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Rays Have Opened Extension Talks With Glasnow, Meadows

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The Rays have approached Tyler Glasnow’s representatives at Wasserman and Austin Meadows’ representatives at Excel Sports about potential long-term deals for the pair of burgeoning stars, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.

There’s no indication that talks with either party have progressed beyond the preliminary stage, but the reaction from the pair is notable. Both say they’re open to such an arrangement, with Meadows saying he “definitely would be open to something like that” but Glasnow taking a bit more reserved approach. While the right-hander acknowledged that he’d listen to offers, he also made clear that he doesn’t want to “sell [himself] short” and that he has “no problem going year-to-year.”

Looking at the two as separate cases, Glasnow’s situation is a bit trickier. The right-hander was utterly dominant when healthy in 2019, pitching to a 1.78 ERA with averages of 11.3 strikeouts, 2.1 walks and 0.59 home runs allowed per nine innings pitched. Unfortunately for both him and the Rays, a forearm strain limited the towering righty to 60 2/3 innings.

Glasnow was one of the game’s premier pitching prospects for years and, since being traded to the Rays, has broken out with 116 2/3 innings of 2.94 ERA ball and nearly 11 punchouts per nine frames. He doesn’t have a long track record in the Majors, though, and his platform season was noticeably light on workload. Throw in that he’s a Super Two player who’s already set to earn $2.05MM in 2020, and it becomes a bit muddier when trying to determine what the two sides might deem a fair price point.

For context, Glasnow’s own teammate, Blake Snell, holds the record for largest contract ever signed by a pitcher with between two and three years of big league service time. Snell signed a five-year, $50MM contract just last spring, but he wasn’t a Super Two player at the time of that agreement. He was, however, fresh off a Cy Young win, which makes his case perhaps something of an outlier. The second-largest deal ever inked by a two-plus pitcher was German Marquez, who landed a five-year, $43MM deal (also last winter). Marquez wasn’t a Super Two player but tossed thrice as many innings as Glasnow in his platform season. Luis Severino was a Super Two with two-plus years of service time when he signed a four-year, $40MM deal with a club option for a fifth season in February 2019, but he was projected to earn more than double the $2.05MM to which Glasnow agreed for the upcoming season (by virtue of his 2017-18 workload).

The unique nature of Glasnow’s situation and his stated willingness to go year-to-year might make an agreement tough to hammer out. A healthy and productive season out of the righty, after all, would lead to a substantial raise. Mike Foltynewicz played out the 2018 season as a Super Two player on a $2.2MM salary and, after 183 innings of 2.85 ERA ball, saw a 149 percent raise to $5.475MM for the 2019 campaign. Even with some regression in terms of his ERA, Glasnow could be looking at similar financial upside if he can rack up the innings. There’s also virtually no circumstance in which he’d be in for a pay cut in 2021, so he’s looking at a minimum of $4.1MM over the next two seasons as it is. At the very least, he has a bit of security on his side now that he’s into arbitration.

Meadows is in a different situation. The 24-year-old has a year and 74 days of service, which places him two full seasons away from reaching arbitration. Meadows slashed .291/.364/.558 with 33 home runs, 29 doubles, seven triples and 12 steals in 591 plate appearances during a breakout 2019 campaign with the Rays. In doing so, he cemented himself as a fixture in the lineup for the foreseeable future. The Rays’ interest in keeping him cost-controlled is plenty sensible, as Tampa Bay has routinely had to move on from its players as their salaries escalate in arbitration (Tommy Pham and Corey Dickerson are recent examples in the outfield). That looks particularly likely to be the case with Meadows iff he goes year-to-year, as his power numbers would play quite well when he does reach arbitration in the 2021-22 offseason.

Looking for some historical comps, Christian Yelich’s first extension — seven years and $49.57MM — is the largest ever signed by a player with between and two years of service. Ronald Acuna Jr. secured a $100MM payday with less than a year of service time, although that deal was an outlier and required him surrendering four would-be free-agent seasons in the process. Something closer to the first Yelich extension is a likelier base point, but that deal is five years old, so Meadows’ camp could aim to set a new precedent.

In the event that one or both do put pen to paper, the Rays’ 2020 payroll figures to be largely unaffected. Tampa Bay is set to again field one of the lowest-cost (but most-talented) rosters in baseball, with a projected Opening Day mark of just under $71MM. The Rays have about $34MM in guaranteed money on the books both in 2021 and in 2022, though, and that number dips to $24MM by the 2023 season. Fitting contract extensions for Meadows and/or Glasnow into the long-term budget shouldn’t be much of a reach — if the involved parties can years and dollars.

Justin Verlander Shut Down Due To Lat Strain

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12:42pm: Verlander himself sounds as though he’s expecting to open the season on the injured list (Twitter link via Rome): “I would say it would probably take a miracle for me to be back by Opening Day.”

12:07pm: The Astros have shut right-hander Justin Verlander down for the time being due to a “mild lat strain,” general manager James Click tells reporters (Twitter link via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). There’s no timetable for when Verlander will resume throwing yet, and the organization is uncertain as to whether Verlander will be ready for Opening Day.

There were far worse potential outcomes as Houston fans braced for the worst when Verlander exited yesterday’s start and went in for an MRI. Indeed, Click indicated that, “By and large, the news we got today was on the positive side.” While any injury to a starter of Verlander’s caliber is problematic, the lack of any tearing or structural damage in his arm surely came as a sigh of relief. That said, it’s still a discouraging development for a team with mounting questions on the pitching staff. If Verlander proves unable to take the ball come Opening Day, one would imagine that fellow veteran Zack Greinke would get the nod in the season opener. But beyond Greinke, the Astros are looking at Tommy John returnee Lance McCullers Jr. and the relatively inexperienced Jose Urquidy in the third and fourth slots in the rotation.

Presently, Austin Pruitt and Josh James are the presumptive front-runners for the fifth spot in the rotation, but both could be start games early in the season in the event of an IL stint for Verlander. Alternatively, the ’Stros could look to use an opener early in the year. Click, it should be noted, was hired out away from the Rays earlier this winter — the organization that pioneered the opener tactic at the Major League level.

One in-house alternative, right-hander Rogelio Armenteros, has already been shut down due to elbow discomfort. Brad Peacock has yet to throw in a game this spring, as he’s been slowed by neck pain. He’s been slated for bullpen duties anyhow. Other options could include right-hander Cy Sneed or lefties Framber Valdez and Cionel Perez. However you want to judge the race for the final few spots, an Astros rotation that until very recently was a legitimate powerhouse now has more questions than answers. And at this point, it’s not as if Houston can simply go out into the free-agent market and plug a starter into their staff. Jason Vargas, Clay Buchholz and Andrew Cashner are among the unsigned names of note, but Opening Day is a mere 15 days away; none from that bunch would be ready in time.

Perhaps Click and his staff will explore other avenues, but no one should expect a proven big league starter to be on the move at this point of Spring Training. And with the Astros about $23MM over the luxury tax threshold as it is, they don’t seem likely to take on any sort of meaningful salary. Waiver claims and deals for veterans who opt out of minor league pacts elsewhere could help to replenish the depth, though, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the club make any moves along those lines.

NL Central Notes: Pirates, Lorenzen, Chatwood

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The Pirates were “behind the times” in their approach to developing pitchers under the previous front-office/coaching regime, right-hander Tyler Glasnow opines in a fascinating interview with Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Glasnow details the manner in which the Pirates emphasized pitching down and inside even as the rest of the league evolved to attacking the top of the strike zone with four-seamers and ramping up the usage of breaking balls. The right-hander calls the Pirates’ approach “a good strategy for [2013-15]” but an outdated one in the current era of data-driven approaches to pitching and game-planning. Glasnow explains how he began working at the top of the strike zone on his own toward the end of his time as a Pirate — he was never approached by the club about doing so — and that was the first thing the Rays encouraged him to do following the trade. The interview is rife with interesting (and, if you’re a Pirates fan, frustrating) quotes from Glasnow and is well worth a full look regardless of which team you follow.

Taking a look elsewhere in the division…

  • The “two-way player” criteria established by Major League Baseball within this winter’s slate of rule changes puts National League clubs at a disadvantage, writes Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required). The rules, which stipulate that a pitcher who wishes to gain two-way designation must start 20 games as a position player (with three plate appearances per start), appear to have been written with Shohei Ohtani in mind (and perhaps Brendan McKay) but don’t allow for someone like the Reds’ Michael Lorenzen to easily attain that status. Lorenzen played 29 games in center last season, including six starts. In two of those instances, he played every inning of an extra-inning game in the outfield, and in another he came in to throw two innings of relief before returning to center. Lorenzen called the criteria “obnoxious” in chatting with Rosenthal, who notes that the Reds are among the teams that have approached the league about the issue. Over the past two seasons, Lorenzen has batted .241/.302/.468 with five home runs in 87 plate appearances. He logged 89 innings in center field last season after serving as a frequent pinch-hitter a year prior in 2018.
  • Cubs skipper David Ross has at least considered utilizing righty Tyler Chatwood as a multi-inning reliever, he tells Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. Ross still calls Chatwood the favorite for the fifth slot in the rotation, but he also points to Chatwood hitting 99 mph out of the bullpen and the fact that he pitched in every inning while functioning in various roles last season. Ross likens Chatwood to Kenta Maeda, suggesting that he could function as a starter for much of the season before shifting to a multi-inning relief option late in the year and potentially into the postseason. If Chatwood once again struggles as a starter early in the season, it seems likely the organization will shift him back into that role and look to alternative options in the rotation.

Justin Verlander Undergoes MRI Following Triceps Injury

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March 9: Verlander underwent an MRI to evaluate the issue, tweets Chris McCosky of the Detroit News, but the Astros have yet to receive the results.

March 8, 2:50pm: Dusty Baker shed some light on Verlander’s exit, saying he experienced right triceps soreness, per McTaggart. His removal was precautionary.

2:06pm: Justin Verlander exited his spring start two innings early today, per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart. He threw two scoreless innings, but left to undergo medical testing.

It’s unclear at this time what particular issue Verlander is dealing with, though he’s been plagued with a strained right groin throughout spring training. Neither Verlander nor the Astros gave any indication as to the severity of Verlander’s discomfort. Presumably, an update will be provided shortly.

Among the many issues that could derail the Astros 2020 season, any hiccups at the top of the rotation might be the most worrying. With a host of less-established candidates filling the void at the back end of the rotation, Verlander and co-ace Zack Greinke are the only guaranteed quality starters currently employed in Houston. Lance McCullers Jr. slots in as the number three, but the native Floridian is coming off a lost 2019, and he’s never made more than 22 starts in a season.

Verlander’s injury may turn out to be nothing, but this is the risk in pinning rotation stability on a 37-year-old Verlander and 36-year-old Greinke. Granted, Verlander and Greinke show no signs of slowing down after combining for 13.3 pitching bWAR in 2019, and given the amount of adversity sure to confront the 2020 Astros, a healthy Verlander and Greinke still provide the surest chance to rise above.

Offseason In Review: Miami Marlins

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While the Marlins are far from pushing for contention, they did spend some money to add proven veteran talent to their roster.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

In something of a role reversal, the Marlins took an undesirable contract off a rebuilding team’s hands when they landed Jonathan Villar in what was essentially a salary dump for the Orioles.  Villar ended up avoiding arbitration by agreeing with Miami on an $8.2MM salary for the 2020 season — lower than both the $10.4MM MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s projection model forecast for Villar, and also the roughly $9MM or so that Swartz personally predicted in his closer examination of Villar’s rather unique case.

Even at $8.2MM, Villar was deemed too expensive by a Baltimore team that is stripping its roster down in the early stages of a lengthy rebuild, leaving the Marlins in position to add a quality second baseman coming off a 4.0 fWAR season.  Or, I should say, a potentially former second baseman who will be seeing some time in center field, as the Marlins will try Villar on the outfield grass to free up a position for prospect Isan Diaz.  It could end up being a short-lived audition depending on Villar’s glovework or if Diaz (who had only a .566 OPS over 201 MLB plate appearances in 2019) continues to struggle against Major League pitching.  However, considering that former top prospect Lewis Brinson has also yet to break out at the big league level, there’s no harm for Miami in seeing if Villar can help their center field situation.  If so, it could only enhance his trade value at the deadline, as Villar is only under contract through the end of the season.

The Fish added another veteran regular in Corey Dickerson, who was signed to a $17.5MM deal that covers the 2020-21 seasons.  The outfield was a prime area of need for Miami this winter, as such names as Yasiel Puig, Kole Calhoun, Avisail Garcia, and — somewhat surprisingly — even Nick Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna were considered.  The fact that the Marlins at least checked in on the latter two names could indicate that the team had at least some willingness to really expand their payroll, or it could be that they were simply doing due diligence to see if either Castellanos or Ozuna were willing to lower their asking price.  (As it happened, Ozuna did end up signing a one-year deal, but with the reigning NL East champion Braves.)

In the end, it will be Dickerson who mans left field at Marlins Park, as the 30-year-old looks to rebound from an injury-plagued 2019 campaign.  Dickerson was still very productive when healthy, batting .304/.341/.565 over 279 PA with the Pirates and Phillies, and anything close to those numbers would greatly boost a Marlins lineup that was arguably the worst in baseball last season.

In other offensive upgrades, the Marlins claimed Jesus Aguilar in the hopes that he can regain his 35-homer stroke from the 2018 season, and also signed Matt Joyce to share playing time in right field.  Garrett Cooper will see plenty of at-bats as either a first baseman or right fielder, with Aguilar or Joyce (or utilityman Jon Berti, or younger outfield options like Magneuris Sierra or Harold Ramirez) in the mix to handle the other position.

With Jorge Alfaro perhaps questionable for Opening Day due to an oblique injury, Miami’s signing of Francisco Cervelli looks like an even more important move.  Cervelli could end up getting a bit more time behind the plate than expected if Alfaro is on the injured list, though when Alfaro is back, Cervelli will slide into a backup role and offer a bit more seasoned glovework than the somewhat defensively erratic Alfaro.

Cervelli isn’t far removed from being one of the game’s better-hitting catchers, which fits the model of Miami’s approach to their position player acquisitions.  All of these players were solid-to-very good just last year (Joyce), as recently as 2018 (Aguilar, Cervelli, minor league signing Matt Kemp) or in both seasons (Dickerson, Villar).  Should the Marlins get some in-form production from the majority of these new faces and get continued improvement from the likes of Cooper, Alfaro, and Brian Anderson, Miami’s offense could take some pitchers by surprise.

The revamped bullpen also offers some upside, as Brandon Kintzler was signed to be the likely first choice at closer after the veteran righty’s solid 2019 season with the Cubs.  Kintzler is a few years removed from his last closing experience at the back of the Twins’ bullpen, but he’ll handle the ninth behind a core group that includes Ryne Stanek, minor league signing and former All-Star closer Brad Boxberger, and Yimi Garcia, inked to a big league deal after the Dodgers non-tendered him.  Garcia is perhaps the most intriguing of the newcomers, as his peripheral numbers hint at some real talent, were it not for the right-hander’s alarming propensity for allowing home runs.  Pitching at Marlins Park could help that issue to some extent, and if Garcia can more fully limit the damage, he could be something of a steal.

While this winter’s expenditures count as something of a spending spree by Marlins standards, they aren’t doling out any new money.  Villar’s $8.2MM and Miami’s $25.35MM in offseason free agents contracts just about match up to the 2019 salaries of several veterans who are no longer on the books (Martin Prado, Starlin Castro, Curtis Granderson, Neil Walker).  As per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Marlins’ projected $68.925MM Opening Day payroll is actually lower than their $71.9MM figure from last season’s opener.

In short, the Marlins might not have done enough this winter to escape the ire of the players’ union.  The MLB Players Association has filed an amended grievance against the Marlins (as well as the Pirates and the Rays) for their use of revenue-sharing funds in both the 2018-19 and 2017-18 offseasons.  Given that none of those clubs broke the bank over the last few months, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the 2019-20 offseason also added to this grievance.

It was no surprise that Miami didn’t spend big this winter, as the organization has been very clear about its intentions to build around young talent and resist the quick-fix splurges that often marked the Jeffrey Loria era.  It still might be a couple of years before the Marlins feel they have enough of a core group in place to ramp up spending as the White Sox and Reds did this offseason.

It’s a sign of progress, however, that the scorched-earth phase of the rebuild seems to be over.  Villar, Kintzler, or other veterans on short-term deals could well end up being moved at the trade deadline, but it doesn’t seem like younger talent is on the move.  Despite interest from multiple teams, the Marlins held onto controllable rotation arms like Caleb Smith, Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, and Jose Urena.  Miami seems ready to find out if the young players it already has in the fold could end up being part of that next Marlins winner, and it will be intriguing to see which of the pitchers and position players take that next step in 2020.

2020 Season Outlook

Will the Marlins lose 105 games again?  The NL East (and pretty much the entire National League) still looks quite competitive, but it seems on paper as if the Fish have done enough to get back down to double digits in the loss column.  Fangraphs projects “only” 95.5 losses for Miami in 2020, which counts as some small victory, but it would still be a big surprise if Miami escaped another last-place finish.

How would you grade the Marlins’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

Quick Hits: Sanchez, Mercado, Singer, Guerra

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Yet another Yankees star is dealing with an injury, as Gary Sanchez has missed the last two days of Spring Training action due to back soreness.  Yankees manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including George A. King III of the New York Post) that Sanchez will also sit out Monday’s game before hopefully returning to the field on Tuesday, though “we will kind of see how he responds.”  Sanchez said his back was already feeling improved after a day off, so there doesn’t appear to be any reason for serious concern at this point, despite Sanchez’s already rather checkered health history (plus the seemingly never-ending string of injuries to afflict the Yankees over the last year).

More from around the baseball world….

  • Oscar Mercado had an injury scare of his own when he left Thursday’s game after hurting his wrist diving for a ball in center field.  The Indians outfielder was diagnosed with a sprain, but “thankfully it was nothing” serious, Mercado told MLB.com’s Mandy Bell and other reporters this afternoon.  Mercado has already discarded the wrap that he had around his wrist for the last two days, and is now “getting better every day” after some initial discomfort.  “I’ve dove for balls, caught my wrist and stuff, it’s never hurt….That was one where I dove and I knew it was awkward, but the pain was pretty big, so I got scared,” Mercado said.  Given the positive early reports, Mercado might be on pace to achieve his goal of playing in Cleveland’s Opening Day lineup.
  • The Royals continue to look at top prospect Brady Singer in big league camp, and there’s still a chance Singer could fill the fifth starter role, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan writes.  Singer has a 4.76 ERA over 5 2/3 spring innings, striking out six batters and walking four.  Given that Singer has never even pitched at the Triple-A level yet, it would be a surprise to see him in the majors quite so soon, though Kansas City is clearly intrigued by the 23-year-old.  Selected 18th overall in the 2018 draft, Singer posted a 2.85 ERA, 8.4 K/9, and 3.54 K/BB rate over 148 1/3 combined innings at the high-A and Double-A levels, and is cited on the current top-100 prospect lists posted by MLB.com (59th) and Baseball Prospectus (64th).  There isn’t necessarily any urgency about the Opening Day roster, as since the Royals won’t need a fifth starter until April 8, Singer could continue to work out at extended Spring Training.  If not Singer, K.C. could use Jorge Lopez as a fifth starter, or perhaps use an opener rather than a traditional starter to handle the rotation spot.
  • Javy Guerra has recorded five strikeouts over 5 1/3 scoreless Spring Training innings, and is looking like a realistic candidate to make the Padres’ Opening Day bullpen, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes.  Guerra (not to be confused with longtime veteran reliever Javy Guerra, who pitches for the Nationals) was once a highly-regarded shortstop prospect coming up in the Padres’ farm system, but his progress stalled after three lackluster years at the plate.  He converted to pitching at the end of last year’s Spring Training in an effort to revive his career, and the early returns have been very impressive — Guerra posted a 3.38 ERA, 12.7 K/9, and 3.00 K/BB rate over 21 1/3 combined innings at high-A and Double-A ball last season before getting an eight-game audition in San Diego’s bullpen last season.  Now, the out-of-options Guerra is throwing his fastball at 99mph and, according to manager Jayce Tingler, could be in line for a multi-inning relief role.  “I’ve never seen somebody in (11) months go from shortstop to do what he’s done on the mound,” Tingler said.  “I’ve seen guys converted.  I’ve never seen such easy strikes with such premier velocity with movement and the ability to throw a secondary pitch.  Then having a shortstop background, somebody who can bounce off and make…plays, it’s like having a fifth infielder out there.”

Nationals Renew Juan Soto’s 2020 Contract

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The Nationals have renewed Juan Soto’s contract and will pay the outfielder $629.4K in 2020, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports (Twitter link).  The two sides were unable to agree on a salary for 2020, and thus the Nationals simply set their own figure for Soto’s contract in the coming season, as is the team’s right since Soto is a pre-arbitration player.

Each club has its own methodology for determining how much beyond the $563.5K minimum salary pre-arb players can earn, usually based on some type of formula that assigns extra money for service time and/or significant achievements.  Pre-arbitration players can’t really negotiate since the club controls their rights, so the large majority of pre-arb players simply agree to whatever figure is offered.  Some pre-arb players coming off particularly outstanding seasons, however, feel they should be better rewarded for this performance, and sometimes opt to turn down the team’s offered raise rather than accept what they feel is simply inadequate compensation.

Needless to say, Soto has delivered far above and beyond the slightly more than $1.1MM in salary he has earned over his first two MLB seasons.  As Soto enters his age-21 season, the phenom has already hit .287/.403/.535 with 56 homers over 1153 plate appearances, and played a primary role in the Nationals’ 2019 World Series championship.  As per Fangraphs’ evaluations, Soto has already delivered $67.9MM worth of production with his 8.5 career fWAR.

The Cardinals’ Jack Flaherty was another young star who took a renewal this spring rather than accepting his club’s terms, and several other notable players (including Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Carlos Correa, Blake Snell, Josh Hader, and even Soto’s Nats teammate Ryan Zimmerman) have also their pre-arb deals renewed over the years.  Flaherty described his decision to turn down the Cards’ offer as a matter of “principle,” and a protest against baseball’s salary structure rather than against his particular team.

As we saw with Trout, Snell, and Zimmerman, contract renewals didn’t lead to hard feelings that prevented those players from signing lucrative multi-year extensions with their teams.  There seemingly hasn’t been much news about a potential extension between Soto and the Nationals, though since Soto is controlled through the 2024 season, there isn’t any huge urgency on Washington’s part.

That said, Soto will become arbitration-eligible next winter and is sure to qualify as a Super Two player, so he’ll take four trips through the arb process instead of the usual three.  That will only make Soto’s price tag rise even higher if he continues to perform at his elite level, and thus the Nats would certainly have interest in gaining some cost certainty over the young superstar.  Scott Boras, Soto’s agent, is usually more likely to advise his clients to test free agency rather than accept an extension, and Soto would potentially be in line for a record-setting contract since he is scheduled to be a free agent in advance of his age-26 season.  Boras does have a long history of doing business with the Nationals, however, so it wouldn’t be surprising if a deal was indeed worked out to keep Soto in the District.

Matt Carasiti To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Giants right-hander Matt Carasiti will undergo Tommy John surgery tomorrow, The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly tweets.  Carasiti injured his elbow on Thursday, during his most recent Spring Training outing.

After signing a minors contract with San Francisco in January, Carasiti came to camp hoping to win a job in the Giants’ bullpen, and posted a 5.40 ERA with seven strikeouts and three walks over five spring innings.  That will unfortunately be his last mound action for at least a year, as Carasiti now faces a 12-14 month recovery period.

The 28-year-old righty has 25 1/3 Major League innings on his resume, spread out over two seasons — 15 2/3 frames with the Rockies in 2016 and then 9 2/3 IP with the Mariners last year.  In between those two stints, Carasiti pitched in the Cubs’ farm system and also spent a season in Japan with the Tokyo Yakult Swallows.  Originally a sixth-round pick for the Rockies in the 2012 draft, Carasiti has a 4.26 ERA, 8.0 K/9, and 2.35 K/BB rate over 432 2/3 career minor league innings.

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