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Archives for December 2019

MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The Reds?

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We’re on the verge of concluding a decade that will go down as, at best, a mixed bag for the Reds. They broke a 14-season playoff drought in the first year of it, 2010, and then made the playoffs in two of the next three campaigns. But the Reds have revisited the dregs of the majors since then, having gone six years since their most recent playoff berth and their latest .500 season. The Reds are now just a couple months removed from wrapping up a 75-victory season, but they did make real progress then (it was their highest win total since 2014), and they’re currently amid an active winter.

Since free agency opened at the beginning of November, the Reds have signed two players they hope will be key contributors to their next playoff roster. They picked up Mike Moustakas on a four-year, $64MM contract a few weeks ago, and though Moose has played third base for almost all of his MLB career, the plan is for him to handle second in Cincinnati. While it’s a risky bet on the Reds’ part, Moustakas did perform well during a limited run as a second baseman with the division-rival Brewers last season.

The Reds reeled in their second regular position player of the offseason Monday, agreeing to a three-year pact worth $20MM-plus with Shogo Akiyama. The former Nippon Professional Baseball standout will be the Reds’ go-to guy in center field, though it’s anyone’s guess how they will assemble the rest of their outfield. Nick Senzel, Jesse Winker, Aristides Aquino, Phil Ervin and Josh VanMeter are among several choices who could vie for roles, but as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd explained Monday, the Akiyama signing may give the team room to flip someone (Senzel?) for help at another position.

The Reds entered the offseason seemingly in need of aid at shortstop and catcher, but they haven’t added new faces at either spot. For at least the time being, Freddy Galvis and Tucker Barnhart remain the Reds’ top possibilities there. The rest of their infield looks stacked, though, with Moustakas at second, Joey Votto at first and Eugenio Suarez manning the hot corner. Likewise, the Reds’ rotation appears to be in enviable shape – Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer, Anthony DeSclafani and free-agent addition Wade Miley comprise a starting five most teams would be glad to have. Cincinnati’s bullpen isn’t as well off, but it was a decent group in 2019 that hasn’t lost any integral contributors since then.

Along with bettering their roster this winter, the Reds have seen most of their division stand pat or maybe even get worse. The Cardinals won the NL Central last season, but they’ve been quiet in recent months and could lose outfielder Marcell Ozuna in free agency (perhaps even to the Reds). The Brewers – who, as mentioned, bid adieu to Moustakas – haven’t made any huge additions. The Cubs have been a general disappointment for several months, though a shakeup of some sort still seems possible, and the Pirates probably won’t contend in the near term. All that said, the door could be open for the Reds to make a playoff push in 2020. Based on what they’ve done to this point in the offseason, do you expect that to happen?

(Poll link for app users)

Report: Red Sox Aren’t “Actively Shopping” Mookie Betts

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Red Sox right fielder Mookie Betts’ name has been bandied about in offseason trade speculation, particularly with the club trying to get under the $208MM luxury-tax threshold in 2020. But the Red Sox still have a very good roster, and Betts is an irreplaceable member of it, so there doesn’t seem to be any hurry on their part to move him.

The Red Sox, led by new chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, aren’t “actively shopping” the former AL MVP, according to Rob Bradford of WEEI.com. Trading Betts is not part of Boston’s ideal plan for cutting payroll, though the team may at least consider offers, Bradford suggests.

As of now, the Red Sox are projected for a luxury-tax outlay of $237MM-plus for 2020, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Getting rid of Betts’ projected $27.7MM arbitration salary would put them in striking distance of $208MM, and he’d likely bring back a nice return at the same time. With that said, trading Betts – the Red Sox’s best player and one of the game’s elite performers – could cripple their chances of pushing for a playoff return next season. The 27-year-old Betts was a 10-WAR player as recently as 2018, his MVP campaign, and though his numbers dropped a season ago, he was still worth upward of 6 WAR.

Going forward, Betts is in line to become a free agent in less than a year’s time, but the Red Sox figure to put on a full-court press to extend him before truly considering a trade. Betts has indicated on multiple occasions he’s gearing up to test free agency, but as we saw when the Angels extended Mike Trout before last season, an enticing enough offer can keep a superstar from trying his luck on the market.

In Betts’ case, an extension should mean a guarantee approaching or exceeding $400MM (Trout got 10 years and $360MM in new money). But if the Red Sox aren’t willing to go to those lengths, or if Betts is dead set on shopping himself around the league next winter, he could dominate trade rumors leading up to the July deadline. In the meantime, left-hander David Price and center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. seem like more attainable trade candidates on a team that’s hoping to reduce its payroll while remaining competitive.

Latest On Chad Bettis

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Right-hander Chad Bettis was once a top 100 prospect and then a quality member of Colorado’s rotation, but health issues have played a role in stalling his progress over the past few seasons. Bettis underwent surgery for testicular cancer entering 2017, eventually making a courageous return to a major league mound later that year. He went on to log a sizable number of innings with the Rockies from 2018-19, though he missed time last season with a hip impingement and couldn’t match his prior production when he did pitch. Bettis wound up amassing 63 2/3 innings, most of which came as a reliever, and opposing offenses tattooed him for a 6.08 ERA/5.16 FIP.

In the wake of Bettis’ struggles, the Rockies moved on from the 30-year-old a couple months back in lieu of paying him a projected $3.8MM via arbitration. Now a member of an uninspiring free-agent market for starters, Bettis told Jon Morosi of MLB Network Radio on Tuesday that he has taken steps forward as he seeks a return to health. Bettis, who underwent bilateral hip surgery, revealed that he feels the best he has physically since before he beat cancer. At that point, Bettis was coming off a pair of 2.0-fWAR seasons in which he combined for a 4.57 ERA/4.11 FIP with 7.06 K/9, 3.02 BB/9 and a 50.5 percent groundball rate across 301 innings.

As mentioned, Bettis endured a noticeable dip in on-field production more recently, but there were some positive signs during a trying 2019. For instance, he averaged 93 mph on his fastball – his highest mean since 2014 – and induced ground balls at a whopping 60.8 percent clip. Of all pitchers who threw at least 60 frames last season, just four forced grounders at a superior rate.

Even though Bettis did offer reasons for hope last year, odds are that the overall disappointing results he posted from 2018-19 will force him to settle for a minor league contract this winter. Regardless of whether he lands a guaranteed deal, Bettis and his next team will hope he can revisit the form he showed during the respectable couple seasons he enjoyed as a member of the Rockies.

Twins Have Made 4-Year Offer To Josh Donaldson

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The Twins entered the offseason seeking “impact” starting pitching, but it doesn’t appear they’ll succeed in that quest. They agreed to one-year deals with Rich Hill and Homer Bailey on Tuesday, and with no high-end starters left on the market, their heavy lifting could be done in that area after also retaining Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda.

Although the Twins may be finished picking up notable starters, that doesn’t mean the reigning AL Central champions are content to enter next season without adding at least one more established contributor to the roster. On the contrary, they’re still chasing the premier free agent available, Josh Donaldson, and have made the third baseman a four-year offer, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports (subscription link).

Financial details of the Twins’ proposal are unknown, but it could well be in the neighborhood of $90MM. As of two weeks ago, the Nationals were reportedly willing to go to that range for Donaldson, who has also drawn attention from his previous team, the Braves, as well as the Dodgers, Phillies and Rangers this winter. All of those clubs could still conceivably make a splash at the position.

Considering Donaldson has been an elite-level player for a large portion of the past several seasons, he’d increase any team’s title chances on paper. However, his age (34) could make at least some teams wary of handing him a long-term, big-money accord. The Twins appear unafraid, though.

For Minnesota, signing Donaldson would likely mean soaring past the ~$120MM Opening-Day payroll they posted last season, as Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimates the team’s already in that vicinity. But a significant amount of that money’s due to come off the books a year from now with Hill, Bailey, Odorizzi, Nelson Cruz and Marwin Gonzalez among the Twins’ players who are scheduled to become free agents then.

For now, reeling in Donaldson would surely mean shifting third baseman Miguel Sano to first, where the Twins don’t appear to have a clear solution after cutting ties with C.J. Cron, their previous starter. Cron’s now a member of the division-rival Tigers, while the versatile Gonzalez may be the Twins’ leading in-house candidate to man first.

Mike Hazen On Diamondbacks’ Payroll, Needs

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The Diamondbacks have followed up an 85-win season in 2019 with a trio of noteworthy signings this winter. So far, they’ve added left-hander Madison Bumgarner for five years and $85MM, right fielder Kole Calhoun for two years and $16MM, and catcher Stephen Vogt on a one-year, $3MM pact.

The Bumgarner, Calhoun and Vogt moves have left the Diamondbacks with an estimated $115MM Opening-Day payroll for 2020, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, after they began each of the previous two years from $123MM to $131MM. With that in mind, there appears to be wiggle room remaining. As Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes, the Diamondbacks have indicated they plan to start next season in the $125MM range. As for how much money the club still has available, general manager Mike Hazen revealed it’s less than $12MM to $14MM.

“I’m not going to confirm one way or another what it is, but you’re off there high,” Hazen told Piecoro. “We still have flexibility to operate both within the free-agent market and the trade market to add pieces to our team.”

It seems adding a center fielder is still a priority for the Diamondbacks, with Hazen once again noting he’d “prefer” for Ketel Marte to handle second base instead. Marte – one of the most valuable players in baseball a season ago – spent the majority of 2019 in center, but he’s a middle infielder by trade.

At this point, one major problem for the Diamondbacks is that center field possibilities in free agency continue to decrease. They showed interest in Japanese import Shogo Akiyama, but he agreed to join the Reds on Monday. With Akiyama and the Yankees’ Brett Gardner off the board, it may be tough to find an everyday-caliber center fielder on a free-agent market that wasn’t overrun with them in the first place. Kevin Pillar’s unsigned after the NL West rival Giants non-tendered him Dec. 2, but there hasn’t been reported interested in him since from the Diamondbacks or anyone else.

All things considered, it could be trade or bust for Arizona, which has been connected to the top CFer on that market – the Pirates’ Starling Marte – this winter. Speculatively, the Red Sox’s Jackie Bradley Jr. could also be a target. Hazen’s familiar with Bradley from Boston, as he was part of the team’s front office when it drafted Bradley 40th overall in 2011 and remained part of its brain trust through 2016.

Marte and Bradley figure to each earn in the vicinity of $12MM next year, which means they should fit (barely) in Arizona’s payroll. But it remains to be seen whether the D-backs are willing to surrender the necessary assets to acquire either.

Rangers Showing Interest In Todd Frazier

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The Rangers are showing interest in veteran infielder Todd Frazier, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. It seems the team would be amenable to a single-season pact; the potential price tag isn’t known.

Frazier, 34 in February, has generally turned in above-average hitting and solid glovework at the hot corner. His power has taken a step back from his All-Star caliber days, but Frazier is still a solid veteran performer. Last year, he slashed .251/.329/.443 and popped 21 long balls in 499 plate appearances with the Mets.

While the Rangers still have their eyes on a bigger prize at third base — after missing on Anthony Rendon, they’re making a long-odds play for Nolan Arenado — it seems they could pursue Frazier regardless. Per Grant, Frazier would move into action at first base in the event of another addition at third. He’d pair with (and at least partially displace) Ronald Guzman at first while presumably also seeing action at third, as a DH, and as a pinch-hitter.

It’s a sensible match on paper, though it’s not clear how likely it is to come to fruition. Frazier will presumably also be targeted by some other clubs that have designs on higher-end options at third base. Depending upon where Josh Donaldson signs and how the trade market develops over the coming weeks — the true availability of Arenado and Kris Bryant will weigh heavily — it’s possible that Frazier will end up in some demand before camp opens. There are a number of other notable veteran options still on the market, though arguably none as desirable as Frazier.

Reds To Sign Tyler Thornburg

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JANUARY 4, 2020: Thornburg would earn $1.25MM in the majors, with up to $750K in incentives if he reaches 65 appearances, Nightengale adds on Twitter.

DECEMBER 31, 2019: The Reds have agreed to a deal with righty Tyler Thornburg, according to Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (via Twitter). It’s a minors pact with an invitation to participate in MLB camp.

Thornburg, 31, is looking for a fresh start after finally wrapping up an injury-plagued tenure with the Red Sox in 2019. He ended up throwing just 42 2/3 innings of 6.54 ERA ball in Boston after arriving via trade in advance of the 2017 season.

Last year’s hoped-for rebound never came to pass, leading the Sox to cut Thornburg loose in the middle of the season. He landed with the Dodgers on a minors deal but didn’t make it back to the bigs as his struggles continued at Triple-A.

Despite the obvious issues in recent years, Thornburg has in the past been quite a good reliever. Some physical tools are there, as he still carries a mid-nineties heater and generates excellent spin rate on his pitches, though he managed just an 8.6% swinging-strike in the majors in 2019.

Twins Sign Rich Hill, Homer Bailey

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The Twins have pulled off a fascinating New Year’s Eve double-strike. The club announced that hurlers Rich Hill and Homer Bailey have each agreed to contracts, as Dan Hayes of The Athletic first reported (Twitter link).

Both players secured one-year deals, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). Hill is guaranteed $3MM, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com tweets. His contract includes a hefty $9.5MM in total available incentives which can be met by recording only 15 starts and/or 75 innings thrown. Bailey’s contract comes with a $7MM guarantee, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). He also has some incentive pay available, but only if he gets up to 180 innings, Hayes tweets.

There’s a lot to process here. More than anything, it’s a highly notable development for a Twins club that entered the offseason promising to pursue impact arms. Perhaps now the club will turn over its still-stuffed war chest in pursuit of third baseman Josh Donaldson.

We’ve already seen the Twins move to retain Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda, though the latter will open the year on the restricted list while he finishes a suspension for a banned masking agent. Having bid adieu to Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez, the Minnesota org was left with a mix of rather inexperienced rotation candidates such as Devin Smeltzer and Randy Dobnak.

Now, Bailey slots into an immediate rotation spot while Hill joins Pineda as an anticipated mid-season boost. Hill is working back from elbow surgery and likely won’t be available on the MLB mound until the summer. In effect, the organization has pre-purchased a pair of trade deadline rotation pieces. That’ll make it tough to add any other clear-cut starters now or in the summer trade market, unless it becomes clear that the expected timelines can’t be met.

All things considered, it’s quite the value-driven gambit for the Twins, who raced out to an AL Central title last year but face competition for the crown in 2020. The organization made no secret of its desire to land higher-quality starters, but came away without any of the major hurlers that populated the free agent market.

[RELATED: Twins Will Pursue “Impact” Pitching — And They Can Afford It]

There’s much to commend about both Hill and Bailey, but it’d be tough to say that the new duo is a clear upgrade over the outgoing two-some of Gibson and Perez. The Twins obviously prefer the price tag on the two they’ve landed, but there is a reason that other organizations were willing to promise bigger money to Gibson (three years, $30MM) and Perez (one year, $6MM).

The Twins do have some real potential impact in Hill, despite the fact that he’ll celebrate his 40th birthday before throwing a pitch for the organization. The resurgent veteran has thrown limited innings since his reemergence — both by design and due to injuries — but has been awesome when available. Dating back to his late-2015 run with the Red Sox, he carries a 2.91 ERA with 10.7 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 466 1/3 innings.

Given the unusual incentive structure of Hill’s deal, it’s obvious both that the Twins anticipate a mid-season debut and that they won’t expect him to turn in overly lengthy outings. The master curveballer only flung 58 2/3 frames in his 13 starts last year with the Dodgers, and he can now max out his incentives package if he can extend that just a bit. The organization evidently wasn’t worried by Hill’s recent arrest in an incident he called “overblown.”

If Hill gets back to health and back to his now-typical form, he’ll provide a weapon down the stretch and into a hopeful postseason berth. The addition of Bailey seems intended to address rather a different need — solid innings over the course of the season — though he also comes with a sort of upside of his own.

The 33-year-old Bailey had a nice bounceback showing in 2019, particularly after a mid-season move from the Royals to the Athletics. He finished the campaign with 163 1/3 innings of 4.57 ERA ball, with 8.2 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. In a season full of explosive offensive performances, those were rather useful frames. Bailey logged 2.9 fWAR and 1.8 rWAR in 2019, the sort of output that would justify his current contract if repeated.

Notably, Bailey showed an uptick in his swinging-strike rate, posting a 10.8% level that he hadn’t touched since his heyday. That’s increasingly easy to accomplish in today’s game but still notable for a pitcher that generally fills up the zone. Bailey’s 93+ mph average fastball was shy of his peak but in line with his post-Tommy John levels. His mid-season strides don’t seem to correspond to any major changes to his approach or pitch quality, so there’s no particular reason to expect a late-career breakout, but his peripherals and Statcast numbers generally support Bailey’s low-4 ERA output.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Edwin Jackson Intends To Pitch In 2020

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Veteran hurler Edwin Jackson says he’s planning to pitch again in 2020, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets. The 36-year-old has already thrown in parts of 17 seasons with 14 different teams — an MLB record he set last year.

Jackson was once a prized young hurler and a high-quality veteran. He had already moved around a fair bit when he finally landed a big, multi-year deal with the Cubs back in 2013.

Unfortunately, E-Jax fell short of expectations in Chicago. He has since morphed into the game’s ultimate journeyman, logging big league innings with nine organizations in a span of just five campaigns.

Through nearly two thousand MLB frames, Jackson carries a 4.78 ERA. He hucked 92 frames of 3.33 ERA ball with the A’s in 2018 but limped to a 9.58 ERA in 2019 with the Blue Jays and Tigers. While interested teams will surely not expect a return to that ’18 uptick, there is still some appeal to the durable and highly respected veteran, who works in the 93 to 94 mph range with his fastball and would be a valuable mentor to younger pitchers.

Remaining Needs: AL East

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With the new year upon us, MLBTR is going through all 30 teams’ remaining needs by division.  We’ve already checked in on the NL East, AL West, AL Central, NL Central, and NL West. That leaves the American League East …

Baltimore Orioles [Offseason Outlook]

Outside of dealing away Dylan Bundy, it has been a quiet winter for sophomore GM Mike Elias. There just isn’t much pressing roster-building work to be done for a club that was badly in need of a full rebuild when Elias took the helm.

More than anything, the O’s will spend the next few weeks exploring further trade possibilities. Reliever Mychal Givens and slugger Trey Mancini are obvious candidates to be dealt. Hanser Alberto and a few others could also conceivably be of interest elsewhere.

Other than filling in for any further departures, the O’s still need to add a few pieces — both to keep some standard of MLB capabilities and to seek upside that might be turned into trade capital. The departure of Jonathan Villar leaves an opening at shortstop that hasn’t yet been filled. (Last year’s Rule 5 pick, Richie Martin, ought to get some dearly missed Triple-A seasoning.) The O’s could easily find space for a buy-low option at third base or the corner outfield as well. Adding Kohl Stewart and a pair of Rule 5 hurlers helps the pitching depth picture, but there’s still plenty of room to add arms onto the roster.

Boston Red Sox [Offseason Outlook]

Incoming chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom was tasked with getting the Sox beneath the luxury line but staying competitive. He has taken several steps towards that goal by buying low on Martin Perez and Jose Peraza. Standing alone, however, those deals only add salary to the MLB roster.

It’d be a big surprise at this point if the Boston organization doesn’t swing a significant trade or two over the next several weeks. David Price and Jackie Bradley Jr. seem likeliest to be dealt, though Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Eduardo Rodriguez, and others probably can’t be ruled out entirely.

Back-filling for any departures will be a top priority. No matter who leaves, Bloom will be hunting for value in the bullpen, eyeing up rotation depth, and exploring bench improvements. The Sox could still stand to add another piece to the first base mix (perhaps a left-handed hitter to pair with Michael Chavis) and are hurting for catching depth. Just how much flexibility Bloom will have to pursue new adds will depend upon how much salary he sheds via trade.

New York Yankees [Offseason Outlook]

The one massive priority of the offseason was achieved when Gerrit Cole went rooting around his parents’ basement to dig up the sign he brought to Yankee Stadium as a kid. (“Mom! Where’s my sign?!?!”) Retaining Brett Gardner and adding Erik Kratz for depth also checked boxes.

Any follow-ups to the Cole signing will surely feel like lesser events. But they could yet make a big impact. The Yanks don’t really need anything, but have dabbled with some elite relievers and may have a major strike up their sleeve. There’s some amount of roster pressure involving young power hitters Miguel Andujar and Clint Frazier, but they are assets the Yanks will surely put to use on the field or via trade. Moving J.A. Happ would help with payroll management.

Tampa Bay Rays [Offseason Outlook]

The Rays have not only exemplified, but driven baseball’s de-formalization of roles. Scanning their present roster really drives this fact home. The team is laden with multi-functional players and situational possibilities. This applies to both pitchers and hitters.

In theory, the Rays could add just about any player they like and make it work. Value is paramount. Those considerations explain the team’s pursuit of left-handed-hitting center fielder Shogo Akiyama despite the presence of Kevin Kiermaier, not to mention the addition of countrymate Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, who joins a roster with quite a few other quality lefty bats.

Without any glaring need, per se, the Rays can perhaps be expected to keep doing what they do. We’ve see this organization hammer out somewhat complicated trades involving under-the-radar players time and time again. But we’ve also seen targeted gambles, such as last winter’s wise inking of Charlie Morton. With the powerhouse Yankees cresting, the Rays will need to press hard — and consider going outside of their comfort zone — to add a finishing piece or two to this roster. Given the versatility on hand, just about any high-value opportunity seems plausible.

Toronto Blue Jays [Offseason Outlook]

Public pressure can’t be the sole explanation for the Jays’ big strike for Hyun-Jin Ryu, but it surely played a role. Now that Ryu, Tanner Roark, and others have been installed in a revamped rotation, the front office can breathe a bit easier.

That’s a far sight from declaring this roster a potential winner. But it does seem to have a fair bit of upside in the form of young, elite talent and post-hype bounceback candidates. The position-player unit is littered with names that populated top prospect lists. It’s an ultra high-variance mix, which seems generally appropriate for this stage of the organization’s rebuild.

It’s certainly arguable the Toronto org ought to grab an open-market option or two in favor of some of its preexisting players. The corner outfield seems particularly susceptible of improvement, though the Jays would rather not fully block some of the guys they’ve picked up in recent years. The other interesting area is the bullpen, which is loaded up with uncertainty … and which includes one of the top trade candidates on the market. It’d obviously hurt the team’s 2020 outlook to move Ken Giles, but it’s awfully tough to bypass a return — especially with what appears to be a favorable market situation — for a guy who’ll reach free agency at season’s end.

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