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Archives for January 2020

Nationals Avoid Arbitration With Michael A. Taylor

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The Nationals have avoided arbitration with outfielder Michael A. Taylor, as per reporter Robert Murray (Twitter link).  Taylor will make $3.325MM in guaranteed money next season, slightly above the $3.25MM projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.  Taylor can also make another $25K in bonuses should he reach 300 PA for the Nats next season.

Seen as a top-60 prospect headed into the 2015 season, Taylor has shown some flashes of potential (particularly during an impressive 2017 season) but has struggled to lock down anything beyond a fourth outfield role.  Taylor has hit only .240/.294/.393 over 1705 career plate appearances, and the end of his tenure in Washington seemed to be looming in the summer when he was optioned to the minors for over two months.

However, 2019 ended on a great note for both Taylor and the Nationals, as the outfielder re-emerged to make a big contribution to the club’s World Series run.  Taylor had a 1.010 OPS over 23 postseason plate appearances, including the solo homer that the Nats on the board in their 3-1 win over the Cardinals in Game Two of the NLCS.

Taylor still offers value to Washington as a fourth outfielder capable of solid glovework at all three positions, as well as elite speed.  Taylor turns 29 in March but is still controllable through the 2021 season in his fourth and final year of arbitration.  This fourth year arose as a result of his lengthy demotion, as Taylor finished the 2019 season with only four years and 129 days of service time.

Trea Turner, Roenis Elias, and Joe Ross are the three remaining arb-eligible Nationals who have yet to reach agreements with the team prior to tomorrow’s 11am CT deadline for exchanging arbitration figures.  You can follow along with all of the arb dealings on the MLBTR Arbitration Tracker.

Rays, Chaz Roe Avoid Arbitration

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The Rays and reliever Chaz Roe have avoided arbitration with an agreement worth $2,185,200, Jeff Passan of ESPN tweets. That’s in line with the $2.2MM salary MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected at the outset of the offseason.

The slider-heavy, right-handed Roe was a valuable member of the Rays’ bullpen over the previous two seasons. Most recently, Roe put up a 4.08 ERA/3.31 FIP with 11.47 strikeouts per nine and a 44.6 percent groundball rate across 51 innings in 2019. However, control was a problem for the 33-year-old Roe, who issued just under 5.5 walks per nine frames.

The upcoming season will be the penultimate arbitration-eligible year for Roe. He’ll remain a key part of a relief corps that stood out in 2019, when he, Emilio Pagan, Nick Anderson and Diego Castillo were among the playoff-bound Rays’ go-to options late in games.

Rays Acquire Jose Martinez, Randy Arozarena From Cardinals

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The Rays have acquired first baseman/outfielder Jose Martinez, outfielder Randy Arozarena, and the Cardinals’ Competitive Balance Round A draft pick in exchange for left-handed pitching prospect Matthew Liberatore, the Rays’ pick in Competitive Balance Round B, and a catching prospect from the lower levels of the minors, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link).  Edgardo Rodriguez is the catcher going to the Cardinals, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal tweets.  Passan reported earlier today that Liberatore was headed to St. Louis, with Rosenthal adding that the trade involved six assets and at least two draft picks.

Tampa Bay was known to be looking outfield depth beyond its starting trio of Austin Meadows, Kevin Kiermaier, and Hunter Renfroe, especially after the club non-tendered Guillermo Heredia, its primary fourth outfielder from 2019.  Heredia’s role will be filled by Arozarena, who also brings added potential and some strong hitting numbers in his native Cuba, in the minor leagues, and even in his brief 23-plate appearance cameo with the Cardinals last season.

An international signing in the summer of 2016, Arozarena has a .292/.377/.477 slash line and 38 homers over 1302 minor league PA.  MLB Pipeline ranked him as the tenth-best prospect in the St. Louis farm system, with a scouting report that expressed some concerns about Arozarena’s aggressiveness at the plate and on the bases, as well as his ability at “making swift adjustments at the plate.”  Nonetheless, Arozarena’s hitting approach has only delivered good results thus far, and his speed makes him a solid center field option at least in the near future, if he might be better suited for the corners down the road.

Jose MartinezMartinez is also technically a depth option for the Rays in the corner outfield, but given Martinez’s longstanding defensive issues, he has long been tabbed as an ideal candidate to play for an American League team with DH at-bats on offer.  The right-handed hitting Martinez will now join three left-handed hitters (Nate Lowe, Ji-Man Choi, and the newly-signed Yoshitomo Tsutsugo) in the first base/DH mix, though Tampa expects Tsutsugo to see some action at third base.

While it remains to be seen how the Rays will fully shuffle and adjust their lineups, Martinez’s primary role seems pretty simple — he’ll be called upon to mash southpaws.  The 31-year-old late bloomer has hit .331/.405/.570 with 15 homers over 298 career PA against left-handed pitching, and also solid career numbers against righties, though Martinez’s same-sided productivity declined last season.  With fielding no longer a concern, however, the Rays (who have been linked to Martinez on the rumor mill for well over a year) are hoping that Martinez can concentrate fully on being a force at the plate.

The Cardinals entered the offseason with a clear goal of reducing their surplus in the outfield, and between today’s trade and dealing Adolis Garcia to the Rangers last month, St. Louis has achieved that goal without making any significant impact on its 2020 roster.  Perhaps most importantly, the Cards were able to move their excess parts while picking up one of baseball’s more promising pitching prospects in Liberatore, whose credentials we detailed earlier today.

Dexter Fowler, Harrison Bader, Lane Thomas, Tyler O’Neill, and utilityman Tommy Edman all figure to play notable roles in the Cardinals’ outfield next season, with top prospect Dylan Carlson on the cusp of his MLB debut and utilitymen Rangel Ravelo and Yairo Munoz also capable of playing on the grass in a pinch.  It’s still possible St. Louis could further trade from this collection….or, perhaps, add to it.  The Cards have been linked to free agent outfielder Marcell Ozuna all winter long, and re-signing Ozuna would allow the club to put a proven everyday performer in the midst of an outfield group that, besides Fowler, is young and pretty inexperienced at the big league level.

The draft pick swap is also a major component of this deal, as Tampa Bay will now have the 38th overall selection in the 2020 draft and St. Louis moves to 66th overall.  (Here is the current draft order, as well as the outline of the Competitive Balance Round selection process.)  The Competitive Balance Round picks are the only types of draft selections that can be traded, and the Rays have now boosted their standing next June by almost a full round’s worth of picks.  The Cards may see their 28-slot drop as the cost of acquiring a major prospect like Liberatore, who likely wasn’t available for only Martinez and Arozarena.

The 19-year-old Rodriguez has hit .338/.389/.495 with six home runs over his first 244 PA as a professional, two seasons with the Rays’ teams in the Dominican Summer League and rookie-ball Gulf Coast League (though he missed over six weeks this season due to injury).  Signed out of Venezuela during the 2017-18 international signing period, Rodriguez was ranked prior to the 2019 season as the 53rd-best prospect in Tampa Bay’s system, as per Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen.  It remains to be seen if Rodriguez can remain as a catcher, though Longenhagen/McDaniels were impressed by his hitting ability.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Angels, Max Stassi Avoid Arbitration

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The Angels and catcher Max Stassi have avoided arbitration with an $800K agreement, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets. That’s the exact salary MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected for Stassi a few months back.

Stassi didn’t hit much in 2019 with the Astros and Angels, the latter of whom acquired him at the July trade deadline, and he underwent hip surgery in September. Nevertheless, the catcher-needy Angels have elected to keep him on their roster this offseason. The club recently added free agent Jason Castro, who will be its starting backstop in 2020, leaving the out-of-options Stassi as its primary backup.

Stassi, 28, isn’t far removed from an impressive all-around showing as an Astro in 2018. He slashed .226/.316/.394 (100 wRC+) while providing premium defense that year, though his offensive numbers cratered after the first couple months of the campaign. And last season was an offensive disaster for Stassi, owner of a .138/.211/.167 line across 147 trips to the plate. He did, however, remain a terrific defender, according to Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric, while throwing out a league-average 27 percent of would-be base thieves.

Cardinals Acquire Matt Liberatore

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6:16PM: Harrison Bader and Lane Thomas aren’t expected to be part of the trade, Passan reports.  Fowler also isn’t thought to be part of this deal, though he could eventually be on the move elsewhere since the Cardinals have been discussing him in other trade negotiations.

5:37PM: The trade is shaping up as a multi-player blockbuster, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter links) reports that the Cardinals and Rays are each sending three “pieces” to the other in the deal.  “At least two of those pieces are draft picks,” Rosenthal notes, indicating that Competitive Balance Round selections (the only type of draft picks that can be traded) are in play.  The Cards are slated to pick in Competitive Balance Round A following the first round of the draft, whereas the Rays draw after the second round in Competitive Balance Round B, so there is roughly a 30-slot gap between the two picks.

4:57PM: The Cardinals have discussed Tyler O’Neill with the Rays and other teams this offseason, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports, though there isn’t yet any indication that O’Neill could be involved in the Liberatore trade.

3:53PM: The Cardinals have acquired left-hander Matthew Liberatore from the Rays, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link).  The return headed back to Tampa Bay is expected to include at least one player from the Cards’ Major League roster, and hints at a very notable trade given Liberatore’s status as one of the top prospects in the Rays’ system.

Picked 16th overall in the 2018, Liberatore has gotten off to a solid start in his young career, with a 2.59 ERA, 9.2 K/9, and 2.57 K/BB rate over his first 111 professional innings.  That includes a 3.10 ERA over 78 1/3 IP at the A-ball level in 2019, though Liberatore missed a bit of time with a minor back injury.

It was a performance that did nothing to dim Liberatore’s stock in the eyes of evaluators, as the most recent prospect rankings from Baseball America (31st), Baseball Prospectus (37th), MLB.com (41st), and Fangraphs (63rd) all place Liberatore solidly among the sport’s top minor leaguers.  MLB Pipeline ranks Liberatore fourth on its list of the best left-handed pitching prospects, with a scouting report touting his potential for as many as three 60-grade pitches on the 20-80 scouting scale.  In fact, Liberatore’s fastball, changeup, and slider all earned a 55 grade from Pipeline, while his “swing-and-miss hammer” of a curveball gets a 60 grade.

Liberatore is only 20 years old, and at 6’5″ and 200 pounds, might still need to add some bulk to withstand the workload of a Major League starting pitcher.  He’ll now immediately become the most promising young arm in the St. Louis farm system, now that the likes of Jack Flaherty and Dakota Hudson have graduated to the big leagues, and Alex Reyes’ injury concerns continues to cloud his future.  Many of the Cardinals’ current top youngsters are position players, which could be addressed by whatever player or players are sent back to Tampa Bay.

As Passan notes, the Rays have been looking for outfield help, so it’s logical to guess that the outfielder-heavy Cards could be dealing from their logjam on the grass.  It’s probably safe to assume that the Rays aren’t taking on Dexter Fowler’s big contract (unless this is part of a much larger trade), but St. Louis has a wealth of younger outfielders that could be fits for Tampa Bay — Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader, Lane Thomas, Randy Arozarena, Jose Martinez, or utilityman Tommy Edman could all be part of this trade.  One can’t even rule out top prospect Dylan Carlson, as while the Cardinals have been resistant to offers, it would take a promising young arm like Liberatore to even get the Cards’ attention on a Carlson deal.  Still, St. Louis is probably less likely to deal a player who could help their team as early as 2020 in order to land a pitcher who is still at least a couple of years away.

Arbitration Breakdown: Mookie Betts

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Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. So far, we’ve previewed Josh Bell, Cody Bellinger, Francisco Lindor, Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger, George Springer, and Jonathan Villar. For these pieces, I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here. 

As first-year arbitration awards continue to grow with the revenue and payrolls in baseball today, they provide higher platforms through which arbitration records in later years can be more easily broken. Mookie Betts will go through the arbitration process one more time after earning $20.1MM including bonuses during his penultimate year through the arb process, putting him in line to potentially break Nolan Arenado’s record of $26MM his last time through arbitration. Betts’ potential salary is high enough that he has frequently been featured in trade rumors as the Red Sox seek to reset themselves below the luxury tax threshold in 2020.

Either way, Betts’ case is going to simultaneously take a large chunk of someone’s payroll while also being a relative bargain to similarly-producing free agents. After a historic season in 2018 in which Betts hit 32 home runs, stole 30 bases, and racked up an amazing slash line of .346/.438/.640, Betts had a slightly more pedestrian year — by his standards — in 2019. Betts batted .295 and hit 29 home runs while stealing 16 bases, while recording 80 RBI and a league-leading 135 runs scored.

The model uses the generally accurate fact that players’ salaries in subsequent years in arbitration are determined as raises based on their platform year production alone. So while Betts may not have had a historic season, he does have a good case for breaking Arenado’s record, thanks to Betts’ $20.1MM salary in 2019. My model projects a $7.6MM raise for 2020, which would land the Red Sox outfielder at $27.7MM.

Even coming down to earth in 2019, Betts still put up rare numbers. There are very few hitters who have reached their third year of arbitration eligibility with at least 25 home runs and double-digit stolen bases in their platform year — in the last five years, only four players hit both plateaus. Charlie Blackmon got a $6.7MM raise in 2018 after hitting .331 with 37 homers, 104 RBI, and 14 steals the prior year.

Although Blackmon’s batting average obviously bested Betts’ .295, the other three hitters had far lower averages. Todd Frazier hit .225 with 40 HR, 98 RBI, and 15 steals and got just a $3.75MM raise in 2017. Didi Gregorius hit .268/27/86 with 10 stolen bases and got a $3.5MM raise last year, while Aaron Hicks hit .248/27/79 with 11 stolen bases last year en route to a $3.2MM raise.  Still, the Red Sox could argue that Betts may deserve a smaller bump over Frazier, Gregorius, and Hicks, and potentially less than Blackmon’s $6.7MM.

Obviously, we are limiting the potential list of comparables by requiring double-digit stolen bases. A couple more recent names (both third basemen) emerge when dropping that requirement. Anthony Rendon got a $6.5MM raise in 2018 after putting up a solid .301/25/100 campaign — and that could easily serve as a benchmark for Betts. Arenado last year got an $8.25MM raise after a .297/38/110 season. Given that Arenado’s numbers were at Coors Field, Betts could certainly argue for that as a basis.

I suspect Betts would be able to successfully argue for at least topping Rendon’s $6.5MM, although Blackmon’s $6.7MM could be a ceiling. I could see Betts even getting up to an $8.25MM raise like Arenado did last year as well, though that might be more difficult. Based on this list of potential comps, the $5.9MM Betts would need to break Arenado’s record definitely seems doable if not guaranteed, and the model’s $7.6MM projection does seem out of reach either.

Blue Jays Avoid Arbitration With Brandon Drury

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The Blue Jays have avoided arbitration with infielder/outfielder Brandon Drury, agreeing to a one-year, $2.05MM deal for the 2020 season, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets.

MLBTR projected Drury for a $2.5MM arb figure, so he’ll get a significantly smaller raise than expected over his $1.3MM salary from the 2019 season.  Then again, Drury did little to enhance his value after a sub-replacement level (-0.6 fWAR, -0.2 bWAR) 2019 campaign that saw him hit only .218/.262/.380 with 15 home runs over 447 plate appearances.  This makes it consecutive negative-WAR seasons for Drury, following an abbreviated 26-game year with the Jays and Yankees in 2018.

Drury will now be fighting to keep a superutility role next year, hoping that his versatility can keep him on the roster long enough to revive his bat.  Drury spent most of his time at third base prior to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s promotion, and also saw action at second base, first base, both corner outfield slots, and five games at shortstop.

Ken Giles and Matt Shoemaker are Toronto’s two remaining arbitration-eligible players, as per MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker.  Teams have until 11am tomorrow to exchange figures with their arb-eligibles.  Giles is projected for an $8.4MM deal, and Shoemaker for a $3.8MM salary.

Pirates Designate Pablo Reyes For Assignment

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The Pirates have designated utilityman Pablo Reyes for assignment, the club announced.  The move creates roster space for Guillermo Heredia, whose one-year deal with the Bucs is now official.

Over his 89 career games as a Major Leaguer since the start of the 2018 season, Reyes has already played multiple games at all three outfield positions, second base, third base, and shortstop.  The bulk of that work has come as a corner outfielder, though Reyes’ versatility is a nice boost for a player who has yet to hit much at the MLB level — just a .229/.295/.368 slash line and five home runs over 220 plate appearances.

The 26-year-old Reyes has displayed more pop at the minor league level, hitting .278/.351/.421 over 2587 PA in Pittsburgh’s farm system.  This includes an .885 OPS over 191 PA at Triple-A Indianapolis last season, though as with many minor leaguers in 2019, it’s hard to tell if the increased numbers indicate genuine progress on Reyes’ part.  (The Triple-A level as a whole experienced an untold offensive surge after adopting the MLB baseball.)  Between Reyes’ raw numbers and his value as a utility player, however, there’s a chance another team might be interest in plucking him away from Pittsburgh on the waiver wire.

Pirates Sign Guillermo Heredia

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5:03PM: The Pirates officially announced the signing.

1:24PM: The Pirates have agreed to a deal with free-agent outfielder Guillermo Heredia, as first reported by Francys Romero of Los Mayores (Twitter link). It’s a Major League deal, MLB.com’s Adam Berry adds. Heredia is represented by Magnus Sports.

The 28-year-old Heredia was with the Rays in 2019 and spent the three prior seasons with Seattle. He’s seen action in 382 big league games and batted a combined .240/.317/.342 with 17 homers, 46 doubles, a triple and six stolen bases in 1101 plate appearances. While Heredia’s overall profile isn’t exactly eye-catching, he’s been a solid producer against left-handed pitching, hitting at a .274/.335/.401 clip in 487 plate appearances when holding the platoon advantage (including a sharp .281/.339/.456 slash in 2019).

Heredia is capable of handling all three outfield spots, and while he doesn’t have plus marks for his work in center field, both Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved feel he’s a strong defender in either corner slot. Despite playing in only a part-time role and being shuffled between the Majors and Triple-A, Heredia ranks 21st among 565 big league outfielders with 19 Outs Above Average dating back to 2016, per Statcast.

The Rays non-tendered Heredia back in December despite a rather timid $1.1MM projected salary in arbitration. He has three-plus years of Major League service time, meaning that the Pirates can control him via arbitration all the way through 2022 should they see fit. Just how he fits into the club’s outfield picture is largely dependent on the fate of Starling Marte, for whom the organization is listening to trade offers.

Rangers Sign Luis Garcia, James Jones To Minors Contracts

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The Rangers announced a series of pitching-related moves today, including the signings of right-hander Luis Garcia and southpaw James Jones to minor league contracts.  Garcia and Jones will be invited to the club’s Major League Spring Training camp.  In addition, recently-designated righty Jimmy Herget has been outrighted to Triple-A Nashville after clearing waivers, and right-hander Reed Garrett has been released so he can pursue a deal with Japan’s Seibu Lions.

Garcia, the most experienced member of the quartet, tossed 62 innings out of the Angels bullpen last season before opting for free agency rather than accept an outright assignment to Triple-A in October.  Garcia posted a 4.35 ERA, 8.3 K/9, and 1.73 K/BB rate, while taking a lot of damage from the home run ball, allowing 13 homers over his 62 frames of work.  Garcia also posted a career-low 47.2% grounder rate; still a respectable total, though a step down for a pitcher who never dropped below the 54.7% mark with the Phillies from 2013-17.  Garcia also posted a 48.4% grounder rate in 2018, so his days as a truly elite grounder specialist could be over.

Overall, Garcia has a 4.17 ERA, 8.2 K/9, and 1.77 K/BB rate over 306 2/3 innings over the last seven seasons.  He has held right-handed batters to a .238/.329/.370 slash line in that time, so he offers a bit of specialist value and durability to the Rangers should he win a job in their bullpen.

Jones will return for his fifth season in the Rangers organization as he continues the transition from outfielder to pitcher (yes, this is the same James Jones who saw action in center field for the Mariners in 2014-15).  This work was interrupted by a Tommy John surgery that cost him the entire 2017 season, though more recent results have shown promise.  Jones had a 2.67 ERA, 10.0 K/9, and 2.37 K/BB rate over 64 innings in 2019, split between Double-A (56 1/3 IP) and Triple-A (7 2/3 IP).  Jones seems likely to continue at Triple-A this year, as continues to slowly but surely take an unlikely path back to the majors.

Herget was designated when Texas acquired Adolis Garcia from the Cardinals almost three weeks ago, though Herget’s extended stay in DFA limbo was due to league offices being closed over the holiday season.  A sixth-round pick for the Reds in the 2015 draft, Herget made his Major League debut in the form of 6 1/3 relief innings for Cincinnati last season, before the Rangers claimed him off waivers in early December.

Garrett also got his first taste of MLB action in 2019, with an 8.22 ERA over 15 1/3 innings with the Tigers.  Garrett had some strong numbers in the minors in 2018, which prompted Detroit to select him in the Rule 5 Draft.  The righty’s lack of immediate success, however, prompted the Tigers to send Garrett back to the Rangers last May.  Garrett will now become the latest in an increasingly large number of players with MLB or high-minors experience (or, the proverbial “Quadruple-A” types) to head to Japan or South Korea in search of a larger salary or a more prominent role.

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