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MLBPA Rejects MLB’s 2020 Draft Proposal

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Major League Baseball and the MLBPA agreed to the framework of a shortened 2020 amateur draft back in March. As of earlier this week, the event was reportedly set to take place June 10 and consist of five or 10 rounds. However, the union isn’t on board with how the league wants to handle the event.

According to Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich of The Athletic, the union turned down the league’s latest 10-round draft proposal. The MLBPA understandably wants as many rounds of the draft as possible to occur because it would benefit the players entering the pro ranks, so 10 instead of five would be a plus for the union. But as you’d expect, the two sides are at odds over money. The league’s plan is to keep slot values where they were last year in the first five rounds, but in six through 10, the values would be cut to 50 percent and there would be “a hard cap on the signing bonus at slot value,” Rosenthal and Drellich write. Moreover, the league would limit teams to signing five undrafted players for $20K apiece – the maximum they’ll be able to receive this year – but an unlimited amount at $5K or less.

While the union isn’t a fan of this proposal, the league could still go forward with what they agreed to a month ago. In the meantime, assuming the draft does still happen in June (it’s expected to, per Rosenthal and Drellich), both sides could continue to negotiate on changes. It would behoove the two to find as much common ground as possible and limit tension with serious talks on a new collective bargaining agreement not far away.

Teams Could Resume Spring Training At Their Home Ballparks

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It goes without saying that the 2020 Major League Baseball – if it happens – will be an unusual one. We’ve heard of plenty of out-of-the-box ways for teams to get back on the field if the coronavirus pandemic gets under control, one of the latest being cutting six divisions down to three. But before a potential regular season begins, the players will have to ramp back up with the resumption of spring training.

Players will need about three weeks to ramp back up in camp if spring training restarts. However, it might not take place at its typical sites in Florida and Arizona. Rather, each of the league’s 30 teams could play at their own stadiums, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports. Four team executives informed Nightengale that the plan is under consideration.

One of the main benefits of this idea is that it would save teams money they’d be spending on hotels and per diem at their normal spring facilities. However, as Nightengale notes, a key downside is clubs would only have access to one field as opposed to the six available to them at their training grounds.

Whether this will come to fruition is anyone’s guess. While there has been recent optimism about a season getting underway, it’s going to be an enormous challenge for MLB to pull off, no matter how many different ideas it may have.

Latest On Potential Mets Sale

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Mets owners Fred Wilpon and Jeff Wilpon are considering selling the franchise, though they may not make out as well as they hope if a deal does come together. Rumored bidder Wayne Rothbaum does indeed have interest in taking the Mets off the Wilpons’ hands, but only at a reduced price, according to Thornton McEnery of the New York Post.

“I think he likes the idea of $1 billion,” a source told McEnery. “It’s a round number and the Wilpons are not holding any cards without SNY.”

That wouldn’t be an ideal outcome for the Wilpons, whose financial situation has taken a hit as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Even if half of a baseball season takes place this year, the Wilpons could lose up to $150MM, per McEnery.

Before the league shut down because of the coronavirus, the Wilpons nearly agreed to sell an 80 percent stake in the Mets to Steve Cohen for $2.6 billion, but those plans fell through. That transaction wouldn’t have included the SNY network, either. The Mets have recently been valued at $1.6 billion without SNY in the mix, writes McEnery, who hears that the idea of Cohen purchasing the team still isn’t off the table. A source told him “he’s the only one that makes sense” as a possible buyer.

Rothbaum, meanwhile, was part of the $1.2 billion bidding for the Marlins in 2017, but the team ended up going to a group headed by Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter. If Rothbaum does eventually land the Mets, it’s possible one of Jeter’s former teammates could be a member of his ownership group. There has been talk of Alex Rodriguez and fiancee Jennifer Lopez owning some portion of a Rothbaum-led Mets franchise.

J.D. Martinez, Alex Bregman … Jordan Luplow?

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Raise your hand if you know which three major league hitters had the most success against left-handed pitching last season. The first two names – Boston’s J.D. Martinez (242 wRC+) and Houston’s Alex Bregman (205) – don’t come as any kind of surprise. Everybody knows they’re elite offensive players. The same is not true of the third-place finisher, Indians outfielder Jordan Luplow, who put up a jaw-dropping 198 wRC+ and slashed .320/.439/.742 in 155 plate appearances versus southpaws. Nobody could have seen that coming when the Indians made a fairly under-the-radar trade for him before last year.

Heading into the 2018-19 offseason, Luplow was a Pirate who, in limited big league opportunities, didn’t produce much. At that point, the former third-round pick was the owner of a dismal .194/.274/.371 line (72 wRC+) in 190 trips to the plate. Unimpressed, Pittsburgh sent him to Cleveland in a deal that has gone the Indians’ way so far.

In exchange for Luplow and infielder Max Moroff, the Indians gave up infielder Erik Gonzalez and a couple minor league right-handers in Dante Mendoza and Tahnaj Thomas. Like Luplow, Gonzalez had been a replacement-level player and a non-threat at the plate in the majors when the trade occurred. Still, then-Pirates general manager Neal Huntington was happy to bring him aboard.

“Erik Gonzalez is an athletic middle infielder who plays solid defense and has the potential to be a productive hitter at the major league level,” said Huntington. “He gives us another quality option to play shortstop or in the middle of our infield this year and into the future.”

Gonzalez fell flat in Year 1 as a Pirate, though, as he batted an ugly .254/.301/.317 (59 wRC+) in 156 PA during an injury-shortened campaign. He’s 28 and controllable through 2022, so it’s too soon to throw dirt on Gonzalez’s career, but it’s not looking good so far. Meanwhile, the 21-year-old Mendoza has struggled in the minors, where he logged a 5.82 ERA/6.06 FIP across 43 1/3 innings in rookie ball last season. If there’s a silver lining to this trade for the Pirates so far, it’s that they got a solid prospect in Thomas, 20. Formerly an infielder, Thomas ranks as FanGraphs’ No. 5 Pirates farmhand. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen wrote of Thomas two months ago, “He may be the most anonymous 100 mph arm in baseball.”

Perhaps Thomas will one day go down as a player who got away for Cleveland. For now, the team’s benefiting from the deal at the MLB level, though it’s already out one-half of its return in Moroff. He was a non-factor in the bigs last year and is now a member of the Mets organization. And, of course, Luplow doesn’t come without question marks at the plate. The righty amassed 106 PA versus same-handed pitchers in 2019, hit just one of his 15 home runs off them and could only muster a .216/.274/.299 line with a wRC+ of 48. Those are in line with the numbers he posted against right-handers in previous seasons.

Despite his shortcomings, the inexpensive Luplow has already given the Indians a substantial amount of bang for their buck. As a 2.2-fWAR performed last year, FanGraphs valued his output at $17.6MM. At the very least, the Indians appear to have found a nice platoon hitter in Luplow — one who has experience at all three outfield positions. The fact that he’s still just 26 and controllable for five more years (including two pre-arbitration seasons) only adds to his appeal from the low-budget Indians’ perspective.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLB Seeking Pay Reduction For Umpires

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In addition to seeking pro-rated salaries for players — and larger reductions if/when games are played without fans in attendance — the league is asking umpires to take a reduction in pay as well, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports. Nightengale indicates that the league is seeking a roughly 35 percent reduction in pay and has informed the umpires that if no agreement can be reached between the two sides, they will not be paid until play resumes. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that the umpires’ offer included a 20 percent reduction in pay (subscription link). The league is seeking an agreement as soon as this weekend, though that may not be likely.

Per Rosenthal, the umpires union is torn on whether to accept the league’s proposal and has responded with a “hold letter” that would keep negotiations going while the umpires agree not to file a grievance as their May pay is withheld. His piece is rife with specifics on the league’s proposal, although at its base, the league is asking that umpires’ entire salaries be prorated despite the fact that umpires are paid over a 12-month term (unlike players, who are paid only in-season). In essence, the league is seeking to retroactively prorate salary that was paid out to umpires prior to the COVID-19 pandemic by more heavily reducing pay in the remaining months of the year. Umpire per diems and postseason bonuses would be reduced as well. The league would compensate umpires for working a second Spring Training.

Nightengale notes that salaries range from $110K for rookie umpires to $432,800 for the most seasoned of the 76-person group. Postseason bonuses, per diems, an annual $12,000 licensing payment (which has already been paid out), health and retirement benefits further boost earnings. That said, umpires themselves face a lengthy grind to the big leagues while calling games in the minors and (per Rosenthal) top out at earning a $20K salary per year in Triple-A.

The potential unrest between the league and its umpires only serves as the latest reminder that the amount of intricacies that need to be accounted for in a shortened season teeters on innumerable. As with the players, there will be logistical challenges for umpiring crews once this dispute is settled, but the immediate focus is agreeing on finances and the extent of concessions both sides will make.

Ryan Zimmerman On Playing Beyond 2020

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After capturing a World Series title at age 35, in the same season his six-year, $100MM contract came to a close, Ryan Zimmerman could’ve opted to hang up his cleats in storybook fashion had he so wished. But the two-time All-Star clearly felt he had more left to experience in the game and ultimately took a sizable pay cut to return to the Nationals on a one-year, $2MM deal this winter. With the season on hold indefinitely, Zimmerman acknowledges within a self-penned guest piece for the Associated Press that it’s been hard not to think about life after baseball, but he indicated that as things stand, he hopes to continue playing not only in 2020 but perhaps beyond.

“If it turns out there isn’t a 2020 season, and I had to decide right now about 2021, I would say: Yes, I definitely would plan on playing next year,” Zimmerman writes. The 15-year Nationals veteran adds that he had no interest in signing anywhere but back with the Nationals this winter and only plans to sign one-year deals from this point forth, so as to assess how his body holds up on a year-to-year basis. Of course, based on his age and level of play in 2019, that was all that was reasonable to expect anyhow.

Zimmerman spent much of this past season on the injured list due to plantar fasciitis, and when he was healthy enough to take the field, he wasn’t particularly productive. The 2019 season marked just the second time in his excellent career that he rated below league average at the plate, by measure of wRC+ (89) and OPS+ (86). Through 190 plate appearances, Zimmerman slashed a .257/.321/.415 with six long balls and nine doubles.

Zimmerman’s balky foot quite likely impacted his performance in virtually all aspects of the game, and it should be pointed out that from 2017-18, he turned in a quite-productive .289/.350/.542 batting line. However, staying on the field has also become increasingly difficult for Zimmerman as he’s played into his mid-30s. Dating back to the 2014 campaign, he’s averaged just 92 games and 364 plate appearances per year while missing time due to to oblique, wrist, hamstring and rib cage issues in addition to three separate IL stints for plantar fasciitis.

Presently, it appears the downtime has done Zimmerman some good. He writes that he feels “unbelievable” having been able to work out without grinding through the rigors of a 162-game schedule, although he makes clear that he’s eager to return to the field and experience the feeling of defending a World Series title for the first time. It seems nearly impossible to envision Zimmerman playing anywhere else, and given that the team values him beyond his on-field contributions, it’s not tough to see him suiting up for a few more years if he feels up to the challenge.

Justin Verlander Provides Rehab Update

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Reigning AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander was hampered by a pair of spring health troubles — a lat strain and a groin injury that required surgery — but the Houston ace told reporters Thursday that he’s progressed to playing long toss (Twitter links via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). The lat strain, per Verlander, is mostly healed up, and he’s made “a big stride” in his rehab from the groin surgery as well.

Both updates are encouraging for the Astros, although there’s still no formal word from the team on a timetable for the right-hander’s return to the mound. At the time of Verlander’s surgery in mid-March, Astros general manager James Click put a rough six-week timetable on his rehab process. We’re a couple days past that point now, although with the 2020 season in limbo, it’s only sensible to be a bit cautious in the rehab process.

Verlander added that the surgery is “already showing some benefit in my mechanics” as he works to make his delivery as efficient as possible (link via the Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome). Notably, Verlander revealed that the surgery stemmed from an MRI that revealed his adductor muscle had nearly torn off the bone completely.

Verlander, 37, is signed through the 2021 season at $33MM per year under the terms of the extension he signed with Houston late in Spring Training last year. He responded to that contract with arguably the best season of his Hall of Fame career. Verlander led the league with 223 innings and pitched to a 2.58 ERA with a masterful 300-to-42 K/BB ratio (12.1 K/9, 1.7 BB/9) and narrowly edged now-former teammate Gerrit Cole for Cy Young honors in the AL. He made at least 30 starts for the 13th time in 14 years, and his 179 ERA+ represented a career best.

The Phillies’ Upside Scenario

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For a big-budget team that has in recent years added high-profile players like Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, and Jake Arrieta, the Phillies sure haven’t received a lot of attention of late. Perhaps it’s the fact that the rest of the NL East has been engaged in more interesting pursuits.

Let’s not overlook the challenges facing the Philadelphia organization in 2020 and beyond. The Nationals just won a World Series and still have elite talent. The Braves have taken the past two division titles and remain loaded. The Mets took a hit with the loss of Noah Syndergaard, but still have an imposing rotation and and an underappreciated amount of upside on the position-player side as well. And the Marlins? Well, we tend to overlook them, but maybe it’s time we recognize that the club’s young pitching is fairly interesting. They even spent some cash to bring in some veterans this offseason. Perhaps a renaissance isn’t far off.

Could the Phillies’ long-awaited return to the top of the heap stall out? There’s a real risk of it. Projection systems mostly seem to view the current roster as a generally average one, hardly a surefire contender. And the farm system isn’t exactly bursting with top-shelf youngsters just awaiting their chance in the majors. It’s necessary to acknowledge that the picture may never quite come all the way together as president Andy MacPhail and GM Matt Klentak envisioned. But let’s also consider the realistic upside in the group of players they’ve assembled.

Outfield

Bryce Harper: It has been a few years, but he’s only 27 and is one of only a few players who has proven capable of producing a ~10 WAR season.

Andrew McCutchen: Cutch was nearly that good at his peak, too, though it’s much further in the past. But we shouldn’t go too far in the other direction. McCutchen has been a high-quality everyday player even since moving out of superstar status. Added rest for his knee probably helps.

Adam Haseley/Roman Quinn/Jay Bruce: I’m not going to tell you I’m in love with this group, but you can squint and see how it can work out. Statcast hated Haseley’s quality of contact and Quinn hasn’t made good with his chances. But they’re both young players who could yet make strides. Bruce wasn’t great in Philly last year but has mostly been an above-average offensive producer even in his decline years.

Infield

J.T. Realmuto: The Phillies feel he’s the best catcher in baseball and it’s possible there’s even more in the tank. He has done more offensively than he did in 2019. There’ll be no shortage of motivation with free agency beckoning.

Rhys Hoskins: He collapsed late last year but still led the league in walks. If he can figure out what went wrong … he was a .263/.401/.530 monster through his first 392 plate appearances in 2019.

Didi Gregorius: We’re looking at a guy who was a quality defensive shortstop who produced about 25% more offensive than the average player in 2018. He wasn’t back to that level after fighting back from Tommy John surgery, but as with Hoskins, the established ceiling isn’t that far in the rearview mirror.

Jean Segura: A steady producer for three seasons before the Phillies acquired him, Segura stumbled a bit last year. But when you look under the hood, he mostly seems to be the same player, so it wouldn’t be surprising at all if he was to bounce back at thirty years of age.

Alec Bohm: The team’s top prospect bolted up the ladder last year and ended up posting big numbers at Double-A (.269/.344/.500; 38:28 K/BB ratio). He’s a candidate to break out upon his MLB arrival.

Utility

Scott Kingery: It’s important to remember that the Phillies can lean on Kingery in the infield or the outfield. That leaves flexibility to accommodate the rise of Bohm, needs in center field, or opportunities to add new players. Kingery had some ups and downs in his second season in the bigs, but ultimately made huge strides and turned in a league-average offensive season.

Josh Harrison/Neil Walker/Logan Forsythe/T.J. Rivera: The Phillies promised opportunities to compete in camp to a series of veterans who’ve had quite a bit of MLB success. That’s not necessarily likely to result in a lucky score of a high-quality regular, but it’s possible. And the team can reasonably hope it has added some useful pieces for cheap.

Rotation

Aaron Nola: He took a bit of a step back last year but was still quite good. And Nola put up a Cy Young-caliber effort in the season prior.

Zack Wheeler: This signing was all about the upside positively dripping from Wheeler’s high-powered right arm. There are risks, too, but there’s also a real possibility the Phils hit a home run here.

Jake Arrieta: As with McCutchen, it’d be foolish to pine for a return to the glory days. But Arrieta had turned in quality output even with diminished stuff before running into bigger problems in 2019. He was a sub-4.00 hurler in the two prior campaigns.

Vince Velasquez/Nick Pivetta/Zach Eflin: It’s something of an annual tradition to marvel at the big arms of Velasquez and Pivetta while wondering if they can succeed as MLB starters. It hasn’t really happened yet, but there have been flashes and crazier things have happened. Eflin’s peripherals slipped last year and he doesn’t exactly profile as an ace, but he has turned in 291 1/3 innings of 4.23 ERA ball in the past two seasons.

Cole Irvin/Enyel De Los Santos/Adonis Medina/Spencer Howard: Irvin and De Los Santos have reached (but hardly mastered) the majors. It’s possible to imagine solid production coming from either or both. There are some highly regarded arms not far behind. It seems both of these hurlers have some development left, but when talent figures things out it can move quickly …

Bullpen

Hector Neris: He got the long balls under control in 2019 and returned to being one of the game’s more effective closers.

Tommy Hunter/David Robertson: It’s hard to count on too much, but these accomplished veterans could certainly have a rebound. The layoff will give extra time for both to rest and rehab.

Bud Norris/Anthony Swarzak/Blake Parker/Drew Storen: There are also a fair number of other veteran types looking to revive their careers in Philadelphia. Tough to say what to expect, but there are decent odds that there’s some productivity here. Norris is a particularly interesting candidate; he was quite useful in 2018 but sat out the ensuing season when interest didn’t develop as expected.

Victor Arano: He was quite good in 2018 and now has added time to recover from elbow surgery.

Deolis Guerra: The MLB track record is quite thin, but he thrived in a tough Triple-A environment last year.

Adam Morgan/Jose Alvarez/Ranger Suarez/Francisco Liriano: It’s not a star-studded group of lefties, but there is at least sufficient depth.

The Phils also have a fairly large group of younger pitchers already on the 40-man, many with MLB experience. While few jump off the page for their obvious upside, the Phillies can still hope that someone emerges from the group. Edgar Garcia may be the most interesting, with big swinging-strike rates and good results in the upper minors. There are three lefties with strong upper-minors strikeout numbers but other questions: Austin Davis, Garrett Cleavinger, and Kyle Dohy.

Remember, the bullpen is likely to end up with some spillover from the rotation, with Pivetta a particularly likely candidate to spend time in the ’pen. Hope remains that his stuff could play up in a relief role.

Overall

It’s silly to contemplate a scenario where literally everything breaks right for a team. That’s more or less impossible. But the realistic upside possibilities are fairly interesting. There’s potential for one mega-star (Harper), at least one top-of-class player (Realmuto), and several others with All-Star capabilities in the position-player mix. The pitching picture is similar, with a set of mid-prime hurlers who could emerge as twin aces and a reasonably interesting blend behind them.

Many have pegged the Phils as the fourth-best team in the NL East, and that’s quite possible accurate when you blend in all the downside. But this club still has the potential to break out — particularly if a strong early showing facilitates additional mid-season investments (presuming there’s such an opportunity).

Who’s The Top 2020-21 Free Agent Starter?

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There’s a lot of time left to assess the 2020-21 free agent class. It would help to have, y’know, some actual baseball to help inform. But in the absence of that, we can still make some assessments based upon what we already know.

Scanning the upcoming group of open-market starters, there’s no clear top arm. It’s certainly possible that one or more hurlers will significantly boost his stock with a big (partial) 2020 season, as we’ve seen in recent years from guys like Zack Wheeler and Patrick Corbin. But it’s pretty clear we’re not going to see another $200MM+ pitcher in the upcoming offseason.

There’s necessarily some serious guesswork here, but let’s see what the MLBTR readership anticipates. Here are the candidates we’ll consider … which is likeliest to be the top free agent starter? (In alphabetical order below, randomized in the poll.)

  • Trevor Bauer: Well, we just gave you our best early guesses on camera. There’s no denying the upside here, as exhibited in his monster 2018 season. Bauer has all the necessary tools and is a curious craftsman when it comes to driving improvement. With a strong showing, he could be chased by quite a few contenders that find appeal in the idea of a rental ace.
  • Mike Minor: The results have been quite good and Minor’s health issues have faded. Perhaps his two lost seasons (2015-16) can even be spun as a bit of an advantage, in that he wasn’t logging mileage on his arm in that span.
  • Jake Odorizzi: Here’s a hurler that is easy to overlook. Odorizzi is coming off of a 3.51 ERA campaign and can’t be issued another qualifying offer.
  • James Paxton: With a long layoff, Paxton has had an opportunity to rest his surgically repaired back. That could help him more than any other player on this list.
  • Jose Quintana: Steady production. Excellent durability. He was probably somewhat unfortunate to post below-average results in 2019.
  • Robbie Ray: Probably the favorite for top dog status … and yet … the strikeout numbers are gaudy, but so are the walk rates. And Ray hasn’t consistently turned swings and misses into output. He owns a 4.11 ERA and landed higher than that mark in 2019.
  • Garrett Richards: When he’s healthy, he’s usually pretty awesome. Richards is recovered from Tommy John surgery and well-rested.
  • Marcus Stroman: It’s possible we’re not hyping Stroman enough. He just turned in 32 starts of 3.22 ERA ball.
  • Masahiro Tanaka: Through his six years in the majors, Tanaka has run up over a thousand frames of 3.75 ERA pitching.
  • Other: There’s a case that you’d be best off betting on the field. There are some talented arms out there who could launch back into big-contract status with a strong showing in 2020. Among them: Alex Wood, Kevin Gausman, Taijuan Walker, Michael Wacha, Jimmy Nelson, Anthony DeSclafani, Cole Hamels, Rick Porcello, Drew Smyly, etc.

Who’s the favorite to be the market leader? (Poll link for app users.)

Rizzo & Freeman Headline 2021-22 Free Agent First Basemen

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It’s an MLBTR tradition to maintain a list of not only the immediately pending group of free agents, but also those next in line. As part of the festivities, a certain number of folks fail to read the headline and prefatory language closely, thus prompting vehement protestations about players wrongly included or excluded.

To forestall that outcome to the extent possible, we just ran through the full 2020-21 free agent class on a position-by-position basis. (Catchers, first basemen, second basemen, shortstops, third basemen, corner outfielders, center fielders, designated hitters, starting pitchers, lefty relievers and righty relievers.) Please explore those lists for the players who’ll be on the open market after the 2020 season.

What follows is a list of certain players — specifically, catchers — who are presently slated to qualify for free agency after the 2021 season. We’ve already run through the amazing group of shortstops in that class and taken a look at the veteran backstops coming to the market. It’s important also to understand that this list is far from exhaustive, in that many first basemen set for free agency in 2020-21 will ultimately ink one-year deals that put them back on track to return to the open market post-2021.

This is how the 2021-22 first base market shapes up at this point (season-age for 2022):

Top of the Class

  • Freddie Freeman (32): He’s such a franchise icon that the club’s former GM preferred Freeman to his own right arm … and that we forgot to include him in the initial version of this list. Gulp. It is indeed hard to imagine Freeman in another uniform after so many great seasons in Atlanta. Then again, an elbow injury did crop up in 2019. And the team’s current executive leadership may not have quite the same attachment to a much older version of the slugger. We’ll see whether and when serious talks on a second extension. If Freeman does reach the market, there’s a good chance he’ll be one of the most hotly pursued players. But teams are only going to pay so much for a first baseman of this vintage in the current environment.
  • Anthony Rizzo (32): He isn’t sure to be part of this class, as the Cubs could in theory decline their option next winter and let Rizzo sign a multi-year deal elsewhere. That’s … unlikely. Through nine years and over five thousand plate appearances in the majors, Rizzo is a .273/.373/.488 hitter who has launched 218 home runs. He has been a steadily excellent producer since his breakout 2014 season. We’ll see what the intervening seasons bring, but the odds are good that Rizzo will be one of the best bats available in the 2021-22 offseason. You might think the Cubs would be interested in pursuing an extension, particularly given Rizzo’s central role in the club’s identity, but the team declined the advances of the star first bagger this offseason. Future talks remain possible, but this was perhaps the most promising window.

Other Regulars

  • Brandon Belt (34): Long a high-quality but under-appreciated hitter, Belt has also dealt with significant concussion issues over the years. He was healthy in 2019, but also drooped in the power department — already a source of consternation for many Giants fans — over the past two campaigns. There are some rays of hope. Belt’s plate discipline was as good as ever last year (13.5% walk rate, 20.6% strikeout rate). And by measure of Statcast, he has produced better contact than the results would suggest (.327 wOBA vs. .355 xwOBA in 2018; .319 vs. .346 in 2019).
  • Matt Carpenter (36): While he’s not playing first base at the moment, Carpenter has plenty of experience there and will likely be viewed as a first bagger when he reaches free agency. It feels rather likely that the Cardinals will end up paying a $2MM buyout rather than exercising a $18.5MM vesting option. Then again, couldn’t Carpenter’s sudden fall-off in 2019 represent a blip? He was a top-notch offensive producer for years before. I can’t think offhand of a player whose Statcast readings dove so dramatically. Carpenter dropped from a 44.7% hard contact rate in 2018 to a miserly 31.1% rate in 2019, while he sunk from a .392 xwOBA (his fourth-straight season ranking in the top ten percent leaguewide by that metric) to a middling .332 mark. Carpenter ended the year with a .225/.334/.392 batting line and personal-high 26.2% strikeout rate. He could be a big factor in this market, but he’ll have to figure out what went wrong.

Other Option Possibilities

Like Rizzo, several other notable players can each be controlled for the 2021 season through club options. Should that come to pass, those players would play out their contracts before returning to the open market. If they don’t perform well enough, there’s still a good chance they’ll end up in the 2021-22 free agent class.

  • Carlos Santana (36; $17.5MM option, $500K buyout) and Edwin Encarnacion (39; $12MM option, no buyout) lead the way here. It’s not certain they’ll be in this class: their options are expensive enough that they could conceivably be sent onto the open market after a good-but-not-great season and still end up signing a multi-year deal. And Encarnacion, at least, is getting up there in years. Another player with a lot of money at stake is Daniel Murphy (37), who’ll either receive a $6MM buyout or play for a $12MM salary in 2021.
  • Todd Frazier (36; $5.75MM option, $1.5MM buyout), Justin Smoak (35; $5.5MM option, $1MM buyout), Eric Thames (35; $4MM mutual option, $1MM buyout), and Mitch Moreland (36; $3MM option, $500K buyout) are all also possibilities to become parts of this class.

Names to Watch

  • Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (30): The Japanese star inked a two-year deal with the Rays this past offseason. It’s anyone’s guess how it’ll look when Tsutsugo is ready to return to the open market. While he has historically spent most of his time in the outfield, he’s being given time in the infield in Tampa Bay and has experience at first base in Nippon Professional Baseball.
  • Mark Canha (33): He’s currently finding success ranging on the outfield grass, but Canha came up primarily as a first baseman. And if he can sustain his monster 2019 output — .273/.396/.517 — then the bat will play anywhere on the diamond.
  • Ian Desmond (36): It’s all but inconceivable that the Rockies will exercise their $15MM club option ($2MM buyout) over the struggling veteran, so he’s sure to be a part of this class. Even with a bounceback platform season, though, teams aren’t likely to relish the idea of plugging Desmond into their first base mix. Though he was rather oddly plugged in at first when the Rockies signed him, the former shortstop and center fielder’s real potential value lies in his defensive versatility.

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