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Archives for January 2020

MLBTR Poll: Luis Robert’s Rookie Season

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The White Sox recently made their latest bold move in a winter full of them, signing center fielder Luis Robert to a six-year, $50MM extension last week. Although the 22-year-old Robert has never played above the Triple-A level, setting his price for the foreseeable future came off as a worthwhile risk by the White Sox. Those types of gambles have become a trend for the club, which took the same approach before last season in inking left fielder Eloy Jimenez to a six-year, $43MM guarantee. Because Chicago was no longer concerned about Jimenez’s service time after extending him, he predictably cracked its Opening-Day roster. As expected, Jimenez went on to further establish himself as an integral long-term building block for the White Sox.

The team no doubt expects Robert to follow Jimenez’s lead this year in cementing himself as a foundational piece. Odds are that Robert, like Jimenez last year, will get a chance to do so from Day 1 of the season. Assuming that’s the case, he’ll take over for the White Sox’s most common center fielders from 2019 – Leury Garcia and Adam Engel – as their primary option. Garcia and Engel combined for a a passable 2.1 fWAR last season, though they didn’t offer much at the plate, totaling an unimposing .269/.308/.379 batting line with 14 home runs and 18 stolen bases.

Considering Robert has no experience in the majors, there’s no guarantee he’ll outproduce Garcia and Engel in his first taste of the majors. On the other hand, as en elite prospect (MLB.com ranks him third in the game) who has run roughshod over high-minors pitching, Robert’s a legitimate candidate to begin his career with a flourish. Robert hadn’t played above High-A ball until last season, when he destroyed Double-A (.314/.362/.518 in 244 plate appearances) en route to a promotion to Triple-A Charlotte. There was no shortage of offense in the International League, but the .297/.341/.634 slash Robert registered in 223 attempts was still 36 percent better than the league’s average hitter, according to FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric.

It’s too much to ask for Robert to hit that well in the majors this season, of course. Nevertheless, projections on his rookie season are bullish. For instance, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS system calls for 2.3 fWAR, a .265/.309/.455 line, 20 homers and 24 steals over 539 plate appearances. That would go down as a similar first full season to the one Nationals budding star center fielder Victor Robles recorded in 2019, an age-22, 617-PA campaign in which he posted 2.5 fWAR, slashed .255/.326/.419, swatted 17 HRs and stole 28 bases.

For the purpose of this poll, we’ll set the WAR over/under at ZiPS’ forecast, 2.3. Do you expect Robert to meet, exceed or fall short of that figure in 2020?

(Poll link for app users)

Arbitration Breakdown: Jonathan Villar

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Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here.

Jonathan Villar is projected for a hefty raise in his third year of arbitration eligibility in 2019, thanks to a significant improvement over his performance the prior two years.  Villar hit for a career-high 24 home runs and 73 runs batted in last season, while also hitting .274 and stealing 40 bases.  Villar appeared in all 162 of the Orioles’ games, accumulating 714 plate appearances.  After Villar earned $4.825MM in 2019, my model projects him to more than double that amount, with a $5.575MM raise to a $10.4MM salary for 2020.  However, there really are not many useful comparables to work with in Villar’s case.

Very few players with Villar’s service time have similar profiles in terms of home runs and stolen bases. There is only one such player who had more than half as many of each in the last five years — Eduardo Nunez, who also stole 40 bases and hit 16 home runs back in 2016, while batting .288 and knocking in 67 runs over 141 games and 595 PA.  Other than VIllar’s eight extra home runs, Nunez does look similar, albeit with fewer plate appearances (119 less than Villar) and games played (21 less).  Nunez only got a $2.7MM raise, so add in some inflation and the effect of the extra home runs and extra games, and maybe Villar could get close to a $4MM raise, but that is still far short of the model’s $5.575MM raise estimate.

Looking for players with over 700 PA in the last two years, we find Cesar Hernandez from last year and Charlie Blackmon from two years ago, though Blackmon isn’t a comparable since his case relies more on overall hitting numbers than power and speed (.331 average, 34 homers, 104 RBI, 14 steals for Blackmon in 2017).  Hernandez got a $2.65MM raise last offseason coming off a 2018 campaign that saw him post a .253 average, 15 home runs, and 60 RBI, to go along with 19 steals.  This is an obvious floor for Villar, as he should clearly exceed this range.

Also from last year, Didi Gregorius may be a more realistic floor for Villar. He got a $3.5MM raise after hitting .268 with 27 HR and 86 RBI — all similar to Villar — but only stealing 10 bases.  Of course, Gregorius only had 569 PA, far less than Villar’s 714 PA.  Villar should certainly clear $3.5MM as well.

My best guess is Villar gets a raise of around $4MM to $4.5MM.  The model may be estimating high because it is rewarding him heavily for his 714 plate appearances.  Although the model has clearly established that the average effect of more plate appearances really compounds, there may be exceptions in cases like these.  I do not think Villar reaches the $5.575MM raise estimate, so he should land closer to $9MM than the $10.4MM the model forecast.

Angels Interested In Mike Clevinger

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The Angels and Indians have discussed a trade involving right-hander Mike Clevinger, MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi reports.  Talks between the two clubs have seemingly stalled, however, or at least “there has not been active dialogue in recent days,” as Morosi described the situation.  It’s possible to imagine that negotiations may have not have gotten far at all, given how Morosi reports that the Indians’ first ask was top Angels prospect Jo Adell as well as another player.

Adell is a consensus top-five prospect in baseball, ranked #2 in the sport by both Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America, #3 by Fangraphs, and #5 by MLB Pipeline.  This impressive set of ratings comes despite an abbreviated 2019 season for Adell, who was waylaid by ankle and hamstring injuries and limited to just 341 PA over 76 total games at three different minor league levels.  Only 27 of those games came with the Triple-A Salt Lake Bees, and since Adell had only a .676 OPS over 132 PA for the Bees, the Angels could opt to give him a bit more seasoning time at Triple-A before summoning him to the big leagues (and of course, the team would gain an extra year of control over Adell by keeping him in the minors for at least a few weeks).

Still, Adell is expected to make his MLB debut in 2020 and could be counted on as an everyday player by season’s end.  It has been widely speculated that the Halos will use 2019 breakout star Brian Goodwin in right field until Adell is ready for a promotion, and then Adell and Goodwin will, at worst, split duties for the remainder of the year.  Should Adell make an immediate impact (or even if Goodwin matches his strong production from last season), the Angels promise to boast one of the league’s stronger outfields, assuming Justin Upton returns to good health and Mike Trout continues his Cooperstown-level domination of the sport.

With so much expected of Adell so soon, it isn’t surprising that the Angels balked at moving him in any trade demand, even for a pitcher like Clevinger.  The 29-year-old righty has a 2.96 ERA, 3.13 K/BB rate, and 10.3 K/9 over 500 2/3 innings since the start of the 2017 season.  Clevinger is controlled through the 2022 season and is projected to earn $4.5MM in his first year of arbitration eligibility; his initial arb salary would surely have been much higher were it not for a teres major muscle injury that cost him around two months of action last year.

Between Clevinger’s cost-controlled price tag and strong results on the mound, Cleveland has seemingly no immediate reason to move him for anything less than a huge return.  The payroll-conscious Tribe has already moved Corey Kluber to the Rangers this offseason and might yet still trade Francisco Lindor, though those players are much more expensive and offer less years of control than Clevinger.  In fact, despite Kluber’s salary and injury-plagued 2019, it’s fair to wonder whether the Indians would have moved the former Cy Young Award winner had it not been for the team’s comfort level in Clevinger as the new ace of their staff, not to mention the development of young arms Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac, and Aaron Civale.

The Padres and Dodgers have also had interest in Clevinger this offseason, and it’s probably safe to guess that any club in need of pitching has at least checked in with the Tribe to see if a deal could be found for Clevinger or perhaps any member of the impressive Cleveland rotation.  The Angels have added Dylan Bundy and Julio Teheran to their starting five this offseason and will be getting Shohei Ohtani back from Tommy John surgery, though Anaheim still lags behind many contending teams in terms of both depth and frontline arms.  Clevinger was actually picked by the Angels in the fourth round of the 2011 draft, but was sent to Cleveland in an August 2014 trade for reliever Vinnie Pestano.

Stan Kasten Discusses Dodgers’ Offseason, Cole, Spending

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Though the Dodgers have been linked to several big names in both trade rumors and free agency, it’s been a pretty quiet offseason at Chavez Ravine, with the club’s one-year, $10MM deal with Blake Treinen standing out as the biggest move of note.  The lack of action to date hasn’t sat well with many fans and pundits, including Bill Plaschke of the Los Angeles Times, though Dodgers president and CEO Stan Kasten strongly defended his club’s strategies in a recent phone conversation with Plaschke.

As one might expect, Kasten took issue with what he described as “the L.A. Times’ characterization that everyone hates us,” which he felt was incorrect given strong attendance numbers.  While “for sure there are some fans…and a lot of people in the Twitterverse” who are critical of the Dodgers’ decisions, “based on the fans that support us…including this coming year…incredibly strong support and ticket sales…you keep trying to convince yourself that everyone hates us.  I just think you’re wrong.”

Kasten denied that the Dodgers were in any way limited by payroll considerations, or lacked full commitment to winning their first World Series since 1988, saying “we really need” to capture that elusive title.

“There are metrics in business that are mostly private that we look at, and I’d say we feel successful there,” Kasten said.  “But there’s no question that all of us who are competitive, from every owner that has a piece of the team to the junior people in the front office, we’re laser-focused on winning the World Series….It’s obviously not about what you spend, it is about the moves you make, the decisions you make.  I think questioning those things, criticizing those things, that’s absolutely fair.  But just to say there’s a [payroll] number you need to hit and if you don’t hit it you’re not trying, that’s just silly.”

To that end, Kasten noted that the Dodgers were fourth in spending last season, and are likely to be beyond the $208MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold by season’s end.  Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez estimates that L.A. has a current luxury tax number of just under $189MM, though “the team we have now is not going to be the team we have to start the postseason,” Kasten said.  “I expect that team, this year, it looks like it’s going to be well over the CBT, or somewhat over.”

The types of larger-salaried players who would boost a CBT number could come sooner rather than later, as Kasten said “there are guys that we think could be difference makers and we have pursued them, we are continuing to pursue them, when there is an opportunity we will certainly jump at it.”  One of the players who was on the Dodgers’ radar earlier this winter was Gerrit Cole, though Kasten doesn’t believe Cole shared that interest in coming to L.A., no matter the dollars involved.  Cole joined the Yankees on the largest contract ever given to a pitcher — a nine-year, $324MM deal.

“It is clear now, I think it was clear to us in the middle of the process, he wanted to be a Yankee, he just did,” Kasten said.  “In retrospect, I think we were just the stalking horse to get a number he finally could get from a team he wanted to go to.  I don’t have any quibble with his approach…it was all very fair, but he wants to be somewhere, he got a lot of money to be where he wanted to be.”

Whether adding a particular star player is necessarily the right move to finally put Los Angeles over the top in a World Series, however, is far from a certainty.  Kasten points out that recent postseason heroes Daniel Hudson (with the Nationals in 2019) and Steve Pearce (with the Red Sox in 2019) were unheralded additions to their respective teams.

This strikes to the heart of the debate between Kasten and Plaschke, as the latter is concerned that the Dodgers’ focus on sustained success will keep the team from making a direct and concentrated push to end the championship drought in any one given year.  Kasten, by contrast, feels that the team’s approach allows it to be in the hunt every season.

“We won 106 games and came a couple of outs away from beating the team that won the World Series, that doesn’t suggest to me a system that needs to be completely torn apart,” Kasten said.  “What about the renewed pipeline, the old Dodger value of a player pipeline that I think we’ve had a reasonable amount of success at rebuilding?  How about the kids that are homegrown Dodgers?  We have a payroll of $200 million.  How can you call us cheap?  It blows my mind.“

Jae-Hwan Kim To Return To KBO For 2020 Season

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Korean outfielder Jae-Hwan Kim’s posting deadline has come and gone without a contract with a Major League club, according to Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News (Twitter link).  As such, Kim will return to the KBO League’s Doosan Bears for the 2020 season, and he isn’t eligible to be posted again until November.

After being officially posted on December 6, Kim had until 4pm CT today to work out a deal with an MLB team.  Kim’s agency tells Yoo that four Major League clubs had discussions about the outfielder’s services, though the Marlins were the only team publicly known to have interest in Kim, and even that interest may have waned after Corey Dickerson was signed.  It’s possible that clubs weren’t comfortable signing a player they knew relatively little about, as Yoo wrote in another piece earlier this week that “Kim came out of blue to enter the open market via posting, which left surprised major league scouts without detailed reports on the player that they could send to their clubs.”

It isn’t known if Kim will again attempt a jump to North American baseball after the 2020 season, when he’ll be 32 years old.  Regardless if Kim’s future focus is on the Bears or the big leagues, he’ll certainly look to improve on his 115 home runs and .283/.362/.434 slash line over 574 plate appearances last season.  While a respectable performance on paper, it represents a modest showing in the hitter-friendly KBO League, and a big step down from the 116 homers and 1.000+ OPS totals Kim posted from 2016-18.

Quick Hits: Yankees, Urshela, Orioles, Gonzalez, Sherman

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It’s an NFL day, but there’s time enough for some quick hits in MLB…

  • Gio Urshela projects as the Opening Day third baseman after a breakout year in the Bronx.  He put up 3.4 rWAR while Miguel Andujar missed the year with injuries, and since Andujar has minor league options remaining, Urshela’s case looks even stronger. Urshela could even expand his portfolio to include backup shortstop duties in 2020, per MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch, though Thairo Estrada and Tyler Wade are the more likely options to take that on should Gleyber Torres need a day off.
  • Second-year Orioles’ manager Brandon Hyde will have a veteran voice in his ear this season now that Fredi Gonzalez has joined his staff. Gonzalez is listed as a general Major League Coach, but the veteran manager looks forward to being freed up to contribute in a lot of different areas, per MASN’s Roch Kubatko. Gonzalez will team with Major League Field Coordinator Tim Cossins to fill the duties traditionally assigned to a bench coach – but the important thing for the Orioles is that Hyde has another influence that he trusts as he looks to build on the development of a very young Orioles’ squad. Gonzalez certainly knows the terrain, having spent the last few seasons as the third base coach for the Miami Marlins. When the 2019 season came to a close, Gonzalez didn’t know exactly what would await him, but he decided it was time to move on from Miami and make himself a free agent. Hyde, meanwhile, managed the High-A and Double-A affiliates in Florida during Gonzalez’ managerial tenure from 2007 to 2010, and he didn’t wait long to add Gonzalez to his staff.
  • As they say, the ball don’t lie, and that’s good enough for Joel Sherman of the New York Post, who marks the Nationals as the winners of last year’s offseason thanks to their championship in October. Of course, a year makes all the difference, as Sherman names the Red Sox the top loser of last year’s offseason for their ill-fated attempt to keep the good vibes going after their 2018 World Series title. Sherman makes this particularly interesting note about the fates of those giving multi-year offers to relief pitchers: “There were 11 relievers who signed for multiple years last season. Six had zero or negative WAR (Baseball Reference version). Just two improved on their WAR from 2018 to 2019, and just three ([Zack] Britton, [Adam] Ottavino and Justin Wilson) improved their ERA.” For what it’s worth, the Nationals can be counted among the group of team’s handing out multi-year deals to a reliever this offseason.

Offseason Notes: Nationals, Free Agents, Rays, Cubs, Bryant, Contreras

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The World Champion Washington Nationals are likely to move on from their remaining free agents, save for local institution Ryan Zimmerman and perhaps his first base partner Matt Adams, per MASN’s Mark Zuckerman. That means Daniel Hudson has likely priced himself out of the Nationals’ plans. Fernando Rodney could get another shot on a minor league deal, but GM Mike Rizzo has handed those out rather liberally this winter, and the bullpen barracks are looking pretty full: Javy Guerra, Fernando Abad, and David Hernandez are all competing for bullpen spots on minor league deals while Sean Doolittle, Will Harris, Tanner Rainey, Wander Suero and Roenis Elias look pretty good to secure their seats at the table. Hunter Strickland, and one of Joe Ross, Austin Voth, and Erick Fedde could also very well end up in the bullpen, leaving just a spot or two as truly up for grabs. Brian Dozier, the last of the Nats’ five remaining free agents, is all but gone now that Starlin Castro and Asdrubal Cabrera have been signed.

  • The Rays have pretty consistently made themselves a good place for January free agents to take their career to the next level, per John Romano of the Tampa Bay Times. A list of short-term additions late in the free agent season have gone on to produce in Tampa Bay and earn themselves a raise the following winter. The partial list of players who went on to earn bigger paydays after leaving Tampa includes Avisail Garcia, Logan Morrison, C.J. Cron, and Corey Dickerson. The time is now for the Rays, who typically strike about this time of year, and they still have needs to fill. Expect Tampa to add another bat and another catcher before the winter is out.
  • The Cubs have lingered in the shadows throughout the winter, and though a Kris Bryant trade has been clearly telegraphed, the star third baseman remains in Chicago due to asking price, per David Kaplan of NBC Sports Chicago. Speaking to people around the game, Kaplan found real skepticism that Bryant remains the foundational superstar he was in 2016. That hasn’t stopped the Cubs from asking for the moon, with the same being true of their asking price for Willson Contreras. Theo Epstein and the Cubs are in a tough place after seeing their championship window slam closed last season, and it’s understandable for the braintrust in Chicago to hold out hope for a franchise-altering return for one of their homegrown stars. But if the return they seek never materializes, it’ll be interesting to see what kind of alternative plan they can cook up to keep these Cubs viable.

MLBTR Originals

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It’s a new year, but MLBTR is bringing you the same up-to-the-minute transaction news and market evaluation. Lest there be a lull in the action, the MLBTR staff occasionally puts out original content. Let’s take a minute to gather that material and make sure you aren’t missing a beat. Here is some of the original content from MLBTR writers over the past week…

 

MLBTR Polls: Washington Nationals’ Recent Additions

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The defending champion Washington Nationals began their offseason in a holding pattern, awaiting the fates of two of their brightest stars: Anthony Rendon and Stephen Strasburg. What shook out couldn’t have been more on-brand for the pitching-focused Nats. Strasburg re-upped with the only professional organization he’s known, while Rendon joined Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, and Joe Maddon on an Angels’ team frontrunning for Best Smiles in the AL West, if not the division crown.

Following those twining, superstar sagas, the Nats embarked on a period of relative calm throughout much of December. While waiting in the hallway with the Twins and Braves for Josh Donaldson to make his final contract demands, Nats’ GM Mike Rizzo contented himself with bringing back as much of the championship gang as he could manage. Living legend Howie Kendrick will be back for three-to-five starts per week somewhere in the infield, Yan Gomes returns to block Patrick Corbin sliders and share in the catching duties with Kurt Suzuki, and even mid-season bullpen stabilizer Javy Guerra will get another crack to stick in the bullpen on a minor league deal. Ryan Zimmerman continues to wait in the shadows, certain to re-sign at some point, though how regularly Mr. National will see the field in 2020 is entirely unclear.

This week, however, the Nats grew tired of waiting for Donaldson and moved to add a trio of free agents. Asdrubal Cabrera is the most familiar new/old face. The man most-often charged with protecting Juan Soto in the lineup during 2019’s second half returns to Washington on a one-year, $2.5MM guarantee. Cabrera put up insane numbers in August and September for the Nats (.323/.404/.565). While he bonded nicely with the club in his second stint in the District, the Nats’ can hardly expect Cabrera to put up anything close to the Rendonian line he boasted over the season’s final two months. Somewhere between Kendrick, (presumably) Zimmerman, and top prospect Carter Kieboom, Cabrera represents a capable option to gather loose change at-bats between first, second, and third base.

But the Nationals added a rival to that infield mix as well, inking Starlin Castro to a somewhat surprising two-year, $12MM deal. Ten years into his big league career, Castro turns just 30-years-old in March while carrying an uninspiring .280/.319/.414 career line. The Nats plan to let Castro have second base until Kieboom or somebody else takes it from him, and while he fits an organization ethos that trusts veteran contributors more than the average big league team, it’s hard to get too excited about a guy whose only real elite skill has been volume. He doesn’t strike out a ton, but he won’t take walks, and neither his speed nor power elicit much awe.

Castro did absolutely rip left-handed pitching in 2019, and in the right light, Castro’s home/road, left/right and 1sthalf/2ndhalf splits can all point to a player who deserves more credit than I’m giving him. For instance, he hit .302/.334/.558 in the second half and .286/.332/.447 away from Marlins Park. Together, Cabrera and Castro give the Nats two relatively similar players whose contributions will have to be monitored, like your favorite sublet, on a month-to-month basis.

Perhaps the most unassailable move made in this past week, funny enough, is the addition of spin-rate-savant Will Harris. Nats’ fans no doubt already hold a fondness for Harris after he surrendered the World Series winning home run to Kendrick late in game seven. Years of playoff disappointment prior to 2019 should have those in the District well-prepared to look beyond the volatility of playoff results and appreciate Harris for what he is: one of the best relievers in the league. After all, Astros’ manager AJ Hinch is hardly a doofus, and quibble if you will about his decision to let $324MM man Gerrit Cole languish away in the bullpen while Harris and Kendrick put the foul pole to work – but his decision to pitch Harris in that moment was entirely defensible. That he wanted Harris on the hill should further brighten the hearts of Nats’ fans, even if the three-year, $24MM deal given him at age-35 might cause some seat-squirming. Still, this is a guy with a 2.36 ERA/2.99 FIP over the last five seasons, and he insures the Nats’ bullpen against further wear-and-tear on Sean Doolittle or stagnation from hard-throwing righty Tanner Rainey.

Donaldson could still find himself suiting up next to Trea Turner on the left side of the Nats’ infield, but Rizzo has historically stuck to his number with position players, and if Donaldson’s demands have stretched beyond his comfortability, don’t expect the disciplined Rizzo to panic. Cabrera, Castro and Harris may not be the cavalry Nats’ fans expected to ride in to defend their first ever championship, but they’re here to help all the same. The question is, do they?

(Poll link for app users)

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