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Archives for August 2019

Angels’ Billy Eppler On Upcoming Pitching Market

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With the Angels hard up for starting help and Astros right-hander Gerrit Cole a pending free agent who hails from Southern California, they’ll be a speculative landing spot for the Cy Young candidate. Cole tossed a bit of fuel on the fire after dominating in Anaheim on July 17, saying (via Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times): “I grew up here, watched games when they still had bleachers. It’s a really unique park. Driving up the 57 today, seeing the Big A, it’s always cool. It’s always special. In an industry where you don’t always get to see your family as much as you would like, getting to hug your mom after the game is nice.”

As one of the game’s preeminent aces, the soon-to-be 29-year-old Cole is a solid bet to land a $200MM-plus contract in the coming months. However, as DiGiovanna points out, the Angels have never even handed out a $100MM deal to a pitcher. But that doesn’t mean the franchise that signed off on (ill-fated) contracts worth a combined $365MM to hitters Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton several years ago will shy away from a gargantuan outlay for a pitcher.

“We haven’t secured one, but that doesn’t mean we haven’t explored one,” general manager Billy Eppler told DiGiovanna on Wednesday. “There is not a philosophy or a directive in our organization to avoid sizable investments in pitching. The circumstances need to warrant such an investment.”

The Angels did think one starter, Patrick Corbin, was deserving of that type of investment last winter. They offered Corbin a little over $100MM, per DiGiovanna, though that still fell well short of the winning bid for the left-hander. The Nationals ended up securing Corbin on a six-year, $140MM guarantee, and he now looks as if he’ll help pitch them to the playoffs in his first season in D.C. The Angels took less risky routes, inking Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill to one-year commitments worth a combined $20MM. The phrase “no risk, no reward” applies in those two cases. The Angels released Harvey on July 23 after he tossed a dreadful 59 2/3 innings for the franchise. Cahill’s still a member of the Angels, but he’ll also go in the books as a failed signing. He lost his place in their rotation weeks ago and has logged a 6.28 ERA in 81 2/3 innings.

Thanks in part to the abysmal performances of Harvey and Cahill, the Angels are on track for their fifth straight non-playoff season. Their rotation has been a sore spot, ranking 28th in the majors in ERA (5.45) and 29th in FIP (29th). Heading into 2020, two-way star and 2018 Tommy John patient Shohei Ohtani will return to the mound, which will be an invaluable boost. Tragically, though, the Angels lost a key part of their staff and team last month when Tyler Skaggs passed away. Now, in all likelihood, Ohtani, Andrew Heaney and Griffin Canning are the only surefire bets for next season’s rotation.

The Angels’ dearth of quality starters could lead them to free agency – not necessarily just to Cole – as “the market will have some pitching on it,” Eppler said. “I’m sure we’ll be sitting with [free agents] and seeing if something can be worked out.”

Cole may end up as the lone starter to break the nine-figure barrier during the offseason, but he won’t be the sole high-profile arm available. Lefties Madison Bumgarner (Giants), Hyun-Jin Ryu (Dodgers), Cole Hamels (Cubs) and Dallas Keuchel (Braves), as well as righties Zack Wheeler (Mets), Jake Odorizzi and Kyle Gibson (both Twins) could represent other options for the Angels. While Cole’s the ultimate prize, anyone from that group should be able to upgrade the Angels’ rotation and give them a better shot at a playoff berth in 2020.

Quick Hits: Pirates, Huntington, Hurdle, Padres, Mariners

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As part of a mailbag covering the floundering Pirates, Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic (subscription link) focuses on team higher-ups whose jobs could be in jeopardy. Biertempfel writes it’s “more likely” the club will fire pitching coach Ray Searage and maybe bullpen coach Euclides Rojas than either GM Neal Huntington or manager Clint Hurdle, at least during the season. Searage’s ouster would mark the end of what has been an oft-praised Pirates stint, but this season has been a rough go for their pitching staff. How much blame he should take for that is up for debate. As for Huntington and Hurdle, their jobs for 2020 aren’t etched in stone, suggests Biertempfel, who reports owner Bob Nutting would be willing to eat their salaries and fire them “if he is convinced that there is no hope of improvement in 2020.” With that in mind, the onus could be on Huntington and Hurdle to explain why they should keep their positions.

  • More from Biertempfel, who dismisses the possibility of outfielder Lonnie Chisenhall playing for the Pirates this season. Chisenhall remains at home in Bradenton, Fla., mending from left calf troubles, and there won’t be enough time for him to return to the majors this year. It seems the $2.75MM the Pirates gave Chisenhall last offseason will go down as a wasted investment. By the time this season ends, injuries will have kept the former Indian out of 375 of a possible 486 regular-season games dating back to 2017.
  • After missing the first four-plus months of the season with a flexor strain, Padres left-handed reliever Jose Castillo finally made his 2019 debut on Thursday. It didn’t go well, however. Castillo exited with an injury to the middle finger on his throwing hand, per AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. It’s fortunate that it isn’t another elbow problem for Castillo, though he still could end up heading back to the injured list because of this issue. The 23-year-old hasn’t gotten a chance to build on a superb rookie campaign in 2018, when he fired 38 1/3 innings of 3.29 ERA/2.64 FIP ball with 12.21 K/9 against 2.82 BB/9.
  • Rehabbing Mariners righty Felix Hernandez threw two innings at the Single-A level Thursday, after which he told Julian A. Lopez of the Modesto Bee he feels ready to return to the majors. The Mariners have other plans, though – they want Hernandez to make two rehab appearances with Triple-A Tacoma before he finally goes back to the Seattle. Shoulder woes have kept the pending free agent from the M’s staff since May 11 in what could be the final season of his storied tenure with the franchise.

Mets Interested In Joe Panik

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FRIDAY: There’s “a strong chance” Panik will sign with the Mets when he clears waivers, Martino writes.

THURSDAY: The Mets have interest in Giants second baseman Joe Panik, Andy Martino of SNY.tv reports.  Panik was designated for assignment Tuesday and placed on release waivers yesterday, and he’ll officially enter into free agency at noon CT on Friday if he isn’t claimed by another team in the interim.

The Mets’ interest may hinge on whether or not Panik is actually on the open market.  If Panik were to sign as a free agent, New York would only be responsible for paying him a prorated MLB minimum salary for the rest of the season (roughly $164K) and the Giants would have to cover the $956K still owed to Panik for the remainder of the one-year, $3.8MM contract he signed last offseason.  If the Mets were to just claim Panik off waivers, they’d have to pay him the entire $1.12MM in remaining salary themselves.

As recently noted by The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, the Mets are quite close to the luxury tax threshold of $206MM, as Roster Resource estimates New York’s luxury tax number at just under $203.38MM, counting the newly-signed Brad Brach’s minimum salary.  Since the team is loath to make any tax payments and player movement is more difficult now that the trade deadline has passed, the Mets are targeting players like Panik or Brach, who can potentially contribute while their former teams foot the bulk of the bill.  MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reports that at least one other team besides the Mets has interest in Panik, though it isn’t known if this mystery team is willing to make a claim for Panik, or if they are also waiting for Panik to hit free agency.

Panik would provide New York with a short-term replacement for Robinson Cano at second base while Cano is on the injured list, though it’s a fair question to wonder how much Panik can produce in the wake of his recent performance.  Aside from an All-Star season in 2015, Panik has been a below-average hitter for the rest of his career, including hitting only .245/.308/.325 over 780 plate appearances since the start of the 2018 campaign.  As maligned as Cano’s 2019 season has been, Panik has actually been worse — Cano’s 0.4 fWAR is superior to Panik’s sub-replacement level -0.2 fWAR.

Still, at a minimum price, there’s little harm for the Mets in taking a flier on Panik if nothing else than an extra body in their infield mix.  Panik would also add another left-handed bat to a largely right-handed Mets lineup, and his presence at second base would allow Jeff McNeil to remain largely in the outfield.

MLBTR Poll: J.D. Martinez’s Opt-Out Clause

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The offseason could come sooner than expected for the reigning World Series champion Red Sox, whose playoff chances have dwindled in the year’s second half. Losers of nine of their past 11, the Red Sox sit a stunning 16 games behind the Yankees in the AL East and 5 1/2 back of a wild-card spot. The club has already lost more games in 2019 (56) than it did last regular season (54), and it still has 45 games to go.

Boston’s fall certainly hasn’t been the fault of designated hitter J.D. Martinez, who has been on another of his signature offensive rampages of late. After four straight multi-hit games, his line has climbed to .304/.379/.547 – one of its highest points of the season. Unfortunately for the Red Sox, these may be the final weeks with the club for Martinez. He’ll dive back into free agency if he opts out of his contract after the season, though he’s far from a lock to abandon his deal.

Returning to the open market – where the former Astro, Tiger and Diamondback joined the Red Sox on a five-year, $110MM contract back in February 2018 – would mean leaving a substantial amount of money on the table. However, while Martinez will still have another three years and $62.5MM left when this season concludes, he’s not ruling out another stab at free agency. Martinez said last month he plans to leave his future in the hands of famed agent Scott Boras.

Based on his production, Martinez has a case for more money than he stands to earn on his current deal. Martinez was one of the game’s greatest hitters in the handful of years preceding his Boston deal, and that hasn’t changed. Although Martinez’s numbers have markedly fallen off compared to where they were from 2017-18, that’s more a compliment to his output then than an indictment on what he has done this year. With 25 home runs in 479 plate appearances, Martinez is on pace for his third straight year with at least 30 HRs. His wRC+ (136) is tied with Anthony Rizzo and Josh Bell for 19th among qualified hitters, and his .408 expected weighted on-base average ranks quite a bit higher. Only fellow offensive luminaries Mike Trout, Cody Bellinger, Nelson Cruz, Christian Yelich, Anthony Rendon, Yordan Alvarez and Aaron Judge rank above Martinez in that department.

It’s fair to say Martinez remains an absolute force at the plate, then, and it would surely help his cause that he’d be a big fish in a fairly small free-agent pond. Aside from Rendon, a fellow Boras client and the lone pending free-agent position player who looks like a shoo-in for a $100MM-plus contract, Martinez would be the second-most appealing hitter available. Still, the soon-to-be 32-year-old and Boras might be leery of taking advantage of his opt-out. Free agency has been tough on even highly decorated 30-somethings in recent years, especially those who come with qualifying offers attached (just ask Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel).

Martinez didn’t receive a QO in his previous trip to free agency because it came after a midseason trade, but the Red Sox would no doubt saddle him with one during the upcoming winter. Plus, although he remains among the majors’ most formidable hitters, that’s essentially where all of Martinez’s on-field value comes from. Formerly a regular in the outfield, he’s easily on pace for his second straight season of fewer than 500 innings in the grass. That doesn’t mean Martinez’s offense won’t continue to make him immensely valuable going forward – former Red Sox DH David Ortiz and the aforementioned Cruz are two examples of offense-only players who’ve been tremendous even in the twilight of their careers. The lack of a real position still won’t do Martinez’s market any favors, though, especially considering there aren’t any near-term plans for the National League to implement the DH.

There’s no easy answer here for the Martinez-Boras tandem, who can either choose the bird-in-hand route or take a gamble on his bat leading him to even more cash than he’s due on his present pact. Without question, it’ll be one of the most interesting early offseason situations to watch. As of now, how do you expect it to play out?

(Poll link for app users)

Anthony Rizzo Discusses Contract, Future

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With up to two years of club control remaining, “there’s not much urgency” for Anthony Rizzo or the Cubs to explore a new contract, the first baseman told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times on Thursday. As you’d expect, however, the franchise icon hopes to ink a long-term pact with the Cubs sometime in the next couple years.

“I do want to stay here. I do want to be a Cub,” said Rizzo, who celebrated his 30th birthday Thursday.

Unlike most players, Rizzo landed a hefty contract toward the beginning of his career. Early in the 2013 season, just over a year after Chicago acquired Rizzo from San Diego in what became a steal of a trade, the Cubs locked him up to a seven-year, $41MM guarantee. Rizzo is in the last of those guaranteed seasons at the moment, but as of now, the Cubs are sure to exercise his $16.5MM options for each of the next two years. Thanks to the money he has collected (and will continue to collect) on his current deal, Rizzo told Wittenmyer he’s “set, financially,” which is an important reason he doesn’t feel the need to push for another payday yet.

Now in his eighth season with the Cubs, Rizzo’s enjoying yet another strong campaign, having slashed .284/.389/.511 with 21 home runs in 473 plate appearances. Since he first graced Chicago’s lineup, Rizzo has batted .275/.374/.494 with 211 HRs, 28.5 fWAR and three All-Star nods over 4,880 PA. He also helped the Cubs to an elusive world championship in 2016, and is generally regarded as one of the best people in baseball.

Rizzo’s near-spotless track record doesn’t mean the Cubs will pony up for him when the time comes, as plenty can change before his control expires. However, if he stays on his current track, Rizzo may have a case for a nine-figure contract soon. The archrival Cardinals handed fellow superstar first baseman Paul Goldschmidt a five-year, $130MM extension prior to this season, which could give Rizzo something to aim for. That accord won’t kick in until next year, Goldschmidt’s age-32 season.

While Goldschmidt has posted a better career than Rizzo in terms of individual numbers and awards, the latter hasn’t been that far below him since breaking out in 2014. Rizzo has actually been the superior player this year to Goldschmidt, who’s now amid the worst season of his career. Of course, if Goldschmidt’s unexpected slide continues, it could influence the Cubs to tread lightly on a bank-breaking Rizzo deal. Even though Rizzo has provided the Cubs immense on- and off-field value throughout his career, he acknowledged to Wittenmyer that “this is a business, and it’s as cutthroat as ever, right now especially – all sports, not just baseball.”

Checking In On Last Winter’s 5 Biggest Free Agent Hitter Contracts

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Last winter’s free-agent market was debated for years in advance. Its slow pace led to a long period of tension that has extended into early CBA negotiations. There was and is much at stake that goes beyond the bounds of the individual contracts that were negotiated. But those specific deals are also interesting and important standing alone — particularly those that involved significant, multi-year commitments.

We’ll take a look in at the thirteen players who signed for $30MM or more in total guaranteed money to see how those contracts look now that we’re more than two-thirds of the way through their first seasons. Here are the five position players who inked such deals:

Bryce Harper, OF, Phillies (13 years, $330MM): Harper has turned his back on those ugly defensive metrics from a year ago. So, that’s nice. Much less encouraging: Harper is back-sliding in plate discipline (26.3% K rate vs. 15.6% BB rate) and power (.215 ISO). He’s swinging and missing more than ever (14.7%). Notably, his contact rate on pitches in the strike zone has stayed below 80% in each of the past two seasons, a rather notable downturn given that he had previously registered in the mid-eighties. Statcast hints at some poor fortune (.355 wOBA vs. .374 xwOBA), and we might reasonably anticipate some movement back towards Harper’s career mean, but the overall results haven’t been terribly promising for a player who is owed a lot of money over an exceptionally lengthy period of time.

Manny Machado, 3B, Padres (10 years, $300MM): Like Harper, Machado owns a good but hardly overwhelming 117 wRC+. The Friars third bagger just hasn’t stung the ball quite as often as he did in the two prior seasons. And his strikeout rate sits at a career-high 20.2%. While Machado could end up setting a career high-water mark in long balls with 26 already in the bag (his prior his is 37), he hasn’t been quite as good at the plate as one might have hoped in year one of a decade-long commitment.

A.J. Pollock, OF, Dodgers (4 years, $55MM): Another round of elbow issues has limited Pollock and he’s carrying a league-average .257/.319/.444 batting line. That’s not great at first glance, but the situation is more promising when you look more closely. The elbow surgery he underwent may finally have put an end to his long-running series of issues in that joint. And he has raked since returning from the injured list. It’d be foolish to say that this contract is working out perfectly, but it’s far too soon to label it a bust.

Andrew McCutchen, OF, Phillies (3 years, $50MM): This one was off to such a promising start. Cutch was walking like a maniac while delivering solid pop to open the season, but went down with a devastating knee injury in his 59th game of action. He’ll have plenty of time to get ready for 2020, but the Phillies lost a big chunk of the anticipated early production from the signing and will have to wait to see whether the ACL repair will cost the venerable veteran some of his athleticism.

Michael Brantley, OF, Astros (2 years, $32MM): The last position player on this list has outperformed all the others. Brantley is maintaining his typically exceptional contact rates while hitting for more power than ever before (.192 ISO, 16 home runs in 467 plate appearances). He’s also receiving strong marks for his glovework. This deal is working out swimmingly for the ’Stros.

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We ought to give an honorable mention to the players who signed big one-year deals when they could have topped $30MM in a multi-year scenario. Josh Donaldson ($23MM) and Yasmani Grandal ($18.25MM) have each been excellent. (Ditto Nelson Cruz, though the long-in-the-tooth DH’s $14.3MM single-season salary suggests he didn’t quite have that level of earning power.)

Brian Matusz Attempting Comeback

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Until this summer, former major league left-hander Brian Matusz hadn’t pitched professionally since a 17 2/3-inning stint with the Diamondbacks’ Triple-A affiliate in 2017. Matusz is now attempting a comeback, though, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports. He joined Monclava of the Mexican League in July and has more recently caught on with the Long Island Ducks of the independent Atlantic League.

Matusz told Kubatko this week that he “needed a break” from baseball, but he’s back after “getting that itch to play again.”

The 32-year-old is best known for his time with the Orioles, who selected him fourth overall in the 2008 draft. Matusz ultimately topped out as Baseball America’s fifth-ranked prospect after the 2009 season, but he never lived up to the billing – at least not as a starter – with the Orioles. From his debut in 2009 through 2012, Matusz struggled to a 5.36 ERA/4.71 FIP with 7.34 K/9 and 3.47 BB/9 over 368 innings (86 appearances, 68 starts). However, he became a full-time reliever thereafter and wound up enjoying a trio of successful seasons.

In 151 2/3 innings from 2013-15, Matusz logged a 3.32 ERA/3.50 FIP and posted 9.44 K/9 against 3.15 BB/9. Unfortunately for Matusz, his career nosedived after that stretch. Matusz opened the 2016 campaign in rough fashion, which helped convince Baltimore to trade him to Atlanta in May, but the Braves designated him for assignment before he ever pitched for them. He then had a brief stint that season as a member of the Cubs, with whom he totaled three innings in the majors, before his fleeting run with Arizona’s top affiliate two years ago.

Tigers Select Edwin Jackson

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10:10pm: The Tigers have promoted Jackson and optioned lefty Blaine Hardy, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic tweets. They’ll still need to make a corresponding 40-man move to create a spot for Jackson.

9:15pm: The Tigers will select right-hander Edwin Jackson’s contract from Triple-A Toledo on Friday, Mud Hens manager Doug Mientkiewicz told Brian Buckey of the Toledo Blade. Jackson’s likely to start the Tigers’ game against the Royals, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com suggests.

The nomadic Jackson’s in line for his second major league stint with the Tigers, who signed him to a minors deal on July 22. He previously pitched for the Tigers in 2009. They’re one of a record 14 MLB teams the soon-to-be 36-year-old Jackson has suited up for since his career began with the Dodgers in 2003.

The year Jackson had with the Tigers a decade ago ranks as one of his most effective, as he pitched to a 3.62 ERA over 214 innings. The up-and-down Jackson remained a solid starter as recently as last year in Oakland, which he unexpectedly help pitch to the postseason with a 3.33 ERA across 92 frames after inking a minors pact. Despite that showing, though, Jackson was again unable to score a guaranteed contract last offseason. He ultimately went without a deal until rejoining the Athletics on a minors accord in mid-April, though he never made it back to the majors with the club.

After a short run as a member of the Athletics’ Triple-A team to open the season, they traded Jackson to the Blue Jays for cash considerations in early May. Jackson returned to the majors in Toronto, but he ended up posting horrific numbers – an 11.12 ERA/8.97 FIP in 28 1/3 innings – before the Jays cut the cord on him three weeks ago. He’ll now get to slot back into the rotation of another rebuilding team, Detroit, whose starting staff hasn’t received much production from anyone but Matthew Boyd, Spencer Turnbull and Daniel Norris.

Nelson Cruz Suffers Left Wrist Strain

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9:32pm: Cruz has once again suffered a left wrist strain, Hayes tweets. He’s day-to-day for now.

8:42pm: Twins designated hitter Nelson Cruz left the team’s crucial matchup against the AL Central rival Indians on Thursday with an apparent left wrist injury, Dan Hayes of The Athletic was among those to report. The Twins replaced Cruz with C.J. Cron.

Cruz’s departure is particularly notable because a strained left wrist forced him to the injured list earlier this season. The ageless slugger sat out from mid-May until early June because of the ailment, but the time off didn’t have a negative effect on him. On the contrary, Cruz has slashed a phenomenal .295/.385/.652 with 35 home runs in 372 plate appearances, making him one of the most valuable Twins and among the best free-agent signings of last winter.

Minnesota inked the 39-year-old Cruz to a $14MM guarantee in the offseason, and the team looks sure to exercise his $12MM club option for 2020. In the meantime, the Twins will continue trying to hold off the charging Indians, who entered Thursday’s contest two games behind. Of course, doing so will become all the more difficult if Cruz has to head back to the IL.

Mark Shapiro Discusses Blue Jays’ Trades, Rebuild, Spending

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Blue Jays president and CEO Mark Shapiro met with reporters today to discuss a variety of topics, including future plans on and off the field for the Jays.  Sportsnet.ca’s Ben Nicholson-Smith, TSN’s Scott Mitchell, and the Toronto Star’s Gregor Chisholm have some of the highlights, and you can view a video of some of Shapiro’s interview at Sportsnet.ca.

One of the chief points of discussion was criticism directed at Jays management from both fans and pundits in the wake of the perceived lackluster returns for Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez in respective deadline trades with the Mets and Astros.  Shapiro defended the work of GM Ross Atkins and the front office as a whole, saying “they’ve positioned the team extremely well, regardless of what happens, for the future,” and cited several recent high-profile deals that ended up with unexpected benefits for the teams involved.

“It’s the nature of both media and fans to want to judge trades in the short term….Trades take a while to ultimately evaluate,” Shapiro said.  “If you’re evaluating them on a small amount of information and a small set if data, they can feel unpopular in the moment and you have to be more confident of the group of people and the information that led to that decision.”

Beyond the rebuilding plans, however, Shapiro himself is well aware that “winning…is the only thing that will satisfy people,” as the Jays are well into their third season of non-competitive baseball.

“I’m aware of the frustration because I share the frustration.  Any time you’re not winning, there is anger, there’s frustration and there’s disappointment,” Shapiro said.  “If you don’t feel bitter about anything other than a winning and a championship-caliber team, then you’re in the wrong line of work….We’ve listened to our fans, we’ve made tons of changes to the products that we supply and what we’re doing around the ballpark, the times of games, and the deals we offer, so we’re always listening to our fans.  But ultimately, the only thing that really is going to make the bulk of our fans happy is winning games.”

This doesn’t necessarily indicate that the Blue Jays’ rebuild is coming to an end, as Shapiro said that the team will look to be “opportunistic” in their offseason expenditures since, in his opinion, “it’s not a great off-season for free-agent talent.”  That said, “the bulk” of winter resources will be spent on adding pitching, since Toronto already seems to have a young and talented core (i.e. Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.) in place.  “We will certainly have to and will supplement that internal group of players, [and] look to do it as soon as this off-season,” Shapiro said.

The Jays have just under $30.93MM in committed payroll next season, with almost half of those funds dedicated to retired shortstop Troy Tulowitzki.  While there’s plenty of room to spend, major splashes don’t seem to be in the offing until the Blue Jays have proven themselves to be a bit closer to contending in the AL East.  Past comments from Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins indicated that 2021 could be the target year for when the Jays turn from retooling to pushing for a postseason berth, though Shapiro hesitated to put any type of “limits on the pace or deadlines” of the process.

“So a player who’s a three-win player who takes you from 82 to 85 wins probably doesn’t move that needle. But if you’re at 87 wins and it takes you from 87 to 90, does that make sense?” Shapiro asked rhetorically.  “So it’s more like when we’re at that point, when you can get the player who helps take you from a good team to a team that’s a potential championship team, we need to go out and get that player, and that [ownership] support will be there.”

One potential bit of spending with long-term repercussions could be extensions for the young core players, and while though Shapiro said those types of talks usually don’t happen until later in the offseason or during Spring Training, “those will be conversations we’d certainly have.”

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