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Archives for April 2020
Austin Maddox Retires
Red Sox right-hander Austin Maddox announced his retirement during the offseason, as reported by SoxProspects.com (Twitter link) in March. The 28-year-old Maddox is hanging up his glove after 13 Major League appearances (all with the Sox during the 2017 season) and seven total professional seasons.
A University of Florida product, Maddox was a third-round pick for the Red Sox in the 2012 draft and he pitched almost exclusively as a reliever during his time in Boston’s farm system — 136 of his 151 career minor league appearances came out of the bullpen. After some issues with the home run ball early in his career, Maddox began to post better results in 2015, and then made a three-level jump during the 2016 season. Another strong performance at the Double-A and Triple-A levels in 2017 led to his call-up to the Red Sox roster.
Maddox’s brief MLB career will go into the books as an impressive one by the numbers, as he allowed just a single earned run over 17 1/3 regular season innings. Beyond that minuscule 0.52 ERA, Maddox also recorded 14 strikeouts against just two walks. This was enough to earn Maddox a spot on the Red Sox postseason roster, and he allowed a run in two innings pitched during Boston’s ALDS loss to the Astros.
What looked like a promising start ended up as the entirety of Maddox’s big league career. A shoulder strain limited him to only eight total outings in the minors in 2018, and he missed all of 2019 recovering from rotator cuff surgery. The Red Sox re-signed Maddox to a new minor league deal over the offseason, though he didn’t appear in any Spring Training games.
MLBTR wishes Maddox the best in the next step in his post-playing career.
Rebound Candidate: Khris Davis
Since joining the Athletics in 2016, Khris Davis has been a steady offensive force in the Oakland lineup, consistently finding his name near the top of yearly home run leaderboards. He hit more at least 42 homers in every year from 2016-2018 and played in at least 150 games each year. He even garnered MVP votes in 2017 and 2018, finishing eighth in the latter year when he slugged a league-leading 48 round-trippers. In April of last year, his reliability earned him a handsome two-year, $33.5MM extension that will keep him in an A’s uniform through at least 2021.
After that, however, things went south for Davis. All told, 2019 wound up being his worst year as a Major Leaguer, with his OPS dropping to just .679 and his wRC+ (81) dipping below league-average 100 for the first time in his career. And given that he doesn’t offer anything defensively, Davis’s value as a player is more sensitive to the fluctuations of his bat, and any slump becomes more pronounced. His value was always going to be limited to the offensive side—the A’s knew that when they signed him, but they couldn’t have foreseen such a sudden and steep fall from grace. But what was the root of his 2019 shortcomings, and what are the chances that Davis can right the ship in 2020 (whenever baseball does return) and be the slugger we’ve come to expect?
Beneath the surface, the striking difference between the 2019 version of Khris Davis and his previous years is that his exit velocity numbers slipped from elite to merely good. From 2016-2018, Davis’s first three years in Oakland, his average exit velocity ranked in the 94th percentile or better every year; in 2019, his 90.1 mph average placed him in only the top 30% of players. That’s still solid, no doubt, but for a player whose game is predicated almost entirely on power, that decline is considerably more significant. Davis has never been a batting average or OBP guy, so every tick off the exit velocity metric is important.
This worked against Davis in combination with a lessened ability to elevate the ball: along with the exit velocity numbers, Davis’s average launch angle on batted balls lowered from 18.1 to 13.2 degrees. Consequently, Davis saw his fly ball rate drop from 48.8% in 2018 to 37.4% last year, his lowest mark since 2013 when he was a Brewer. And of course, sacrificing fly balls comes with a corresponding jump in line drives and ground balls, which are markedly less valuable to a slugger like Davis—especially when he isn’t hitting the ball with as much authority as in years past.
Even when he did hit the ball in the air, he wasn’t doing as much damage as we’re used to seeing (which is even more unusual in 2019, given the league-wide power surge fueled by a jumpy baseball). And most of the drop-off came in a particular category: fly balls to the opposite field. Davis is a prolific opposite-field hitter, and it’s one of the traits that makes his power stand out; he hit 16 oppo homers in 2018 alone, more than anybody this side of J.D. Martinez. Last year, though, his wOBA on opposite-field fly balls was just .264, down from the astronomical .489 he posted the year prior. In essence, Khrush’s oppo power—a staple of his power game—became a non-factor, and anything in the air needed to be pulled.
As for his approach on a more micro scale, he swung the bat more than ever last year, especially at pitches in the zone: his 82.2% swing rate on pitches in the strike zone was the highest of his career, and his overall swing rate the second-highest. But Davis has lived in that neighborhood for his entire Athletics tenure, and it hasn’t stopped him from hitting in the past. Anyway, attacking hittable pitches is a good thing, and he doesn’t get exploited by going after too many bad pitches; his chase rate is just about league average. Moreover, that change hasn’t had any effect on his ability to make contact, and it hasn’t produced a precipitous change to either his walk or strikeout rate, which both sat right about where they were the year before.
So, what’s to blame for the sharp decline in production? It seems unlikely that a player in his early 30s, who just a year earlier mashed 48 home runs, could be sapped of his strength so suddenly. Career designated hitters like Nelson Cruz and Edwin Encarnación have maintained their pop into their late-30s; why should Davis be any different? It’d be more appropriate to chalk Davis’s struggles up to injuries: he was able to play in just 133 games for the A’s—the fewest in his Oakland tenure—and likely dealt with nagging consequences of oblique and hand injuries, both of which are notoriously troublesome for hitters. And it makes sense that with lingering hand problems, opposite field power would be one of the first things to go.
The oblique injury occurred in early May, while the hand issue dates to a HBP in late June. Sure enough, Davis’s three worst months in terms of OPS were July, August, and September. And trying to play through those injuries probably didn’t help things any. But with a full offseason (and more) to heal up the oblique and hand, the hope is that the Athletics will be able to count on a fully-healthy Davis to anchor the middle of their lineup for another postseason bid. The bet here is that Davis will be able to re-establish the consistent production he maintained for his first three years in Oakland.
The 2019 A’s were still able to succeed without much of the production they relied upon from Davis in 2018, thanks in part to the continued offensive maturation of Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, and Marcus Semien, as well as unexpected contributions from a host of low-profile hitters like Mark Canha. Their stout bullpen and patchwork rotation of misfits managed to prevent runs like the American League powerhouses, and with young guns A.J. Puk and Jesús Luzardo on hand and here to stay, they expect more of the same in 2020. Davis could be the missing ingredient to that equation, and another year of elite power output might make the difference between a third consecutive Wild Card exit and a deeper playoff run.
The Marlins Built An Interesting Rotation Via Trade
The Marlins’ rotation has a collection of young hurlers with plenty to like. It’s not a group chock full of certainty, but the unit performed reasonably last season and comes with varying degrees of future upside. Four of the team’s starters came up in trade rumors over the offseason, but the Fish elected to hold onto all of them.
Taking a look at the options on hand, a common thread emerges. Most of the Marlins’ hurlers were acquired via trade. Of the club’s projected rotation at Roster Resource, only José Ureña was signed as an amateur. To some extent, that’s expected for an organization that has spent a good portion of the past two decades selling off pieces for future assets. For the most part, though, the club’s starters came over as relatively unheralded trade pieces. Whether because of quality scouting, player development or a mere string of good luck, the Fish have turned a few under-the-radar prospects into decent MLB starters.
Staff leader Sandy Alcantara came over from the Cardinals in the Marcell Ozuna trade. He and Magneuris Sierra co-headlined that deal, but Alcantara’s early career results dwarf those of his outfield counterpart. The 24-year-old has a 3.83 ERA in 239.2 innings. His strikeout and walk numbers are unimpressive, but Alcantara has done well at avoiding hard contact. He’s miscast as a staff ace, but he alone would’ve been a solid return for two years of Ozuna (more on that in a bit).
Caleb Smith and Pablo López were further off the radar at the time of their respective acquisitions. Smith, a former fourteenth-round pick who never ranked among the Yankees’ top thirty prospects at Baseball America, was acquired alongside first baseman Garrett Cooper for pitching prospect Mike King and international bonus pool space in 2017. Smith had performed well in the high minors in the New York system, but it’s doubtful anyone would have foreseen him posting a 25.9% strikeout rate and 12.3% swinging strike rate in his first 249.1 MLB innings. Unlike Alcantara, Smith gives up a lot of authoritative contact, but his swing-and-miss stuff is no doubt intriguing.
López, meanwhile, was a low-level flier acquired from Seattle in 2017 as part of a package for David Phelps. Injuries limited Phelps to just ten appearances as a Mariner, while López looks to be a solid long-term rotation piece in Miami. He throws a ton of strikes, induces a fair amount of grounders, and ran a serviceable 20.3% strikeout rate last season.
Jordan Yamamoto was the fourth piece in the four-player package acquired from the Brewers for Christian Yelich. That deal turned sour quickly, but Yamamoto had a decent fifteen start cameo in 2019. His long-term future’s still up in the air, but he’s an interesting arm to have in the mix. Prospects Nick Neidert and Robert Dugger were acquired from the Mariners for Dee Gordon and are near-ready rotation depth pieces.
The best under-the-radar starter the Marlins have acquired in the last few years is the one they’ve since traded away. Zac Gallen was the third piece of the Ozuna package, but his stock has skyrocketed since. After combining for a 2.93 ERA in 245.1 Triple-A innings, Gallen had a strong seven start MLB debut in Miami. The Marlins flipped him to the D-Backs for shortstop prospect Jazz Chisholm, Baseball America’s #88 overall prospect, last July. However one feels about the Gallen-Chisholm swap, it’s clear the right-hander was a fantastic get as the tertiary piece from St. Louis.
It’s been less than smooth sailing for the Marlins in a number of ways in recent years. But the Miami organization has picked up a few notable starting pitchers from elsewhere along the way. Whether some or all of these young arms will form the core of the Marlins’ next contending club or themselves wind up on the move for future assets remains to be seen.
Padres’ Offseason Acquisition Could Be Poised For Breakout
The Padres have been on the hunt for long-term outfield pieces for a while. Over the past five years, the Friars have trotted out ten different Opening Day starters on the grass. Only Manuel Margot (three times), Wil Myers and Matt Kemp (two apiece) had garnered multiple Opening Day opportunities in that time. Evidently, they weren’t sold on their 2019 group, either. Of the four outfielders with the most playing time for the Friars last season, three are gone. Hunter Renfroe and Margot were sent to the Rays in separate deals, while Franmil Reyes was traded to the Indians in last summer’s three-team blockbuster. Only Myers is still around, and that’s seemingly because the club found his contract ($67.5MM remaining over three years) too difficult to move.
Yet the club acted decisively to solidify the outfield this offseason. Tommy Pham came over from Tampa Bay in the Renfroe deal. He’s a known commodity who should shore up left field for the next two years, his final seasons of arbitration control. More interesting from a long-term perspective is Trent Grisham. The 23-year-old was acquired from the Brewers in November in a four-player deal that cost the Pads prized young infielder Luis Urías and starter Eric Lauer.
A first-round pick (15th overall) out of a Texas high school in 2015, Grisham’s pro career got off to a bit of a rocky start. Baseball America’s #49 overall prospect after his draft year, his stock fell in the eyes of evaluators with each passing season. High strikeout rates in the low minors combined with relatively little power production to tamp down his offensive output. He always drew an elite number of walks, but it was fair to question whether that would continue against higher-level pitchers.
In 2017, Grisham seemingly turned a corner. He increased his fly ball rate by ten percentage points from the year prior. Not only did he maintain that ability the following year, he upped it another six points in his first crack at Double-A. Things fully clicked last season, when Grisham maintained his fly ball oriented batted ball profile while cutting his strikeouts four points. All the while, he managed to maintain his elite walk rates. In 283 plate appearances in the pitcher-friendly Southern League, Grisham hit .254/.371/.504 with a career-high 13 home runs. He matched those 13 homers in a month-plus in the PCL before earning an August call to the majors.
With only 183 MLB plate appearances under his belt, Grisham certainly doesn’t have a long track record at the highest level. Early indications, though, are he’ll carry over much of that minor-league approach. He remains exceptionally patient. That willingness to run deep counts will probably always lead to a fair amount of strikeouts, but Grisham made contact at a league average rate in the big leagues when he did swing. He also showed surprising speed, ranking in the 93rd percentile leaguewide, per Statcast.
To some, Grisham’s probably only known for his costly error in right field in last season’s NL Wild Card game. That unfortunately proved to be the final image of his Milwaukee career, but Brewers GM David Stearns shot down any notion (via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com) that one play had anything to do with the trade. No doubt, the left-handed hitter’s performance track record and physical gifts weigh heavier on decision-makers’ minds than a single misplay, no matter how high-profile.
MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell reported last month Grisham had the inside track at the Padres’ center field job. If/when the 2020 season resumes, that presumably would still be the plan. San Diego no doubt hopes his impressive high-minors performance will translate into an MLB-ready, long-term outfield fixture.
Jerry Dipoto Discusses Austin Adams, Mitch Haniger
Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto provided updates on the recoveries of a pair of injured players (via Greg Johns of MLB.com). Right-handed reliever Austin L. Adams is progressing well in his rehab from surgery to repair a torn ACL. While Adams was placed on the 60-day injured list in February, Dipoto said there’s now a real chance he could be ready whenever MLB returns from the coronavirus hiatus (assuming it does at all this season). As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored in detail last week, the relatively unheralded 28-year-old quietly emerged as a relief weapon for manager Scott Servais last season.
Unfortunately, progress seemingly hasn’t been as rapid for outfielder Mitch Haniger. He’s still limited to walking and exercise as he recovers from a pair of offseason surgeries, Dipoto told Johns. The GM stressed that Haniger did not suffer a further setback; rather, his ramp-up was always expected to be slow. There’s still no timetable on his potential return.
The 29-year-old Haniger had emerged as a key long-term asset for the Seattle organization before myriad injuries over the past year knocked him off course. From 2017-18, Haniger hit .284/.361/.492 with 42 home runs (134 wRC+). He’ll be looking to bounce back after a ruptured testicle limited him to 283 plate appearances last year.
Revisiting The Ozzie Albies Extension
Today marks the one-year anniversary of a deal that looks like it’ll pay dividends for years to come. On April 11, 2019, the Braves and second baseman Ozzie Albies agreed on an extension that could keep the dynamic switch-hitter in Atlanta through 2027.
Albies, who was under team control through 2023 prior to the deal, received a $1MM salary in 2019. He’ll match that this season, take home $3MM in 2021, $5MM in 2022, and $7MM apiece from 2023-25. The Braves hold a pair of $7MM club options (the first with a $4MM buyout) for the 2026 and 2027 seasons. All told, the deal guaranteed Albies just $35MM with a maximum payout of $45MM over nine seasons.
Even at the time, those were shockingly low numbers for a player of Albies’ promise. The former top prospect had compiled a .272/.323/.456 line (107 wRC+) through his first 977 MLB plate appearances. Combined with strong baserunning and keystone defense, Albies had amassed upwards of five wins above replacement before his 22nd birthday.
As MLBTR’s Steve Adams wrote at the time, the deal looked exceptionally lopsided in the club’s favor:
“Frankly, this seems like the type of deal that an agent would strongly advise his client not to take. Perhaps Albies simply wanted to take the largest guarantee the Braves were willing to offer; he received just a $350K signing bonus as a prospect, after all, and his career earnings to date may not even total seven figures. From a purely human standpoint, it’s hard for any 22-year-old player without much in the way of career earnings to rebuff $35MM under the guise that he’ll earn more on a year-to-year basis beginning 24 months down the line. Presumably, all of the points made here were spelled out to Albies before he made what amounts to a life-altering decision.”
While the deal already looked like a coup for the club, Albies took his game to another level in 2019. He played in 160 games and hit .295/.352/.500 (117 wRC+) with an NL-best 189 hits. That was enough to earn him the Silver Slugger among NL second baseman. There could’ve also been an argument for him to win a Gold Glove (although Kolten Wong was no doubt a deserving winner). Albies racked up eleven defensive runs saved in 2019, bringing him to 28 runs above-average for his career by that metric. All told, he was worth about five wins above replacement, per both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference.
That marked a welcome step forward from Albies’ previous level of production at the plate. But it was hardly out-of-the-blue. He’d long shown the talent to be a plus hitter with strong contributions as a baserunner and defender. He faded offensively down the stretch in 2018, but it was reasonable to project further growth with reps against MLB pitching and physical maturation.
For the Braves, the Albies extension (as well as the one signed by Ronald Acuña, Jr.) looks like a slam dunk. It’s hard to give the Alex Anthopoulos-led front office too much credit; every team in baseball presumably would’ve signed up for the same deal if given the opportunity, even after Albies’ late-2018 swoon. This wasn’t a front office taking a gamble on an unknown, unheralded player they loved. The consensus was Albies was a high-level talent. Indeed, as Steve explored at the time, a $50MM guarantee would have been more in line with deals signed by comparable players in the 1+ service class, including Christian Yelich and Andrelton Simmons. Some commentators (including Jon Tayler, then at Sports Illustrated, and Michael Baumann of the Ringer) even questioned the team’s ethics in offering the deal.
Albies, of course, was well within his right to value the upfront multi-million dollar guarantee. He hasn’t expressed any public regret since. Yet the extension arguably looks even more team-friendly now than it did at the time. Not only did Albies post a career year in 2019, last offseason’s free agent market was much stronger than the previous two. Whether the abnormally quiet markets of 2017-18 and 2018-19 impacted Albies’ decision isn’t clear, but they no doubt played a role in the high volume of spring 2019 extensions signed leaguewide. (Admittedly, it’s unclear precisely how future markets will respond to lost revenue related to the coronavirus-forced hiatus).
Albies figures to be penciled into Atlanta’s lineup at minimal rates for the next eight years. It’s plausible to project even more offense as he enters his mid-20’s, particularly if he can rein in his plate discipline a bit. Even if he’s already reached his peak, he’d be among MLB’s biggest bargains. He and Acuña should comprise one of the game’s most formidable one-two punches for a good chunk of the next decade.
Recapping Farhan Zaidi’s Trades As Giants’ President
Farhan Zaidi was hired as the Giants’ president of baseball operations from the archrival Dodgers in November 2018. The club has largely eschewed headline-grabbing moves since, but the front office has been as active as any on the waiver wire. That emphasis on low-cost additions to the margins of the roster has extended to the trade market. It’s still too early to judge Zaidi’s overall body of work, but some of the lesser-heralded names have produced strong early returns.
Equally as noteworthy as the deals Zaidi has made are the ones he hasn’t. The club didn’t move impending free agents Madison Bumgarner or Will Smith at last summer’s deadline. In Zaidi’s defense, the club sat at 55-53 last July 31, just two games back of the second NL Wild Card (and eventual World Series champion) Nationals. They surely also considered the draft compensation they were in line to receive this winter if each signed elsewhere as qualified free agents (as both ultimately did). Yet the Giants never looked especially likely to make a deep playoff run (Fangraphs gave them just a 5.9% shot of reaching the postseason at the time). There was certainly a case to be made they should’ve acted as a decisive seller. Instead, they pursued something of a middle-ground, trading away a few notable relievers while also making further marginal acquisitions.
With that second-guessing out of the way, we’ll turn to the moves Zaidi’s front office has struck since he took charge in SF (excluding the most minor transactions).
2018-19 Offseason
- Acquired RHP Trevor Gott from Nationals for cash considerations
- Acquired INF/OF Connor Joe from Reds for RHP Jordan Johnson and cash considerations
- Acquired OF Mike Yastrzemski from Orioles for RHP Tyler Herb
- Acquired LHP Williams Jerez from Angels for RHP Chris Stratton
2019 Season
- Acquired RHP Jesus Ozoria from Mariners for C Tom Murphy
- Acquired OF Kevin Pillar from Blue Jays for RHP Derek Law, INF/OF Alen Hanson and RHP Juan De Paula
- Acquired 1B/OF Tyler Austin from Twins for OF Malique Ziegler
- Acquired OF Alex Dickerson from Padres for RHP Franklin Van Gurp
- Acquired RHP Prelander Berroa, OF Jaylin Davis and RHP Kai-Wei Teng from Twins for RHP Sam Dyson
- Acquired IF/OF Mauircio Dubon from Brewers for LHP Drew Pomeranz and RHP Ray Black
- Acquired RHP Tristan Beck and RHP Dan Winkler from Braves for RHP Mark Melancon
- Acquired 2B Scooter Gennett from Reds for cash considerations
- Acquired OF Joe McCarthy from Rays for LHP Jacob Lopez
2019-20 Offseason
- Acquired IF Will Wilson and INF Zack Cozart (released thereafter) from Angels for LHP Garrett Williams
How would you grade Zaidi’s first year-plus on the trade market? (Poll link for app users).
Curious to look back on additional GMs and their trade histories?
We’ve already polled on Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen, recently fired Astros president Jeff Luhnow, Brewers president of baseball ops David Stearns, Angels GM Billy Eppler, Rockies GM Jeff Bridich, Tigers GM Al Avila, Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos, Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins, Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto, Phillies GM Matt Klentak, Padres GM A.J. Preller, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, Rays GM Erik Neander, ex-Red Sox front office leader Dave Dombrowski, Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen, Reds GM Dick Williams, Orioles GM Mike Elias and former Diamondbacks GM Dave Stewart.
What If The Mariners Had Drafted Anthony Rendon?
It could have easily been Anthony Rendon. The media certainly believed the Mariners would draft Rice’s star third baseman with the second overall draft pick in 2011, despite injury concerns. Former Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik recently told Corey Brock of The Athletic, “We liked Rendon…a lot. Going into the draft, he was probably the player a lot of people thought we were going to take…and we did, too.”
Most observers expected the Pirates to use the first overall pick on UCLA righty Gerrit Cole, and indeed they did. That scenario left two strong possibilities for the Mariners: Rendon, and University of Virginia lefty Danny Hultzen. Rendon was considered by some to be the top talent in the 2011 draft even with recent ankle and shoulder injuries. But those injuries loomed large for the Mariners, with Zduriencik telling Brock, “Anthony had some physical issues. He’d been hurt the year before and was limited somewhat. There were a few things that were concerning.”
You can debate whether it’s fair to criticize the Mariners’ choice of Hultzen in hindsight. Zduriencik told Brock, “Danny was the guy who everyone loved. It made a lot of sense.” But while Hultzen was by no means a reach or a bad pick at the time, he was considered the “safe” choice. After Day 1 of the draft, Keith Law (then of ESPN) said the Mariners “shock[ed] everyone,” elaborating, “I’m not criticizing Hultzen in the least here, but I think drafting at No. 2 overall is a rare chance to go for ceiling, and the Mariners didn’t do that. They took a very safe, very good college pitcher who will move quickly but doesn’t have No. 1 starter upside.” Unfortunately, even the safest pitchers carry extreme risk, and Hultzen’s career was all but wiped out by shoulder issues.
No one could have foreseen that the draft’s best player would turn out to be Mookie Betts, as the Red Sox landed him 172nd overall. But the draft gurus were correct on Rendon, who ultimately has been the second-most productive member of his draft class by measure of Baseball-Reference WAR. And that was a draft that included Cole, Francisco Lindor (also of interest to the Mariners), George Springer, Trevor Story, Javier Baez, and many other excellent players.
To the surprise of the baseball world, the Pirates, Mariners, Diamondbacks, Orioles, and Royals all decided to pass on Rendon. Maybe it was the ankle and shoulder injuries, maybe it was adviser Scott Boras, but whatever the reason, Nationals GM Mike Rizzo was “pleasantly surprised” when Rendon fell all the way to the sixth spot. The Nationals went with who they considered to be the best player available, even with Ryan Zimmerman entrenched at third base. That choice paid off in a huge way for the Nationals. But with apologies to Mariners fans, let’s consider an alternate universe where Zduriencik called Rendon’s name instead of Hultzen’s on June 6th, 2011.
Rendon reached the Majors in 2013 and had his first highly productive season in 2014. By that point, Kyle Seager was already established as the Mariners’ third baseman. Seager’s 18.4 fWAR run from 2013-16 was actually much better than what Rendon did, albeit with a slightly lower ceiling. As with the Nationals, Rendon would have likely been shifted to second base as a rookie to accommodate the incumbent third baseman.
The Mariners had used the second overall pick in the 2009 draft on Dustin Ackley, whom they decided to shift to second base the following year. Ackley never hit like the Mariners (and everyone else) expected him to, nor did he take to playing second base, so the club gradually shifted him to the outfield starting in 2013. Second base would have been the primary infield opening for a top prospect, since Brad Miller came up around the same time to take over at shortstop. In real life, the Mariners had a quality middle infield prospect coming in Nick Franklin. Franklin was capable of playing shortstop but seen as more of a second baseman. Even with Ackley in the outfield and Miller at shortstop, Seager’s success at the hot corner would likely have left Rendon and Franklin to battle for the Mariners’ second base job as rookies in 2013.
Franklin was a top 50 prospect prior to 2013 and he had an OK showing as a rookie that year, but it wasn’t enough to prevent the Mariners from signing Robinson Cano to a franchise-altering ten-year, $240MM free agent contract that offseason. Rendon’s real-life rookie showing was similarly mediocre, though he was more highly-regarded than Franklin.
Franklin became a popular trade chip once Cano signed in Seattle. The Mariners ultimately parted him at the 2014 trade deadline in the deal that netted them center fielder Austin Jackson and landed David Price in Detroit. With Cano in the fold, would the Mariners have traded Franklin, Rendon, or both? And when? The Mariners may have been more willing to part with at least one of them during the offseason rather than at the trade deadline, and were known to have interest in Price.
Or, would the presence of two promising second basemen have led the Mariners to spend their money elsewhere? Though Cano was the biggest fish that winter, that was also the point where the Yankees signed Masahiro Tanaka and Jacoby Ellsbury and the Rangers signed Shin-Soo Choo. The Mariners never seemed to be in play for Ellsbury despite his Northwest roots, but Tanaka or Choo would have been viable financially if not for the Cano signing. In the end, Cano performed well in his five seasons with the Mariners, and though they had to include Edwin Diaz and a lot of cash, Cano was part of the reason the Mets were willing to part with Jarred Kelenic in December 2018 (more on that here). In a roundabout way, if the Mariners had drafted Rendon, they might not have Kelenic now … though they might have other appealing players instead.
If the Mariners’ hypothetical second base surplus would have prevented them from trying to upgrade the position in the 2013-14 offseason, what would have become of Cano? A return to the Bronx was the prevailing guess in November of 2013, yet the Yankees reportedly topped out at a $175MM offer for Cano despite going on a spending spree on other players. Would Cano have swallowed that alleged lack of respect and remained a Yankee? Or would some other team have stepped up to fill the void?
The Dodgers sat out the Cano bidding that winter. The Mets took a meeting with Cano’s agent Brodie Van Wagenen, their future GM, but the team might have just wanted the chance to meet Jay-Z. Beyond the Yankees and Mariners, there was never another serious suitor for Cano that winter, at least as it was known to the public. If somehow the hypothetical presence of Rendon would have reduced the Mariners’ interest in Cano, the logical conclusion is that he would have returned to the Yankees — at much less than $240MM.
But the Mariners went into that winter intending to make a big splash, and it’s quite possible they would have traded Franklin for pitching, kept Rendon, and signed Cano. In reality the Cano signing mostly tapped out the Mariners’ budget, and they traded for the affordable Logan Morrison to split time at first base with Justin Smoak in 2014. Though it would been a waste of his defensive talents, might the Mariners have found a temporary home for Rendon at first base? The 2014 Mariners fell one win shy of a Wild Card berth, a season in which Rendon was worth 6.4 fWAR while Morrison and Smoak combined for 0.6. It’s not too hard to picture a 2014 Mariners club with Rendon, Cano, and a pitcher acquired for Franklin overtaking the Royals in the Wild Card game and maybe even making a deep playoff run.
Even a 2014 playoff run might not have been enough to save Zduriencik’s job, given all the things that went wrong in 2015. So even in our alternate Mariners universe, Jerry Dipoto still takes over as GM in 2015 and remakes the team in his image. Rendon might have been enough to put the Mariners in the playoffs in 2016 and/or ’18, changing the trajectory of the franchise. In reality, the Mariners continue to suffer through the longest postseason drought in the sport.
The implications of the Mariners choosing Hultzen over Rendon nine years ago can make your head spin, and we didn’t dive into the hypothetical consequences of the Yankees keeping Cano, the Nationals drafting someone else sixth overall, or the Diamondbacks, Orioles, or Royals drafting Hultzen instead of Trevor Bauer, Dylan Bundy, and Bubba Starling. Feel free to do so in the comments or let us know how you think things might have played out had the Mariners drafted Rendon.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Quick Hits: Braves, Rays, Cubs, White Sox
The Braves have pledged to continue paying their employees—both full-time and part-time—through May 31, according to Kiley McDaniel of ESPN. Several teams extended a stipend to employees through March, but the Braves are the first team that will compensate its staff through the end of this month, let alone the end of May. McDaniel would go on to clarify in a later Tweet that gameday employees, whose pay is normally tied to games, will be paid in accordance with the $1MM fund established last month. However, workers whose earnings aren’t attached to games will be paid as usual. It’s encouraging that teams are willing to offer a helpful hand to their staff, and it’s possible that more teams will follow in the Braves’ footsteps. And while there are plenty of problems that still need solving, this kind of decision can go a long way towards relieving the stress that comes with these circumstances.
- The Rays, meanwhile, have a plan for how they’ll divvy up the $1MM fund established by all 30 MLB teams in March, as explained by Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Some 1,200 Rays gameday staffers will receive a one-time payment to help support them during the delayed season: Team employees (ushers, guest services, etc.) will receive $1,000 and concessions workers, security, and others will receive $500.
- Similarly, Chicago’s Cubs and White Sox have offered grants of $500 to their part-time ballpark employees as their means of allocating the aforementioned $1MM fund, writes The Athletic’s Jon Greenberg. Importantly, Cubs VP of Communication tells Greenberg that the Cubs’ fund “will go way beyond a million,” but at the same time is uncertain whether there will be a second round of payouts to employees. It’s notable that the referenced $1MM figure was established merely as a baseline, and it’s possible—perhaps even likely—that many teams will go above and beyond that threshold, especially depending on the length of the season delay, which can have a profound impact on the livelihood of the thousands of employees who make MLB games possible.
