Archives for May 2020

Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball Sets June 19 Opening Day

By Steve Adams | May 25, 2020 at 9:00am CDT

Baseball is set to return in Japan. As Kaz Nagatsuka of the Japan Times reports, Nippon Professional Baseball commissioner Atsushi Saito announced Monday that the league plans to kick off its regular season on June 19 — nearly three months after the originally scheduled March 20 date. As has been the case in Taiwan and South Korea, where their top leagues are already underway, games will begin without fans in attendance. NPB teams will aim to play 120 games in their condensed season, which represents a reduction from the 143-game norm.

NPB has yet to formally release its schedule or its health/safety guidelines, although Saito made clear that the Japan Series — NPB’s championship series — will still be held. Other changes to the postseason format in Japan’s 12-team league are still possible, although commissioner Saito indicated the matter is still being discussed. Eliminating extra-inning play in 2020 is also under discussion, per Saito. (Ties are already possible in NPB in games that remain a stalemate through 12 innings.)

NPB has terminated interleague play between the Pacific League and the Central League in 2020, per Nagatsuka, and the schedule is expected to have other alterations aimed at lowering the risk of potential COVID-19 infections among players, staff and other gameday personnel. And while NPB will formally begin a new training camp that runs June 2-14, Nagatsuka adds that teams are already beginning intrasquad games at their home parks in an effort to build back up. The SoftBank Hawks and Orix Buffaloes are among the teams that have already begun to do so.

After announcing back on March 9 that the season opener would be delayed, NPB had targeted April 24 as a potential start date. However, by the end of March, league officials were already casting doubt on the feasibility of that plan. By April 8, NPB had announced that Opening Day was further delayed — this time indefinitely. No dates or plans were made public until today’s announcement from the league.

On the one hand, its encouraging for MLB fans to see another top-level professional league preparing to resume play, as it gives hope that Major League Baseball won’t be far behind. On the other hand, the fact that defined dates for a new training camp and season opener have been put forth to fans even as NPB continues to discuss some of the finer details is a reminder that other leagues don’t face the type of tension between ownership and labor that exists in MLB. It’s been clear for weeks now that MLB’s hope is to relaunch training games in mid-June with an eye toward an early July start, but MLB owners and the MLB Players Association have yet to agree to terms on health/safety protocols or on player compensation in a truncated 2020 campaign.

The MLBPA responded to MLB’s initial health and safety proposal late last week. MLB has yet to make an economic proposal to the union after MLBPA executive director Tony Clark wholly rejected the idea of a 50-50 revenue share before MLB could even formally present the offer. A new economic plan will reportedly be proposed to the union tomorrow.

The Indians Continue To Benefit From The Bartolo Colon Trade

By Mark Polishuk | May 24, 2020 at 10:40pm CDT

Today is Bartolo Colon’s 47th birthday, and I think I join just about every baseball fan in hoping that “Big Sexy” can fulfill his goal of making it back to the majors for one more go-around. While that extra year would be a nice bonus, Colon has already established an incredible legacy over his 21 MLB seasons, with a list of memories ranging from his 2005 AL Cy Young Award to perhaps the most popular home run of the decade. Colon has accomplished so much since he first broke into the bigs with the Indians at age 24….and yet though it has been close to 18 years since he last donned a Cleveland uniform, the Tribe continues to benefit from Colon’s time with the franchise.

Let’s flash back to 2002. After establishing himself as a solid member of the rotation during his first five seasons, Colon was on pace for his lowest ERA yet, as he had posted a 2.55 mark over his first 16 starts and 116 1/3 innings of the 2002 campaign. (Even if a 3.75 FIP indicates that Colon was perhaps somewhat fortunate to manage that 2.55 ERA.) The downside was that that the Indians were struggling, as the club was preparing for a rebuild after its long run of winning seasons and frequent playoff appearances from 1994-2001. That made Colon expendable, and the righty was dealt to the Montreal Expos in a blockbuster trade near the end of June.

While Colon pitched well for the Expos, they came up short in their bid for the postseason in what ended up being their third-to-last year in Montreal. With the Expos controlled by Major League Baseball at the time and rumors swirling that a new owner would likely move the team, then-general manager Omar Minaya decided that a bold move was necessary to try and reinvigorate both Montreal fans and potential local investors.

As such, Minaya threw all caution to the wind in sending a four-player package of Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips, and Lee Stevens to Cleveland in exchange for Colon’s services. The veteran Stevens (who didn’t play in the big leagues again after the 2002 season) was something of a throw-in, but let’s look at the other three Expos prospects obtained….

Phillips: The second baseman didn’t break out and reach his All-Star form until after he was dealt to the Reds in April 2006, though indirectly, Phillips helped the Indians land Chris Perez. Phillips went to Cincinnati for righty Jeff Stevens, who was dealt in December 2008 as part of a three-player package (that also included Chris Archer) to the Cubs for Mark DeRosa. Cleveland sent DeRosa to the Cardinals in June 2009 for a player to be named later and Perez, who recorded 124 saves and reached two All-Star games over his four-plus seasons with the Tribe.

Sizemore: The Indians received a more direct contribution from Sizemore, as the center fielder soon blossomed into one of the game’s better all-around players. Sizemore hit .281/.372/.496 from 2005-08, with the fourth-most fWAR (27.3) of any player in baseball during that four-year stretch. Unfortunately for both Sizemore and the Indians, injuries curtailed what was looking like a special career, and Sizemore played only 419 games total from 2009-15.

Lee: The southpaw’s 182-game tenure in Cleveland had its ups and downs, though he saved the best for last with an outstanding 2008 season. Lee won the AL Cy Young Award by leading the league in ERA (2.54), ERA+ (167), BB/9 (1.4), and HR/9 (0.5), while also tossing 223 1/3 innings.

He continued to pitch well into the 2009 season, which leads us to the next offshoot of the Colon trade: the deal that sent Lee to the Phillies at the 2009 trade deadline. Cleveland picked up another four-player package, this time consisting of Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, Lou Marson, and minor league righty Jason Knapp. Baseball America ranked Carrasco, Donald, and Marson within their top 100 prospects list prior to the 2009 season, and Knapp made the 2010 list, though Knapp never ended up reaching the big leagues. Marson ended up playing 261 games in the Show (253 as a part-time catcher for the Indians), hitting .219/.309/.299 over a career that stretched across six seasons.

The other two pieces of the trade went on to become noteworthy parts of Cleveland baseball history…

Carrasco: The man they call “Cookie” is still on the Tribe’s roster, evolving from prospect to a stalwart member of the rotation. Beyond his contributions on the field, Carrasco has become a popular leader both in the Indians’ clubhouse and around the sport, as witnessed by the outpouring of support he received last season while battling (and ultimately returning from) a leukemia diagnosis.

Donald: After posting a .672 OPS over 603 plate appearances and 170 games with the Indians from 2010-12, Donald never again played in the Majors. Since perhaps his most memorable baseball moment was his (ahem) infield single to break up Armando Galarraga’s would-be perfect game in June 2010, you may wonder why Donald merits a “noteworthy” designation.

In short, it’s because Donald was part of one of Cleveland’s most memorable trades of the decade. Granted, nobody refers to the three-team deal between the Indians, Reds, and Diamondbacks in December 2012 as “the Jason Donald trade” given the other big names (namely Shin-Soo Choo and Didi Gregorius) involved. That said, given the complexity of such multi-team swaps, perhaps the whole negotiation would have fallen apart if the Tribe hadn’t agreed to send Donald to Cincinnati.

Even if Donald didn’t play a headline role in the exchange, the main point is that the Indians received another four-player package on their end of the trade: Trevor Bauer, Matt Albers, Bryan Shaw, and Drew Stubbs. Albers pitched well out of the Tribe’s bullpen in 2013 before departing in free agency. Stubbs only spent one year in Cleveland before being traded to Colorado in December 2013 for Josh Outman, who gave the Indians 24 2/3 relief innings of 3.28 ERA ball before being swapped to the Yankees for cash considerations. Looking at the other two names…

Shaw: The biggest bullpen reinforcement of the group, Shaw became a workhorse of a setup man from 2013-17. Three times a league-leader in appearances during that five-year stretch, Shaw posted a 3.11 ERA, 8.4 K/9, and 2.8 K/BB rate over 358 2/3 frames in Cleveland.

Bauer: The right-hander was no stranger to controversy over his six-plus seasons with the Indians, though he developed from solid starter to an ace in 2018, posting a 2.21 ERA over 175 1/3 innings and finishing sixth in AL Cy Young voting. Somewhat similar to Lee’s situation, Bauer continued to pitch well enough into the next season that he became part of a major pre-deadline trade.

This three-team swap is a bit fresher in our memory banks, but as a reminder, the Padres, Reds, and Indians combined on a blockbuster that saw Bauer go to Cincinnati while top Reds outfield prospect Taylor Trammell went to San Diego. The other five players involved in the trade all went to the Indians: Yasiel Puig, Franmil Reyes, and prospects Logan Allen, Scott Moss, and Victor Nova.

The “Wild Horse” has already come and gone from Cleveland, as Puig departed for free agency and was still looking for a new team prior to the league-wide transactions freeze. Acquired to help offset salary and add some pop to the ever-shifting Tribe outfield, Puig hit pretty well during his brief stint with the Indians, slashing .297/.377/.423 over 207 PA, though he managed only two home runs (as opposed to his 22 in 404 PA with the Reds). Nova is a 20-year-old rookie ball prospect, while MLB Pipeline ranks Moss ranks 18th among all Indians prospects and projects him as a possible back-of-the-rotation starter if he can harness his control. As for the other two…

Allen: Going into 2019 as a consensus top-100 prospect in baseball, Allen badly struggled at the Triple-A level last year. His hopes at a rebound have been hampered the possibility that the minor league season could be canceled entirely, though Allen could potentially find a role on the 20-player taxi squad backing up an expanded 30-player Cleveland roster. The southpaw was badly hurt by home runs last season, so the Tribe hope that getting more used to the livelier ball will help Allen get back on track.

Reyes: The 24-year-old slugger got off to a slow start after the trade to Cleveland, but recovered to hit .237/.304/.468 with 10 homers over 194 PA in an Indians uniform. Reyes will now have to cut down on the strikeouts and become a bit more of a well-rounded hitter in order to fully unlock the hitting potential that is clearly evident from his power numbers.

So to recap, trading Colon in 2002 has led to five current members of the Indians organization. Over those 18 years since the Expos trade, dealing Colon also directly and indirectly led to a Cy Young Award winner (Lee), another starter with at least one Cy Young-caliber campaign (Bauer), two relievers who delivered consistent results over multiple seasons (Shaw and Perez), four years from an MVP candidate (Sizemore), and other small contributions from a host of other players. This group all contributed to at least one of the Tribe’s five postseason appearances from 2007-18, and the club now hopes that Carrasco, Reyes, Allen, and company can call be part of Cleveland’s next playoff team.

That adds up to at least two windows of contention, and who knows if future trades or transactions could spin some of those current players on the roster into even bigger contributors down the road. While the Indians have already gotten so much in return from that 2002 deal, as with seemingly all things involving Bartolo Colon, you never know when another delightful surprise could emerge.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Latest On Negotiations To Begin 2020 Season

By Mark Polishuk | May 24, 2020 at 9:01pm CDT

As talks continue about the possibility of the 2020 season getting underway, “the greatest differences between the players and owners, for now, remain economic,” Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich of The Athletic (subscription required) write in their latest update on the status of the negotiations. While nothing concrete has been established between the two sides, June 1 is seen as “an informal deadline for negotiations to be completed if the season is to start by early July.”

On Tuesday, the league will present the MLB Players Association with a proposal for how finances and revenues will be divvied up over a shortened 2020 schedule. Rosenthal and Drellich hear from sources that the owners’ reported original desire for a 50/50 revenue split will not be included in this proposal, though owners will still seek to reduce player salaries in some fashion, as per Major League Baseball’s claim that paying prorated player salaries while still hosting games without any fans in attendance would result in a loss of over $4 billion in free cash flow.

That $4 billion figure was delivered as part of a financial document presented to the MLBPA over a week ago, which naturally resulted in the union requesting for the league to back up this claim with more paperwork and documentation. According to Rosenthal and Drellich, the league provided the players with some but not all of the requested information this past Friday. It isn’t clear whether the documentation provided will be sufficient for the MLBPA, or whether there is enough time for the union’s analysts to properly access the league’s financial claims by the informal June 1 deadline.

At least one agent, Seth Levinson of the ACES agency, believes “there isn’t sufficient time,” and that “MLB doesn’t just seek further salary reductions from the players but also their blind faith” that the losses will be as steep as the league suggests. Levinson also added that “any agreement must protect the players heading into 2021,” as several agents are concerned that the loss of 2020 revenues will result in a crunch for free agents and arbitration-eligible players in the 2020-21 offseason. To this end, Rosenthal and Drellich write that some agents might prefer some manner of “financial protection for players this offseason” in exchange for players agreeing to accept less than their prorated salaries for 2020 games.

These longer-term issues add another layer of difficult to the talks between Major League Baseball and the players’ union. The majority of current negotiations are centered around the 2020 season first and foremost, and there are already enough logistical hurdles (both financial and health/safety related) yet to be cleared that it seems difficult at first glance to imagine an agreement being reached by June 1. That said, the June 1 date only applies to the rumored early-July start date for an 82-game season, so everything could be pushed back or reduced. The length of the regular season, Rosenthal and Drellich note, is another possible negotiating point between players and owners: “The league also prefers a shorter schedule to enhance the chances of playing the postseason, when greater revenues are assured.”

MLBTR Chat Transcript

By Mark Polishuk | May 24, 2020 at 8:03pm CDT

Click here to read the transcript of tonight’s baseball chat, moderated by MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk

Let’s Not Forget About Franchy Cordero

By George Miller | May 24, 2020 at 4:47pm CDT

With high-profile signings like Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado and a superlative farm system that has produced standout rookies like Chris Paddack and Fernando Tatis Jr., the Padres have begun to return to relevancy after a stretch of seasons spent in baseball’s doldrums. More eyes are trained on the team now than maybe any point in the last decade, and onlookers have begun to expect results.

As such, the majority of the attention goes to the likes of Machado and Tatis—rightfully so—leaving other players in their shadow. One forgotten Padre could be key in their 2020 campaign: after elbow and quad injuries have limited him to just 49 games over the last two seasons, it’s easy to discount Franchy Cordero among the Padres’ core of young players. We’ve seen glimpses of his potential since he debuted in 2017, but we’ve yet to get a real extended look at him in the Majors, leaving us uncertain about the player he will be at his peak.

In parts of three seasons at the MLB level, Cordero has appeared in just 79 games and made 273 scattered plate appearances. That’s still a decent amount of exposure for a 25-year-old, but when it comes in bits and pieces rather than extended stretches, it makes it especially difficult to draw conclusions about who Cordero really is and will be as a player.

That said, there’s no doubt that he boasts a rare combination of power and speed that makes him a tantalizing player. Per Statcast measurements, his sprint speed has ranked in the top 11% of MLBers in each of the last three years. That alone is pretty impressive for a player of Cordero’s stature (6’3″, 175 lbs.), but it’s even cooler when you consider that in 2018, Cordero’s average exit velocity was 92.6 mph, which equals the numbers put up by Matt Chapman and Jorge Soler last year (granted, Cordero did so with very few batted balls, so the usual sample size concerns apply).

Those tools are fun—that much is undeniable. The numbers above point to something special, and they’re indicative of the superlative talent that could make Cordero a premier player in his prime years. But there’s a big difference between being a premier player and merely possessing awesome talent; plenty of athletic outliers have failed to grow into productive Major Leaguers. If Cordero is to solidify himself as a reliable regular in the Majors, he’ll need to develop a more well-rounded game. For one thing, his approach at the plate still leaves something to be desired: his strikeout rate (38.8% for his career) remains too high, especially given his unspectacular walk rate (8.8% career).

That’s a ubiquitous challenge for young players, and it’s something that is often tempered with sustained exposure to MLB pitching. Plenty of players succeed with high strikeout rates—especially those with prodigious power like Cordero—so it won’t take a complete transformation of Cordero’s skillset to unlock his next level. I’d argue that it comes down mostly to opportunity, and a regular role could do wonders for his development.

The Padres’ outfield mix will be a little crowded as it is, with the additions of Tommy Pham and Trent Grisham likely representing two Opening Day starters. Cordero can certainly compete for the third spot, but he’ll have to overtake Wil Myers for the job. He probably fits best in right field, but has played plenty of center field in his career. Regardless, Cordero is firmly among the four best outfielders on the roster and should therefore have a path to more at-bats, assuming he’s healthy. Anyway, if the NL plays the 2020 season with a designated hitter, there should be ample opportunity to get Cordero’s bat in the lineup one way or another.

Whereas in previous years Cordero has been an intriguing, if still mysterious, piece on some fun Padres teams, he now has a chance to be a real contributor on a team that hopes to be taken more seriously. Without a doubt, he’s a player that deserves attention; we’ll eagerly watch this year to see whether a consistent role will allow Cordero to make adjustments that bring him a step closer to stardom. Don’t be surprised if Cordero’s name becomes more familiar to baseball fans.

Shutdown Notes: Undrafted Players, Pitcher Usage, Blue Jays

By Anthony Franco | May 24, 2020 at 11:38am CDT

As MLB prepares its proposal to the MLBPA on economics issues next Tuesday, let’s take a look at some other notes related to the league’s shutdown.

In the wake of massive revenue losses, MLB has instituted a five round draft in 2020, down from its usual forty, with undrafted players’ signing bonuses capped at $20K. Limiting the selection pool will no doubt push many talented prep prospects to college, but it could also spur some to take a less traditional route. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe argues the shortened draft and spending limits could push some undrafted players to pursue immediate pro opportunities in Japan or South Korea, where their earning potential would be significantly higher. Indeed, at least one team in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball is already preparing for an unusually high volume of undrafted talent, Speier reports. Such a move wouldn’t be entirely without precedent. Right-hander Carter Stewart signed a six-year deal with NPB’s Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks in lieu of reentering the MLB draft after medical issues derailed his talks with the Braves, who had selected him in the first round out of high school in 2018.
More from Speier, who also examines the potential repercussions of the shutdown on pitcher usage this season. He spoke with Dr. Christopher Ahmad, who warned earlier this month that play stoppages at all levels could lead to a spike in Tommy John surgeries if pitchers attempt to ramp back up too quickly. Ahmad reiterated to Speier that the risks may not be as prevalent for MLB players, whose personal training has been better regimented and supervised remotely by club staff, than they are for amateur players who have had less oversight in recent months. Nevertheless, MLB players won’t be immune from consequences if the league is able to return. An abbreviated Spring Training 2.0 and likely expansion of rosters will cause teams to curtail their pitchers’ workloads whenever possible, Speier feels.
Yesterday, the Blue Jays guaranteed their employees there would be no furloughs or layoffs through at least October 1. Team president Mark Shapiro tells John Lott of the Athletic the organization’s ability to keep people on-board enables them to deploy staff in unconventional ways. Most notably, minor-league coaches and analysts, who in a normal setting would have daily gameday responsibilities, have been brought into the Blue Jays’ draft process this year. Those coaches and player development staff have taken on a larger than normal role in evaluating potential selections’ mechanics and projections, Shapiro tells Lott.

The Blockbuster That Brought The Tigers Their Most Valuable Trade Chip

By Anthony Franco | May 24, 2020 at 9:46am CDT

The Blue Jays were the talk of the 2015 trade deadline. A few days after bringing in star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki from the Rockies, the Jays struck for the top rental starting pitcher on the market: Tigers’ left-hander David Price. Amidst a seven-year run of pristine durability and general excellence, 2015 was perhaps Price’s peak season. At the time of the deal, he was sitting on a 2.53 ERA over 146 innings.

It was a fascinating swap for a number of reasons. The 52-51 Jays were only 1.5 games above the Tigers in the standings, making the organizations’ decisions to take diverging approaches at the deadline particularly interesting. At the time, Fangraphs gave the talented, but to that point underperforming, Toronto club a 48.9% shot of reaching the postseason, while the Tigers’ playoff odds sat at a lowly 9.7%. In that context, it makes sense then-Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopolous considered the time right to push his chips in; it’s equally sensible then-Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski pivoted his organization toward a rebuild.

Just as notable was the steep acquisition cost. The Jays sent the Tigers a trio of left-handed pitching prospects, led by Daniel Norris, who had entered that season as Baseball America’s #18 overall prospect. He’d had some strike-throwing issues in the minors, but Norris looked the part of a potential power mid-rotation starter.

Unfortunately, Norris has never really made good on that immense promise. In four-plus seasons in Detroit, the former second-rounder has a cumulative 4.56 ERA/4.41 FIP in 396.1 innings. His once-dominant stuff has waxed and waned in that time. Norris quietly had a strong second half in 2019, particularly after being limited to three innings per start in August. Perhaps there’s hope yet for the 27-year-old to find his niche.

Even if Norris hasn’t turned out the way Detroit fans may have envisioned, the Tigers have gotten plenty of long-term value from the Price deal. Matthew Boyd was arguably viewed as the third piece at the time, behind Norris and Jairo Labourt. (Labourt, then a well-regarded low minors starter, never panned out, even after moving to the bullpen). Boyd had already reached the majors but was viewed as a back-of-the-rotation type. Suffice it to say most didn’t envision him emerging as one of the game’s premier strikeout artists, but that’s exactly what he did in 2019. Among pitchers with at least 100 innings, Boyd ranked thirteenth in strikeout rate (30.2%) while maintaining his long-lauded control (6.2% walk rate).

Boyd’s 4.56 ERA didn’t match up with those strong peripherals, mostly due to an abundance of home runs. Indeed, he’s a fly ball pitcher who may always serve up a few too many longballs to be a top-of-the-rotation arm. As much as any pitcher in baseball, Boyd could stand to benefit if the ball is less lively than it has been in recent seasons. More than ever, though, teams covet pitchers with swing-and-miss stuff. Between his four-seamer and slider, Boyd has a pair of bat-missing weapons.

With the Tigers yet to emerge from the rebuild the Price trade symbolically kicked off, Boyd himself could be on the move in the near future. Detroit didn’t actively look to trade him last offseason, but the club also seems unlikely to contend by 2022, his final season of team control. He’ll no doubt pique contending teams’ interest and would bring back a much stronger return than his ERA might otherwise suggest.

As for the Jays, their story has been told many times, although their fans may not mind hearing it once more. They stormed back in the second half, not only securing a playoff berth but erasing a seven-game deficit to win the AL East. Toronto knocked off the Rangers in the ALDS that year in one of the more memorable series in recent history. Their magical second-half run came to an end in the ALCS at the hands of the eventual World Series champion Royals. Price was instrumental to that success, tossing 74.1 innings of 2.30 ERA ball in the season’s final two months. He parlayed his longtime excellence into a seven year, $217MM deal with the Red Sox that offseason.

All told, the trade looks like a win for both sides. The Blue Jays got an elite two months from an ace to help propel them to a division title. The Tigers have gotten plenty of valuable innings over the longer term. Indeed, they got their high strikeout, mid-rotation southpaw out of the deal, even if it wasn’t the player anyone expected to it be.

AL East Notes: Paxton, Rays, Iglesias, Martin

By Mark Polishuk | May 23, 2020 at 9:16pm CDT

After undergoing back surgery in early February, Yankees southpaw James Paxton was given a timeline of three-to-four months before he could return to the field. As we approach the end of that estimated recovery period, Paxton described his back as “a non-issue” in an interview Friday on the YES Network (hat tip to ESPN.com). “I feel totally healthy, so I’ll be ready to go as soon as the season comes about….I think I’m back to full strength,” Paxton said, noting that he has already thrown an estimated 12-14 bullpen sessions.

If there is any silver lining for the Yankees in this league-wide shutdown, the lack of game action has allowed several injured Yankees to recover without missing any time. As such, should the 2020 season begin in early July as rumored, New York could have Paxton, Giancarlo Stanton, and possibly Aaron Judge and Aaron Hicks all available for the roster. It will be a particularly important season for Paxton, who is scheduled to hit free agency this winter and projects to be one of the top starters available on the open market. While the back surgery only adds to Paxton’s not-insubstantial injury history, a big performance in whatever consists of a 2020 season would certainly help Paxton’s case at a healthy multi-year contract in the offseason.

Have The Royals Found Another Rule 5 Gem?

By Mark Polishuk | May 23, 2020 at 7:30pm CDT

After selecting Joakim Soria out of the Padres’ farm system in the 2006 Rule 5 Draft, it could be argued that the Royals are still in the “playing with house money” honeymoon phase of the Rule 5 process. After all, even landing a Rule 5 player who can stick on a Major League roster for an entire season is a success, never mind landing a two-time All-Star like Soria through his 2007-11 heyday as Kansas City’s closer.

Eleven years after drafting Soria, it seems like the Royals again struck gold via the Rule 5 process. While Brad Keller has yet to reach All-Star levels, the right-hander has already enjoyed enough success over his first two MLB seasons that he looks like a solid building block for a young K.C. team.

Keller was an eighth-round pick for the Diamondbacks in the 2013 draft, and through five pro seasons had compiled some decent but unspectacular numbers in the Arizona farm system. Over 130 1/3 innings for Double-A Jackson in 2017, Keller posted a 4.68 ERA, 7.6 K/9, and 1.95 K/BB rate, which wasn’t quite good enough for him to make the grade amidst something of a 40-man roster crunch for the D’Backs.

Coming off a 93-win season and a NLDS appearance in 2017, the Diamondbacks were focused on using much of their available 40-man spaces on players who could potentially provide immediate help in 2018, as GM Mike Hazen explained to the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro two years ago. “Our scouts liked [Keller]. We liked him,” Hazen said. “We made the conscious decision not to add him because of where he was in proximity to the Major League team, where we were in the cycle, what we wanted to use our 40-man spots for, we wanted to be aggressive in the offseason in claiming guys…that were closer to the big leagues in our mind.”

So, the D’Backs left Keller unprotected in December 2017 draft, and it didn’t take long for another team to pounce on the right-hander. However, that other team wasn’t actually the Royals, whose spot in the Rule 5 draft order didn’t fall until the #18 spot that year. Instead it was the Reds who took Keller with the fifth pick, and then promptly dealt him to Kansas City for cash considerations. (The Royals swung a similar move just one pick later, acquiring sixth pick Burch Smith for cash from the Mets after New York selected Smith out of Tampa Bay’s farm system.)

Smith also ended up spending the entire 2018 season on the K.C. roster, though he was cut loose after posting a 6.92 ERA over 78 innings. Keller, on the other hand, was much more of an immediate success. After posting a 2.01 ERA over his first 22 1/3 frames of work out of Kansas City’s bullpen in 2018, Keller was promoted to the rotation and continued to succeed. The righty had a 3.28 ERA over his 20 starts, striking out 83 batters (against 43 walks) over 118 innings.

Keller’s sophomore year wasn’t quite as impressive, though he still managed a quite respectable 4.19 ERA, 1.74 K/BB, and 6.6 K/9 over 165 1/3 frames, all as a member of the Royals rotation. It could be argued that Keller was perhaps fortunate to manage that 4.19 mark, as some ERA predictors (4.94 xFIP, 5.23 SIERA) were significantly higher, and batters made much more solid contract off him in 2019 than in 2018. The Statcast metrics also took a dim view of Keller’s 2019 performance, with a whole lot of blue — as in, below-average — numbers for Keller in comparison to other pitchers in exit velocity, xwOBA, strikeout percentage, and several other categories.

That said, advanced metrics don’t tend to favor low-strikeout hurlers like Keller who specialize in keeping the ball on the ground. Among pitchers with at least 300 innings tossed over the last two seasons, Keller has the lowest (8.4%) home run rate in baseball, and the second-highest (52%) grounder rate. These outstanding numbers are particularly valuable in this era of the lively ball, and Keller could further benefit from some improved defense behind him, should Maikel Franco provide any sort of upgrade at third base.

All told, 4.8 fWAR over two seasons already represents a very nice return on the Royals’ initial minor cash outlay to Cincinnati. Keller doesn’t turn 25 until July, and he doesn’t reach arbitration eligibility until this coming offseason, putting him under the Royals’ control through the 2023 campaign. Under normal circumstances, Keller could be a player the Royals might have already locked up to a contract extension, and while all extension talks are halted under the current transactions freeze, it wouldn’t be a surprise if K.C. began some talks with Keller’s representatives once regular business gets back underway.

While truly major Rule 5 Draft success stories are relatively few and far between these days, a team only needs to hit on one pick to make the enterprise worthwhile. Finding a big league talent for virtually nothing is a win for any team, and if that talent is a mid-20’s starting pitcher who looks like he can hang in at least the middle of a big league rotation, the Royals got a valuable boost to their latest rebuilding effort.

MLB Will Propose Financial Plan To Players On Tuesday

By Jeff Todd | May 23, 2020 at 6:15pm CDT

TODAY: Though the league’s proposal is still days away, there is “more optimism” that a deal can be reached to launch the 2020 season, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter links). While many details still stand in the way of an agreement, both the league and the MLBPA are aware of the stakes, both the financial cost if no games are played, as well as the “understanding on both sides what cancellation of [the] season would do to” damage baseball as a whole. To this end, Heyman writes that the “belief is, both sides will compromise” in some fashion from their current positions — the owners’ desire for a 50/50 revenue split and the players’ desire for prorated salaries.

MAY 22: There’s been an awful lot of debate surrounding the financials of a prospective 2020 MLB campaign, but the league has yet to issue a formal proposal to the MLB Players Association. That will finally take place on Tuesday, per Evan Drellich of The Athletic (via Twitter).

What isn’t yet known is just what sort of concept the league will ultimately put in front of the players. Prior talk of a 50/50 revenue-sharing plan for salaries was met with quite some angst from the labor perspective. That set off a round of bizarre debate regarding the meaning of the sides’ late-March preliminary agreement on resuming play in 2020.

The MLBPA position remains that the players have already agreed to a pro rata reduction of pay and shouldn’t be forced to give up more — unless, at least, the league comes forward with additional information demonstrating it would not be economically feasible to stage a season otherwise. The league side believes the original agreement really didn’t address the matter of salaries in the event that games are played without attending fans (as seems all but certain).

At the end of the day, regardless of the interpretation of the prior agreement, the sides will need to find common ground on salaries to get an already-challenging 2020 campaign rolling. And there are immense incentives for both sides to figure things out. It’d be a true shocker to see a stalemate hold up a resumption of play. The effort to avoid that mutually disastrous outcome — and to jockey for the best position short of it — will begin a new chapter upon the presentation of this new proposal on Tuesday.

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