Archives for December 2020

NL West Notes: Bauer, Giants, D’Backs, Arenado

By Mark Polishuk | December 13, 2020 at 9:04pm CDT

“The Giants have discussed” signing Trevor Bauer, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reports, though this isn’t necessarily indicative of a full-fledged pursuit since “they discuss the top free agents every year.” There are many reasons Bauer would make sense for the Giants, as Shea illustrates in his pros and cons piece, including the point that Bauer might represent a better upgrade than any of the pitching options available in the 2021-22 free agent market.

However, Shea ultimately opines that Bauer wouldn’t be an ideal fit “for a team that’s not close to championship caliber and is waiting for its top prospects to emerge over the next couple of years.” The Giants certainly face an uphill battle in going against the Dodgers and the Padres in their division alone, though since San Francisco has to some extent overachieved over the last two seasons even while overhauling the roster, I would argue that the Giants could position themselves more firmly into the wild card hunt with some pitching upgrades, and Bauer would certainly qualify in that regard. For what it’s worth, Bauer’s most recent YouTube video listed Giants fans fourth on his list of the fanbases that have done the best job of trying to sell him on joining their team.

Quick Hits: Suzuki, Angels, Diamondbacks, Cubs

By Anthony Franco | December 13, 2020 at 4:03pm CDT

The Angels are interested in free agent catcher Kurt Suzuki, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. Los Angeles was in on James McCann before he agreed to terms with the Mets, and it seems the front office is still looking to add to the position. The 37-year-old Suzuki has been an average or better hitter for four consecutive seasons, putting up a cumulative .272/.337/.475 line since the start of 2017. That has helped to offset his subpar pitch framing and arm behind the plate. Suzuki spent the 2017-18 seasons with the Braves; new Angels GM Perry Minasian was in the Atlanta front office for the second of those years. Currently, Max Stassi and Anthony Bemboom stand as the only backstops on the Angels’ 40-man roster.

Some more from around the sport:

Also from Rosenthal, the Diamondbacks are prioritizing bullpen help and are in the market for a right-handed hitting outfielder. That lines up rather directly with the types of players Arizona sold off at last summer’s trade deadline. Starling Marté, Archie Bradley and Andrew Chafin were all sent elsewhere after the D-Backs fell out of the playoff picture. (Bradley and Chafin are now free agents, so nothing prohibits the Arizona front office from pursuing reunions with either player if they’re so inclined). After doling out multi-year deals for Madison Bumgarner, Nick Ahmed and David Peralta last offseason, Arizona doesn’t figure to play at the top of the market this winter, Rosenthal feels. That probably rules out a Liam Hendriks pursuit, but there are plenty of lower-cost relievers available on the open market.
Unsurprisingly, the Cubs are looking to add starting pitching this offseason, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer told reporters (including Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic). There are some question marks behind Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks in the rotation. Alec Mills, Adbert Alzolay and Colin Rea are among a handful of in-house options who could help fill out the back end, but there’s obvious room for an addition or two. Hoyer also pointed out the uncertainty involved with relying on the same five-man rotation throughout 2021 after pitchers’ workloads were curtailed during this past shortened season. Many teams have to rely on eight to ten starters to weather underperformance and/or injuries in a normal season. A 162-game season next year would present its own unique set of workload challenges on top of that typical attrition.

Mets Hire Jared Porter As General Manager

By TC Zencka | December 13, 2020 at 2:35pm CDT

DECEMBER 13: The Mets have officially announced Porter’s hiring as general manager. He signed a four-year contract.

DECEMBER 12: The Mets have focused their search for a new general manager on Arizona Diamondbacks Assistant GM Jared Porter, per MLB Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Porter has been talked about in conjunction with a number of front office openings, including the recent Angels’ opening, for which he was a finalist. Joel Sherman of the New York Post confirms that the Mets are now working to finalize a four-year agreement with Porter (Twitter links). The two sides are merely working out some final details, adds Heyman.

Porter’s background is in professional scouting, though he isn’t limited to any one area in his current role with the Diamondbacks. Prior to joining the Diamondbacks, he was the Director of Professional Scouting for the Cubs for two seasons, a title he held with the Red Sox from 2012 to 2015. Currently, he’s a Senior VP & Assistant GM to Mike Hazen in Arizona, a position he’s held for since just after winning the World Series with the Cubs. Hazen hired Porter in November of 2016.

Porter has contributed to four World Series winners, including a pair of “cursebreakers” in Boston and Chicago. Sherman offers this assessment of Porter: “Reputation as personable, hardworking, scout at heart who knows analytics, not afraid to make decisions. Theo Epstein disciple.” Porter will work closely now with Sandy Alderson to head up the Mets baseball operations department.

Back in 2017, Porter was kind enough to grant an interview to MLBTR, which can be found in two parts: here and here.

Corey Kluber Expected To Throw For Interested Teams

By Anthony Franco | December 13, 2020 at 1:02pm CDT

1:02 pm: Kluber’s first workout is expected to take place in January, hears Rob Bradford of WEEI.

9:14 am: Free agent right-hander Corey Kluber is preparing to throw bullpen sessions for interested teams later this month, reports Buster Olney of ESPN. The 34-year-old began a throwing program in early November on the heels of a second consecutive season marred by injury.

Kluber was limited to just one inning with the Rangers in 2020 after suffering a Grade 2 teres major strain in his throwing shoulder during his first outing. That came after he logged just 35.2 innings in 2019 due to a comebacker that fractured his forearm, ending his season in May. Thanks to Kluber’s recent run of poor health, Texas made the decision to decline his $18MM club option in favor of a $1MM buyout.

So far this offseason, Kluber has drawn some attention from the Red Sox and Twins. It’s fair to presume other clubs will be interested in checking in on his status. Kluber was dominant in 2018, his last full season of work. Given his age, it’d be hard to bank on him again posting Cy Young-caliber production coming off two largely lost years. Nevertheless, plenty of teams could have interest in taking a shot on Kluber as an upside play if he demonstrates much or all of his prior form in the upcoming showcases.

Mets To Hire Dave Jauss As Bench Coach

By Anthony Franco | December 13, 2020 at 12:13pm CDT

The Mets are set to hire Dave Jauss as bench coach, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). He’ll take over for Hensley Meulens, who was let go after just one season in the position.

Jauss, 63, has worked for MLB teams in various capacities since the late 1980’s. He has previously worked as a bench coach for four different franchises, the Mets among them. Jauss was Grady Little’s right-hand man with the Dodgers from 2006-07, then held the same position with the Orioles over the next two seasons. He became the Mets’ bench coach in 2010, working under then-manager Jerry Manuel. Jauss moved into the Mets’ front office in 2011 before returning to the field as a member of the Pirates’ coaching staff from 2012-19. That included another stint as bench coach, as Jauss worked in that role with Clint Hurdle for one season. He spent this past year as a scout in the Yankees’ organization after leaving the Pirates when Hurdle was let go, notes Tim Healey of Newsday.

Jauss’ previous stint in Queens saw him overlap with president of baseball operations Sandy Alderson and manager Luis Rojas. He’ll clearly bring plenty of experience back to the dugout as top lieutenant for the Mets’ second-year skipper.

NPB’s Hanshin Tigers To Re-Sign Robert Suarez

By Anthony Franco | December 13, 2020 at 9:56am CDT

The Hanshin Tigers of Nippon Professional Baseball are re-signing right-hander Robert Suárez, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). Suárez will return to the Nishinomiya-based club in 2021 and has a player option for 2022. Altogether, the deal comes with a guarantee in the $6.75MM range, per Morosi.

A 29-year-old reliever, Suárez has spent the past four seasons at Japan’s highest level. He has a cumulative 3.53 ERA across 142.2 relief innings for the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks and the Tigers. This past season, his first as a Tiger, Suárez logged a 2.24 mark over 52.1 innings, with a solid combination of 8.6 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9.

Suárez has never played affiliated ball in the United States, but he’d drawn some attention from MLB teams this winter on the heels of that strong season, Morosi notes. Instead, he’ll remain with the Tigers, where he figures to again serve as the primary closer for the Central League team.

Vince Velasquez Drawing Trade Interest

By TC Zencka | December 12, 2020 at 10:39pm CDT

Before tendering right-hander Vince Velasquez a contract for the 2021 season, the Phillies received inquires into his availability, according to the Athletic’s Matt Gelb.

There’s no denying that Velasquez has a great arm. Making that arm work for him on the pitching mound has been an up-and-down endeavor for the 28-year-old, however. The six-year veteran is set to make somewhere between $3.8MM and $4.8MM in his final season before free agency – a palatable amount for a rotation arm should the Phillies ultimately decide to move him, especially without the hindrance of a long-term financial commitment.

Whether or not Velazquez qualifies as a rotation arm is a question that the Phillies themselves have waffled on the past couple of seasons. Out of 42 total appearances the last two years, 30 have been starts – but that’s compared to 69 out of 70 from 2016 to 2018.

Inconsistency has, in fact, been the constant for Velazquez. He mixes wipe-out stuff (10.5 K/9 over the last two seasons) with a too-high walk rate (9.1 BB%) and year-to-year arsenal uncertainty. His 93-94 mph fastball more-or-less sets the tone, but deciding on a second-best offering has been somewhat of a rollercoaster.

His slider, for example, had largely been an effective, if judicious selection for him his first few years in the rotation, but as it gained traction volume-wise, hitters took it to the tune of a .407 wOBA in 2019. His changeup, meanwhile, had fallen almost out of his arsenal entirely in 2018 and 2019 before finding its way back into the mix last season, when he threw it 14.3% of the time and limited hitters to a 26.7 HardHit%. He throws a sinker, sparingly, but it’s been thumped – except in 2016 and 2020 when it registered a .298 wOBA and 243 wOBA, respectively.

All in all, Velasquez has been good for roughly 1.3 bWAR per 150 innings over his Phillies tenure – though 146 2/3 innings in 2018 mark a career high. Still, he owns a 4.33 FIP and 4.21 xFIP, as well as an exactly-league-average 100 FIP- for his career. Even that, however, doesn’t really tell the tale, as he’s alternated above-average seasons and below-average seasons by that mark since joining Philadelphia’s rotation: 94, 125, 90, 115, and 91 from 2016 to 2020.

That there’s interest in Velasquez is hardly surprising. But pinning his value to the wall is difficult. To summarize: on average, he’s an average ML arm that manifests as either 9-10% better or 15-25% worse than average.

As of right now, he figures to start the 2021 season right back in the Philly rotation behind Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, and Zach Eflin, right alongside rookie Spencer Howard. Rumor is there’s a new decision-maker in town, however, as well as a new pitching coach, so this is their puzzle to solve.

MLBTR Poll: Forecasting The Dave Dombrowski Era In Philadelphia

By TC Zencka | December 12, 2020 at 8:51pm CDT

After a bit of uncertainty, the Phillies hired the guy they wanted as the first-ever president of baseball operations in team history – and he just so happens to be the only GM ever to take three different teams to the World Series. Dave Dombrowski now aims to take a two-point lead on that score in Philadelphia. To his own admission, however, “no one thinks the Phillies are one player away.” So there’s work to do. What that means exactly makes for the nebulous, but substantive difference between Dombrowski and the what-might-have-been “other” guy.

The immediate assumption has been that Dombrowski’s appointment portends aggressive spending – either of dollars in free agency or of prospects via trades. Dombrowski has a reputation as a wheeler-and-dealer, and after three consecutive seasons of floating around .500, there’s some urgency to improve, directed largely by managing partner John Middleton. It doesn’t take a genius to put two and two together.

And yet, Dombrowski himself took a more measured stance in his first press conference with reporters yesterday. So, too, did Middleton and team president Andy MacPhail. As I wrote yesterday, a focus on system building rather than immediate contention during his introduction speaks volumes about the level of self-awareness inside Philadelphia’s leadership group. While they’re not going to disappear immediately into the mud, don’t wait for J.T. Realmuto to come waltzing in the door behind Dombrowski either.

As for the new headmaster, he’s taking some time to get to know his new operation. It’s going to be a lot of sleepless nights in the coming weeks as he makes his first moves in office, such as deciding whether or not to hire a general manager. Though there’s a lot of work to do, Middleton, Dombrowski, and the Phillies seem a harmonious fit. You can add manager Joe Girardi to that group as well, whose old-school blood hasn’t kept him from recognizing important evolutions in the game – much like Dombrowski. No, they’re not the poster-children for the sabremetric, biomechanic, new-school evangelists, but they’re hepper to what’s wise in this game than it may seem.

It’s time for you to weigh in. Dombrowski is said to have signed a four-year deal, so let’s keep our prognostication to that time frame. Say that at the end of these four years, coronavirus is a thing of the past, the MLB Draft League has ballooned interest in the sport, expansion is an inevitability, and Dombrowski wants to return to Nashville to run the Music City Stars. How are we going to feel about the Dombrowski era in Philly? Just for fun, let’s frame out answers in the form of Phillies of the past. Feel free to add your own in the comments. (Poll links for app users.)

Quick Hits: Tigers, Turner, Rays, Archer, Dodgers, McCullough

By TC Zencka | December 12, 2020 at 6:40pm CDT

Tigers GM Al Avila wants to remain patient and disciplined this winter when it comes to augmenting their young core through free agency, writes Chris McCosky of the Detroit News. Detroit will look to add a catcher, corner outfielder and first baseman, as well as a pitcher or two – but all in due time. Detroit hasn’t posted a winning record since 2016, and they haven’t reached the postseason since a four-year run ended in 2015. Those playoff teams, of course, were led by formidable pitching staffs that included Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello, Anibal Sanchez, and others, as well as an all-time bat in Miguel Cabrera still in his prime. These Tigers don’t yet have that kind of offensive force, but they’ve begun to graduate some of their highly-touted arms, such as Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal. For now, let’s take Avila’s lead and not get too far ahead of ourselves. Elsewhere…

Justin Turner is seeking a three-year deal, per Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. That might be a tough sell for the 36-year-old. Three years might be the ask for Turner, who is represented by GEM Agency, but it’s just as likely a starting point to give their side some wiggle room in negotiations. That said, Turner was a central piece for the World Series champs, slashing .307/.400/.460 across 175 plate appearances in 2020. That’s good for a 140 wRC+. The immediate concern, rather, relates to his viability at third base that far into the future. His glovework earned marks of -2 OAA in 2020 and -1 DRS, both of which are palatable marks. But if there’s significant regression coming for Turner, the glove is where to look first. Regardless, for those clubs looking to add an impact bat in 2021, there aren’t many better than Turner.
The Rays have discussed the possibility of a reunion with Chris Archer, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Given the Rays’ tendency to limit starter innings, they need the whole of the staff to be capable of soaking up innings. Archer could certainly help in that regard. Besides, if anyone knows what Archer is capable of, it would be Tampa Bay. For the present, however, the Rays are focused on players who might accept minor league contracts. The payroll likely is what it is, notes Topkin, meaning that if they’re going to add much in the way of salary, we should expect a matching expulsion. They need a catcher, of course, probably a couple, and more generally, GM Erik Neander wants the club to make more contact.
Clayton McCullough will replace George Lombard as the first base coach for the Dodgers, per J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group (via Twitter). Lombard was named A.J. Hinch’s new bench coach in Detroit. The rest of the Dodgers’ coaching staff from 2020 are returning. McCullough has been with the Dodgers for seven seasons, serving recently as minor league field coordinator. Prior to joining the Dodgers, he managed at a number of different levels in the Blue Jays’ system.

Angels Notes: Watson, Royals, McCann, Rojas

By Mark Polishuk | December 12, 2020 at 3:59pm CDT

Gene Watson is leaving the Royals for the Angels’ front office, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link). Watson will be a special advisor to new Angels GM Perry Minasian, according to Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register, and The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya recently chronicled Watson’s longstanding ties to Minasian dating back to Minasian’s childhood.

Watson has spent the last 14 seasons with the Royals, the last three as the team’s senior director of pro scouting and a special assistant to GM Dayton Moore. Watson previously worked as a scout with the Padres, Braves, and Marlins before coming to Kansas City, and his long career as a respected evaluator put him on the radar for general manager openings in the past. Of greatest relevance, Watson interviewed for the Angels’ job before Minasian was hired, and Watson also spoke with the Astros about their GM vacancy last offseason.

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