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Archives for February 2020

Yoan Lopez Switches Agencies

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Diamondbacks right-hander Yoan Lopez has made a change in his representation, according to reporter Robert Murray (Twitter link).  Lopez is now being represented by Wasserman.

Lopez is coming off his first full Major League season, as he posted a 3.41 ERA, 2.47 K/BB rate, and 6.2 K/9 over 60 2/3 innings out of Arizona’s bullpen.  While the bottom-line results were solid, there were some notable red flags in Lopez’s performance, namely some of the highest exit velocity and hard-hit ball rates of any pitcher in the sport.  With a .370 xwOBA that soared above his .298 wOBA, Lopez seemingly benefited greatly from a .233 BABIP that saw much of opposing batters’ solid contact go for naught.  In terms of ERA predictors, Lopez had a 5.03 FIP, 4.47 xFIP, and 4.60 SIERA that all greatly exceeded his 3.41 ERA.

There’s clearly a lot to improve on if Lopez is to continue as a reliable member of the Snakes’ bullpen, though he did display some durability in appearing in 70 games, and he was effective against both left-handed (.723 OPS) and right-handed (.728 OPS) batters.  He also averages a blistering 96.3 mph on his fastball.

Lopez might be best known for receiving the highest bonus ever given to an international amateur player at the time of his signing back in January 2015.  That $8.27MM bonus single-handedly put the D’Backs over the old international spending limit, thus forcing the club to pay a 100 percent tax on the overage and placing the D’Backs into two years of limitations in the international market.  Arizona was limited to signings of $300K or less in two consecutive July 2 signing periods (2015-16 and 2016-17), which was seen as one of the critical errors of the Dave Stewart/Tony La Russa front office.

Some struggles both on and off the field in the minor leagues led to some speculation as to whether Lopez would even reach the Show, though the hard-throwing righty did finally get on track and now has 69 2/3 MLB innings under his belt.  He remains under team control through the 2024 season, so Lopez’s move to Wasserman seemingly wasn’t made with a forthcoming trip to the open market in mind.

MLBTR has already noted Lopez’s agency change in our Agency Database. If you see any notable errors or omissions, please let us know via email: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.

Who Signs First, Yasiel Puig Or Brock Holt?

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After two winters of pretty stagnant free agent movement, it is somewhat remarkable that 48 of the players on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list have already found new teams by February 2.  We look back at all these signings and the nonstop array of misses in our — okay, my — set of picks in the free agent prediction contest, only two players remain available, both former All-Stars: the controversial Yasiel Puig (37th in our rankings) and longtime Red Sox utilityman Brock Holt (41st).

Jeff Todd examined Puig’s market earlier this week, listing a wide range of teams that could still be speculative fits for the outfielder.  The problem facing Puig, however, is that “speculation” is all we have to go on after an offseason that has been short on hard news about the former Dodger.  The Marlins and White Sox were both linked to Puig at various points, though those clubs seem to have already addressed their outfield needs, as Miami signed Corey Dickerson and Chicago acquired Nomar Mazara in a trade with the Rangers.  An argument could be made that Puig might still be a fit for the Sox as a platoon partner with Mazara, though the Pale Hose seem committed to seeing if Mazara can still blossom as an everyday player (and if necessary, another right-handed outfielder could potentially be found at a lower price tag than Puig).

The Tigers were our pick for Puig’s next team back in November, though GM Al Avila recently said that Puig was “not a priority” for the club, despite Detroit’s lack of outfield depth.  It could be a bit of gamesmanship on Avila’s part if there are some negotiations going on with Puig’s representatives, though it could also reflect a potential league-wide truth — Puig isn’t seen as a must-have option.  He might not receive many looks until we get deeper into Spring Training, and opportunities develop due to injuries, or teams becoming dissatisfied with their in-house outfield choices.

Puig hasn’t been his biggest ally due to some of his off-the-field antics, though that focus on his personality tends to obscure the fact that he is still only 29 years old, and still a productive player.  Even acknowledging that 2019 was a down year, Puig still batted .267/.327/.458 with 24 homers over 611 PA with the Reds and Indians, good for a league-average 100 OPS+ and 101 wRC+.  You have to figure that some team will eventually take the leap to sign Puig because of what he has demonstrated over his seven MLB seasons.

Holt is older (31) than Puig and seemingly has none of the baggage, as Holt was popular with both teammates and fans over seven years with the Red Sox.  Holt has been a classic jack-of-all-trades over his career, making at least nine starts at every position on the diamond except pitcher and catcher and filling in whenever a need has arisen.  For instance, Holt has primarily played second base over the last two years due to Dustin Pedroia’s ongoing knee problems.  Over 2295 plate appearances, Holt has also provided a solid average (.271) and on-base percentage (.340), even if his .374 slugging percentage doesn’t promise much pop.

Given the trend towards multi-positional players in today’s game, it is somewhat surprising that Holt is still looking for a new team.  With so many clubs seemingly trying to develop a young player into their own version of a super-utilityman like Holt, you’d think one team would have moved to sign the 1.0 version now that he has hit the open market.  Then again, the catch-22 of Holt’s versatility is that while it makes him a fit on virtually any team in baseball, it also (like Puig’s situation) doesn’t make him a “priority” of a signing.  As in, teams will turn to Holt to fill roster holes, but only after they see if their current utility candidates can pan out.

The Reds and Blue Jays have both shown interest in Holt this winter, and the Red Sox also had some talks about a reunion early in the offseason, though there hasn’t been any news on that front since Chaim Bloom was hired as Boston’s chief baseball officer.

We still have time before Spring Training opens, so it might yet be a while before either Puig or Holt put pen to paper on a new contract.  But which do you think will be the first to land with a team?

(Poll link for app users)

Phillies Sign Logan Forsythe To Minors Contract

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The Phillies have agreed to sign infielder Logan Forsythe to a minor league deal, MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo tweets.  Forsythe will receive an invitation to Philadelphia’s big league Spring Training camp.

This will mark the second minor league deal in as many years for Forsythe, though last winter’s pact with the Rangers translated into some pretty regular playing time (and $2MM in salary) at the MLB level.  Forsythe played in 101 games for Texas and received 367 plate appearances, hitting .227/.325/.353 with seven home runs.  Fueled by a .404 BABIP over his first 167 PA, Forsythe began his year with a scorching .307/.410/.486 slash line before his fortune turned, and he hit only .164/.255/.249 over his final 200 PA (with a .221 BABIP over that stretch).

The 33-year-old Forsythe will now look to win himself a bench job amidst a Phillies infield that has some moving parts.  Philadelphia is set to go with Rhys Hoskins at first base, Jean Segura moving to second base, the newly-signed Didi Gregorius installed at shortstop, and Scott Kingery at third base.  Kingery, however, is still expected to get his fair share of time in center field or elsewhere around the diamond, leaving room for another infielder.  The Phillies will have Forsythe, Josh Harrison, T.J. Rivera, Ronald Torreyes, Neil Walker, and Phil Gosselin in camp battling for that job, with that entire group perhaps ultimately slated for pure backup duty if and when top prospect Alec Bohm is called up to the Show.

After excelling as the Rays’ regular second baseman in 2015-16, Forsythe has struggled at the plate over the last three seasons and gradually became a utility player with the Dodgers, Twins, and Rangers.  He saw action at all four infield positions in 2019 and also has past experience as a corner outfield, so that extra versatility could give him a bit of a leg up in garnering a spot on Philadelphia’s 26-man roster.

Extension Candidate: J.T. Realmuto

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It has been almost exactly one full year since J.T. Realmuto became a member of the Phillies, and needless to say, the Phils didn’t swing that trade with the intention of only keeping Realmuto for two seasons.  There has been talk of a potential contract extension between the two sides for several months, with mutual interest between both Realmuto and the club in a long-term commitment.

First things first, however, the All-Star catcher and the team are headed towards an arbitration hearing after a rather large difference in their submitted salary figures.  The Phillies offered Realmuto $10MM, while the backstop and his camp are looking for $12.4MM, in part out of a desire to move the line forward for future catchers going through the arb process.

It’s possible that this hearing could be avoided altogether if a Realmuto extension includes the 2020 season, though the Phillies could prefer to deal with Realmuto’s 2020 salary as a separate matter for luxury tax purposes.  Since every player’s tax number is determined by the average annual value of their contact, an extension that covers the 2020 season would put Realmuto’s value for the coming year at a much higher total than $10MM or $12.4MM, and thus would put the Phillies much closer to the $208MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold.  As per Roster Resource, the Phillies are already close to the line with a projected tax number of roughly $204.6MM.

J.T. Realmuto

As NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury noted back in November, a Realmuto extension that didn’t begin until the 2021 season would give the Phillies some extra breathing room under the tax limit.  Jake Arrieta, Didi Gregorius, and (if a club option isn’t exercised) David Robertson are all scheduled for free agency, which removes $45MM in salary obligations off the books.

If Realmuto’s extension doesn’t begin until 2021, however, that also changes the earning framework.  Realmuto turns 29 in March, so an extension would therefore begin with his age-30 season, knocking one year of his prime out of the contractual conversation.

That said, being out of his 20’s won’t stop Realmuto from landing one of the richest contracts ever awarded to a catcher.  The Oklahoma native has delivered four straight years of outstanding play, hitting .283/.335/.464 with 74 home runs over 2248 plate appearances for the Marlins and Phillies since the start of the 2016 season.  Defensively, Realmuto has been an above-average catcher over that stretch, and his glovework took a big step forward in 2019, as Baseball Prospectus ranked him at or near the top of the list in framing, blocking, and throwing out baserunners.  (Realmuto won his first career Gold Glove for his efforts.)

Health-wise, there isn’t too much concern for Realmuto after six MLB seasons.  While he underwent right meniscus surgery in September, the procedure was considered to be more of a general cleanup, and nothing that would keep Realmuto from missing any time this season or even in Spring Training.  His only injured list appearance was a three-week stint in April 2018 due to a back contusion, and both the Marlins and Phillies have sporadically played Realmuto at first base to help keep him fresh while still keeping his bat in the lineup.

Yasmani Grandal’s four-year, $73MM free agent deal with the White Sox from November provides a fresh comparable for a Realmuto extension, and gives Realmuto’s agents at CAA Sports a clear floor for negotiations.  Grandal received his deal entering his age-31 season, so an easy case could be made for Realmuto to receive at least a five-year, $91.25MM pact.

As we saw with Realmuto’s arbitration case, he has an eye towards helping catchers of the future, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him seek an extension that hits a couple of notable benchmarks — a deal that would make him the third catcher to both earn a contract worth $100MM or more (after Joe Mauer and Buster Posey) and also earn $20MM in average annual value (after Mauer and Yadier Molina).  Something as simple as a five-year, $100MM extension would check both of those boxes, though I could see Realmuto seeking a bit more in order to top Molina’s $20MM AAV.

Matching or surpassing the $23MM average annual value of Mauer’s contract probably isn’t feasible, as that record-setting eight-year/$184MM deal began with Mauer’s age-28 season.  Offering a higher AAV over a shorter timeframe has some advantages for Philadelphia, as the team wouldn’t be paying Realmuto too deep into his mid-30’s, though the Phillies might prefer to spread Realmuto’s value out to lessen his luxury tax hit.

Could a six-year deal be palatable for the Phillies?  Realmuto has been a durable performer, as mentioned earlier, and he could be transitioned into a first base role as he approaches his mid-30’s.  Depending on what the Phillies decide to do with Rhys Hoskins in terms of a future extension, Realmuto could even be a candidate to take over first base after the 2023 season, which is Hoskins’ final year of team control.  Philadelphia has a few interesting but non-elite catching prospects (Rafael Marchan, Deivy Grullon, Rodolfo Duran) who could be groomed as Realmuto’s eventual backup or successor, or perhaps even turned into trade chips if Realmuto ends up having the catcher position on lockdown for first half of the decade.

Six years could end up being a bridge too far for the Phillies, though Realmuto could have some leverage in pointing out the weakness of the projected 2020-21 free agent catching market.  While some decent backstops will be available, none are anywhere near Realmuto’s level, and his departure would leave Philadelphia back at square one behind the plate.  For a Phillies team that plans to become a consistent contender and has already shown its willingness to spend, letting arguably the sport’s best catcher walk away in free agency would seem like a curious move, especially given the significant package of young talent (Sixto Sanchez, Jorge Alfaro, Will Stewart) the Phils gave up to get Realmuto from Miami in the first place.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Quick Hits: Hoyer, Cubs, Moreland, Jays, Phillies

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“The activity of our offseason isn’t indicative of how much we’ve been on the phone and have been working,” Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer told ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers as part of a Q&A session.  It has been a quiet winter in Wrigleyville, as the Cubs have been limited to minor league signings and a couple of low-cost MLB contracts as the club is seemingly operating with a very limited amount of available payroll.  The Cubs have yet to make any major acquisitions or trade away any big in-house contracts to free up more luxury tax space, though while Hoyer admitted “this is obviously likely to be one of our less active offseasons,” more transactions could be on the horizon.  “We’ve been incredibly active making calls and exploring options,” the GM said, adding that he expects “the trade market will continue to be an active place well into February.”

Here are some more notes to kick off both Groundhog Day and Super Bowl Sunday….

  • Before re-signing with the Red Sox, Mitch Moreland received offers from at least two other clubs, the Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham writes.  “The biggest thing for me was I’ve enjoyed my time in Boston.  It feels like home for us and there’s a good group of guys.  I’m comfortable there,” said Moreland, who has played the last three seasons with the Sox.  “It’s a good family atmosphere, too, and that means a lot to me.”  Moreland was eager enough to return to Fenway Park that he re-signed despite the fact that the Sox don’t yet have a manager in place in the wake of Alex Cora’s firing.
  • Blue Jays bullpen coach Matt Buschmann has been named as director of pitching development, the team announced.  Buschmann will work in both roles for the 2020 season.  A veteran of 11 pro seasons (including a brief stint of 4 1/3 innings with the Diamondbacks in 2016), Buschmann retired after the 2017 campaign to take on an assistant director post with the Giants before joining the Jays for the 2019 season.
  • The Phillies’ lack of starting pitching upgrades have left David Murphy of the Philadelphia Inquirer pessimistic about the club’s chances of competing in 2020.  Though the Phils landed one of the winter’s biggest free agent arms in Zack Wheeler, Murphy feels much more rotation help was necessary given how Jake Arrieta, Vince Velasquez, and Zach Eflin posted middling numbers last year, and even Aaron Nola’s solid year was a step back from an outstanding 2018 season.  The shortage of pitching especially stands out in the NL East, where the Nationals, Braves, and Mets are all deep in rotation options.

Francisco Lindor Addresses Future With Indians

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Trade rumors have swirled around Francisco Lindor all winter, as the Indians’ moves to limit their payroll over the last 15 months have led to widespread speculation that Lindor will be dealt before he reaches free agency following the 2021 season.  Edwin Encarnacion’s three-year, $60MM deal from the 2016-17 offseason still stands as the largest contract in Indians franchise history, and since Lindor could certainly command four times that amount as a free agent, there has been a lot of doubt that he will remain in Cleveland over the long-term.

Speaking to reporters (including MLB.com’s Mandy Bell and the Cleveland Plain Dealer’s Paul Hoynes) at the TribeFest fan event today, Lindor said the Indians “haven’t offered me the right thing” in regards to a multi-year extension.  Such a contract doesn’t seem to be a pressing concern for Lindor at the moment, as he is in “no rush” to pursue an extension since he is still two years away from the open market:

“Is there a right number for me right now?  I haven’t really thought about it.  I’m not there yet. I’m going to worry about what I got in front of my toes.  A lot of money sounds pretty right now.  Everything sounds pretty.  A lot of years sound pretty, too.  At the end of the day, it’s about what’s best for me, my family, and also the Indians’ organization.”

“If they don’t think I can stay here because of the money situation, then I won’t be here.  But I do want to be in Cleveland.  I love the Indians, I love their fans.  The city has grown on me a lot.  When it is the right time to sign an extension?  I don’t know when it’s the right time.  God has a plan for me and my family and I truly believe in it.  What’s going to happen is going to happen.”

In regards to the Tribe’s “money situation,” Lindor downplayed the idea that the club wasn’t able to afford him, pointing out “there’s money out there.  Our payroll was $120MM last year.  That’s money.”  That said, Lindor also acknowledged the team’s perspective on how payroll should be allocated: “The question is, is it the right time for each team…when are they going to spend the money?….Is it the right time for the Indians?  I don’t know.”

To this end, Lindor seemingly implied that while he enjoys playing for the Indians, he isn’t pleased with being part of a club that one eye on the budget rather than a sole focus on being competitive.  “Wherever I go, I want to win,” Lindor said.  “I want to bring a championship to the city of Cleveland….It has nothing to do with the money.  It has nothing to do with the years.  It has nothing to do with who I like or who I don’t like.  It has to do with championships.  The front office tries to put a team together to win, not to save money.  They’re supposed to try to put a team together to win.  I’m here to try to win.”

The Reds, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Padres, and Mets have all reportedly had interest in trading for Lindor this winter, though Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and manager Terry Francona have both stated that their team isn’t looking to deal the shortstop.  While a Lindor swap might not happen this offseason, the possibility can’t be ruled out for the trade deadline if the Indians aren’t in contention.  Of course, Cleveland traded Trevor Bauer last July even while still in contention, though the Indians had the pitching depth to make a Bauer deal more palatable, whereas there isn’t any way for the team to so easily replace Lindor’s usual All-Star level of production.

Indians Had Interest In Starling Marte

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The Indians’ offseason has largely been dominated by the specter of cutting payroll (such as the Corey Kluber trade to the Rangers or the persistent trade rumors around Francisco Lindor) rather than major acquisitions, the team’s signing of Cesar Hernandez notwithstanding.  However, it seems as though the Tribe at least considered a significant addition, as Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that “the Indians were in on” Starling Marte before the Pirates dealt the center fielder to the Diamondbacks earlier this week.

The nature of the Tribe’s offer to Pittsburgh isn’t known, though we can at least make a speculative comparison to what the Pirates received from the D’Backs — $250K in international bonus pool money, and two interesting but non-elite prospects (shortstop Liover Peguero and right-hander Brennan Malone) who are each at least two or three years away from reaching the majors.  Since the Bucs sent just $1.5MM in cash to Arizona as part of the deal, the D’Backs also took on almost all of the financial obligations for Marte, who is owed $11.5MM in 2020 and is controllable via a $12.5MM club option ($1MM buyout) for the 2021 season.

It could be that the Pirates simply preferred Peguero and Malone to whatever prospects were floated by the Tribe, and that money wasn’t a primary difference between Cleveland’s offer and Arizona’s offer.  Still, assuming the finances would’ve broken down in a similar fashion, adding $10MM for Marte’s salary would’ve elevated the Indians’ 2020 payroll to a little beyond $106.5MM, as per Roster Resource.  That still represents a notable step down from the $150MM+ payrolls the Indians had at the end of the 2017 and 2018 seasons, or even the $129.3MM year-end payroll from 2019.  Since Marte’s 2021 option is likely to be exercised, Cleveland could have still found payroll room considering that Carlos Santana and Brad Hand could both come off the books via club options of their own, Hernandez is a free agent, plus who knows what other payroll space could be carved out by future trades (such as a Lindor deal).

As Hoynes notes, the Tribe’s interest in Marte indicates that the team could still be willing to spend to upgrade its 26-man roster, whether such a move happens in the offseason or perhaps closer to the trade deadline.  Marte would have been a clear boost to Cleveland’s shaky outfield picture right now, though the Indians have enough outfielders in the mix that they might prefer to see which (if any) of those players steps up to become a reliable regular performer before looking at bringing any new players onto the roster.  Oscar Mercado currently looks like the only Tribe outfielder slated for true everyday duty, as Jake Bauers, Delino DeShields, Greg Allen, Jordan Luplow, Bradley Zimmer and (when he isn’t at DH) Franmil Reyes are all vying for regular playing time.

Minor MLB Transactions: 2/1/20

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We’ll use this post to keep track of today’s minor moves around baseball…

  • The Angels have signed right-handed pitcher Michael Kohn to a minor league deal, reports Maria Torres of the Los Angeles Times. He won’t get an invite to Major League Spring Training, but he’ll return to the organization with which he played the first six years of his professional career. He spent last year in the Diamondbacks’ minor league system, pitching mostly at Double-A. He was a strikeout machine at that level, notching 41 K’s in just 22 2/3 innings of work. He’s played in the Majors in parts of five seasons (most recently in 2015), getting into 132 games and posting a solid 3.52 career ERA. In 115 innings of big league action, he’s struck out 111 batters and walked 79.

Cubs To Sign Jeremy Jeffress

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FEBRUARY 1: The signing is now official.

JANUARY 28: The Cubs have agreed to terms with righty Jeremy Jeffress on a one-year MLB deal, per ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). It’ll pay him $850K and includes $200K in available incentives based upon appearances.

Jeffress will hope to regain his form in Chicago after falling flat last year with the Brewers. The sinkerballer was lights-out in 2018 but lost about 1.5 ticks of velocity in the ensuing campaign. He was dropped by the Milwaukee organization after throwing 52 innings of 5.02 ERA ball with 8.0 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, and a 48.4% groundball rate.

It has been a bit of a rollercoaster ride over the years for Jeffress. At his best, he has gobbled up grounders and limited the long ball and even on occasion recorded a decent number of strikeouts. The history of home run suppression (0.67 per nine for his career) is of particular interest in the era of the aerodynamic baseball. But Jeffress hasn’t always been consistent and had a worrisome DWI incident back in 2016.

For the Cubs, it’s a low-cost signing that has some relative upside. There’s really no reason to think Jeffress can replicate that ’18 outburst — his sparkling 1.29 ERA was certainly the result of good pitching, but there was some good fortune mixed in as well — but he doesn’t need to reach those heights to pay dividends. If he can regain some lost velo or learn to live without it, Jeffress could end up pitching a lot of high-leverage innings at Wrigley.

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