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Archives for February 2020

Kenta Maeda Asked Out Of Los Angeles

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As if there weren’t enough drama surrounding the Dodgers’ three-way deal for Mookie Betts, departed Dodger Kenta Maeda revealed on his YouTube channel that he had requested a trade out of Los Angeles, per Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times.

Neither the trade nor the revelation of Maeda’s request are particularly shocking as Maeda had made clear in the past his desire to be in the rotation. With Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler providing one of the better 1-2 punches in the league, the Dodgers preferred using Maeda as a roving power arm, especially come playoff time. The Dodgers used Maeda as a starter in 2016’s playoffs, but he didn’t make it out of the fifth inning in any of his three playoff starts. In the three postseasons hence, the Dodgers made Maeda into a relief weapon and saw him post a 1.64 ERA in 22 innings in the playoffs from 2017 to 2019.

While 2019’s postseason run was shorter than expected, Maeda was dominant in the NLDS agains the Nationals. He appeared in four of the five games, surrendering just one hit and no walks to seven strikeouts.

The Dodgers had begun to utilize their postseason strategy with Maeda more during the regular season. Now with the Twins, Maeda should be back in the rotation on a full-time basis as he prefers. Maeda has a personal goal of reaching 200 career wins, per Hernandez, which would mean accruing 14 wins per season for the next for years. That’s a tall order for anyone. Only ten pitchers posted so many wins over the past four years. That said, the Twins offense should help in providing an environment conducive to win collection.

In his first four seasons stateside, Maeda has gone 47-35 with a 3.87 ERA/3.71 FIP, and that’s with starting approximately 26 games per season. If he stays healthy, Maeda could potentially garner another 4 to 6 starts per season, putting him in range to hit his target. While Wins aren’t the tell-all stat of years past, it’s safe to assume the relationship between Maeda and Minnesota will have gone quite well if he does indeed achieve the 200-win mark.

Quick Hits: Peralta, Brewers, Mariners, Wallace

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Happy birthday to Diamondbacks right-hander Stefan Crichton, who turns seven years…er, make that 28 years old on this Leap Day.  As you might expect, there haven’t been too many big leaguers born on February 29, though the date has produced a pair of very notable figures from baseball history.  Pepper Martin (born in 1904) was a four-time All-Star who won two World Series titles as a member of the Cardinals’ legendary Gashouse Gang teams of the 1930’s.  While the World Series MVP Award wasn’t instituted until 1955, it’s safe to consider Martin a retroactive winner for his performance in the 1931 Fall Classic, as he posted a 1.330 OPS over 26 plate appearances to lead St. Louis to victory.

Al Rosen (born in 1924) was also a four-time All-Star, as well as the American League’s MVP in 1953.  Rosen hit .285/.384/.495 over ten outstanding seasons with the Indians in a career cut short by injuries, though he got to the Show in time to earn a ring with the 1948 Tribe, the last Cleveland team to win a World Series.  After his playing career was over, Rosen served as the president/CEO of the Yankees (winning another Series in 1978), then president/general manager of the Astros (1980-85) and Giants (1985-92).

More from around baseball as we hit the last February 29 until 2024…

  • Freddy Peralta’s representatives “weren’t too happy” with the right-hander’s decision to sign a five-year extension with the Brewers, Peralta told Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and other reporters.  Peralta is guaranteed $15.5MM over the next five seasons, plus as much as $14.5MM more if club options for 2025 and 2026 are both exercised.  The contract gives the Brewers a lot of control over a pitcher who only has slightly more than one year of service time to his name, and Peralta said his agents at Rep 1 Baseball “didn’t really want to take it.  At the end of the day, I know they wanted to wait a little longer.”  Still, Peralta was focused on locking in a life-changing amount of money, calling the contract “something I’ve been working for my whole life….It was a chance to help my family, to help myself, and be in a position where I can play relaxed.  My family can be a little more happy and relaxed.  It definitely changes my mind going into every season, knowing that I have a little bit of security.”
  • While Peralta could be leaving a lot of potential money on the table if he blossoms into a reliable pitcher, taking the extension could ultimately prove to be a wise choice considering that Peralta isn’t yet proven at the big league level.  These types of early-career extensions involve “a risk tolerance for both sides,” Brewers GM David Stearns told Haudricourt and company, and “in this case, there was a clear desire from the player and a clear desire from the club” to get a deal done.  Rather than specify a a specific starting or relieving job for Peralta, Stearns indicated “we think he could potentially have success in both roles, and as the game continues to evolve, as the use of pitching continues to evolve, there are probably going to be a whole bunch of pitchers who are asked to do both.  And it wouldn’t shock me if Freddy is one of those guys.“
  • The Mariners won’t use a set closer this season “unless somebody jumps up and grabs the position,” manager Scott Servais told reporters (including Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times).  Barring a breakout performance from one of the many save candidates, the M’s will instead rotate between the likes of Yoshihisa Hirano, Carl Edwards Jr., Matt Magill, Dan Altavilla, Sam Tuivailala, and perhaps others in ninth-inning situations.
  • Special assistant Dave Wallace and the Braves have “mutually agreed to part ways” after three seasons, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets.  This was Wallace’s second stint in Atlanta’s organization, after working as a minor league pitching coordinator from 2010-13.  The 72-year-old Wallace is known for his many years as a pitching coach with five different teams, most recently working with Orioles pitchers from 2014-16.

NL West Notes: Pederson, Leake, Rockies

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Joc Pederson has been sidelined for the last week due to a right hip injury, though the Dodgers outfielder made some “progress” today, manager Dave Roberts told MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick and other reporters.  Pederson played catch today and took outdoor batting practice, swinging at about 75 percent effort.  The team is being cautious with Pederson’s recovery, as Roberts said that they’ll check on the outfielder’s condition tomorrow before deciding on any next step.  Pederson has yet to appear in a Spring Training game, and it isn’t yet known if this setback could potentially impact Pederson’s availability for the Opening Day roster.

Some rumblings from around the NL West…

  • More than two weeks after suffering a fracture in his non-throwing wrist, Mike Leake hasn’t yet been cleared for game action, leading Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo to tell reporters (including Richard Morin of the Arizona Republic) that “it’s a possibility” Leake could miss some time at the start of the season.  “His clock hasn’t started yet, and we know that. He hasn’t got on a mound yet but he’s working hard to make that happen as soon as possible,” Lovullo said.  Any potential injured list wouldn’t be a lengthy one, yet it would keep Leake from at least two starts in Arizona’s rotation.  With less than a month until the Diamondbacks’ first game, Lovullo said that Leake is “approaching” the “danger zone” of not having enough preparation time to fully ramp up prior to Opening Day.
  • “I don’t think options trump our best team,” Rockies manager Bud Black said, though the Denver Post’s Kyle Newman points out that Colorado face some out-of-options decisions within their group of rotation candidates.  Antonio Senzatela and Jeff Hoffman are both out of options, so they could be the most obvious candidates for the two open starting jobs if roster considerations are a big factor in the Rockies’ thinking, though Newman feels that right-handers Chi Chi Gonzalez and Peter Lambert “are near the top of the heap” for the fifth starter role.  With Senzatela favored to land the fourth starting job, that could leave Hoffman as a potential odd man out.
  • Gonzalez is not as out of options candidate, as Newman writes that the righty has a fourth option remaining rather than the usual three.  It isn’t uncommon for players to be granted a fourth option after missing a lot of time on the injured list, and Gonzalez would certainly fit that description, as he missed all of the 2017 and 2018 seasons due to a UCL tear that required Tommy John surgery.  After signing a minor league deal with Colorado last offseason, Gonzalez returned to the mound and tossed 63 innings of 5.29 ERA ball for the Rockies in 2019, also posting a 1.39 K/BB rate and 6.6 K/9.

Collin McHugh Cleared To Begin Throwing

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10:06PM: The Blue Jays are one of the teams with some interest in McHugh, as TSN’s Scott Mitchell (Twitter link) reports that the right-hander “has been discussed internally” within Toronto’s front office.

11:03AM: Free-agent righty Collin McHugh has recently been cleared to begin a throwing program after undergoing a (non-surgical) tenex procedure on his right elbow, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets. A wide range of clubs have recently checked in on his status.

The latest update on McHugh — and really the first of the offseason — indicates that he’s a ways behind pitchers who are currently in camp, so he’s not likely to be plugged into a team’s pitching staff from the outset of the season. McHugh missed about a third of the 2019 season due to ongoing discomfort in his right elbow and didn’t look like himself when he was healthy enough to take the mound. In 74 2/3 innings of work, he was hammered for a 4.70 ERA and a 4.43 FIP with 9.9 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 1.45 HR/9 and a 38 percent grounder rate. The 32-year-old’s average fastball sat at 92.1 mph in 2018 but dipped to 90.8 mph in 2019. His swinging-strike rate, opponents’ exit velocity and opponents’ hard-hit rate all went in the wrong direction.

That said, McHugh was lights out in a bullpen setting in 2018, spinning a pristine 1.99 ERA through 72 1/3 innings with averages of 11.7 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and 0.75 HR/9. And from 2014-17, McHugh was a quality rotation piece in Houston: 606 1/3 innings of 3.70 ERA (3.60 FIP) with 8.4 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9. He was one of the first spin-rate darlings in MLB, as the huge spin on his curve is reportedly what prompted the ’Stros to pluck him out of the Rockies organization via a 2013 waiver claim.

It’d be easy to make the case for how McHugh could help virtually any club in baseball. The price tag on him shouldn’t be too high at this point — if he requires a big league deal at all — so it’ll be more a question of where McHugh feels comfortable and feels he’s presented with the best opportunity. That could mean signing on with a rebuilding club that’ll give him rotation innings or suiting up for a win-now club with fewer innings to offer but greater promise of a return to the postseason. Those preferences will be for McHugh and agent Mike Moye to sort out, but interest in the right-hander should be robust now that he’s able to get on a throwing program and give prospective new teams a clearer timeline for his return.

How Much Could Yoan Moncada Command In An Extension?

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There have been some rumblings of possible extension talks between the White Sox and young star Yoan Moncada. He didn’t validate the reports but did say he’d be interested in a long-term stay.

This all tracks on paper. The White Sox have long been one of the game’s most aggressive teams when it comes to early-career extensions. Long before recently-inked deals with Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, and Aaron Bummer, the team reached agreements with Chris Sale and Adam Eaton that paid huge dividends.

And Moncada? He’s still just 24 years of age and is one season shy of arbitration. The switch-hitting infielder just turned in a monster 2019 campaign, launching 25 long balls and slashing .315/.367/.548 over 559 plate appearances. He relied upon a .406 BABIP to get there, but that reflected Moncada’s tantalizing combination of pop (97th percentile exit velocity) and wheels (72nd percentile sprint speed).

It’d probably be wise to anticipate some regression, but there’s little denying the validity of the breakout. Moncada just plain stings the baseball and has now proven he can deliver that consistently against big-league pitching. He will probably always swing and miss more than you’d prefer, but he drove down his strikeout rate from about one-third to a much-more-palatable 27.5%. Moncada doesn’t attempt a ton of steals but still clearly grades as a positive on the bases. Metrics have not been consistent on his glovework as he has moved between second and third base, but it seems clear that the tools are there for an average or above-average fielder.

Moncada has always had a thrilling skillset. Now he has shown he knows how to use it against the best pitchers in the game. He’s not yet a top-shelf superstar, but he’s a bona fide franchise building block who could easily become one of the faces of the game.

So … what’s his future worth?

This is a question often faced by teams contemplating how best to capitalize on the presence of high-grade young talent. Worst case, the White Sox will enjoy the rights to control Moncada for four more seasons — beginning with a league-minimum+ 2020 salary with his salary increasing thereafter through the arbitration process. If he sinks, the obligations will go down or even go away if the team decides to cut ties. If he rises, the Sox will pay more but will still enjoy a discount. Should Moncada continue to star but end up missing time due to injury, the club will have to weather his absence but could still recoup some value through reduced future costs.

That’s just how the (collectively bargained) arbitration system works. Players bear quite a lot of risk and their earning upside is tempered, which in many cases provides leverage to teams. Want to capitalize on your talent and early-career production to ensure you’ll earn tens of millions of dollars? Better sign an extension.

This is where things get interesting in the case of Moncada. Only a few players near arbitration eligibility while already sitting on a huge pile of cash. Even the very top draft picks don’t earn eight-figure bonuses. And with international spending caps now in place, young players from abroad no longer command the kinds of huge bonuses that … well, the kind that Moncada himself received back in 2015 when he inked a $31MM deal with the Red Sox (and that actually cost the team twice that amount due to penalties).

Aha. Moncada has already earned quite a lot of money. And he’s now only a season from turning that spigot back on through arbitration. There’s still risk for him. Arbitration places a heavy reliance upon a player’s platform season, so it’s still possible Moncada won’t earn all that much in 2021. And who knows just how things could play out from there. But unlike virtually all of the other players that find themselves in his position at this stage of their careers — even the few that have something like his resume — Moncada already has made one great haul of cash. That removes a major bit of leverage for the White Sox.

This matters more than you might think at first glance. How else do you explain the fact that (as I explained in writing about it at the time) Aaron Nola gave up so much career earnings upside to lock in a $45MM guarantee? (He even had leverage as a former seventh overall pick who had already reached arbitration.) Those that lack substantial bargaining power can go for shockingly cheap prices, as the Braves proved last year when they squeezed excellent young infielder Ozzie Albies. (Yep, I’m kicking a hornet’s nest, but we don’t need to re-litigate this one here.)

Odds are, Moncada won’t be taken to the cleaners. But where might his price tag land?

The White Sox have already charted somewhat new ground with their exceedingly early, reasonably robust promises to Jimenez ($43MM guarantee) and Robert ($50MM). So, they aren’t afraid of being somewhat bold. Moncada obviously has much better bargaining power than did his teammates, making those payouts an easy floor. As for a ceiling … well, it’d be tough to argue that Moncada ought to top Mike Trout’s $144MM deal. That original Trout extension still stands as the highest-ever contract for a non-Super Two player with two or more years of MLB service.

In between those marks, you have nearly $100MM of conceivable negotiating space. Clearly, they’re of limited value as comps, though it’s still useful to start with those kinds of limits. Finding a place in between can be challenging. Other 2+ service-class players have approached that nine figure mark. Carlos Gonzalez was promised $80MM by the Rockies; Hanley Ramirez took a $70MM guarantee from the Marlins. Those are stale comparables, though. In this case, though, there is at least one clear recent market marker that would surely loom large.

This time last year, the Astros locked in Alex Bregman with a $100MM guarantee. The deal paid him for all of his arbitration eligibility and added two seasons of control over would-be free agent campaigns. The Houston organization wasn’t able to add any additional control via options, which is reflective of Bregman’s excellence.

Moncada’s track record falls shy of Bregman’s at the time of the latter’s signing, so you might think the former would be valued at a somewhat lower rate. But we’ve also just seen a big crop of free agent contracts revive player expectations. (Bregman’s deal came on the heels a weak open market.) And Moncada’s aforementioned bonus earnings could help him hold out for that kind of money (if not even more).

All things considered, the Bregman contract seems like a solid target for Moncada’s reps. Whether or Should the White Sox wish to gain the rights to one or more options, they’ll likely have to promise more for the guaranteed seasons.

Latest Notes On Angels Pitching Staff

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Uncertainty surrounding starting pitching is nothing new for the Angels … but it surely isn’t welcome. The still-unknown outlook for Griffin Canning is weighing on the team at the moment. That’s the backdrop for several of the latest notes regarding the Los Angeles ballclub …

  • GM Billy Eppler says he doesn’t feel any added need to acquire a new starter — at least not yet — as Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register tweets. That may in part speak to ongoing hope that Canning’s elbow woes won’t ultimately represent a major problem. But it also reflects the simple fact that, as Eppler notes, it just isn’t the best time of year to go out looking for a new arm. The open market’s best options are already taken and teams that have depth on hand are loathe to part with it at this juncture. A patient approach therefore makes sense, as the Halos’ precise level of need isn’t yet known and some amount of pitching supply is likely to free up later in Spring Training.
  • The Angels will build up JC Ramirez as a starter in camp, manager Joe Maddon told reporters including Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic (Twitter link). As Ardaya notes, that could put the righty in the running for some sort of a flexible swingman function throughout the season. Ramirez just re-joined the Halos after reportedly showing a bit of a velocity renaissance in winter ball. If he can get back to something approaching the solid form he showed in 2016 and 2017, he’d be an awfully useful part of the Angels’ pitching staff.
  • There’s better news in the bullpen, where key righty Keynan Middleton seems to be showing well. As Fletcher tweets, Middleton was pumping 96-97 mph heat in his scoreless outing today. That’s a good sign given what we saw of him late last season, when he had only just returned from Tommy John surgery. While he allowed only a single earned run in 7 2/3 innings late in 2019, Middleton was clearly not in top form. He displayed a loss of over two mph on his average fastball and dished out seven walks to go with six strikeouts.

Christopher Ilitch On Tigers’ Rebuilding Efforts

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Tigers owner Christopher Ilitch spoke confidently about his organization’s rebuilding efforts, Chris McCosky of the Detroit News writes. He also explained the pace of an increasingly agonizing process.

Detroit fans won’t need or want to hear the gory details, but it ain’t pretty. The club lost 98 games in consecutive seasons leading up to last year’s putrid 47-114 showing. It’s hard to watch.

Then again, there’s an argument to be made that, if you’re going to dive, you really ought to dive hard. With another first-overall draft pick to work with, the Tigers have now afforded themselves every possible chance to load up on young talent. GM Al Avila sees big things to come from the club’s rotation prospects, in particular, as he told MLB Network Radio today (Twitter link).

Ilitch wants fans to know that he’s suffering along with them and shares their drive to win. He says he’s “very competitive” and assures that “the fire is burning inside.” And Ilitch made clear he’s very pleased with the “trajectory” of the rebuilding effort, even if the loss tallies have mounted at the MLB level.

Obviously, the Tigers aren’t ready to mount a spirited return to the ranks of relevance just yet. But once they are? Ilitch may not be promising to spend at the top of the market the way his father did, but he made clear he expects to open the pocketbook.

“When I feel the time is right, Al is going to have the resources to go out and sign the free agents he needs to add around our home-grown base and core of talent,” says Ilitch. “That day will come and we’ll be ready for it. He will have the resources to do that.”

That’s where the catch comes in for anxious Tigers supporters. Ilitch understandably can’t yet say when the revival will begin in earnest.

“I am a competitive person but I am also an exceptionally disciplined person,” he says. While there’s a desire to win “as fast as possible,” Ilitch is presently focused on “establishing the foundation” and “building this the right way.”

The hope is obviously that of just about every other team in baseball: a sustainable winner. Citing his experiences with the Tigers and NHL Red Wings, Ilitch says he’s confident in delivering on that goal: “Be patient, be disciplined and we’re going to get there.”

Andrew McCutchen To Open Season On Injured List

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Phillies outfielder Andrew McCutchen will open the 2020 campaign on the injured list, manager Joe Girardi told reporters including Matt Gelb of The Athletic (via Twitter). McCutchen has been working back to health from a torn ACL.

This is certainly not the outcome the Phils hoped for. But there’s no indication that there’s cause for particular concern, either. McCutchen is obviously being handled with some care given that he’s returning from such a significant injury.

The timeline will surely be dictated by the progress Cutch is able to make over the coming weeks. But Girardi says the expectation is that the long-time star will be ready to join the club at some point in April, so the team obviously doesn’t anticipate an especially lengthy absence.

With McCutchen sidelined, the Phillies will presumably turn over additional opportunities to a rotating cast of others. Veteran Jay Bruce seems likely to see most of the action against righties, with switch-hitter Roman Quinn and right-handed-hitting utilityman Josh Harrison among the leading candidates to share time.

The additional roster spot increases the chances for all of the club’s many non-roster invitees. If Harrison makes the club and is slated for outfield duties, then there’ll be a bigger opening for infielder challengers such as Neil Walker, Logan Forsythe, T.J. Rivera, Phil Gosselin, and Ronald Torreyes. Or the team could help fill in for Cutch by turning to a right-handed-hitting outfielder such as Matt Szczur or Mikie Mahtook. There’s also added space available for left-handed hitters in camp such as Nick Williams, Kyle Garlick, and Nick Martini.

Brent Honeywell Returns To Mound

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In a key moment for the Rays and righty Brent Honeywell, the prized youngster resumed throwing from the mound today, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. He remains a long ways away from competitive action but now can begin his rehab in earnest.

Long a lauded talent, Honeywell has been rehabbing for about two years now. He was sidelined by a brutal string of health problems in his elbow, beginning with Tommy John surgery and most recently featuring a fracture.

Honeywell’s timeline is still unclear, but Topkin provides some parameters. In the best case scenario, Honeywell might be ready to join a Rays affiliate at some point in May. Whether and when he could end up on the MLB map is obviously depend upon quite a few preliminary factors.

Honeywell seemed close to big league readiness when last he was seen in game action. In 2017, he worked to a 3.49 ERA with 11.3 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9 over 136 2/3 innings in the upper minors.

The future still remains bright as Honeywell closes in on his 25th birthday — presuming, at least, that he can finally get back to competitive pitching. Baseball America and MLB.com have ranked him among the game’s hundred best prospects in each of the past five years, even as the health concerns have mounted.

Honeywell knows he has a lot of work left, of course, having gone through this process before. But he called the return to the mound “a big, big leap mentally wise” and says he “was real happy with it.” Indeed, the former second rounder even indicated that he feels better and more confident now than he did at any point during his original comeback effort.

Who Else Could The Red Sox Target In Trades?

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When Wil Myers’ name surfaced in trade rumblings surrounding the Padres, Red Sox and Mookie Betts, it seemed like a fairly straightforward thought process. The Padres wanted to acquire a star (Betts), had been seeking to jettison some of Myers’ contract and didn’t want to pay both Myers’ $20MM salary and Betts’ $27MM salary. But when the Myers-to-Red Sox rumors reemerged even after Betts had been traded to the Dodgers, that was more surprising. Eventually, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported that the Sox’ aim in those talks was to use some of their newfound payroll space and luxury tax breathing room to effectively purchase some young pitching from the Padres. The basic premise: take on half of Myers’ contract and also acquire a pitcher such as Cal Quantrill to immediately plug into the mix at the MLB level. However, per Speier, there’s not much optimism at the moment that such a deal will come together.

But does that mean the Red Sox should abandon the strategy entirely? Well, why would they? There are dozens of undesirable contracts throughout MLB, and many clubs on the hook for those deals have pitching talent with which they could conceivably part.

However, it’s not as simple as just picking out a big-time contract and saying, “Let’s dump this on the Red Sox along with [Player X]!” Myers’ contract was something of an ideal fit for the Sox. The Padres aggressively backloaded his six-year, $83MM deal to the point that Myers earned only $7MM in salaries from 2017-19 (in addition to a weighty $15MM signing bonus). That’s notable for the Red Sox because they’re still “only” about $12-13MM shy of the luxury barrier. Taking on a bad contract with a $20MM+ annual salary over its full term — the relevant data point from a competitive balance tax perspective — would put them right back into the tax territory that ownership insisted on escaping erm, was … happy to escape as an ancillary benefit of building a competitive window … or however they choose to try to spin it.

Myers came with a $13.8MM luxury hit — and the cash the Padres would’ve included in the deal (a reported $30MM or so) would’ve essentially dropped Boston’s luxury obligation to $3.8MM. That’s an ideal balance of flexing the club’s deep pockets without running the risk of even approaching the luxury barrier. It’s easy to suggest Albert Pujols ($24MM AAV), Justin Upton ($23MM), Jason Heyward ($23MM), Chris Davis ($23MM), Matt Carpenter ($18.5MM) and plenty of others as a plausible fit, but Myers presented Boston with the rare opportunity to absorb half of a player’s remaining contract (and more than 36 percent of the total value) while only increasing their luxury payroll by about 1.9 percent. That’s not going to be the case with such high-AAV players.

Arrangements like the Myers deal are tough to find. Myers may well have been the single best target for this prospect-purchasing gambit — but he’s not the only one. Let’s take a speculative look at who else the Red Sox could inquire on in an effort to pursue a similar template but with a different trade focal point:

Rougned Odor, Rangers, 2B (three years, $36MM remaining on six-year, $49.5MM deal)

Odor’s contract only comes with an $8.25MM luxury hit in the first place, which the Red Sox could fit into their current budget even if Texas doesn’t include any cash. Add in even a few million dollars from the Rangers, and the Sox would be well shy of running into the threshold. To say the Odor extension hasn’t worked out for the Rangers would be putting things mildly; he’s hit .219/.285/.419 since putting pen to paper three years ago, and the bulk of the guarantee is yet to be paid out

The Rangers aren’t really maxed out in terms of payroll, but they’re also looking at playing one of the game’s top second base prospects in center field — surely in part due to Odor’s presence on the roster. Texas also added three starters with multiple years of control this winter (Corey Kluber, Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles), making it easier to absorb the blow of trading a big-league-ready arm. Maybe they wouldn’t be keen on using Kolby Allard (or someone similar) to rid themselves of the Odor contract, but if you’re the Red Sox, that’s an avenue to explore. It’s not like second base is a position of great certainty in Boston at the moment, anyhow.

Kyle Seager, Mariners, 3B (two years, $37MM remaining on seven-year, $100MM deal*)

The asterisk next to Odor’s name is necessitated by his contract’s “poison pill” — i.e. a $15MM club option that turns into a player option in the event of a trade. He’s at two years and $37MM only while donning a Mariners jersey; the moment he’s traded, that effectively becomes three years and $52MM. That wrinkle wouldn’t immediately impact his luxury tax hit though (and only minimally impacts it if/when he does trigger the option, as the current mark is $14.29MM).

The Red Sox are set at third base with Rafael Devers, but this type of trade isn’t really about positional need (and Seager could perhaps work at second base anyhow). The Mariners’ rebuild/”reimagining”/whatever they prefer to call it is nearing the point where GM Jerry Dipoto is going to want to supplement his emerging core with free agent acquisitions. Dropping a notable portion of the $19MM owed to Seager in 2020 and, perhaps more importantly, the $18MM owed to him in 2021 will aid in that effort.

Dee Gordon, Mariners, 2B/OF (one year, $14.5MM remaining on five-year, $50MM deal)

Same concept as Seager but with slightly different details. Gordon is a man without a position in Seattle and a free agent at season’s end. Gordon’s deal comes with a $10MM luxury hit that the Sox could shoehorn into their ledger without going over the barrier, but they’d have minimal breathing room. Gordon could step in as the primary second baseman with Dustin Pedroia on the shelf, pushing Jose Peraza to a more familiar utility role. And the Mariners would surely love to use that roster spot to get a look at a younger player while saving $14MM to spend on supplementing their core.

Randal Grichuk, Blue Jays, OF (four years, $43MM remaining on five-year, $52MM deal)

It’s hard not to wonder if the Jays would like a mulligan on last spring’s extension after Grichuk slashed .232/.280/.457 in 2019, effectively playing at replacement level. Then again, the Grichuk deal was a head-scratching move for most onlookers (myself included), as he didn’t appear to be a clear extension candidate. That 2019 slash looks awfully similar to Grichuk’s combined production from 2016-18 (.241/.292/.485), so perhaps the Jays are content with what he’s bringing to the table… but $43MM over the next four seasons nonetheless feels quite steep.

If the Jays are indeed looking for a way to back out of the deal, the organization is teeming with usable but unspectacular arms in the upper minors as it awaits the rise of higher-end prospects. The Sox aren’t getting Nate Pearson or anyone close to that caliber out of this deal, but paying a good chunk Grichuk’s deal in an effort to acquire a controllable fourth/fifth starter would be plenty defensible.

Ian Desmond, Rockies, INF/OF (two years, $26MM remaining on five-year, $70MM deal)

The Desmond deal has been a bust for the Rockies, who no longer even have a clear place to play one of their most highly compensated players. Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl, Raimel Tapia and Sam Hilliard are all more deserving of looks in the outfield. Garrett Hampson, Brendan Rodgers and Ryan McMahon are in the mix at second base. McMahon could also play first, where the Rockies have another underperforming veteran in Daniel Murphy (though he’s only signed through 2020).

Colorado owner Dick Monfort opened the season by declaring a lack of payroll flexibility (and, after a winter of inactivity, bizarrely proclaimed that the same Rockies club that lost 91 games in 2019 would win 94 games in 2020). The Rockies aren’t exactly teeming with high-end pitching talent — hence the 91 losses in 2019 — but they have seven or eight starters on the 40-man roster and in Triple-A behind German Marquez, Jon Gray and Kyle Freeland. This type of trade doesn’t really feel like Colorado’s style — in general, the Rockies aren’t highly active on the trade market — but if the Sox are interested in one of those back-of-the-rotation arms, it’s not hard to see the framework of a speculative deal.

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As this exercise shows, it’s not exactly easy to structure a deal on this sort of premise — in large part because there just aren’t that many suitable contracts. And few clubs have the abundance of upper-level talent (with associated 40-man roster pressures) of the Padres. Still, the Red Sox surely will keep exploring avenues to put their wallet to work while still ducking under the luxury line.

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