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Pirates, John Ryan Murphy Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Pirates have signed catcher John Ryan Murphy to a minor league contract with an invitation to Major League Spring Training, reports Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic (via Twitter). He’s represented by ISE Baseball.

Murphy, 28, spent the bulk of the 2019 season with the D-backs, although he finished out the year with a brief stint in the Braves organization. He’s a light-hitting backstop who’s generally considered to be among the game’s premier options in terms of pitch framing. Murphy was once considered a solid catching prospect with the Yankees and Twins, but to this point in his career he’s managed only a .219/.265/.357 batting line through 674 plate appearances. He hit well, particularly relative to other catchers, up through the Double-A level but owns a tepid .244/.306/.380 line through parts of five Triple-A seasons.

Pittsburgh’s catching mix is fairly open at the moment. Jacob Stallings is the favorite to handle starting duties after posting a respectable batting line and playing strong defense in 2019. Luke Maile joined the organization as a free agent and was given a 40-man roster spot, placing him in line to serve as the backup to Stallings. Murphy, though, will provide some competition for Maile (a high-end framer himself) and can otherwise serve as an experienced depth option in the upper minors if he’s unable to break camp with the team.

Arbitration Exchange Deadline Is Today

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There’s a noon ET deadline today for players and teams to exchange arbitration figures, meaning over the next few hours, there will be a landslide of settlements on one-year deals to avoid an arb hearing. Currently, Nolan Arenado’s $26MM figure from last winter stands as the record, although the expectation is that Mookie Betts will set a new benchmark. A few reminders:

  • Players are typically arbitration-eligible three times. Three years of Major League service time is the standard entry point for the arbitration process; a player remains arbitration-eligible until he either signs a multi-year deal buying out his arbitration seasons or until he accrues six years of MLB service time, thus qualifying him for free agency. Typically, players are given raises based on their prior year’s work. The arbitration process tends to focus on fairly basic stats: e.g. plate appearances, batting average, home runs and RBIs for hitters, as well as innings pitched, wins, ERA, saves, holds and strikeouts for pitchers.
  • The top 22 percent of players (in terms of total service time) with between two and three years of service are also eligible as “Super Two” players. These players are eligible for arbitration four times. Brewers reliever Josh Hader, for instance, became arbitration-eligible in this manner this winter.
  • Players who are non-tendered before reaching six years of service time can reenter the arbitration system. Last year, for example, the Angels non-tendered right-hander Matt Shoemaker when he had four-plus years of service. He signed a one-year free-agent deal with the Blue Jays, accrued a full year of service in 2019, and is currently arb-eligible as a player with between five and six years of service.
  • It’s become fairly standard for teams throughout the league to adopt a “file and trial” approach, meaning they’ll cease negotiating on one-year deals once salary figures are exchanged. Clubs that exchange figures with a player will sometimes continue working toward a multi-year deal, but it’s become increasingly rare for teams and players to negotiate one-year deals following the exchange deadline. Arbitration hearings typically begin in early February. Negotiations can continue right up until the point of a hearing.
  • Arbitration contracts, unless specifically negotiated otherwise, are non-guaranteed. Teams can cut any player who agrees to a standard arb deal and owe him only 30 days’ termination pay (roughly one-sixth the salary) up until halfway through Spring Training. Cutting him in the second half of Spring Training but before Opening Day entitles the player to 45 days of termination pay. Arbitration contracts are guaranteed come Opening Day. There are a few fully guaranteed arb deals every year. Royals lefty Mike Montgomery already agreed to one such pact earlier this offseason.

As is the case every offseason, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz has projected arbitration salaries for all of the eligible players. It’s a blanket, algorithm-based approach that doesn’t factor in context of unique or atypical cases, but the model has generally been an accurate barometer. For some higher-profile and/or atypical cases, Matt has gone into detail on why the model may or may not be at risk of missing; you can read these in his Arbitration Breakdown series. Also, as we do every year, we’re providing an Arbitration Tracker to follow along with settlements and, for those that reach the point of exchange, proposed salary figures. You can bookmark MLBTR’s 2020 Arbitration Tracker as a means of keeping up, and we’ll also be running a pair of posts to track settlements in the American League and National League throughout the morning.

Luhnow On Astros’ Remaining Offseason

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A quiet offseason for the Astros wasn’t exactly difficult to foresee, given their already sizable luxury-tax considerations, but it’s nevertheless a bit surprising that the team’s most notable expenditures have been two-year deals to re-sign Joe Smith ($8MM total) and Martin Maldonado ($7MM total). Last night’s acquisition of spin-rate savant Austin Pruitt added another arm to the rotation mix, but Houston fans surely are hoping for additional moves. President of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow, however, downplayed the likelihood of a splashier move (Twitter link via FOX 26’s Mark Berman).

“A couple of non-roster invitees, and we’re still going to look at Major League players that are out there in case there’s someone that’s a clear upgrade for us,” Luhnow said when asked about what’s next for his club. “For the Major League catching, we might sign another minor league catcher with Major League experience.”

For a team that has lost Gerrit Cole, Wade Miley, Will Harris, Robinson Chirinos, Hector Rondon and perhaps Collin McHugh (he remains unsigned) without adding any real certainty to the roster, that comment portends a rather measured approach. Luhnow, of course, didn’t expressly rule out a notable signing or trade, but with the Astros already sitting on a $216MM projected payroll with $233.5MM in luxury considerations (both numbers via Jason Martinez of Roster Resource), adding notable salary doesn’t seem particularly likely. Perhaps the ’Stros can still find a taker for some of Josh Reddick’s salary, but even ditching his full $13MM (unlikely) wouldn’t put Houston below the luxury barrier.

With regard to the lineup, Houston still looks utterly dominant. Maldonado doesn’t give much reason for optimism with the bat as the likely everyday catcher, but beyond him, Houston possesses a veritable murderer’s row. The Astros boast plus bats at every other lineup spot — particularly if ballyhooed prospect Kyle Tucker can build on his strong 2019 showing in an expanded role.

It’s the pitching staff that’s likely to be the source of the most scrutiny among fans and pundits alike. Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke comprise a formidable one-two punch atop the staff, and a healthy Lance McCullers Jr. makes a fine mid-rotation piece. It’s anyone’s guess as to how he’ll bounce back from 2018 Tommy John surgery, though, and we don’t yet know if there’ll be a workload restriction in place.

Looking past that trio, Luhnow said late in the season that right-hander Jose Urquidy will “likely” be in the 2020 rotation, and competitors for the final spot include Brad Peacock, Framber Valdez, Rogelio Armenteros and the newly acquired Pruitt. Top prospect Forrest Whitley could position himself for a look later this season, but he needs to bounce back from a disastrous 2019 season before that happens. Perhaps Houston can take a low-cost flier on an Alex Wood or Taijuan Walker reclamation, adding an affordable but high-upside arm to the mix — but that’s solely my own speculation.

A bullpen consisting of some combination of Ryan Pressly, Roberto Osuna, Smith, Josh James, Chris Devenski, Joe Biagini and Bryan Abreu could certainly emerge as a strength, although the ’Stros haven’t really addressed the lack of left-handed options. (Valdez would be one if he doesn’t land in the rotation.)

None of this is to say that the Astros are no longer the favorites in the AL West. Rotation questions aside, Houston won more games than any club in baseball in 2019, has two high-end starters atop its rotation, owns a solid mix of relievers and a possesses a deadly lineup. And any payroll crunch that exists could be alleviated next winter when Michael Brantley, Reddick, Yuli Gurriel, George Springer and Peacock (a combined $60MM+ in salary) are all free agents.

That said, unless the Astros can pull off a deal for a controllable rotation piece who’s not yet arbitration-eligible (or perhaps in his first year of arb), it’s hard to see a sizable upgrade being added to the 2019 mix in light of Luhnow’s comments and their current payroll/luxury tax status.

Seeking MLB Arbitration Expert For Paid Project

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As you may know, MLBTR has been publishing salary projections for arbitration eligible players for nine years, using an algorithm developed and maintained by economist Matt Swartz.

The traditional method of projecting the proper salary for arbitration eligible players does not involve an algorithm, instead focusing on comparable players.  As we’re always seeking to improve our own knowledge and projections, I hope to be trained on this traditional method.  I’m seeking a person with relevant experience at the MLB Labor Relations Department, MLB Players Association, teams, agencies, or third party consulting firms who is willing to teach me traditional arbitration projecting as a paid project.  We would collect the statistics needed and work through relevant examples.  Please note that I am not interested in learning how to argue cases at hearings, but rather in projecting the correct salary or salary range for any individual player.  If you’re interested in this paid project, please contact me at mlbarbitration@gmail.com and outline your relevant experience.

Arbitration Breakdown: Kris Bryant

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Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here.

The Cubs’ Kris Bryant reaches his third year of arbitration coming off a solid campaign in which he hit .281 with 31 home runs and knocked in 77 runs in 634 plate appearances. This comes at the heels of an injury-laden 2018 campaign in which the third baseman/outfielder only played 102 games and hit just 13 home runs. Bryant had received a record deal in 2018 for $10.85MM, after compiling both a Rookie of the Year Award and Most Valuable Player honors prior to reaching arbitration. However, Bryant’s disappointing 2018 only earned him a small $2.05MM raise. The model projects him to get a far more generous $5.9MM raise in 2020 after a healthy season with solid power.

Starting at an obviously very high $12.9MM salary in his second year of arbitration eligibility, it is possible that Bryant’s raise could be affected just by the base salary on which his raise will be added. So it would be useful to look for comparable players with high salary levels.

The other particularly notable distinction in Bryant’s number is that 77 RBI is a fairly small total for a hitter with 31 homers.  A good comp would be a player who hit for similar power, without knocking in many runs either.

Fellow third baseman Josh Donaldson emerges as a possibility with his $6MM in 2018. He hit .270/33/78, obviously quite similar to Bryant’s .282/31/77. However, Donaldson only had 496 plate appearances. Additionally, Donaldson was actually in his fourth year of arbitration eligibility (Bryant is in his third year). Furthermore, Donaldson was somewhat of a unique case coming off a two-year deal. However, $6MM seems at least plausible for Bryant.

Another third baseman to consider as a ceiling is Nolan Arenado last year. Arenado got an $8.25MM raise off a very high base salary of $17.75MM, after putting up a .297/38/110 line in 673 plate appearances. Despite the hitter’s park augmenting those numbers, Arenado’s case appeared to be stronger than Bryant’s, and $8.25MM is likely a ceiling for Bryant’s potential raise.

Didi Gregorius might be a potential floor. Back in 2018, the shortstop received a $3.15MM raise after hitting .287 with 25 home runs and 87 runs batted in. Gregorius played a harder position and actually topped Bryant on both batting average and runs batted in, but Bryant’s extra six home runs suggest Gregorius is probably a floor.

Another floor could be Manny Machado two years ago, as he hit .259 with 33 homers and 95 runs RBI, and got a $4.5MM increase.

Overall, I think the model gets Bryant’s raise about right. He should safely land between Machado’s $4.5MM raise and Arenado’s $8.25MM upgrade, and probably closer to Machado. Donaldson’s $6MM raise, his contractual differences notwithstanding, probably is a reasonable guess as to Bryant’s salary and is only $400K larger than the model projects.

Latest On Marcell Ozuna

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Free-agent outfielder Marcell Ozuna has seemingly identified his top two remaining suitors. Ozuna suggested to Hector Gomez of Deportivo Z 101 (hat tip to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale) that he’s deciding between his latest team, the Cardinals, and the Rangers. He indicated that the Cardinals are his preferred choice.

The 29-year-old Ozuna is coming off a solid two-season run in St. Louis, which acquired him from Miami entering 2018. Ozuna was then fresh off a 5.0-fWAR season with the Marlins. He wasn’t as effective as a Cardinal, but he did post a pair of productive years with the club. Ozuna put up 2.6 fWAR in 2019, when he slashed .243/.330/.474 with 29 home runs and a career-high 12 stolen bases over 549 plate appearances.

On the heels of Ozuna’s quality showing last season, the Cardinals began the winter by issuing him a $17.8MM qualifying offer, which he rejected. But it has been difficult to find another obvious suitor since then for Ozuna, and the Cardinals did just weaken their outfield depth by trading Jose Martinez and Randy Arozarena to the Rays.

Meanwhile, the Rangers have recently been connected to Ozuna and the other most prominent free-agent outfielder, Nicholas Castellanos. It seems the club has some leeriness in regards to the long-maligned defensive abilities of Castellanos, whom it apparently views as more of an infielder than an outfielder. But there’s no doubt that Ozuna’s an outfielder, and he’d fill the Rangers’ need in the grass in the wake of their Nomar Mazara trade with the White Sox. However, one of the big questions is whether the Rangers will pony up for Ozuna, who – along with forcing the team to cough up a substantial amount of money – would cost them their second-highest draft pick in 2020 because he turned down a QO.

Astros Acquire Austin Pruitt

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The Astros have acquired right-hander Austin Pruitt from the Rays in exchange for outfielder Cal Stevenson and righty Peyton Battenfield, per Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. Robert Murray first reported Stevenson was headed to the Rays. This is the second trade of Thursday night for the Rays, who previously swung a major deal with the Cardinals.

As the only player with major league experience in this trade, Pruitt’s the headliner. He’s also a Texas native, making this deal a homecoming of sorts. The 30-year-old saw action with the Rays in each season from 2017-19, though preventing runs was difficult for him. Pruitt posted a 4.87 ERA (with a much better 4.17 FIP) and recorded 6.63 K/9, 2.25 BB/9 and a 48.9 percent groundball rate over 199 2/3 innings. However, he ranked near the top of the majors in spin rate last year, and that’s something the Astros are known to greatly value.

Most of Pruitt’s major league work has come as a reliever so far, but the ninth-round pick from 2013 was once a full-time starter in the minors. And Pruitt could return to a rotation in the majors this year, as Astros president of baseball operations/general manager Jeff Luhnow told reporters (including McTaggart) that they intend “to give him a chance” to earn a rotation spot entering 2020. Unlike in the previous couple seasons, the Astros’ rotation has some question marks. Sure, Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke are great, but Gerrit Cole and Wade Miley are gone, and Lance McCullers Jr. is returning from Tommy John surgery. Brad Peacock and the relatively unproven Jose Urquidy could be the front-runners for the four and five positions in Houston’s starting staff.

The 23-year-old Stevenson didn’t last long with the Astros, who acquired him from the Blue Jays last July in a trade centering on right-hander Aaron Sanchez. Stevenson had a productive year at the High-A level between the two teams, as he slashed .288/.388/.384 with five home runs across 490 plate appearances.

A 10th-round pick of the Jays in 2018, FanGraphs’ Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen ranked Stevenson as the Astros’ 39th-best prospect earlier this week, citing his “great contact and on base skills.” Stevenson has a chance to amount to a fourth outfielder, according to McDaniel and Longenhagen.

Battenfield, 22, was a ninth-round draft selection last summer. He amassed 39 1/3 innings with the Astros’ low-A affiliate in 2019 and fared quite well, putting up a 1.60 ERA/2.21 FIP with 10.53 K/9 against 3.43 BB/9.

Astros Designate Dean Deetz

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The Astros have designated right-hander Dean Deetz for assignment, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com was among those to report. The move makes room for the Astros’ acquisition of fellow righty Austin Pruitt from the Rays.

The 26-year-old Deetz has been with the Astros since they used an 11th-round pick on him in 2014. Deetz had a brief, 3 1/3-inning debut with the Astros in 2018, but he has otherwise spent the past several years in the minors. While Deetz was lights-out at the Triple-A level in 2018, when he posted a meager .79 ERA (with a worse but still-impressive 3.04 FIP) across 34 innings, last season was far more difficult.

Despite striking out 13.5 batters per nine in 2019, Deetz struggled to a horrid 7.15 ERA/7.38 FIP over another 34 frames. He walked almost 10 batters per nine and recorded a whopping 34.8 percent home run-to-fly ball rate in that span.

Reds Have Shown Interest In Corey Seager

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The Reds came into the winter ripe for an upgrade at shortstop, but they haven’t done much at the position thus far. The club’s biggest move there has been picking up light-hitting veteran Freddy Galvis’ $5.5MM option. As things stand, Galvis is slated to enter 2020 as the Reds’ starter at short, though they have their sights set on a much more notable option. Cincinnati has “shown interest in” the Dodgers’ Corey Seager throughout the offseason, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes (subscription link).

There is no indication the Dodgers are about to trade Seager, nor is it clear what the Reds would be willing to give up for him. No doubt, though, he’d cost a significant amount in assets. Seager, who debuted in 2015, won NL Rookie of the Year honors the next season, has earned a pair of All-Star nods, and has established himself as one of the game’s most well-rounded shortstops. While the past two seasons were injury-truncated campaigns for Seager, the 25-year-old nonetheless put up 3.3 fWAR and hit .272/.335/.483 with 19 home runs across 541 plate appearances in 2019.

Any team acquiring Seager would be getting a player with two arbitration-eligible seasons left, not to mention someone who’s projected to rake in a more-than-reasonable $7.1MM in 2020. The Dodgers – despite a fairly quiet offseason so far – continue to have the makings of an elite team, so there’s no pressure on their part to give up Seager. That said, dealing Seager would bring back a valuable return that could help LA in another area, and it would free up short for super-prospect Gavin Lux or, in a less probable scenario, the Indians’ Francisco Lindor. The Dodgers have shown interest in Lindor, but if we’re to believe Indians brass, it’s unlikely he’ll change homes prior to the season.

Angels, Cam Bedrosian Avoid Arbitration

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The Angels and right-handed reliever Cam Bedrosian have avoided arbitration with a $2.8MM settlement, Robert Murray reports. That’s the same salary MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected for Bedrosian in October.

At times, the 28-year-old Bedrosian has been a downright excellent late-game choice for the Angels since he made his major league debut in 2014. Bedrosian was at his best in 2016, a 40 1/3-innning showing in which he logged a near-spotless 1.12 ERA/2.13 FIP. He wasn’t that good in 2019, but Bedrosian did manage a solid 3.23 ERA/3.83 FIP with 9.39 K/9, 3.23 BB/9 and a 47.6 percent groundball rate over 61 1/3 innings, despite a career-low average fastball velocity of 93 mph.

Bedrosian, who has one more arbitration-eligible season left after this one, will once again be an important part of the Angels’ bullpen in 2020. The team itself has undergone major changes in the past couple months, but its bullpen looks largely the same.

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