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Yasiel Puig Says Multiple Teams Have Made Offers

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Lest we forget, there are a number of established big-leaguers who went unsigned this winter and are still available to MLB teams. And while there aren’t any Dallas Keuchels or Craig Kimbrels out there, teams could still find some value in free agency. Undoubtedly, the biggest name still on the market is 29-year-old outfielder Yasiel Puig. The former Dodger, who is no longer the dynamite rookie who burst onto the scene in 2013, had some trouble securing a deal during the winter, and the delayed season means that he’ll have to spend more time without a team.

It was reported that Puig turned down a $10MM contract offer from a National League team during the offseason, and the consensus is that it was the Marlins who made that offer. But Puig said in an interview with Jorge Ebro of el Nuevo Herald that there are teams besides the Marlins that have offered him a deal since then. He says that the Marlins were among the first to make an offer, adding that his price tag was higher for Miami, where his native Cuban fanbase might unreasonably expect him to go 5-for-5 every night.

Of course, with rosters currently frozen and transactions on hold, Puig won’t be able to sign until MLB has set a date for Opening Day and baseball operations are able to operate as normal. With that said, there may be enough interest that when that time comes, Puig’s extended free agency will come to an end.

We don’t know how many teams have made offers, or the identities of those teams. Many teams who entered the offseason with outfield needs have already addressed those positions, so there are relatively few good fits remaining for Puig. Still, the Giants have had their name floated as a team that could be in the market for Puig’s services and were rumored to be considering him before the stoppage. Speculatively, a rebuilding team like the Tigers might be in the mix, but there hasn’t been anything concrete to suggest that.

Puig said that he doesn’t think there will be an MLB season in 2020, but if there is, he will be on the field for a team. And if not, he’s confident he’ll be back in 2021. There’s no doubt that he brings a unique spice to the game, so we hope that he finds a way onto an MLB roster by the time baseball is back.

Which Pitchers Should Fear Robot Umpires?

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The future of baseball is filled with uncertainty these days, but there is one thing we do know about the future of the sport: robot umpires are coming!

Just ask Jayson Stark of the Athletic, who wrote back in January, “MLB is moving purposefully toward the world of electronic strike zones. And now that even the umpires’ union has pledged its cooperation, it’s almost a sure bet: This. Is. Happening.”

Stark’s not new to the robot revolution, as he’s written about the issue here and here as well. The fact is, electronic strike zones are already being implemented through trials in the Atlantic League and Spring Training. The fact that umpires have given their okay to begin testing makes their eventual implementation all but guaranteed.

Not only are electronic strike zones on their way, but it could happen sooner than you think. Stark suggests they’ll be in the majors potentially as early as 2022. Given that most prospects taken in the draft project to make their debuts in 3-5 years, teams are already drafting with the world of electronic strike zones firmly in their sights.

With this change coming, let’s table for a moment the many technical issues the league will face and instead consider the practical implications for the players. As I wrote after Stark’s report back in January, “The mental games used to inch the strike zone this way or that has long been a tool of the game’s best – from the hitters whose impeccable eye define it, to the pitchers’ whose pinpoint control push to expand it – but an automated zone will all but abolish the in-game politicking of the strike zone, giving hitters a new advantage they have long been without: certainty.” Per Statcast data, major league hitters swung at 33 pitches outside the zone per game in 2019 (~80,000 total for the year). It’s no surprise hitters struggle with zone control because the umpires themselves don’t always have a clear conception of where the zone lies. 

Roughly a quarter of all called third strikes in 2019 were on pitches that landed outside the zone. Home plate umpires made an average of 14 incorrect calls per game in 2019, which tracks with this Boston University study that looked at umpire accuracy going back more than ten seasons. The fact is, umpire error is making a huge impact on the game on a daily basis. The batter/pitcher relationship is the essential, critical matchup of the game. When this relationship loses integrity, the game itself suffers from existential crises. The whole reason umpires exist is to keep that crisis at bay. Most of us, after all, watch the game to see the talent of the batters and pitchers involved – not the umpires. Like it or not, when an umpire fails to properly adjudicate – when he misses a call – it muddies the waters of the game’s foundational competition.

Or in baseball terms, when ahead in the count, batters reached base at a .477 OBP clip in 2019. When behind in the count, that number drops to .209 OBP. That’s the difference between an absolute superstar and a sub-replacement-level hitter. When a batter falls behind because the umpire gifted a strike to the pitcher, the whole at-bat changes. The nature of the competition changes.

Digging into the data made available through Statcast, it’s not that difficult to find those incorrect calls. Build a book of umpire accuracy metrics for each pitcher by year, and we can get some clarity on how electronic strike zones are going to affect pitchers. The first question is this: are human umpires gifting more strikes to a particular kind of pitcher? To fireballers or workhorses or control artists or power pitchers?

If you’re interesting in walking through the data science behind this question, feel free to check out a video walkthrough of the process here, but the most interesting takeaway was this: there were four differentiating attributes of those pitchers who tended to get extra strikes versus those who did not: velocity, spin, role, and handedness.

Umpires tend to gift more strikes to pitchers with lower velocity, lower spin, to starters more than relievers, and to righties more than lefties. This makes sense if we think in terms of umpire vision. Given the active nature of a strike call versus the passive nature of a ball call, even a moment of uncertainty may lead an umpire to letting a strike go by without making a call. It makes sense, then, that umps might be more liberal with strike calls when they can see the ball more clearly. 

The league has trended towards higher velocity, higher spin pitchers in part because those pitches are more difficult for the batter to pick up, both because of their speed, and because the higher spin rate generally leads to a higher effective speed. It makes sense, then, that umpires would have difficulty picking up these pitches as well. Umpires may also have an itchier trigger finger with starters, whom they’re more comfortable with because they see them for longer periods of time, and with right-handers, who at least anecdotally, have less movement on their ball than southpaws.

Let’s look at some examples. Jon Lester has been one of the most consistently umpire-aided pitchers in the league. He runs counter to type by being left-handed, but those who’ve spent time watching Cubs games the last few seasons will tell you, Lester complains from pitch one and doesn’t stop griping until the ball is forcibly removed from his hand. He’s a bully, no doubt, and he bullies his way to extra strikes whenever possible. In 2019, roughly 25% of Lester’s called strikes were on pitches that landed outside the zone (versus ~17% average). He also had a very low percentage of “Stolen Strikes.” Of all the pitches he threw in 2019 at which the batter did not swing, only 2.4% of them were balls that should have been called strikes. 

On the other side, we find one of baseball’s premier villains: Aroldis Chapman. Chapman fits the mold of a guy that umpires aren’t likely to help out. He’s 99th percentile in fastball velocity, 92nd percentile in fastball spin, he’s a lefty, and he only pitches for usually an inning at a time at the highest-leverage moments of the game. Of all the pitches he threw in 2019 when the batter did not swing, he was “gifted a strike” on just 2.4% of those pitches, while 5.4% of those were “Stolen Strikes.”

There are other factors of course, beyond the velocity, spin, role, and handedness of the pitcher. Catcher framing certainly has an impact, and individual umpires themselves will have their own conscious or subconscious biases. But as we look ahead to a world of robot umpires, it does seem that lower velocity starters – workhorses and control artists – are going to lose the little bit of leeway that umpires are giving them now, whereas closers and firemen, guys with amazing pure stuff like Chapman will be even more valuable because they’re going to start getting some calls that umpires aren’t giving him now.

Quick Hits: Phillies, Employee Pay, Cardinals, Goldschmidt, Pirates, Shelton, Kela

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Phillies owner John Middleton informed the team’s employees Friday that no one will be laid off or forced to take a pay cut through at least the end of May, Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reports. “I am neither an epidemiologist nor a public policy maker, but I do know our industry, and it is my sincere belief that baseball will be played this year,” Middleton wrote in a letter, adding that there’s no reason to reduce the club’s budget when he’s under the impression that “a meaningful number of games” will take place in 2020. The Phillies are just the second team to commit to no cuts through May, joining the division-rival Braves. More teams are expected to follow, however, with the Giants the latest team to make the commitment, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.

  • The Cardinals’ Paul Goldschmidt has set up camp in his Jupiter-area home during the quarantine, but he’s finding new ways to keep his head in the game. Thanks to a virtual reality product from WIN Reality, Goldschmidt can simulate at-bats against any pitcher in the game, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Goldschmidt got enough exposure to live pitching in spring training to fully test his new virtual reality gear, and he came away impressed with its accuracy. Goldy is working out in more traditional ways as well, but the VR gear is giving him an opportunity to rest his elbow while still simulating game experience.
  • The Pirates under Clint Hurdle became known for contentious run-ins with other teams due to their proclivity for throwing up and in. The bad rap was furthered by pitchers Gerrit Cole and Tyler Glasnow developing into aces once having left Pittsburgh. But Derek Shelton runs the dugout in Pittsburgh now, and it remains to be seen how the culture will change under new leadership. Shelton spoke to some of his tendencies, however, including how he will let statistics and the extenuating circumstances determine how often he lets his starters go through a lineup a third time (as much as how the pitcher is performing on any given day), per Mike Persak of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Shelton also spoke about the closer role, where he expects Keone Kela to serve as a traditional closer.

The Twins’ Breakout Slugger

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Last July, a happier time when something called Major League Baseball was actually taking place, I wrote a piece singing the praises of Twins catcher Mitch Garver. At that point, Garver was amid a breakout season in which he served as a key member of the Twins’ high-powered offense, aka the Bomba Squad – a unit that piled up an all-time record 307 home runs. Garver contributed about 10 percent of those, totaling 31 and finishing as one of five Twins who hit 30 or more.

Garver wasn’t just a one-trick pony who offered just power last year, either, as he wound up with an outstanding .273/.365/.630 line over his 359 plate appearances. Because he was part of a behind-the-plate timeshare with Jason Castro, Garver made just 93 appearances on the season. That means he hit a homer every three games; he also wound up with a .357 isolated power mark that paced all players who amassed 300-plus trips to the plate (AL MVP Mike Trout and AL Rookie of the Year Yordan Alvarez were his closest competitors).

Speaking of Trout, he has a new teammate in Castro, who will be the Angels’ starting catcher in 2020 if a season ever gets underway. The Twins, meanwhile, are now poised to hand the reins to Garver, whom free-agent addition Alex Avila will back up. Judging by what he did last season, Garver has a chance to end up as the Twins’ most productive catcher since Joe Mauer’s heyday donning the tools of ignorance.

It wasn’t just a matter of Garver posting all-world bottom-line production with the bat last season. He also ranked among Statcast’s top hitters in one important category after another. To name some examples, Garver was in the 85th percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, expected slugging percentage and expected weighted on-base average (.380, compared to a real wOBA of .405). He was also remarkably consistent, evidenced by a 155 wRC+ in the first half and a 154 mark in the second. Furthermore, the right-handed slugger managed numbers that were easily above average against lefties and righties alike (198 wRC+ versus LHPs, 130 off RHPs).

It’s not easy to find a red flag when it comes to Garver’s 2019 offensive outburst. Adding to his appeal, he performed pretty well behind the plate. Sure, Garver threw out a paltry 16 percent of would-be base stealers (league average was 11 points better), but he did finish a solid 28th in Baseball Prospectus’ Framing Runs Above Average metric and a slightly better 24th as a pitch framer.

All said, the Twins seem to have stumbled on a gem in Garver, who joined the organization as a ninth-round pick in 2013 and who appears to have developed into a formidable all-around contributor. The 29-year-old was quietly one of the reasons the Twins won 101 games and an American League Central title last season. If they’re going to enjoy similar success going forward, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Garver continue to have a big hand in it.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Poll: High-Dollar Relief Signings

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Since we’re left to imagine baseball for the time being, it seems natural to ask for MLBTR reader opinions on what might’ve been. We wouldn’t know much by this point had the season begun as usual, but we’d at least have a look at the health and stuff of the (relatively few) relievers that received big contracts over the offseason.

Let’s run through the $10MM+ bullpen contracts and then get to the question …

Will Smith, LHP: three years, $40MM with Braves — This one cost the Atlanta org draft compensation. And it’s the biggest reliever deal of the winter. But it’s arguably worth it for a guy that turned in a 2.76 ERA with a big 13.2 K/9 in 2019.

Drew Pomeranz, LHP: four years, $34MM with Padres — Everyone’s jaws are still on the floor here, given that Pomeranz nearly washed out with the Giants by the middle of the the ’19 campaign. His second half resurgence as a high-grade reliever was compelling — he not only carried a 1.88 ERA but struck out nearly half the batters he faced — but this was a bold strike for the Friars.

Will Harris, RHP: three years, $24MM with Nationals — He isn’t young and doesn’t have high-octane stuff, but Harris has just plain gotten the job done for quite some time. The veteran spins the ball about as well as anyone and owned a 2.36 ERA in his 297 innings with the Astros.

Chris Martin, RHP: two years, $14MM with Braves — You can save your Coldplay jokes. Martin was absolutely legit in 2019, fanning 65 batters while issuing just a handful of walks and compiling a 3.40 ERA in his 55 2/3 frames.

Daniel Hudson, RHP: two years, $11MM with Nationals — If you focus on the 2.47 ERA he compiled in 73 innings, and add in a glance at his postseason moments, this might look like a complete bargain. But Hudson’s peripherals didn’t support greater earnings than this. It could still be a nice buy if he can keep the momentum going upon his return to D.C.

Dellin Betances, RHP: one year, $10.5MM with Mets — The former star Yankees reliever decided to stay in his native New York on an interesting deal with the cross-town Mets. At his best, he’s a monster that can dominate in multi-inning appearances. But Betances is coming back from some significant injuries and hadn’t regained all his velocity in his brief MLB showing last year.

Blake Treinen, RHP: one year, $10MM with Dodgers — It’s not often a non-tendered player inks for more money than he was projected to earn in arbitration. That it happened here suggests that Treinen — who undeniably possesses thrilling stuff — drew significant interest when he hit the open market.

The question: which of these deals do you think will deliver the most excess value to the team? (Link for app users. Response order randomized.)

When A Braves Superstar Moved Across The Diamond

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While going through the MLBTR archives a little while ago, I came across a June 2017 story that I had completely forgotten about. Title: “Freddie Freeman: “Mindset” Is To Move To Third Base.”

Back then, our own Jeff Todd wrote of the Braves superstar: “Freeman played the hot corner in high school, but the eight-year MLB veteran has lined up exclusively at first base as a professional. Needless to say, this apparent attempt to move back to third in the middle of the season represents quite a surprising turn of events. Freeman says he himself proposed the idea to the team, so obviously he’s on board; it remains unknown just what the organization would need to see to allow him to line up there.”

Freeman’s suggestion came in the wake of a fractured wrist, an injury that sidelined him from May 17 through July 4. The Braves reacted to that injury by acquiring first baseman Matt Adams from the Cardinals for minor league infielder Juan Yepez on May 20. Adams was at times a productive Cardinals hitter from 2012-17, but the club decided he was an unnecessary piece with Matt Carpenter holding down first base.

Initially, the Adams pickup looked like a stroke of genius by the Braves. Adams absolutely raked in their uniform through late June, and with a desire to keep his bat in the lineup, Freeman volunteered to move across the diamond. The Braves, one game under .500 (40-41) when Freeman returned at the halfway point, were willing to give it a shot.

Ultimately, Freeman to third was a short-term experiment. Freeman lasted just 16 games there before manager Brian Snitker announced on Aug. 1 that he’d go back to first on a permanent basis, thanks in part to an injury to left fielder Matt Kemp. Adams, whose bat had cooled off at that point, took Kemp’s place in left but only lasted with the Braves for the rest of the season. He signed with the Nationals after 2017 and has since had two stints with them and another with the Cardinals, but he had to settle for a minor league contract with the Mets this past offseason after a so-so 2019 in Washington.

Freeman, on the other hand, has indeed stayed at first in Atlanta since the team ended his run at the hot corner. And Freeman has remained one of the top hitters in the sport since then, thereby helping the club to back-to-back National League East titles after it spiraled to a dismal 72-90 record in 2017. He’s the owner of a .293/.379/.504 line with 227 home runs (including a career-high 38 in 2019) and 35.7 rWAR/34.6 fWAR since he broke into the majors in 2010. Now 30 years old, Freeman will continue to hold down first for at least a little bit longer in Atlanta, which signed him to an eight-year, $135MM extension prior to 2014. That pact still features another two years and $44MM.

It’s interesting to ponder how the Braves would have handled the corner infield positions during their division-winning seasons had Freeman stuck at third. For instance, would they have ever signed third baseman Josh Donaldson (now a Twin) to a $23MM guarantee prior to last season? Maybe, maybe not. Regardless, Freeman’s ephemeral stint at third will go down as a fun bit of trivia in what has been a tremendous career for the four-time All-Star first baseman.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Mike Clevinger At Full Intensity In Return From Knee Surgery

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Indians righty Mike Clevinger seems to be recovering quite nicely from offseason knee surgery. He tells MLB.com’s Mandy Bell that he’s working at “100 percent intensity now.”

Skipper Terry Francona said yesterday that Clevinger was among the rehabbing Cleveland players making progress. But it seems the ace righty is even further along.

The real challenge faced by Clevinger is more or less the one confronting every other ballplayer. He says he’s “monitoring the progression in the weight room” but otherwise running a mostly normal schedule — within the confines of a pandemic shutdown.

Clevinger says he was “doing beach workouts” before that became untenable. He’s now throwing to a catcher in a “facility that’s clean, sanitized, no one’s going in there.” Clevinger says he’d “like to have more of a set plan,” adding that he understands it just isn’t possible at the moment.

[RELATED: Mike Clevinger: The One That Got Away From The Halos]

The Indians are no doubt keeping a keen interest in Clevinger’s activities. He’s a critical part of the team’s plans, now and in the future. His knee surgery wasn’t serious, but the last thing anyone wants is for some other issue to crop up while he’s finishing off his rehab work and building back up on the mound.

Ace-Off: Buehler v. Bieber

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Two of the preeminent young starters in baseball have emerged in the cities of Los Angeles and Cleveland over the past couple years. With no disrespect to Dodgers great Clayton Kershaw, who’s one of the best to ever take the mound, right-hander Walker Buehler has assumed the mantle of the club’s most valuable starter when you combine age, contract and performance. Meanwhile, the Indians have a similarly enviable rotation piece to build around in righty Shane Bieber, who joined Buehler among the majors’ most productive pitchers in 2019. So, here’s a question that has no wrong answer: If you had to pick one, which of the two would you choose?

To begin, they’re almost the same age, and they’re under team control for the same number of years. The 25-year-old Buehler won’t be eligible for free agency until after 2024. As a Super Two player, he brings one more pre-arbitration campaign to the table (though it won’t matter if there is no 2020 season). Bieber, who will turn 25 next month, is due to reach free agency at the same time, but he’s in his penultimate pre-arb year.

As for on-field results, Buehler has the edge on Bieber thus far in terms of run prevention. Excluding 9 1/3 rough debut innings as a reliever in 2017, Buehler has parlayed a 96 mph-plus fastball into a sterling 2.98 ERA/3.02 FIP with 10.3 K/9 and 2.08 BB/9 across 319 2/3 innings over the past two seasons.

Bieber also began to make his mark in 2018, and while his 4.55 ERA didn’t wow anyone, his peripherals indicated that he deserved better. Although he doesn’t match Buehler’s velocity (Bieber averages 93 mph on his heater), he nonetheless broke out in earnest last season. Bieber notched a 3.28 ERA/3.32 FIP and put up 10.88 K/9 against 1.68 BB/9 in 214 1/3 frames – the second-highest total in the game (only AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander amassed a larger amount) and 32 more than Buehler’s 182 1/3. Buehler had a very similar year otherwise, though, posting a 3.26 ERA/3.01 FIP and recording 10.61 K/9 versus 1.83 BB/9. He further put himself on the map with 12 2/3 exemplary innings of one-run ball in a playoff series loss to the eventual World Series champion Nationals.

It’s obvious there’s a ton to like about this tandem. Buehler and Bieber have not only already established themselves as elite pitchers in their mid-20s, but perhaps elite players in general. Going forward, however, which one would you take to head up your rotation? (Poll link for app users)

Austin Jackson Open To MLB Return

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Long-time MLB outfielder Austin Jackson is open to offers to get back on the field, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports on Twitter. He says he has remained in playing shape and is interested in a potential return.

Jackson only recently turned 33, so he’s not that long in the tooth. But he didn’t appear in the professional ranks in 2019 after nine consecutive MLB campaigns.

As he contemplates a comeback, Jackson says he’s looking for the “right situation” — not just any opportunity, evidently. There’s obviously no chance he’d command a big-league contract at this point, so he’d surely be looking for a minors arrangement of some kind.

It’s somewhat odd to see this news now, in the midst of a pandemic-driven hiatus, given that Spring Training had nearly wrapped up when the season was paused. But Jackson could ultimately hold appeal if a 2020 season is launched. He’s a known commodity and teams could end up needing added depth to facilitate a compressed schedule and unusual situation.

Jackson struggled badly in his last action in the majors, turning in a collective .245/.299/.326 output over 375 plate appearances with the Giants and Mets. But he was quite productive in 2017, when he slashed .318/.387/.482 for the Indians.

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