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Did The Orioles Find A Rotation Building Block Out Of Nowhere?

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A team in a total rebuild is open to giving any player a chance, particularly when that team is drastically short on starting pitching.  With the Orioles in such a state in April 2019, it paved the way for John Means to enter the Orioles’ rotation, on the heels of three relief outings earlier that season and one (disastrous) 3 1/3-inning appearance in his Major League debut on September 26, 2018.  That outing saw Means surrender five earned runs, giving him an ugly 13.50 ERA heading into the 2019 campaign.

Means didn’t exactly force his way into the rotation during Spring Training, with only a 5.40 ERA over 13 1/3 frames of 2019 Grapefruit League action.  Still, the southpaw did manage 15 strikeouts against just four walks, and given the lack of other pitching options available in Baltimore, the O’s figured it was worth giving Means a shot.

The result was one of the only bright spots of a 108-loss season for the Orioles.  Over 27 outings and 147 1/3 innings as a starting pitcher, Means posted a 3.73 ERA, 3.09 K/BB rate, and 6.6 K/9.  The majority of that production came in the first half of the season, as Means carried a 2.50 ERA through his first 82 2/3 innings and ended up as Baltimore’s All-Star representative.

Means struggled to a 8.34 ERA in his first five post-break starts, though he did manage to get on track with a 3.26 ERA over his final 49 2/3 frames of his rookie season.  As a nod to his breakout performance, Means finished second in AL Rookie Of The Year voting, albeit a distant runner-up behind unanimous winner Yordan Alvarez.

Whenever (or if) the 2020 season gets underway, Means will stand as the de facto ace of the Orioles’ staff — an unlikely development given where he was slightly more than a year ago.  An 11th-round pick in the 2014 draft, Means moved through the farm system with unspectacular but solid numbers over his 622 2/3 minor league innings, posting a 3.83 ERA, 7.1 K/9, and 3.50 K/BB rate.  There isn’t much variance in Means’ year-to-year cumulative stats in the minors, or even in his MLB numbers in 2019.

That type of consistency gives the O’s some hope that Means can at least somewhat replicate his 2019 performance going forward, despite some of the red flags raised by advanced metrics.  Means’ ERA predictors weren’t impressive, with a FIP (4.41), xFIP (5.48), and SIERA (5.02) that were all markedly higher than his actual 3.60 ERA.  The lack of a high strikeout total hurts Means in this respect, and he also isn’t a hard thrower (average fastball velocity of 91.8 mph) or a ground-ball machine.

What he does offer is the ability to limit the damage when opposing batters do hit his offerings.  As per Statcast, Means finished in the 90th percentile of all pitchers in fewest hard-hit balls allowed, while also sitting comfortably above average (72nd percentile) in exit velocity.  Means also had only a 9.9% homer/fly ball rate last season, the fourth-lowest mark of any pitcher in baseball with at least 150 IP and a particularly useful skill for a hurler in the tough AL East.

Means’ heater isn’t particularly fast, though he does generate some good spin, as indicated by his spot in the 75th percentile of fastball spin rate.  His top pitch, however, is a changeup that Fangraphs ranked as one of the best in the league last season.  Only six pitchers with 150+ innings thrown had a better pitch value score on a changeup than Means’ +12.3 number.

Means just turned 27 yesterday and is under team control through the 2024 season (and not arbitration-eligible until the 2021-22 offseason), giving the O’s plenty of flexibility with his future.  Given the long rebuild ahead for the Orioles, it may be a reach to count on Means to still be a productive member of the rotation by the time Baltimore is next ready to contend, so the O’s could eventually consider him as a trade chip.

There wasn’t much buzz about Means on the rumor mill this past winter, as while Baltimore is still at the point of its rebuild that any trade option must be considered, the club might prefer to see what they have with the left-hander in his sophomore year.  A case could be made that the O’s should have sold high on Means given his lack of a track record, and yet even with some regression baked into his future numbers, the potential of Means being a solid innings-eater going forward carries a lot of value.  For a team with so little pitching depth on hand, an unheralded prospect blossoming into at least a decent MLB-level arm counts as a big success.

When Trusting The Decline Phase Goes Wrong: The Reds’ Decision To Trade Frank Robinson

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Let’s begin this look back at perhaps the most famous (or infamous) age-related trade in baseball history with a simple point: the decline phase is real.  Both analytical data and just plain common sense dictates that players become less productive as they get older, and this logic has been the backbone of countless transactions over the decades.  We see several examples every year of teams being willing to invest in younger free agents, or being willing to give up more in a trade for a younger player (who, in most cases, also comes with more years of team control), while also being less willing to surrender trade assets or big free agent dollars for players in their 30’s, out of a fear that those players might quickly hit the wall.

So in this sense, Reds owner/GM Bill DeWitt wasn’t entirely off the mark by deciding to trade Frank Robinson to the Orioles for a three-player package back on December 9, 1965.  It’s always better to move a player a year too early than a year too late, and since Baltimore was willing to give up a promising 26-year-old right-hander in Milt Pappas as the headliner of the trade return, DeWitt felt it was a swap worth making.

Pappas was coming off an All-Star season in 1965, the second time the Detroit native had been named to the Midsummer Classic in a four-season span.  Despite his still-young age, Pappas was already a veteran of nine MLB seasons, with an impressive 3.24 ERA (113 ERA+) to show for his 1632 career innings.  He was the type of arm that seemingly promised an immediate rotation upgrade, and the inclusion of veteran righty reliever Jack Baldschun only made the deal more tempting for the Reds.  Cincinnati pitchers had a cumulative 3.88 ERA in 1965, ranking the Reds 16th out of the 20 Major League teams.

And thus, the O’s sent Pappas, Baldschun, and 21-year-old outfielder Dick Simpson to Cincinnati for Robinson.  It was a classic pitching-for-hitting type of swap that saw both teams deal from a surplus in order to address a need, and on paper, the trade made some sense.

On paper.

In practice, no discussion of baseball’s most lopsided deals is complete without mention of this trade, which ended up sparking a golden age of Orioles baseball.  The thing about baseball’s aging curve is that those who can defy it tend to defy it in a very big way — great players are defined, after all, by sustaining that greatness over an extended period of time.  Any player can have one big season or even several big seasons, but those who can keep that production up across the decades are the ones that truly stand out as all-time legends.

Case in point, Frank Robinson, who was a superstar from essentially day one.  Robinson won NL Rookie Of The Year honors in 1956 and also finished seventh in NL MVP voting in his first season, kicking off a dominant ten-year run in Cincinnati.  Over 1502 games and 6408 plate appearances from 1956-65, Robinson hit .303/.389/.554 with 324 home runs, making eight All-Star appearances and winning the NL MVP Award in 1961 (a year that saw the Reds win the NL pennant).

There wasn’t much evidence that Robinson was slowing down in 1965, though the slugger did turn 30 years old that August.  This detail is maybe the key factor in why this trade is so memorable over 54 years later.  Asked why he dealt one of baseball’s best hitters, DeWitt described Robinson as either “an old 30” or “not a young 30,” depending on the source.

Naturally, trading Frank Robinson for any reason wouldn’t have been a fond memory for Reds fans regardless of the specific details.  But DeWitt’s mention of Robinson’s age created an easy hook for both the media and maybe even for Robinson himself, who by all accounts was very motivated to prove that the Reds erred in trading him.

That motivation led to Robinson’s 1966 campaign, one of more wall-to-wall dominant seasons any player has ever enjoyed.  Robinson won the Triple Crown (49 homers, 122 RBI, .316 average) while also leading the AL in runs (122), OBP (.410) and slugging percentage (.637) for good measure.  He proceeded to post a 1.232 OPS in the World Series, leading to Series MVP honors as the Orioles won the first World Series championship in franchise history.  As you might expect, Robinson was named AL MVP, making him the first and still only player to ever win MVP honors in both the American and National Leagues.

Robinson hit .301/.401/.543 with 179 homers over his six seasons in Baltimore.  This was good for a 169 OPS+, which topped his 150 OPS+ during his previous decade in a Reds uniform.  The Orioles reached the World Series four times in Robinson’s six years on the roster, winning another championship in 1970.  Ultimately, Robinson didn’t start to slow down at the plate until 1976, his 21st and final season.

As any Reds fan can sadly recount, Cincinnati’s end of the trade didn’t work out nearly as well.  Baldschun and Simpson didn’t contribute much over two seasons with the Reds and both didn’t play in the majors after 1970.  While Pappas only posted a 4.04 ERA over 490 innings for the Reds before being dealt to the Braves in June 1968, it’s unfair to label him as a bust — it’s just that anything short of Cy Young-level performance would have paled in comparison to Robinson’s Orioles dominance.  Pappas went on to pitch eight more seasons in the big leagues, with a 3.57 ERA that represented only a relatively minor step back from his heyday in Baltimore.

The Reds struggled to a 76-84 record in 1966, and DeWitt both stepped down from the GM role and sold the club during the offseason.  Though DeWitt had a long career as an executive that included two pennant winners (the 1961 Reds and the 1944 St. Louis Browns — ironically, the franchise that would later become the Orioles), the Robinson trade is the move that DeWitt is most remembered for today, in large part because of his “not a young 30” quote.

The deal has become maybe the all-time cautionary tale for any team thinking about moving an aging but still-productive star.  Though there are far more examples of teams either correctly parting ways with a player before their eventual decline, or (by contrast) hanging onto a star player too long and watching him decline on their watch, no GM wants to be the one responsible for trading away a legend.  Father Time may not undefeated, as the saying goes, though Robinson put up as good of a battle against the aging curve as any just about any player in any sport.

The Marlins Are Gambling On Tooled-Up Hitting Prospects

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The Marlins found themselves on the butt end of many jokes when they went from having perhaps MLB’s best starting outfield to a 100-loss team in just one winter. After a 2017 season in which they flirted with contention before fading in the second half, their rebuild got off to a slow start with the trades of its premier outfield trio of Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, and Marcell Ozuna. The organization received its fair share of flak after those three yielded relatively light returns that have provided little payoff to this day while Yelich goes supernova in Milwaukee. The franchise was transitioning to a new ownership group fronted by Derek Jeter, and his orchestration of yet another fire sale—which have become entirely too commonplace in the Marlins’ abbreviated history—did little to ingratiate him to the Miami faithful.

However, over the past year or so, the team’s acquisitions have given rise to a burgeoning minor-league system that is now, by most accounts, one of the ten best farm systems in baseball, a big step up from where they were even after trading away Stanton, Ozuna, and Yelich. The Marlins’ trades in July of last year were illustrative of an organizational preference for physically-gifted, toolsy hitters with a wide range of possible outcomes, both good and bad. Separate deals involving Nick Anderson, Sergio Romo, and Zac Gallen all reflected this thinking, and that’s made it easy to dream on best-case scenario outcomes for the youthful Miami franchise.

Sending Anderson (and Trevor Richards) to the Rays and Gallen to the D-Backs yielded Jazz Chisholm and Jesus Sanchez, respectively, both of whom are consensus top-100 prospects with highly-touted tools. Dealing Romo to the Twins produced Lewin Diaz, a lower-profile prospect but one whose offensive potential is likewise power-dominant.

That said, greater upside is often tempered by uncertainty, and with their revamped farm system, the Marlins are swinging for the fences. Perhaps the front office’s proclivity for energizing talents is just a coincidence, or maybe it’s an organizational recognition that the path to contention is by catching lightning in a bottle—thanks to their notoriously limited monetary resources. Either way, it’s a trend that warrants some discussion.

About those aforementioned prospects: Sanchez, formerly of the Rays, has been lauded for his bat speed and power potential, but those strengths have thus far been mitigated by below-average plate discipline and a groundball-heavy swing path. The thinking is that if he can hone his angle of attack as well as his approach at the dish, his power will start to manifest in games more often. Acquiring Sanchez for Nick Anderson, who hardly fits with the Marlins’ timeline, feels like the kind of move the club should be looking to make, and they’re betting that their player development staff can get the most out of Sanchez’s tantalizing tools.

Similar things can be said for shorstop Jazz Chisholm, though his acquisition was met with more skepticism after the Marlins gave up rookie right-hander Zac Gallen to the Diamondbacks. Gallen, though still far from established, had already pitched in the Majors and, through seven starts, looked like the kind of starter you can build around. Nobody expects Gallen to become a bona fide ace, but you don’t need five aces to win a World Series, and the Marlins could expect to keep him around for at least the next six years. That sounds like a player you want to keep around in a rebuild, but the Marlins saw and seized an opportunity to exchange Gallen, a boring player (in a good way), for one with a little more zest.

Chisholm, a 22-year-old Bahamian shortstop, catches the eye in a way that a command-oriented starter just can’t. Gallen’s high-floor, low-variance profile is contrasted by that of Chisholm, who has a chance to realize an explosive offensive ceiling while playing in the middle of the field. Hey, that sounds an awful lot like Javier Baez! Of course, the caveat is that there’s still too many strikeouts for some scouts’ liking, and there are questions about whether those issues will ever go away. And yeah, that still sounds like Javier Baez circa 2014, but for every Baez, there’s a handful of similarly-built prospects who fizzle out when they swing and miss too much.

J.J. Bleday, the Marlins’ first-round draft choice last June, looks like a good get; he was one of the most polished hitters in last year’s draft class, but supplements that with strong athletic traits. His floor probably isn’t as low as that of Chisholm or Sanchez, and he represents a key draft pick for Miami after missing on top picks in years prior. He should slot into an outfield corner for Miami in the near future—maybe even as soon as the second half of this year, assuming a season is played.

Kameron Misner, Jerar Encarnacion, Osiris Johnson, and Peyton Burdick are lesser prospects that nonetheless deserve a mention. Misner, Burdick, and Encarnacion are all big-bodied outfielders who can hit the snot out of the ball (Misner and Burdick, both 2019 draftees, can run a little bit too) but will need to prove their ability to hit for average and get on base if they’re going to stick in the Majors. Johnson is a versatile infielder who was drafted out of high school in 2018; he’s mired in a lot of uncertainty partly because of injuries, but partly because he doesn’t have a position and he’s still raw as a hitter.

On the pitching side, there’s less evidence for the tools-based approach we’ve described here. The likes of Jordan Yamamoto and Nick Neidert represent a more command- and pitchability-based profile, while on the other hand frontline pitching prospect Sixto Sanchez has run into some speculation about whether he’s ticketed for a bullpen role. Still, Sixto and Edward Cabrera have received a lot of attention as righties who could install themselves in the rotation for the next contending Marlins team.

Of course, not all of the players discussed here will reach their ceiling in the Majors—that just isn’t how player evaluation and prospects work. With that said, the Marlins might only need to hit on a few of their touted minor leaguers to kickstart the MLB team and accelerate the rebuild. The point of inflection for many rebuilds is whether the organization is lucky enough to form a core of players who overlap in their development and ascension to the Major Leagues, allowing the team to invest in those players and construct a roster around them. And if that happens in Miami, their tools-heavy focus in player acquisition could pay off in a big way.

Unfortunately, the only way we’ll see the end of the Marlins story is with time. Farm system rankings can only take us so far, and they mean nothing if the talent doesn’t produce at the Major League level. The Marlins are gambling on their organizational ability to mold talented but raw youngsters into quality MLB players. Their hit rate on those players will determine whether the franchise is ready to move into next phase of its rebuild or if they’ll need to reset and re-evaluate their organizational philosophy.

How The Rays Traded A Top-100 Prospect For A 29-Year-Old Rookie And Came Away Winners

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Nick Anderson is not exactly a household name – and he may never be. For most of last season, Anderson was a 28-year-old rookie non-closer pitching for the Marlins (he turned 29 in July). That’s not a recipe for superstardom.

After a deadline deal brought him to Tampa Bay, Anderson did get a moment in the spotlight, striking out four of the five batters he faced in the Rays’ Wild Card Game win over the A’s. That was nothing new for Anderson, who spent most of the season racking up strikeouts at an alarming rate.

Between Tampa and Miami, Anderson appeared in 68 games in 2019, totaling 65 innings with a good-but-not-great 3.32 ERA. The peripherals speak to a much more dominant campaign for the former independent leaguer. His 2.35 FIP suggests a potential high-leverage bullpen arm, while the 2.1 fWAR he racked up confirms it: he tied for 5th overall in the majors among relievers. That puts him on the same plane with firemen/closers like Taylor Rogers, Brandon Workman, Felipe Vazquez and Aroldis Chapman. Make no mistake: Nick Anderson is an elite bullpen piece.

Credit the Marlins for picking up Anderson and turning him into a top-100 prospect in Jesus Sanchez. Sanchez may have lost some luster as a prospect, but he still landed at #96 on Fangraphs’ top-100 list. Yes, he was #47 on their updated list after starting the year at #54 in 2019, but he’s still just 22-years-old and posted a promising line of .246/.338/.446 in the homer-happy PCL after the trade. As a 21-year-old, he was more than 5 years younger than the average player in the PCL.

For their part, the Marlins acquired Anderson for Brian Schales after the Twins signed Anderson from the independent league. The 6’5″ Anderson put up good numbers in the Twins’ system from 2015 to 2017, but he started to pop in 2018, striking out 13.2 hitters per nine innings in Triple-A. At the time, the deal was most notable for bumping Derek Dietrich from the Marlins’ roster.

But Anderson became a different animal entirely during his breakout in 2019. His 15.23 K/9 ranked fourth among relievers in the majors, behind only strikeout artists Edwin Diaz, Matt Barnes and Josh Hader. After joining the Rays, Anderson went into overdrive, striking out a ridiculous 17.3 batters per nine innings. Including his Marlins work, the Minnesota native finished in the bottom 9th percentile in hard hit percentage and bottom 12th percentile in exit velocity.

In adding Anderson from the Marlins, the Rays got a guy who has a legitimate chance to be one of the most dominant relievers in all of baseball, and they have him at the league minimum for another two seasons. This is a guy the Rays can afford, which makes the deal all the more important from their perspective. There’s a reason they could include Ryne Stanek in the deal, a guy who throws 100+ mph and had a 3.40 ERA at the time. There’s a reason they could deal Emilio Pagan to the Padres after he broke out with a 2.3 bWAR season of his own in 2019. That reason is Nick Anderson.

So how does he do it? For Anderson, the recipe is fairly simple. He throws a fastball that averages 96 mph with good spin that he locates up in the zone. His “other” pitch is a curveball – but it’s one of the best in the game. By Fangraphs’ pitch values, his curveball was the second most valuable such offering from a reliever in 2019, behind only Workman’s bender. Batters managed an expected batting average of just .134 off Anderson’s curveball while registering a whiff rate of 54.2%. As of right now, Anderson’s hook is one of the deadliest weapons in the sport.

Anderson could also be in line for some positive regression this season, as opponents had a higher-than-average .349 BABIP against him in 2019. A 14.5 % HR/FB rate was also higher than Anderson had yielded at any point in the minors, and if that number comes down, Anderson could be an even more potent asset for the Rays moving forward.

His ceiling is no lower than Liam Hendriks’ amazing 2019, though Hendriks has a bit more versatility in his offspeed stuff. Hendriks, of course, was the most productive reliever in all of baseball last season, so there aren’t a ton of comps out there that make sense for him. Anderson, however, is one that does.

Offseason In Review: Seattle Mariners

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After 89 wins in 2018 didn’t sniff the postseason, the Mariners willfully took a step back in 2019. A fifth-place finish and 94 losses later, the Mariners have another development year on the horizon when/if the 2020 season gets underway. Even so, General Manager Jerry Dipoto isn’t one to sit quietly on the sidelines, and he found ways to keep himself busy this winter.

Guaranteed Contracts

Trades and Claims

Extensions

  • Signed LHP Marco Gonzalez to four-year, $30MM extension (from 2021-2024), $5MM in 2021, $5.5MM in 2022, $6.5MM in 2023, $12MM in 2024, plus $1MM signing bonus and $15MM team option for 2025
  • Signed 1B Evan White to six-year, $24MM ($1.3MM in 2020 and 2021, $1.4MM in 2022, $3MM in 2023, $7MM in 2024, $8MM in 2025, $10MM team option in 2026 plus two more club options in 2027 and 2028 for a combined $21.5MM).

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

First and foremost, let’s pour one out for King Felix. Now 34-years-old, Felix Hernandez joined the Braves as a non-roster invitee this spring, officially ending his 15-year tenure with the Mariners. Granted, we haven’t seen vintage King Felix since…maybe 2015? Regardless: 15 years, 418 starts, 6 All-Star appearances, a Cy Young award, 169 wins, 8 200-inning seasons, 25 complete games, 11 shutouts, 1 relief appearance, and tragically, zero postseason appearances. The Mariners fielded some competitive rosters over the years (85-89 wins five times from 2005 to 2019), but whenever the Mariners end their playoff drought, they’ll do so without King Felix. Still, he goes down as a Seattle great: a career 3.42 ERA/3.52 FIP, good for 50.3 bWAR/54 fWAR.

Beyond Felix, the Mariners didn’t lose anyone of terrible consequence this winter. Healy, Beckham, Milone, Tuivailala and Santana had their moments, while Vizcaino, Siri, and Anderson never appeared in a regular season game for Seattle. None should be missed long-term as the Mariners continue to set their sights on 2021 and beyond.

Meanwhile, they brought back a familiar face in Taijuan Walker. If healthy, Walker has a good chance of making the rotation. For $2MM (plus incentives), it’s a safe gamble for the M’s, and at 27-years-old, there’s still some upside if he can return to form. The M’s ought to have enough leash to give him that opportunity.

Elsewhere in the rotation, the Gonzalez extension keeps the former Cardinal at the front of the rotation for the next four seasons (maybe five) at a good rate. The 28-year-old is coming off solid back-to-back 3+ fWAR seasons, eclipsing the 200-inning mark while going 16-13 with a 3.99 ERA/4.15 FIP in 2019. He’s not the type to front a rotation, but he’s a solid arm who should continue to be an asset throughout the length of his new extension.

The rest of the rotation – and most of the roster – is a series of auditions. The M’s have a lot of interesting young players in the clubhouse, and before Trader Jerry gets set to make another push for the postseason, he’s got to sort the real McCoys from the small-sample hucksters.

In the rotation, there are two types of tryout candidates: prospects and retreads. Walker has the familiarity with the Seattle base, but Kendall Graveman may also get a chance to earn a rotation spot after spending last season rehabbing with the Cubs. Graveman knows the division well having put up a little more than two full seasons worth of solid back-end rotation work for the A’s from 2015 to 2018.

In the prospects camp, Justus Sheffield is facing a make-or-break campaign after seven so-so starts with the big league club last year. Justin Dunn also got a taste last year, and though the former Mets farmhand may not start the year in the majors, he should be a prime understudy after putting together a solid season in Double-A.

Waiver claim Nick Margevicius falls somewhere between the two camps. He struggled in the bigs last year with the Padres, posting a 6.79 ERA/5.64 FIP, but he made the jump from Double-A, and he’s still just 23-years-old. His typically pristine control slipped just enough to hurt upon reaching the big leagues, while his home-run-to-fly-ball ratio skyrocketed. He wasn’t exactly pitching in a bandbox in San Diego, but if he can limit the long ball and get his walks-per-nine back under 2 where it lived for most of his minor league career, the Mariners might have another lefty for the rotation.

Along with Yusei Kikuchi, that’s at least seven semi-interesting arms to look at, which might be more than enough in a short season (though there’s obviously a ton of uncertainty there). The other notable additions this winter were in the bullpen, where new Yoshihisa Hirano, Carl Edwards Jr., Nestor Cortes Jr. and Rule 5 pick Yohan Ramirez all have a chance to make the Opening Day roster.

Hirano struggles somewhat for the Diamondbacks in his second season stateside, but he also bumped his strikeout rate from 8.0 K/9 to 10.4 K/9 – with a lesser jump in walk rate (3.1 BB/9 to 3.7 BB/9). He could end up being a big piece of the bullpen. CJ Edwards, meanwhile, was one of the more inexplicable flameouts in 2019: 8.47 ERA/5.74 FIP across 22 appearances for the Cubs and Padres. Considering the 3+ seasons with a 3.06 ERA/3.12 FIP that Edwards put together for the Cubs from 2015 to 2018, and he makes for an intriguing flyer who is still just 28-years-old.

On the offensive end, Dipoto made two big moves. The first was trading starting catcher Omar Narvaez to the Brewers for a Competitive Round Draft Pick and 6’6″ right-hander Adam Hill. Narvaez had a good season last year (.278/.353/.460 with 22 home runs, 199 wRC+), but his other half Tom Murphy looked good too (just ask MLBTR’s own Anthony Franco). Hill has a big arm, but has to get his control under wraps. He was the Brewers #24 prospect per MLB.com at the time of the deal. The Brewers had him for just half a season after he joined the organization from the Mets in January as part of the Keon Broxton deal.

Dipoto took the opportunity to add youth, so they’ll turn over the backstop duties to Murphy and Aaron Nola’s big brother Austin. Murphy posted good numbers on both sides of the ball, and he’ll get the starting nod, but Nola figures to get plenty of playing time as well. Nola is an infield convert who plans to make catching his full-time gig in 2020. If he can stick it defensively, he seems to have enough bat for the position (.269/.342/.454 in 267 plate appearances last year). Assuming good health, the Murphy/Nola combo ought to be sufficient in 2020 while Cal Raleigh continues to work his way towards the bigs.

Dipoto’s other significant decision was giving first baseman Evan White a six-year, $24MM deal after he played the 2019 season for the Arkansas Travelers in Double-A. White, 24 on Sunday, certainly looks worth the money if he continues to perform as he did for the Travelers. White hit .293/.350/.488 with 18 home runs across 400 plate appearances in 2019. He’s the Mariners’ 4th-ranked prospect per Fangraphs, and he profiles as a complete player with plus power, speed, and defense that should help him claim (and keep) first base for the next half decade.

Granted, it’s risky to hand $24MM to a kid who’s totaled 4 games above Double-A, but Dipoto secured significant upside with this deal, which includes three option years for an additional $31.5MM. If White turns into the player Dipoto suspects, they’ll have him for the next 9 seasons at an AAV of $6.17MM. Also, they can now start White on the major league roster without manipulating his service clock (if they deem him ready). First base certainly isn’t thought of as a core position these days, but core players  routinely make their homes there (Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo, Paul Goldschmidt, etc.), and while White has a lot to prove before qualifying to break bread with that trio, the Mariner brass saw enough to write his name on the lineup card in pen.

If there was a surprise this winter from Trader Jerry, it’s that he didn’t find a way to move more of his remaining veterans. Kyle Seager and Dee Gordon would figure to be the first to move in 2020 if they can establish any value. Unfortunately, Gordon doesn’t have any at present (nor much of a path to establishing some), and Seager’s price tag all but nullifies any value he might have accrued during a bounce-back .239/.321/.468, 110 wRC+ 2019 season. The eldest Seager bounced around the trade papers this winter in regards to hot corner openings in the NL East, but he’s owed $19.5MM in 2020, $18.5MM in 2021, and if he were dealt, a $15MM club option for 2022 becomes a player option. The option clause makes Seager difficult to deal, and the Mariners like his makeup, so it seems as likely as anything that he’ll play out the remainder of his deal in T-Mobile Park.

Other veterans like Mallex Smith and Daniel Vogelbach are young enough to be a part of the next Seattle contender, but more than that, they don’t carry much trade value at present. Vogelbach, 27, finished last season with 30 home runs and a palatable 111 wRC+. But he’s not a fielder, and he’s not a runner, and even though he’s not even arb eligible until 2022, there’s not a lot of need for his skill set around the league. Smith, 27 in May, has shown promise at times in his career, but as MLBTR’s own Connor Byrne wrote about in a recent post entitled “Seattle’s Struggling Center Fielder“…well, the title pretty much tells the tale (and if not, Connor can take you the rest of the way).

Mitch Haniger is the guy toeing the line here, as the Mariners’ have long-lauded his character and the total package he brings to the table, but as a 29-year-old corner outfielder, it’s fair to wonder if his contributions would better serve a contender. A slew of injuries has kept that question on the back-burner, however, as there’s no timetable for his return after undergoing a pair of offseason surgeries.

Finding core players to play alongside White will be priority number one for Scott Servais and company whenever play resumes. Julio Rodriguez and Jarred Kelenic are two big-time prospects  atop the M’s vision board, but they’re both probably a year or maybe more away. In the meantime, Servais and Dipoto will keep a daily eye on a whole host of young position players who may or may not become crucial parts of their future. Among those looking to secure their long-term place: Shed Long, Jake Fraley, J.P. Crawford, Kyle Lewis, Braden Bishop, and to a lesser extend, guys like Tim Lopes and Donovan Walton. Some vets were brought in to compete – CarGo, Cody Anderson, Wei-Yin Chen, among others – but it’s looking increasingly likely that the Mariners will ride the youth wave in 2020.

2020 Outlook

If a couple from the Long/Fraley/Crawford/Lewis bucket can establish themselves – along with Sheffield and/or Dunn in the rotation – then the Mariners will count 2020 as a success. They could even set themselves up as a real team of interest heading into 2021. Conditions for development aren’t ideal, but the biggest question facing the M’s might be how much they can learn about their young players in a potentially shortened season. Speculation on that front will have to wait until we know more. For now, we’ll have to settle for grading the Mariners’ winter work.

How would you grade the Mariners’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

The Mark Grace Decade Award

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For many years, my go-to baseball trivia question was this: who led the 1990s in hits? 

I won’t bury the lede any further: The answer is Mark Grace. Grace never hit 20 home runs in a season despite being a middle-of-the-order bat, and he spent most of his career on lackluster Cubs teams. He was a three-time All-Star and four-time Gold Glove winner who never finished higher than thirteenth in MVP voting. He was a very good baseball player. But I think it’s safe to say that he’s not the first name that comes to mind when looking for the decade-leader in hits. 

Growing up, Grace was my favorite player, but that’s only part of why I loved this trivia question. In my mind, Grace epitomized something special about the game. He played smart and with obvious boyhood joy. He could hit .300 falling asleep, and though he wasn’t known for his power, he held his own – in his words – by “turning triples into doubles” (he also led the nineties in doubles). #17 wasn’t a superstar to the world (he didn’t hit home runs, he didn’t run well, and he played for the lovable loser version of the Cubs), but Grace made the most of his physical abilities and let his personality shine through. And ah yes, he had more hits in the nineties than Tony Gwynn, Robby Alomar, Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey Jr., Sammy Sosa, Cal Ripken Jr.…or anyone else.

That he accomplished this feat speaks to the randomness and the breadth of the game of baseball. Only a player who played in every season of the decade is likely to lead all major leaguers in hits (see the exception to this rule later). And yet, what a tremendous accomplishment! The juxtaposition of those two thoughts encapsulates so much of what makes baseball unique. Timing is a huge factor in determining what becomes part of the baseball zeitgeist, and yet, there’s an ocean of information beneath the surface of any given statistical achievement. 

Not to date myself, but there’s been two full decades since Grace led the nineties in hits! Granted, hits are no longer the be all and end all of offensive production. Not anywhere close. But they’re still important. Leading the league in hits over a decade is more trivia than player analysis, but it’s still an accomplishment that shines a light on a particular style of hitter. So without further ado, I thought it would be a fun exercise to see who wins the Mark Grace Award for leading a decade in hits.

2010-2019

  1. Robinson Cano (1,695)
  2. Nick Markakis (1,651)
  3. Adam Jones (1,647)
  4. Starlin Castro (1,617)
  5. Miguel Cabrera (1,595)
  6. Elvis Andrus (1,595)

Kicking it off, this is not the list I expected for our most recent decade. Cano taking the title is impressive, if not surprising for the career .302 hitter, because he only appeared in 107 games this last season and only 80 games the year before that. Taking the crown regardless speaks to how difficult it is in this day and age to stay in the game. Kudos to the the rest of the list as well, which provides a real working class crew (Miggy aside). Cano is also, for what it’s worth, the least productive hits king in any decade since the war-torn forties when the Indians’ Lou Boudreau took home the title with 1,578 hits.

2000-2009

  1. Ichiro Suzuki (2,030)
  2. Derek Jeter (1,940)
  3. Miguel Tejada (1,860)
  4. Todd Helton (1,756)
  5. Vladimir Guerrero (1,751)

Tejada is the only name on this list that might take more than a couple of guesses. Of course, the most impressive feat here is that Ichiro managed to chalk up more than 2,000 hits in only 9 seasons.

1990-1999

  1. Mark Grace (1,754)
  2. Rafael Palmiero (1,747)
  3. Craig Biggio (1,728)
  4. Tony Gwynn (1,713)
  5. Roberto Alomar (1,678)

Biggio or Gwynn probably would have been my guess had I not known the answer beforehand. Biggio led the league in plate appearances in 5 seasons (’92, ’95, ’97,’98,’99), but he hit “only” .297 for the decade (versus .310 for Grace). Gwynn hit .344 in the nineties, but only managed to appear in more than 140 games twice.

1980-1989

  1. Robin Yount (1,731)
  2. Eddie Murray (1,642)
  3. Willie Wilson (1,639)
  4. Wade Boggs (1,597)
  5. Dale Murphy (1,553)

Willie Wilson gave himself a good head start with 230 hits in 1980, but Yount and Murray managed to make up the difference before the end of the eighties. The Royals’ great did crush the competition for most triples in the decade, however, with 115 (Yount was second with 83).

1970-1979 

  1. Pete Rose (2,045)
  2. Rod Carew (1,787)
  3. Al Oliver (1,686)
  4. Lou Brock (1,617)
  5. Bobby Bonds (1,565)

No surprises here, with Rose and Carew atop the list.

1960-1969

  1. Roberto Clemente (1,877)
  2. Hank Aaron (1,819)
  3. Vada Pinson (1,776)
  4. Maury Wills (1,744)
  5. Brooks Robinson (1,692)

For the decade, Clemente hit .328/.375/.501. He took the batting crown four times and hit over .350 twice (1961: .351 BA, 1967: .357 BA).

1950-1959

  1. Richie Ashburn (1,875)
  2. Nellie Fox (1,837)
  3. Stan Musial (1,771)
  4. Alvin Dark (1,675)
  5. Duke Snider (1,605)

Integration wasn’t exactly a comprehensive process from the jump when Jackie Robinson first appeared for the Brooklyn Dodgers in 1947, so we’ll make the fifties the last decade. All in all, Pete Rose unsurprisingly was the most prolific hits leader in any decade with 2,045 knocks in the 70s, but I’m not sure there’s a more impressive name on there than Ichiro, whose wizardy with the bat came up just 15 hits shy of Rose in just 9 seasons from 2001 to 2010.

Otherwise, definitely some names you might have expected (Rose, Young, Clemente), but it’s not as if a 3,000 hit king rules every decade. Ashburn, like Grace, hit the league at the perfect time to snag this award, as his career spanned from 1948 to 1962. He joins Grace and Cano as the non-3000 hit players to lead a decade in hits (though Cano still has an outside shot to get there). For their careers, Grace takes the distinction as the player with the least career hits to lead a decade in the category.

Who else on these list surprises you? Al Dark? Elvis Andrus? Who did you expect? Let’s hear your takes in the comments!

Quick Hits: State Plan, Cape Cod, Dalkowski

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A three-state plan is reportedly on the table for Major League Baseball in 2020, but it may go beyond that. Ken Rosenthal says (via Fox Sports) that MLB could go to five, 10 or even 12 states in an effort to make a season happen. MLB has no idea when a season could potentially begin, but “there is a lot of motivation” among team owners to get things underway, according to Rosenthal.

  • The coronavirus pandemic forced the Cape Cod League to cancel its 2020 season Friday. “The decision was based on the health concerns and safety needs of all involved,” the league announced. “Following CDC guidelines and medical recommendations, the league determined it would be impossible to guarantee the safety of players, coaches, umpires, host families, volunteers and fans during this unprecedented health crisis.” The season had been scheduled to begin June 13, but league executives unanimously voted to call it off, and it’ll be the first year without the college summer league since 1946. As noted by Teddy Cahill of Baseball America, considering the league’s importance for scouting and development, it’s a major blow to the players involved who won’t get to further prove themselves in 2020. Plenty of high-end talent has come out of the league in the past. According to the CCBL, “One in every six Major League Baseball players has played in the Cape Cod Baseball League.”
  • MLBTR extends its condolences to the family and friends of former Orioles minor league left-hander Steve Dalkowski, who passed away of COVID-19 at the age of 80, per Dom Amore of the Hartford Courant. Dalkowski never pitched in the majors, but he nonetheless made quite a mark on the sport. Joe Posnanski of The Athletic recently wrote an interesting profile of Dalkowski, who could be both incredibly dominant and incredibly wild at the same time. He once struck out 24 and walked 18 in a game, and was also the author of a no-hitter in which he totaled 18 punchouts and free passes apiece; those were just some of the many statistical oddities in his career. There’s no footage of Dalkowski during his playing days, but Cal Ripken Sr. estimated that his fastball clocked in at 110 mph. Ted Wiilliams once called him “the fastest pitcher in baseball history.” If you’re familiar with the movie “Bull Durham,” the character of Nuke LaLoosh was based on Dalkowski. He also helped inspire the Steve Nebraska character in “The Scout.”

 

AL Notes: Cora, Red Sox, Indians, Blue Jays

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Ex-Red Sox manager Alex Cora was just suspended for 2020 thanks to the role he played as the Astros’ bench coach during their 2017 sign-stealing scandal. Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and president Sam Kennedy made it sound earlier this week as if they wouldn’t bring Cora back at the end of his ban, but Kennedy may be open to it after all (via Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com). Kennedy told “Ordway, Merloni & Fauria” of WEEI that Cora’s “a great baseball manager.” As for whether the Red Sox would rehire him, Kennedy said: “We’ll talk about that down the road. We just removed Ron Roenicke’s interim tag and he’s going to lead our club going forward. I think a lot of Alex’s future depends on how he approaches this suspension period.” For at least this season, Roenicke – Cora’s former bench coach – will manage the team.

More on a couple other American League franchises…

  • The Indians have taken a step to compensate the majority of their employees for the foreseeable future during the COVID-19 pandemic. They’ve committed to paying their full-time staff their entire salaries through at least the end of June, Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN.com report. Forty of the Indians’ senior staff members took pay cuts so the rest of the full-time staff could receive their typical salaries. The Indians have furloughed part-time workers and interns, on the other hand, but they could make the same amount of money or even more by way of unemployment benefits, according to Passan. While most of the league’s teams have committed to paying their non-player employees through May, the Indians are among the few that we know will extend beyond that point.
  • As a result of the season postponement, two fans recently filed a lawsuit against all 30 MLB teams and ticket companies StubHub, Ticketmaster, Live Nation, and Last Minute Transactions because they haven’t been able to get a refund for tickets purchased for 2020. The Blue Jays are not among the teams that have refused to give fans their money back, however, president Mark Shapiro told Gregor Chisholm of the Toronto Star. “We have fielded every single call and whenever there has been a hardship, or a circumstance, that has necessitated a refund, we have refunded those tickets,” said Shapiro, who added, “We have not fought any of those and will continue to do that.” Shapiro’s under the impression that the league’s “very close” to announcing “a broader policy on refunds and exchanges.”

How The Reds Got Their 49-HR Man

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The Reds’ Eugenio Suarez has morphed into one of the majors’ most valuable third basemen over the past few years. Dating back to 2017, Suarez has accounted for 12.3 fWAR – the eighth-highest figure at his position and one that puts him in company with names like Kris Bryant and Josh Donaldson. At this point, it’s fair to call Suarez a cornerstone for the Reds, who signed him to a seven-year extension worth $66MM after his breakout effort in ’17. That now looks like a brilliant move from the team’s perspective, while acquiring him in the first place counts as one of former general manager Walt Jocketty’s shrewdest decisions atop their front office.

Let’s start with how Suarez got to this level after first joining the Tigers as a free agent out of Venezuela in 2008. Within five years, Suarez was regarded among the top five prospects in their system, though he didn’t wow anyone during his lone action in Detroit’s uniform. In his first season in the majors in 2014, Suarez played shortstop and batted .242/.316/.336 (86 wRC+) with 0.9 fWAR over 277 plate appearances and 85 games. The Tigers then shipped him and pitching prospect Jonathon Crawford to Cincinnati for right-hander Alfredo Simon heading into the 2015 season.

Simon was, of course, the headliner when the trade occurred. Then 33 years old, Simon was coming off an All-Star season in which he pitched to a 3.44 ERA/4.33 FIP over 196 1/3 innings. It was just the first season as a full-time starter for Simon, who functioned either as a reliever or a swingman in prior years. Unfortunately for Detroit, it would go down as his sole effective season from the rotation, though that wasn’t entirely surprising.

As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd wrote when the trade happened: “Of course, Simon comes with plenty of questions as to whether he can repeat his effort. ERA estimators were not nearly as high on his work last year. And his ERA ballooned to 4.52 in the second half of the season.”

The Tigers didn’t make the playoffs in 2015, which proved to be Simon’s lone year with the franchise, and he was only able to muster a 5.05 ERA/4.77 FIP in 187 frames along the way. Then-president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, who acquired Simon, didn’t make it through the season. Simon went back to the Reds in free agency thereafter, but he also struggled in his return to Cincy and hasn’t been heard from since at the major league level.

So, buying one year of control over Simon clearly didn’t go as hoped for the Tigers. It gets worse when you consider what they gave up. Sure, Crawford – the Tigers’ first-round pick in 2013 – didn’t amount to anything in the majors. In fact, he never even advanced beyond the High-A level, where he last pitched in 2017. Conversely, Suarez can be counted as one who got away for the Tigers.

It took Suarez until 2017 to truly find his groove in a Reds uniform, but as mentioned, he has established himself as a highly valuable member of the team and someone who could help key their resurgence sometime soon. Now a prolific slugger, Suarez has combined for 130 home runs in the past four seasons. He hit a jaw-dropping 49 last year to finish second in the majors, trailing only Mets Rookie of the Year winner Pete Alonso. Additionally, Suarez managed a .271/.358/.572 line (good for a 133 wRC+), totaled a personal-high 4.5 fWAR and missed a mere three of the Reds’ 162 games.

Suarez, still just 28, is on track to stay a Red through at least 2024. He’ll make reasonable salaries ranging from $9.25MM to $11MM through then, and the Reds will have a decision to make on a club option come 2025 ($15MM guarantee versus $2MM buyout). By FanGraphs’ estimate, Suarez’s production in Cincinnati has already been worth around $116MM. All the Tigers got for parting with that was a disappointing season from Simon, and they still haven’t found a clear answer at third since moving on from Suarez.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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