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2020-21 Offseason Outlook

Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners

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With an enviable group of high-end prospects fast approaching the Majors, we could see the Mariners begin to add some pieces in a shift back to a win-now mindset.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Marco Gonzales, LHP: $29MM through 2023
  • Evan White, 1B: $22.7MM through 2025 (includes buyout of 2026 option; contract also contains options for 2027, 2028)
  • Kyle Seager, 3B: $18MM through 2021
  • Yusei Kikuchi, LHP: $15MM through 2021 (club must decide on four-year, $56MM extension after 2021; Kikuchi can otherwise exercise $13MM player option)
  • Kendall Graveman, RHP: $1.25MM through 2021

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

  • Declined $3.5MM buyout on RHP Kendall Graveman (paid $500K buyout, re-signed Graveman to one-year, $1.25MM deal the next day)

Free Agents

We’re only two years removed from Seattle general manager Jerry Dipoto’s pledge to step back and “reimagine” his roster, and the organizational turnaround has been remarkable. The Mariners have gone from one of the game’s oldest teams to one if its youngest, and what was once a barren farm system has been rapidly built into one of the game’s more enviable collections of young talent. Interesting young players have bubbled up to the MLB level, and reinforcements are on the horizon in droves.

It’s a promising enough outlook that Dipoto said following a near-miss of the final Wild Card spot in 2020’s expanded playoff format that he doesn’t believe a postseason bid next year is unrealistic. It’ll take some additions, of course, but the Mariners are surely more focused on whether their young core will take continued steps forward, so we’ll start with a look around the roster.

Former first-rounder Evan White batted just .176/.252/.346 in his debut effort, but he skipped Triple-A entirely en route to the Majors and showed some pop (eight homers) while also securing the first of what is expected to be many Gold Gloves at first base. Shed Long Jr. struggled while playing through a stress fracture in his leg, but he’ll be healthy next year and the Mariners picked up another second base option at the trade deadline in Ty France. Utilityman Dylan Moore turned in a .255/.358/.496 slash and could push for a bigger role. J.P. Crawford remains a work in progress at the plate but joined White in being named an AL Gold Glover. Kyle Seager, the elder statesman at the hot corner, enjoyed a resurgent 2020 season.

The outfield is the area of greatest hope for the M’s, with Kyle Lewis a favorite to be named 2020 Rookie of the Year. The club expects Mitch Haniger back after a grueling series of fluke injuries wiped out most of 2019 and his entire 2020 season. There’s no shortage of options to keep the seat warm in left field until uber-prospect Jarred Kelenic arrives on the scene — which should happen no later than next June. Fellow top prospect Julio Rodriguez won’t be far behind, and the club added well-regarded outfield prospect Taylor Trammell in the same trade that netted France.

Also in that trade, which sent Austin Nola to San Diego, was young catcher Luis Torrens, who impressed in his Mariners debut. Veteran Tom Murphy should be healthy in ’21, giving the club an experience complement. Should either falter, 23-year-old prospect Cal Raleigh is on the cusp of MLB readiness himself.

With all that in mind, the Mariners don’t need to make much of a push to add a bat this winter, although there could certainly be some value plays that present themselves. And if Dipoto is indeed serious about his hope to push for a playoff bid in 2021, it’s fun to think about the Mariners as a dark-horse candidate for a reunion with DH Nelson Cruz. If not him, the M’s certainly look like a viable landing spot for Marcell Ozuna, although lucrative multi-year deals for free agents are something Dipoto has tended to avoid in recent years.

If there’s one place the Mariners will look to add, the bullpen is the best bet. The Mariners already struck a deal to keep Graveman, who struggled as a starter and then hit the IL when a benign bone tumor was discovered in his neck. He returned as a reliever and impressed with a 95 mph sinker that netted him his new deal. Dipoto is on record as saying he wants to add as many as four relievers this winter, although he cautioned that he might not chase marquee names.

Liam Hendriks is the top arm on this winter’s market but could be too lavish an expenditure. Ditto for resurgent closer Trevor Rosenthal and Seattle native Trevor May, although it’s possible that what is expected to be a depressed market for relievers could cause some higher-profile names to fall more into the price range Dipoto had in mind at the time of those comments. He and every other GM passed on Brad Hand at a year and $10MM on waivers, but any of Hand, May, Rosenthal or Blake Treinen makes sense as the primary bullpen splash here. It stands to reason that Dipoto will check in on virtually the entire free-agent bullpen market, and don’t rule out a trade or trades that net some relief help.

In the rotation, the Mariners have already made clear that they plan to continue utilizing a six-man group. Marco Gonzales and Justus Sheffield more than earned their spots in 2020. Some will raise an eyebrow to see a vote of confidence in left-hander Yusei Kikuchi here, but it should be noted that in addition to a contract that ensures him a spot, he actually pitched better than his ERA would otherwise suggest.

Kikuchi still issued a few too many free passes, but a 47-to-20 K/BB ratio, 0.57 HR/9 and a 52 percent ground-ball rate in 47 innings are all solid. Indeed, he logged a 3.30 FIP and 3.78 xFIP but was done in by a bizarrely low 59.9 percent strand rate. Kikuchi’s heater also ticked upwards markedly in 2020, as did his swinging-strike rate. He looks like a potential breakout candidate in 2021, and his contract alone will ensure he gets a chance to prove it.

Beyond that trio, there’s room for additions here as well. Justin Dunn, acquired alongside Kelenic, is a former top 100 prospect who’s shown flashes of promise but could be better suited for bullpen work. Ljay Newsome and waiver claim Nick Margevicius give Seattle some additional options to start games, and the club has drafted three consecutive big-name college starters with its past three top picks: Logan Gilbert in 2018, George Kirby in 2019 and Emerson Hancock in 2020. All are highly regarded, and Gilbert could debut as soon as 2021.

Still, there’s enough uncertainty in this mix that the Mariners could explore outside additions. Dipoto made clear after trading Taijuan Walker to the Blue Jays that he hoped to discuss another reunion with the 28-year-old righty this winter. Our Top 50 free agent rankings contain a bevy of options we expect to sign one- and two-year deals in free agency this year, and it makes sense for the Mariners to go shopping in that general price range.

It’s certainly arguable that they could be poised to make a bigger splash, although we’ve not seen Dipoto make such a move since coming to Seattle. Still, with just $74MM on next year’s books and a middling $7.15MM on the 2022 payroll, the Mariners are as sensible a dark horse as you could pick to make a significant move. They even have the long-term payroll freedom to sign Trevor Bauer if they see fit, although that would obviously still register as a major surprise. More realistically, Marcus Stroman’s grounder-heavy arsenal would pair well with Seattle’s premium infield defense if the M’s wanted to make a big rotation move.

These are bigger names than Mariners fans should expect, given Dipoto’s track record in Seattle, but the point remains that they could fit just about any contract they want onto the long-term books. That’ll be worth bearing in mind on the trade market, too, and we know that Dipoto is never afraid to jump into that arena.

It’s also interesting to look at the context of the American League West. As the Mariners prepare to emerge from their accelerated rebuild, we see the Rangers looking to pare payroll and striving to get younger (aka — a rebuild). The Astros could lose George Springer, Michael Brantley and others to free agency this winter and will be without Justin Verlander for most or all of the 2021 season. The Angels will reload and take another shot, but they’ve struggled to field a competent pitching staff in support of Mike Trout for years. The A’s look like they’ll be a threat, but in a broad sense, this division isn’t the insurmountable powerhouse it was a few years back when the ’Stros were running roughshod over a series of clearly inferior clubs.

At the end of the day, none of this means that the Mariners are in line for a major spending spree. However, their overwhelming payroll flexibility gives them the opportunity to take advantage of a market that most free agents will find rather harsh.

At minimum, the Mariners should be able to be more aggressive than their peers on the bullpen arms they deem to be the best of the bunch. And if Dipoto & Co. wish to get more aggressive, a club that only has Gonzales’ $5.75MM salary and White’s $1.4MM salary on the 2022 books should be able to outspend rival teams on bigger-ticket items. It’s never a dull offseason for Jerry Dipoto, but this winter has the potential to be a fun one for Mariners fans.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

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With a reduced payroll looming and many core pieces entering contract years, will the Cubs finally engineer a shake-up?

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players

This year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

  • Exercised $16.5MM club option on 1B Anthony Rizzo
  • Declined $25MM club option on SP Jon Lester (paid $10MM buyout)
  • Declined $3.5MM club option on IF Daniel Descalso (paid $1MM buyout)

Free Agents

Though the Cubs won the NL Central in the strange 60-game 2020 season, their season ended in disappointment just as it did in 2018 and 2019.  This time, it was a playoff sweep at the hands of the Marlins.  Most of the Cubs’ offensive core failed to show up in 2020.  Here’s Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein with a quote that might as well have come from the ’18 or ’19 post-mortem press conferences:

Clearly, some change is warranted and necessary.  Simply hoping for a better outcome moving forward doesn’t seem like a thoughtful approach. Embracing some change, even significant change, is warranted.

It’s remarkable how little the Cubs’ group of position players has turned over since they won the World Series in 2016.  Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber, Willson Contreras, Jason Heyward — they’re all still here.  Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, and Schwarber are each now down to one year of control.  Epstein’s contract will be up as well, and 2021 is widely expected to be his last hurrah with the Cubs before Jed Hoyer moves into the top chair in the front office.  Epstein has avoided change for the sake of change, but this is his last chance to shake up the team and try something different.

Any Cubs shakeup will come against the backdrop of financial austerity, with the team having laid off 100-plus employees, according to Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic.  And while the pandemic will be the driver of the Cubs’ expected player payroll reduction, it’s not as if they were spending any money in the two previous offseasons.  If you’re looking for potential free-agent targets, focus on players at the bottom of our Top 50 Free Agents list, unless the club dumps salary first.

So once again, the winter is all about trade speculation for Cubs fans.  The problem?  Likely trade candidates Bryant and Schwarber had lousy years with the bat, and Baez was particularly awful.  The samples are small.  Bryant’s 147 plate appearances would have represented less than a quarter of a season for him based on the 671 he averaged from 2015-17.  No one thinks Bryant is now a below-average hitter, given a five-year track record of success before 2020.  From a club standpoint, the down year will at least prevent his arbitration salary from climbing much higher than the $18.6MM he was supposed to earn in a full 2020.  But even though it was just 147 plate appearances, trading Bryant now is still selling low.  At a time when most teams are expected to reduce payroll, who wants to take on roughly $20MM for Bryant while also giving up good players?

I explored specific team matches for Bryant in this post.  You can identify about a half-dozen clubs that could work.  The Cubs are between a rock and a hard place with Bryant, though.  If the Cubs expect Bryant to put up a 4 WAR season in 2021, but no one’s offering much beyond salary relief, they should just keep him.  But if they keep him, they cut off a major avenue for making a significant change to the team.

We should also take a moment to discuss the possibility of the Cubs non-tendering Bryant on December 2nd, which Mooney and Sharma said recently “probably can’t be totally dismissed out of hand because the Cubs have shown us how they are managing the downturn.”  As they wrote, this would be an “embarrassment” and a “worst-case scenario.”  If the Cubs exhaust all trade scenarios and don’t want to commit themselves to Bryant at around $20MM, it is an avenue they could take, however unlikely.  We did just see 29 teams pass on Brad Hand at one year and $10MM.  If no one is willing to take Bryant at his salary, the Cubs’ choice would come down to keeping him or cutting him.  They could also consider cutting Bryant or Schwarber during Spring Training, but that would require at least 30 days termination pay and would put the player in a difficult spot.

Schwarber presents a lesser version of the same dilemma.  He posted a 90 wRC+ in 224 plate appearances, but it’s not too hard to picture him returning to the 115-120 range in 2021 as a 28-year-old next year.  If he does, his $7MM salary could be a bargain.  He’s still more replaceable than Bryant, which is why I wouldn’t rule out a non-tender for Schwarber either if the Cubs can’t find a trade partner prior to December 2nd.  I’m not optimistic about the Cubs finding a team willing to give up anything of note for a left fielder/designated hitter, particularly with Joc Pederson and Michael Brantley available in free agency and Eddie Rosario in trade (and possibly being non-tendered himself).  Brantley, a much better contact hitter than Schwarber, would actually be an interesting choice to replace him for the Cubs.  I’m not sure I can see the Cubs unloading Schwarber’s $7MM to potentially sign Brantley for twice as much, however.

With Baez, a contract extension could be more likely than a trade.  He’s a popular, entertaining player with a desire to stay.  I can see fans being disappointed if the Cubs keep Bryant and Schwarber, trade them for an uninspiring return, or non-tender them for nothing.  A Baez extension could restore some goodwill.  Figuring out a fair number during a pandemic for a player coming off a bad year could make an extension difficult for Baez, however.  The Cubs have already extended some goodwill toward face of the franchise Anthony Rizzo, exercising his $16.5MM club option after a 103 wRC+ performance.  It’s hard to picture Rizzo in any other uniform, but a new contract would have to be hammered out to retain him beyond ’21.

The Cubs have several solid building blocks in place through 2023 in Darvish, Hendricks, and Happ.  They’ve got Contreras under control through ’22.  All options will likely be on the table in terms of trades, and these are the players with trade value.  Contreras is coming off a solid year, and getting his age 29-30 seasons would likely be appealing to the runners-up for J.T. Realmuto.  Plus, Contreras won’t cost $20MM+ like Realmuto will.  The Cubs could trim $7MM in payroll if they exchange Contreras for pre-arbitration players.  The Marlins, Mets, Phillies, Rays, and Yankees could be interesting trade partners.  If they trade Contreras, the Cubs might be content to plug in Victor Caratini as their starter behind the dish.

Similarly, the Cubs could look to get out of their commitment to Darvish with his value at a high point.  They wouldn’t be able to find a Cy Young-caliber pitcher to replace him, but they could use some of the savings for veteran free agents while also bringing in quality minimum-salary players in the trade.  Considering painful scenarios like these is the reality of the 2021 Cubs.

With Jon Lester, Jose Quintana, and Tyler Chatwood reaching free agency, the Cubs figure to import at least one starting pitcher this winter and possibly two.  They’ve got Adbert Alzolay and Alec Mills slated behind Darvish and Hendricks, but the team clearly needs more.  Interest in a Lester reunion is mutual, though the Cubs may seek more upside than the veteran southpaw can offer.  One possible answer would be to find the pitching equivalent of Bryant or Schwarber – an arbitration eligible player with limited control coming off a down year –  and broker a trade.  Such a deal could be struck prior to the December 2nd non-tender deadline, particularly in the case of Schwarber.

On the other hand, Epstein spoke about “thread[ing] the needle and improv[ing] in 2021 while also setting ourselves up for the long-term future,” which suggests he’d like prefer to swap contract year players for ones with multiple years of control.  That makes sense in theory, but as I’ve been saying, Bryant and Schwarber don’t seem to have a lot of trade value.  Look at the minimal return the Indians received for a $17.5MM Corey Kluber after a lost 2019 season.  And that was with the Rangers at least having the chance to get two years of Kluber, who had an expensive option for 2021 (that was bought out due to injury).  That’s why trading Contreras, Darvish, Hendricks, or Happ might be Epstein’s best way to thread the needle.

The Cubs’ bullpen is also in need of reinforcements.  The pitcher they put in the highest-leverage situations, Jeremy Jeffress, is a free agent.  Much has been made of Craig Kimbrel’s final 14 appearances of the season, in which he posted a 1.42 ERA with a 53.1 K%, 14.3 BB%, and no home runs allowed.  The list of 60+ inning relief seasons from 2015-19 in which a pitcher walked at least 14% of batters faced runs just seven-deep: Brandon Workman, Jeurys Familia, Adam Ottavino, Steven Brault, Reyes Moronta, Carl Edwards Jr., and Kyle Barraclough.  The truth is that if you issue free passes to batters at the rate Kimbrel did in the “good” portion of his 2020 season, you’re walking a tightrope that few have found sustainable.

The Cubs’ most reliable reliever might be Rowan Wick, who has strung together 50 2/3 innings of 2.66 ERA ball since joining the team in a November 2018 trade.  I can picture Ryan Tepera sticking around, though he walked a career-worst 13.5% of batters faced for the Cubs this year.  The Cubs’ other potential bullpen holdovers seem even more fungible.  I’m not yet convinced in the Cubs’ ability to grab castoff relievers on the cheap, run them through their Pitch Lab, and create an above-average bullpen.  One-year deals should abound for free agent relievers this winter, and the Cubs should set their sights higher than the scrap heap.

Epstein’s legacy in Chicago is secure, and he’s likely headed for the Hall of Fame one day.  But for a big-market, high-payroll team that’s made the playoffs five times in the last six seasons, fans can’t help but feel disappointed with one championship.  In positioning the 2021 Cubs for one last run, Epstein faces one of his greatest challenges.

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Angels

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The 2020 campaign was another disappointment for the Angels, who finished under .500 for the fifth straight year and expanded their playoff drought to six seasons. General manager Billy Eppler lost his job as a result, and the Angels are now searching for his replacement. Despite the Angels’ recent struggles, the next GM will inherit a high-payroll club with some blue-chip talent on its roster.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Free Agents

Led by the foremost position player tandem in baseball — center fielder Mike Trout and third baseman Anthony Rendon — the Angels fielded an above-average offense in 2020, ranking ninth in runs and 11th in wRC+. The problem is that the Angels couldn’t keep runs off the board, which has been the case far too often during their years-long skid. Their pitching staff tied for the fifth-worst ERA in baseball, and while it did fare better with the game’s 17th-ranked FIP, that’s probably not of much comfort to the Angels or their long-suffering fans.

As this offseason gets underway, the Angels are once again going to have search for starting help. That said, their rotation does appear to have at least a few quality pieces in place. Former Oriole Dylan Bundy broke out in 2020, his first season as an Angel; Andrew Heaney turned in a solid and healthy season; Griffin Canning performed well in his second year; and Jaime Barria rebounded over a small sample of starts. However, the Angels didn’t get much else from their rotation, in part because Shohei Ohtani was barely a factor for the second straight season. Opposing offenses clobbered Ohtani over two appearances, and he didn’t pitch after Aug. 2 because of a flexor strain in his right arm.

Ohtani has thrown just 53 1/3 innings since he debuted in 2018 and a grand total of 1 2/3 frames dating back to 2019. It’s going to be hard to count on him going forward, though the Angels figure to at least give the gifted Ohtani another opportunity in 2021. That could even come as part of a six-man rotation, which he’s accustomed to from his days in Japan.

If the Angels do experiment with a six-man rotation, it could up their chances of signing the offseason’s No. 1 free agent, Trevor Bauer. Coming off a potential NL Cy Young-winning season with the Reds, Bauer has expressed interest in pitching every fourth day. The Southern California native may be open to doing so for the Angels, but that’s assuming they’re going to pursue him and add yet another big contract to their books. It’s also unclear whether Bauer would even want to pitch for the struggling Angels, considering the 29-year-old has made it clear he’d like to play for a winner on an annual basis. It’s also worth noting that Bauer has had differences in the past with Angels pitching coach Mickey Callaway, who held the same position when the two were in Cleveland.

As Ben Reiter wrote for Sports Illustrated in 2019: “A few years ago, Bauer says, Mickey Callaway—then the Tribe’s pitching coach, now the Mets’ manager—berated him during batting practice for nearly an hour for refusing to throw more fastballs. Callaway had a point: Bauer’s career ERA was around 4.50. Bauer had a point too. “My process has been the same the entire time,” he says. “I’m going to try to find every single way to do better, and I’ve probably researched it more than you have. Don’t tell me what I do and don’t know without some good f—ing data behind it.”

That doesn’t necessarily rule the Angels out for Bauer, though it’s at least worth keeping in mind. In the event the Angels don’t get Bauer, there will be at least a few other capable starters available (albeit less exciting ones). Beginning with a trade possibility, the Rangers’ Lance Lynn would give the Angels some much-needed stability near the top of their rotation. Of course, reeling in Lynn would require the Angels to pry him from a division rival.

Free agency features plenty of other well-known names after Bauer, but most come with their share of questions. Marcus Stroman, Kevin Gausman, Masahiro Tanaka and Jake Odorizzi could each pull in fairly lucrative deals for multiple years, while there are a slew of one- or two-year possibilities including Jose Quintana, James Paxton, Taijuan Walker, ex-Angel Garrett Richards, Corey Kluber, Mike Minor, Adam Wainwright, Cole Hamels and Jon Lester. Some members of that group happen to have past connections to the Angels’ coaching staff. Quintana, Hamels and Lester were in the Cubs’ rotation when Joe Maddon was their manager, while Kluber was a two-time Cy Young winner in Cleveland when Callaway was the Indians’ pitching coach.

Just as the Angels figure to address their rotation this winter, their bullpen is also likely to be a focus. Their top reliever, Mike Mayers, is returning, but help is needed otherwise — especially from the left side. With that in mind, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them pursue free agents such as Brad Hand and Jake McGee (who played under Maddon in Tampa Bay). The right side has an even larger selection, including Liam Hendriks, Trevor May, Trevor Rosenthal, Alex Colome (he was also with Maddon as a Ray), Mark Melancon and Shane Greene. The very fact that Mayers, a Nov. 2019 waiver claim who came to the organization with a career 7.03 ERA, emerged as their most reliable reliever in 2020 speaks to the need to supplement this group.

Turning to the offensive side, most of the Angels’ regulars for 2020 looks to be in place. Trout and Rendon will continue to man their positions, while David Fletcher will have a starting spot somewhere. The Angels are stuck with first baseman Albert Pujols and left fielder Justin Upton because of their contracts, so they’ll continue to get regular playing time (Jared Walsh will rejoin Pujols at first). Ohtani should continue as their option at DH. At catcher, the Angels are unlikely to pursue a new starter to replace Max Stassi, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic. Stassi did undergo hip surgery in October, which could call his Opening Day availability into question. If it does, the Angels might at least make a depth move there and pair that player with Anthony Bemboom as they await Stassi’s return.

The Angels at least seem likely to address their middle infield from the outside, as they’re losing starting shortstop Andrelton Simmons to free agency. The club does appear to have several viable outside options, though, considering Fletcher is versatile enough to hold down second base or short. If he plays second, they can peruse the trade market (e.g. Francisco Lindor, Trevor Story) or free agency (e.g. Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien, Ha-Seong Kim) for a shortstop. If he handles short, the Angels could look to DJ LeMahieu, Kolten Wong, old friend Tommy La Stella or Cesar Hernandez to take over at the keystone. They’ve already expressed interest in Wong — who, as MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk noted, resembles the second base version of Simmons. Gregorius is said to be of interest to them as well.

The Angels may have to make a move in their outfield, where they received little to no production from anyone but Trout in 2020. As mentioned earlier, Upton will get a chance to rebound by virtue of the $51MM he’s owed through 2022 and his full no-trade clause. Right field doesn’t look as certain, however. The Angels do have Jo Adell and Taylor Ward there, but Adell had a brutal debut and Ward didn’t hit a home run in 102 plate appearances. Adell has long rated as one of the game’s elite prospects, but he barely got his feet wet in Triple-A in 2019 and obviously didn’t have the benefit of a minor league season in 2020. He could require some additional development time.

It may at least make sense to bring in a left-handed bat to platoon with all of their right-handed corner outfielders and slightly balance out the lineup. Michael Brantley, Joc Pederson, Brett Gardner, Jurickson Profar and Robbie Grossman lead the way among this winter’s class of lefty-capable hitters who can play the outfield. Admittedly, Brantley seems like a better fit for a club that can offer him some time at DH to help keep him fresh. The Angels did have a trade in place for Pederson last winter, but their deal with the Dodgers fell through for unknown reasons. It’s anyone’s guess whether a new front office regime would pursue him.

Year 1 of the Trout-Rendon era didn’t produce nearly enough team success — through no fault of that duo, of course — but it’s a massive advantage for the next GM to have those two in place. If the Angels are finally going to get back to contention in 2021, that executive will at least have to make meaningful additions to the Halos’ pitching staff and figure out the middle infield.

Offseason Outlook: Texas Rangers

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What was supposed to be a win-now Rangers club finished with one of MLB’s worst records, so 2021 is now looking like a re-evaluation and rebuilding year in Arlington.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Elvis Andrus, SS: $28MM through 2022
  • Rougned Odor, 2B: $27MM through 2022 (includes $3MM buyout of 2023 club option)
  • Kyle Gibson, RHP: $17MM through 2022
  • Jose Leclerc, RHP: $9.5MM through 2022 (includes $750K buyout of 2023 club option; contract also contains 2024 option)
  • Lance Lynn, RHP: $8MM through 2021
  • Jordan Lyles, RHP: $7MM through 2021
  • Joely Rodriguez, LHP: $3MM through 2021 (includes $500K buyout of 2022 club option)

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

  • Declined $18MM club option on RHP Corey Kluber (Paid $1MM buyout)

Free Agents

Emboldened by big 2019 performances from Mike Minor and Lance Lynn as well as the ostensible promise of heightened revenue from a new stadium, the Rangers had an active 2019-20 offseason, headlined by their acquisition of Corey Kluber. The idea was that the trio of Kluber, Lynn and Minor could headline a rotation also featuring breakout hopefuls Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles, propelling the Rangers back to contention in the American League West.

Murphy’s Law had other ideas. Not only did the organization — like every other club — not get the revenue boost on which it had banked, but many key parts of the Texas roster were waylaid by injuries. Kluber pitched just one inning before being sidelined by a Grade 2 teres major strain and his club option was bought out, likely ending his tenure in Arlington. Days after Kluber went down, the Rangers lost closer Jose Leclerc to the exact same injury, ending Leclerc’s season after just two innings. Meanwhile, Minor battled shoulder fatigue early in the year and saw his results deteriorate as his velocity dipped by two miles per hour.

The Rangers struck gold on their three-year deals for Minor and Lynn, the latter of which registered as a surprise at the time. The hope was that multi-year deals for Gibson and Lyles would reap similar benefits, but both pitchers were shelled in their first seasons with Texas. To his credit, Gibson at least soaked up 67 1/3 innings (tying him for 23rd among all big league pitchers), but a 5.35 ERA and fielding-independent metrics to match weren’t what the front office had in mind when signing him. Lyles’ 7.02 ERA was the worst in baseball among the 111 pitchers to throw at least 40 innings.

Injuries persisted up and down the Texas lineup, where only three players — Nick Solak, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Joey Gallo — even managed to top 40 games played and 150 plate appearances.

Twenty-five-year-old Willie Calhoun looked to be on the cusp of a breakout following a strong half-season to close the 2019 campaign, but he suffered a broken jaw after being hit by a pitch in the face during the original Spring Training, and then battled hamstring troubles once play finally commenced. The resulting .190/.231/.260 slash could be attributable to Calhoun’s issues, but it probably doesn’t fill the club with confidence. The Rangers had similar hopes for a Solak breakout, but his power completely evaporated en route to a .268/.326/.344 output. Ronald Guzman again was unable to seize the everyday job at first base.

Most problematic of all for the Rangers, though, is the continued Rougned Odor dilemma and the 2020 decline of his double play partner, Elvis Andrus. Odor has become a focal point for frustrated fans in recent years — understandably so — but tested the organization’s patience even more in 2020 with a career-worst .167/.209/.413 slash. Andrus, too, had the worst season of his career: .194/.252/.330. Both are signed through 2022 still, with Odor guaranteed $27MM and Andrus guaranteed $28MM.

There’s perhaps still some hope for Andrus, who was dogged by a .200 BABIP in a tiny 111-plate appearance sample this year and has generally been an above-average defender and baserunner. A back injury sent Andrus to the IL on multiple occasions in 2020 as well, so there’s a physical reason for his downturn at the plate. If he can rebound to his previous offensive output in 2021-22, his glove and baserunning should allow him to be a serviceable option at shortstop.

Odor carries less reason for optimism. He’s been below-average at the plate for four years running now, his two 30-homer campaigns overshadowed by a combined .279 OBP, and has seen his strikeout troubles soar to new heights since 2019. This year’s 31.8 percent strikeout rate was the worst of his career, and Odor also pops up to the infield at one of the highest rates in the game. In the past, strong exit velocities have given some hope for improved future performance, but Odor’s exit velocity plummeted by a whopping five miles per hour in 2020.

With all the Rangers’ struggles and their inability to develop talent of late — consider that they entered the season without a single homegrown rotation member — it’s no wonder that Daniels has spoken of a step back to focus on youth while owner Ray Davis has cautioned that payroll will drop.

One clear means of working toward those ends would be to aggressively shop Odor, even if it meant paying down a large portion of his salary to facilitate a trade. Given the scope of his struggles and the current economic landscape of the game, though, it’s quite possible that the Rangers won’t find a trade and need to simply move on. That could come in the form of a release or simply relegating him to a seldom-used bench piece, but continuing to give Odor regular playing time only compounds the mistake that was his six-year, $49.5MM extension.

The Rangers’ other problem is that Odor isn’t exactly blocking many quality second base options. If the club isn’t convinced of the aforementioned Solak’s ability to play second base and prefers to keep both him and Calhoun in the outfield/designated hitter mix, immediate alternatives are sparse. Prospect Anderson Tejeda got his feet wet in 2020, but he struggled through 77 plate appearances, as one would expect from a 22-year-old who made the jump from Class-A Advanced to the Majors thanks to the lack of a minor league season. The 25-year-old Kiner-Falefa could conceivably play some second base, but he thrived defensively at third base this year, so the club may wish to leave him there until top prospect Josh Jung is ready for a big league look — likely in 2022.

The lack of immediate infield depth should spur the Rangers to bring in some potential long-term fits. The most straightforward path to doing so could very well be in free agency. Most of the domestic free agents who are hitting the market are well into or even beyond their primes, but some controllable players could hit the market after the non-tender deadline.

More interesting, though, is 25-year-old Korean infielder Ha-Seong Kim. Arguably the best player in the KBO, Kim will be posted by the Kiwoom Heroes this winter. Signing Kim is akin to simply purchasing a Top 100 prospect for any big league club, and the Rangers could offer him regular playing time at second base or third base, with a combination of Kiner-Falefa, Solak and Odor (if he’s still in the picture) manning the other spot. Daniels has cautioned against viewing free agency as a “shortcut” to build the roster back up, although Kim’s age makes him a unique entrant into the market that could align with the organization’s vision.

Beyond that, however, comments from Daniels and Davis suggest that free-agent activity will be limited. Texas could look to broker some affordable deals on the margins of the market, offering bullpen innings late in the offseason to relievers who’ve struggled to find a home and perhaps poking around the market of non-tendered players. But, trades and waiver claims figure to be a greater focus for the organization.

With that in mind, it could be that Lynn has thrown his final pitch as a Ranger. Daniels held off on trading him at the Aug. 31 deadline, implying after the fact that moving Lynn would have simply been making a trade just to make a trade. “I would not have been proud of some of those deals if we made them,” Daniels told reporters following the deadline (link via Sam Blum of the Dallas Morning News). “I don’t think our fans would have been happy about it, either.” If the offers for Lynn were indeed that weak, it’s sensible to have waited until the winter.

There’s an argument, of course, that Lynn’s value has only gone down because he’s controlled only for one playoff run and didn’t pitch as well post-deadline. At the same time, there’s a greater number of clubs now looking to fortify their rotations. The Reds, for instance, weren’t in the market for rotation help in August but could be now if Trevor Bauer walks. Other teams may have been maxed out from a budgetary standpoint in August but could now more capably absorb Lynn’s reasonable $8MM salary for the 2021 campaign. The market for Lynn should still be robust, with some speculative suitors including the Braves, Reds, Yankees, Cubs, Mets, Phillies, Nationals, Blue Jays and Red Sox.

If the Rangers aren’t intent on making a win-now push in 2021, then it also stands to reason that they should be open to offers on slugger Joey Gallo. He’s coming off a down season at the plate after a huge 2019 campaign, but Gallo has as much power as anyone in the game and has emerged as a top-notch defender in the outfield. With two seasons of club control left and his 27th birthday still two weeks away as of this writing, Gallo could tempt clubs with a 40-homer bat and Gold Glove potential.

The bullpen might offer another handful of trade options. Leclerc, 27 next month, would be appealing given that he’s owed $9.75MM through 2022 and can be controlled through 2024 via a pair of club options ($6MM in 2023, $6.25MM in 2024). Texas may not want to sell low on Leclerc after an injury-shortened season, but clubs figure to come calling. The Rangers’ more likely trade candidates, however, could be lesser-noticed names.

Southpaw Joely Rodriguez received a two-year deal that seemed to come out of the blue for many onlookers, but he was quite effective in his return from Japan. He’s owed a $2.5MM salary next season and controlled through 2022 via a similarly affordable $3MM club option. At a time when it looks like clubs will be rather conservative with their bullpen expenditures, two years of a 29-year-old lefty who throws 95 mph at a total of $5.5MM is a nice player to peddle on the trade market.

Similarly, many fans may not even be aware of Rafael Montero’s resurgence since signing with the Rangers. The former Mets top prospect missed 2018 due to injury but has bounced back with a 3.09 ERA and a terrific 53-to-11 K/BB ratio in 46 2/3 innings as a Ranger. Montero, who notched eight saves in 2020 and is now averaging better than 96 mph on his heater, is controlled via arbitration through 2022.

Overall, the Rangers are in a tough spot. Their current MLB roster isn’t good enough to contend, but their farm system ranks among the game’s weakest thanks to some injuries to high draft picks and stalled development of others. With the possible exception of promising young catcher Sam Huff and outfielder Leody Taveras, reinforcements aren’t on the immediate horizon.

All that said, the Rangers only have $39MM on the books in 2022 and don’t have a single guaranteed contract on the 2023 payroll. It’s also important to note that this is an ownership group that has shown a prior willingness to spend and does still have the allure of a new stadium to draw fans once attendance levels are green-lit to return to full capacity. As such, an arduous, multi-year rebuild isn’t a foregone conclusion. The upcoming offseason will likely be focused on acquiring controllable young talent, but if the club can convert on some young talent, we could see Texas jump back into a more aggressive offseason approach a year or two from now.

Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves

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The Braves won the National League East for the third straight year in 2020, but they fell to the eventual World Series champion Dodgers in the LCS. Atlanta is now at risk of losing some important contributors to free agency.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

The Braves have managed to pull off highly successful position players signings in each of the previous two offseasons. Heading into 2019, they added third baseman Josh Donaldson on a one-year, $23MM contract. The former MVP proceeded to rebound as a Brave, but they let him go last winter in lieu of giving him a longer deal. To replace Donaldson’s punch in their lineup, the Braves took the one-year route again when they inked outfielder Marcell Ozuna for $18MM. Like the Donaldson signing, the Ozuna pact couldn’t have gone much better for Atlanta. An above-average hitter throughout his career, the 29-year-old Ozuna found another gear in 2020 with an all-world .338/.431/.636 line and an NL-leading 18 home runs in 267 plate appearances.

While the Braves have benefited greatly from Ozuna, it’s possible his time in their uniform is up. The club has to decide in the coming weeks how far they’re willing to go to re-sign Ozuna, who MLBTR predicts will land a four-year, $72MM payday in free agency. General manager Alex Anthopoulos couldn’t issue Ozuna a qualifying offer after the Cardinals gave him one last year, so he may end up walking for nothing. Naturally, Anthopoulos has said he’d like to retain Ozuna. However, he didn’t make it sound like a slam dunk, and Anthopoulos also pointed out that it would be nice to have clarity on a potential 2021 DH. Ozuna spent most of his season there, lining up in the outfield 21 times.

In the event Ozuna leaves, the Braves will have several possible paths they could take to try to replace him. George Springer is the best outfielder in free agency, but the Braves could instead opt for another short-term play with someone like Michael Brantley or Joc Pederson if they want a proven hitter capable of playing left field to replace Ozuna.

Alternatively, the Braves could re-sign Nick Markakis — though that seems doubtful after his rough year — and/or simply stick with their in-house options as they wait for prospects Cristian Pache and Drew Waters to take on major league roles. They do have several options with Ronald Acuna Jr., Adam Duvall, Austin Riley, Ender Inciarte, Abraham Almonte and Johan Camargo on hand. The problem is that Acuna is the only player there who’s truly capable of striking fear into teams. In an ideal world, the Braves will be able to shed Inciarte’s $9.025MM in a trade, but that will be a challenge . Inciarte endured a terrible 2020, which will make teams even less likely to take on his money in today’s economic climate. The Braves would likely need to pay down a notable portion of the deal or take another bad contract back in return.

Moving elsewhere in the Braves’ lineup, the team has serious questions at third base. Riley is their main option there, but he had a disappointing year. So did Camargo, who now looks like a potential non-tender candidate. If the Braves are dissatisfied with them, they won’t be able to find much on the market after Justin Turner. He could make sense as another of Anthopoulos’ one- or two-year signings, though it remains to be seen whether he’d leave Los Angeles.

Another name to watch could be Cubs third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant, a prime trade candidate in whom the Braves have shown interest in the past. Bryant had a poor year in 2020 and will come with a salary in the $19MM range, meaning his value is depressed. That could give the Braves an opportunity to strike for a reasonable cost and hope the former MVP can regain his usual form in his final year of team control. He’d fit the Anthopoulos mold of a high-upside, one-year commitment to a star-caliber player.

The Braves are also going to have to address their pitching staff to some extent. They received brutal injury blows this year with Mike Soroka blowing out his Achilles tendon and Cole Hamels dealing with persistent arm issues. Hamels, whom the Braves signed to a one-year, $18MM contract last offseason, was a bust due to those injuries and should be expected to land elsewhere in free agency. Soroka will be back to join Max Fried and Ian Anderson, though, which will give the Braves an elite-looking trio at the helm of their rotation. That means they don’t necessarily have to shop at the absolute top of the market for Trevor Bauer, but it’s worth noting they don’t have any established hurlers behind Soroka, Fried and Anderson.

With the Braves likely to add at least one starter, Anthopoulos could look to reunite with one of the other top names available, Marcus Stroman. There’s a clear connection between the two, as Anthopoulos was the Blue Jays’ GM when they drafted Stroman in 2012. Less expensive possibilities in free agency could include ex-Brave Charlie Morton (who wants to stay on the East Coast), Adam Wainwright (whom the Braves have already contacted), Masahiro Tanaka, Jake Odorizzi, J.A. Happ, Jose Quintana, James Paxton, Corey Kluber, Taijuan Walker and Atlanta resident Jon Lester, among others. The Rangers’ Lance Lynn should be popular in trade talks, as he’s due an ultra-affordable $8MM in 2021 and may appeal to Atlanta as another one-year fit.

As is the case with their rotation, the Braves’ bullpen will undergo changes in the coming months. There has already been one significant development with the team’s choice to decline its $3.5MM option over Darren O’Day. The move saved the Braves $3MM, but it still came as a surprise to see them part with O’Day in the wake of an outstanding season. He’s now a free agent along with Mark Melancon, Shane Greene and Josh Tomlin, who joined O’Day in providing effective production in 2020.

While Will Smith, Tyler Matzek, Chris Martin and A.J. Minter will again be in the fold next season, the Braves will have to replace at least some of their departing relievers. There won’t be any shortage of options on the market, which is led by Liam Hendriks, Brad Hand, Trevor May, Trevor Rosenthal and Blake Treinen. Alex Colome, Greg Holland, Kirby Yates and Jake McGee are also among those looking for work.

Along with handling outside business, it’s possible the Braves will attempt to extend superstar first baseman Freddie Freeman before next season. The franchise icon and career-long Brave is coming off his best season yet, one that should earn him NL MVP honors, and will enter a contract year in 2021. Freeman has said he’d like to remain a Brave (the feeling is surely mutual), though it’ll be costly for the club to keep him. The 31-year-old wouldn’t be out of line asking for a comparable extension to the five-year, $130MM guarantee the Cardinals gave first baseman Paul Goldschmidt in 2019. Of course, that was before the pandemic hit and damaged the game’s economy.

Locking up Freeman could certainly be on the Braves’ to-do list. He’ll be back in 2021 regardless, though, and it’s clear Anthopoulos has other work to do this offseason if he’s going to build a fourth straight division winner and a World Series-caliber roster.

Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

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After three losing seasons, the Blue Jays both topped the .500 mark and returned to the playoffs in 2020.  Now that the corner has seemingly been turned on the team’s rebuild, could a full-fledged push towards contention be on the way?

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

A 32-28 record under the wholly unique circumstances of the 2020 season doesn’t exactly mean that the Jays can suddenly start thinking about the World Series.  That said, this year’s results were definitely a positive development, and indicative of this roster’s potential — so much of the team’s young core is either still early in their MLB careers or not even in the majors yet, but the Blue Jays have already shown that they’re able to win.

It makes for a potentially fascinating offseason in Toronto, especially considering that the Jays might be one of the few teams who could have the ability to spend.  More will be known on this front once Jays management meets with the Rogers Communications ownership group for a budget meeting later this month, but on paper, the Blue Jays would seem to have some extra payroll capacity.  The team has roughly $81.25MM in committed salary for 2021, and less than $37MM on the books in both 2022 and 2023, with only three players (Hyun Jin Ryu, Randal Grichuk, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.) under contract beyond the coming season.

Since the Jays came into 2020 with a pre-pandemic payroll of around $93.2MM, there is some room for GM Ross Atkins to maneuver even if ownership doesn’t okay much or any new spending.  The club already carved out some extra space by declining Chase Anderson’s $9.5MM club option, and Travis Shaw’s projected arbitration salary makes him a non-tender candidate given his lack of production last season.

Is another Ryu-esque signing in the cards?  Atkins didn’t rule out the possibility, telling reporters last month that “I think we are in a position where we could add to this team with talent that is condensed in one player and a super high impact.”  While Toronto is far from being the proverbial “one player away” from a championship, it seems plausible that the Jays could try to duplicate their 2019-20 offseason by making one big-ticket acquisition and then a few other, more moderately-priced pickups.

Pitching is the most obvious need for a club whose rotation was in flux for much of the season.  Ryu and Tanner Roark were the only real constants, though Roark struggled in his first season in Toronto and now figures to slot into the back of the rotation.  Ross Stripling also didn’t pitch well as a Blue Jay after being acquired from the Dodgers at the trade deadline, though after years of being shifted in and out of the Los Angeles rotation, Stripling should get a clear-cut chance at being a full-time starting pitcher in 2021.  Nate Pearson battled some elbow problems and tossed only 18 innings in his rookie season, so while his prospect ceiling is very high, he can’t yet be counted upon as a front-of-the-rotation type.

Trent Thornton, Anthony Kay, T.J. Zeuch, and other young arms are on hand to compete for a starting job or provide depth, but adding certainly one and potentially two experienced starters would go a long way towards solidifying the starting staff.  Reunions with free agents Taijuan Walker, Matt Shoemaker, Anderson, and Robbie Ray will be considered, with Walker likely to receive the most attention from other teams given how well he pitched in 2020, particularly after joining the Blue Jays after the trade deadline.

Walker did speak quite highly of his time with the Jays, noting that “they did such a great job of making us comfortable in Buffalo.”  This could be an underrated factor in the team’s offseason planning, as pitchers like Walker or the other Jays free agents could be prioritized since they’re already familiar with conditions at Buffalo’s Sahlen Field.  A decision on whether or not the Blue Jays will be able to play in Toronto in 2021 likely won’t be known for at least a few months, so external free agents might be wary of potentially spending a year at a hitter-friendly minor league ballpark.

Then again, that might be just the kind of thing that would appeal to an unconventional free agent like Trevor Bauer.  Atkins and Jays president/CEO Mark Shapiro were part of the Cleveland front office that brought Bauer to the Indians back in December 2012, and while landing Bauer would be much more costly this time around, Bauer’s stated openness to shorter-term or even one-year contracts could make him a particular fit for the Jays.  Such a contract would keep Bauer in the fold during the window of Ryu’s prime and still give the Blue Jays future payroll flexibility, while also allowing more time for Pearson, Kay, or Simeon Woods Richardson to develop.

Whether the Blue Jays are prepared to make quite that big a splash in pursuing Bauer remains to be seen, though given how aggressively the team went after pitching last offseason, it can’t be ruled out.  If the Jays are allowed to stretch their payroll, that gives them a leg up on virtually every other team in baseball in this post-pandemic offseason, and puts Toronto in play for conceivably any free agent.  A case can be made for the Jays to pursue the likes of Bauer, J.T. Realmuto or (as MLBTR did in our Top 50 Free Agents list) DJ LeMahieu, or perhaps rather than shop in the upper tier of the market, the Blue Jays could spread their money around in the second tier.  If Bauer is to command upwards of $30MM in average annual value, that $30MM+ could also cover, say, Walker and Masahiro Tanaka in the rotation and Justin Turner at third base.

Besides free agents, the Jays could also look to acquire talent in a trade, especially if rival teams are more willing to unload quality players in the name of cost-cutting.  Beyond just the obvious Cleveland connection with Shapiro and Atkins, Francisco Lindor is a player that would make some sense for the Jays, particularly since they have looked into acquiring him in the past.  The Indians would certainly have a high asking price for even one year of Lindor, yet considering salary concerns just led the Tribe to cut ties with a valuable player in Brad Hand, getting Lindor’s salary off the books might be a bigger concern for Cleveland than fully maximizing a trade return.

Installing Lindor at shortstop for a year also solves the third base question, assuming Shaw is non-tendered — Bo Bichette would be moved off shortstop to play either third or second base, with Cavan Biggio handling the other position.  Acquiring a position player on a shorter-term deal might be the optimal move for a Jays team that has Austin Martin and Jordan Groshans in the prospect pipeline, and seems mostly set around the diamond in the present.  The core of Gurriel, Grichuk, and Teoscar Hernandez in the outfield, Danny Jansen behind the plate, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Rowdy Tellez as the first base/DH duo, Bichette at shortstop and Biggio at second base (or multiple positions) is solid from an offensive standpoint, but the Jays were one of the league’s weaker defensive teams.

Inserting a premium defender like Andrelton Simmons or Kolten Wong into the one open infield spot would certainly help in this regard, though if the Blue Jays wanted to go bigger, they could explore trading Grichuk or Tellez.  Such moves would allow for the acquisition of a more traditional center fielder to patrol the outfield, or free up the DH spot so the Jays could keep some of their lesser defenders in the lineup.

As they did last offseason, it seems likely that the Jays will continue to target multi-position players, in order to upgrade a bench that didn’t provide much help when injuries arose during the season.  Biggio is developing nicely as a super-utilityman, but getting another reliable player who can play several positions could be another path towards helping the defense, at least in a late-game capacity.

The Jays haven’t traditionally spent much on relief pitching under Atkins, and that strategy might continue this winter even though the bullpen didn’t post good numbers in 2020.  Toronto relievers were asked to throw a lot of innings in support of the shaky rotation, so things could stabilize simply with a more normal workload, plus several good young arms (i.e. Jordan Romano, Thomas Hatch, Julian Merryweather) delivered strong results.

It’s possible the Jays don’t have a traditional closer at all next season, or if they do, Romano or Rafael Dolis could get more consideration than an external pitcher.  But since the Jays will presumably look to add at least one veteran reliever, they could check into pitchers with past closing experience.  As the Indians’ decision to decline Hand’s option might indicate, this could be a particularly volatile market for relief pitching, leaving the Blue Jays with many opportunities to acquire a significant bullpen piece at perhaps something of a bargain price.

There is no shortage of possibilities open to the Blue Jays this winter, making a team to watch both this winter and in 2021, when the young cornerstones and (presumably) some new additions could gather to again make the Jays postseason factors.

Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

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The Orioles briefly flirted with Wild Card contention in this year’s greatly expanded playoff format, but the O’s ultimately finished out the year at 25-35 with a -20 run differential. GM Mike Elias will head into his third offseason on the job still squarely in a rebuild, which should make for a pretty quiet winter in Baltimore.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Baltimore’s offseason kicks off with what looks to be a relatively straightforward decision on 30-year-old shortstop Jose Iglesias’ club option. Iglesias was hampered by a quadriceps injury that limited him to 160 innings of defense, but he also posted an outrageous .373/.400/.556 slash in 150 trips to the plate. Granted, it was fueled largely by a .407 BABIP that isn’t repeatable, but Iglesias did make some gains in exit velocity and hard-hit rate as well. Assuming the quad is healthy next year, this is an affordable price tag on a singles hitter who rarely strikes out and is typically an excellent defender.

The extent to which the Orioles will be active after that is tough to gauge, but major moves shouldn’t be expected. The Orioles, under Elias, have signed just three players to Major League deals: Iglesias, Nate Karns and Kohl Stewart. Both Karns and Stewart inked split contracts that did not come with full guarantees in the big leagues.

We’re entering the third year of the Elias rebuild, but the O’s are still staring up at a powerhouse Rays club, the perennially contending Yankees, an emerging young Blue Jays team and a Red Sox club that will get some crucial names back in 2021 (Chris Sale, Eduardo Rodriguez among them). The O’s aren’t just a couple of savvy free-agent signings away from competing against this group.

Of course, the O’s hope to get an important piece back themselves in the form of slugger Trey Mancini. The 28-year-old was Baltimore’s best hitter and arguably best all-around player in 2019, but he missed the 2020 season after revealing back in March that he had been diagnosed with colon cancer. Mancini underwent surgery to remove a malignant tumor, but Elias said last month that the organization is hopeful he’ll be ready to rejoin the club in Spring Training. It’d be a boon for the clubhouse and lineup alike, as a Mancini return would start the season off on a feel-good note and give manager Brandon Hyde a heart-of-the-order hitter who raked at a .291/.364/.535 clip when last healthy.

Mancini would give the Orioles an option at first base, designated hitter or in either outfield corner, although he’s best-suited to play first (career -17 DRS in the outfield). That’d push Chris Davis — more on him later — to designated hitter but still leave the Orioles with some possible areas for addition around the diamond.

In 2020, the O’s relied primarily on Hanser Alberto and Rio Ruiz at second base and third base, respectively. Alberto was one of the club’s best hitters for much of the season before a disastrous final 15 games torpedoed his batting line. Ruiz, meanwhile, slugged nine homers but hit just .222 with a .286 on-base percentage. Both players look to lack ceiling at the plate; Alberto has hit for average in Baltimore but lacks power, while Ruiz has pop but minimal on-base skills.

It’s at least plausible that the Orioles would consider non-tendering Alberto — particularly given what should be a rather flooded second base market. Ruiz doesn’t seem like a sure thing to survive the winter on the 40-man roster, having given the O’s a .229/.299/.393 slash (82 wRC+) through 617 plate appearances over the past two seasons. The Orioles could give Renato Nunez another look at the hot corner, but he’s viewed as a poor defender.

Given that lackluster set of options at second and third base, it’s not particularly surprising that Elias has already spoken of a desire to bolster his infield depth. In his end-of-season chat with reporters, Elias noted a lack of infield depth in the organization when he took over, attributing it to the team’s prior aversion to signing international amateur free agents. While the GM said it’s been an area of focus since he took the reins and offered optimism that the pipeline is improving, he also called infield depth “one of those areas where everyone is always looking for more” (link  via MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko).

The Orioles aren’t going to go wild and sign a top free agent like DJ LeMahieu, but there should be some solid veterans available on more affordable deals. They’ve already been there, done that with Jonathan Villar and Jonathan Schoop — not that a reunion is impossible — but someone like Cesar Hernandez, Jedd Gyorko, or Marwin Gonzalez (whom Elias knows from his Astros days) would give them some cover.

It’s also at least worth pondering whether the Orioles will take a more significant plunge on a unique market entrant: Korean shortstop Ha-Seong Kim. The Kiwoom Heroes star will be posted for MLB clubs this winter, and he’ll play next season at just 25 years of age. Even when the O’s were inexplicably dormant on the Latin American market for international talent, they had a strong presence in both NPB and the KBO.

Bringing Kim into the mix would ostensibly align with the timeline of their rebuild, and he’s capable of playing each of shortstop, second base and third base. We’re expecting a pretty substantial contract for Kim — four to five years in length at something in the $7-9MM annual range — so it’d be a notable departure from the dearth of free-agent spending under Elias. That said, Kim’s age and versatility both match up with the Orioles’ long-term organizational needs. Signing Kim is akin to signing a Top 100 prospect who can be plugged directly onto the big league roster. Some contenders may prefer players who are proven against MLB pitching, but the Orioles could certainly withstand the risk that Kim faces a prolonged adjustment period.

Beyond the infield, the lineup should mostly be set. Ryan Mountcastle exploded onto the scene with a .333/.386/.492 showing through his first 140 MLB plate appearances. He’s locked down one corner outfield slot, with the other surely set aside for Anthony Santander, who hit .261/.315/.575 with 11 big flies, 13 doubles and a triple in 165 plate appearances. Austin Hays is the favorite in center field thanks to a .289/.344/.458 output dating back to 2019 (209 total plate appearances), and Cedric Mullins gives them a solid alternative.

Behind the plate, Chance Sisco and Pedro Severino form a respectable platoon, but they’re both placeholders for 2019 No. 1 overall pick Adley Rutschman. Sisco strikes out too much but draws plenty of walks and has shown some pop. Severino had a rough 43 plate appearances against lefties in 2020 but has generally handled them well in his career.

At designated hitter, the Orioles will be left to ponder what to do with the remaining portion of the aforementioned Davis and his contract. Nunez gives them another option there as well, having belted 43 homers dating back to 2019 but providing minimal defensive value at the infield corners. There’s been speculation about releasing Davis for years now, and perhaps that outcome is simply inevitable, but the O’s will likely wait to see how he looks in Spring Training and also to determine whether they’ll have Mancini available before making such a drastic move.

It’s also not a lock that Nunez will be tendered a contract. For all the power he’s shown in the past two seasons, his overall .247/.314/.469 slash translates to a 104 wRC+ and 106 OPS+ due to his questionable on-base skills and the leaguewide home run boom. Paired with his defensive shortcomings, Nunez has been worth less than one WAR per both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference in 2019-20 combined.

On the pitching side of the equation, the Orioles have vacancies in both the rotation and bullpen, which should allow them to be opportunistic in signing some veteran free agents. They seemed to prioritize price over upside last winter when bringing in Tommy Milone and Wade LeBlanc on non-guaranteed deals, but it’s possible they’ll be able to get some arms with higher ceilings to concede to minor league pacts or low-base, incentive-laden one-year deals this time around. There’s something to be said for leaving the door open for in-house options to seize opportunities, but there are so many holes on this pitching staff that it’d be surprising if the front office didn’t bring in some fresh faces.

A potential trade involving Cobb would create another opening and also serve to pare back the payroll. No one is going to take Cobb’s entire $15MM salary, but he did bounce back from an injury-ruined 2019 season to make 10 starts of 4.30 ERA ball in 2020. Cobb looks mostly like an innings-eating fourth/fifth starter at this point, so there won’t be a long line to acquire him, but if the O’s were to absorb 75 percent of his salary or take on another undesirable contract in return, perhaps something could be worked out. At the very least, Cobb’s healthy showing and respectable results moved him off the borderline-untradeable status he held this time last year.

Overall, the Orioles simply aren’t in a position to spend much money or part with young players to add veteran upgrades to their roster. A player like Kim or a younger non-tender who still has some prime years and team control remaining would make sense as an upside play. One-year deals and minor league pacts for veterans with a bit of name value are likely on the docket, but the O’s lack both obvious trade candidates on the big league roster and motivation to make splashy moves for veteran players. The 2021 season will likely be another year dedicated to shaping a sustainable core of players with an eye toward better results in 2022-23.

Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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For the second straight year, the Cardinals overcame a lackluster offense to reach the postseason, though 2020 also saw the club emerge from a widespread COVID-19 outbreak.  St. Louis now faces some tough decisions on veteran cornerstones, while also figuring out how to make further needed upgrades despite a potential lack of payroll flexibility.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: $103.5MM through 2024
  • Miles Mikolas, SP: $51.75MM through 2023
  • Paul DeJong, SS: $21MM through 2023 (includes $2MM buyout of $12.5MM club option for 2024; Cards also have $15MM club option for 2025 with $1MM buyout)
  • Matt Carpenter, IF: $20.5MM through 2021 (includes $2MM buyout of $18.5MM club/vesting option for 2022)
  • Dexter Fowler, OF: $16.5MM through 2021
  • Carlos Martinez, SP: $12MM through 2021 (includes $500K buyout of $17MM club option for 2022; Cards also have $18MM club option for 2023 with $500K buyout)
  • Andrew Miller, RP: $12MM through 2021 (club option vested into a guaranteed deal)
  • Kwang Hyun Kim, SP: $4MM through 2021

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

  • Kolten Wong, 2B: $12.5MM club option for 2021 ($1MM buyout)

Free Agents

On the plus side of the payroll equation, the Cardinals don’t have a big arbitration class, and they have quite a few major contributors who are either just becoming arb-eligible or are still in their pre-arb years.  The released Brett Cecil’s contract will come off the books and the Yadier Molina/Adam Wainwright free agent duo represents $25MM in salary, so the Cards could have some money to play with this winter.

The question is, however, whether these savings will be reinvested into payroll.  While St. Louis has a lot of inexpensive players, it also has almost $110MM committed to eight players for 2021 (that isn’t counting Kolten Wong’s $12.5MM club option, which we’ll cover later).  Like every other team in baseball, the Cardinals are dealing with revenue losses and will be looking to make at least some cutbacks whenever feasible.  That said, this is also a veteran win-now team, so the Cards will still be looking to contend.

It leaves president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and GM Mike Girsch with a difficult offseason ahead of them, in part because the 2020 Cardinals are a particularly hard team to evaluate.  The coronavirus outbreak affected multiple members of the roster and kept the entire team sidelined for over two weeks, only adding to the stop-start nature of an already abbreviated season.  A case can be made that the front office could try to run it back with mostly the same core group, yet the Cardinals have enough weak points that some changes definitely need to be made.

Molina was one of the COVID-19 positive Cardinals, and the longtime catcher simply never got on track, hitting .262/.303/.359 over 156 plate appearances.  That makes it consecutive seasons of subpar offensive production for Molina, but he is still looking for a two-year contract that would take him past his 40th birthday.  Letting Molina go would open the door for noted prospect Andrew Knizner to assume at least a share of everyday duties (maybe alongside a veteran such as a re-signed Matt Wieters), and yet are the Cards willing to let a franchise icon depart?

Wainwright represents perhaps a slightly easier decision, as the 39-year-old was still a very effective player last season.  Statcast metrics didn’t love his performance, but Wainwright still posted a 3.15 ERA, 3.60 K/BB rate, and 7.4 K/9 over a team-high 65 2/3 innings.  Even with a big decline over a fuller season of work, Wainwright still looks like he has something to offer a team, so the question now becomes whether or not the Cardinals could be that team.  Wainwright has said he wants to stay in St. Louis but hinted that his fate could potentially be linked to wherever Molina ends up.

Re-signing Wainwright to something close to the one-year, $5MM contract (plus several incentives) that he inked last year would seem like a logical move for the Cardinals, who head into 2021 with some question marks on the pitching staff.  Nominal ace Jack Flaherty struggled in 2020, Carlos Martinez battled a severe case of COVID-19 and then suffered a late-season oblique strain, and Miles Mikolas’ status for the start of next season isn’t yet known after the righty underwent flexor tendon surgery in late July.  On top of that, Dakota Hudson will almost certainly miss all of 2021 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in September.

A lower-tier move like a reunion with Wainwright might be all the attention the Cards focus on their rotation, since they still have some solid in-house depth.  Kwang Hyun Kim proved to be a real find last winter, and the South Korean left-hander solidified his spot in next year’s starting five following an outstanding rookie season.  Beyond Kim and Flaherty, the Cardinals also have Daniel Ponce de Leon, Jake Woodford, Johan Oviedo, and Austin Gomber to pick up starts, and top prospect Matthew Liberatore could also potentially work his way into the conversation.

There’s also oft-injured Alex Reyes, who stayed healthy (apart from an asymptomatic case of COVID-19) and pitched well in a relief capacity.  St. Louis could opt to just keep Reyes in the bullpen to avoid any further injury concerns, and the same logic could also extend to Martinez, who was returning to starting pitching in 2020 after an impressive season and a half working as a reliever.  Depending on Martinez’s health situation and the overall state of the rotation, returning Martinez to the closer role (or maybe situational closer duties shared with Reyes) could be a canny way of bolstering an already solid relief corps.  Jordan Hicks also figures to be in the ninth-inning mix, though his status is somewhat up in the air after he opted out of the 2020 season due to health concerns and a setback in his recovery from Tommy John surgery in June 2019.

The Cardinals’ ability to deliver consistent pitching and quality defense made them a playoff team, though that path would be much easier with any sort of regular help from the lineup.  Paul Goldschmidt wasn’t quite a one-man hit squad in 2020, as St. Louis got an unexpectedly big contribution from utilityman Brad Miller and center fielder Harrison Bader at least crushed left-handed pitching, even if his splits against righties were mediocre.

Goldschmidt is obviously a cornerstone player, and the Cards would be pleased with Bader as an everyday player (with some platoon possibility) if he continues to mash lefties and provide solid center field defense, though Bader’s glovework dropped from excellent in 2018-19 to merely good in 2020.  Beyond those two, however, the Cardinals will go into next season unsure of whether or not Matt Carpenter, Paul DeJong, or Dexter Fowler can turn things around at the plate.

DeJong’s struggles could be explained by a positive COVID-19 diagnosis, though Carpenter has had two straight subpar seasons and Fowler has been hit-and-miss for much of his St. Louis tenure.  On top of that, Tommy Edman followed up his strong 2019 rookie year with an underwhelming second season, so it remains to be seen if Edman just had a sophomore slump (on top of everything else in 2020) or if he can adjust and become a regular contributor within the infield.

For now, the Cardinals’ infield picture lines up as Goldschmidt at first base, DeJong at shortstop, Carpenter at third base, and Edman as the nominal second baseman until a decision is made on Wong.  Though Wong hit only .265/.350/.326 over 208 PA last season, the Cards know what they have in the Hawaii native — roughly average offensive production (a 99 wRC+ and 98 OPS+ from 2015-20) and an often spectacular second base glove.  In a normal offseason, exercising that $12.5MM club option would seem like a relatively easy call for St. Louis, but the team is thought to be exploring a contract extension with Wong that would lower his salary for the 2021 season but give him more long-term security.

If an extension can’t be reached, could St. Louis consider simply declining Wong’s option?  It seems a little unlikely, given Wong’s obvious value to both the Cardinals and other teams, yet the possibility can’t be ruled out if the Cardinals are lacking in payroll wiggle room.  The Cards might have some confidence they could get Wong to re-sign at a lower price tag, but a number of second-base needy teams (i.e. the Athletics, Indians, Yankees, Rockies, Phillies, Angels, Cubs, and probably others) would provide a lot of competition for Wong’s services.

With Carpenter a question mark, St. Louis will probably look for more infield depth beyond Edman, and re-signing Miller would certainly seem feasible given how well he played last season.  Miller has quietly hit .247/.343/.510 with 20 home runs over 341 PA since the start of the 2019 season, with much of that production coming against right-handed pitching.  Signing a player of Miller’s ilk will become even more of a need if the National League again has the DH for 2021, as Miller instantly provided the Cardinals with some pop from the new position.

That leaves the outfield, a big problem area in 2020 that nonetheless has hope for improvement.  St. Louis outfielders combined for an 82 wRC+ in 2020 (the sixth-lowest total of any team), but Bader did hit lefties well, and star prospect Dylan Carlson seemed to turn a corner in mid-September after being recalled from a demotion to the alternate training site.  The Cardinals likely have Bader and Carlson penciled in for two outfield spots, or perhaps 1.5 spots if Carlson plays center field on days when the Cards face a right-handed starter.

That puts no small amount of pressure on a 22-year-old, of course, and it would help the Cardinals immensely if they could count on anything from Fowler, Tyler O’Neill or Lane Thomas.  COVID-19 limited Thomas to only 18 games, so there is some expectation that he can rebound as at least a part-time outfield option if healthy.  O’Neill is only 25 and not far removed from being a top prospect, but he has yet to translate his hitting potential into big league numbers.

This much wait-and-see is risky for a team hoping to win in 2021, so if St. Louis makes any sort of notable addition this winter, the outfield is the logical landing spot.  As much as trading Randy Arozarena might still weigh heavily on the front office’s mind, the Cardinals could shop O’Neill, Thomas, or Bader for a more proven veteran bat.  With only one year left on his contract, Fowler might also be moveable in a bad-contract swap or if the Cards are willing to eat some money.  If the trade market isn’t the preferred route, the Cardinals could look at free agents, whether it’s pure outfielders like Joc Pederson, or perhaps multi-position types like Jurickson Profar or Enrique Hernandez that could help in both the outfield and infield.

There’s probably bound to again be speculation about the Cards trying to swing a bigger-ticket trade like their acquisition of Goldschmidt two offseasons ago, or their rumored interest in Nolan Arenado last winter.  But, if payroll concerns were an obstacle to an Arenado trade last year, a deal seems even more unlikely now in the pandemic’s wake.

It’s easy to imagine either a pretty quiet or a pretty busy offseason for the Cardinals, depending on how much change they feel is necessary.  After all, this is a club that has been to the postseason in consecutive years, albeit via the expanded playoff field in 2020.  The potential departures of Molina and Wainwright have more than just symbolic importance, as the Cards would be left with two more areas of need on a roster that is lacking in sure things.

Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Indians

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Has Francisco Lindor played his last game in an Indians uniform?  The shortstop’s fate is the biggest of several questions facing the Tribe this winter.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Carlos Carrasco, SP: $27MM through 2022 (including $3MM buyout of $14MM club/vesting option for 2022 season)
  • Jose Ramirez, 3B: $11MM through 2021 (includes $2MM buyout of $11MM club option for 2022; also has a $13MM club option for 2023)

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

  • Carlos Santana, 1B: $17.5MM club option ($500K buyout)
  • Brad Hand, RP: $10MM club option ($1MM buyout)
  • Roberto Perez, C: $5.5MM club option ($450K buyout)(deal also has $7MM club option for the 2022 season)
  • Domingo Santana, OF: $5MM club option ($250 buyout)

Free Agents

After winning 93 games but missing the postseason in 2019, the Tribe got back to the playoffs this year before being unceremoniously swept by the Yankees in the best-of-three wild card series.  Despite a .588 winning percentage since the start of the 2017 season, the Indians haven’t won a single postseason series in those four years, making one of the more successful stretches in franchise history seem like something of a disappointment.

Cleveland has both stretched and tried to manage its payroll to sustain this competitive window, trading such high-salaried notables as Trevor Bauer and Corey Kluber in 2019 to save some money and add some younger talent.  Even before the COVID-19 pandemic reduced revenues around baseball, the 2020-21 offseason was always projecting to be a transformative one for the Indians given how many key players (and key salaries) could be moved off the books.

We’ll begin with Lindor, who is entering his final year under team control.  Though neither side has ruled out the possibility of a contract extension, the writing has long been on the wall that the Indians won’t be able to afford the $200MM+ it would take to retain Lindor over the long term.  As such, this offseason represents the last and best opportunity for the Tribe to deal Lindor for a significant trade return, since waiting until next year’s trade deadline would greatly reduce the Indians’ asking price (and increases the risk of Lindor getting hurt or having a bad season).  Moving Lindor prior to Opening Day would also allow Cleveland to save at least $17.5MM in payroll, depending on how his arbitration number is figured.

There are several teams who figure to check in on Lindor’s services, if they haven’t already over the last couple of seasons.  Marcus Semien, Didi Gregorius, and Andrelton Simmons headline this winter’s free agent shortstop class, so Lindor could be seen as a preferable upgrade to that trio for shortstop-needy teams.

Is there a case to be made for keeping Lindor?  Certainly.  Looking at the finances first, Carlos Santana is likely to have his $17.5MM club option declined in the wake of a career-worst season for the veteran first baseman.  With Santana’s money coming off the books anyway, Lindor’s salary might not be seen as onerous for a club that has so little in the way of future contractual commitments.

Plus, trading Lindor for an acceptable return might not be quite so easy for Cleveland.  We’re only a year away from a potentially epic free agent shortstop class that could include Lindor himself along with Carlos Correa, Javier Baez, Trevor Story, and Corey Seager, so rival teams might prefer to acquire a one-year stopgap for 2021 before making the big splash at the position next year.  Trading for Lindor now would cost a team both young talent and money in the form of Lindor’s salary, whereas signing any of Semien, Gregorius, or Simmons costs only money, and less than Lindor’s projected arbitration cost.  Lindor is also coming off a down year by his standards (.258/.335/.415 with eight home runs over 266 plate appearances), which could make teams wary if they don’t write that performance off as a by-product of 2020’s unusual circumstances.

Cleveland doesn’t seem to have any inclination to rebuild, so having Lindor in the lineup would go a long way towards getting them back to the playoffs.  His average numbers in 2020 notwithstanding, Lindor is still one of baseball’s better players, and he has a particular importance on an offensively-challenged Cleveland team.  Part of the reason the Indians were willing to deal Bauer, Kluber, and Mike Clevinger was because of the club’s impressive ability to find and develop big league-ready pitching to restock the rotation, but Lindor is a much tougher player to replace.

MVP candidate Jose Ramirez and young slugger Franmil Reyes are the only sure things in a lineup that could be completely overhauled.  Beyond Lindor and Santana, Cesar Hernandez performed admirably as the Tribe’s second baseman but is headed for free agency.  Delino DeShields and/or Tyler Naquin could be non-tendered as the outfield continues to be a problem area.  At catcher, the Indians could roll with Roberto Perez and Austin Hedges and let Sandy Leon walk in free agency, or one of Perez or Hedges could be let go.

Keeping Lindor would add more stability to an overall unstable position player mix.  In the event that he is dealt, the Tribe could look internally to Yu Chang, Mike Freeman, or (with an aggressive promotion) prospect Tyler Freeman to fill the shortstop void, or Cleveland could themselves look to add a one-year veteran stopgap.  Chang or Mike Freeman could then be used at second base if Hernandez isn’t re-signed, though Hernandez has expressed interest in returning and might have a palatable enough asking price for the Tribe to explore a reunion.

Josh Naylor, acquired from the Padres as part of the Clevinger trade in August, will factor somewhere into the 2021 lineup, though it remains to be seen if the Canadian will be an everyday player at either left field or first base.  Jake Bauers could also be used at either position while Bobby Bradley is a first base candidate.  Star prospect Nolan Jones could also factor into the first base or corner outfield picture, as Jones is being worked out at other positions since Ramirez is occupies third base.

There are enough in-house candidates to provide the front office with some flexibility in their winter shopping.  If the outfield is a priority over second base, for example, the Indians could put their resources towards adding an outfielder and then making do with a Chang/Freeman platoon at the keystone.  The problem is, of course, that just about all of Cleveland’s internal candidates are either unproven at the MLB level or are coming off dreadful seasons.  (Oscar Mercado, for instance, went from Rookie Of The Year candidate in 2019 to possibly the worst hitter in baseball in 2020.)  While keeping Lindor helps this lineup, the lack of solid position player depth also serves as an argument for dealing him, since a trade might be the best method for the Tribe to acquire at least one younger, cheaper, MLB-ready regular.

Since spending will be a premium, the Tribe will be looking to find veterans at relative bargain prices.  The non-tender market is expected to be enormous, and every other team in baseball will also be hoping to scoop up lower-cost players from that same pool.  In a market where contract offers might be low across the board, the Indians have some attractive selling points for prospective free agents — plenty of opportunity for regular playing time, as well as the chance to play for a consistent contender with an elite pitching staff.

Speaking of that rotation, the Indians have the luxury of being able to focus much of their attention the position player side of the diamond thanks to their collection of arms.  Cleveland is one of the few teams that has the pitching depth to potentially make a starter available in a trade, and as the most expensive of the bunch, Carlos Carrasco might be the most obvious trade chip.  As Zack Meisel of The Athletic recently noted, however, Carrasco is such a clubhouse leader and important veteran voice on the perpetually young pitching staff that the team might see him as too valuable to move.  If the hitting is going to continue to be a question mark, the Tribe might also prioritize keeping their rotation as strong as possible.

Cleveland’s bullpen was almost as impressive as the starting staff in 2020.  Another contract with veteran southpaw Oliver Perez seems like a reasonable proposition, but Brad Hand’s $10MM club option looms as the relief corps’ biggest issue.  With James Karinchak positioned as a closer of the future, the Indians might prefer to install Karinchak now rather than pay $10MM to a reliever, even an outstanding one like Hand.  However, Hand is still such a quality pitcher that letting him go for nothing seems like something of a waste of an asset.

Exercising Hand’s option would at least allow the Indians the flexibility to explore trading him this winter, and if no deal could be found, $10MM for Hand might not be so hard to absorb if other salaries (i.e. Santana, Hernandez, Lindor) are also being moved out.  Cleveland could even explore packaging Lindor and Hand together in one blockbuster trade package, if another team wanted to make a big splash to contend in 2021.

With such a tremendous young rotation, the Indians’ window for a World Series is still open.  This offseason will be spent adding and subtracting from the lineup in search of the combination that will generate enough offense to give the pitching a chance.

Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates

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The Pirates were baseball’s worst team in 2020, although that came as little surprise following a winter where their only moves of note were to fire their manager, fire their GM and eventually trade away their best position player. They’ll have the top pick in next summer’s draft and another offseason that could subtract some notable names from the big league roster.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Gregory Polanco, OF: $14MM through 2021 (includes buyout of 2022 club option; contract also contains 2023 club option)

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using his 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Other Contractual Obligations

  • The Pirates technically owe Felipe Vazquez $7.75MM in 2021, but he’s not earning his salary while on the restricted list due to the abhorrent statutory sexual assault charges brought forth against him in 2019.

The Pirates will head into the 2020-21 offseason with an offense that scored the fewest runs in baseball (219) and a pitching staff that ranked 19th in ERA and 22nd in FIP. It’d be impossible to fix this club in just one offseason, but that’s of course not the goal of GM Ben Cherington and his staff, who surely knew they were signing on for a rebuilding effort when ownership fired former GM Neal Huntington.

Unfortunately for the Pirates, virtually every would-be trade chip on the roster saw his value disintegrate in what was a disastrous 2020 season. Chris Archer could have been one of the more intriguing arms on the trade market but didn’t pitch after undergoing thoracic outlet surgery. That procedure makes his $11MM club option a virtual lock to be bought out, which should formally close the books on one of the most lopsided trades in franchise history. Closer Keone Kela was a no-brainer trade piece but missed the early portion of the season on the Covid-19 injured list and immediately went down with a forearm issue that ultimately ended his season. Both physical setbacks surely deprived the Pirates of the chance to acquire some younger, cost-controlled talent.

Archer and Kela were far from the only injuries that hindered any would-be rebuilding efforts for Cherington & Co., however. Right-hander Joe Musgrove hit the IL with a triceps injury in early August and wasn’t able to return prior to the Aug. 31 trade deadline. He was still discussed in trades — the Blue Jays reportedly came close to striking a deal, in fact — but Musgrove stayed put and will surely be on the market again this winter. Hot-hitting Colin Moran could conceivably have garnered interest from teams in need of a bat; he was hitting .259/.326/.531 as of Aug. 23 — when he was hit by a pitch and diagnosed with a concussion that kept him out until the deadline had passed.

When all was said and done, Jarrod Dyson was the only player the Pirates moved — a deal that netted them a bit of extra cash to devote to international free agency. Musgrove and fellow righty starter Trevor Williams were discussed but never moved, and the Pirates’ remaining trade assets all flopped in terms of performance. Josh Bell, Adam Frazier and Gregory Polanco all hit so poorly that it’s hard to imagine many contenders even carried substantial interest — and that’s an issue that dovetails nicely into what a tough situation Cherington and his staff will face this winter. Here’s a look at what each of those three players did in 2020:

  • Bell: .226/.305/.364, eight home runs, career-worst 26.5 percent strikeout rate
  • Polanco: .153/.214/.325, seven home runs, career-worst 37.4 percent strikeout rate
  • Frazier: .230/.297/.364, seven home runs, career-worst 15.2 percent strikeout rate

Under normal circumstances, any of those three would ostensibly be an appealing trade chip. Polanco has battled injuries and inconsistency, but at his best in 2018, he hit .254/.340/.499 with 23 home runs, 32 doubles, six triples, a dozen steals and decent defense in right field. Bell crushed 37 home runs last year, and while he’s a poor defender at first base, he’s also a switch-hitter who is controlled through the 2022 season. Frazier isn’t as well-known but entered the 2020 season with a career .279/.342/.420 slash. Like Bell, he’s controlled through 2022.

Minor struggles or a slight down season might’ve helped to keep interest in that trio alive, but Bell and Polanco, in particular, ranked among MLB’s worst players. Of the 310 players in baseball to take at least 100 plate appearances this year, Bell’s -0.4 fWAR tied him for 283rd, while Polanco checked in at 303rd. Maybe a team would still like to acquire Bell while his salary is manageable and roll the dice on his two years of club control, but no one would pay a premium to do so. Polanco’s salary now looks mostly immovable. Frazier’s season wasn’t quite as dire, but a trade would still be selling quite low on a typically steady producer.

There are similar quandaries in the rotation. Trevor Williams got out to a solid start to his 2020 season but was shelled over his final six starts. In his final 31 frames, he yielded 28 earned runs on 41 hits (12 homers) and 13 walks with 26 punchouts. Chad Kuhl posted a respectable 4.27 ERA through 46 1/3 innings in his return from Tommy John surgery, but he also walked 28 batters and hit a pair in that time, resulting in an ugly 5.48 FIP and 4.98 xFIP. Jameson Taillon moved another year closer to free agency in 2020, but the Pirates can’t be expected to trade him when he hasn’t pitched since June 2019 due to his second Tommy John surgery. All three of those pitchers are controlled through 2022, so there’s time to build some value back up next season.

If there’s one bright spot from the rotation that should bring the Bucs a nice haul this winter, it’s the aforementioned Musgrove. His forearm troubles limited him to 39 2/3 frames in 2020, but he was quite good when healthy (3.86 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 55-to-16 K/BB ratio, 48.2 percent grounder rate). Thankfully for the Pirates, Musgrove finished well upon his return and was utterly dominant in his final two outings: 13 shoutout frames against the Indians and Cardinals with a 21-to-2 K/BB ratio. He’s controlled another two seasons, and with a 4.23 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 8.6 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 325 1/3 innings since being acquired by Pittsburgh, he’ll be among the more appealing arms on the trade market this winter — especially considering a projected salary south of $4MM.

There are certainly some other arms the Bucs could market to the league’s many pitching-needy clubs. Southpaw Steven Brault turned in a career-best 3.38 ERA and 3.92 FIP through 42 2/3 frames, working mostly as a starter. His previous track record was limited, but he’s controlled through 2023 (and sings one heck of a National Anthem). Right-hander Richard Rodriguez quietly posted a 2.70 ERA/2.85 FIP with a 34-to-5 K/BB ratio in 23 1/3 frames. Chris Stratton, acquired from the Angels for cash in 2019, has a 3.76 ERA and matching FIP with 10.1 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 76 2/3 innings as a Pirate. Both relievers are controlled through 2023 as well.

Perhaps behind the plate, 30-year-old Jacob Stallings could be an under-the-radar trade candidate. Stallings has hit .256/.326/.380 over the past two seasons while also serving as one of the best defenders in baseball. He’ll be 31 in December, but he’s controlled through 2024. It’d be a leap of faith for a contending club to plug him in as a starter, but over Stallings’ past 353 plate appearances, he’s been worth 2.4 fWAR and rWAR alike. If nothing else, his considerable platoon splits would make his right-handed bat a strong complement to another club’s left-handed-hitting starter.

Certainly, that’s a lot of focus on what the Pirates could subtract this winter and not much of a look at what they could add. It goes without saying that the Bucs won’t be players for any of the market’s top free agents or any high-profile players on the trade market. That doesn’t mean Cherington’s group will entirely eschew some free-agent additions, however. In fact, there’s good reason to argue for the Pirates being fairly aggressive with short-term adds in free agency.

Assuming a Musgrove trade is ultimately put together, there will be space in the rotation to attract free-agent starters in search of rebounds. Taillon and righty Mitch Keller should have spots locked down, and either of Williams or Kuhl could get another look if they’re not traded. Adding a rotation piece in need of a bounceback — or perhaps a young, non-tendered arm with some upside — would be wise.

The current group of free-agent starters includes rebound candidates like Anthony DeSclafani, Michael Wacha, Alex Wood, Tyler Chatwood and numerous others. The non-tender market will add alternatives, with Jose Urena, Vince Velasquez and Steven Matz standing out as a few speculative possibilities. The Pirates have a fairly pitcher-friendly park and a clear path to innings — something many contending clubs won’t be able to offer.

That’s even more true in the bullpen, where there should be numerous spots up for grabs in Spring Training. Promising a few spots to relievers in search of a rebound is sensible given the dearth of proven arms in the current group and the potential to spin any new signings into a decent return come July. We see this sort of deal come together every year around the league, with Kansas City’s recent Trevor Rosenthal addition standing as the most recent example.

With the entire Pirates outfield struggling badly in 2020, the Bucs would be a nice soft landing spot for any free agent whose market collapses — a near inevitability given the expected lack of spending among teams and the potential flooding of the market following the non-tender date. They’ll want to leave space to allow 2019 Rookie of the Year candidate Bryan Reynolds to rebound and, quite likely, to give waiver pickup Anthony Alford a platform to audition. Shortstop-turned-outfielder Cole Tucker should get a look as well. Still, there ought to be enough fluidity to grab a veteran who could provide stability, competitive at-bats and perhaps be flipped as was the case with Dyson this year.

The infield should be mostly set with breakout sensation Ke’Bryan Hayes, who had one of the best showings of any rookie once he was finally called to the big leagues, getting the third base job from the outset. Moran and Bell can pair to handle duties at first base and, if it’s implemented permanently in the NL, at designated hitter. Frazier’s track record should be enough to give him a mulligan on his poor 2020 showing if he isn’t traded. The possibility of a non-tender involving Bell, Frazier or Moran can’t be completely ruled out, but any would register as a surprise.

It’s also plausible that the Bucs could add at shortstop, where none of Kevin Newman, Kevin Kramer or the aforementioned Tucker has solidified himself. The 27-year-old Newman was terrific in 2019 but, like many of his teammates, floundered at the plate in 2020. Right hip surgery, meanwhile, wiped out Kramer’s entire season. Perhaps the Pirates could give a versatile option like Freddy Galvis or Jonathan Villar a look on a bounceback deal if neither is finding much of a market. There may be some speculation connecting the Bucs to KBO star Ha-Seong Kim, who’ll be posted this winter, given the team’s prior winning of the Jung Ho Kang bidding back in 2014. But Kim is a better player, should cost more and should also field offers from more competitive clubs; a match here would be a surprise.

Broadly speaking, it should be a quiet offseason for a Pirates club that, more than anything else, needs to see key 2019 contributors rebound in 2021. It will be critical for Bell, Polanco, Frazier, Williams and others to reestablish some trade value as their club control continues to dwindle. Should that not pan out, there could be a very different and difficult set of decisions for the Bucs to make this time next year. In the meantime, Pirates fans can look forward to watching Hayes build on his astounding debut effort as they continue to dream of what next year’s No. 1 overall pick might bring.

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