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Archives for February 2020

Giants, Brandon Guyer Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Giants have agreed to a minor league contract with veteran outfielder Brandon Guyer, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. The ACES client would earn $1MM upon making the big league roster, but won’t open up in MLB camp, per Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic (via Twitter).

The 2019 season marked the first time since 2013 that Guyer didn’t appear in the Majors. He might’ve eventually had that chance on a then-rebuilding White Sox roster, but the now-34-year-old Guyer opened the season in Triple-A Charlotte and spent most of the year on the injured list.

Guyer hasn’t had a full, productive season in the big leagues since 2016 and has long been something of a specialty player. The right-handed-hitting veteran has traditionally struggled against right-handed pitching but has tormented lefties with a .274/.375/.448 slash (130 wRC+) in 793 plate appearances. Guyer thrives at getting on base when holding the platoon advantage, in no small part due to his league-leading penchant for getting hit by pitches (as explored at great length by FanGraphs’ August Fagerstrom back in 2016).

Giants fans have been expecting some outfield additions since president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi said last week that deepening that mix was a priority. While this move probably isn’t as exciting as anything Giants fans might’ve hoped for, Guyer’s right-handed bat would seemingly pair well with a heavily left-handed outfield mix — Alex Dickerson, Steven Duggar and Mike Yastrzemski — if he makes the team.

Mariners Claim Jose Siri

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The Mariners have claimed outfielder Jose Siri off waivers from the Reds, tweets C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic. The Seattle organization hasn’t formally announced the move yet and will need to make a corresponding 40-man transaction to open space for Siri, who was designated for assignment last week when the Reds inked Nick Castellanos to a four-year deal.

Siri, 24, was considered to be among Cincinnati’s best farmhands just two years ago. FanGraphs, in fact, ranked him near the back end of the game’s 100 best prospects (No. 93 overall) heading into the 2018 campaign. At that point, he was a 22-year-old who was fresh off an impressive .293/.341/.530 slash with 24 homers and 46 steals in the Class-A Midwest League.

Since that time, however, Siri has turned in a pair of disappointing seasons, logging a combined on-base percentage south of .300 in 2018-19 between Class-A Advanced, Double-A and Triple-A. This past season, Siri mustered a lackluster .237/.300/.357 showing through 517 plate appearances in the minors, and he’s struggled even more heavily in the Dominican Winter League (.196/.264/.411 in 125 plate appearances).

The addition of Siri comes not long after the Mariners learned that they’ll be without right fielder Mitch Haniger early in the season due to core surgery. Haniger recently suffered a setback when rehabbing from the ruptured testicle that sidelined him for much of the 2019 season and could miss up to eight weeks of action. With Haniger sidelined for what could be much of Spring Training, Siri will join an outfield mix consisting of Mallex Smith, Kyle Lewis, Dee Gordon, Jake Fraley and Braden Bishop. Siri has a minor league option remaining, so the Mariners can keep him even if he doesn’t break camp with the club.

Seeking Microsoft Excel Expert For Paid Project

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You may recall that last month, I sought out experts on MLB salary arbitration.  My goal is to be trained on the traditional method of projecting a player’s arbitration salary.  Many qualified people wrote in offering their expertise, and I was fortunate to be able to hire two of them for my project.

While I’ve identified my arbitration teachers, I now have a better understanding of the stats I’ll need at my fingertips for each player.  Not only do I need a bunch of different stats collected from various sources, but I’ll need to create different multiyear slices of these stats.  The result will be a very robust spreadsheet, referred to as my “grid” in industry parlance.

I’ve got solid enough skills in Microsoft Excel, but I’ll need more than that to assemble the spreadsheet I’m envisioning.  I need an absolute Excel wizard.  This will be well beyond some basic VLOOKUPs.  If you’re a master in Excel and a big fan of baseball statistics, please drop me a line at mlbarbitration@gmail.com explaining your qualifications.  I’m looking for someone who can work with me to create my spreadsheet over the next few months as a paid project.  You do not need to be an expert in arbitration – I’ll explain how I want the spreadsheet to look and function.

Rays Sign Dylan Covey, John Curtiss To Minor League Deals

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The Rays have agreed to minor league contracts with right-handers Dylan Covey and John Curtiss, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link). Both pitchers will be in Major League camp as non-roster invitees this spring. Tampa Bay also re-signed fleet-footed outfielder Johnny Davis, although he’ll report directly to minor league camp.

Covey, 28, recently elected free agency in lieu of an outright assignment from the White Sox. He’s appeared in each of the past three seasons with the ChiSox, showing promise at times but ultimately posting unpalatable results. In 250 1/3 big league innings, he’s pitched to a 6.54 ERA with 6.2 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 1.62 HR/9 and a 50 percent ground-ball rate.

The Athletics drafted Covey in the third round back in 2013, and he was Chicago’s Rule 5 pick in 2016 three years later. Like many Rule 5 pick, Covey had a brutal rookie year, but he survived on the roster, allowing the Sox to keep him in following seasons. The righty was impressive early in 2018, logging a 3.45 ERA/3.54 FIP with a huge 60 percent ground-ball rate through his first eight starts. That success quickly unraveled, though, and Covey struggled through the majority of his remaining time on the South Side. The Rays will hope they can help him rediscover that early 2018 form, although Tampa Bay has enviable pitching depth as it is with Charlie Morton, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Ryan Yarbrough and Yonny Chirinos all in line to start games in 2020.

Curtiss, meanwhile, bounced from the Twins to the Angels to the Phillies on a series of waiver claims and minor league deals in 2019. The former sixth-rounder (Twins, 2014) was once a well-regarded bullpen prospect in Minnesota’s system but has yet to find success in the big leagues (13 runs in 17 1/3 innings). Curtiss was shelled in Triple-A in 2019 but was very good there in 2017-18, pitching to a combined 2.49 ERA with 94 strikeouts in 79 2/3 innings. Control has long been an issue for Curtiss, though, as even in that solid 2017-18 run in Triple-A, he issued 41 free passes (4.6 BB/9).

As for Davis, the Rays plucked him out of the Mexican League last August and rushed him to the big leagues as a September call-up/pinch-running specialist. He had a strong year in Mexico in 2019, slashing .300/.353/.392 and swiping 54 bases. That showing and his brief cameo in the Rays organization late in ’19 will earn him a look in the upper minors with the Rays in 2020, it seems.

Yankees Sign Dan Otero, David Hale

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The Yankees announced a series of minor league deals with non-roster invitations to Spring Training on Monday, including previously unreported agreements with right-handers Dan Otero and David Hale.

Otero, 35 later this month, was brilliant with the Indians from 2016-17, pitching to a combined 2.14 ERA with 6.5 K/9, 1.3 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9 and a 63 percent ground-ball rate in 130 2/3 innings of relief. However, he’s become increasingly homer-prone over the past two seasons (1.83 HR/9), and this past season’s 53.2 percent grounder rate marked roughly a 10 percent drop for the sinkerballer. Otero’s ability to avoid walks remains among the very best in baseball — eight walks in his past 88 1/3 innings — but the 89.5 mph he averaged on his sinker in 2019 was the lowest velocity of his career.

Hale, meanwhile, is a more familiar face for Yankees fans. The 32-year-old has gone through multiple stints with the Yankees over the past two seasons and threw quite well in 2019. Hale racked up 37 2/3 innings in a long relief role in 2019 and notched a tidy 3.11 ERA with a 23-to-7 K/BB ratio and an even 50 percent ground-ball rate.

Incredibly, this is the fifth minor league contract that Hale has signed with the Yankees since Jan. 2018. He originally signed a minor league pact with New York on Jan. 30 that year. Hale had his contract selected that April, landed with the Twins on a waiver claim and was released not long after. He returned to the Yankees on a second minor league deal, was again released following a DFA two weeks later, and re-signed with the Yanks the following day. Hale then re-signed with the Yankees on a minor league deal last winter and has now put pen to paper with them yet again.

Both pitchers will compete for spots in a crowded Yankees bullpen alongside fellow non-roster veterans Tyler Lyons and Luis Avilan. The top end of the Yankees’ relief corps looks to be largely set, health permitting, as Aroldis Chapman, Zack Britton, Adam Ottavino, Chad Green and Tommy Kahlne should all be locks. Others such as Jonathan Holder, Ben Heller and the out-of-options Luis Cessa will compete alongside the non-roster players in Spring Training as they hope to land a spot on the Opening Day roster as well.

Poll: Where Will Mookie Betts Play In 2020?

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The trade rumblings surrounding Mookie Betts are presumably nearing their peak. The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier reported last night that resolution on trade talks regarding him could come within the next few days. Ken Rosenthal offered a similar sentiment on MLB Network’s Hot Stove show this morning (Twitter link, with video), plainly stating that a Betts trade “is going to happen.”

At this point, the race to acquire Betts is widely reported to be between a pair of NL West rivals: the Dodgers and the Padres. The former, of course, is a perennial division champ hoping that Betts could be the piece to finally push them across the finish line in the World Series after two near-misses in three years. The latter would simply hope Betts could propel them into postseason play at all. San Diego has yet to experience a playoff game under general manager A.J. Preller, who was hired more than five years ago.

As with most high-profile trade scenarios, there are multiple layers to consider. Both the Padres and Dodgers have excellent farm systems and controllable, MLB-ready talent to pitch to new Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and his staff. Betts would push the Padres into franchise-record payroll territory but wouldn’t bring them to the luxury tax threshold. The Dodgers, on the other hand, have spent far more than this before but would be in luxury territory with Betts on board.

The financial components don’t stop there. San Diego has reportedly sought to unload part of Wil Myers’ contract (three years, $61MM remaining) on the Red Sox in their talks. Boston has been trying to push some of David Price’s remaining deal (three years, $96MM) on both clubs; USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets this morning that the Dodgers are still trying to get the Sox to take on a larger portion of Price’s contract.

The emergence of an unexpected suitor — who doesn’t love a good mystery team?! — would make things more interesting and remains possible as long as Betts is still under Red Sox control.

It’s only been 10 days since MLBTR readers weighed in on whether a Betts trade would happen at all, with nearly 69 percent of participants voting that the 2018 AL MVP would open the 2020 season in Boston. Just over a week later, there’s a decidedly different feel around the Betts situation, so let’s open this up one final time (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)…

Twins Have Interest In Taijuan Walker

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The Twins added veteran starter Jhoulys Chacin on a minor league deal over the weekend but might not be through adding experienced arms to their spring rotation mix. Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune writes that the club could yet add right-hander Taijuan Walker to the fray; Miller’s colleague, La Velle E. Neal III, also mentioned Minnesota’s interest in the righty in a previous notebook column.

Walker, 27, once rated as one of the game’s 15 best overall prospects and looked to be putting things together following a trade from Seattle to Arizona. In 2017, his age-24 campaign, Walker tossed 157 1/3 frames of 3.49 ERA ball in Arizona, averaging 8.4 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 0.97 HR/9 and a 48.9 percent ground-ball rate.

However, the former No. 43 overall draft pick (Mariners, 2010) wound up undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2018, and a sprained shoulder capsule the following May prolonged his absence while creating additional health concerns. Walker was only able to make it back to a big league mound for one inning in 2019, when he served as an opener in the Diamondbacks’ final game of the year. Arizona non-tendered him in December rather than pay a third-time arbitration salary that would’ve likely matched last year’s $5.025MM rate.

In all, Walker has totaled just 14 innings over the past two seasons thanks to that torn elbow ligament and sprained shoulder capsule, which have understandably combined to limit his earning power. Neal implied that the Twins have hoped to land Walker on a non-roster deal, though the lack of an agreement suggests that he’s perhaps holding out for a guaranteed contract.

It’s easy enough to see Walker’s appeal for the Twins, whose 2020 rotation is currently the weakest area on the club. Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi will be back to lead the staff, and Minnesota added right-hander Homer Bailey on the heels of his healthiest season since 2013. Michael Pineda, too, will return in 2020 — but not until he finishes up a reduced 60-game suspension for taking a banned substance. That punishment will keep him shelved until mid-May. Lefty Rich Hill, signed the same day as Bailey, will be out until at least June after undergoing primary repair surgery on his left elbow this winter.

The Twins currently appear likely to rely on right-hander Randy Dobnak (1.59 ERA, 23-to-5 K/BB ratio in 28 1/3 innings in 2019) and left-hander Devin Smeltzer (3.86 ERA, 38-to-12 K/BB in 49 innings) to round out their rotation early in the season. The weekend addition of Chacin gives them another option, should he look more like his 2018 self than his 2019 self this spring. Aussie southpaw Lewis Thorpe and top prospect Brusdar Graterol could also be in the mix.

Walker, though, would add an intriguing wild card to that rotation competition if the two sides are ultimately able to strike up a deal. He has five-plus year of service time under his belt, meaning there are no future arbitration years of which to gain control, but he’s looked like one of the market’s more intriguing short-term dice rolls since the day he was non-tendered two months ago.

Diamondbacks Sign Trayce Thompson To Minor-League Deal

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The Diamondbacks signed outfielder Trayce Thompson to a minor-league contract, per a tweet from their Triple-A affiliate in Reno. He will receive an invite to MLB spring training.

Thompson, now 28, compiled 589 MLB plate appearances between 2015-18. He combined for a lackluster .206/.276/.389 line (78 wRC+) over that time. Thompson has shown some power, popping 22 home runs. Unfortunately, a career 28% strikeout rate has proven too much to overcome.

He failed to crack the majors in 2019. He instead spent the entire season with Cleveland’s Triple-A affiliate. It was more of the same for the right-handed hitter, who slashed .219/.294/.482 with 24 homers but an unpalatable 36.1% strikeout rate.

He has MLB experience at all three outfield positions and logged playing time relatively equally across the grass in Columbus last season. If the out-of-options Thompson cracks the Diamondbacks’ roster with a strong spring training, he’d have to remain on the club’s active roster or be exposed to waivers.

Mookie Betts Trade Talks Could Be Nearing Resolution

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The Mookie Betts saga hasn’t yet reached a resolution. That could change shortly. The Red Sox may make a decision on Betts “within the next few days,” reports Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Boston has continued to discuss “multiple” trade scenarios with both the Dodgers and Padres. Those talks have now reached “a relatively advanced stage,” Speier reports. Earlier this week, Speier categorized the Betts sweepstakes as “a two-team race” between Los Angeles and San Diego. There’s no indication anyone beyond the two NL West rivals is still involved.

That’s not to say a Betts trade imminently coming to fruition is a guarantee. The Red Sox haven’t asked either L.A. or San Diego for “a last and best offer,” a source from one of the rival clubs told Speier. That suggests there remains some possibility of talks fizzling out or going in an unexpected direction; at the very least, it doesn’t seem Boston plans to set a firm deadline on a Betts trade, at least not immediately.

Reading between the lines, though, it feels like a Betts trade is now more likely than ever. Speier reported earlier in the week it was “likelier than not” the superstar would wind up on the move, and today’s news only strengthens that notion. If a deal does get across the finish line, what could the Red Sox expect in return for the former AL MVP?

Any deal with the Padres would need to include Wil Myers to help offset payroll, Speier reiterates. (Betts will make $27MM in 2020 in the final season before he reaches free agency). As Speier observes, San Diego’s package of young talent would therefore have to top that of the Dodgers to compensate for the inclusion of some of Myers’ contract. The 29-year-old is due $61MM over the next three seasons. Coming off a season in which he hit just .239/.321/.418, Myers certainly wouldn’t approach that figure if he were on the open market now. San Diego would pay down some of Myers’ deal in the event of a trade, Speier notes; even still, the Red Sox would surely demand more valuable young talent with Myers included than they otherwise would have.

Among that young talent would figure to be an MLB-ready outfielder and starting pitcher, as well as some prospect help. San Diego has shown a willingness to discuss outfielders Manuel Margot (a former Red Sox prospect) and Josh Naylor, Speier reports, although any outfielders except Trent Grisham and Tommy Pham could be on the table. Starting pitchers Cal Quantrill and Joey Lucchesi continue to garner some consideration, while any prospect package would likely be led by catcher Luis Campusano (Baseball America’s #79 overall prospect), Speier adds. Not all five players would be involved in a Betts trade, of course, and there are no doubt others who have come up in talks. The names under discussion give some early indication of what to expect if a Betts deal involving San Diego is completed, though.

From the Dodgers’ perspective, meanwhile, Alex Verdugo could be on the table, Speier reports. The 23-year-old former top prospect hit .294/.342/.475 (114 wRC+) in 377 plate appearances last season and comes with five years of team control, making him an eminently valuable trade piece. Other scenarios with the Dodgers still seem to be up in the air; the parties continue to discuss a package deal involving David Price and his three-year, $96MM contract, Speier notes, as well as deals that would send Betts alone to L.A.

Notably, the Athletic’s Peter Gammons noted this afternoon (via Twitter) that the Dodgers appear to be the frontrunner, with three sources characterizing Betts to L.A. as “inevitable.” Verdugo could indeed be on the table in such a scenario, Gammons hears; he further adds middle infield prospect Jeter Downs and pitcher Caleb Ferguson as names to monitor.

With spring training approaching, one of this offseason’s greatest dramas appears to be nearing its conclusion. Wherever Betts plays next season, he figures to again offer outstanding production. The 27-year-old has a .299/.389/.535 slash (140 wRC+) since the start of 2017. With elite baserunning and defense factored in, only Mike Trout has bested Mookie’s 22.4 fWAR over that time.

MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The Diamondbacks?

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It has been an eventful offseason, perhaps unexpectedly, in Arizona. The club stayed on the periphery of the NL Wild Card race much of last season, but they never had especially strong postseason odds. Ultimately, they did fall short, finishing four games back of the Brewers for the final playoff spot. They were certainly not a bad team, going 85-77, but they were hardly dominant.

Entering the offseason, the club looked positioned to be relatively active. They had some payroll flexibility already, and they freed up more room on the books by non-tendering Taijuan Walker and Steven Souza, Jr. Nevertheless, it came as a bit of a surprise to see the Snakes act as aggressively as they have this winter.

That activity started in mid-December, when they brought in Madison Bumgarner from the division-rival Giants on a backloaded five-year, $85MM contract. Shortly thereafter came the signing of Kole Calhoun on a two-year, $16MM deal (with a club option for a third year). Calhoun, the Angels’ decision to decline his team option for 2020 notwithstanding, had a productive bounceback effort in 2019, putting up a .232/.325/.467 slash (108 wRC+) with his customary solid defense. He’ll presumably line up alongside the recently-extended David Peralta as the Snakes’ top two corner outfielders.

Between Calhoun and Peralta will be a Marte, but not the one who manned center most often in the desert last offseason. Starling Marté was brought aboard in a trade with Pittsburgh this week, a move MLBTR readers generally approved of. That frees up star Ketel Marte to move back to second base, where the club got mediocre production last season and faced the free agent departure of Wilmer Flores.

Beyond Ketel Marte, there’s not a true star on the roster, but there are very few obvious weaknesses, either. Carson Kelly, Christian Walker, Eduardo Escobar, and Nick Ahmed round out the projected lineup. Bumgarner and Robbie Ray figure to front a rotation hoping for full seasons from midseason trade acquisition Zac Gallen and the returning Luke Weaver.

There’s probably not many more noteworthy moves coming this offseason. Per Roster Resource, the Starling Marté trade brought the club to an estimated $123MM payroll. That’s generally in line with their expenditures in recent seasons. Furthermore, GM Mike Hazen threw cold water on the idea of blowing past prior spending levels in December.

So, if this is indeed the team Arizona will head into the season with, just how good are they? Can they threaten the perennial powerhouse Dodgers in the NL West? Have they done enough to at least position themselves as a Wild Card favorite?

(poll link for app users)

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