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Latest On Talks Between MLB, MLBPA

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The unfortunate reality is that we’re all but certain to see fewer Major League Baseball games than usual in 2020. That could have an effect on many different aspects, including players’ service time. That’s always a contentious issue, evidenced in part by Kris Bryant’s battle with the Cubs during the offseason, though it does seem the league and the players are coming together on the matter during this time of crisis.

According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link), MLB is going to grant a full year of service time to all players who remain active throughout the upcoming campaign, no matter how many games are played. That could obviously have an impact on teams’ decisions to promote their prospects if a 2020 season takes place, not to mention the effect on upcoming free-agent classes. It’s no doubt welcome news for someone like all-world Dodgers outfielder Mookie Betts, a contract-year player who needs 102 more days of service time to reach the open market. Considering the current circumstances, neither Betts nor anyone else may be in position to accrue 102 days this year.

In the event of a coronavirus-forced worst-case scenario that would rob us of baseball in 2020, how would the sport proceed with respect to service time? That’s unclear right now, per Rosenthal, who writes that the league and the players remain hopeful that “as many games as possible” will occur in 2020.

The sides continue to negotiate on various matters, reports Rosenthal, who adds that the union sent its latest proposal Tuesday. The United States is amid a national emergency, thus giving commissioner Rob Manfred the right to withhold players’ salaries. But the league’s not doing that as of now. Rather, it offered a lump-sum advance of over $150MM (more than $125K per 40-man roster player) during earlier talks with the union, Rosenthal relays. However, the parties are still trying to hammer out an agreement that works for the two of them.

GM Trade History: Jeff Luhnow

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It wasn’t long ago that many regarded Jeff Luhnow as one of the best general managers in baseball. The former Cardinals executive took the reins of a horrible Houston team after the 2011 season, oversaw a couple atrocious campaigns and then helped it morph into a juggernaut. Thanks in part to Luhnow’s work, the Astros are coming off three straight seasons of at least 100 victories. They won their first-ever World Series in 2017 and took home the American League pennant in 2019 on Luhnow’s watch.

Despite the accomplishments the Astros piled up under Luhnow, he’s now disgraced, suspended for a year and unemployed. Everything came crashing down for Luhnow during the offseason because of an Astros sign-stealing scandal that has called their recent success into question. As a result, Luhnow may never work in baseball again, let alone as a GM. Nevertheless, it’s worth looking back on his tenure atop the Astros’ baseball operations.

With no real baseball going on for the foreseeable future, MLBTR’s Jeff Todd began a series Tuesday examining the trade histories of GMs. We might explore all current GMs’ swaps, but even though he’s without a job, Luhnow makes for a fascinating enough case to warrant his own post. With that said, we’ll take a look back at the notable trades Luhnow made in Houston. You can assess his trade history after reviewing it…

2011-12 Offseason

2012 Season

2012-13 Offseason

2013 Season

2013-14 Offseason

2014 Season

2014-15 Offseason

2o15 Season

2015-16 Offseason

2016 Season

2016-17 Offseason

2017 Season

2017-18 Offseason

2018 Season

2018-19 Offseason

2019 Season

2019-20 Offseason

No one knows whether Luhnow will get another chance as a GM. His history of trades may play a role in that. How do you think he did in that department during his reign in Houston? (Poll link for app users)

Latest on Shohei Ohtani, Griffin Canning

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Angels two-way player Shohei Ohtani has progressed in his rehab to throwing off of flat ground, Angels GM Billy Eppler tells reporters, including Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic (Twitter link). This seems to be in line with the timeline laid out last month, where he was expected to be able to rejoin the rotation by mid-May. Ardaya says that Ohtani could try throwing off a mound again in a couple weeks, which would be early April. And given that mid-May is the earliest the season could start, it’s seeming likely that Ohtani could be ready to go by Opening Day, regardless of when it is.

Griffin Canning, on the other hand, seems to be behind his rotation mate in terms of his rehab timeline. Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports on Twitter that Eppler says Canning is still about a week away from throwing. Canning’s timeline after that is less clear. Unlike Ohtani, who is following a fairly well-understood rehab process to come back from Tommy John surgery, Canning is seemingly trying to avoid an extended absence. His initial diagnosis last month did involve “chronic changes” to his ulnar collateral ligament, but no tearing. Shortly after that, he received “biological injections” to treat his elbow. (Fletcher’s tweet refers to PRP, or a platelet-rich plasma injection.) Whether this path back to health will be effective remains to be seen, but next week’s throwing sessions will be the first step in ascertaining as much.

As recently laid out by Connor Byrne of MLBTR, the delayed start to the season could actually be a boon to the Angels precisely because it reduces the amount of time that the team would need to hobble along with a weakened rotation. It’s now possible that the rotation could consist of Ohtani and Canning, along with Andrew Heaney, Julio Teheran and Dylan Bundy. This would potentially bump Patrick Sandoval, Matt Andriese, Jaime Barria and Dillon Peters into the bullpen or depth positions in the minors.

Red Sox Minor Leaguer Tests Positive For Coronavirus

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An unnamed Red Sox minor leaguer has tested positive for COVID-19, the team announced Tuesday. According to the statement:

His positive test occurred on March 23rd following his return home and he was last at the Fenway South Player Development Complex on March 15th.  Given the timing of the player’s positive test and travel, we believe it is more likely that he contracted COVID-19 after he left Fort Myers.  Nevertheless, out of an abundance of caution, the club is shutting down Fenway South from all activity effective today, for at least two weeks.

The statement goes on to say that the facility will now receive a “deep cleaning” and that anyone who came into contact with this player has been instructed to go into self-quarantine for two weeks.

This illustrates the potential dangers of attempting to maintain camps and group workouts during the pandemic. According to Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com, many Red Sox players, including major leaguers, had still been working out at the facility (Twitter link). Hopefully, the team is correct in its assessment that the player in question contracted the virus after leaving.

This is now the fourth case of a positive test for COVID-19 for someone connected to Major League Baseball, joining a Reds employee and two minor leaguers in the Yankees system. The statement notes that the player in question is “doing well” but does not elaborate because of privacy concerns.

Rebound Candidate: Justin Smoak

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The Brewers entered the free-agent period with a void at first base. They let go of their top option from last year, Eric Thames, declining his $7.5MM club option for 2020 in favor of a $1MM buyout. Months before that, the Brewers traded right-handed complement Jesus Aguilar to the Rays. The Brewers are now set to rely on former Mariner, Ranger and Blue Jay Justin Smoak, whom they signed to a $5MM guarantee in December. Smoak’s contract also includes a $5.5MM option for 2021. Both prices are eminently fair, and there’s reason to believe that Smoak will justify Milwaukee’s investment.

To start off, it’s worth noting how Smoak got to this point. He’s a former standout prospect who has seldom matched the hype. The switch-hitting 33-year-old owns a mediocre .231/.324/.420 line with a 104 wRC+ (the league-average mark is 100) and 6.2 fWAR across 4,618 plate appearances. However, Smoak did somewhat begin to realize his potential in recent years. He put up in the best years of his career from 2017-18, a 1,231-PA stretch in which he batted .256/.353/.495 (128 wRC+) with 63 of his 191 home runs and posted almost all of his lifetime fWAR (5.3).

On the heels of his two consecutive strong seasons, there wasn’t reason to think Smoak would fall off in 2019. Unfortunately for him and the Blue Jays, it happened. He took 500 trips to the plate and could only muster a line of .208/.342/.406 (101 wRC+). Smoak did amass another 22 homers, but his overall production (0.2 fWAR) rendered him a replacement player. So, if you’re a Brewers fan who isn’t expecting much from Smoak in 2020, that’s understandable. However, it does appear that he deserved better a season ago, which could bode well for this year.

Despite his so-so output in his last campaign in Toronto, Smoak did manage much better strikeout and walk numbers than the typical hitter. He drew a free pass 15.8 percent of the time, almost doubling the MLB mean of 8.5 percent, and struck out in 21.2 percent of plate appearances (the league average was 23 percent). Additionally, he upped his hard-hit rate by almost 9 percent from 2018, according to FanGraphs. Smoak also swung and missed in just 8.9 percent of PA (the normal hitter checked in at 11.1) and rated as one of Statcast’s favorite under-the-radar offensive players from last season. He ranked in the league’s 72nd percentile in average exit velocity (90.3 mph), its 76th percentile in expected slugging percentage (.495, crushing his actual mark of .406) and its 86th percentile in expected weighted on-base average (.366, far outdoing his real wOBA of .323).

None of the above guarantees Smoak will rebound in 2020. That said, when you combine his bottom-line production from 2018-19 with his under-the-hood numbers from last year, he looks like a logical bounce-back candidate for this season. From the low-budget Brewers’ perspective, it was worthwhile to take a chance on Smoak.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Poll: The 2020 Draft

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Thanks to the coronavirus pandemic, there is no telling whether we’ll even get a Major League Baseball season this year. That uncertainty also affects important off-field events that include the amateur draft. The draft is still slated to take place from June 10-12, though nobody knows if it will actually occur this year.

As we noted last week, carrying on with the draft as scheduled would be the ideal scenario for the sport. Otherwise, the lives of many draft-eligible players could be thrown (even more) into chaos. How would a cancellation or postponement impact college juniors and seniors? How would it affect prospects who are about to graduate high school? Those players’ seasons – including those who would have participated in the College World Series – have already come to a halt because of this global catastrophe that has has put a stop to scouting.

Teams have less information on prospects than they normally would, but at least one executive is unfazed. That person told Ken Rosenthal and Jayson Stark of The Athletic (subscription link): “We’re not going to have an opportunity to dot the ‘i’s and cross the ‘t’s. But we’ve got a lot of information. We’ve seen these guys play for a long time. We know who the top players are. Let’s just get ‘em in our system.”

A shorter draft (two to three rounds) could take place, as Rosenthal and Stark write, but such an event would require teams to readjust their draft pools and how they handle undrafted players. The players may not be gung-ho on the idea, anyway. One person on the union’s side told Rosenthal and Stark that it would be a “colossal error” to go in that direction.

How to proceed with the draft is one of numerous difficult situations for which the league is going to have to find an answer. We’d all like to see the draft happen on time. Otherwise, though, MLB will have to push the festivities back to later this year or perhaps even combine this draft with the 2021 version.

(Poll link for app users)

GM Trade History: D-Backs’ Mike Hazen

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It’s not always fair to judge baseball operations leaders for free agent signings. In many cases, the biggest contracts are negotiated to varying extents by ownership. The same can hold true of major extensions. It’s just tough to know from the outside.

There’s obviously involvement from above in trade scenarios as well. But when it comes to exchanging rights to some players for others, it stands to reason, the role of the general manager is all the more clear.

In any event, for what it’s worth, it seemed an opportune moment to take a look back at the trade track records of some of the general managers around the game. First up: Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen. (In chronological order and excluding minor deals. Full details at transaction link.)

2019-20 Offseason

2019 Season

2018-19 Offseason

2018 Season

2017-18 Offseason

2017 Season

2016-17 Offseason

—

So … how would you grade Hazen’s overall work as a dealmaker? (Poll link for app users.)

Rookie Radar: AL Central

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The delayed start to the 2020 season will obviously have a wide range of massive effects on Major League Baseball. Among them: a totally different promotional timeline for some of the game’s most exciting young players. We will never know how things would’ve unfolded. And we don’t yet even know what the parameters are for an altered season. But there’s no doubting the impact.

Typically, opportunities open as rosters evolve over the course of a grueling, 162-game season. Some top prospects force their way up to the majors; others are called upon because a need arises. In a shorter campaign, there’ll be less attrition … though we may also see relaxed roster rules and changes to allocation of service time that could create opportunities.

Still, with more time to examine rosters and think about the state of the game, there’s an opportunity to stop and appreciate the young talent on the cusp of the majors. We’ll run through the most interesting prospects pressing for near-term MLB action. Having already looked at the American League West, let’s head to the AL Central:

Indians

Third baseman Nolan Jones won’t be tasked with a big league job out of the gates, but could be an option if there’s a need and/or he develops as hoped. Soon to turn 22, Jones has done nothing but produce in the minors. He’s due for a bit more seasoning at Triple-A but is close to ready.

Otherwise, most of the best-regarded Cleveland farmhands are further off. But there are some other prospects of note who are immediate factors. Relievers Emmanuel Clase and James Karinchak could hold key bullpen roles, though the former will first need to get to full health. Southpaw Logan Allen is a swingman option. First baseman Bobby Bradley and outfielder Daniel Johnson are both on the 40-man roster and ready for MLB chances after strong seasons in the upper minors. (Bradley also made a brief 2019 debut but struggled in the bigs.)

Royals

The rebuilding Royals need not be in any rush, but top pitching prospects Brady Singer and Jackson Kowar could force the organization’s hand. The former sprinted to Double-A in his first professional season; the latter in his second. They both looked plenty comfortable at the penultimate level of the minors and will likely dictate their own timelines.

Otherwise, there are only a few players with significant “prospect” billing who seem likely to be near-term options. Outfielder Nick Heath and third baseman Kelvin Gutierrez are both on the 40-man roster, so could be called upon to fill any injury gaps. Outfielder Khalil Lee is considered a higher-upside young player, though he’ll need to polish some things up if he’s to force his way onto the MLB roster in 2020. The pitching staff could call upon inexperienced arms including Scott Blewett, Chance Adams, and Richard Lovelady.

Twins

The Minnesota organization just keeps getting more intriguing. Depending upon the development of some top prospects and needs at the MLB level, it could be another year for interesting graduations … or one to watch and wait.

Top prospects Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff both have the ability and the positioning to press for the majors in the near term. But will they force the issue … or will there be an opening? The Twins aren’t in need of help at shortstop or in the outfield, at least on paper, but both have star-level upside and will get their chance when the time is right.

Outfielder/first baseman Brent Rooker doesn’t have a clear path to the bigs just yet but could get a look if a need arises. Though he is no longer considered an elite prospect, infielder Nick Gordon is also a near-term option. His situation is helped by the fact he already has a 40-man roster spot. Likewise, having already debuted, lefty Lewis Thorpe is perhaps the best-regarded Minnesota pitching prospect who’s an immediate possibility for the majors, though we’ll surely see fellow lefty Devin Smeltzer and right-hander Randy Dobnak in 2020 as well. Both impressed in their 2019 debuts. Flamethrowing righty Jorge Alcala allowed two runs in 20 innings between Double-A, Triple-A and the Majors after moving to the ’pen in late July.

Tigers

The Detroit organization is banking on its pitching factory. We’ll begin to see the results in the immediate future. Top starting prospects Matt Manning, Casey Mize, Beau Burrows, and Alex Faedo are all nearing readiness. And the team also has some promising relievers on tap, including Bryan Garcia, Anthony Castro, and perhaps Rule 5 choice Rony Garcia. Precisely when and how these arms will be slotted into the MLB staff remains to be seen. In the starting staff, especially, the organization has others in line first. But mid-season movement is highly possible (depending, in no small part, upon what shape the 2020 season takes).

Though the position-player side of the farm isn’t as loaded, there are quite a few near-term candidates for MLB roles. Infielders Isaac Paredes, Willi Castro, and Sergio Alcantara all have 40-man spots and can be called upon as soon as there’s a need or desire to do so. Ditto outfielder Daz Cameron, a player who has had ups and downs in the minors but still possesses a fairly lofty ceiling. Catcher Jake Rogers had an abysmal debut with the bat but hit well in the upper minors last year and is considered a quality defender.

White Sox

Last but certainly not least … the South Siders are stacked with young players who’ll be given MLB trials in the near term. Recently extended center fielder Luis Robert leads the charge as one of the game’s most touted prospects. But there are other blue-chippers as well. Given the delay in the season, high-upside righty Michael Kopech will have a chance to finish rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. And recent first-rounder Nick Madrigal has little left to show in the upper minors. He could take over at second base and push Leury Garcia into a utility role.

Those are the big names, but there are others as well. Infielder Danny Mendick had a nice cup of coffee last year and could also be a platoon option at second base or take on a utility job. With a 26th roster spot to work with, bat-first catchers Zack Collins and Seby Zavala could play interesting roles. Righties Zack Burdi and Ian Hamilton will have to overcome health troubles but could end up playing significant roles in the bullpen if they’re able.

2020 Olympics Postponed; Latest On Baseball In Korea & Japan

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It’s now official: the 2020 Tokyo Olympics will not take place as scheduled. When they’ll occur remains to be seen, but the announcement indicates the hope is to stage the games no later than next summer.

That’s a matter of direct interest to the many ballplayers who had been slated to participate. It’s also the latest in a string of dramatic blows to the sporting world delivered by the coronavirus pandemic.

There’s still no real sense of when and how Major League Baseball will ramp up for the 2020 season. But even with the cancellation of the Olympics, there is some relatively hopeful news from across the Pacific. MLB’s peers in Asia are now getting in the swing of things, albeit haltingly.

In Korea, it’s possible that exhibition contests will begin within two weeks, Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap reports on Twitter. The Korea Baseball Organization won’t begin until some point after April 20th, but the gears are now turning toward a resumption of play.

That effort hasn’t been without its interruptions. The Doosan Bears just became the latest KBO club to pause team training work due to a concern with internal spread of the virus. Yoo tweets that he has now counted seven such interruptions as the league tries to achieve the difficult balance of proceeding with their season while also protecting personnel and respecting the broader public health needs.

Over in Japan, the league is eyeing an Opening Day no sooner than April 24th, per a Nikkan Sports report (Japanese language link; h/t Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker, via Twitter). But that’s still a hypothetical goal. The Olympic postponement will bear on the plans in Japan, as there’s now additional scheduling flexibility to work with.

Those professional leagues will still face huge challenges as they proceed. But these efforts suggest there’s still a near-term path for professional sports in countries that gain some measure of control over the spread of the virus.

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