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2020-21 Offseason Outlook

Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks

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The 2020 season was bitterly disappointing for the Diamondbacks, who entered the year with playoff aspirations before floundering to the National League’s second-worst record (25-35). Despite that, the Diamondbacks haven’t been active this winter, and that may not change to any significant extent.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

This year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Free Agents

As last season was winding down for the Diamondbacks, CEO Derrick Hall expressed optimism about the team’s future but cautioned that it would be “far-fetched” for the Snakes to match their $124MM projected payroll from 2020. Hall hasn’t wavered from that since, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reported earlier this week.

Considering Hall’s stance, it’s no shock that the club has been relatively silent since the offseason commenced a couple of months ago. Arizona’s biggest move so far has been exercising right-hander Merrill Kelly’s $4.25MM option, which came as a bit of a surprise after he underwent thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in September. To Kelly’s credit, though, he performed quite well last year, leaving the D-backs content to roll the dice that he’ll return healthy and effective in 2021.

If Kelly is ready to go next year, the team’s rotation should be pretty much set (save for potential depth pickups, that is). Former Giants ace Madison Bumgarner had a stunningly poor year in 2020, his first season as a Diamondback. Nevertheless, with a contract that looks like an albatross, he isn’t going anywhere. Likewise, No. 1 starter Zac Gallen, Luke Weaver and Caleb Smith will stay in the fold. That group isn’t without promise. Bumgarner does have an enviable track record, so the hope is he’ll come close to revisiting his past form; Gallen has been outstanding during his first two seasons; Weaver was terrific two years ago, though he fell off a cliff in 2020 during his return from shoulder troubles; and Smith has at least shown the ability to miss bats.

The larger issue in the Diamondbacks’ pitching staff may be a bullpen that finished last year 18th in ERA and 25th in K-BB percentage. Stefan Crichton, Taylor Clarke and Alex Young are the only sure bets for next season’s bullpen, Zach Buchanan of The Athletic wrote earlier this winter. Among those three, only Crichton fared particularly well. All of the uncertainty leaves the D-backs in need of outside upgrades, but because of their financial situation, it’s up in the air whether they will actually make them. If they do, there are some free agents still available who could make sense as seemingly affordable targets. Kirby Yates, Alex Colome, Jake McGee, Sean Doolittle and ex-Diamondback Archie Bradley are just a handful of the familiar names looking for jobs on the relief market.

On the offensive side, Arizona stumbled to the majors’ 26th-ranked wRC+ and ended up 19th in runs scored. The Kole Calhoun signing worked out very well in Year 1, but the Diamondbacks lost one of their other top hitters – Starling Marte – in a trade with the Marlins at the August deadline. Their offense would look a lot stronger with Marte still around, but now it’s unclear who will start in center field on a regular basis next season. Ketel Marte, who went from 2019 MVP candidate to so-so in 2020, is a candidate, though the D-backs might rather have him at second base. Otherwise, there aren’t necessarily any other obvious choices on the roster, but Tim Locastro and Daulton Varsho could be possibilities. Jackie Bradley Jr. would seem to make sense as a free-agent pickup, especially considering the longtime Red Sox’s ties to former Boston executive and current Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen. However, Hazen is hamstrung by the Diamondbacks’ budget, so a Bradley signing might be out of the question.

Aside from second and center (depending on where they mainly deploy Ketel Marte), most of the Diamondbacks’ position player group looks to be set. Calhoun’s coming back, while catchers Carson Kelly and Stephen Vogt should continue handling that spot (and Varsho could get some time there). The same can be said for first baseman Christian Walker, third baseman Eduardo Escobar and shortstop Nick Ahmed. Left fielder David Peralta is also scheduled to return, though he has come up in plenty of trade rumors in the past (including this week). He’s due a guaranteed $15MM over the next two seasons, and though that isn’t an exorbitant amount, maybe the D-backs will be tempted to deal him if they want to save money.

While the offseason is still somewhat young, signs are pointing to the Diamondbacks bringing back mostly the same roster they put on the field in 2020. As part of his season-ending comments, Hall stated that there was “no indication that anyone wants to make changes as a result of this year. I also think it’s so difficult to judge the performance of either leadership or the majority of the players in such a short and strange season.” 

Although those words probably weren’t music to Diamondbacks’ fans ears, perhaps they can take solace in knowing this was a team that won a respectable 85 games just two years ago. However, they’re undoubtedly facing an uphill climb if they want to break their three-year playoff drought in 2021.

Offseason Outlook: New York Mets

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The Mets are off to a fast start under new owner Steve Cohen, but there’s more work to be done this offseason.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

This year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Free Agents

After years under the yoke of the much-maligned Wilpons, Mets fans were understandably thrilled when the duo sold the franchise to Cohen – who became the wealthiest owner in the majors as soon as he took over the club. Cohen continued to excite the fans at his introductory press conference, saying: “I’m not in this to be mediocre. I want something great.”

There was a lot of mediocrity during the Wilpon regime, evidenced in part by the Mets’ four-year playoff drought. The two most recent unsuccessful seasons came under general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, whom the team parted with once Cohen took the reins. Cohen brought back Sandy Alderson, Van Wagenen’s predecessor, as team president. Alderson subsequently hired former Diamondbacks executive Jared Porter as the GM.

Even before Porter entered the fray, the Mets got to work in upgrading their roster. They quickly made a significant free-agent addition in former Twins right-hander Trevor May – one of the most coveted relievers on the market – on a two-year, $15.5MM contract. He’ll join Edwin Diaz, Dellin Betances, Jeurys Familia, Brad Brach and Robert Gsellman as stone-cold locks for next year’s bullpen. While most of the unit is in place, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the club further bolster it with at least one more high-profile pickup. The Mets have interest in the No. 1 free-agent reliever available, former Athletics closer Liam Hendriks, though he’s just one possibility. Brad Hand, Blake Treinen, Trevor Rosenthal, Alex Colome, Kirby Yates and Jake McGee represent other notable options in free agency. On paper, Hand or McGee would make sense for a Mets bullpen devoid of left-handers.

May and the rest of the Mets’ relievers will be throwing to newly acquired catcher James McCann – the first big-money position player signing of the Cohen era. McCann struggled earlier in his career with the Tigers, but the proverbial light bulb seemed to come on during the previous two years as a member of the White Sox. Thanks to his vast improvement in Chicago, McCann scored a four-year, $40.6MM guarantee. Maybe he wasn’t the catcher Mets fans were hoping for (J.T. Realmuto is the best backstop in the game and the top free agent at the position), but McCann makes for a nice consolation prize.

It’s fair to say the Mets aren’t going to stop upgrading their offense with McCann. In fact, it’s quite possible they’ll make a far bigger splash in an effort to better their group of position players. There has been no shortage of speculation connecting the team to free-agent outfielder and Connecticut native George Springer, who MLBTR predicts will land a five-year, $125MM contract this winter. The Mets already have a crowded outfield picture with Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo and Dominic Smith, so it’s unclear what a Springer signing would mean for any of them. Regardless, Springer would presumably take over as the Mets’ starting center fielder – a role Nimmo held in 2020.

The infield has also been a source of rumors centering on the Mets, particularly in the wake of Robinson Cano’s season-long suspension for performance-enhancing drugs. That wiped Cano’s massive salary off the books, but it also took away a player who slashed an excellent .316/.352/.544 with 10 home runs in 182 plate appearances last season. That’s going to be a tough void to fill, though the Mets do have a capable in-house replacement in Jeff McNeil. Of course, that’s assuming the Mets don’t keep McNeil in a super-utility role or even use him in a trade. If he’s not their second baseman, they could steal free agent DJ LeMahieu from the Yankees. Other than LeMahieu, there don’t appear to be any second base upgrades over McNeil in free agency or on the trade front.

There is a bit less certainty on the left side of New York’s infield, but that’s not to say it’s in bad shape. Third baseman J.D. Davis continued to hit in 2020 (albeit not as well as he did the prior year), while Andres Gimenez stepped up as a rookie and outperformed Amed Rosario at short. The Mets could simply stick with Davis and Gimenez, but it’s worth noting both positions feature prominent free agents and trade possibilities. LeMahieu and former Met Justin Turner are available as potential third base choices, while Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien and Andrelton Simmons remain unsigned at short.

Trade speculation has pointed the Mets toward Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado, who’s due a whopping $199MM over the next years. If acquiring him isn’t in the cards, the Mets could make a splash at short by landing the Indians’ Francisco Lindor or the Rockies’ Trevor Story. Both players are under control for just one more season, but considering Cohen is flush with cash, the Mets could conceivably extend either player within the next year. Alderson did indicate earlier in the offseason that he’d prefer to keep his young talent in place, which points more to the free-agent route than a trade. However, he suggested earlier this week that the Mets will be involved in the trade market for high-priced players on long-term contracts (Arenado fits the bill) and players on expiring deals (Lindor and Story check that box).

A year ago at this time, it looked as if the Mets’ rotation would be a major strength in 2020. Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman were supposed to be among the premier trios in baseball, but that plan went up in smoke before the season even began. Ultimately, deGrom was the only member of the group who threw a single pitch in 2020. Syndergaard underwent Tommy John surgery in March, and Stroman opted out because of COVID-19. The Mets aren’t going to get Syndergaard back until sometime next summer, but Stroman will return after accepting their $18.9MM qualifying offer.

DeGrom, Stroman and David Peterson give the Mets three sure bets for their starting staff as they await Syndergaard’s comeback, but the unit still needs work in the meantime. It’s unclear, for instance, whether Seth Lugo will start or go back to the bullpen in 2021. And while the Mets did keep Steven Matz around on a $5.2MM salary, they’d be hard-pressed to count on him in the wake of his awful season.

Considering the uncertainty surrounding Lugo and Matz, expectations are that the Mets will acquire at least one proven starter in the coming months. The arrival of Cohen seems to make the team a realistic suitor for reigning NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer, the leading free agent available at any position. The rest of the free-agent starting class isn’t nearly as exciting, though longtime Yankee Masahiro Tanaka, Jake Odorizzi, Jose Quintana, Corey Kluber, Adam Wainwright and James Paxton are among accomplished arms looking for jobs. The trade market lost an enticing starter when Lance Lynn went from the Rangers to the White Sox earlier this month, but former Cy Young winner Blake Snell (Rays) and Joe Musgrove (Pirates) have the potential to move. Either of those two would help the Mets’ rotation.

Whatever the Mets do for the remainder of the offseason, the Cohen-led organization isn’t going to make moves that hamper their goal of building a perennial winner.

“You build champions, you don’t buy them,” Cohen stated during his introduction. “We’ve got a great core on this team, and we’re going to get better and I plan to make the investments we need to succeed. We want to win now, but we’re also building for the long term.”

Having already spent on May, McCann and Stroman, Cohen has so far lived up to his promise to invest in the roster. It’s anyone’s guess what the Mets will do next, but thanks to their new owner, they’re one of the truly intriguing teams to watch during what has been a slow winter in Major League Baseball.

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers

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For the first time since 1988, the Dodgers are World Series champions. Regardless of what they do this offseason, they’ll enter 2021 as favorites to win it all again, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the club make significant moves in order to bolster its chances of a repeat.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Free Agents

There is very little to dislike about this Dodgers roster, though the team is facing some notable losses in free agency. It starts with third baseman Justin Turner, who has been an unexpected gem for the team since it signed him to a minor league contract before the 2014 campaign. The bearded Turner has since emerged as one of the faces of the Dodgers and one of their most productive players, but considering he’s 36 years old and there may not be a universal designated hitter in 2021, it’s possible the Dodgers will move on in the coming months.

If the Dodgers do let Turner walk, there are a few alternate routes they could take at the hot corner. Los Angeles could stay within and hand the position to Edwin Rios, who saw quite a bit of time at third in 2020, or shift shortstop Corey Seager there. Otherwise, Kris Bryant (Cubs), Nolan Arenado (Rockies) or even free-agent infielder DJ LeMahieu could end up as targets. An Arenado acquisition seems especially unlikely, though, in part because the Rockies and Dodgers are division rivals. ESPN’s Buster Olney recently reported there are “monumental” roadblocks standing in the way of a potential Arenado-Dodgers union.

Of course, one can’t rule out another major trade that would deliver a franchise shortstop to the Dodgers. They’re certainly in good hands at the position with Seager, but if they want to shift him to third, trading for the Indians’ Francisco Lindor would make sense. Lindor seems like a surefire bet to go in a trade this offseason because he’s projected to make anywhere from $17.5MM to $21MM in arbitration next year, and the Indians are a frugal franchise. The Dodgers have more than enough young talent to put together a package for Lindor, and as such a wealthy franchise, the four-time All-Star’s salary would not stand in their way. So, in short, the Dodgers are as logical a Lindor suitor as anyone.

Moving to the outfield, the Dodgers may wave goodbye to Joc Pederson, who has been part of the organization since it selected him in the 11th round in 2010. Pederson debuted in 2014 and has since delivered above-average offensive production, though the left-handed swinger has struggled versus same-handed pitchers. That doesn’t mean the Dodgers won’t bring Pederson back, but it doesn’t seem all that likely when considering the talent the team has in its outfield. Right fielder Mookie Betts obviously isn’t going anywhere. Cody Bellinger played the majority of the year in center, and he’s obviously there to stay. Pederson played 20 of 60 games in left, but that total fell short of AJ Pollock’s 22. The Dodgers also have Chris Taylor in the fold as someone who can play multiple outfield positions.

On the pitching side, the Dodgers are rife with quality arms, though they are dealing with some upheaval in their bullpen. The club made a notable trade last week when it acquired onetime All-Star closer Corey Knebel from the Brewers. Knebel was terrible over a small sample of work last season, but it doesn’t seem fair to write him off over what was his first action since undergoing March 2019 Tommy John surgery. As recently as 2018, Knebel was a terrific reliever; if healthy, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him at least re-emerge as a useful part of the Dodgers’ bullpen (especially considering their track record of getting the most out of veterans).

An effective Knebel would help the Dodgers replace Blake Treinen, Jake McGee and Pedro Baez, who are each free agents. Treinen was solid for the Dodgers after signing for $10MM last winter; McGee was even better on a per-inning basis after inking a low-risk deal in July; and Baez once again prevented numbers at a respectable clip. So how do the Dodgers replace those three? Well, they could re-sign any of them, but they’re otherwise looking at a free-agent market with a slew of familiar veteran relievers. And you can’t necessarily rule out another trade with the Brewers, who don’t seem to be closing the door on letting go of lights-out lefty Josh Hader. As with Lindor, the Dodgers have the talent to put together a deal for Hader.

The way the Dodgers assemble their bullpen will affect how they construct their starting staff (and vice versa). Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler have their spots locked down, and the same is probably true for David Price (if he returns next year after opting out in 2020). Beyond that group, Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May – who combined for 28 starts last season – remain clear candidates for rotation spots. All three look more than qualified, but if the Dodgers would rather make a sizable splash (whether that means for another starter or a position player), at least one of them could fall out of contention or even be dealt elsewhere. The team has the money to sign the No. 1 free agent available, NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer, and it’s worth noting president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman was at the helm of Tampa Bay’s front office when the Rays drafted 2018 AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell in 2011. Snell could now be a trade candidate for the Rays, so it’s hard not to connect him to the Dodgers partly because of the Friedman connection. Barring the acquisition of a front-line starter, though, the Dodgers don’t look as if they really have to do much in their rotation. It’s a good-looking group as it is.

However this offseason goes, the Dodgers will enter 2021 as a well-oiled machine that should once again push for a World Series championship. But considering their financial prowess, their array of talent and many other teams hesitant to spend because of the COVID-19 pandemic, this winter could give the Dodgers a chance to become even better. That’s a scary thought for the rest of Major League Baseball.

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

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After a ninth consecutive playoff miss, Phillies owner John Middleton opted to move on from general manager Matt Klentak. Now, two years after Middleton’s infamous “stupid money” comments, the Phillies seem to be putting out signals cautioning against a splashy winter.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Bryce Harper, OF: $274MM through 2031
  • Zack Wheeler, RHP: $96.25MM through 2024
  • Aaron Nola, RHP: $31MM through 2022 (includes $4.25MM buyout of $16MM club option for 2023)
  • Jean Segura, INF: $29.5MM through 2022 (includes $1MM buyout of $17MM club option for 2023)
  • Andrew McCutchen, OF: $23MM through 2021 (includes $3MM buyout of $15MM club option for 2022)
  • Scott Kingery, INF/OF: $19MM through 2023 (includes $1MM buyout of $13MM club option for 2024; contract also contains club options in 2025-26)
  • Odubel Herrera, OF: $12.5MM through 2021 (includes $2.5MM buyout of 2022 club option; Herrera is no longer on the 40-man roster)

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

It’s been nearly two months since Matt Klentak stepped down as Phillies general manager and accepted a reassignment to another position within the organization, yet we still don’t have any clear indication as to who will take over the reins. President Andy MacPhail, a former general manager of the Twins and Orioles himself, held onto his title amid the team’s front office shuffling, and assistant GM Ned Rice stepped into the GM role on an interim basis.

That pair brings decades of baseball operations experience to the table, but it’s rather befuddling that the next steps remain so unclear. The Phils reportedly gauged interest from Theo Epstein but were rebuffed, as the now-former Cubs president instead prefers to take at least a year away from the game. Former D-backs and Padres GM Josh Byrnes has interviewed, but there’s no indication as to whether he’s being strongly considered by Middleton.

The Athletic’s Matt Gelb suggested in early October that the Phils might wait for MacPhail to retire at the end of the 2021 season before bringing in a hire, but that’s a puzzling approach in and of itself. If the end result of Klentak resigning is that he remains with the organization in a new role while his top lieutenant, Rice, continues to work alongside MacPhail — how much have things truly changed?

Klentak increasingly drew the ire of Phillies fans, with many voicing dissatisfaction regarding the team’s stalled extension talks with star catcher J.T. Realmuto, who is now a free agent after rejecting a qualifying offer. That seems like misplaced frustration, frankly, as the final say on whether to pay Realmuto on a long-term arrangement lands with ownership, not the general manager. Over the past several months, most reports out of Philadelphia have suggested that the team is not optimistic about its chances to retain Realmuto.

If Realmuto walks, that seems like a Middleton-driven decision that would have happened regardless of who is in the GM’s chair. Yet at the press conference announcing the changing of the guard in the front office, Middleton almost seemed to endeavor to take credit for approving the Realmuto swap without taking blame for the failure to extend him. “…[M]y position was, I’d be willing to trade Sixto as long as you extend J.T.,” Middleton said at the time. “And if you don’t extend J.T., I wouldn’t trade Sixto.”

There’s a disconnect in those comments, plain and simple. Middleton implies that he held considerable influence over the acquisition of Realmuto but left the matter of an extension solely to his baseball operations outfit. That seems unlikely, and if it’s in fact accurate, that type of inconsistency with regard to autonomy is a failing in and of itself. It’s hard not to wonder if an experienced GM would look on from the outside and be turned off by an owner trying to take credit for the good and shirk responsibility for the bad.

None of this is to say that there weren’t plenty of misfires during Klentak’s time as general manager, of course. The Phillies’ catastrophic bullpen implosion over the past two seasons is glaring, and it seemed no matter what moves the front office made to rectify the situation, the outcome was poor. The signing of Carlos Santana that pushed Rhys Hoskins into an ill-suited left field role clearly did not pay dividends. Jake Arrieta’s three-year deal didn’t work out, either. At the end of the day, a five-year span of no playoff appearances in a big market will be enough to doom any baseball operations leader, as we saw not only in Philadelphia but in Anaheim this winter.

Front office composition aside, however, the bottom line for the Phillies this winter is that they’re not sure who will be catching games for them in 2021. They also have holes at shortstop and, to a lesser extent, in center field. On the pitching side of things, from the back of the rotation to the entirety of the relief corps, questions abound. The Phillies’ ability to strengthen these flaws are dependent on Middleton’s willingness to spend in the wake of 2020 revenue losses, and indications put forth thus far by both the owner and MacPhail have not been encouraging.

“At this time almost every club, honestly, it’s more about reduction of players than it is adding,” MacPhail said in late October (link via The Athletic’s Meghan Montemurro). “…But the likelihood of a significant add, I think, in the short term or even mid term is not very high.” There may be no better indication of the Phillies’ reluctance to spend than the fact that a team with a historically bad bullpen in 2020 allowed Brad Hand to pass through waivers unclaimed at $10MM. (Although, to be fair to the Phils, so did every other club in the game.)

To get a better handle on the Phillies’ outlook in the days and months to come, the payroll as a whole needs to be taken in. The Phils have seven players on guaranteed contracts in 2021 — counting Odubel Herrera, who was outrighted off the 40-man roster but is still owed this year’s salary. That group checks in at a weighty $108.5MM, and the remaining slate of arbitration-eligible players could push the Phils up to nearly $127MM. Add in pre-arbitration players to round out the roster, and the Phillies’ payroll could top $135MM before they make a single addition.

Vince Velasquez and Hector Neris stand out as potential non-tender candidates. Cutting bait on that duo would bring the Phils back into the $125MM range but would also create more holes; Neris has served as the team’s closer in recent seasons, while Velasquez has been a fifth starter despite (at best) inconsistent results.

The Phillies were set to open the 2020 season with a payroll upwards of $186MM, so there’s certainly some breathing room between that mark and this year’s current levels. However, the expectation is that Middleton plans to reduce payroll. There’s no set number that’s been floated, but the assumption clearly should not be that the Phillies will return to those heights in 2021.

For that reason, retaining Realmuto could be a long shot. He’s spoken in the past about advancing the market for catchers, and while it’s nearly impossible to see him topping Joe Mauer’s record eight-year, $184MM contract, he could set his sights on besting Mauer’s average annual value of $23MM. If that’s the case, Realmuto would be an exceptionally steep add for the Phils at this time, even if there’s some backloading of the deal to offset the hit in the early years. Of course, backloading the deal would come with its own complications; the Phils are already paying Harper and Zack Wheeler a combined $49.5MM in 2024, and Middleton may not be keen on locking in upwards of $75MM in salary to three players a whole four years down the road.

Should Realmuto land elsewhere — he’s been connected to the Mets, Blue Jays and Nationals, among other clubs — the market does present alternatives. James McCann and Yadier Molina bring two starting-caliber options to the free-agent pool, and the trade market could feature several names, including manager Joe Girardi’s former Yankees backstop, Gary Sanchez. The Phils are already reported to like McCann as a fallback to Realmuto.

The Phillies’ other question marks on the position-player side of the roster lie up the middle as well. Rookie of the Year finalist Alec Bohm has third base locked down now, and Rhys Hoskins will be back at first base once he’s sufficiently recovered from Tommy John surgery. Less clear, however, is the shortstop situation now that Didi Gregorius is back on the open market in search of a multi-year deal. Such a contract could come from the Phils, of course, but that again is dependent on Middleton’s tolerance for spending this winter. Jean Segura and Scott Kingery are on hand as potential options at second base and shortstop, although Segura doesn’t profile as a strong defensive option at the position at this point.

If the Phillies do bring in a shortstop — be it Gregorius, Marcus Semien, Andrelton Simmons or another option — they could play Segura at second base and pair Kingery in center field with Adam Haseley. The versatile Kingery struggled immensely at the plate in 2020, although he had a strong 2019 campaign and may have been severely impacted by a pre-season bout with Covid-19.

Kingery declined to make excuses for his poor showing on multiple occasions early in the year but eventually acknowledged that his overall energy level was not back to normal (link via the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber). As of mid-August, Kingery was still dealing with repeated shortness of breath and fatigue. It’s easy to imagine a healthier version of Kingery trending back toward 2019’s .258/.315/.474 output, and depending on the extent to which the Phillies plan to reduce payroll, a rebound from him could be one of the keys to their 2021 fate. Kingery was a league-average bat with plus baserunning and average or better glovework at three positions in 2019, after all. Being able to rely on him in center and/or at shortstop could prove pivotal.

If the Phils prefer Kingery/Segura in the middle infield and want to look outside the organization for some outfield help, there are affordable options to pair with Haseley’s lefty bat. Kevin Pillar, Jake Marisnick and Cameron Maybin are all free agents. Enrique Hernandez has a strong track record against southpaws and could provide cover both in center field and around the infield, making him a nice fit (particularly if Bohm needs to spend time at first base early in the year while Hoskins finishes mending).

In the rotation, the Phillies’ need isn’t so dire. Aaron Nola and Wheeler are a formidable one-two punch, with Zach Eflin serving as a reliable source of innings in the third or fourth spot. Top prospect Spencer Howard struggled in 2020 but is still highly regarded. He’ll get another look next year.

That quartet has the makings of a competitive group, but the trade of Nick Pivetta, the possible non-tender of Velasquez and some struggles from prospects elsewhere in the organization all suggest that the Phils could benefit from a low-cost veteran to round out the group. The best course of action could simply be to see which veterans are left standing and willing to accept a low-base deal late in the winter. If they’re willing to spend more for some mid-rotation innings, names like Masahiro Tanaka, Jake Odorizzi and Jose Quintana are all available.

Looking at the Philadelphia bullpen, there’s little sign of immediate help for a group that in 2020 was one of the least-effective units in recent history. Several names are already gone — Brandon Workman, David Phelps, Jose Alvarez and Tommy Hunter are free agents. Heath Hembree was outrighted.

While the early market for free-agent starters has been strong, the relief market increasingly looks like an area where the “bloodbath” feared by many agents could manifest. Not only did Hand go unclaimed on waivers, but several seemingly reasonable club options on relievers were instead bought out. The expected glut of non-tenders could add another couple dozen relievers to the market.

For a Phillies club that doesn’t want to spend money but badly needs to add multiple arms to the relief corps, that could prove to be an ideal situation. The Phils could opt to spend big on one reliever and add several cost-effective names to round out the group, or more evenly distribute whatever resources they’re allotted to diversify risk and add several steady, competent arms to the bullpen.

The Phillies have underachieved for years now, and with several glaring holes on the roster and signals that they don’t plan to aggressively fill said needs, they could be in for more of the same. That said, this is still a group with a very talented core. The combination of Harper, Nola, Bohm, Hoskins and Wheeler is a strong start to any roster. If the Phils can shed some salary in creative ways or if Middleton changes course with a more aggressive financial approach, it’s possible to see this team contending.

Flawed as they may have been over the past three seasons, the Phillies have only narrowly missed the postseason each year. The NL East is more competitive than ever now that a young Marlins club is on the rise, but there’s enough talent in the Phillies’ core group to fuel a competitive unit next year if MacPhail/Rice or a new general manager push the right buttons.

Offseason Outlook: Washington Nationals

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The Nationals never really got on track in 2020, perhaps because the shortened season didn’t allow them time for the type of turn-around that defined their 2019 championship run.  With a number of key members of that title team heading into free agency, the Nats will look to reload for a return to the playoffs.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Washington took care of some early business in re-signing Josh Harrison before the free agent market even opened, bringing the veteran utilityman back on a one-year, $1MM deal.  Between retaining Harrison and also adding former Diamondback Yasmany Tomas on a minor league contract for the first base mix, the Nats have taken steps to address an infield that could potentially be quite similar or quite different to 2020’s collection of talent.

We know Trea Turner will be at shortstop, and that Starlin Castro will return from a broken wrist to assume another everyday role, likely at second base.  Carter Kieboom and Luis Garcia will both continue to get looks at the MLB level, though Kieboom struggled badly in his first extended taste of Major League action and Garcia didn’t hit much better while filling for Castro at second base.  Harrison provides bench depth at multiple positions, Tomas or rookie Jake Noll could factor into first base, and it’s probably safe to assume that the Nats and longtime first baseman Ryan Zimmerman will explore another one-year pact after Zimmerman opted out of the 2020 season.

There’s certainly some room for growth here, which is why the Nationals have reportedly checked in on two major names in DJ LeMahieu and Kris Bryant.  Both players have been Nats targets in the past, though LeMahieu has a much bigger price tag now than he did in his previous trip through free agency in the 2018-19 offseason, and landing Bryant could require some tricky negotiating with the Cubs.  With Bryant coming off a down year, only one year of club control remaining and an $18.6MM projected arbitration salary in that final year, Chicago’s asking price for Bryant has surely lowered since last offseason.  But, these same concerns could also lead the Nationals to prefer LeMahieu as a longer-term answer.

Of course, the x-factor is whether or not the Nats will spend on higher-priced talent, as recent reports suggest players like LeMahieu or Bryant might not be on the radar.  It isn’t yet known whether GM Mike Rizzo will have the financial resources to make any significant additions, or if the front office will just have to avoid the top shelf in offseason shopping endeavors.

All of Washington’s free agents account for over $40MM in salary coming off the books, and the Nats also save in pure 2021 dollars since so much of the salaries owed to Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg are deferred.  That said, D.C. has a projected payroll of just under $170MM for 2021 with a luxury tax number roughly $163.9MM, so ownership may not want to stretch that significant budget much further.  One would imagine the Nationals also still want to set aside future payroll space for potential long-term extensions with Turner and Juan Soto, and the Nats will likely have some conversations with Scherzer about his future as he enters his final year under contract.

Until we get more of an idea about what the team is willing to spend, thoughts of acquiring LeMahieu, Bryant, or perhaps J.T. Realmuto may have to go on the backburner.  That said, the unsettled nature of Washington’s position player mix gives Rizzo some flexibility in looking for upgrades.

The Nats have the freedom to acquire a one-position type — hypothetically, let’s say Kolten Wong at second base — to lock down a single position and go from there, or they could give manager Dave Martinez even more options for late-game maneuvering by adding other multi-positional players.  While Harrison is already back in the fold, it also wouldn’t be a surprise if the Nationals looked to re-sign another of its veteran free agents (i.e. Howie Kendrick, Asdrubal Cabrera, Brock Holt) to further add depth.

The outfield also represents an area of need, as the Nats declined Adam Eaton’s option and opened up a hole in either left or right field.  Soto will probably remain in his customary left field spot, though the superstar has played some right field and could change positions if the Nats landed a solid left fielder.  Victor Robles remains the incumbent center fielder after a bout of COVID-19 led to a brutal year both offensively and defensively, and the Nationals can only hope that a healthy Robles can rediscover his 2019 form.

It might behoove the Nats to find an outfielder with center field capability just in case Robles struggles again, though Andrew Stevenson might be tabbed for a larger role after posting big numbers in limited at-bats in both 2019 and 2020.  Depending on how big D.C. was willing or able to go with adding outfield help, acquiring Michael Brantley, Jackie Bradley Jr., or Joc Pederson would make some sense (and give Washington another left-handed bat), or the club could opt for a part-timer to share playing time with Stevenson and Harrison.

The presence of a DH spot in National League lineups in 2021 would also help Washington in finding another hitter, allowing for even more time-sharing and position-shifting.  Someone like a Brantley (or a Marcell Ozuna, at the higher end of the market) would be even more of a fit for the District if the universal designated hitter was a sure thing, though a league decision on that front doesn’t appear to be imminent.

Let’s turn to the rotation, where the biggest question is how Strasburg will rebound.  The right-hander tossed only five innings in 2020 due to hand problems that eventually resulted in carpal tunnel syndrome surgery, thus getting his seven-year, $215MM contract off to an ominous start in its first year.  Scherzer and Patrick Corbin were also both more solid in 2020 than their usual excellent selves, and the Nationals surely hope that this dip in form was just temporary and not a sign of decline.

Since Anibal Sanchez’s option wasn’t exercised, Erick Fedde, Austin Voth, Joe Ross (who opted out of the 2020 season) and Wil Crowe are all in the mix for the fourth and fifth starter’s jobs.  Particularly since there might be some doubts about the top three starters, the Nationals will certainly look into adding a veteran pitcher to help deepen the rotation.  Trevor Bauer is probably too pricey a fit, but since Bauer might be the only free agent arm who could command a major multi-year deal, D.C. has its pick of several free agents that might require three years at the most.

Names like Masahiro Tanaka or Jake Odorizzi represent the upper tier of remaining available pitchers in the non-Bauer class, and this is another area that represents some fluidity for the Nationals.  If they don’t want to spend a ton of resources on pitching, they could try to find essentially the next Anibal Sanchez — a veteran coming off a good season and with perhaps a couple of red flags on the resume that the Nats don’t feel are a big concern (or can be overlooked).

The bullpen continued to be an issue for Washington, and after investing in Daniel Hudson and Will Harris last winter, the Nats might not want to make more big expenditures on relief pitching.  The team could opt to mostly stand pat and hope that Hudson pitches better as the preferred closing option, or perhaps look out for other closer-capable free agents, or perhaps elevate an internal candidate like Tanner Rainey into more high-leverage moments.  D.C. has already re-signed Aaron Barrett to a minors contract and added minor leaguer Sam Clay on an MLB deal, but some more tinkering (left-handed relief is a particular need) is sure to come as the Nationals try to finally fix their relief corps.

With all the early focus on the Braves’ free agent pitching signings, the Marlins’ hiring of Kim Ng as general manager, the Mets’ expected splurge under new owner Steve Cohen, and the Phillies’ front office machinations, the Nationals have largely flown under the radar this winter.  But, with so many needs around the diamond, the Nats could end up being one of the offseason’s busier teams.  Given Rizzo’s track record of success in both major and seemingly minor acquisitions, possibilities abound for the Nationals in the coming months.

Offseason Outlook: Miami Marlins

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Even the game’s largest Covid-19 outbreak couldn’t derail the Marlins’ Cinderella season, as the Fish surprised the league with a 31-29 record and went on to topple the Cubs in the Wild Card round of this year’s expanded postseason format. With a slew of young talent bubbling up to the Majors, newly minted general manager Kim Ng will be aiming to bring the club back to October baseball in 2021.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Much of the Marlins’ surprising success in 2020 can be attributed to the team’s enviable collection of young pitching. Right-handers Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, Elieser Hernandez and Sixto Sanchez each gave strong performances, with Alcantara and Lopez soaking up the most innings. Alcantara, Lopez and Hernandez are all locked into next year’s rotation, manager Don Mattingly said after the Marlins’ postseason run ended. Sanchez’s omission from the mix may surprise some, given his strong rookie effort, although he’ll surely have the opportunity to cement his spot in Spring Training.

Behind that quartet of righties is a mix of intriguing but still unproven arms. Righty Jordan Yamamoto had some success in 2019 but was clobbered in 2020. Prospects Nick Neidert, Braxton Garrett and Trevor Rogers all struggled in small samples of work as well. Veteran righty Jose Urena is out of the mix after yesterday’s DFA, although that’s hardly a surprise given that he stood out as one of the game’s likelier non-tender candidates. The Marlins have some intriguing yet-to-debut options (e.g. Edward Cabrera), but their pitching depth was thinned out a bit when they sent Caleb Smith and Humberto Mejia to the Diamondbacks in this August’s Starling Marte trade.

Beyond Alcantara and Lopez, Marlins starters have at best limited track records of MLB success. Even Hernandez, whom Mattingly proclaimed as a member of the rotation, pitched just 25 2/3 solid innings in 2020; in 2018-19, he posted an ERA north of 5.00. The youth and years of team control are obviously appealing, but the Marlins would still be well served to bring in a veteran both to help mentor the staff and to provide some stable innings. Names like Rick Porcello, Martin Perez and south Florida native Mike Fiers are all available if the team’s priority is dependable innings, and there are plenty of interesting names looking for bouncebacks from injured seasons (e.g. James Paxton, Jose Quintana, Corey Kluber).

With Kintzler and Boxberger both returning to the market, the Marlins will have some work to do to round out their bullpen. Miami could’ve retained Kintzler at a seemingly reasonable $4MM price point, but there were quite a few solid reliever options declined this year. Perhaps the hope is that recently acquired righty Adam Cimber, another ground-ball specialist, can provide similar production at a fraction of the rate. Miami picked him up from the Indians in exchange for cash, and he’s projected to earn $800K via arbitration. Even with Cimber aboard, it’s likely that the Marlins will talk to Kintzler about coming back at a lower price than his option would have guaranteed.

More intriguing bullpen options will become available after the non-tender deadline. The Marlins seem likely to again look for affordable veteran help to complement their in-house options, particularly with an unsettled mix at the back of the ’pen. Two offseasons ago, the Marlins did quite well on a low-cost, one-year deal with Sergio Romo. Last winter, it was Kintzler. It seems reasonable to expect a similar approach this time around, even with a new GM at the helm.

Turning to the offense, the Marlins have plenty of intriguing youngsters on the cusp of Major League readiness, but struggles behind the plate could lead the club to look outside the organization for upgrades. Jorge Alfaro was a key piece of the trade that sent J.T. Realmuto to Philadelphia — along with the aforementioned Sanchez — but he’s yet to solidify himself as the team’s long-term replacement for Realmuto. In two years as a Marlin, Alfaro has a .256/.306/.410 batting line, and both his offense and defense took marked steps back in 2020. By the time the playoffs rolled around, Miami was starting the light-hitting Chad Wallach over Alfaro.

Miami doesn’t figure to spend particularly aggressively in free agency. A Realmuto reunion is off the table, but any of the market’s second-tier options — James McCann and Yadier Molina headline the group — could seemingly fit into the budget for a team whose current payroll projection check in shy of $60MM now that Urena no longer factors into the mix. Additional trades or non-tenders could yet lower that mark.

The trade market could offer myriad other possibilities. Many Marlins decision-makers have Yankees roots and are familiar with Gary Sanchez. There’s bound to be speculation about the Cubs moving Willson Contreras as they look to cut costs. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently explored the reasons that San Diego might move Francisco Mejia. The Blue Jays have a glut of catchers on their 40-man roster.

Looking up and down the rest of the lineup, the needs aren’t as palpable. The outfield should be more or less set with Corey Dickerson’s contract locking him into left field and Starling Marte set to return as the primary center fielder. Garrett Cooper hit well in 2020, but if he falters in right field, the Marlins are rife with corner-outfield alternatives; any of Jon Berti, Monte Harrison, Harold Ramirez, Magneuris Sierra, Jesus Sanchez or Lewis Brinson could earn an increased role there.

If somehow that entire bunch struggles, the club could always consider moving third baseman Brian Anderson back to right field. Between Berti, Miguel Rojas, Isan Diaz and Jazz Chisholm, the Fish should be able to cover third base, shortstop and second base even if Anderson is needed in the outfield. It’s possible the Marlins still bring in a versatile veteran infielder, if only so they have the option of allowing both Diaz and Chisholm to continue to develop in Triple-A without compromising their bench mix.

Over at first base, the Marlins got a big rebound performance out of Jesus Aguilar and will surely tender him a contract after he raked at a .277/.352/.457 clip with eight long balls in 216 trips to the dish. Should he sustain an injury or see his 2019 struggles recur, the Marlins could turn things over to Cooper or dip into the farm and call on prospect Lewin Diaz to get an earnest look at first base.

Given the wealth of young options in both the infield and the outfield, a major addition at any position other than catcher seems unlikely. Minor league depth signings and a veteran bench piece to add to either the infield or outfield mix — possibly both, if the target is someone like old friend Enrique Hernandez — make plenty of sense for the Marlins. However, this is a club whose collection of position players simply needs some time to audition for the front office.

The pitching side of things presents a bit more of an opportunity for some veteran pickups, but again, there are several key young players in place and others who are ready for a chance to show they belong in the conversation as long-term building blocks.

Had there been a traditional season with expected revenue streams and ample time for said young players to get their feet wet in the Majors and upper minors, the Marlins’ outlook might be a bit different. They’d have a better sense of who is and who isn’t vital to their long-term competitiveness and would perhaps have a better idea of where they need to spend in the long run. Given that they remarkably don’t have a single guaranteed dollar on the books for the 2022 season, the Marlins might have been considered a dark horse to again splash around with some notable free-agent spending.

That doesn’t seem as likely now with a year of zero revenue and with so many young questions to be answered. Still, that blank slate on the 2022 payroll is worth bearing in mind both as the 2021 trade deadline approaches and as next offseason looms. If the organization’s younger options aren’t cutting it, this is a team with such a wide-open financial outlay that they could take on salary either via trade or (next winter) free agency. The Fish have reached the point where they’ll look to rise from NL East cellar dweller to a legitimate threat in what could be the game’s most competitive division race for several years to come.

2020-21 Offseason Outlook Series

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MLB Trade Rumors is deep into our annual Offseason Outlook series, breaking down what each of the 30 teams may or may not have planned on the transactions front this winter.  Here is the list of completed entries thus far, and keep checking this post as more teams are added…

NL West

NL Central

NL East

AL East

AL Central

AL West

Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays

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The reigning American League champions will deploy their usual strategy of tight payroll management and canny roster maneuvering as they look to take the final step of capturing a World Series.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Blake Snell, SP: $39MM through 2023
  • Kevin Kiermaier, CF: $26MM through 2022 (includes $2.5MM buyout of $13MM club option for 2023)
  • Brandon Lowe, 2B/OF: $21.5MM through 2024 (includes $1MM buyout of $10.5MM club option for 2025; Rays also hold $11.5MM club option for 2026)
  • Yoshi Tsutsugo, 3B/OF: $7MM through 2021

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

It’s possible that in a normal 2020 season with fans in the stands and some extra postseason revenue in hand, the Rays might have taken the plunge in exercising Charlie Morton’s $15MM option.  Or, it’s just as possible that the Rays would have declined the option anyway, since trying to maximize value on any available payroll space is just how the team does business.  This includes even tough decisions like parting ways with Morton, who delivered nothing but good results over his two years in Tampa Bay.

Given the Rays’ 226-158 record over the last three seasons and the fact that they finished just two games shy of a World Series title, it’s hard to argue with the club’s methods.  It also makes their offseason moves both somewhat easy and somewhat difficult to predict.  Obviously we can rule out any big free agent signings or acquisitions of high-salaried stars (without another big contract going back in return), yet pretty much anything else besides a Wander Franco trade is conceivably on the table.

For instance, it isn’t surprising that the Rays are open to discussing Blake Snell in trade talks.  Should any future reports indicate that Tampa Bay is floating other guaranteed-salary players like Kevin Kiermaier, Yoshi Tsutsugo, or even Brandon Lowe in discussions with other teams, that also shouldn’t raise eyebrows.  It remains to be seen if Snell or any of this group will actually be dealt, but GM Erik Neander has shown he is willing to deal even premium players for less-heralded talents who are much less expensive but end up being comparably productive.

Let’s begin with the rotation, which is the most natural area of need with Morton gone.  The Rays had hopes of bringing Morton back on a lesser salary, but the veteran found another $15MM in the form of a one-year deal with the Braves.  That leaves Snell, Ryan Yarbrough, Tyler Glasnow, and likely Josh Fleming as the projected top four starters, with a host of candidates for the fifth spot.  Prospects Shane McClanahan and Joe Ryan are on the cusp of big league action — McClanahan debuted in this year’s postseason — and the hope is that former top prospect Brent Honeywell Jr. might finally be healthy after three years lost to major injuries.  Brendan McKay isn’t expected to be ready for the start of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery, but is penciled in to pitch at some point in 2021.

While the Rays have shown they’re comfortable putting young starters into high-leverage positions, it’s probably safe to assume the team will look to add at least one veteran to the mix.  We can likely rule out any eight-figure average annual salaries for that next veteran — Morton’s two-year, $30MM deal was a surprise — but several interesting names could emerge as candidates for lower-cost one-year deals.  These free agents could be attracted at the idea of pitching for a contender.

Tampa figures to look into acquiring a veteran to the relief corps as well, probably a left-hander since the club’s current bullpen mix tilts to the right.  Jose Alvarado is a potential non-tender and Aaron Loup is a free agent, so there would certainly be room for more southpaw help.  But, the Rays will likely continue to rely on their farm system and their ever-active shuttle of fresh Triple-A pitcher to fill out their pitching staff, whether it’s starters, relievers, or openers.

Trading from this minor league depth is a definite possibility, if perhaps a less of an option for the Rays this offseason than in past winters.  Between all of their pitching injuries last season and Morton’s departure, the Rays might prefer to keep most of their young arms in the fold rather than openly offer them as trade chips, though naturally that wouldn’t stop Neander and company from moving a pitching prospect if the right offer emerged.

In what has become almost an annual offseason tradition, the Rays will again be looking for catching help.  Mike Zunino’s option was declined, Michael Perez was claimed by the Pirates, and Kevan Smith elected free agency, leaving Tampa Bay without a single catcher who appeared in a game for them in 2020.  It’s possible Zunino could be re-signed at a lower cost than his $4.5MM option, though even if he is brought back, the Rays would be in some sense settling for a catcher who offers quality defense but whose offense has cratered over the last two seasons.  Prospect Ronaldo Hernandez could get a look but is more likely to be broken in as a backup rather than thrust into a regular role.

There aren’t many truly expensive options within the free agent catching market, so the Rays could make a signing and land another one-year stopgap behind the plate.  If Tampa Bay did decide to trade from its prospect depth, it could be argued that they should be using that trade capital to find a more longer-term catching option.  There aren’t many teams with a surplus of young catching, of course, but the Padres or Dodgers seem like speculative trade partners.  Since the Cubs seem open to trading any veteran making a significant salary, Willson Contreras would also seem like a trade target, though Contreras’ projected $5.6MM arbitration salary might give the Rays some pause.

Elsewhere around the diamond, Randy Arozarena’s status is up in the air given his recent detainment due to an alleged domestic incident.  Details are still scarce about the exact nature of the incident or what charges Arozarena may face, though legal issues aside, Arozarena may still face a possible suspension under the MLB/MLBPA joint domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy.

The outfield was probably already going to be a target area since Hunter Renfroe was let go, but if Arozarena could also miss time, the Rays would have a starting outfield of Manuel Margot, Kiermaier, and Austin Meadows, with Brett Phillips as a potential fourth outfielder, and Tsutsugo, Lowe, and Mike Brosseau all getting some time in the corner spots.  (Prospect Josh Lowe, Tampa Bay’s first-round pick in 2016, could also make his MLB debut in 2021.)  A right-handed hitting outfielder would be a solid addition to that collection, and Arozarena’s situation could determine whether that outfielder is more of a part-timer, or a potential everyday type.

The Rays are pretty set around the infield, but it would fit Neander’s M.O. to trade any of these players if a (more) inexpensive upgrade could be found elsewhere.  Depending on how the Rays feel about Nate Lowe’s readiness as a regular, it’s possible Ji-Man Choi could be replaced as the primary left-handed first base option, though Choi’s $1.6MM projected arbitration number isn’t onerous even for Tampa.

With so many controllable infielders already on hand, the Rays might feel more comfortable about moving some infield prospects in trade talks.  Franco obviously isn’t going anywhere, but the likes of Vidal Brujan, Taylor Walls, or Xavier Edwards would definitely get the attention of other clubs.

Franco’s development looms over the Rays’ infield plans, and while he doesn’t even turn 20 years old until March and has yet to play above high-A ball, it wouldn’t be a shock if he made his big league debut before 2021 was over.  Rays coaches and staffers did get a chance to evaluate Franco against higher-level talent at the team’s alternate training site over the summer, and Tampa has been aggressive in promoting its top prospects in the past.  This all said, the smart money is on Willy Adames continuing to hold down the fort at shortstop while Franco gets another year of development under his belt.

Pre-pandemic, Tampa Bay had a projected Opening Day payroll of just under $72.5MM.  Counting guaranteed contracts, projected arbitration salaries, and minimum salaries for pre-arb players, the Rays have approximately $63.68MM committed to their 2021 payroll.  Considering revenue losses, getting back up to even the $70MM threshold seems like a stretch, leaving Neander (as usual) without many extra funds on hand this winter.  The Rays front office’s ability to thrive within limited financial parameters will again be tested, but with much of a pennant-winning core already in place, Tampa could be just a piece or two away.

Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins

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The Twins’ unfathomable postseason losing streak stretched to 18 games when they fell to the Astros during a Wild Card sweep. It’s back to the drawing board for chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine as they look to secure a third straight division title and finally dispel the postseason curse.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Josh Donaldson, 3B: $71MM through 2023 (includes buyout of 2024 option)
  • Miguel Sano, 1B: $23MM through 2022 (includes buyout of 2023 option)
  • Max Kepler, OF: $22.75MM through 2023 (includes buyout of 2024 option)
  • Jorge Polanco, SS: $17.833MM through 2023 (includes buyout of 2024 option; contract also contains 2025  option)
  • Michael Pineda, RHP: $10MM through 2021
  • Kenta Maeda, RHP: $9MM through 2023 (contract contains $3MM annual base with up to $10.15MM of annual incentives)

Arbitration-Eligible Players

This year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

  • Declined $5MM club option on RHP Sergio Romo (paid $250K buyout)

Free Agents

The Twins put together more-than-competitive rosters in 2019-20, shining in the regular season before continuing their inexplicable postseason drought. The good news for Minnesota fans is that the core group remains largely in place beyond the 2020 season.

Nelson Cruz is the most notable exception, as the 40-year-old slugger will head back to the open market this winter — reportedly in search of a two-year deal. It’s hard to blame Cruz for seeking that guarantee if he’s intent on playing through his 42nd birthday; he’s been an absolute monster in his two years with the Twins, slashing a combined .308/.394/.626 with 57 home runs in 173 games.

If the Twins were willing to meet that two-year term, I imagine this deal would’ve already come together. That’s not to say the two sides won’t eventually get there, but it might require some market pressure to move the team’s urgency. Absent the implementation of a permanent designated hitter in the National League, it’s not clear such pressure will exist. Most contending clubs throughout the American League have their DH at-bats largely spoken for.

Cruz seems willing to wait until there’s clarity on an NL DH (or lack thereof); the Twins could wait along with him or more proactively pursue a replacement. Marcell Ozuna could slide right into that DH spot and see occasional time in the outfield corners. The same is true of Michael Brantley, who has an obvious connection to the Twins in the form of Falvey, who was a former assistant GM with the Indians when Brantley played in Cleveland. Ditto Carlos Santana, who could start at first base and push Miguel Sano to DH, giving the Twins a defensive upgrade.

After Cruz, the biggest question is what to do with left fielder Eddie Rosario. The 29-year-old upped his walk rate to a career-high 8.2 percent in 2020 after years of criticism over his free-swinging approach, and he did so while maintaining above-average power (.219 ISO) and a low strikeout rate (14.7 percent).

One year of Rosario at somewhere in the $9-11MM vicinity is a perfectly reasonable price, but the Twins have a pair of near-MLB-ready top 100 prospects who happen to call the corner outfield their home: Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach. Left field/first base prospect Brent Rooker also made his MLB debut in 2020 and hit quite well before a broken forearm ended his season. The Twins thought so highly of Kirilloff that they not only carried him on the postseason roster but allowed him to make his MLB debut as the starting right fielder in an elimination game. Kirilloff has at times ranked inside baseball’s 10 best overall prospects and is still widely considered in the top 25 to 50.

Given leaguewide revenue losses and the fact that Rosario will earn about 17 times as much as Kirilloff in 2021, it’s not a surprise that Rosario has been mentioned both as a trade candidate and a non-tender candidate. He’d be among the better players we’ve seen non-tendered in recent years, but it’s fair to wonder whether another club would take on his salary and surrender anything in return in a climate that saw Indians closer Brad Hand go unclaimed on waivers when he could’ve been claimed at $10MM. I wrote about Rosario’s trade candidacy back in April and again more recently for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers, noting that there are some on-paper fits who could at least be intrigued by Rosario on a short-term commitment — the Nationals and Astros chief among them.

Outside of Cruz and Rosario/Kirilloff, the lineup is largely set — although there’s still room to be creative. Byron Buxton and Max Kepler should reprise their roles as center fielder and right fielder, barring a surprise trade of Kepler and his team-friendly contract. Who will seize the bulk of the time behind the plate isn’t certain, but both Mitch Garver (2019) and the younger Ryan Jeffers (2020) have turned in impressive seasons at the plate recently. Catcher isn’t likely to be a top priority outside of a potential depth add on a minor league deal. One could argue that the club should pursue J.T. Realmuto and make Jeffers/Garver available in trade, but that’s a reach.

So where’s the best spot to great “creative,” then? The middle infield — shortstop in particular — seems to present an opportunity. The Indians aren’t going to ship Francisco Lindor to their top division rival, but the free-agent market still has some quality options available. Polanco is a fine incumbent when healthy, but he’s undergone two ankle surgeries since signing his extension and was never a great defensive shortstop in the first place.

A pursuit of Marcus Semien, Didi Gregorius or Andrelton Simmons could allow the Twins to shift one of Polanco or Luis Arraez into the super-utility role that has been vacated by Marwin Gonzalez’s free-agent departure. The other could get regular reps as the everyday second baseman. If the plan is to keep Polanco at shortstop, the Twins could pursue Kolten Wong and install a marked defensive upgrade while still deploying Arraez in that heavily used utility role.

Middle infield isn’t a “need” for this Twins team, but that was also true of third base last year when the club nevertheless won the bidding on Josh Donaldson, recognizing an opportunity to add a potent bat and upgrade the defense in one fell swoop. The shortstop market this winter looks somewhat similar to last year’s third base market in that there are a few clubs with notable holes — Reds, Phillies, Angels — but still a limited enough number that the Twins could jump the market if they strongly feel Semien or Gregorius would be an upgrade. At minimum, the Twins will likely add a shortstop-capable utilityman with backup options Gonzalez and Ehire Adrianza now free agents.

As for the pitching staff, the rotation doesn’t look to be as glaring a need as it did this time last year. The Twins will return Cy Young finalist Kenta Maeda as well as righties Jose Berrios and Michael Pineda. In-house options Randy Dobnak and Devin Smeltzer create options at the fourth and fifth spots, and the club has top 100 prospects Jhoan Duran and Jordan Balazovic not far from the Majors.

It still seems likely the Twins will add at least one veteran to this mix, and you could argue that anyone from Trevor Bauer all the way to a steady fourth/fifth starter like Mike Fiers would make sense. Bauer is another player connected to Falvey from his time with the Indians, and Twins bench coach Mike Bell was the D-backs’ farm director when Arizona drafted Bauer with the No. 3 pick.

It doesn’t seem likely that the Twins would outbid the field to sign Bauer, but they could technically have the payroll space to do it — especially if Rosario departs. Subtracting Rosario would put 2021 payroll at about $90MM — a hefty $43MM shy of 2020’s pre-pandemic $133MM payroll. The Twins can at best be characterized as a dark horse in the Bauer market, but they’re a data- and tech-focused contender that has been willing to take on some risk, so they check plenty of Bauer’s boxes.

The Twins’ playoff rotation would look pretty suspect right now if one of Maeda, Berrios or Pineda went down, so it seems more sensible to add a fourth starter with a playoff-rotation ceiling than a run-of-the-mill innings eater. We put the Twins down as our pick for Corey Kluber on our Top 50 free agent list, but they’d make sense for anyone in that high-caliber reclamation bucket (e.g. James Paxton). A more straightforward Jake Odorizzi reunion would also work, and the trade market could again create some opportunities; Yu Darvish, Sonny Gray and Blake Snell are all already seeing their names circulate on the rumor mill. The Twins reportedly offered Darvish $100MM as a free agent, and they were interested in Gray when the Yankees initially shopped him two years ago.

The Twins’ current slate of losses in the bullpen are tough to overlook. Trevor May has quietly been a lights-out power arm for them, and the potential departures of Romo and Clippard eliminate two more quality setup men. Clippard proved vital in 2020, as the Twins used the changeup specialist as a big weapon against left-handed batters early in the year when they were still absent a lefty setup complement to southpaw Taylor Rogers.

Speaking of Rogers, he’s coming off something of a down season and will likely see his arbitration price tick north of $5MM, though it’s tough to imagine a non-tender of the 29-year-old. Rogers, breakout righty Tyler Duffey and slider-spamming waiver gem Matt Wisler figure to handle plenty of high-leverage spots moving forward, but it’d be a surprise if the Twins didn’t bring in a veteran or two.

Reunions with any of May, Romo or Clippard seem plausible, but with regard to May, it’s important to note that the most expensive free-agent contract the Twins have promised to a reliever was Addison Reed’s two-year, $16.75MM deal. The club spent big to keep incumbent closers Joe Nathan and Glen Perkins at one point, but this is not an organization that has been willing to commit high-dollar contracts to free-agent relievers. If May’s elite velocity and strikeout rates make him one of the market’s buzzier relievers, as we expect at MLBTR, he could price himself past a point at which we’ve seen this team spend for a reliever in an open-market setting.

The extent to which any club will spend this winter can’t be known, but owner Jim Pohlad’s comments have been less grim than some of his ownership counterparts around the game. The Twins were one of the few organizations in MLB not to make an aggressive wave of layoffs and were among the first to commit to paying minor leaguers the weekly $400 stipend through season’s end.

“The pandemic is hard on everybody, and we have to have some degree of compassion and empathy in that regard as how difficult it is on individuals,” Pohlad told the Minneapolis Star Tribune’s La Velle E. Neal III after the season. “If we are able to continue to pay people, we want to do that. It is a cultural philosophy.”

Pohlad also acknowledged to Neal that he has not yet gotten over another early playoff exit, and Falvey gave a similar stance while talking of taking the team to the next level. Asked about a potential major free-agent splash, Pohlad was guarded but not completely dismissive:

We could, but we don’t know what the market for such a player is going to be. In a sense there has been, in my view — and I’m not speaking for the players or the union — there has to be some degree of risk sharing here.

Perhaps Pohlad saying the Twins “could” make a splash was purely lip service. Certainly, pushing the notion of players sharing the risk doesn’t seem like a portent for a fast-and-loose spending spree. But the Twins might have a bit of wiggle room if they move on from Rosario, and it’s hard to imagine that yet another pair of playoff losses hasn’t enhanced the urgency to break that streak.

The Twins will need to determine what to do with the veritable engine of the “Bomba Squad” (Cruz) and look for some supporting characters on the pitching staff. As is the case with so many clubs following this year’s absence of fans, the primary unknown for the Twins is the extent to which ownership will spend to bring about those changes. Their payroll picture is in good enough shape that it’s reasonable to expect the Twins to be in on some mid-tier free agents and affordable trade targets regardless. And if Pohlad is willing to surprise again a year after spending on Donaldson, they could emerge as a dark horse for some bigger names.

Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

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Thanks to the expanded postseason format, the Brewers were a playoff team in 2020, despite a 29-31 record and a lack of offensive production.  The club now heads into the winter looking to answer a lot of questions throughout the lineup.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Christian Yelich, OF: $205MM through 2028 (includes $6.5MM buyout of $20MM mutual option for 2029)
  • Lorenzo Cain, OF: $35MM through 2022
  • Freddy Peralta, RP: $13.75MM through 2024 (includes $1.5MM buyout of $8MM club option for 2025; deal also contains $8MM club option for 2026)
  • Avisail Garcia, OF: $12.5MM through 2021 (includes $2MM buyout of $12MM club/mutual option for 2022, though buyout value could vary)
  • Josh Lindblom, SP: $5.5MM through 2022
  • Brent Suter, RP: $1.5MM through 2021

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Looking to build on postseason appearances in both 2018 and 2019, the Brewers made a number of short-term, relatively inexpensive signings last winter to reinforce the roster after Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas departed in free agency.  It was a sound plan on paper and, overall, it worked considering that the Brew Crew again reached the playoffs.

The issue with such a strategy, however, is that the Brewers are now facing another reload on the open market.  Obviously the Brewers couldn’t have foreseen last winter that their already fairly tight payroll situation would impacted by a season of major revenue losses, but their budget figures to be even tighter in 2021.  It doesn’t seem likely that the team will match its (pre-adjusted schedule) 2020 payroll of roughly $97.5MM.

Between their roughly $47.5MM of guaranteed contracts, the above arbitration projections and a handful of pre-arbitration salaries to round out the roster, Milwaukee is looking at nearly $81MM in projected payroll.  It remains to be seen how much money president of baseball operations David Stearns will have at his disposal for new additions.  On the plus side, Stearns has shown himself to be adept at finding low-cost gems in trades or free agency, so this will be nothing new for him.  More funds could be freed up in the form of non-tenders, as the Brewers could reasonably part ways with more than half of their 10-player arbitration class.

Cutting ties with Omar Narvaez would leave the Brew Crew without their starting catcher, yet Narvaez had such a tough offensive season that the team may decide he isn’t worth the investment.  Jace Peterson, Alex Claudio, and (especially) Daniel Vogelbach were all pretty productive in limited action with Milwaukee last season, but since lots of similar players are expected to be available in a flooded non-tender market, the Brewers could look for cheaper options elsewhere.  Corey Knebel struggled over 13 1/3 innings in his return from Tommy John surgery, and with a projected $5.125MM arbitration salary, Knebel might be deemed too expensive to retain given the risk that he doesn’t get back to his old All-Star form.

Speaking of All-Star relievers, Josh Hader is obviously in no danger of being non-tendered, yet could Hader have already thrown his last pitch in a Milwaukee uniform?  The club is reportedly open to hearing trade offers, but as Stearns said in September, being willing to listen to another team’s proposal is much different than actively exploring deals. “We’ve never really looked to move [Hader], and I don’t really anticipate that changing,” Stearns said at the time.

Some might argue that Devin Williams’ emergence as a shutdown reliever makes Hader at least somewhat expendable, though Williams also serves as an argument for keeping Hader; having two outstanding relievers more fully reinforces a pitching staff that traditionally doesn’t extend starters deep into games in the name of efficient run prevention.

Past Milwaukee staffs have kept a pretty loose definition of “starter” and “reliever” rather than sticking to strict roles, though going into 2021, the Brew Crew has four starters in place.  Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes posted front-of-the-rotation results last season, while advanced metrics indicated that Josh Lindblom pitched better than his 5.16 ERA would indicate.  Adrian Houser struggled down the stretch after some good early outings, but the right-hander looks to have the inside track on a rotation spot.

The fifth spot could be filled internally.  Eric Lauer, Freddy Peralta, or Brent Suter are all candidates to take the job themselves, or perhaps they’ll share starts (or work as bulk pitchers behind an opener).  As much as the Brewers like being flexible with their hurlers, they’ll surely look to add more depth, and re-signing Brett Anderson could be a possibility.  Anderson had a good year in 2020, but since he is entering his age-33 season and doesn’t have the big strikeout numbers that many teams covet, he could be available to the Brewers on another one-year deal.  If not Anderson, expect Milwaukee to target similar veterans on short-term contracts.

The Brewers’ first round of financial decisions this offseason resulted in four declined club options, most notably the team passing on their side of a mutual option with long-time star Ryan Braun.  While not an unexpected move given Braun’s age, price tag, and his average hitting numbers, it is still noteworthy that Braun’s 14-season run with the franchise is done — barring another contract, that is.  Braun said in July that he was leaning towards playing in 2021, and if that stance hasn’t changed, it’s possible the two sides could reunite on an inexpensive one-year deal.  There might not be action on this front, of course, until the Brewers know if the DH will be available to National League teams next season.

Further complicating Stearns’ winter business is the lack of certainty at almost every position around the diamond.  The Brewers are looking for almost a lineup-wide rebound.  Each of Christian Yelich, Keston Hiura, Avisail Garcia, Luis Urias and Narvaez struggled to varying extents, while Lorenzo Cain is expected to return after opting out of the 2020 season just five games into the year.  Yelich, Cain, and Hiura are the clear everyday building blocks, and Garcia will likely stay due to a lack of trade value.  Urias is still part of the Brewers’ future, and his lackluster 2020 numbers were likely impacted by a positive COVID-19 diagnosis that sidelined him for much of Summer Camp.

Where Urias plays next season depends on what the Brewers do with Orlando Arcia.  The former top prospect had a solid offensive showing (.260/.317/.416 in 189 PA) that resulted in a career-best 96 wRC+, but  this could be too little, too late.  Arcia is another player that could plausibly be non-tendered, but since Urias had yet to establish himself at the MLB level, the Brewers could see value in keeping Arcia around to hold the fort at shortstop.

That could leave Urias in line to play some third base, and Milwaukee will look to augment the position with an addition like last winter’s signing of Eric Sogard (ideally with more return on investment, given Sogard’s lack of production).  Players like Jake Lamb, Enrique Hernandez, Asdrubal Cabrera, or Brad Miller may be within the Brewers’ price range, and Gyorko hit well enough that one would imagine the team would be interested in bringing him back.  Of the slightly more expensive options, Tommy La Stella could also be a target.  Even further up the financial ladder, the Brewers would make some sense as a bidder for Ha-Seong Kim once the Korean star is posted.  MLBTR projects Kim to land a $40MM contract, but for a 25-year-old with Kim’s skill set, potential, and multi-positional ability, Milwaukee could decide to take the plunge.

Even moreso than Arcia, Narvaez’s chances of being tendered a contract are helped by a lack of other options, as the Brewers would have to either acquire another backstop or roll with the in-house trio of Manny Pina, Jacob Nottingham, and David Freitas.  Known for his offense more than his defense heading into 2020, Narvez had a reversal of a year that saw his bat falter but his pitch-framing rise to elite levels.  An argument can be made that Milwaukee should hang onto Narvaez just to see what they really have in him, and if his hitting can recover in something of a more normal season.

Vogelbach is the favorite for first base if he is tendered a contract, but given his lack of track record, the Brew Crew could try to take advantage of a depressed free agent market to land a more proven hitter at something of a discount.  Carlos Santana stands out as a big bat whose stock is low coming off a down year in 2020.  Most of the aforementioned third base options also have first base experience, and Braun might also be a candidate for first base if the Brewers re-signed him.

If this seems like a lot of wait-and-see for a team hoping to contend, at least it helps the Brewers that their chief rivals in the very competitive NL Central all have big questions of their own.  Should 2020 prove to be an aberration and Yelich, Cain, Narvaez, and others all hit at something close to their past levels of performance, the Brew Crew will be a better team based on internal improvement alone.  Combine this with hitting on a few more short-term acquisitions, and a fourth straight postseason trip could be in the offing.

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