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Archives for January 2020

Tigers Acquire Eric Haase, Designate Dario Agrazal

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The Tigers announced today that they have acquired catcher Eric Haase from the Indians for cash considerations. To create roster space, they designated righty Dario Agrazal for assignment.

Haase was recently designated by the Cleveland organization, so it’s not surprising to see him change hands. The 27-year-old has seen brief MLB action in each of the past two seasons. He turned in a power-heavy .226/.315/.517 batting line with 28 home runs in 401 Triple-A plate appearances in 2019.

Agrazal is himself back in DFA limbo after the Pirates designated and traded him to Detroit back in November. The 24-year-old received a long look in 2019 but managed only a 4.91 ERA with 5.0 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in his 73 1/3 frames.

Arbitration Breakdown: Josh Hader

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Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here.

Josh Hader just barely qualified for early arbitration eligibility as a Super Two, significantly boosting his career earning outlook. He did so on the heels of his first season as a full-time closer. Hader saved 37 games in 2019, after saving just 12 games in his career beforehand. However, Hader has consistently pitched in high leverage innings, accumulating 39 career holds, and has put up phenomenal strikeout numbers and a low ERA. In less than three full seasons, Hader has struck out 349 hitters in 240.2 innings and put up a 2.42 ERA. My model projects him to earn $4.6MM in his run through arbitration.

A typical comparable for Hader would be someone who had a full platform year as a closer, but only limited saves prior to that, while having a lower ERA and a lot of strikeouts. The closest comparable is probably Ken Giles two years ago. He had 34 platform saves (to Hader’s 37) and 65 career saves (to Hader’s 49). He struck out 336 hitters in his career, but just 83 in his platform year. Hader struck out 349 in his career, but had 138 in his platform year. Giles’ 2.30 platform year ERA was similar to Hader’s 2.62, and his career 2.43 ERA was almost exactly spot on Hader’s 2.42. Giles earned $4.6MM. Overall it is not clear which of Giles or Hader should earn more, which means the $4.6MM projection to match Giles is probably about right.

This is reinforced by the fact that the other three players in the last five years with 30 saves in their platform year and between 40 and 65 saves in their career all earned between $4.1 and $4.2MM, each back in 2016. Those were Hector Rendon, Cody Allen, and Jeurys Familia. They all had ERA in the mid 2’s as well, ranging from 2.42 to 2.82.

The one thing that sticks out about Hader beyond that list is his very high strikeout rate. That distinguishes him from all of these other relievers who fell short of triple-digit strikeouts in their platform year. Hader’s 138 strikeouts topped all four aforementioned closers.

Another avenue could be to ignore old-fashioned stats like saves and holds and see if anyone else has similar strikeout numbers out of the bullpen. Ultimately, this was limited. I looked for any reliever in the last five years who entered arbitration for the first time with at least 120 strikeouts in their platform year and 300 in their career. That only yielded Dellin Betances, who earned $3MM three years ago, despite only 22 career saves. (That came after he lost a high-stakes hearing in which he sought $5MM.) That would certainly provide a floor, but it is clear that Hader should be well above this anyway.

Ultimately, I think it is safe to assume he lands close to his $4.6MM projection. I could see some upside if his strikeouts are considered more heavily, but since relievers generally get paid based on saves and holds, I do not think he will exceed his projection by much.

Tigers Outright Brandon Dixon

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The Tigers announced today that infielder/outfielder Brandon Dixon has been outrighted to Triple-A. He cleared waivers after recently being designated for assignment.

Dixon, who’ll turn 28 later this month, got a lengthy look in 2019 in Detroit but wasn’t able to take advantage. Over 420 plate appearances, he hit 15 home runs and slashed just .248/.290/.435. If he’s to carve out a career in the majors, the former third-round pick will have to improve upon his strikeout (32.4%) and walk (5.0%) rates.

Brewers Extend Craig Counsell

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The Brewers have announced a new contract with manager Craig Counsell, as first reported by Robert Murray (Twitter link). It’s said to take the skipper through the 2023 season.

Counsell, 49, was already under contract through the 2020 campaign under the extension he reached in the fall of 2016. He was originally hired in the midst of the 2015 season, replacing the fired Ron Roenicke.

While he predates GM David Stearns, the two have seemingly worked together seamlessly in Milwaukee. Since a losing 2016 season, the organization has turned in three consecutive winners and two-straight postseason appearances.

The Brewers narrowly won the NL Central in 2018 and grabbed a Wild Card in the just-completed campaign. While the club has had some disappointment in the postseason — falling short in seven games against the Dodgers in the 2018 NLCS and then faltering late in the 2019 Wild Card game to the eventual World Series champion Nationals — that’s the fate of all but one team every season.

It’s inarguable that the Stearns-Counsell combination has been a successful one thus far. The latter has now been voted the runner-up in the National League Manager of the Year race in consecutive seasons.

Despite the good results, there’ll be loads of new faces in uniform when camp opens next month. The Brewers model under Stearns has been to swap out parts as needed to ensure cost-efficiency. But this winter has seen more turnover than before and left the club with a mix-and-match roster that’ll require rather active day-to-day management during the season. It’ll be Counsell’s job not only to meld the new pieces together in the clubhouse, but deploy them in the most advantageous manner in 2020.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

How To Set Up Notifications For Breaking MLB Hot Stove News

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Would you like to get a notification on your phone every time MLBTR publishes an important story?  It’s something we’ve offered for years for free and it’s easy to set up.

First, download our free five-star Trade Rumors app for iPhone/iPad or Android.  When you open it for the first time, it will ask you if you want to receive notifications.  I recommend choosing notifications for Top Stories, which is just the right amount for me.

But perhaps you’ve had the app for a while, you didn’t set up notifications initially, and you’d like to do so now.  The screen shots below will show you how to do that.  (Side note: if you’re reading this post in the app, the screen shots won’t actually be visible.  I know that’s odd.  But for now if you’re an app user and you want to view this post, go here in a web browser like Safari or Chrome).

Go to the home screen of the app.  It looks like this:

Go to the feed for which you want to set up notifications.  Maybe that’s an entire sport, maybe it’s a team, or maybe it’s a player.  In this case, we’ll set up notifications for the MLB Trade Rumors feed.  Just go to the slider icon to the right of the feed name, which I’ve circled in this screen shot:

After you tap that, you’ll see a pop-up with some choices:

The “Show on homescreen” option does not affect notifications.  It simply lets you decide whether that feed should show All Stories, or be limited to Top Stories, when you browse in the app.

The “New story notifications” section is what we’re looking for here.  Simply choose “Top Stories” or “All Stories,” and hit Done.

Generally, if you’ve got a sport-level feed (MLB, NBA, NFL, or NHL), All Stories would be too many notifications (15+ per day), and I’d recommend Top Stories.  If you’re curious, a Top Story is anything to which we’ve assigned the Newsstand category tag.  For a team or player-level feed, getting notifications for All Stories probably will not blow up your phone.

If you’ve followed this process but have not been receiving notifications you think you should have gotten, please go to the Settings icon in the upper right, scroll down to “Feature Requests or Help,” and send us a message about the issue.

Arbitration Breakdown: Trevor Bauer

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Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here.

Trevor Bauer’s arbitration cases have gone to a hearing two years in a row, and he has emerged victorious both times. However, his 2019 performance was weaker in several ways, and it remains to be seen how big a raise he can get over his $13MM salary from 2019 in his last year before reaching free agency.

My model does see him getting a sizable $5.6MM raise, mainly due to his career-high 213 innings and 253 strikeouts. After putting up a 2.21 ERA in 2018, Bauer regressed back to a 4.48 ERA in 2019 and actually had a losing record of 11-13 for the first time in four years. This was not merely bad luck either. His FIP worsened by nearly two runs as well, going from 2.44 to 4.34. Of course, with a very low HR/FB in 2018, his FIP benefited. But SIERA adjusts for this and still saw nearly a one-run deterioration from 3.21 to 4.14 for Bauer. Bauer walked a career high 82 hitters while allowing 34 home runs. Despite his higher strikeout total, his K/9 fell slightly from 11.3 to 10.7 in 2019.

Arbitration panels do not use sabermetric stats like FIP or SIERA very frequently, so Bauer’s case will largely come down to his robust 213 innings versus his 4.48 ERA. Finding similar comparables is tricky, but several potential pitchers do emerge.

If we focus on pitchers with at least 180 innings pitched but ERA’s over 4.0 who were entering arbitration for the third or fourth time, we get four pitchers in recent years that seem comparable. Each got raises between $3.0 and $3.55MM, obviously less than Bauer’s $5.6 million projection. Of course, none struck out hitters at anywhere near the clip that Bauer did. Patrick Corbin in 2018 had the highest total strikeouts of the bunch with 178 in 189.2 innings and a 4.03 ERA to go along with a 14-13 record. He got a $3.55MM raise. With fewer innings and way fewer strikeouts, Corbin’s case is clearly weaker. Tanner Roark’s 9-15, 4.34 performance in 180.1 innings earned him a similar raise last year ($3.53MM), while Andrew Cashner’s 184.2 innings and 6-16, 4.34 performance only got him $3.1MM back in 2016. Hector Santiago got a $3.0MM boost in 2017 after going 13-10 with a 4.70 ERA in 182 innings. Each of these four pitchers had a weaker case than Bauer, so his floor is probably in the mid-3’s.

If we flip things to look for pitchers with similar strikeout totals, only three guys with similar service time had 225 strikeouts going into their third of fourth year of arbitration during the last five years. David Price got a $5.75MM raise five years ago after a 15-12, 3.26 campaign, in which he threw 248.1 innings and struck out 271 batters. That case is probably somewhat stale though, even if Price clearly had a better case than Bauer does now. More recently, Gerrit Cole got a $6.75MM raise last year and Jacob deGrom had a $9.6MM raise. The 1.70 ERA that deGrom posted en route to a Cy Young Award clearly makes him a poor comparable for Bauer. Even Cole’s 2.88 ERA is a run and a half better than Bauer’s 4.48. Cole went 15-5 in 200.1 innings and struck out 276. Cole’s $6.75MM raise is obviously a ceiling.

It seems unlikely that Bauer will fall below Patrick Corbin’s $3.55MM raise or best Cole’s $6.75MM raise, and should land somewhere in between. To get the $5.6MM the model projects, he may need to argue that Price’s $5.75MM raise from 2015 is too stale to be relevant, which puts him somewhere in the vague range between Corbin and Cole. I suspect Bauer may not get quite up to that point, although if he does take his case to a panel again, he could quite easily get there if the Reds aim too low. Bauer will certainly be an interesting reference point for pitchers with significant innings and strikeout totals who put up mediocre traditional statistics in future years, since it is obvious that few such cases currently exist.

Reds Designate Nick Martini

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The Reds have designated outfielder Nick Martini for assignment, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon was among those to report on Twitter. His roster spot will go to just-signed outfielder Shogo Akiyama.

Martini was added in an offseason waiver claim. He might’ve been given a shot at carving out a reserve or platoon role in camp — and perhaps still could, if he clears waivers and depending upon the remaining course of the Reds’ offseason. But the addition of Akiyama, another southpaw swinging player who can handle center field, largely obviated the team’s need for Martini.

There’s a chance Martini will be claimed again. He has been an unstoppable on-base force at Triple-A in the past two seasons and had quite a nice showing in his 2018 debut with the Athletics. Martini doesn’t have much power and took a step back in limited opportunities last year. It’s important to note, too, that he has mostly been limited to facing right-handed pitching in the majors. But the general profile — a tough out with ample experience at all three outfield spots — holds some appeal.

Jose Miguel Fernandez Re-Signs With KBO’s Doosan Bears

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Former big league Infielder Jose Miguel Fernandez has signed on for another season with Korea’s Doosan Bears, per a team announcement (via Yonhap News; h/t to Dan Kurtz of MyKBO). It’s said to be a $450K deal with the potential to double the value via incentives.

Fernandez was among the notable players we highlighted earlier in the offseason in a series checking in on previous affiliated performers who moved to Asia’s top leagues. He had raked at Triple-A and hit well enough in a brief MLB debut in 2018, but evidently didn’t generate much interest on this side of the Pacific last winter.

Now 31 years of age, Fernandez was slow in reaching the professional ranks. He had a harder-than-usual time in navigating the geopolitical minefield facing all Cuban ballplayers. Despite defecting in the fall of 2014, he didn’t sign with the Dodgers until early 2017.

Fernandez is the quintessential professional hitter. He has some power but stands out most for his combination of exceptional plate discipline and ability to hit for average. He led the Korea Baseball Organization last year in hits while recording more walks (61) than strikeouts (54). Fernandez ended his first season in Korea’s top league with an excellent .344/.413/.483 batting line and 15 home runs over 645 plate appearances.

Marlins Focused On Adding Relievers

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Now that their deal with left fielder Corey Dickerson has been finalized, the Marlins plan to focus on adding to the bullpen, president of baseball operations Michael Hill indicated on a conference call Tuesday (Twitter link via Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald). Among the names the team is considering, SiriusXM’s Craig Mish reports, are Pedro Strop, Brandon Kintzler and Hector Rondon.

Miami has already added Dickerson, Jonathan Villar and Jesus Aguilar to a lineup that ranked 29th in the Majors in runs scored, 29th in on-base percentage and 30th in slugging percentage thus far in the offseason. They’ve also signed Francisco Cervelli to back up Jorge Alfaro and made a handful of minor league signings, headlined by Matt Kemp.

The lineup hasn’t exactly been built up into a powerhouse, but there’s little denying that it looks like a more robust collection of bats than the group trotted out in 2019. However, the bullpen has gone largely unaddressed to this point; the Marlins, rather, have subtracted more relievers from the organization than they’ve acquired. Control-challenged relievers like Tayron Guerrero, Tyler Kinley and Kyle Keller have all been jettisoned from the 40-man roster, much as Austin Brice was earlier today when making room for Dickerson.

Miami has added right-hander Yimi Garcia on a big league deal and righty Ryan Cook on a minor league pact, but the organization has otherwise been quiet when it comes to adding to the ’pen. Current options on the roster include right-handers Drew Steckenrider and Ryne Stanek as well as southpaws Jarlin Garcia and Adam Conley. Last year’s Opening Day starter, Jose Urena, lost his rotation spot and was moved to the bullpen late in 2019, and Hill indicated today that Urena will get another shot at claiming a bullpen role in 2020 (Twitter link via Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald)

Obviously, a grouping of Urena, Steckenrider, Stanek, Conley and both Garcias leaves plenty of room for potential augmentation. But the relief market has also thinned out considerably, with Strop, Kintzler and Rondon shifting from middle-tier options at the onset of free agency to some of the most appealing names yet to sign. This patient approach is often necessary for the Marlins or teams in similar rebuilding situations, as some free agents are hesitant to sign with a non-contending club early in the winter (barring an overpay). But as contending clubs spend their money and fill holes on the roster, the allure of high-leverage innings and a guaranteed salary with a rebuilding clubs only increases.

The Marlins did well to wait out the market and sign Sergio Romo to a $2.5MM contract last winter — a move that ultimately netted them first base prospect Lewin Diaz at the trade deadline. Whether it’s Strop, Kintzler, Rondon or another veteran arm, the Miami organization will be hoping for a similarly beneficial result in the coming weeks as they try to add to their stock of relievers on what’ll surely be a short-term arrangement.

Rangers To Sign Robinson Chirinos

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8:44pm: MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets that Chirinos is guaranteed $6.75MM on the deal: a $5.75MM salary in 2020 (which matches his 2019 salary), plus at least a $1MM buyout on a $6.5MM club option for the 2021 season.

8:36pm: Chirinos and the Rangers are in agreement on a one-year deal plus an option, tweets T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com.

8:28pm: The Rangers and free-agent catcher Robinson Chirinos have agreed to a reunion, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). The new contract is pending a physical. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported earlier tonight that the two sides were “inching closer” to a deal.

Robinson Chirinos | Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Chirinos, 35, just wrapped up a .238/.347/.443 showing with the Astros, swatting 17 home runs and 22 doubles in a career-high 366 plate appearances. Even if he takes a step back, Chirinos will provide a substantial offensive upgrade to a Rangers club that saw its catchers post a disastrous .193/.241/.298 batting line as a whole in 2019.

Texas made the somewhat surprising decision last winter to buy out a seemingly reasonable $4.5MM option over Chirinos. Texas, placing a greater emphasis on defense, moved to sign Jeff Mathis to a two-year, $6.25MM deal that yielded poor results in 2019. Chirinos, meanwhile, came out ahead from a financial standpoint. Texas paid him a $1MM buyout, and he went on to sign with the Astros for a $5.75MM guarantee. Between that deal and the option buyout, he took home a tidy $2.25MM more than he’d have earned had the Rangers simply picked up his option.

Now, Texas is on the hook for $3MM of Mathis’ salary in 2020 despite the fact that he turned in the worst offensive and defensive season of his career in 2019. Through 244 plate appearances, Mathis posted a stunning .158/.209/.224 batting line (11 OPS+, 2 wRC+). And just one year after leading all MLB catchers in Defensive Runs Saved  (17) and Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average (18.4), Mathis saw those numbers crater at -1 and -2.8, respectively.

The Rangers will have to make a call on what to do with Mathis and his remaining salary, although it’s possible that he could work as a backup to Chirinos. The younger Jose Trevino has a minor league option  remaining, so he could be sent to Triple-A to begin the season, particularly considering that he struggled considerably both in the Majors (.258/.272/.383 in 126 plate appearances) and in Triple-A (.226/.263/.336 in 156 plate appearances).

Given the dismal performances of Mathis, Trevino and infielder-turned-catcher-turned-infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa in 2019, it’s hardly a surprise that the Rangers prioritized catching help this winter. And while Chirinos isn’t exactly a standout defensive backstop, he did show some improvements in 2019 with Houston. He hasn’t excelled at controlling the running game since 2014, and that trend continued last year (21 percent caught-stealing rate), but Chirinos posted improved (albeit still below-average) framing marks and was the league’s best at blocking balls in the dirt, per Baseball Prospectus.

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