saves, and of course, ripped from the headlines, tied with the Nats for the most blown saves in the game with 34. The bullpen was bad. Or rather, the bullpen pitched poorly. But bullpens are fickle, and they’re easier to turn around year-to-year than any other aspect of a roster.

So let’s start with fixing the offense, which should be a more urgent priority for Dombrowski. They need a centerfielder, and after declining McCutchen’s option, they need a left fielder as well. They could, conceivably, take the field on opening day with Alec Bohm and Didi Gregorius on the left side of the infield, but based on their 2021 production alone – ignoring their prospect pedigree and contract, respectively – both should be replaced. That’s half of the starting lineup that could use an upgrade. And yet, the Phillies remained one of the most inactive teams in the game prior to the roster freeze.

Centerfield remains the biggest hole on the Philadelphia roster, no less so after declining their option on Odubel Herrera, who led the team with 104 games in center last year. Herrera rebounded from his long layoff relatively well, posting 1.8 rWAR/1.1 fWAR in 492 plate appearances. He walks at a below-average rate (5.9%) and he puts the ball in play more often than most (15.9% strikeout rate), but that contact had little pop behind it in 2021 as Herrera managed just a .156 ISO. He didn’t embarrass himself out there, but he didn’t add much value for a Philly squad that needs bit of production it can get.

They need to turn centerfield into a better-than average spot, and there aren’t a plethora of options available. Mickey Moniak and Adam Haseley would be penciled in as the starters in center and left, respectively, though the Phils probably want both coming off the bench in 2022. ’

That means scouring the market, where there aren’t lot of true centerfielders available. Starling Marte would be option A in free agency, had he not signed with the rival Mets, and Byron Buxton is the highest-ceiling potential trade target, had he not signed an extension with the Twins. They might check in with Oakland about their available position players, whether that be Ramon Laureano for center or Matt Chapman for third.

As for the bullpen, it already looks a little different than at the end of last season. Hector Neris signed a two-year deal with the Astros, while Corey Knebel has joined the Phillies on a one-year deal. Knebel will be a closing option for Girardi. Jose Alvarado from the left side should also get plenty of high leverage opportunities. They claimed southpaw Ryan Sherriff off waivers from the Rays as well. Sherriff has been seen spotty action for the Cardinals and Rays, but he’s never spent a full season on the Major League roster.

The Phillies have a lot of work to do. They signed Johan Camargo just before the lockout, and while Camargo adds valuable versatility, he hasn’t been productive at the plate since 2018. He can be a part of the bench, but he’s not a solution for the left side of the infield. Nor does he solve the problems in the outfield. Nor will he close games. At this stage, however, it’s important to remember that the addition of Camargo and Knebel represent the beginning of the Phillies’ offseason, not the end of it.

Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Guardians

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A new name represents a new era in Cleveland baseball, and the club will look to mark their inaugural season as the Guardians with a return to playoff contention.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Jose Ramirez, 3B: $12MM for 2022 (salary guaranteed after Guardians exercised club option; Guardians also have $13MM club option for 2023)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Free Agents

After eight consecutive winning seasons, the Guardians finally dropped under the .500 mark with an 80-82 record in 2021.  With the lineup still producing runs at an inconsistent rate, Cleveland couldn’t make up the difference thanks to some injury absences in their rotation.  Simply getting Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, and Zach Plesac healthy and productive for all of 2022 will likely do more to boost the team’s chances than almost anything they could do on the transaction front, though the Guardians now face an interesting set of decisions this offseason.

Or, maybe, it just boils down to one over-arching decision — how much are the Guardians willing to spend?  Jose Ramirez represents the lone guaranteed contract on the books, and the arbitration class projects to earn $23.5MM and even that total could be reduced by a non-tender or two.  Between that group and the pre-arbitration players on the rosters, Roster Resource estimates roughly a $49.2MM payroll for the Guardians next season, which is well below the $124MM spent in 2019.  A return to the (comparatively) big expenditures of 2017-18 may not happen until a new minority owner is found, though both team chairman/CEO Paul Dolan and president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti have said the Guardians will have a larger payroll to work with in 2022.

Even if spending rises to just around the $100MM mark, that gives Antonetti’s front office some real leverage in building around a strong core.  Ramirez is one of the game’s best players, Franmil Reyes boasts tremendous power, Emmanuel Clase emerged as a strong closer, Amed Rosario and Myles Straw look like quality everyday regulars, and the rotation is one of baseball’s best when healthy.  If anything, Cleveland’s rotation might even be deeper than usual — Cal Quantrill and Triston McKenzie each had some quality outings while filling in for the injured starters in 2021, so either or both could build on this experience to take another step forward as the fourth and fifth starters.

Cleveland usually doesn’t spend much on its rotation due to the team’s knack for developing homegrown arms, though in the wake of 2021’s injuries, investing on a low-cost veteran might not be a bad idea.  Eli Morgan and Logan Allen are already on hand as more starting depth, but a Wade LeBlanc-esque swingman type could also work, as that pitcher could then also help out a bullpen that will need to cover some innings.

Bryan Shaw, Blake Parker, and Nick Wittgren are all headed for free agency, representing 183 1/3 frames of work out of last year’s pen.  As with the starters, the Guardians aren’t prone to making any big outlays for relief pitching, so it’s probable to expect some minor league signings competing with the team’s in-house pitchers come Spring Training.  It also isn’t out of the question that the Guardians could target a younger and more promising relief candidate as part of trade talks with other clubs, a la how they landed Clase from the Rangers as part of the 2019 Corey Kluber deal.

Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger, and Carlos Carrasco have all been traded over the last few years, so it can’t be ruled out that the Guardians could look to deal another starter in exchange for a top-tier younger bat.  However, the circumstances are a little different now, as while those past starters were all becoming increasingly expensive, Cleveland’s current rotation group is still pretty affordable.  Bieber and Quantrill are the only ones who have even reached arbitration eligibility, and Bieber is projected for a $4.8MM salary in his first trip through the arb process.  This is significantly below what Bieber would have earned if he’d been able to follow up his 2020 Cy Young Award-winning campaign with a similar season, so his injury-plagued year cost him both on the field and in the pocketbook.

In the wake of such a year, could Bieber perhaps be more open to a contract extension?  The ace right-hander turned down the Guardians’ offers last spring, but there would seem to be room for a deal considering how the team has no official money committed for the 2023 season and beyond.  If not Bieber, expect the Guardians to look into extensions for any of Civale, Plesac, Quantrill, or McKenzie, given how the organization has long prioritized locking up talent earlier in their careers.

Since Bieber is under control for three more years at arbitration-controlled prices, he isn’t the star whose future has drawn the most speculation.  Ramirez is under team control for only two more seasons (2023 via another club option) and is already making a significant salary, even if $12MM is a bargain for the third baseman’s outstanding production.  2024 will be Ramirez’s age-31 season, so even if the Guardians are open to a splurge on what would easily be the biggest contract in franchise history, the question remains if they would take that plunge for Ramirez specifically, even if he isn’t showing any signs of decline.

Extensions talks with Ramirez have yet to yield any progress, and any number of teams are ready and willing to step up with huge trade offers if Cleveland did decide to move their superstar.  Like with the starters, however, the timing doesn’t seem quite right for a Ramirez trade, since his contract isn’t prohibitive and the Guardians are planning to contend next year.  Barring a ridiculous trade offer that was too good to ignore, the Guardians are more likely to deal Ramirez next winter, if they end up dealing him at all.

With this in mind, expect Ramirez to return as the linchpin of a Cleveland lineup that underwhelmed in 2021, and was no-hit on three (or, unofficially, four) separate occasions.  Despite the lack of overall punch, some interesting pieces are already in place — Ramirez is set at third base, Reyes will mostly serve as the DH and play some corner outfield, Straw will be the everyday center fielder, Bobby Bradley is slated for at least a share of first base duties, and Rosario will play somewhere, provisionally at shortstop for now.

We’ll begin with the unsettled middle infield, as Rosario might end up as the regular shortstop, or be used in a super-utility role that would see him also get time in the outfield or as part of the crowded second base mix.  Rosario’s future at shortstop may hinge on how quickly prospect Gabriel Arias is able to develop his bat to match his already-excellent defense, and Arias took a nice step forward by hitting .284/.348/.454 with 13 home runs over 483 plate appearances at Triple-A last season.  If Arias still needs more seasoning, Andres Gimenez could also get more shortstop time if he hits as he did during his 2020 rookie season with the Mets, as opposed to his disappointing numbers with Cleveland last year.

Gimenez joins Owen Miller, Yu Chang, and Ernie Clement in the second base mix, with some type of platoon likely (Gimenez is a left-handed hitter, and the others are righty bats).  Top prospect Tyler Freeman will make his Triple-A debut in 2022, so he is expected to factor into the big league roster sometime closer to the end of the season.  There is enough volume at the position that a veteran offseason addition probably isn’t likely, since the Guardians will use Spring Training and the season itself to see what they have with this collection of players, with Freeman tentatively penciled in as their second baseman of the future.

While adding a regular middle infielder may not be feasible, adding a regular to the middle infield group could be more of a fit.  Chris Taylor would be a nice addition to just about any team’s roster, but he might fit particularly well onto a Guardians team looking for stability in the middle infield and at both corner outfield slots.  If Taylor is too expensive, a veteran utility type like Josh Harrison or Leury Garcia could provide some of the same versatility (if much less of a hitting ceiling) at a far lower price.

Since Cleveland’s biggest-ever free agent signing is still Edwin Encarnacion’s three-year, $60MM pact from the 2016-17 offseason, it remains to be seen if the Guardians are willing to spend to the level necessary to land a notable free agent even in the second tier of this year’s market.  Looking at some potential outfielders who could be on the Guardians’ radar, Taylor (projected for four years and $64MM), Kyle Schwarber (four years/$70MM), and Seiya Suzuki (five years/$55MM) would all likely require contracts that might be out of the team’s comfort zone.  Avisail Garcia, Mark Canha, or perhaps even Michael Conforto could be more viable options, though signing Conforto would require Cleveland to surrender a draft pick via the qualifying offer.

Again, the lack of future money on the books could make the Guardians more willing to stretch the budget to include a premium bat.  The Encarnacion signing came about due to something of a perfect storm of circumstances — there wasn’t a ton of interest in Encarnacion’s market, and Cleveland felt the time was right for a big strike having just lost a heartbreaker of a World Series in 2016.  Coming off a rare losing season, and with some financial flexibility, and with the wholly unique environment of debuting a new team name, Cleveland could again see the winter as a unique opportunity to land a big name.

Conversely, spending on multiple needs is a viable and maybe more realistic strategy than acquiring only one high-priced player.  Landing two starting corner outfielders, for instance, would perhaps be the swiftest way of solving an outfield depth problem that has plagued Cleveland for years.  Straw does represent one box checked, as the trade deadline acquisition offers on-base ability, speed, and a solid glove that should play well as the Guardians’ center fielder.

As for the other members of the 2021 outfield, it seems like the Guardians are trending towards more or less cleaning house.  Daniel Johnson has already been designated for assignment, while Bradley Zimmer is a non-tender candidate and Oscar Mercado is also no guarantee for the Opening Day roster.  Assuming at least one more full-time outfielder is acquired to join Straw in the everyday lineup, Cleveland can still potentially fill the rest of the outfield depth from within.  Factors to consider include Rosario’s utility value, how much time Reyes might see outside of the DH spot, prospect Nolan Jones’ development as an outfielder, and Josh Naylor’s readiness in the wake of major ankle surgery.

The Guardians declined their club option on Roberto Perez, so the two sides may now be parting ways after Perez’s eight seasons in Cleveland.  Austin Hedges represents a cheaper in-house option as a similar glove-first, light-hitting catcher, and while Perez’s $7MM price tag was too rich for the Guardians’ blood, a reunion at a lower salary could be possible.  With Hedges and prospects Bo Naylor and Bryan Lavastida in the pipeline, Cleveland is likely to consider only shorter-term veterans like Perez for their needs behind the plate, unless the front office feels a more bold long-term answer is required.  Catching depth isn’t exactly easy to find, but speculatively, teams like the Blue Jays (who are often linked to Cleveland on the rumor mill) or the Braves lineup as trade partners.

First base could also be a position of need, depending on how comfortable the Guardians feel about Bradley.  In his first season of regular playing time, Bradley hit 16 homers but batted only .208/.294/.445 and struck out in 99 of his 279 plate appearances.  To begin the season, Cleveland could let a platoon of Bradley and Chang or Miller handle first base duties, and then perhaps look for first base help during the year if an upgrade is required.  If the club wants to move now, however, someone like Anthony Rizzo might fall within the Guardians’ price range in free agency, and the likes of Matt Olson, Luke Voit, or J.D. Davis could be available targets on the trade market.

Even considering the extra payroll space involved this winter, it’s probably safe to assume the Guardians will stick largely to the trade route rather than free agency, considering how Antonetti’s front office has generally found quite a bit of success in swinging trades over the years.  Rival clubs will surely ask about Freeman, Arias, Jones, and other top minor leaguers in negotiations, and Cleveland will be hesitant about moving any of the names at the top of their board just because of how much emphasis the team puts on building from within.  Since several of the Guardians’ most notable prospects will likely hit the majors within a year or two, it does give the team some flexibility in deciding who to keep or who to dangle as a trade chip, especially since most teams prioritize big league-ready young talent.

No shortage of options are available to the Guardians this winter, which is why any thoughts of dealing Ramirez or Bieber to spark a rebuild seem extremely premature.  While the AL Central promises to be more competitive in 2022, the Guardians certainly must feel like winning the division crown is possible, and even having a healthy rotation last year would’ve gone a long way towards reducing the 13-game gap between Cleveland and the first-place White Sox.  If you’re looking for a metaphor for the launch of the Guardians name, maybe 2021 was the bridge year necessary to get the team past the pandemic and back to some semblance of business as usual, since the Guardians are likely to be aggressive in getting back to winning baseball.

Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

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The Orioles lost 110 games in 2021, the third time in the past four seasons with a sub-.400 winning percentage. It’s been five seasons since the Orioles last made the postseason, and the odds are stacked against them in the AL East.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • None
  • 2022 commitments: $0MM
  • Total long-term commitments: $0MM

Projected Salaries For Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • None

Free Agents

Take a look at the guaranteed contracts section above and that’s about all you need to know about the state of the Baltimore Orioles. The good news is that they no longer have any onerous contracts on the books, but no amount of frugality will turn you into a rich man. At some point, the Orioles are going to need to start putting some long-term building blocks in place if they want to compete in the AL East.

The fact is, before the 2021 season even started, we pretty much knew what the two biggest stories of the year would be for these Orioles. Trey Mancini’s return was going to galvanize the fanbase and give the Baltimore faithful a real feel-good story to follow, and Adley Rutschman would continue his march towards the Major Leagues. Both narratives played about almost exactly as expected — and that’s not to diminish Mancini’s comeback, which was genuinely heartwarming, or Rutschman’s impressive march towards Camden Yards.

Mancini put on a show in the Home Run Derby and played in 147 games during the regular season. He hit .255/.326/.432 with 21 home runs in 616 plate appearances, good for just 0.8 rWAR overall. It was a good, albeit not great return to action for Mancini, who nevertheless gave fans in Baltimore something to cheer about.

Rutschman took another giant steps towards becoming the face of the franchise. He hit .271/.392/.508 in 80 games with Double-A Bowie before earning his promotion to Triple-A, where he slashed .312/.405/.490 across 185 plate appearances. If Rutschman isn’t in the Major Leagues in 2022, it’s because something went seriously wrong with the CBA negotiations and nobody is playing baseball. He’s ready.

Beyond those narratives, there was a third story that somewhat unexpectedly took over headlines in Baltimore this season: the emergence of Cedric Mullins. The 26-year-old broke out in a major way, posting MVP-caliber numbers, making his first All-Star game and earning his first Silver Slugger Award. He posted a 5.7 rWAR season while slashing .291/.360/.518, hitting 30 bombs and stealing 30 bases to be the Majors only 30-30 player. Those of us who remember Mullins from a dismal 22-game stint back in 2019 need to seriously re-calibrate expectations for Baltimore’s newest star.

The rest of the roster remains in serious flux, especially on the pitching side, where John Means continues to be their undisputed top starter. Means had a good year, logging 146 2/3 innings in 26 starts with a 3.62 ERA. At 28 years old, he may not seem like the ideal building block for the rotation, but he is still under team control for three more seasons, which is why the team hasn’t seriously explored trading Means up to this point.

Again, however, we must look to the minor leagues to see the most impactful developments for Baltimore. Grayson Rodriguez looks like an ace in the making, and like Rutschman, he’s nearing Major League readiness. Rodriguez made 18 starts in Double-A, logging 79 2/3 innings with a stellar 2.60 ERA/2.73 FIP. The towering 6’5″ right-hander is a significant talent, and he could be pitching in Baltimore by next summer.

Southpaw D.L. Hall could join him there soon. Hall was just added to the 40-man roster. He made just seven starts in Double-A but nevertheless posted a promising 3.33 ERA in those 31 2/3 innings. He also put up a 3.46 ERA/3.22 FIP over 80 2/3 innings in High-A. Nothing is a sure thing in the prospect world, but in Rodriguez and Hall, the O’s have a pretty strong pair of rotation arms that are pretty close to kicking Baltimore’s rebuild into high gear.

Given how close Baltimore’s highest profile prospects are to the Majors, it’s fair to wonder if this might be the winter when GM Mike Elias finally make a significant play for a free agent. They aren’t ready to compete, but they also might not be quite as far from the types of pre-contender free agency deals that we’ve seen for veterans like Jayson Werth and Manny Machado.

There’s certainly some room on the roster (and obviously on the payroll) to add a veteran or two. They’re fairly well stocked in the outfield where Mullins was flanked by Anthony Santander and Austin Hays. Whichever of Mancini and Ryan Mountcastle aren’t playing first base can also spend time in the grass, though they’re both better suited in a designated hitter role. Hays had a bit of a breakout 3.1 rWAR season, though Santander took a step back after a solid 2020. Santander and Hays are under team control for three and four more years respectively, so they are likely to continue to log a starter’s workload in the grass. That said, Mancini, Mountcastle, Santander, and Hays may be a perfect barbershop quartet, but the O’s could easily split up the timeshare for left, right, first, and DH more than four ways, should Elias find a free agent at the right price.

There’s room for another character in the outfield carousel, but if Elias is to inject some talent into this lineup, he’s most likely to do so in the infield. As of today, Jorge Mateo, Ramon Urias, and Kelvin Gutierrez rank as the incumbents next to Mountcastle in the infield. Mountcastle, at 24 and a longtime top prospect, probably has the longest leash of the four after slashing a palatable .255/.309/.487 with 33 home runs and 89 RBIs in 586 plate appearances. He has now been 16 percent better than average with the stick by measure of wRC+ in 726 career plate appearances in the Majors. That’s a promising chunk of action for Mountcastle, though the bar will be set high since he does not add much value with his glove.

Mateo, Urias, and Gutierrez are more place holders than long-term pieces. Mateo is the youngest, and he will turn 27 in June of next season. Urias as been the most productive of the bunch, as the 27-year-old has hit an impressive .286/.365/.425 in 323 plate appearances over two seasons since being claimed off waivers from the Cardinals.

Urias should feel secure in his roster spot, but his ability to move around the infield makes the right-handed hitter a pretty ideal fit as a fringe starter/utility type. That might be the ceiling for Mateo and Richie Martin, Urias’ theoretical backup at short, who hasn’t shown enough bat to stick it in the Majors (.214/.343/.348 in 134 plate appearance in the minors last year).

They can’t all be tenth men, however, which is where a free agent or two could make sense for Baltimore. Their prospect lists aren’t real deep in terms of infielders nearing the Majors, outside of Jahmai Jones, a former Angels’ prospect acquired last February for Alex Cobb. Jones hit alright in the minors this season (.251/.343/.445), but the numbers aren’t so flashy as to block the acquisition of a potential free agent. They recently added Lucius Fox from the Royals to join this pool of potential infielders.

Of course, this is all speculation, as Elias has yet to show a willingness to spend in free agency since taking over in November 2018. To his credit, there has been little reason to spend on a team destined for the AL East basement. Given that they are a near certainty to finish in the basement again in 2022, it may be a year or two early for Elias to open up the pocketbook.

Elias’ challenge, after all, is unique for a rebuilding given the incline of the uphill climb they face in their division. The Red Sox nearly made the World Series, the Blue Jays are just beginning an era of presumed prosperity, the Rays have a farm system that should keep them in contention for the next half decade, and the Yankees’ haven’t had a losing season since Derek Jeter’s draft year. In that climate, the Orioles aren’t likely to luck into a playoff spot.

Still, if Mullins’ breakout is real and Rutschman has the type of 2022 that dreams are made of, the Birds will have long-term answers at the two toughest positions to fill. The third position on that list – shortstop – happens to have a robust collection of talent available in free agency this season. I know, it’s not super likely that the Orioles will reel in Carlos Correa or Corey Seager, but they could be players at the tail end of that market, especially if the jobs dry up elsewhere and someone like Javier Baez begins to consider a short-term make-good kind of offer. Speculatively speaking, there’s also a potentially robust secondary market on the trade block, should they want to make a move for someone like Paul DeJong, a spiritual successor for J.J. Hardy whose contract should make him an easy get in terms of the talent return.

Elias could also look to the hot corner, though there aren’t as many appealing options after Kris Bryant and Chris Taylor. The same can be said for second base. At the very least, Baltimore could look to make the type of addition they’ve made in recent seasons, bringing in a veteran on a short-term deal in the mold of Freddy Galvis, keeping one eye on flipping them at the deadline. Jose Iglesias, Cesar Hernandez, Josh Harrison, Leury Garcia, Jonathan Villar, Matt Duffy, or Marwin Gonzalez might merit consideration for that kind of deal. Former Mariner Shed Long is a textbook target as a former top prospect who is still relatively young at 26 years old.

Galvis’ one-year, $1.5MM deal was the only Major League contract Elias handed out last offseason, and until we see otherwise, that’s probably the level of dealing that we can expect from Elias.

There’s even less likely to be a splashy free agent pitcher making his new home in Baltimore, though the O’s ought to at least explore the middle of the market. One of Elias’ trademarks in recent seasons has been acquiring enough low-cost, quad-A-type arms to keep their farmhands fresh. He hasn’t wanted to rush any of their pitching prospects through the system, and that means having enough talent on hand to survive a full 162-game season.

Players like Bruce Zimmermann, Zac Lowther, Dean Kremer, and Keegan Akin give the Orioles options for the rotation, but only Means has a rotation spot on lockdown. The others not only could be bumped from the rotation, but they have options remaining as well. Paul Fry, Dillon Tate, Rule 5 pick Tyler Wells, southpaw Tanner Scott and breakout righty Cole Sulser did enough to earn bullpen seats next year, but there’s definitely room for an addition or two beyond that group.

Frankly, Elias has already been relatively busy this winter. He allowed Hunter Harvey to be claimed off waivers while re-signing Marcos Diplan and Spenser Watkins on minor league deals. Elias and manager Brandon Hyde also brought in a pair of hitting coaches to bring some new voices into the clubhouse.

The Orioles aren’t breaking any doors down yet to get out of the AL East basement, but there is intrigue at the top of Baltimore’s roster for the first time in years. Rutschman is the type of two-way talent that can change the course of a franchise, but when he arrives, the ticking clock starts, too.

Check out the rest of MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook series here.

Offseason Outlook: Oakland Athletics

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After four winning seasons, the window may now be closed for the Athletics, as the team seems intent on cutting payroll and trading several key players.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Elvis Andrus, SS: $14MM through 2022, Rangers paying $7.25MM of salary ($15MM club option for 2023 becomes guaranteed if Andrus has 550 plate appearances in 2022)
  • Stephen Piscotty, OF: $8.25MM in 2022 (includes $1MM buyout of $15MM club option for 2023)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Free Agents

With such a large and increasingly expensive arbitration class on the horizon, 2021 seemed like a make-or-break year for this version of the Athletics, who looked increasingly like an all-in team as the season proceeded.  The A’s made big trade deadline moves for Starling Marte, Josh Harrison, Andrew Chafin, and Yan Gomes to help down the stretch but it wasn’t enough, as Oakland finished 86-76 and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2017.

The disappointment is palpable among A’s fans, who already face the uncertainty of whether or not their team will even still be in Oakland in a few years’ time, and now are looking at yet another step-back or reload of the roster.  As general manager David Forst plainly put it, “This is the cycle for the A’s.  We have to listen and be open to whatever comes out of this.  This is our lot in Oakland until it’s not.”

Obligatory note: we aren’t talking enormous payroll numbers here.  While the Athletics do have a big arbitration class, those costs are belied by the fact that Elvis Andrus and Stephen Piscotty represent the club’s only guaranteed salary commitments.  Cot’s Baseball Contracts and Roster Resource project Oakland’s current 2022 payroll to sit in the range of roughly $81.2MM to $85.36MM, which would still represent one of the lower payrolls of any team in baseball.  Just standing pat in this range would make it tricky for the A’s to make any necessary upgrades, but executive vice president Billy Beane and Forst have done more with less in the past, so a case can certainly be made that Athletics owner John Fisher could or should spend enough to allow one more season with this core group of players.

And yet, that is not how Fisher (or any Athletics ownership group of the last 25 years) operates.  The only question now is just how much payroll will be slashed, and the first herald of the spending cuts came when longtime manager Bob Melvin was allowed to interview with the Padres and ultimately take San Diego’s managerial job.  Melvin was still under contract for the 2022 season, but Oakland let Melvin go without any compensation, seemingly just to get Melvin’s reported $4MM salary off the books.  There hasn’t yet been much news about who the Athletics might yet hire as Melvin’s replacement, and under the circumstances, it is probably best to expect a first-time manager more willing to take a lesser salary.

Some reports suggest the A’s might be aiming to spend as little as $50MM on player salaries in 2022, and if such a drop is coming, there is no shortage of potential sell-off moves available to the team.  Since extensions now seem to be out of the question, impending free agents like Chris Bassitt and Sean Manaea are the likeliest to go.  Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, and Frankie Montas are only controlled through 2023, and Olson’s projected $12MM arbitration salary would represent the biggest outlay on the Athletics’ books, so the All-Star first baseman may have already played his last game for Oakland.

If there is a silver lining to this situation for Athletics fans, past history has shown that the team isn’t likely to deal all five of these players.  Beane has never taken the A’s through a total rebuild over his 24 years running the front office, so it doesn’t seem likely that he would embark on such a course now (with the caveat that the A’s may still be feeling pandemic-related revenue losses).  If we’re targeting which A’s players are the likeliest to be traded, it is also worth guessing which may still be on the roster come Opening Day.  Montas, for instance, is probably the least likely of the “big five” members of the arbitration class to be moved, if for no other reason than he is less expensive that Manaea and Bassitt, and Oakland isn’t likely to move all three of its top starters.

The other optimistic slant on the Athletics’ winter is that Beane and Forst have walked this road before and have consistently been able to get the A’s back on track within a couple of years, at most.  As difficult as it will be to replace some of the names likely to leave Oakland within the next few months, it isn’t totally out of the question that the A’s can still be competitive in 2022, if Beane/Forst can acquire some MLB-ready younger players who break out on their new team.

For two years of a power-hitting, Gold Glove first baseman like Olson, for instance, the A’s can justifiably ask for multiple top prospects and a player off a trade partner’s big league roster that could help the Athletics in 2022.  Someone like the Yankees’ Luke Voit makes for a reasonable example — Olson would be taking over first base anyway — and the Yankees have already been linked to Olson. (Of course, the A’s might not be interested in Voit and his salary if they aren’t planning to try to contend next year.)  The A’s have often focused on MLB-ready starters in major trades as well, which is how they came to acquire Bassitt and Montas in the first place.

The Yankees, to be clear, are just one example.  Any of the Brewers, Guardians, Padres, Red Sox, Mariners, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies or Braves could make sense for an Olson trade, perhaps in some cases hinging on other roster moves at first base and/or whether National League teams will have a DH in 2022.

Olson is valuable enough that the Athletics shouldn’t dilute their potential trade return by attaching an undesirable contract (i.e. Piscotty or Andrus) to a possible trade package, yet the club might explore this tactic with other trade chips at some point in the winter.  For instance, if Olson and Manaea are dealt to get some new young talent in the pipeline, the A’s could go into full salary dump mode and package something like Bassitt and Piscotty together to a team willing to absorb Piscotty’s salary in order to ultimately give up lesser prospects in the deal.  As much as it would hurt to give up any of the “big five” for a miminal return, deploying this strategy in one trade would sting less if Oakland has already banked some prospects in earlier trades.  Also, moving Piscotty or Andrus might free up enough payroll to spare the A’s from having to make a subsequent trade of a Chapman or a Montas.

Identifying specific target areas for the 2022 A’s is a little difficult at the moment, considering we don’t yet known the breadth of the club’s fire sale.  Third base, for example, could either be a set position or a big vacancy depending on whether Chapman stays or goes.  To this end, Chad Pinder might be a useful piece to keep in his final year of arbitration eligibility, since Pinder’s versatility at least gives the A’s some flexibility in how they address various positions.

It is safe to call outfield help a must, since Marte and Mark Canha are both free agents.  Ramon Laureano is the lone starter remaining and will return in center field, though he’ll miss the first 27 games of 2022 to complete the remainder of his 80-game PED suspension.  Piscotty is penciled into the right field job at the moment, but after three seasons of injuries and replacement-level play, it is difficult to know what expect from him next year.

Among internal options, Seth Brown and Tony Kemp are the most probable candidates to see time in the corner outfield slots.  However, both could also be needed at other positions (Kemp at second base, Brown at first base or DH), thus opening the door for any of Luis Barrera, Skye Bolt, Cody Thomas, or Buddy Reed to earn some outfield playing time.  A low-cost veteran could be added to that group, yet this is another decision that could hinge on how much emphasis the Athletics are putting on 2022.  If the A’s are taking a full step back from a run at the playoffs, the team might decide to just let the youngsters play and see who emerges as an MLB-capable player.

Assuming Kemp isn’t traded, shortstop prospect Nick Allen’s development could factor into Kemp’s primary position in the lineup.  Allen is expected to make his Major League debut in 2022 and is already more than ready from a defensive perspective, so his longer-term role is Oakland’s shortstop of the future.  With Andrus at shortstop for one more year, the A’s could break Allen in as a second baseman, thus freeing up Kemp to see more time in left field.

Jed Lowrie is one of the Oakland free agents who might be a realistic candidate to be re-signed, and thus he could also be part of the infield picture.  After two injury-ruined seasons with the Mets, Lowrie returned to the A’s and played in 139 games last season, providing around league-average offense over 512 plate appearances.  Heading into his age-38 season, Lowrie may have a tough time competing with younger utility infield types on the free agent market, and the A’s could welcome back a familiar veteran to provide leadership through what might be a transitional year.

James Kaprielian and Cole Irvin could end up being the top two starters in the Oakland rotation depending on what happens with Manaea, Bassitt, and Montas.  Since it seems quite likely at least one of that trio will be dealt, the Athletics will need some starters.  Daulton Jefferies probably has the inside track on one spot and A.J. Puk another if he can stay healthy, which is a big if considering all of the injuries Puk has already faced in his short career.

Any of Grant Holmes, Brian Howard or Paul Blackburn will be in competition for another starting role, but this is certainly an area where the A’s will have to land some kind of inexpensive veteran depth, just to cover any possible innings.  It also isn’t exactly a surprise to say that the Athletics will look to acquire some MLB-ready starting pitching in any trades since every team is always looking for more arms, yet Oakland’s need is particularly strong considering how many of their current starters could be traded.

Chafin declined his half of a mutual option and Jake Diekman’s club option wasn’t exercised, so those two join Sergio Romo and Yusmeiro Petit as prominent A’s relievers now set for free agency.  Beane and Forst have traditionally been pretty aggressive in adding to their bullpens over the years, though that strategy might not be optimal in a winter of budget cutbacks (and with the Trevor Rosenthal signing still lingering as the major misfire of last year’s offseason).

The Athletics could at least offer opportunity to any free agent relievers, as the A’s head into 2022 with Lou Trivino penciled in as closer even if he had trouble sticking in the role last year.  In the event of a lockout related to collective bargaining talks, the subsequent roster freeze could lead to a flood of relievers hitting the market when (if?) the freeze is lifted just prior to or during Spring Training.  A surplus of available relievers could help Oakland score a bargain signing or two — particularly since the A’s could reasonably offer save chances and a spacious home park to any potential targets looking to reestablish value.

If the front office succeeds in landing some intriguing prospects over the winter, A’s fans may feel a bit better about the team’s overall direction by Opening Day.  Unfortunately, getting to whatever promising longer-term future awaits will require some more immediate pain, as the Athletics’ “cycle” of roster construction and destruction never stops spinning.  With the Astros reinforcing their pennant-winning squad and the Mariners, Angels, and Rangers all looking to make substantial upgrades this offseason, the Athletics’ first goal may be figuring out just how to avoid a last-place finish.

Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

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The Padres went from a veritable playoff lock to a sub-.500 record on the heels of a catastrophic second-half collapse. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller will go back to the drawing board amid greater expectations and even more pressure.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Fernando Tatis Jr., SS: $329MM through 2034
  • Manny Machado, 3B: $210MM through 2028 (Machado can opt out of contract after 2023 season)
  • Eric Hosmer, 1B: $59MM through 2025
  • Yu Darvish, RHP: $37MM through 2023
  • Blake Snell, LHP: $28.5MM through 2023
  • Ha-Seong Kim, INF: $23MM through 2024 (includes $2MM buyout of $8MM mutual option for 2025)
  • Wil Myers, OF: $21MM through 2022 (includes $1MM buyout of $20MM club option for 2023)
  • Drew Pomeranz, LHP: $16MM through 2023
  • Jurickson Profar, INF/OF: $15MM through 2023 (includes $1MM buyout of $10MM mutual option for 2024; Profar can opt out of contract after 2022 season)
  • Mike Clevinger, RHP: $6.5MM through 2022
  • Craig Stammen, RHP: $4MM through 2022
  • Pierce Johnson, RHP: $3MM through 2022
  • 2022 commitments: $140.5MM
  • Total long-term commitments: $752MM

Projected Salaries for Arbitration-Eligible Players (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Strahm, Castillo, Wingenter

Option Decisions

  • Exercised $4MM club option on RHP Craig Stammen
  • Exercised $3MM club option on RHP Pierce Johnson
  • Declined $4MM club option on OF Jake Marisnick
  • Declined $800K club option on RHP Keone Kela (Kela had Tommy John surgery in late May)
  • RHP Mark Melancon declined $5MM mutual option (received $1MM buyout)

Free Agents

On the day of the 2021 trade deadline, the Padres were 61-45 — still third place in a dominant NL West division but only five games out of first and also holding a commanding five-and-a-half-game lead on the NL’s second Wild Card spot. A postseason berth seemed overwhelmingly likely. The Friars appeared poised for another aggressive deadline, reportedly making a push to acquire Max Scherzer from the Nationals while also exploring trades to shed Eric Hosmer’s contract and improve an inconsistent offense.

Instead, the division-rival Dodgers won the Scherzer bidding, and no deals involving Hosmer materialized. The Padres acquired second baseman/outfielder Adam Frazier despite having various options at both positions, and their other big deadline takeaway was reliever Daniel Hudson. That was hardly a pair of inconsequential acquisitions at the time, but Monday morning quarterbacking was in full effect as the Padres almost immediately performed a swan dive in the Wild Card standings. San Diego astonishingly went 18-38 to close out the season — not only losing a playoff spot but falling below .500 on the year.

Amid that catastrophic fall from grace were reports of tensions in the clubhouse. Second-year manager Jayce Tingler reportedly lost the locker room late in the year, and public-facing spats involving star players like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado only fanned the flames on that narrative.

It came as little surprise, then, to see the offseason begin with Tingler’s ousting. (He’s since joined the Twins as their new bench coach.) What was a surprise — to put things mildly — was the sudden hiring of longtime Athletics manager Bob Melvin, who agreed to a three-year deal to take the reins in San Diego. Melvin was under contract with the A’s through the 2022 season, but a cost-cutting A’s club let him interview and sign with the Padres on a reported three-year, $12MM contract — asking for no compensation in return.

It was a legitimate shocker and widely viewed as something of a coup for the Friars. While their 2021 season ended in disaster, the 2021-22 offseason kicked off on an immensely positive note. Those good feelings will only extend so long, however, and Preller & Co. must now look for ways to improve a roster that faceplanted in the season’s second half.

The first question, quite likely, is simply one of where to begin. The Padres have a remarkable 23 players either on guaranteed contracts or eligible for arbitration, presenting them with a nearly full active roster before even making a move. They’ll surely make some subtractions via non-tender and trade in the coming days, and it stands to reason that the team will again revisit some of those deadline-season trade endeavors.

The reported effort to move Hosmer, for instance, was surely fueled by a desire to improve upon his pedestrian offensive performance but was also borne out of a desire to curb a payroll that has increasingly soared to previously unseen levels in San Diego.  Both Hosmer and Wil Myers are slightly above-average hitters with salaries north of $20MM on the books in 2022. The urgency to move Hosmer’s deal is only heightened by the fact that he’d gain 10-and-5 rights (10 years of MLB service, past five with the same team) at the end of the 2022 season — which would give him full veto power over any trade.

The Padres’ 2022 payroll is already projected by Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez at a staggering $192MM — with nearly $209MM of luxury-tax considerations. That $192MM mark is already nearly $20MM higher than the prior franchise-record. While ownership may be comfortable taking the overall budget to new heights — it’s doubtful they’d have signed Tatis and Machado to those mega-deals were that not the case — the budget surely isn’t limitless. And considering the fact that this Padres club ranked 14th in each of total runs scored, combined wRC+, ERA and FIP, it’s obvious that improvements are needed on both ends of the roster.

Looking for creative ways to shed the contracts of Hosmer or Myers figure to again be revisited this winter, and the Padres have no shortage of square pegs currently being asked to fill round holes. Acquiring Adam Frazier was something of a curious fit in the first place, given the presence of Machado, Tatis and All-Star second baseman Jake Cronenworth, but Frazier’s projected $7.2MM salary now looks even more questionable on the Padres’ roster. He’s obviously a fine player based on his track record in Pittsburgh, but perhaps the lack of a defined role in San Diego didn’t agree with him.

That same logic, to some extent, applies to infielder Ha-Seong Kim. The Padres signed the former KBO superstar to a four-year deal despite lacking obvious infield playing time for him, and Kim struggled to find his footing as he adjusted to big league pitching with inconsistent playing time across multiple positions. Kim was viewed as the equivalent of an MLB-ready, top 100 prospect at the time of his signing but hit just .202/.270/.352 while averaging fewer than three plate appearances over his 117 games.

Between Kim, Frazier and Jurickson Profar, whose questionable three-year deal only looks even more dubious now, the Padres are set to pay upwards of $20MM to a trio of players who don’t even have a defined spot in the everyday lineup. Trading any of the three should be firmly on the table, as should the easier-said-than-done possibility of finally finding a partner in a Hosmer or Myers trade. From a purely speculative standpoint, the money remaining on the Hosmer and Aaron Hicks contracts are quite similar, and Hosmer’s contact-oriented lefty bat could be of some appeal to the Yankees if they don’t re-sign Anthony Rizzo.

If the Padres ultimately are able to shed some of the currently questionable fits for their lineup, they’ll look for ways to quickly reallocate any dollars saved and lineup spots that were vacated. With Tommy Pham reaching free agency and Myers standing as a viable trade candidate, a corner outfielder could be a sensible upgrade. The aforementioned Frazier can certainly handle left field, but alternatives on the market include the likes of Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Michael Conforto, Starling Marte, Avisail Garcia and NPB superstar Seiya Suzuki. At first base, the open market has Rizzo, while the trade market will include Matt Olson, Luke Voit and others.

If the designated hitter is indeed added to the National League, as is widely expected, it’s likely Preller will look to old friend Nelson Cruz. Preller has shown a clear affinity for former Rangers players in past iterations of the Padres’ roster, and he even explored the possibility of acquiring Cruz at the trade deadline and playing him at first base. The addition of a DH would also make it easier for San Diego (or any other NL club) to put forth a long-term offer for either of Castellanos or Schwarber, who boast imposing bats but come with sub-par defensive grades.

On the pitching side of things, the Padres have a pretty strong group on paper. The combination of Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove, Mike Clevinger, Dinelson Lamet and Chris Paddack looks sound. The trio of MacKenzie Gore, Adrian Morejon (who had Tommy John surgery in May) and Ryan Weathers makes for an enticing and upside-laden series of depth options.

That said, the starting rotation was expected to be a strength in 2021 but turned into a glaring liability. Darvish melted down the stretch after a strong first several months, while the opposite was true of Snell. Lamet’s ongoing injury woes limited his innings and placed a large slate of red flags on him for the 2022 season. Clevinger, like Morejon, is coming back from Tommy John surgery and as we know, that’s hardly a lock. (Just look at Noah Syndergaard’s 2021 season.) Paddack, meanwhile, struggled throughout the season and has yet to recapture his brilliant rookie form. Weathers was hit hard after a promising start, and most confounding of all, Gore barely pitched in the minors — instead spending much of the season working through mechanical issues at the Padres’ Arizona facility.

By late in the season, the Padres were giving starts to reclamation projects like Jake Arrieta and Vince Velasquez as they clung to faint postseason hopes. The end result was a rotation that finished 29th in the Majors in innings pitched (741 1/3) and 18th in ERA (4.54).

Further compounding matters for the Friars is that the rotation is a rather expensive group. Darvish, Snell, Musgrove, Clevinger, Paddack and Lamet will earn somewhere in the vicinity of $55MM combined, but only Musgrove showed any real consistency in 2021. San Diego will hope that swapping out former pitching coach Larry Rothschild — who was fired in August — for Ruben Niebla will help to improve the results. That said, if the Padres are again looking for ways to shake up the roster, it’s at least feasible that one of Darvish or Snell could be moved as a means of freeing up payroll and opening a spot for a different acquisition.

The uncertainty surrounding several promising young arms — Weathers, Gore, Morejon, and Lamet — also raises the possibility of moving anyone from that group in a trade of note. Preller is routinely involved in all of the big names on the market, and it’s easy to imagine Oakland’s Olson and perhaps one of their available starters piquing the Padres’ interest. A shot at a high-ceiling wild card like Minnesota’s Byron Buxton, or perhaps an aggressive pursuit of a Cincinnati starter like Sonny Gray or Luis Castillo could seemingly be in the cards, too. It’s easy to write off the Padres as a team that doesn’t definitively “need” another starter, but Preller showed last year in acquiring Darvish, Snell and Musgrove that he’s unafraid to stockpile pieces in areas where the big league roster does not have a dire need. (See also: the signing of Kim and acquisition of Frazier.)

As far as relief pitching is concerned, the Padres generally appear to have a strong group, but that shouldn’t squarely rule them out from making some notable additions. Mark Melancon led baseball in saves this past season and is now a free agent. He came to the Padres on a bargain deal after his market failed to materialize last winter, so it’s unlikely he’d be re-signed at a premium rate. Waiting out the market and pouncing on a veteran arm again this offseason makes sense, though, particularly with standout southpaw Drew Pomeranz on the mend from a torn flexor tendon.

As is the case in the rotation and the lineup, however, the Padres can’t be ruled out if a big-name reliever becomes available via trade. Don’t be surprised to see them linked to Josh Hader or Craig Kimbrel in the weeks and months to come.

More than any team in Major League Baseball, the Padres have proven themselves difficult to predict. Preller’s “Rock Star GM” moniker, given to him by Matt Kemp after a dizzying flurry of transactions in his first offseason on the job, is often used in humorous fashion — but it’s also rooted in some truth. Preller has shown a repeated affinity to grab headlines with fearless trades, free-agent signings and extensions alike, often moving players who seemed unattainable or acquiring players despite a lack of obvious need. He is quite arguably the sport’s most aggressive baseball operations leader, and given the mounting expectations in San Diego and a shocking freefall from 2021 playoff contention, there’s more pressure than ever to find the right pieces.

Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners

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The Mariners closed the book on what turned out to be a roughly two-year rebuild with a 90-win season that saw them fight for a Wild Card berth up until the final series of the season. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto will add aggressively this winter.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Marco Gonzales, LHP: $24MM through 2024 (contract includes $15MM club option for 2025, with no buyout)
  • Evan White, 1B: $21.4MM through 2025 (includes $2MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2026; contract also includes 2027-28 club options)
  • Ken Giles, RHP: $5.5MM through 2022 (includes $500K buyout of $9.5MM club option for 2023)
  • Chris Flexen, RHP: $2.75MM through 2022 (contract includes $4MM* club option for 2023)
  • Total 2022 commitment: $14.65MM
  • Total long-term commitments: $53.65MM

*=Flexen’s option price doubles to $8MM with 300 total innings from 2021-22; he pitched 179 2/3 innings in 2021.

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Declined $20MM option on 3B Kyle Seager in favor of $2MM buyout
  • Declined four-year, $66MM option on LHP Yusei Kikuchi; Kikuchi declined $13MM player option to become free agent

Free Agents

Over the past three years, the Mariners have traded James Paxton, Omar Narvaez, Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz, Jean Segura, Edwin Encarnacion, Roenis Elias, Austin Nola, Austin Adams and Kendall Graveman with an eye toward the future. This year’s deadline trade sending Graveman to the division-rival Astros in exchange for five years of control over Abraham Toro could go down as the final forward-looking, “big picture” trade of a veteran for young talent.

After all, the Mariners were in playoff contention until the very end of the year. They fell just shy of their first postseason appearance in two decades — the longest drought in Major League Baseball — but the performance of the young core acquired by Dipoto & Co. sets the stage for an active offseason.

One change that appears certain lies at third base. Kyle Seager, the heart and soul of this Mariners club for many years, fought back tears when manager Scott Servais pulled him from the ninth inning of Seattle’s final game. In one of the more emotional moments of the year throughout all of MLB (video link), the home fans chanted Seager’s name as the dugout emptied and he hugged and bid farewell to the only team he’s known. Seager was given the third base bag and took a curtain call clutching it over his head as he thanked a raucous fan base.

It’s almost symbolic, in a bittersweet way for fans, that this turning of the page coincides with the face of the Mariners for the past several seasons likely leaving. Seager’s $20MM option was declined at season’s end, and while a reunion can’t be expressly ruled out, the scene at T-Mobile Park on Oct. 3 certainly had the feel of a goodbye.

There’s no “replacing” a player this revered and beloved in the clubhouse — shortstop J.P. Crawford could scarcely speak when praising Seager after that final game — but Seager’s likely departure leaves an opening in the lineup. The aforementioned Toro could step into an everyday role in that spot but can also play second. Similarly, Ty France has experience at third base but is a better defender at first or second base.

Given how little the Mariners have on the books in 2022, there’s really no free agent who should be off limits. Seattle has only $14.65MM in guaranteed 2022 contracts, and the arbitration class should only bump that number to around $40MM. This is the same ownership group that averaged an Opening Day payroll of $152.1MM from 2017-19.

Dipoto has already said this winter that he’ll prioritize “adaptable” free agents — those who are comfortable moving around if need be. He name-checked both Marcus Semien and Javier Baez when making those comments, instantly making each a potential fit. Kris Bryant is another such option — a possible everyday third baseman who could fill in as needed across the diamond or at any of the three outfield spots. Old friend Chris Taylor, meanwhile, has built a career on being “adaptable.”

What’s become clear is that there’s little interest in displacing Crawford at shortstop. The 26-year-old (27 in January) won a Gold Glove in 2020 and has cemented himself as a quality defender with an improving bat (.273/.338/.376 in 2021). Dipoto has already informed Crawford that the Mariners see him as the everyday shortstop. Perhaps Crawford would be amenable to sliding elsewhere if the Mariners got serious in a pursuit of Carlos Correa, but it seems far likelier they’ll make a run at players in the Bryant/Semien/Baez/Taylor tiers. Trevor Story is also in that “second” tier of free-agent shortstops and could feasibly improve his market by showing an openness to second base.

While Crawford, France and Toro each have 2022 spots locked down, Evan White’s future is less certain. The 25-year-old was the No. 17 pick in 2017 and inked a six-year, $24MM contract with three club options before making his MLB debut. So far, he’s struggled to a .165/.235/.308 slash in the Majors. It’s only 304 plate appearances, however, and White was surely hampered by a 2021 hip injury that required surgery. There’s still room for him to be a part of the future — he’s earning just $1.4MM in 2022 — but it’s tough to pencil him into the Opening Day lineup in a win-now season, especially with France’s breakout at first.

The Mariners don’t have a set DH and could use that spot as an opportunity to add even more offense — a Nelson Cruz reunion would be well-received by fans, for instance — but there’s no indication that’s a priority. In fact, keeping the DH spot relatively free may be of particular importance as the team hopes for better health from 2020 Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis.

A career .258/.343/.450 hitter (121 wRC+) through his first 464 MLB plate appearances, Lewis was limited to 36 games this year after undergoing surgery to repair a right meniscus tear. It’s not the first time he’s encountered right knee troubles; Lewis suffered a dual meniscus tear and ACL tear in that same knee in 2016. Setting aside some occasional DH reps for him could have obvious benefits.

Beyond Lewis, the M’s have two of the game’s most highly touted young outfielders in Jarred Kelenic and the yet-to-debut Julio Rodriguez. Kelenic struggled in his first taste of the Majors but improved with a .233/.304/.455 line following the trade deadline and a .248/.331/.524 showing over his final month. Rodriguez, meanwhile, posted a ludicrous .347/.441/.560 line between Class-A Advanced and Double-A. He’s considered a Top 5 prospect in all of baseball and could debut in early 2022.

Even after the trio of Lewis, Kelenic and Rodriguez, the Mariners are deep. Taylor Trammell had his own struggles during his 2021 debut, but he’s another now-former Top 100 prospect who posted solid numbers in Triple-A (.263/.362/.456) and only recently turned 24. Jake Fraley didn’t hit for average but was an OBP machine who walked in more than 17% of his plate appearances. And, of course, veteran right fielder Mitch Haniger returned from a harrowing sequence of fluke injuries to crush a career-high 39 home runs.

Haniger’s name has been bandied about the rumor circuit for years now, and there will surely be fans and pundits who speculate on his availability once again now that he’s a year from free agency. Howver, it’d be difficult to move him when he’s projected for a palatable $8.5MM salary and was a key middle-of-the-lineup presence in 2021. Seattle’s aim this winter is to deepen the lineup, and a trade of Haniger would run counter to that thinking. Dipoto is an open-minded baseball ops leader and could at least listen to offers, but a Haniger extension seems more prudent to explore than a possible trade.

Behind the plate, the M’s have a trio of options. Tom Murphy gives them a veteran who has had some big league success, while either Cal Raleigh or Luis Torrens could be a long-term solution. That depth could draw the interest of other clubs in need of catching help, with the Marlins standing out as a team who could entice the Mariners with some starting pitching.

The rotation will be a focus for Seattle this winter. Marco Gonzales shook off a terrible April, returning from a five-week IL stint to log a 3.60 ERA in his final 115 frames. Last winter’s low-cost dice roll on KBO breakout Chris Flexen was an overwhelming success, as Flexen turned in a 3.61 ERA over 179 2/3 innings. Top prospect Logan Gilbert had a rough patch in the middle of the season but was dominant down the stretch, pitching to a 2.70 ERA over his final six starts. With a 4.68 ERA overall and terrific strikeout and walk rates, he earned a spot in 2022.

After that trio, there’s not as much certainty. Justus Sheffield and Justin Dunn were notable acquisitions during the rebuild but might be looking at bullpen roles in the future, given their struggles and a slate of impressive prospects yet to come. First-rounders George Kirby and Emerson Hancock are still on the rise, and 2019 second-rounder Brandon Williamson has only seen his stock soar since the draft. Matt Brash dominated in the minors and has likely already made the Padres regret parting with him in a trade to acquire Taylor Williams.

Even with all those prospects nearing the big leagues, the Mariners’ win-now mantra will push them to bring in some established veterans. With so much payroll space, there’s no reason to think the Mariners couldn’t ink one of the top pitchers on the market even after signing a free-agent bat. However, the safer bet may be to add some solid mid-rotation arms as opposed to the type of $100MM+ deals that could be commanded by Max Scherzer, Robbie Ray, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman.

The market has plenty of options, including Jon Gray, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood and Steven Matz. If the Mariners are open to some risk, Carlos Rodon was one of the game’s best starters when healthy this season but ended the year with some concerning shoulder troubles. A team in Seattle’s spot could view Rodon’s late injury flags as a means of buying a possible No. 1 starter at a discount. The downside is obvious with a pitcher who managed just 36 innings in the final 10 weeks of the season and saw a rapid drop in his fastball velocity, but with so many prospects providing depth, perhaps the Mariners can take that chance.

This is the first time under Dipoto that the Mariners are likely to be more active in free agency than in trades, but there’s probably a limit to how much they’ll spend on the open market. With the need for a big bat and at least one — if not two — rotation spots open, the Mariners will surely explore that route. By now, it’s well known that names like Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Frankie Montas, Pablo Lopez, Elieser Hernandez, Merrill Kelly and others could be available on the trade market.

That said, fans of other clubs dreaming up scenarios to acquire the likes of Rodriguez, Noelvi Marte, Kirby, Hancock and other Mariners top prospects may want to pump the brakes. Dipoto said at the GM Meetings last week that there’s “no scenario” where he’ll move the very top prospects in his organization (link via Corey Brock of The Athletic). Seattle has Baseball America’s top-ranked farm system though, so there’s plenty of value even in the middle tiers that could be used in trades. It’s also plausible that a controllable player without a clear path to playing time (e.g. Trammell, Fraley) could be part of a package for immediate help — be it in the lineup, the rotation or the bullpen.

Of course, the Mariners’ need for relief pitching is less acute, especially if Sheffield and Dunn join this mix. Breakout righty Paul Sewald went from a struggling Mets depth piece to a powerhouse closing option who fanned nearly 40% of his 2021 opponents. The M’s struck gold on a minor league deal for Drew Steckenrider and picked up a big-time righty from the Rays at the deadline in Diego Castillo. Former All-Star Ken Giles will join that trio in 2022 when he returns from Tommy John surgery. Casey Sadler won’t repeat his ridiculous 0.67 ERA but has locked a spot down. Seattle also received promising showings from Erik Swanson and Yohan Ramirez, and they’ll have a full season of Andres Munoz and his triple-digit heater now that he’s back from Tommy John surgery.

If there’s one area the Mariners are lacking, it’s a lefty. A pursuit of Andrew Chafin or Aaron Loup seems sensible, and this is another area where a trade might make sense. The M’s could also look at Sheffield here and/or give Anthony Misiewicz a bigger look. Misiewicz’s 4.61 ERA isn’t eye-catching, but he had better marks from metrics like FIP and SIERA.

However the Mariners choose to attack the offseason, it’s unlikely to look like any we’ve previously seen since Dipoto took the reins in Seattle. He’s previously preferred to operate primarily on the trade market, but the Mariners have gotten to that sweet spot where their squeaky clean payroll outlook overlaps with an elite farm that is teeming with MLB-ready talent. The nexus of those two enviable characteristics should open the door for considerable spending this winter and perhaps another big swing on the trade front. The Mariners are veritable locks to add at least one impact bat (likely in the infield) and figure to be active in bolstering the rotation.

With the Athletics going into an obvious rebuild, the Rangers still working to emerge from their own building phase and the Astros perhaps bidding farewell to free agent Carlos Correa, the Mariners’ time is now. They know it, and so does the rest of the industry. It’s going to be a fun offseason for Seattle fans.

Offseason Outlook: Colorado Rockies

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The likely departure of Trevor Story will only hurt a team that has already struggled to generate offense, so landing some hitters who can produce both at home and on the road is the first order of business for Rockies general manager Bill Schmidt.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Antonio Senzatela, SP: $50.5MM through 2026 ($14MM club option for 2027)
  • German Marquez, SP: $28.5MM through 2023 (includes $2.5MM buyout of $16MM club option for 2024)
  • C.J. Cron, 1B: $14.5MM through 2023
  • Scott Oberg, RP: $7MM through 2022 ($8MM club option for 2023)

Other Financial Commitments

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Charlie Blackmon, OF: $21MM player option for 2022 (exercised; Blackmon also has a $10MM player option for 2023, and has already said he will exercise that option as well)
  • Ian Desmond, IF/OF: $15MM club option for 2022 (declined, Desmond received $2MM buyout)

Free Agents

When Jeff Bridich stepped down from the general manager job back in April, the Rockies announced they would look for a new head of baseball operations after the season, with an interim GM filling the role for the remainder of the 2021 campaign.  As it happened, the Rox made their choice early, deciding to elevate interim GM and longtime front office employee Bill Schmidt into the full-time job during the final weekend of the regular season.  As team president/COO Greg Feasel put it, Schmidt impressed upper management to the point that “he didn’t give us a choice…I mean, how many times do you need to be hit over the head with a bat?  And he was the right guy for us at the right time.”

Given how the Rockies often promote from within and place such a large premium on continuity within the organization, Schmidt’s official hiring wasn’t a surprise.  However, for Colorado fans frustrated by their team’s lack of overall success, Rockies owner Dick Monfort’s track record for loyalty is a double-edged sword that seems to prevent new perspectives and new strategies from filtering into the front office.

In fairness to Schmidt, he is a veteran baseball man with his own ideas, so it is maybe too easy to just presume that things will be business as usual at Coors Field.  And, having their GM position decided early did allow the Rockies to get a quick jump on some notable offseason business — inking Antonio Senzatela to a five-year contract extension, and then keeping C.J. Cron off the free agent market by signing the first baseman to a new two-year, $14.5MM deal.

Cron was the more pressing concern since he was just weeks away from the open market, but it isn’t all that surprising he’d welcome staying in one place after changing teams in each of the last four offseasons.  Playing in Denver certainly seemed to agree with Cron, who hit .281/.375/.530 with 28 home runs over 547 plate appearances, fueled by big home/road splits (1.073 OPS at Coors Field, .734 OPS in away games).

Cron certainly did enough to merit that extension, and keeping him in the fold helps reinforce Colorado’s lineup.  That said, Cron’s performance is endemic of the 2021 season as a whole for Rockies hitters, who batted a league-worst .217/.291/.352 (73 wRC+) on the road.  Colorado was only 26-54 in away games, and even at home, the Rockies’ cumulative .280/.341/.475 slash line translated to only a 90 wRC+.

It has now been several years since the Rox have had a productive offense both at home and on the road. The team’s inability to find consistent hitting has been underscored by the fact that the rotation has been perhaps as stable recently as at any point in the franchise’s history.  On the rare occasions when everything is clicking, it is perhaps understandable why Monfort and Schmidt have seemed so insistent that this team isn’t as far away from contention as it seems.  In practice, however, the Rockies have had three straight losing seasons, a flawed roster, a thin minor league system, and many needs to address if they’re going to make any noise in a very competitive NL West.

Let’s begin with the rotation, as German Marquez is the ace of a staff that will return Senzatela, Austin Gomber, and Kyle Freeland. This quartet was collectively decent if unspectacular in 2021.  Senzatela’s extension now locks him in with Marquez (controlled through 2024 via his own extension) and Gomber (controlled through 2025 via arbitration) as long-term pieces for Colorado, even if guaranteeing $50.5MM to Senzatela seemed a little surprising since the righty has had some ups-and-downs over his five MLB seasons.

Extending a pitcher who has had some success at Coors Field does seem like a logical move for the Rockies, considering their difficulties in bringing any premium free agent arms to the thin air.  Barring a big and unlikely overpay, the Rox will be looking to add starting depth through minor league signings and veterans perhaps looking for a bounce-back year.  In-house starting options include Peter Lambert back from Tommy John surgery, rookie Ryan Feltner, and top pitching prospect Ryan Rolison should make his MLB debut in 2022, though none of that group can be counted on to reliably fill a rotation spot just yet.

Trading for a veteran hurler who can eat innings and keep the ball on the ground would be a good idea, and this is one area where Schmidt can easily distinguish himself.  Bridich didn’t make many trades over his six-plus years as the GM, and there weren’t a lot of clear wins in that limited number (the Marquez/Jake McGee deal notwithstanding).

Of course, re-signing Jon Gray would also address that rotation need, though it remains to be seen if a reunion is feasible now that Gray has reached free agency.  The Rockies resisted dealing Gray at the trade deadline because they were so intent on keeping him, and then made an extension offer in the area of $35-$40MM over three years.  This late-season offer was seemingly the only deal officially presented to Gray and his representatives, and when it was rejected, the Rockies then didn’t issue Gray a one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer.  The right-hander now doesn’t have any draft pick compensation attached to his services, making him an even more attractive option for other teams in need of rotation help.

It all adds up to a curious sequence of events, as now Colorado risks losing Gray for nothing.  The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders reported that Gray “likely would have accepted” the QO, so the Rockies would’ve been paying Gray roughly $5MM more in average annual value than they were comfortable with, given the parameters of their extension offer.   Yet, would this have really been that unpalatable a situation, considering how seriously the club seemed to want to retain Gray?  Then again, perhaps even that intent could be called into question if the Rox did make Gray just that one offer, unless the Rockies simply put way too much faith in Gray accepting that three-year extension.

Paying an extra $5MM than expected for Gray would’ve had an impact on Colorado’s payroll availability, but Feasel has stated that the team plans to slowly increase its spending over the next two years.  With roughly $103MM (as per Roster Resource) committed to the 2022 payroll, Feasel said the Rox plan to be back in the $150MM range by 2023, which was what the club was spending in 2018-19 before the pandemic.  That $47MM spending bump isn’t small, though it remains to be seen if the majority of that increase may happen next winter instead of over the coming few months, particularly since the collective bargaining agreement talks could significantly alter baseball’s business rules going forward.

It could also be that spending extra money on a starting pitcher didn’t fit the team’s greatest needs, as Schmidt has said that improving the bullpen and adding power to the lineup are the top priorities.  On the relief pitching front, don’t expect to see any expensive names added, as the Rockies have many of the same issues in attracting relievers as they do in attracting prominent starters (plus, the McGee/Wade Davis/Bryan Shaw contracts undoubtedly still linger in the front office’s memory).

Carlos Estevez enters the offseason as the closer, with Lucas Gilbreath and Robert Stephenson doing the most in 2021 to lay claims on setup roles or even occasional save opportunities.  Daniel Bard’s projected $4.8MM arbitration number is boosted by the saves he did accumulate before losing the closer’s job, but Bard pitched decently well outside the ninth inning and will likely be retained.  Tyler Kinley might be a non-tender candidate, but he isn’t expensive and offers some durability.  Along those same lines, Jhoulys Chacin ate some innings and posted decent numbers in his return to Colorado as a reliever, so the Rox could look to re-sign the veteran.  Since Gilbreath is the only left-hander among any of these bullpen names mentioned, the Rockies will probably target a southpaw or two.

This brings us to the position player mix, and the big gap that exists at shortstop since Trevor Story will be playing elsewhere in 2022.  Story is another of the many pending free agents the Rockies chose to keep at their quiet trade deadline, as Schmidt stated that rival teams didn’t present any offers more attractive than the compensatory draft pick Colorado will receive via the qualifying offer when Story signs with a new team.

The infield vacancy does look like it will be at shortstop, as while Brendan Rodgers has played plenty of shortstop in the minors, the expectation is that the Rockies will keep him at second base.  Rodgers’ first full MLB season was pretty successful, as he hit .284/.328/.470 with 15 homers over 415 PA after a hamstring strain delayed his season debut until May 21.  The former third overall pick now looks like a player to be counted on for regular work going forward, giving Colorado one building block in place.

In fact, the Rockies’ infield mix is pretty settled apart from shortstop.  Cron is at first base, Rodgers at second, Ryan McMahon is at third base, and Elias Diaz is lined up for regular catching duties with Dom Nunez as either the backup or as a platoon partner if his hitting improves.  It isn’t a bad group on paper, yet they were only truly dangerous at Coors Field — Rodgers was the only regular who really hit well in away games, though he countered those splits with subpar production at home.

Ezequiel Tovar looks on pace to be Colorado’s shortstop of the future, though since he’s only 20 years old and hasn’t even played Double-A ball, he isn’t a realistic option until 2023 at the earliest.  If the Rockies have enough confidence in Tovar’s bat to project him as an everyday player, they might only be looking for a short-term shortstop addition to serve as a bridge for the next year or two.  This could put the Rox in line for a relatively inexpensive veteran free agent in the Andrelton Simmons/Freddy Galvis tier, or a utilityman like Leury Garcia or Marwin Gonzalez could help at shortstop and at other positions.  Keeping with the utility theme, re-signing Chris Owings would also seem like a realistic option, even if Owings hasn’t played much shortstop in the last few years.

If the Rockies are going to add some offensive pop and are willing to spend some money to do it, the outfield is the obvious target area.  Longtime Rockie Charlie Blackmon exercised his player option and looks to have one of the corner spots (probably right field) accounted for the next two years, leaving two slots open to a collection of players that includes Sam Hilliard, Raimel Tapia, Connor Joe, Yonathan Daza, and Ryan Vilade.  This group isn’t bereft of talent or potential, but there also isn’t anyone there who would or should preclude the Rox from adding a proven veteran slugger, particularly if the National League adds the DH next year.

Starling Marte is the clear choice as the top center fielder on the market, though a versatile player like Chris Taylor could handle center field, shortstop, and several other spots around the diamond.  Taylor, for what it’s worth, has consistently torched the Rockies and hit well at Coors Field as a visiting player.

Signing Taylor would cost the Rox a compensatory draft pick, however, as would other big-hitting QO free agent outfielders like Nick Castellanos or Michael Conforto.  This could be a sacrifice Colorado is willing to make, figuring that the Story compensatory pick will make up for it, but it probably seems likelier that the Rockies will first look to non-QO outfielders like Avisail Garcia, Kyle Schwarber, or Mark Canha.

The list of targets obviously hinges on what exactly the Rockies are willing to spend, and of course, it also takes two to tango in free agent signings.  The names at the top of the outfield market have flexibility in choosing their next team, and unless Colorado strongly outbids the other suitors, would their top choice be a Rockies team that doesn’t seem like an obvious contender in 2022 (or even 2023)?  Also, the “Coors Field Effect” may turn off hitters as much as pitchers, given how much recent evidence exists that playing in Denver may mess up a hitter’s production from one ballpark to the next.

This same factor also influences the trade market.  As mentioned earlier, Bridich didn’t make many trades as Colorado’s general manager, but that could partially stem from the difficulty in properly evaluating players who spend half their time at Coors Field, especially if many of those same players then struggle on the road.  If the Rox acquired a new outfielder, for example, players like Tapia, Hilliard, or Garrett Hampson might become expendable trade chips.  But, for both Schmidt and rival GMs, how do you properly gauge the value of a player when their home ballpark may have such an outsized impact on their performance?

There’s no question that the Rockies face plenty of difficulties unique to their team alone, yet their situation hasn’t been helped by some self-inflicted wounds, such as the hard feelings that surrounded Nolan Arenado’s departure and how Story seemed openly displeased that he wasn’t moved at the trade deadline.  This offseason will be very instructive in illustrating Schmidt’s direction for the team and how it differs from the Bridich era, and in lieu of substantive changes, Rox fans may continue to be wary at the future outlook.

Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins

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The 2019-20 AL Central champs faceplanted in a 2021 season that was disastrous enough for the Twins to trade away longtime top starter Jose Berrios. Owner Jim Pohlad has made clear that the Twins will not go into a rebuild, so president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine will be looking for immediate help to remedy the roster.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Josh Donaldson, 3B: $50MM through 2023 (includes $8MM buyout of $16MM 2024 club option)
  • Max Kepler, OF: $16.25MM through 2023 (includes $1MM buyout of $10MM 2024 club option)
  • Jorge Polanco, 2B/SS: $12.5MM through 2023 (includes $1MM buyout of $10.5MM 2024 club option; contract also contains $12MM 2025 club option)
  • Miguel Sano, 1B/DH: $12MM through 2022 (includes $2.75MM buyout of $14MM 2023 club option)
  • Randy Dobnak, RHP: $8.55MM through 2025 (includes $1MM buyout of $6MM 2026 club option)
  • Kenta Maeda, RHP: $6MM through 2023
  • Total 2022 commitment: $45.8MM
  • Total long-term commitment: $105.3MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Alex Colome, RHP: Twins declined their end of a $5.5MM mutual option (paid $1.25MM buyout)

Free Agents

Very little went right for the Twins in 2021. Byron Buxton looked like an MVP candidate when healthy but played just 67 games thanks to a hip flexor strain and broken hand. The 2020 Cy Young runner-up, Kenta Maeda, pitched through hip and elbow troubles before undergoing Tommy John surgery. Mitch Garver, Michael Pineda and Max Kepler all had lengthy IL stays.  Top prospect Royce Lewis tore his ACL before the season began. The similarly touted Alex Kirilloff tried to play through a torn ligament in his wrist before he, too, went under the knife. There was a team-wide Covid outbreak in late April. Nearly every free-agent pickup — J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker, Andrelton Simmons, Alex Colome — fell well short of expectations. Things snowballed quickly.

The end result was not only a 73-89 record but also a deadline sell-off that few would’ve expected on Opening Day. Jose Berrios, Nelson Cruz, Hansel Robles and Happ were shipped out for younger players — a series of trades that netted the Twins a trio of prospects who are all featured on at least one prominent Top 100 ranking. Austin Martin, Simeon Woods Richardson and Joe Ryan are now among the team’s top farmhands, and Ryan has already gotten his feet wet in the Majors.

That series of trades and a few free-agent departures leaves the Twins with quite a few holes on the big league roster. Based on the previously mentioned no-rebuild stance from ownership, it seems likely the Twins will seek to fill those holes this winter rather than completely tear down a roster that recently won a pair of division titles.

That does not, however, preclude the Twins from making further subtractions from the current group. Among the team’s prominent trade candidates are the aforementioned Buxton, Kepler, Garver and perhaps younger backstop Ryan Jeffers. Josh Donaldson’s name came up at the trade deadline and could do so again this winter.

The Twins and Buxton’s reps at Jet Sports discussed an extension this summer but were unable to come to terms on a deal. Reports indicated that Minnesota had been willing to commit $80MM over a seven-year term — a baseline framework amenable to both sides. However, Buxton’s camp sought a richer package of incentives in the event that the ultra-talented but oft-injured center fielder began to show more durability.

The Twins and Buxton figure to rekindle extension talks this winter, and Buxton’s case can only be buoyed by the fact that he closed out the season with a .314/.375/.686 slash in his final 112 plate appearances after returning from that ill-timed hand fracture. If the two parties can’t find a middle ground, it’s plenty feasible that the Twins will field offers on one of the more dynamic talents in the game.

In many ways, the difficulties in finding a common ground during extension talks would be mirrored in theoretical trade talks. Other clubs, particularly those seeking defensive upgrades, would relish the opportunity to install Buxton in center field. At the same time, he’s a free agent next winter, and his ongoing injury troubles will make teams wary of parting with too much in a potential trade. Buxton’s prodigious talent and repeated IL stints present the Twins with something of a conundrum, regardless of which path they explore.

Elsewhere on the roster, the Twins could look to capitalize on affordable control and organizational depth. Kepler’s huge 2019 season looks like an outlier at this point, but he’s a terrific defender in right field who can handle center and has 25- to 30-homer pop. He may not be an All-Star, but his blend of walks, power and defense are appealing even if aggressive shifting and an extreme-pull approach will continue to suppress his batting average. With a healthier Kirilloff, a more-experienced Trevor Larnach and the looming debuts of top prospects Lewis and Martin — both can play shortstop and center field — the Twins have some depth to explore outfield trades.

Behind the plate, both Garver and Jeffers have appeal as starting-caliber options. Garver has been one of the game’s most productive offensive catchers since his 2019 breakout (combined .254/.348/.546 slash, 135 wRC+). Jeffers entered the 2021 season as a Top 100 prospect, and while he didn’t hit like he did in his brief 2020 call to the Majors, he’s a strong defender with plenty of pop and untapped potential at the plate. He’s also 24 years old and under club control another five seasons. Garver is controlled through 2023. There’s room for both on the roster, particularly if Garver can spend some additional time at DH. Still, catching-needy clubs with pitching to spare (e.g. the Marlins) will surely be checking in with the Twins.

However the Twins proceed on the trade market, they’ll likely focus on young pitching in return. The trade of Berrios, the injury to Maeda and the potential free-agent departure of Michael Pineda leave the rotation in a threadbare state. Joe Ryan, acquired from the Rays in the Cruz trade, ranks as Baseball America’s No. 91 prospect and posted a 4.05 ERA with a 30-to-5 K/BB ratio in 26 2/3 frames down the stretch. (Ryan also won a Silver Medal with Team USA in this year’s Olympics.) Rookie Bailey Ober had a quietly strong showing, rounding into form after a rough start (3.59 ERA, 20.9 K-BB% through 67 2/3 innings from July 1 onward).

Beyond that pair of promising youngsters, there’s no certainty. That’s in large part due to the fact that the Twins’ injury troubles extended to the upper echelon of their pitching prospects, too. Each of Jhoan Duran, Jordan Balazovic, Matt Canterino and Josh Winder missed time due to injury, as did fifth starter/swingman Randy Dobnak. The club will hope to extract some quality innings from that group, and perhaps Woods Richardson, in 2022.

The lack of current rotation pieces, however, will push the Twins to not only target controllable young arms in trade but also some veterans to plug right into the mix. The offseason trade market will include the likes of Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray — any of whom could appeal to Minnesota. (Castillo and Gray, in particular, have multiple seasons of control remaining.) The Twins also have the means to be active in free agency; it’s just a question of the extent to which they’ll spend.

First and foremost, coming off a disastrous season, the Twins aren’t likely to appeal to a Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander type — an older, high-end free agent seeking to jump right into an obvious contender’s rotation. It’s true that we’ve never seen the Twins sign a free agent for more than Ervin Santana’s four-year, $55MM contract back in 2014, but Minnesota has made $100MM+ offers to both Yu Darvish and Zack Wheeler in the past.

With that in mind, it’s worth taking a quick high-level look at next year’s payroll. Minnesota has just $45.8MM in guaranteed money on the books for 2022. Even after factoring in around $25MM of arbitration salaries and pre-arb players to round out the roster, the Twins will be some $50MM south of their record $129MM payroll. Non-tenders and trades of current players could create further space, but there’s already a good bit of room to spend.

It’d rank as something of an upset if they actually won the bidding on a Robbie Ray, Kevin Gausman or Marcus Stroman, but the Twins at least have the payroll capacity to compete for those types of names. They were reportedly very interested in Stroman at the 2019 deadline, when he was traded to the Mets, and they’d be a plausible landing spot for a free-agent arm who’s still relatively young, such as Eduardo Rodriguez. There’s some mutual interest in a Pineda reunion, and other mid-rotation options include Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood and Jon Gray, among many others. The Twins need at least two, if not three options to stabilize the starting staff this winter.

Looking to the relief corps, things are similarly hazy. Taylor Rogers has been one of the game’s best left-handed relievers in recent years, but he ended the season on the injured list with a sprained ligament in his pitching hand. If the Twins are confident he’ll be good to go come Opening Day, a $6.7MM projected salary is plenty affordable. If there’s more doubt about his health, one can imagine they’ll at least debate whether to tender him a contract.

With Colome’s option being declined and uncertainty about Rogers’ health, the Twins will be on the hunt for an arm or two. The current front office regime has only signed one free-agent reliever to a notable multi-year deal — Addison Reed’s ill-fated two-year, $16.75MM pact — so there’s little chance they’ll play at the top of the market, where Raisel Iglesias should command a three or four-year deal with an eight-figure annual salary. Kendall Graveman, too, could be in position for a three-year pact, but it’s reasonable enough to expect the Twins could be in on just about any other relief arm this winter. History suggests they’re likelier to ink a couple of lower-cost veterans than dole out a hefty two-year deal — perhaps bailing out a reliever whose market didn’t develop as hoped (much like they did with Colome last winter).

Turning to the lineup, the Twins’ bevy of trade possibilities opens the door for any number of free-agent pursuits. They’re a clear fit for a shortstop now that Jorge Polanco has moved to second base and enjoyed a career year there. At the same time, when pitching is such a dire need, it’s worth wondering whether the best use of resources would be to plop down a nine-figure guarantee to one of the market’s top-end shortstops. Minnesota did have interest in Marcus Semien last winter, but there’s a difference between pursuing him as a potential bargain and paying top-of-the-market dollars on a five- or six-year deal this time around.

If Buxton and/or Kepler is moved this winter, the Twins have the payroll space to pivot and bring in a veteran outfielder. Nelson Cruz’s departure could open the door for Minnesota to move Miguel Sano to DH and explore first base options — be it a free agent like Anthony Rizzo or a potential trade candidate such as Luke Voit. Sano himself is a candidate to be shopped, though it’s worth noting that he hit .251/.330/.503 with 21 homers in his final 375 plate appearances. Perhaps it’s just coincidence, but that production began the day after the league’s memo announcing foreign-substance checks for pitchers. It also stands to reason that Minnesota will at least talk to the 40-year-old Cruz about a 2022 return after two and a half very productive years at Target Field.

If all of that seems rather ambiguous, it’s largely a reflection of the nature of the Twins’ current roster. While some of their division rivals have more straightforward paths this winter — the Royals will focus on bullpen help to supplement a young core; the Tigers are going to aggressively pursue a shortstop and a starting pitcher — the Twins are in a different spot. The core that emerged from their last rebuilding process is beginning to turn over, but the farm system is strong enough and the payroll clean enough that another multi-year rebuilding effort doesn’t seem necessary.

Acquiring pitching is likely to be a focal point, but the open-ended nature of the Twins’ lineup gives Falvey, Levine and the rest of the front office the ability to get creative in building out the roster. A straightforward pursuit of rotation help could result in signing multiple veteran free agents, but the Twins could also focus on the trade market for their starting pitching needs and surprise as a landing spot for someone like Rizzo or Trevor Story. Buxton could be traded for even more controllable young talent or signed to serve as a franchise centerpiece in spite of durability concerns. The Twins don’t have to trade Kepler or have to trade a catcher, but other teams will inquire. The possibilities here are much more plentiful than with most clubs, and the reality is that the front office can’t even know for certain how it’ll play out.

It all makes for a fairly fascinating offseason in Minnesota. As was the case with the 2021 trade deadline, Minnesota will be heavily involved in a broad-reaching number of storylines. The Twins might blur the lines between “buyer” and “seller” this offseason, but whatever shape their winter takes, they’ll be active.

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