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Archives for September 2019

Poll: Grading Bryce Harper’s 2019

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Outfielder Bryce Harper was a dominant presence on this website and every other national baseball media outlet last winter, at which point the then-free agent was coming off a stellar run in Washington. One of the most hyped players in the sport since he was a teenager, Harper reached the open market as a six-time All-Star and a one-time National League Most Valuable Player with 30.5 fWAR/27.4 bWAR on his resume. Harper accomplished those feats by the ripe old age of 26, and with youth on his side, he looked like a strong bet to reel in the largest free-agent contract in the history of baseball. In the end, that’s exactly what happened.

While Harper’s stay on the open market lasted longer than expected, he eventually agreed to a record pact to exit the Nationals for the division-rival Phillies. His 13-year, $330MM deal became official March 1, standing as the biggest guarantee ever doled out until the Angels’ Mike Trout signed a decade-long extension worth $360MM three weeks later.

Thanks to the Harper signing and their several other headline-grabbing offseason pickups, the Phillies came into 2019 with a seemingly realistic chance of breaking a seven-year playoff drought. Instead, though, they’ve locked up yet another October-less season with just a few days to go. Now 79-80 and in the throes of another uninspiring late-season finish, it appears the club will be fortunate just to post its first .500 campaign since 2012.

It’s clear the Phillies will go down as one of this year’s most disappointing teams, but that’s not to suggest Harper has been at fault. If one player could elevate a team from mediocrity to excellence, then Trout’s Angels would be in title contention every year instead of regularly wallowing at the bottom of the AL West. Harper’s no Trout (who is?), but it doesn’t seem fair to assign any of the blame for Philly’s struggles to him.

The fact is that Harper’s overall 2019 output hasn’t been much different than the production he managed in D.C. on multiple occasions. With a .261/.374/.511 line in 668 plate appearances, Harper’s offensive production has been a more-than-respectable 26 percent better than league average, according to FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric. He has also slugged at least 30 home runs (34) for the third time and stolen 14 bases on 17 attempts.

Harper was a superior offensive player last year, as his 135 wRC+ shows; on the other hand, his defense has dramatically improved compared to 2018. In his final season as a National, Harper combined for hideous numbers between center and right field, where he totaled minus-26 Defensive Runs Saved, a minus-14.4 Ultimate Zone Rating and minus-13 Outs Above Average. Harper ranked among the majors’ five worst outfielders in all of those categories, including dead last in UZR. This year, however, Harper has accounted for 7 DRS, 10.9 UZR and 1 OAA whiil spending all his time in right.

Harper’s offensive and defensive contributions have been enough for 4.5 fWAR and 3.9 bWAR as we reach the season’s final weekend. Both figures are very good, not great, though that’s hardly an insult. But what do you think? Should the Phillies be happy with what Harper has done in the first year of his historic deal?

(Poll link for app users)

Derek Dietrich Undergoes Shoulder Procedure

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Reds infielder Derek Dietrich has undergone left shoulder surgery, as Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer was among those to cover on Twitter. Fortunately, the clean-up procedure did not reveal any significant damage.

The expectation is that Dietrich will have a more-or-less unimpeded offseason. If there truly aren’t any real ongoing concerns, then it seems likely the club can make a decision whether to tender Dietrich a contract without worrying much about his health.

That said, it’s hardly clear that the Reds will want to commit to Dietrich for 2020. The 30-year-old had a monster showing in the first two months of the season but fell off badly thereafter. He hasn’t played much at all in the second half and a .187/.328/.462 overall slash line that translates only to a 103 wRC+.

Reviewing Largest Expiring Contracts: Pitchers

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With the regular season on the verge of ending and free agency just over a month away, this is a good time to check in on how the majors’ largest expiring contracts have panned out. We’ll start with five pitchers whose deals have guaranteed them at least $40MM. Keep in mind that the list doesn’t include players with opt-out clauses or those with club options that’ll likely be exercised…

Felix Hernandez, Mariners (seven years, $175MM)
Total fWAR: 15.9
Dollar value of contributions (per FanGraphs): $121.5MM

  • When Hernandez inked his extension with the Mariners in 2013, it was the largest guarantee a pitcher had ever received. King Felix earned the honor by racking up three All-Star appearances and taking home an American League Cy Young Award during the first few years of his career, putting him on a Hall of Fame track. Hernandez continued to flourish during the initial three years of his extension, but his effectiveness began to wane to a dramatic extent in 2016, and he hasn’t been the same since. Injuries have limited the former perennial 200-inning right-hander to fewer than 100 frames in two of the past four seasons, including a career-low 71 2/3 in 2019. When the 33-year-old Hernandez has taken the mound over the past couple seasons, the results haven’t been pretty. Although Hernandez says he’s not retiring, the dismal 6.40 ERA/6.01 FIP he has put up this season should hold him to a minor league contract (if anything) during the upcoming winter.

Cole Hamels, Cubs (seven years, $164MM, including $20MM option for 2019)
Total fWAR: 23.1
Dollar value of contributions: $180.1MM

  • Hamels signed his deal with the Phillies in 2012, and though the southpaw has also pitched for the Rangers and Cubs since his extension kicked in the next season, he certainly hasn’t been a big-money bust. On the contrary, Hamels has provided respectable results throughout the pact, which is why the Cubs picked up the 35-year-old’s option for $20MM entering the present campaign. Injuries have somewhat slowed Hamels this year, but he has still performed well enough to rake in another decent payday after the season.

Rick Porcello, Red Sox (four years, $82.5MM)
Total fWAR: 13.1
Dollar value of contributions: $104.5MM

  • Porcello hadn’t even taken the ball in a regular-season game yet when the Red Sox extended him in April 2015, which came shortly after they acquired the righty from the Tigers. A half-decade later, it seems fair to say the club doesn’t regret the gamble. While Porcello’s overall run prevention hasn’t been spectacular since his deal took effect in 2016 (4.33 ERA/4.16 FIP), he has remained a consistent innings eater to this day, and the high points of his Red Sox tenure have been extraordinarily high. He won the AL Cy Young in 2016 and enjoyed a solid 2018 to help the Red Sox to a World Series title. However, this season has been a struggle for the 30-year-old Porcello, whose ERA (5.52) and FIP (4.77) are among the worst in baseball. As a result, he won’t be hitting the open market with much momentum.

Madison Bumgarner, Giants (seven years, $59MM, including options exercised for 2018-19)
Total fWAR: 22.6
Dollar value of contributions: $177MM

  • This extension has been an absolute steal for the Giants, who guaranteed Bumgarner $35MM early in 2012 – a year in which he went on to win his second World Series. The contract didn’t officially begin until 2013, and all Bumgarner has done since then is win another title, continue to cement himself in playoff lore, go to four All-Star games and record a 3.10 ERA/3.36 FIP across regular-season 1,312 innings. The 30-year-old lefty hasn’t been quite as great this season, but after two straight injury-shortened campaigns, Bumgarner has turned back into a workhorse with 207 2/3 frames of 3.90 ERA/3.91 FIP ball and 8.5 K/9 against 1.86 BB/9. If Bumgarner and the Giants don’t come together on a new deal in the coming weeks, he’ll be an enticing (and fairly expensive) free-agent target for plenty of teams over the winter.

Rich Hill, Dodgers (three years, $48MM)
Total fWAR: 4.8
Dollar value of contributions: $38.3

  • Hill’s the sole hurler on this list who actually received his contract as a free agent. It was a bold move at the time by the Dodgers to re-sign Hill, then a 36-year-old who had only recently blossomed into a quality major league lefty. Hill has shown since then that the unexpected success he experienced shortly before landing his life-changing payday wasn’t a fluke, having registered a 3.33 ERA/3.90 FIP and helped the Dodgers to a pair of NL pennants. Unfortunately, though, injuries have been an all-too-common occurrence for Hill over the life of his deal, including during a 55 2/3-inning 2019. That’s not say the deep-pocketed Dodgers would undo the signing if given a chance, however, considering Hill’s effective numbers and his respected clubhouse presence. Hill will have a chance over the next few weeks to help the Dodgers to a World Series, and even though he’ll turn 40 in March, he’s not thinking retirement. Of course, thanks to his injury woes and age, Hill’s in for a far less lucrative trip to free agency this time.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Taijuan Walker To Start D-Backs’ Final Game

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Righty Taijuan Walker may not have returned in time to make a meaningful impact for the Diamondbacks this year, but he’ll throw at least one inning on the season. The club announced today that he’ll take the ball for a single-frame start on Sunday, as Zach Buchanan of The Athletic was among those to cover on Twitter.

Walker was expected to return much earlier after rehabbing nearly the way back from Tommy John surgery. But a shoulder injury put a halt to his progress — and raised yet more significant questions about his long-term outlook.

The brief outing represents a nice reward for the 27-year-old’s grinding recovery efforts. It’ll be his first time taking the big league hill since mid-April of last year. Walker had turned in a highly promising 2017 season, working to a 3.49 ERA in 157 1/3 innings, but only made it three starts into the ensuing campaign.

This appearance won’t change the immediate salary situation for Walker, who earned just over $5MM in 2019. He’s certain to receive a repeat salary in his final season of arbitration eligibility, with free agency beckoning at the tail end of the 2020 campaign. The stakes are high for player and team. With a healthy Walker, the D-Backs could have a strong rotation made up almost entirely of traded-for hurlers. And the talented righty will be looking to set the stage for free agency.

Ender Inciarte Will Not Return To Braves For NLDS

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The Braves have shut down outfielder Ender Inciarte from physical activity, manager Brian Snitker told reporters including Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (via Twitter). He’s not going to be a part of the team’s upcoming divisional series roster.

Inciarte had hoped to appear in the team’s final series of the regular season. But it didn’t go well when he tested out his injured hamstring today. The decision was made that he simply won’t be ready when the NLDS gets underway on October 3rd.

Going without Inciarte isn’t a huge surprise at this point, and the impact is mitigated somewhat by the fact that Nick Markakis was able to return from his own significant injury. The club can still trot out Billy Hamilton in a run-and-glove role, too, though he’s not to Inciarte’s standard with the bat.

At this point, at least, the Atlanta organization isn’t ruling Inciarte out for a hypothetical championship series round return. But he’ll need to rest up and test the hammy once more. And it’ll take a bit of a leap of faith to activate him at that point, given the risk of aggravating the injury and the fact that he hasn’t seen live game action in months.

Red Sox Aim To Get Under Luxury Line In 2020, Seek Outside GM

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In eye-popping late-September news, the Red Sox top brass told reporters that they aim to get under the luxury tax line for the 2020 campaign. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (Twitter feed) is among those covering the fascinating statements of principal owner John Henry, chairman Tom Werner, and president/CEO Sam Kennedy.

There’s loads to unpack here, but the payroll comment is of particular note, because the Boston organization spent over $230MM in each of the past two seasons and already has over $150MM (as calculated for competitive balance tax purposes) committed for 2020 — before accounting for expensive arbitration raises for Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Eduardo Rodriguez.

Dipping under the luxury line to re-set the tax penalty would mean getting south of $208MM. That’s simply not going to be possible without some notable roster changes, even with a number of players departing via free agency. J.D. Martinez is an obvious wild card here, as he’d open a big chunk of change if he opts out of his deal, but that’d also leave a significant hole in the lineup.

So, does that mean Betts is destined to depart? Not at all, per the organizational leadership. Though Betts has made clear time and time again that he’s not interested in an extension, Werner says the team intends to actively pursue further extension talks this winter — and has already reached out to Betts’s agent to get the ball rolling.

Even if Betts remains on the roster, at least for one more campaign, it’s fair to wonder whether the Red Sox are set to begin some kind of reloading effort. The trio denied that they see the upcoming season as a moment to step back from full competitiveness. It remains difficult to imagine a complete rebuild, but it’s equally hard to imagine how the club will compile a truly competitive roster while also drawing down payroll so significantly.

Needless to say, making the difficult tradeoffs that will be required promises to be quite tricky. While the Red Sox say they have ample confidence in the four executives currently guiding the baseball operations department following Dave Dombrowski’s ouster, they plan to seek an experienced general manager to take the helm. That sets up a fascinating outside hiring search, with the organization seeking a tried-and-true baseball ops leader.

The circumstances of Dombrowski’s departure remain a hot topic, particularly given the notable gap between the event and today’s full-scale media availability. Henry explains that differences arose in the immediate aftermath of last year’s World Series win and couldn’t be bridged throughout the ensuing campaign. While some have wondered whether the upheaval at the top could compromise the Boston organization’s ability to lure whatever exec they set their sights upon, Werner suggested that’s not a concern held internally. “I consider this position to be one of the most coveted in all of sports,” he said.

Tim Wallach Will Not Return As Marlins Bench Coach

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Veteran coach and long-time big leaguer Tim Wallach will step away from the Marlins at the end of the season, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter links). Wallach has served as the bench coach in Miami since the 2016 season.

Though the Marlins decided to retain skipper Don Mattingly, they’ll be on the look for a new second in command in the dugout. The split is entirely amicable, it seems. Per Heyman, Wallach would simply like to live nearer to his extended family.

Wallach is said to be willing to continue his coaching career elsewhere if it puts him closer to his native California. He had spent his prior coaching career with the Dodgers organization.

Jonathan Villar’s Second-Half Surge

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Jonathan Villar’s name was barely kicked around the rumor circuit prior to this year’s trade deadline, with the Cubs standing out as the only team reported to have shown much interest. That doesn’t mean that Villar wasn’t discussed with other clubs, of course. But when an affordable veteran ($4.825MM) with only one and a half seasons of control remaining on one of the game’s worst teams doesn’t change hands at the deadline, it’s likely that interest in him was generally tepid.

Jonathan Villar | Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

Really, there weren’t many infielders who changed hands at all on this year’s trade market. Jesus Aguilar, Scooter Gennett and Tony Kemp were traded largely for depth purposes. Prospects like Mauricio Dubon, Nick Solak and Josh Rojas were moved as hopeful long-term pieces. Among established middle infielders, Eric Sogard might’ve been the most consequential player traded. (Freddy Galvis later changed hands via August waiver claim.)

It stands to reason that not many teams were keen on making middle-infield upgrades, but that won’t be as true in the winter when all 29 other teams are taking a fresh look at their roster. And Villar has been nothing short of brilliant since the deadline passed, which certainly can’t hurt the Orioles’ chances of finding a team willing to part with some future in exchange for his final season of club control.

Villar, 29 next May, was already in the midst of a solid season in late July. On the morning of July 31, he carried a .266/.329/.425 batting line, 13 home runs and 23 steals on the season. For a middle infielder with ample experience at both positions — even if he’s not a great defender at either — that’s respectable output. Villar had a 98 wRC+ at that point, whereas the league-average second baseman was at 93. Essentially, Villar had been about five percent better than an average-hitting second baseman and about two percent worse than an average shortstop (100 wRC+ in 2019).

Since that time? Villar has improved across the board. He’s hitting .295/.364/.524 with 11 homers, nine doubles, three triples and 16 stolen bases (in 19 tries). Villar has punched out a slight bit more over the season’s final two months, but his overall strikeout rate on the season (24.9 percent) has improved for the second straight year since his career-worst 30.3 percent in 2017. His average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and launch angle are all below average but have all improved for the second straight season. And while Villar isn’t the burner one might expect for someone with his stolen-base totals, he’s been highly efficient across the past two seasons, going 74-of-88 in that regard (84.1 percent).

Thanks to the strength of his second half, Villar’s offensive output (108 wRC+) now checks in 15 percent better than the average second baseman and eight percent better than the average shortstop. Like many switch-hitters, he’s been better from one side of the plate (116 wRC+ as a lefty, 94 as a righty), but he hasn’t been completely overmatched regardless of which batter’s box he stands.

Villar earned $4.825MM in 2019, and he’ll take home a solid raise on that sum thanks to his workload (159 games, 700 plate appearances at the moment) and his career-best counting stats. But even if Villar matches the 89 percent raise he received in arbitration last year, his salary will still clock in at about $9.125MM. Compare him, at that rate, to the rest of the rest of the free-agent class, and Villar looks like a sound one-year pickup before qualifying as a free agent himself next winter. That’s nearly the same price at which Brian Dozier ($9MM) signed with the Nationals this past winter after an off year and only slightly more than Jonathan Schoop ($7.5MM) received from the Twins. Villar’s four wins above replacement (4.0 bWAR, 3.9 fWAR) outweigh that pair of veterans combined.

This could be a peak year for Villar, but he’s now been worth at least two wins in three of the past four seasons, making his 2017 flop with the Brewers look more and more like an outlier. The free-agent market at shortstop has a pretty intriguing rebound candidate in Didi Gregorius and a defensive stalwart in Jose Iglesias. Dozier, Schoop and perhaps Mike Moustakas will headline the options on the other side of the bag. It’s not an elite class.

Villar may not be elite himself, but he’s a solid regular player who’ll come with an affordable price tag. The Orioles aren’t going to receive a king’s ransom for him by any means, but he’s also someone who should command a decent prospect or two in return. In retrospect, some team probably should’ve paid that price back in July.

Examining A Potential Jorge Soler Extension

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While it’s been a tough season for the Royals as a team, Jorge Soler has emerged as a bright spot in the heart of the lineup, hitting .262/.352/.555 with 45 home runs in a career-high 668 plate appearances. Long one of the game’s top hitting prospects, the now-27-year-old Soler (28 in February) has finally displayed the enormous raw power that garnered so much praise as a minor leaguer. Kansas City still controls Soler through 2021, but MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan writes in his latest Royals inbox column that he’s “convinced” the team will offer Soler an extension this winter.

Soler’s current contractual status is a bit unique, as he signed a nine-year, $30MM contract with the Cubs back in 2012 when he was just 20 years old. International free agency wasn’t nearly as restricted then as it is now — under current rules, he’d have been limited to a minor league deal and likely garnered a signing bonus worth less than a quarter of that guarantee — and the Cubs committed both a lengthy term and sizable guarantee despite knowing he’d need to log time in the minors.

Jorge Soler | Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Soler is “signed” for the 2020 season at just $4MM, but he can opt out of that guaranteed salary and into MLB’s arbitration process this winter, as is the case with many Cuban defectors who signed Major League deals under the previous international free agency infrastructure. Based on his 45-homer campaign, he’s a lock to do just that. Arbitration raises for international players who opt out of this type of arrangement haven’t always been as steep as one might expect, but Soler will clearly top a $4MM salary. And since he’d be arb-eligible again in 2021, his salary for that season would be dependent on the size of the raise he gets in arbitration this winter.

All of that would be rendered moot in the event of a new long-term arrangement, though. Soler and the Royals will surely be talking contract when arbitration figures are exchanged in January, and that seems like a reasonable point at which the two sides could avoid a particularly tricky arbitration case with a multi-year arrangement. If not then, Spring Training extensions are commonplace.

There’s good reason for both parties to be amenable to a deal. Soler has banked a substantial sum in his career already but has yet to lock in a multi-year deal that pays him anywhere near open-market prices. The Royals, meanwhile, are aiming for a return to contention in 2021, and losing their top slugger at the end of that season would be a step backward. Soler is currently on track to become a free agent in advance of his age-30 season, so the Royals would be acquiring some additional prime years in a theoretical long-term deal.

The price of Soler’s would-be free-agent seasons is up for debate. Nelson Cruz has played each of the past five seasons (2019 included) for an annual rate around $14.25MM. He was considerably older than Soler when he signed a four-year, $57MM deal with the Mariners and his most recent one year, $14.3MM deal with the Twins. Edwin Encarnacion secured a $20MM annual rate in his three-year deal with the Indians — a contract that began with his age-33 season. Both right-handed sluggers had considerably longer track records of productivity than does Soler when they signed their contracts, though, and both had the benefit of an open-market setting. Soler didn’t even log a full big league season with Kansas City in either 2017 or 2018, posting a combined .228/.322/.403 batting line through 367 plate appearances across those two years.

Any power hitter’s production in 2019 is also going to be met with some skepticism as a result of this year’s explosive ball. That’s not to say the Royals should expect Soler to turn into a pumpkin when the clock strikes midnight on the 2019 season, but they’d be justified in pondering to what extent his power might scale back if the 2020 ball is more in line with previous seasons.

The length of an extension, of course, will be the other key part of the debate. Recent extensions for players with between four and five years of service time include Randal Grichuk and Jean Segura, both of whom signed away three free-agent seasons in addition to their remaining two arbitration years. Segura’s deal included an option for another year. In the case of Soler, who has a limited track record and notable injury history, a contract that exceeds five seasons in length seems like a reach. A total of five guaranteed years seems attainable.

Perhaps the biggest wild card in forecasting a possible extension value for Soler lies in the how his arbitration seasons are valued. As we saw with Jose Abreu, Yasiel Puig and others, this type of contract is handled atypically in arbitration. Abreu hit .293/.353/.468 with 25 home runs the year before he opted into arbitration, and his salary only rose from $10MM to $10.825MM. A year later, he received a raise barely north of $2MM after posting an outstanding .304/.354/.552 slash with 33 homers. Puig, meanwhile, opted into arbitration last winter when he reached five-plus years of service time and, working from a smaller 2018 base salary of $6.5MM, jumped up to $9.7MM. He’d have earned $7.5MM had he stuck with his initial contract.

Depending on how Soler’s arbitration seasons are valued, Grichuk’s five-year, $52MM contract could be a particularly relevant comparison. They’re different types of players, of course, but their final two arb seasons could fall within the same ballpark. The roughly $13MM annual rate at which Grichuk’s free-agent seasons were valued in his extension could also be a point of reference Soler’s camp seeks to top; doing so would put him in Cruz territory for the average annual value of his free-agent seasons. I’d imagine Soler would do a bit better than Grichuk in terms of overall guarantee, but something in that general vicinity seems like a plausible landing point for the burgeoning slugger.

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