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2020-21 International Prospects

Quick Hits: Young, Torre, Int’l Prospects, Leon, Franco

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Major League Baseball announced some changes within its baseball operations department, including the hirings of the newly-retired Gregor Blanco and Nick Hundley.  Some other familiar names will be taking on new roles, as head of baseball operations Joe Torre will now be a special assistant to commissioner Rob Manfred.  Taking over Torre’s former job as the head of the ops department is former right-hander Chris Young, whose new title is senior VP of on-field operations, initiatives and strategy.  This portfolio covers, as per the league’s press release, “issues that affect play on the field, including oversight of umpiring, playing rules and regulations, on-field standards and discipline, pace of play and other special projects.”  Young has worked for the league since May 2018, coming on the heels of a 17-year pro career that included 1297 2/3 innings pitched over parts of 13 MLB seasons.

More from around the baseball world….

  • Some of the top outfield prospects in the 2020-21 international draft class are profiled by Baseball America’s Ben Badler, who also details which teams are expected to sign these players on July 2.  The Reds, Pirates, Red Sox, and Rangers are all thought to have seven-figure bonuses lined up for four players from the Dominican Republic, though the Astros are reportedly ready to pay what may be the biggest bonus given to any player in the 2020-21 class — a deal in the neighborhood of $4MM to 21-year-old Cuban outfielder Pedro Leon.  Because of his age, Leon is already eligible to sign, though he will wait until the opening of the next July 2 window because most teams have exhausted most or all of their funds from their 2019-20 international signing pools.  The int’l market will take on added importance for the Astros over the next two years, as the club’s pipeline of top young talent will be limited after losing their top two picks in both the 2020 and 2021 amateur drafts as part of their punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.
  • The Royals didn’t waste time in their pursuit of Maikel Franco, as assistant GM Rene Francisco called Franco the day after the Phillies non-tendered the third baseman, Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star writes.  Franco and the Royals agreed to a one-year, $2.95MM deal within a few weeks’ time of Francisco’s early expression of interest, and Franco has since been diligently working with Royals coaches to overhaul his approach at the plate.  Rather than the grounder-heavy results that defined so much of his stint in Philadelphia, Franco is putting a particular focus on getting the ball in the air.

Teams That Gained Or Lost Draft Picks Via Qualifying Offer Free Agents

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Now that Marcell Ozuna has signed, all 10 of the players who were issued a one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer in November have settled on teams for the 2020 season.  Of that group, two (Jose Abreu of the White Sox and Jake Odorizzi of the Twins) accepted their qualifying offers and returned to their clubs — Abreu, in fact, topped off his QO by signing a contract extension that will run through the 2022 season.  Stephen Strasburg also isn’t changing uniforms, as the longtime Nationals ace rejected the club’s qualifying offer but eventually re-signed with Washington on a seven-year, $245MM deal.

That leaves us with seven QO players who will be playing on new teams in 2020, and as such, the draft compensation attached to those seven players has also now been allotted.  Under the rules of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, the same compensation was handed out to all six teams who lost those players, as the entire sextet fell under the same financial criteria.  The Mets, Cardinals, Braves, Giants, Nationals, and Astros all aren’t revenue-sharing recipients, nor did they exceed the luxury tax threshold in 2019, so all six teams will receive a compensatory draft pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round of the 2020 draft.

Here is how the so-called “Compensation Round” breaks down.  The order of the picks is determined by worst record-to-best record from the 2019 season.

68. Giants (for Madison Bumgarner)
69. Giants (for Will Smith)
70. Mets (for Zack Wheeler)
71. Cardinals (for Marcell Ozuna)
72. Nationals (for Anthony Rendon)
73. Braves (for Josh Donaldson)
74. Astros (for Gerrit Cole)

San Francisco now possesses five of the first 87 picks in next June’s draft.  With the Giants still in the NL wild card race last summer, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi opted to hang onto Bumgarner and Smith rather than trade either player, a decision that led to some criticism since San Francisco was widely considered to be closer to rebuilding than truly contending.  The critics’ judgement grew even harsher after the Giants went 22-32 record in August and September and fell well short of the postseason.  Still, given that teams were reluctant to part with top-flight young talent for even controllable players (let alone rentals like Bumgarner and Smith) at the trade deadline, Zaidi clearly felt that the two picks he could recoup from the qualifying offer process were more valuable than anything offered for the two Giants pitchers last July.

It’s worth noting that the 74th overall pick will be Houston’s first selection of the 2020 draft, after the Astros lost both their first- and second-highest selections in both 2020 and 2021 as part of their punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.  Since the Red Sox are also under league investigation for their own alleged use of electronics to steal opponents’ signs in 2018, Boston could also potentially lose at least one pick in this year’s draft, so we can’t yet say that the 2020 draft order is finalized.  Of course, the order could be further muddled if more trades occur involving picks from the two Competitive Balance Draft rounds, which are the only types of draft picks that can be traded.  We’ve already seen the Rays and Cardinals swap their picks in Rounds A and B as part of the multi-player trade that sent Jose Martinez and Randy Arozarena to Tampa Bay earlier this month.

Let’s now look at the six teams who signed the seven QO-rejecting free agents, and see what those clubs had to give up in order to make the signings.

Yankees, for signing Gerrit Cole: Since New York exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2019, they gave up their second- and fifth-round picks in the 2020 draft (a.k.a. their second- and fifth-highest selections).  The Yankees also gave up $1MM in funds from their international signing bonus pool.

Diamondbacks, for signing Madison Bumgarner: As a team that didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold and was a revenue-sharing recipient, the D’Backs had to give up their third-highest draft choice to sign Bumgarner.  This ended up being Arizona’s second-round selection — the team’s first two picks are their first-rounder (18th overall) and their pick in Competitive Balance Round A (33rd overall).

Twins, for signing Josh Donaldson: Minnesota also received revenue-sharing and didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold, so signing Donaldson put the Twins in position to give up their third-highest draft selection.  However, the Twins are actually giving up their fourth-highest pick in the 2020 draft, which is their third-round selection.  The Twins’ actual third selection is their pick in Competitive Balance Round B, but those picks aren’t eligible to be forfeited as compensation for QO free agent signings.

Angels, for signing Anthony Rendon: Since the Halos didn’t receive revenue-sharing funds and also didn’t pay any luxury tax money, they had to give up their second-highest draft pick (their second-rounder) and $500K in international bonus funds to sign Rendon.

Phillies, for signing Zack Wheeler: The Phillies surrendered their second-highest selection (their second-round pick) and $500K of their international bonus pool, since they were another team that didn’t exceed the luxury tax line and didn’t receive revenue-sharing money.

Braves, for signing Will Smith and Marcell Ozuna: The dual signings put Atlanta in line for a dual penalty.  The Braves didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold and also didn’t receive revenue-sharing money, so they gave up their second-highest draft pick (their second-rounder) and $500K of international bonus money for Smith.  In landing Ozuna, the Braves then had to also forfeit their third-round pick (their third-highest selection) and another $500K from their international bonus pool.

Losing two draft picks and $1MM in international pool money isn’t nothing, though these particular sanctions had less impact on the Braves than on other teams, which undoubtedly influenced their decisions.  First of all, the compensatory pick Atlanta received for Donaldson is higher in the draft order than their third-round pick, so the net loss is only a second-round pick.  Secondly, the Braves’ movement in the international market is still limited by the punishment handed out by Major League Baseball in November 2017 for Atlanta’s past international signing violations.  Part of that punishment included the Braves’ pool for the 2020-21 international market being reduced by 50 percent — being so handcuffed in the international market anyway, the Braves probably felt $1MM in pool money was no great loss.

Quick Hits: International Prospects, Rosario, Defense

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The Reds have absorbed their share of tough losses this season, but none compare to how the Cincinnati Red Stockings dropped a 5-3 result to the Louisville Colonels on this day back in 1886.  Louisville’s Chicken Wolf hit a game-deciding inside-the-park home run, though Cincinnati outfielder Abner Powell can be excused for failing to properly field the ball.  A stray dog who had been sleeping by the outfield fence was woken up by the commotion of the play, and the startled hound proceeded to attack Powell (reports are varied as to whether the dog bit Powell’s pant leg or actual leg), distracting the outfielder long enough for Wolf to score.  Questions abound — did the Colonels immediately adopt the animal as a Rally Dog?  Why did Red Stockings manager Ollie Caylor not issue a video replay challenge?  Was the dog motivated to help Wolf out of canine solidarity?  Should MLB spice up the modern game by mandating that at least one random animal be roaming the field at all times?

While we ponder these questions, let’s look at some other items from around baseball…

  • We’re over ten months away from the opening of the next international signing period on July 2, 2020, though Baseball America’s Ben Badler (subscription required) looks ahead by profiling ten of the most notable prospects in the upcoming class.  Dominican outfielder Pedro Pineda could potentially claim the highest bonus of the bunch, as he has been connected to the Athletics for a bonus that could approach $5MM.  The Cubs, Rays, Tigers, Dodgers, Marlins, Nationals, Angels, Blue Jays, and Twins are all unofficially linked to the other nine names on Badler’s list, with several other players also reportedly in line for multi-million dollar bonuses.  Of course, the entire signing process as we know it could become moot should Major League Baseball adopt an international talent draft for next year, though nothing has yet been confirmed on that front.
  • The Mets’ surge into wild card contention has been aided by a hot streak from Amed Rosario, who has hit .367/.403/.527 over his last 181 plate appearances.  Long considered one of baseball’s best prospects, Rosario is breaking out in his third MLB season and establishing himself as a major cornerstone piece in the Mets’ present and future plans, Newsday’s David Lennon writes.  Before Rosario’s bat came alive, the biggest question facing his season was whether or not he’d remain at shortstop, as the Mets were considering using him as a center fielder back in June.  While Rosario’s defensive numbers aren’t good (minus-14 Defensive Runs Saved, minus-2.5 UZR/150), there is a sense he has improved his glovework as of late, and Lennon notes that “we get the sense that conversation is over” about a position change.
  • The Phillies are exactly in the middle of the pack in Defensive Runs Saved, as the Phils’ +12 DRS ranking 15th among all teams.  This modest number, however, represents a gigantic upgrade for their glovework, as The Athletic’s Mark Simon (subscription required) explores in a look at the most improved defensive teams in baseball.  Philadelphia’s minus-146 DRS was by far the worst in baseball in 2018, yet the team has shored up their defense due to a number of factors, such as the additions of J.T. Realmuto and Bryce Harper, and moving Rhys Hoskins back to first base after he supremely struggled as a left field last year.  The other big gainers were the Blue Jays, who went from minus-100 DRS in 2018 (29th among all teams) to minus-1 DRS and 18th place this season, and the Dodgers, who have gone from being very good to a potentially record-setting defensive unit.  Los Angeles finished eighth in the league with +47 DRS in 2018, and now lead all of baseball with a +125 score, giving them a shot at breaking the Diamondbacks’ record-setting mark of +157 from a year ago.  The eight teams on Simon’s list share at least one of two commonalities — either the teams are shifting more frequently, or else they are simply using better personnel, whether those are new players joining the team or players who have personally improved their glovework since last season.

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