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Archives for February 2020

Latest On Jed Lowrie

By Connor Byrne | February 19, 2020 at 1:30am CDT

The first season of the union between the Mets and infielder Jed Lowrie couldn’t have gone much worse. Signed to a two-year, $20MM contract after back-to-back terrific seasons with the Athletics, Lowrie appeared in just nine games in 2019 while battling multiple leg injuries. There’s at least some that hope he’ll be able to contribute in the second season of his deal, though.

Lowrie’s wearing a leg brace at the outset of spring training, but he’s facing “no limitation” and “is full go in practice,” according to manager Luis Rojas (via Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News). However, there still isn’t a timeline for when he’ll be able to participate in regular-season games.

Even if Lowrie does wind up healthy enough to take the field for a sizable portion of 2020, it’s unclear how much playing time he’ll receive. The switch-hitting 35-year-old has spent most of his career in the middle infield, but the Mets already have second baseman Robinson Cano and shortstop Amed Rosario as up-the-middle starters. Likewise, Lowrie won’t get much of any time at first base because of the presence of Pete Alonso. He does have over 1,000 innings of major league experience at third, but the Mets have Jeff McNeil there, and they’re not giving up on J.D. Davis as an option at the hot corner.

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New York Mets Jed Lowrie

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This Date In Transactions History: Hoz To Pads

By Connor Byrne | February 19, 2020 at 1:02am CDT

Two years ago today, a struggling San Diego club doled out what was then the largest contract in franchise history. The Padres added free-agent first baseman Eric Hosmer on an eight-year, $144MM deal, no doubt hoping he’d help legitimize a team that was then stuck in an 11-year playoff drought. That skid has continued since the Padres picked up Hosmer, however.

The Royals made Hosmer the third overall pick in 2008, and he remained among the game’s most prized prospects during his time in their farm system. Hosmer further upped his stock with a quality rookie season in the majors in 2011, the beginning of an up-and-down career. He wound up turning in two sub-replacement-level seasons as a Royal, yet the highs were high when they came. Hosmer took home four Gold Gloves in KC, earned an All-Star nod in 2016 and was an important part of the franchise’s first World Series-winning season (2015) since 1985.

The Royals’ descent in the standings began in 2016, the year after their title-winning campaign, as Hosmer was again closer to replacement level than truly valuable. But Hosmer rebounded in a big way the next season, batting a personal-best .318/.385/.498 with career highs in home runs (25) and fWAR (4.0). Thanks in part to his production that year and his well-regarded clubhouse presence, the Royals – despite being at the start of a rebuild – wanted to keep Hosmer when he became a free agent. In the end, though, they couldn’t keep him from heading to San Diego, which hauled in Hosmer after he remained on the open market for much longer than expected.

At least during the initial stages of his contract, the Padres were banking on 2017-esque production from Hosmer. Unfortunately for them, Hosmer has been more Hyde than Jekyll in their uniform. He accounted for negative fWARs in each of his first two seasons as a Padre, totaling minus-0.5 over a team-leading 1,344 trips to the plate. His .259/.316/.412 line as a Padre has been 7 percent worse than the league-average offensive output, according to wRC+.

Based on his numbers as a Padre, it’s fair to say the Hosmer signing has been regrettable for the Padres. And it has caused other complications, including with Wil Myers. While Myers was the Padres’ first baseman when they signed Hosmer, he then had to shift to the outfield and hasn’t offered much production since. Consequently, Myers has been the subject of trade rumors for multiple years, including at this very moment. He’s a poor fit on a team that’s committed to Hosmer for the foreseeable future, and general manager A.J. Preller has worked to get rid of Myers as a result.

The fact that the Padres also have quite a bit of payroll tied up in Hosmer only adds to their problems. Their combined $444MM guarantees to Hosmer and third baseman Manny Machado – whose $300MM pact trumps Hosmer’s – might say otherwise, but they’ve never ranked among the freest spenders in the game (though they are on track for a franchise-high payroll in 2020). Every dollar counts in the Padres’ situation, so squandering nine figures on a player who has had so much trouble producing in their uniform could have negative ramifications for years.

Although they can’t be pleased with what Hosmer has given them thus far, he’s unlikely to go anywhere. Agent Scott Boras included full no-trade rights in the first three seasons of Hosmer’s deal when he negotiated it, for one. The contract also has an opt-out clause after the fifth year, though the way things have gone lately, it’s hard to imagine Hosmer walking away from the Padres. He’ll certainly be in San Diego in 2020, when the club will hope his age-30 campaign goes far better than his previous couple seasons.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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MLBTR Originals San Diego Padres This Date In Transactions History Eric Hosmer

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Jeff Bridich On Relationship With Nolan Arenado

By Connor Byrne | February 19, 2020 at 12:07am CDT

We’re nearing the one-year anniversary of the mammoth extension the Rockies awarded superstar third baseman Nolan Arenado last February. The club gave Arenado a franchise-record $234MM over seven years on a deal that won’t take effect until this season. There have already been trade rumors centering on Arenado, though, as well as a rift in the two sides’ relationship.

Arenado said last month “there’s a lot of disrespect from people there that I don’t want to be a part of,” and it’s not because his name has surfaced in trade talks. Rather, Arenado is reportedly annoyed that the Rockies haven’t made a clear attempt to better themselves after going from back-to-back playoff berths in 2017 and ’18 to a 71-win showing last season. The 28-year-old five-time All-Star remains a Rockie, however, and he assured last week that he won’t do anything behind the scenes to disrupt the team if he does stay in place.

Arenado’s beef is largely with general manager Jeff Bridich, who discussed the relationship he has with his franchise player Tuesday at Cactus League media day (via Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post). Bridich and Arenado haven’t sat down to clear the air yet, “But I trust that we will,” Bridich said.

The GM added that he’s hoping he and Arenado will get past their issues “through communication.” Regardless, Bridich emphasized that the goal is for the team to put together a much better year in 2020. Whether Arenado will be a part of it may be in question, but with seemingly no clubs making strong pushes to acquire him or his enormous contract (which includes an opt-out after 2021), it does seem he’ll at least start the upcoming season in Colorado.

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Colorado Rockies Jeff Bridich Nolan Arenado

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MLBPA Issues Statement On Investigation Into Astros

By Connor Byrne | February 18, 2020 at 11:00pm CDT

Weeks ago, Major League Baseball levied serious punishment against the Astros as a result of their sign-stealing scheme. The league suspended GM Jeff Luhnow and manager A.J. Hinch for a year apiece (they’ve since been fired), took away first- and second-round draft picks in each of the next two years and fined the franchise the maximum amount of $5MM. MLB did not drop the hammer on any Astros players, however, even though many were instrumental in the scandal.

[RELATED: How MLB, Astros Dug Their Own Hole]

Commissioner Rob Manfred spoke about the lack of discipline for Houston’s players this past weekend. Manfred argued that the players weren’t properly informed of the rules, so had the league come down on them, it likely would have led to “grievances and grievances that we were going to lose.” Indeed, as Evan Drellich of The Athletic explained this week (subscription required), MLB wouldn’t really have had a leg to stand on from a legal standpoint. With that in mind, Manfred & Co. decided to unleash their wrath only on the Astros organization and their higher-ups. Nevertheless, the MLBPA made clear Tuesday that it has fully cooperated with the league in regards to Houston’s misdeeds.

As part of a lengthy statement (all of which is available here via Drellich), the union said:

“The day after The Athletic published its Nov. 12 article, Major League Baseball informed the Players Association it would be conducting an investigation, and that it would want to interview players as a part of that investigation. MLB said from the outset that it was not its intention to discipline players. This was not surprising because the applicable rules did not allow for player discipline, because even if they did players were never notified of the rules to begin with, and because in past cases involving electronic sign stealing MLB had stated that Club personnel were responsible for ensuring compliance with the rules.

Against this backdrop, the Association on Nov. 13 sought and received confirmation from the league that the players interviewed and any other players would not be disciplined in connection with the allegations made in the article. We received that confirmation promptly on the evening of Nov. 13, and the player interviews began days later.

Any suggestion that the Association failed to cooperate with the Commissioner’s investigation, obstructed the investigation, or otherwise took positions which led to a stalemate in the investigation is completely untrue. We acted to protect the rights of our members, as is our obligation under the law.”

The union added that it and the league have recently engaged in “regular dialogue on potential rule changes affecting sign stealing, in-game technology and video, data access and usage, Club audits and disclosures, player education and enforcement – including the potential for player discipline.” According to the MLBPA, “no issue is off the table, including player discipline,” and the way “the parties handle the next several weeks will significantly affect what our game looks like for the next several decades.”

The current collective bargaining agreement is set to expire after the 2021 season. Therefore, how the league deals with the Astros’ crimes going forward could ultimately factor into whether a work stoppage takes place in the near future.

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Astros Sign-Stealing Scandal Houston Astros

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Latest On Astros’ Rotation

By Connor Byrne | February 18, 2020 at 9:35pm CDT

For obvious reasons, the Astros have made plenty of negative headlines in recent weeks. The start of the regular season continues to close in, though, so despite all the outside noise, the Astros will have to turn the page and focus on defending their American League pennant from a year ago.

When they do take the field the season, the Astros’ rotation figures to look quite a bit different than the all-world unit they relied on in 2019. Gone from that group are AL Cy Young runner-up Gerrit Cole and Wade Miley, a duo that combined for almost 380 innings of excellent pitching. Now, the Astros still have a great front-of-the-rotation tandem in Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke, and they’re slated to get Lance McCullers Jr. back after he missed all of last season while recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Beyond, Verlander, Greinke and McCullers, the rest of the Astros’ rotation picture is less clear. However, pitching coach Brent Strom shed some light on it in a discussion with Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. Strom suggested that Jose Urquidy is in line for the No. 4 spot. He also revealed that the Astros don’t expect to count on righty Brad Peacock as a starter. The veteran swingman made 15 starts in 23 appearances last year, but the neck issues that slowed him in 2019 have continued. Houston now expects him to factor into its bullpen instead of its rotation.

Regarding Peacock and the Astros’ starting staff, Strom told McTaggart, “I think you can probably count [Brad] Peacock out of the race.” Strom added that Peacock’s “probably more valuable to us in the bullpen,” leaving (in his view) Austin Pruitt, Josh James and Framber Valdez to compete for the No. 5 position. Although towering righty Forrest Whitley has been one of the Astros’ top prospects for at least a couple years, he’s probably not “a viable candidate” to land a job in their season-opening rotation, according to Strom.

Among the actual competitors for the Astros’ No. 5 position, only Pruitt’s new to the team. He joined the Astros in a trade with the Rays last month. The 30-year-old’s known for his high spin rate, but it hasn’t translated to much major league success thus far. Since debuting in 2017, Pruitt has posted 199 2/3 innings of 4.87 ERA ball (with a far superior 4.17 FIP and a solid 48.9 percent groundball rate) and recorded 6.63 K/9 against 2.25 BB/9. He’s out of minor league options, so he’ll have to earn a place on Houston’s 26-man roster or potentially be lost on waivers.

James, a fellow righty, and the left-handed Valdez still have options remaining. The hard-throwing James made an encouraging – albeit brief – debut in 2018, though he had difficulty with control in a relief role last season. The 26-year-old ended up tossing 61 1/3 frames and notching a 4.70 ERA/3.98 FIP with 5.14 walks per nine. On a better note, he did log a tremendous 14.67 K/9 while averaging 97.2 mph on his fastball.

Valdez, also 26, joined James in amassing lots of innings but struggling to throw strikes last season. He walked 5.6 hitters per nine, helping lead to a 5.86 ERA/4.98 FIP in 70 2/3 innings between the Astros’ rotation and bullpen. Valdez’s strikeout rate (8.66 K/9) was a lot worse than James’, but he did induce grounders at an outstanding 62.1 percent clip.

Just-hired manager Dusty Baker will clearly have to make some key decisions in forming a new-look rotation before the season commences. Verlander, Greinke and McCullers are locks, but the Astros don’t have any proven commodities after that trio.

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Houston Astros Austin Pruitt Brad Peacock Forrest Whitley Framber Valdez Jose Urquidy Josh James

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Camp Battles: Athletics’ Second Base Job

By Steve Adams | February 18, 2020 at 8:41pm CDT

The Athletics boast one of baseball’s best infield trios: third baseman Matt Chapman, shortstop Marcus Semien and first baseman Matt Olson are among the sport’s very best as their respective positions. It’s easy to argue that Oakland is 75 percent of the way to the best infield in the game — but it’s that remaining 25 percent that will be one of the key areas of focus for the organization this spring.

Oakland’s second base position is wide open, although that doesn’t mean that the club is short on candidates. Franklin Barreto, Jorge Mateo, Tony Kemp, Sheldon Neuse and Rule 5 pick Vimael Machin are among the candidates to join that all-world infield mix. If the Oakland organization isn’t content with the options already in house, they could look to a free-agent market that still includes veterans Brian Dozier, Scooter Gennett and Tim Beckham. The merits of further muddying an already crowded mix can be debated, but the A’s at least looked into Jason Kipnis before he signed with the Cubs, so perhaps a lefty bat like Gennett would be of some interest.

Complicating the matter for Oakland decision-makers is that four of the five incumbent possibilities are unable to be sent to the minors; each of Barreto, Mateo and Kemp is out of minor league options. Machin would have to be put on waivers and offered back to the Cubs upon clearing if he doesn’t win a spot on the roster. It’s a competition that’ll surely force the Athletics into some tough decisions, but that’s common this time of year.

Let’s take a look at the options…

  • Barreto: Brett Lawrie is out of baseball. Sean Nolin hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since 2015. Kendall Graveman? He’ll spent the 2020 season with the division-rival Mariners after being non-tendered two years ago following Tommy John surgery. Some might question what those names have to do with Barreto, but A’s fans know: he’s the last vestige of the franchise-altering trade that sent Josh Donaldson to Toronto in November 2014. Still not even 24 years old, Barreto ranked among the game’s top 100 prospects in four straight offseasons but has season his prospect/rookie status expire without establishing himself in the big leagues. He curbed some strikeout issues in Triple-A last year and posted a strong .295/.374/.552 slash in Triple-A. Manager Bob Melvin tells MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos that 2020 camp represents Barreto’s “best shot” to date with the organization. “[I]f he has the type of Spring that he has had before, it’s going to be tough not to have him be part of that dynamic, whether it’s a left-right dynamic or an everyday role,” says Melvin. Assistant hitting coach Eric Martins calls the job “absolutely [Mateo’s] to lose.”
  • Mateo: Another high-profile prospect at the time of acquisition (alongside Dustin Fowler and James Kaprielian in the trade that sent Sonny Gray to the Yankees), Mateo has yet to play in the Majors. He brings elite speed — 80-grade, on some reports — that can’t be matched by the rest of the participants in this competition. Mateo hit .289/.330/.504 in 566 Triple-A plate appearances last year — a slash that incredibly, by measure of wRC+ (96), ranked just below league average in the offensively supercharged Triple-A environment. He’s a shortstop by trade and has also played center field, so he could make the club as a super-utility option even if he doesn’t win the second base job.
  • Kemp: The newest entrant into the Oakland second base derby, Kemp was acquired just last month in a trade that sent minor league infielder Alfonso Rivas to the Cubs. The 28-year-old Kemp has played in 283 games in the big leagues, mostly with the Astros, and put together a .233/.314/.367 slash through 749 plate appearances. His left-handed bat could theoretically pair well with the right-handed bats of Barreto, Kemp or Neuse, although he hasn’t displayed particularly significant platoon splits. He’s a .312/.373/.425 hitter in parts of four Triple-A seasons and brings some defensive versatility to the mix as well; Kemp has logged 1152 Major League innings in the outfield — including 321 frames in center.
  • Neuse: The fact that Neuse has all three minor league option years remaining will surely work against him, but he’ll have the chance to outplay his out-of-options brethren in Oakland camp. Like everyone else on this list, the 25-year-old Neuse was originally part of another organization; he joined the A’s along with Jesus Luzardo and Blake Treinen in the trade that sent Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle to the Nationals. The 2019 season was a big one for Neuse, who ripped through Triple-A pitching with a .317/.389/.550 slash en route to making his Major League debut. He’s still only totaled 61 plate appearances in the bigs, but the former second-round pick will surely add to that total in some capacity in 2020.
  • Machin: The 26-year-old Machin is — pardon the pun — an OBP machine who has walked nearly as often in his minor league career as he’s struck out (215 free passes to 258 punchouts). He’s fresh off a .295/.390/.412 slash between Double-A and Triple-A in 2019, and he’s hit at a .313/.345/.437 clip in winter ball this season. Machin has at least 650 plate appearances at all four infield positions but has spent the bulk of his minor league time at second base. His versatility, OBP skills and Rule 5 status could give him an opportunity to break camp as a utility option, and a strong early showing could net him larger looks as the season wears on.

Former Blue Jays and White Sox infielder Ryan Goins stands out as a notable non-roster option who’s in camp, although it’d certainly qualify as an upset if he beat out five 40-man players — including two out-of-options former top prospects who’ve yet to see an extended audition in the big leagues (Barreto, Mateo).

Regardless of the outcome, there’s some potential for a notable 40-man move or two here late in camp. It seems likeliest that the A’s will play things safe and keep both Barreto and Mateo on the roster, but they’ll be two of the more intriguing names to monitor on this year’s list of out-of-options players throughout Spring Training.

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MLBTR Originals Oakland Athletics Camp Battles Franklin Barreto Jorge Mateo Sheldon Neuse Tony Kemp Vimael Machin

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MLBTR Poll: Who’s The NL Central Favorite?

By Connor Byrne | February 18, 2020 at 7:00pm CDT

With the exception of the Reds, who have made several notable moves, this hasn’t been an action-packed offseason in the National League Central. Cincinnati was a fourth-place team a season ago and is currently mired in a six-year playoff drought, but the club has made an earnest attempt to transform itself into a playoff contender since the 2019 campaign concluded. Mike Moustakas, Nick Castellanos and Shogo Akiyama have all come aboard in free agency to bolster the Reds’ position player group. Meanwhile, a rotation that was already strong in 2019 has tacked on Wade Miley to complement Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer and Anthony DeSclafani, and the bullpen has pulled in Pedro Strop.

The Reds only won 75 games last year, but at last check, the majority of MLBTR voters expect them to amass 80-some victories this season. In the NL Central, where there doesn’t appear to be a dominant team, it may only take 80-plus wins to claim the division. The Cardinals’ 91 led the way last year, but they’ve made no truly headline-grabbing acquisitions in recent months, they’ve lost outfielder Marcell Ozuna to the Braves and now one of their most reliable starters, Miles Mikolas, is dealing with arm troubles early in the spring.

Along with the Cards, the 2019 Central boasted two other plus-.500 teams – the Brewers (89 wins) and the Cubs (84). It wouldn’t be a surprise to see either team contend for the playoffs again this year, but it’s difficult to argue that they’ve gotten better since last season. The Brewers have made quite a few changes, especially in the infield (Brock Holt’s their latest pickup), but they also lost two of their best position players in Moustakas and catcher Yasmani Grandal earlier in free agency.

The Cubs, meantime, have been stunningly quiet for a deep-pocketed team that collapsed down the stretch in 2019. Seismic changes were expected after they laid an egg last year, and maybe they’ll still come (a Kris Bryant trade seems like the most realistic way to shake things up). For now, though, their roster looks a lot like the 2019 edition. There’s still plenty of talent on hand, but there’s no more Castellanos, who emerged as one of the Cubs’ main threats at the plate after they acquired him from the Tigers prior to last July’s trade deadline.

Aside from the Pirates, who are more likely to compete for the No. 1 pick than a playoff berth this year (and whom we’ll leave out of this poll), it wouldn’t seem unrealistic to pick any of the NL Central’s teams to win the division. This year’s PECOTA projections (via Daniel Kramer of MLB.com) have the Reds grabbing the division with 86 wins and the Cubs totaling 85 en route to a wild-card spot. The system gives the Reds 66.2 percent preseason playoff odds, the Cubs 51.5 percent, the Cardinals 24.4 percent and the Brewers 20.3. We still have several weeks to go before the season opens, but as of now, which of those clubs do you think will finish on top?

(Poll link for app users)

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Chicago Cubs Cincinnati Reds MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Milwaukee Brewers Pittsburgh Pirates St. Louis Cardinals

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Twins Sign Cory Gearrin, Lane Adams

By Steve Adams | February 18, 2020 at 5:51pm CDT

The Twins have signed right-hander Cory Gearrin and outfielder Lane Adams to minor league contracts, per an announcement from Triple-A Rochester director of communications Nate Rowan.

Gearrin has been invited to Major League camp in Spring Training. He could earn a $1MM salary in the majors, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. It seems as though Adams will head directly to minor league camp.

Gearrin, 33, split the 2019 season between the Mariners and Yankees, pitching to a combined 4.07 ERA with 7.6 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 0.81 HR/9 and a 44.8 percent ground-ball rate. That’s generally in line with the year-to-year results he’s posted across the past four seasons, although Gearrin’s 2017 campaign with the Giants is a notable outlier; that year saw him rack up 68 innings of 1.99 ERA ball — albeit with less encouraging secondary stats (8.5 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, 88 percent strand rate, 3.89 FIP, 4.65 xFIP).

Generally speaking, though, Gearrin has been a durable and serviceable middle relief option. He’s jumped from the Giants to the Rangers, A’s, Mariners and Yankees in that time but posted a cumulative 3.42 ERA (3.96 FIP) with 209 punchouts against 95 walks in 229 innings of work. He doesn’t throw hard, averaging about 92 mph on his sinker, but he’s typically done a good job keeping the ball in the yard since returning from 2014 Tommy John surgery.

As for Adams, the 30-year-old has appeared in parts of three MLB seasons (2016-18) and tallied a combined .263/.333/.467 slash in 154 plate appearances. However, Adams has struck out in 31 percent of his MLB plate appearances and 30 percent of his trips to the plate in Triple-A, where he carries a much more tepid .233/.306/.390 slash through 234 games. Still, Adams can handle any of the three outfield positions and offers some power and speed as a depth option in the upper minors.

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Minnesota Twins Transactions Cory Gearrin Lane Adams

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How MLB & The Astros Dug Their Own Hole

By Jeff Todd | February 18, 2020 at 5:14pm CDT

Fan anger surrounding the Astros cheating scandal has been stoked by the unmitigated heat coming from MLB players. Usually reserved figures (Nick Markakis being the latest) have laid bare their intense anger over the cheating of their peers and the league’s handling of the matter to date.

This isn’t how it was supposed to go for MLB commissioner Rob Manfred and Astros owner Jim Crane when they released a double-whammy on January 13th. No doubt the hope was that suspending and then firing GM Jeff Luhnow and manager A.J. Hinch (along with some punishment for the team) would do much of the necessary work of moving past a now-infamous trashcan-banging scheme — a scheme, it is important to note, that was rooted out by a combination of long-held suspicion, investigative reporting, and dedicated public analysis (aided by the very same technology that has boosted MLB’s fortunes and allowed the Astros to hatch their scheme).

While Manfred orchestrated this approach to dealing with the situation, he surely hoped the furor would die down by the time Spring Training rolled around. Instead, players around the game have directed a steady and potent stream of venom at their opponents, as well as at Manfred and Crane. It’s a reaction without precedent, and Manfred is a self-proclaimed “precedent guy.”

The curveball was not preceded by a pair of loud bangs — but perhaps they still should’ve seen it coming.

The core problem with the league’s and the team’s handling of this situation doesn’t lie in the specifics of just what punishment was meted out. It’s inherent to the crisis-management approach that MLB and the Astros adopted. It all comes off as entirely driven not by what’s right, but by what is convenient, which is precisely the wrong tone when the underlying matter of concern relates to the essential fairness of the contest that itself underlies the entire economic structure of Baseball.

In somewhat different ways, over time, Manfred, Crane and many of the Astros players have left an impression of insincerity. Initial suspicions to that effect seemed to be confirmed by later statements and actions. And that leads to yet more suspicions, which is probably why we’re all now well versed in the unwritten rules of on-field clothing removal and Jose Altuve’s tattoo travails.

More to the point, this reinforced sense of disingenuousness completely undermines the reasoning behind the punishment that was and wasn’t imposed. And it provides the tinder and kindling needed to turn a trashcan bang into a dumpster fire.

The typically reserved Mike Trout says he “lost some respect for some guys” — which is a quietly immense issuance of judgment roughly akin to your beloved grandmother softly crying and informing you that you have let her down. He says it’s unfortunate that players involved in the illicit scheme have escaped punishment.

But wait … Manfred says this too! He said just the other day he’d have punished players “in a perfect world,” explaining why he couldn’t and didn’t. So why the loathing for the commish? Why is Justin Turner calling Manfred out in such stark terms (beyond the fact that the commissioner stepped on a rake by calling the commissioner’s trophy a “piece of metal”)?

Here’s why: the league only backed into the real explanation for its stance after it couldn’t get the players to pipe down about the subject. And when the truth finally emerged, it was accompanied by a baseless suggestion that the MLBPA is at least as much to blame for the lack of punishment of specific players.

Evan Drellich of The Athletic (subscription link) and Jeff Passan of ESPN.com each covered the matter from a fundamentally legal perspective, explaining why the league simply could not have imposed punishment of the Astros players. You can read on for the full details, but the essential reason is fairly straightforward: the league didn’t act in advance to install clear rules and therefore wouldn’t have had solid legal ground to stand on in suspending or fining players.

This is, on the one hand, a sensible and comprehensible explanation. Manfred acknowledges in an interview with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link) that his office wasn’t ahead of the game when it came to the use of technology to steal signs. Whether that was or wasn’t a major failure on the league’s part can be debated. But Manfred’s hands were tied when the Astros scandal hit.

Fine. But this isn’t what we heard when Manfred issued his report and disciplinary decision a month back.

That report spent more time expressly clearing Crane of any wrongdoing or responsibility than it did mentioning legal obstacles to disciplining players. Manfred wrote that it would be “difficult and impractical” to punish specific players, not because of these newly revealed reasons but because so many had participated and some now played for other teams. He said he placed blame primarily on the leaders (Luhnow and Hinch, especially) rather than on players; indeed, Manfred wrote that “some players may have understood that their conduct was not only condoned by the Club, but encouraged by it.” We were also told that players were granted immunity for their testimony — a practical necessity to reach the truth.

Even as it revises its stance — it’s not that the initial lack of punishment was necessarily right and appropriate; it’s that, oh man, we totally would’ve suspended them but we couldn’t! — MLB has rather obviously started a whisper campaign to draw the union into the circle of distrust. There is still no public reporting to tell us much of anything about what the MLBPA did or did not do between the emergence of the scandal and the issuance of Manfred’s report. But we’re now being treated to hints (or, in some cases, outright claims) that suggest the union hindered player punishment and was wrong for doing so.

Barring some compelling information that has yet to be revealed, this is flatly ridiculous.

First of all, it isn’t as if the union has stood firmly in the way of all punishments of players. We have rules in place that give Manfred broad leeway to punish players accused of domestic violence and certain other bad acts. There’s a broad regime dealing with performance enhancing drugs. In virtually all cases in recent years, suspensions have been worked out in advance without grievance actions to challenge them. And we’ve seen strong evidence that players writ large are not cool with cheating of the Astros’ kind.

Further, there is no indication here that the union was asked for its approval of any leaguewide system for dealing with illicit sign stealers — let alone that it obstructed any league effort to do so. To the contrary, Manfred acknowledges the league didn’t have quite enough foresight. Neither is there any suggestion that the union specifically gummed up actual attempts by the league to pursue discipline against Astros players.

Rather, the implied reasoning goes like this: Manfred told Luhnow he couldn’t use technology to steal signs. Whether or not he was on notice, Luhnow didn’t tell the players in sufficient detail. That lack of notice to the players made it legally impossible to punish players who eventually cheated (with the assistance of Luhnow’s staffers). And this is … the union’s fault?

Here’s how MLB.com’s Alyson Footer states things, via Twitter: “My only point is — if players are mad Astros weren’t punished, they need to talk to the union, since the union is the reason why players were granted immunity.”

It’s rather stunning to see such an intimation that the union is somehow at fault for advocating for the rights of individual players. The union’s purpose — its legal duty, in fact — is to represent all of its members and back their rights. It would be inconceivable to give up compelling legal arguments against punishment of specific players, even if the union was also amenable to working out clear-cut rules to prevent this sort of behavior in the future. It is disingenuous to interpret the negotiation of immunity in exchange for testimony otherwise when Manfred himself acknowledged that the league simply didn’t have legal standing to issue punishment.

Rosenthal seemingly casts aspersions in a different but still notable manner: “In fairness, Manfred was not alone in failing to see the future clearly. As far back as 2015, the Major League Baseball Players Association (MLBPA) expressed concerns to MLB about the rise of technology in the sport. The union, however, did not directly focus on the threat to the game’s integrity.”

The suggestion here, and in other similar accounts in the media, seems to be that the MLBPA shares equal responsibility with the commissioner’s office for studying and guiding the overall path of the game. One wonders whether the league really feels this way when it is bargaining with its players. As a practical matter, the union has nowhere near the resources or the breadth of responsibilities and capabilities enjoyed by Major League Baseball. Craig Calcaterra of NBC Sports has much more to say on this particular point.

Manfred has stated that the primary focus was on rooting out all the misdeeds so that we’d all know just what had happened. “We ended up where we ended up in pursuit of really, I think, the most important goal of getting the facts and getting them out there for people to know it.” Concepts of truth-finding, transparency, and opportunity for public reaction (even shaming) are perhaps all necessary building blocks to ultimate reconciliation — especially for a bad act that cannot be met with retributive justice. It’s an approach deployed in situations far more dire than this one. But while Manfred seems to acknowledge as much, this is precisely where the investigation and assessment of punishment has failed so badly.

Manfred’s report called it a player-driven scheme but didn’t name any current players, leaving it to speculation and intrigue to guess at just who had been at the center of the scandal. This only deepened the problems caused by the lack of punitive action.

Then, ensuing reporting showed that Manfred had not revealed a bevy of pertinent information he had regarding the involvement of the Astros’ front office. In what the kids call a self-own, Manfred appeared to mock Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal for digging up the “private letter” he had sent on the topic to Luhnow. Manfred did not explain why that information was provided to the suspended Luhnow but not the broader public. He did not explain how the facts he set forth in that letter related to his conclusions regarding the player-driven nature of the sign-stealing/conveying scheme. And he was bizarrely dismissive of the importance of his own communications to club officials — despite specifically premising the punishment of Luhnow and lack of punishment of Astros players upon a league-issued memorandum.

Now, we’re left wondering: Are the ’Stros players really regretful? Can we trust them when they say they didn’t cheat in 2019? How exhaustive was Manfred’s investigation of that matter? What of the still-open Red Sox situation? Just yesterday, Sox owner John Henry and CEO Sam Kennedy indicated that they’ve yet to even be interviewed as part of the league’s probe into the organization, which is set to wrap up next week. What actually is the league stance on player culpability in the use of technology to steal signs? Does anyone care about the cheating that took place, or only that it was exposed?

Just as the Astros’ words have largely rung hollow, the league’s own statements are now tumbling into an ever-widening credibility gap. “I hate where we are,” Manfred said of the scandal. Before MLB and the Astros can climb out of the hole they dug for themselves, they’ll need to backfill it with the unvarnished truth.

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MLBTR Chat Transcript

By Steve Adams | February 18, 2020 at 2:28pm CDT

Click here to read a transcript of this week’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.

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