Within a span of 37 days back in the 2015-16 offseason, the Cubs granted $184 million to Jason Heyward and the Orioles committed $161 million to Chris Davis. Four seasons in, these have become two of the worst free agent contracts in recent memory. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd breaks down how the players were perceived at the time and what’s gone wrong, in today’s video.
Archives for March 2020
Mets Made Offer To Edwin Jackson
Veteran right-hander Edwin Jackson received minor league offers from two teams before electing to reunite with one of his many previous teams – the Diamondbacks – back in February, Zach Buchanan of The Athletic reports (subscription link). The Mets were the other club in on Jackson, according to Buchanan.
To call the 36-year-old Jackson “well-traveled” would be an enormous understatement. Had he signed with the Mets and then earned a spot on their roster (very likely as a reliever), they would have been 15th team for which he has pitched in the majors. Jackson already set the record when he took the hill for Toronto, his 14th MLB employer, last season. Buchanan’s piece, which is worth checking out in full, details the unusual journey the well-liked Jackson has taken thus far.
Heading into this season, whenever it starts, Jackson is likely to open with Triple-A Reno, according to Buchanan. He does have a late-spring opt-out in his contract, though it’s possible MLB will delay that deadline. It also may not behoove Jackson to take advantage of the clause, considering he lives in Arizona and stumbled in the bigs a season ago. In 67 2/3 innings divided between Toronto and Detroit, Jackson put up a 9.58 ERA/7.65 FIP with 6.92 K/9 and 4.26 BB/9.
6 NL West Hitters Looking For Bounce-Back Years
Our preseason series focusing on notable hitters and pitchers hoping to rebound from less-than-ideal 2019 outings wraps up in the National League West. We’ll start with six hitters who enjoyed productive 2018 campaigns before falling short last season…
Manny Machado, 3B, Padres:
By no means did the 27-year-old Machado perform poorly in 2019, his first season as a Padre. He just didn’t offer the type of production the team likely expected when it signed him to a then-record free-agent contract worth $300MM over 10 years. Whereas the four-time All-Star thrived with the Orioles and Dodgers the year before he joined the Friars, he has been more good than great in San Diego so far. Across 661 trips to the plate last season, Machado batted .256/.334/.462 – enough for a 108 wRC+ (he was at 131 in 2018). He did mash 32 home runs and finish in the majors’ 87th percentile in average exit velocity, but Machado struck out in nearly 5 percent more plate appearances compared to 2018. Furthermore, according to Statcast, Machado’s hard-hit percentage fell by just over 4 percent.
Jurickson Profar, 2B, Padres:
The former can’t-miss prospect finally looked to be turning a corner at the major league level in 2018, his last year with the Rangers. Unfortunately, though, Profar’s output tanked in his lone season with the Athletics in 2019. The 27-year-old switch-hitter could only muster a .218/.301/.410 line (89 wRC+) and 1.3 fWAR in 518 PA, and Statcast rated him near the bottom of the league in several important metrics. As a second baseman, Profar garnered all negative reviews (minus-15 Defensive Runs Saved, minus-3 Outs Above Average, minus-1 Ultimate Zone Rating). Still, the Padres are taking a chance on a bounce-back year for Profar, whom they acquired in a winter trade. The move reunited him with ex-Rangers executive and current Padres general manager A.J. Preller.
David Peralta, OF, Diamondbacks:
Peralta had a terrific year in 2018, smacking 31 home runs and accounting for 3.9 fWAR, but a nagging right shoulder injury prevented him from a proper encore last season. The 32-year-old wound up with just 12 homers in 423 plate appearances, in which he registered an overall line barely above average (.275/.343/.461 – good for a 107 wRC+), saw his isolated power number fall by 37 points and his expected weighted on-base average plummet by 49 points. Nevertheless, the Diamondbacks are giving Peralta the benefit of the doubt, evidenced by the two-year, $22MM extension they handed him in January.
Brandon Crawford, SS, Giants:
Crawford entered last year with six straight seasons of at least 2.0 fWAR, but he dropped to 0.4 in that category in 2019. Crawford hit just .228/.304/.350 (74 wRC+) in 560 PA, and even his well-regarded defense declined. For the first time in his career, the 33-year-old graded negatively in both DRS (minus-4) and UZR (minus-0.4). Not reassuring for the Giants, who still owe Crawford $30MM through 2021.
Enrique Hernandez, UTIL, Dodgers:
The versatile Hernandez was quite effective in 2018, during which he posted 3.2 fWAR, but that number checked in at a far less impressive 1.2 last season. The problem? A massive decline in offensive production. Hernandez’s wRC+ (88) represented a 30-point fall, while his OPS (.715; .237/.304/.411) lost 91 points. It didn’t help that Hernandez endured a 4-plus percent increase in strikeouts and a 3 percent decrease in walks.
Daniel Murphy, 1B, Rockies:
Count Murphy as another recent free-agent signing gone awry for the Rockies, who inked him to a two-year, $24MM contract in December 2019. Year 1, perhaps the weakest offensive season of his career, couldn’t have gone much worse for Murphy. The 34-year-old ’s .279/.328/.452 line doesn’t look terrible on paper, but when adjusted for ballpark, it only amounted to a wRC+ of 86. Murphy also had a miserable season in terms of Statcast output and recorded a negative fWAR (minus-0.2) for the first time ever.
Breakout Candidate: Dinelson Lamet
Padres right-hander Dinelson Lamet may not be among Major League Baseball’s household names yet, but it could be only a matter of time before he joins those ranks. While Lamet hasn’t come close to preventing runs at an elite clip since he made his MLB debut in 2017, he has shown flashes that suggest a true breakout may not be out of the question.
Now 27 years old, Lamet caught on with the Padres out of the Dominican Republic in 2014. The franchise brought in Lamet, then 21, for $100K two years after a deal with the Phillies fell through. San Diego has since benefited from that fairly low-risk move.
After ascending through the minors, where he didn’t garner a significant amount of Triple-A experience, Lamet showed off a tantalizing fastball-slider mix during his first taste of MLB action three years ago. He wound up making 21 starts and tossing 114 1/3 innings of 4.57 ERA/4.35 FIP ball with 10.94 K/9 and 4.25 BB/9.
The hope, of course, was that Lamet would build on his respectable first-year effort the next season. Instead, though, he was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery on his pitching elbow in April 2018. The procedure cost Lamet that entire year and the majority of his last season, but he enjoyed an extremely promising showing after returning July 4.
Lamet shook off the rust with 14 starts and 73 frames of 4.07 ERA/3.91 FIP pitching. Those run prevention totals may not look sensational, but a deeper dive gives reason to believe that Lamet will continue his rise. Not only did Lamet cut his walk rate (3.7 per nine), but his strikeout rate rose to a jaw-dropping 12.95. Among 146 starters who threw at least 70 innings, Lamet ranked behind only Gerrit Cole and Chris Sale in K/9. His strikeout percentage (33.6) trailed just Cole, Sale, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Mike Clevinger. The other members of the top 10? Blake Snell, Lucas Giolito, Jacob deGrom and Robbie Ray. With the exceptions of Lamet and Ray (a solid starter in his own right), there isn’t a single pitcher there who’s not a front-line option.
Adding to the good news, Lamet was something of a Statcast hero during his abbreviated 2019. Take a look at where he ranked in these categories…
- Hard-hit rate: 69th percentile
- Expected weighted on-base average: 71st percentile
- Average exit velocity: 77th percentile
- Curve spin: 79th percentile
- Fastball spin: 81st percentile
- Average fastball velocity: 89th percentile
- Strikeout percentage: 93rd percentile
Well above average across the board. Lamet got there owing in part to an increase in velo (his average fastball reached 96.1 mph) and a slider that, according to Fangraphs’ pitch values, was among the most dominant offerings of its kind. As Ben Clemens of FanGraphs explained last August, Lamet was benefiting at the time from adding a second slider to his repertoire.
Lamet’s repertoire may have him on the cusp of busting out, though he’ll have to get the home runs under control. Granted, last season was a homer-happy year across baseball, but Lamet’s HR-to-fly ball percentage (19.7) was still bloated compared to most starters’. And that’s not going to work for someone who has induced grounders at a paltry 36.8 percent rate since he first set foot in the majors.
Aside from a need to cut down on HRs moving forward, Lamet also must show he can continue to stay healthy. That’s obviously not always easy for any hurler, let alone one with such a serious surgery in his past. But if Lamet can hold up, the Padres may have a potential breakout starter on their hands. That would be all the more welcome for a team that already has Chris Paddack fronting its rotation with MacKenzie Gore and Luis Patino among its prospects getting closer to the bigs.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Phillies, J.T. Realmuto Pause Extension Talks
Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto has been an obvious extension candidate for a while, but nothing has come together yet as he nears his final season of team control. With the coronavirus pushing back the start of the season for the foreseeable future, it doesn’t appear a new Realmuto pact will materialize in the near term. The Phillies and Realmuto have hit the pause button on negotiations for the time being, general manager Matt Klentak revealed Tuesday (via Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer).
As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd explained Tuesday, there isn’t a roster freeze or a moratorium on extensions, so teams and players aren’t prohibited from hammering out long-term agreements. On the other hand, with the start of the 2020 campaign off the table for a while, there’s a lot less urgency for the two sides to get something done. The Phillies had been prioritizing a preseason extension for Realmuto, though. Therefore, it stands to reason they’ll get back to work on one when there’s clarity regarding the date of Opening Day, if not sooner.
While Realmuto at least has a contract for this year, players from the Phillies and other teams who signed minor league deals containing opt-out clauses are facing quite a bit of uncertainty.
Klentak spoke on their statuses, saying: “We do not have clarity. There’s a possibility we will have to make some of those decisions this week.”
Philadelphia has a few established veterans who landed non-guaranteed pacts with opt-outs and were competing for big league roles before the postponement of spring training. As Lauber notes, infielders Neil Walker and Logan Forsythe and relievers Anthony Swarzak and Francisco Liriano may all exit their deals Thursday. Speculatively, however, MLB could push the deadlines back for players in those situations.
Latest On Willie Calhoun’s Recovery
The Rangers’ Willie Calhoun suffered a fractured jaw March 8, but the outfielder has made encouraging progress in the week-plus since then. Calhoun flew back to Texas with his teammates on Monday after receiving medical clearance, MLB.com TR Sullivan of MLB.com tweets. Aside from the fractured jaw, Calhoun’s not dealing with any other symptoms. He’s slated to begin light cardio activity later this week.
After taking a 95 mph fastball in the face from the Dodgers’ Julio Urias, Calhoun looked like a sure bet to open the season on the injured list. But that was before Major League Baseball shut down for an indeterminate amount of time because of the global coronavirus pandemic. It’s obvious that the longer play is halted, the better Calhoun’s chances are of logging a full season, though it’s anyone’s guess when the sport will resume or how many games the league will squeeze in this year.
A full slate from Calhoun would undoubtedly be welcome for the Rangers, who saw the former top-100 prospect turn into a solid contributor in 2019. Calhoun, 25, accrued a career-high 337 plate appearances and batted .269/.323/.524 with 21 home runs and an impressive 15.6 percent strikeout rate.
The health of Calhoun figures to affect the role of Nick Solak, also 25. Solak had been in line to fill in as the Rangers’ left fielder during Calhoun’s absence. Solak can move around the diamond, though, as he played second and third during his initial big league stint last season and lined up at all three outfield positions as a minor leaguer. And Solak certainly made a case for a larger role during his MLB debut last year, when he hit a robust .293/.393/.491 and tallied five homers in 135 trips to the plate.
Second Yankees Minor Leaguer Tests Positive For Coronavirus
5:20pm: The Yankees have confirmed the report, issuing a statement announcing that while in self-quarantine, the still-unnamed player reported “fatigue and an elevated body temperature” to team medical personnel. The player remains in quarantine, and his symptoms have begun to dissipate, per the club.
10:59am: A second, unnamed Yankees minor-leaguer has tested positive for coronavirus infection, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). The prior positive test emerged two days ago.
The Yankees and the rest of the league have already halted Spring Training, of course. But this transmission is surely the result of prior interactions between the players.
Some players are still training at spring sites. MLB players have been granted permission to do so at their own election. Most minor-leaguers have been ordered home, though some — injury rehabbers and some other ad hoc cases — have remained. The Yankees had already closed their facility after the initial positive test.
Heyman writes that some players — it’s not clear which — will remain in self-quarantine and receive testing. It’s not known just how this most recent positive test came about — presumably, the player showed symptoms — or precisely what broader testing plans the Yankees have.
There’s a broader point of controversy surrounding the apparent ability of sports teams to command tests while they still aren’t widely available. The Yankees previously indicated they had only procured one test (the previous positive).
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
MLB Teams Each Pledge $1 Million To Cover Lost Wages For Park Employees During Shutdown
All 30 Major League clubs have established $1MM funds to cover the lost wages of their gameday and event staffs during the league-wide shutdown, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (via Twitter). MLB commissioner Rob Manfred offered the following statement on the teams’ actions (Twitter thread via Joel Sherman of the New York Post):
Over the past 48 hours, I have been approached by representatives of all 30 clubs to help assist the thousands of ballpark employees affected by the delay in the start of the Major League Baseball season. Motivated by desire to help some of the most valuable members of the baseball community, each Club has committed $1 million. The individual clubs will be announcing more details surrounding this support effort in their local communities. The timing of these announcements will vary because of the need to coordinate with state and local laws as well as collective bargaining obligations in an effort to maximize the benefits realized by each group of employees. I am proud that our clubs came together so quickly and uniformly to support these individuals who provide so much to the game we love.
It’s a nice gesture of goodwill and solidarity by all 30 teams, as thousands of ballpark employees throughout the league saw their livelihoods impacted and threatened by the absence of games being played. There are still, of course, other issues to address — namely the manner in which minor league players will be compensated during the hiatus.
As covered here earlier today, non-40-man players aren’t protected by the MLBPA and are currently set to go without their already meager salaries during the unexpected work stoppage. Some clubs — the Rays, Mets and Dodgers among them — are allotting a $400 weekly stipend through the end of the month, although that’s a temporary solution to a much larger-scale problem.
Justin Verlander Undergoes Surgery To Repair Groin Injury
The Astros announced Tuesday that right-hander Justin Verlander underwent a surgical procedure on his right groin. He’d been slowed by a lat strain earlier this month, but Verlander was also scratched from an earlier spring start due to tightness in his groin. That was deemed a precautionary measure at the time, but general manager James Click revealed today that the right-hander had a setback in rehabbing the issue.
“The hope was that physical therapy would be the proper course of action,” Click told reporters (Twitter link via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). “However, after a recent setback in his rehab, the medical staff recommended that a surgical procedure was necessary. The early prognosis is that Justin will be out for about six weeks.”
With the season pushed back at least eight weeks — quite likely longer than that — Verlander should have ample time to get back up to speed once players are cleared to resume training and once a firm target date for Opening Day is established.
Verlander’s health is paramount for the Astros more than ever, now that Gerrit Cole and (to a lesser extent) Wade Miley have departed via free agency. Houston’s 2020 roster is pricey enough that they’ll face luxury-tax penalties for the first time, and the front office opted to spend the limited resources afforded by owner Jim Crane to bring back catcher Martin Maldonado and reliever Joe Smith.
The hope is certainly that a returning Lance McCullers Jr. and young righty Jose Urquidy, whose stock soared in 2019, can join Verlander and Greinke in comprising a formidable top four. Offseason acquisition Austin Pruitt and holdovers like Brad Peacock, Josh James and Framber Valdez could all be in the mix for starts in the final rotation slot. Right-hander Rogelio Armenteros could eventually be in the mix, although he recently underwent surgery to have a bone spur removed from his elbow. Unlike Verlander, he’ll be sidelined for around four months, so he wouldn’t be an option to pitch until July at the earliest. Given the uncertainty regarding Opening Day, it’s anyone’s guess as to what point in the season that’ll be — or if the season will have even started.
