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Archives for August 2019

The Kelvin Herrera Signing Hasn’t Gone The White Sox’s Way

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At times since he debuted in the majors in 2011, right-hander Kelvin Herrera has been one of the majors’ most dominant relievers. Between 2012 and ’16, for instance, Herrera pitched to a sterling 2.57 ERA/2.96 FIP with 9.14 K/9, 2.69 BB/9 and a 48.7 percent groundball rate over 354 1/3 innings. He averaged a whopping 98.0 mph on his four-seam fastball along the way, and was a key reason why the Royals took home a World Series championship in 2015. That fall, Herrera turned in 13 2/3 innings of two-run ball (one earned) and totaled 22 strikeouts against three walks. Herrera hasn’t been the same caliber of pitcher over the past couple years, however, and is now struggling through the worst season of his career.

Things began going downhill for Herrera in 2017, his last full season as a Royal, and continued to spiral last year in a campaign divided between Kansas City and Washington. Herrera still notched an outstanding 2.44 ERA and barely walked more than two batters per nine over 44 1/3 innings, but his 7.71 K/9, 35.6 percent groundball rate, 3.95 FIP, 4.31 xFIP and 3.81 SIERA ranked among the least impressive figures during his time in the pros. Making matters worse, Herrera suffered a season-ending Lisfranc injury in his left foot in late August.

Although 2018 concluded in unfavorable fashion for Herrera, that didn’t stop the 29-year-old from landing a solid payday in free agency last winter. The rebuilding White Sox, familiar with the hurler from his run with the division-rival Royals, committed two years and $18MM to Herrera.

Unfortunately for Chicago, the Herrera contract has looked like a mistake to this point. Through 34 1/3 innings with the ChiSox, Herrera has limped to a 7.08 ERA. Only two relievers who have accrued 30-plus innings (David Hernandez, whom the Reds just released, and the Orioles’ Branden Kline) have had more trouble preventing runs than Herrera, whose average fastball velocity (95.8 mph) sits as the least imposing of his career. Unsurprisingly, a drop in swinging-strike rate – 10.8 percent, the worst of Herrera’s majors tenure – has accompanied his dip in velocity. At the same time, with 4.19 walks per nine, Herrera has issued more free passes than ever.

Herrera’s new status as one of the game’s least effective relievers has come with a change in repertoire. According to Statcast, after throwing his four-seamer anywhere from 40 to 60 percent in previous seasons, he’s down to 32.8 percent this year. Hitters have tattooed the pitch, though, with a .483 weighted on-base average/.421 xwOBA. They’ve also had plenty of success against his sinker (21.9 percent; .432 wOBA/.364 xwOBA) and cutter (10.3 percent; .375/.391). Conversely, Herrera’s non-fastballs – his changeup (21.5 percent; .218/.225) and slider (13.6 percent; .202/.220) – have stymied the opposition. Perhaps he’d be well-served to rely more on those offerings.

Regardless of pitch choice, it does seem Herrera has encountered a bit of bad luck this season. His fielding-independent pitching marks, including a 4.73 FIP, are all much more respectable than his ERA (although hardly great). Hitters have also victimized Herrera for an unsustainable .378 batting average on balls in play, which sits well above his career .292 mark and has come in spite of a low average exit velocity. Herrera’s mean exit velo against (85.8 mph) ranks as his best in the Statcast era and falls in the top 7 percent of the league. The .339 xwOBA Herrera has yielded is still unimpressive, but it looks far better than the .370 real wOBA hitters have mustered off him. Meanwhile, Herrera has only stranded 63.2 percent of runners – down from a lifetime mark of 77.7.

Herrera and the White Sox will, of course, hope fortune starts going in his favor over the next year-plus. As of now, though, this doesn’t have the makings of a successful signing for the club, which committed much more money to Herrera than any other free agent last offseason. If Herrera does bounce back in 2020, though, it could go a long way toward helping the White Sox snap a painfully long playoff drought that’s sure to hit 11 seasons this year.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Pirates Release Tyler Lyons

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The Pirates released left-hander Tyler Lyons from their Triple-A club over the weekend, as first indicated on the Triple-A International League transactions log.

Lyons, 30, was briefly with the Pirates’ big league club earlier this season after having his contract selected from Triple-A Indianapolis, but he lasted just five days on the Major League roster before being designated for assignment. The former Cardinals reliever has enjoyed a strong season with the Bucs’ top minor league affiliate, though, pitching to a 3.55 ERA with 10.8 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 0.79 HR/9 and a 39.8 percent ground-ball rate in 45 2/3 innings. Between those 45 2/3 innings and another four in the Majors, Lyons has limited opposing lefties to an awful .141/.205/.282 batting line. Right-handers have give him trouble, though, hitting him at a .278/.361/.444 clip.

It wasn’t that long ago that Lyons was a solid member of the bullpen with the division-rival Cardinals. From 2015-17, he totaled 162 innings with a 3.33 ERA and a 174-to-49 K/BB ratio (9.7 K/9, 2.7 BB/9). That strong three-year run was highlighted by a 2017 campaign in which Lyons logged a 2.83 ERA and a near-identical 2.86 FIP to go along with a career-best 30.9 percent strikeout rate (11.33 K/9).

Back and elbow issues hampered Lyons early in the 2018 season, and the Cardinals somewhat surprisingly jettisoned him in the midst of a summer bullpen shakeup that July. Lyons ultimately went unclaimed on waivers, though, and had to settle for a minor league deal this past offseason despite a respectable showing in Triple-A Memphis following that DFA. He’s now thrown just 20 MLB innings since that standout 2017 campaign, but clubs in need of some left-handed bullpen depth could certainly do worse than to take a flier on Lyons based on his track record and solid Triple-A numbers over the past two seasons.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Rick Porcello

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Relative to expectations, the 2019 season has been a major disappointment for the Red Sox. Many teams would be satisfied with Boston’s 64-59 record, but after winning 108 regular-season games and a World Series in 2018, what the club has done in the first four-plus months of this year looks rather underwhelming. The unspectacular performance of right-hander Rick Porcello is among the many reasons the Red Sox have fallen short of expectations this season.

Porcello wasn’t great last year during the Red Sox’s latest run to a championship, but he gave the team 33 starts and 191 1/3 innings of 4.28 ERA/4.01 FIP pitching. That was a valuable complementary effort to the better output Chris Sale and David Price put forth. This season, though, Porcello has logged a far worse 5.67 ERA/4.92 FIP across 133 1/3 frames. He ranks dead last among 69 qualified starters in ERA and sixth from the bottom in FIP. It’s an unexpected fall from grace for someone who won the American League Cy Young Award in 2016, when Porcello posted a 3.15 ERA/3.40 FIP in 223 innings.

The fact that the 30-year-old Porcello’s just a couple months from his first-ever trip to free agency makes his subpar season all the more inopportune. Luckily for Porcello, he has already received one significant payday in his career. Back in April 2015, just months after they acquired him in a trade with the Tigers that also included outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, the Red Sox signed Porcello to a four-year, $82.5MM extension. Porcello was a decent mid- to back-of-the-rotation innings eater at that point, which – Cy Young season aside – has largely been the case in Boston.

This year has been the worst as a member of the Red Sox for Porcello, who hasn’t just seen his run prevention numbers go backward. Porcello has also struck out just 7.22 batters per nine, which is down from a personal-best 8.94 a year ago and sits 14th from the bottom among qualified starters. Meanwhile, although Porcello’s 2.43 walks per nine certainly isn’t bad, it’s the highest of his career. His K/BB ratio (2.97) is superior to just 24 other starters’. Porcello’s groundball rate (38.9) stands as a career worst, too, and pales in comparison to the 50 percent-plus marks he consistently recorded as a Tiger.

Beyond those numbers, Statcast doesn’t think much of what Porcello has done this season. It ranks him toward the bottom of the majors in expected slugging percentage against (.475; 15th percentile), fastball velocity (91.1 mph; 16th percentile), expected weighted on-base average (.332, compared to a .346 wOBA; 32nd percentile), expected batting average (.256; 36th percentile) and hard-hit percentage (46th percentile).

It’s clear there hasn’t been a lot to like this season about Porcello, who will nonetheless try to find a sizable deal in free agency a few months from now. He’ll definitely fall behind Gerrit Cole, Madison Bumgarner, Cole Hamels, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Zack Wheeler, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson and Dallas Keuchel (perhaps among others) in the open market pecking order, while there are several other starters in a similar class to Porcello who could negatively affect his earning power. A short-term contract (one or two years) seems like a strong possibility for Porcello, who’s likely to struggle to reach eight figures on his next pact. That obviously isn’t what Porcello had in mind when he earned the AL’s top pitcher honors just three years ago.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Blake Swihart Clears Waivers, Accepts Outright Assignment

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Catcher/outfielder Blake Swihart went unclaimed on waivers after being designated for assignment by the Diamondbacks and accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Reno, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports (via Twitter).

Swihart, 27, has enough service time that he could’ve rejected the assignment, but doing so would’ve meant forfeiting the remainder of this season’s $910K big league salary. He’ll now remain with the Diamondbacks through season’s end, but he’ll quite likely elect free agency this offseason, as is his right as a player with three-plus years of service who has been outrighted off the 40-man roster.

It wasn’t long ago that Swihart was widely considered to be among the game’s elite prospects. Prior to the 2015 season, each of MLB.com, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and ESPN ranked him among the game’s top 20 overall farmhands — hardly a surprise given his status as a former first-round pick who hit .293/.341/.469 in 110 games between Double-A and Triple-A as a 22-year-old in 2014.

Swihart’s bat didn’t impress much in his 2015 MLB debut, however, as he batted just .274/.319/.392 through 309 trips to the plate. More concerning, though, were the escalating questions about his defensive abilities (or lack thereof) behind the dish. The Red Sox organization began playing Swihart in left field and at first base, but he continued to work with coaches and instructors to hone his defensive chops at catcher.

Unfortunately, those concerns never really dissipated, and his sparse use in 2018 surely didn’t help matters. The Red Sox were loath to lose Swihart, who was at that point out of minor league options, but they were also reluctant to commit to him as a regular catching option. As such, Boston carried both Christian Vazquez and light-hitting Sandy Leon to open the 2018 campaign, relegating Swihart to a seldom-used third catcher and infielder/outfielder. Swihart received virtually no playing time early in the season and had tallied fewer than 100 plate appearances by the time the All-Star break rolled around. That the Red Sox effectively played the 2018 season with a 24-man roster makes last year’s World Series win all the more impressive, but Swihart’s nonexistent role surely didn’t do him any favors.

With Arizona, Swihart was used exclusively as a corner outfielder and first baseman, tallying just 70 trips to the plate over the life of 31 games in a similarly minimal role. The fact that he went unclaimed on waivers when he’s earning less than $1MM and could’ve been controlled through the 2022 season via arbitration doesn’t bode well for his chances of landing a big league contract this winter. For now, though, he’ll try to open some eyes at Triple-A in an effort to work his way back onto the Diamondbacks’ 40-man roster before season’s end.

Mets To Release Adeiny Hechavarria

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Aug. 14: The Mets placed Hechavarria on release waivers today, tweets MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo. He’ll be a free agent once he clears in 48 hours.

Aug. 9: The Mets have designated infielder Adeiny Hechavarria for assignment to make room for newly signed second baseman Joe Panik, the team announced.

The 30-year-old Hechavarria joined the Mets on a minor league contract last offseason. There hasn’t actually been a huge difference between him and Panik this year. Hechavarria has slashed .204/.252/.359 (62 wRC+) with minus-0.2 fWAR in 151 plate appearances. Panik has batted .235/.310/.317 (69 wRC+) with minus-0.2 fWAR in 388 PA. Nevertheless, the Mets will go with Panik, leaving the defensively gifted Hechavarria hoping he catches on with another franchise.

Hechavarria has played second base, shortstop and third base with the Mets this season but is best known for his quality glovework at shortstop. He’s never been much of a threat at the plate, as can be seen with a glance at his .252/.288/.346 career batting line, but he could be a versatile bench addition for a club looking to upgrade its infield defense.

Phillies Select Logan Morrison

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4:26pm: Morrison’s contract has indeed been selected, per a club announcement. He’ll fill the 25-man roster spot that was vacated with Jake Arrieta landing on the 10-day IL with what looks to be a season-ending elbow issue. Righty Jerad Eickhoff was moved to the 60-day injured list to open a 40-man roster spot for Morrison.

1:33pm: The Phillies will select the contract of veteran first baseman Logan Morrison from Triple-A Lehigh Valley today, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (via Twitter). He’ll join the roster a day after fellow lefty slugger Corey Dickerson exited the game with an apparent hand injury after being hit by a pitch from Jose Quintana.

The 31-year-old Morrison had an awful season in 2018 when he tried to play through a hip injury with the Twins. That issue, initially believed to be an impingement, wound up being far more severe, as season-ending surgery also revealed a torn labrum in Morrison’s hip. Morrison still managed to swat 15 home runs with the Twins in 359 plate appearances last year, but his overall .186/.276/.368 batting line was obviously an eyesore.

Morrison inked a minor league deal with the Yankees earlier this summer once he was sufficiently recovered from that procedure, but he didn’t make it to the big leagues in the Bronx despite laying waste to Triple-A pitching in Scranton. He then signed on with the Phillies and hasn’t missed a beat in Triple-A. In fact, he’s been even better with the Phillies’ top affiliate. Overall, in a combined 233 Triple-A plate appearances, Morrison has ripped 18 home runs and 16 doubles while putting together a superlative .308/.369/.640 batting line. Even in a league-wide, supercharged offensive environment in Triple-A this season, Morrison’s bat has been more than 50 percent better than that off an average hitter (by measure of wRC+).

With the Phils, Morrison will look to sweep last year’s woeful ratios under the rug and bounce back to the 2017 form that saw him hit .246/.353/.516 with a career-high 38 home runs as a member of the Rays.

Jameson Taillon Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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The Pirates announced today that right-hander Jameson Taillon underwent his second career Tommy John surgery. Taillon had been slated for surgery to repair his right flexor tendon, which was initially expected to sideline him for seven to nine months. However, according to the Pirates, it was determined during the course of that procedure that he required a UCL revision in his right elbow. Taillon is expected to miss the entire 2020 season and return to competition in 2021.

It’s a brutal loss for the Pirates, who just a couple of months ago were hoping that Taillon would be able to return at some point in 2019. Now, they’ll be without their best pitcher not only for this season but the entire 2020 campaign as well. That’ll leave the Buccos with a rotation mix comprised of Joe Musgrove, Chris Archer, Trevor Williams, Steven Brault and well-regarded prospect Mitch Keller. Pittsburgh also hopes to have Chad Kuhl back in 2020, when he’s recovered from his own Tommy John surgery, and other options are present on the 40-man roster in the form of Dario Agrazal, JT Brubaker, Yefry Ramirez and Rookie Davis. Still, it’s a largely non-established group that could well be in need of offseason augmentation.

Taillon, 27, was the No. 2 overall draft pick back in 2010 and long rated as one of baseball’s elite prospects. Injuries, headlined by a prior Tommy John surgery and a frightening battle with testicular cancer, stalled his development and delayed his path to the big leagues. However, upon arrival, Taillon quickly demonstrated why he’d received such lofty fanfare, and in 2018 looked to have cemented himself as a front-of-the-rotation piece in Pittsburgh. After a pair of solid seasons to begin his career in 2016-17, Taillon broke out in 2018 with 191 innings of 3.20 ERA ball. Along the way, he averaged 7.2 strikeouts, 1.9 walks and 0.96 homers per nine innings pitched to go along with a grounder rate just a hair under 50 percent.

Taillon will be eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter and figures to receive a relatively small raise given that injuries limited him to 37 1/3 innings of 4.10 ERA ball in 2019. Whatever price he and the Pirates agree on will quite likely be his salary in 2021 as well, given that it’s common for arbitration-eligible players who miss an entire season due to injury to simply re-sign at the same rate. Taillon will get a bump into seven figures to reflect the contributions he’s made in his career to date, but the potential $4.5-6MM salary he might’ve received with a healthy 2019 campaign now looks firmly out of the question.

The Pittsburgh front office will have a tall order when it comes to replacing the value lost with a full season of Taillon. While the roster has several rotation alternatives, there are few, if any, with Taillon’s ceiling among them. (Keller, perhaps, stands out as a notable exception.) The worst-case scenario in the rotation comes at a time when other members of the lineup — namely Josh Bell and breakout rookie Bryan Reynolds — have stepped into the spotlight and given the Pirates hope that each can be a core piece around which to build. Now, with new core assets emerging, Pittsburgh will see one of its most crucial core members fade from the picture for the foreseeable future.

Jake Arrieta’s Season Likely Over

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The Phillies have placed right-hander Jake Arrieta on the 10-day injured list, and Arrieta himself told reporters today that his season is likely over (Twitter link via Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune). “I’ll probably miss the remainder of the season,” said Arrieta, who is slated to undergo an MRI on Thursday.

The elbow troubles that are sidelining Arrieta aren’t a new revelation. Early in July, it was announced by the Phils that Arrieta was pitching through bone spurs in his elbow that would require eventual surgery. Arrieta has continued to pitch through the discomfort, though it seems as though he’s now reached a tipping point. Right-hander Zach Eflin, who was recently dropped to the bullpen, will return to the rotation to start in place of Arrieta on Saturday, tweets Scott Lauber of Philly.com.

It’s been a rather middling season for Arrieta, 33, as he’s pitched to a 4.64 ERA with 7.3 K/9, 3.4 BB/9 and 1.4 HR/9 through 24 starts — a total of 135 1/3 innings. Arrieta carried a 3.96 ERA through Memorial Day, but the summer hasn’t been kind to him as he’s pitched through those injuries; over his past 65 2/3 frames, he’s stumbled to a 5.76 ERA with a 51-to-25 K/BB ratio, four hit batters and a dozen home runs allowed.

Arrieta is in the second season of a three-year, $75MM contract that contains an opt-out clause after the 2019 season. Given the current injury and his summer struggles, that opt-out seems decidedly unlikely to be exercised, meaning he’ll remain under contract in Philadelphia through the 2020 season, when he’s slated to earn $20MM. The Phillies also hold a two-year, $40MM club option on Arrieta that they’ll surely forgo in light of his current health and recent struggles.

With Arrieta headed to the shelf for what looks to be the duration of the year, the Phillies will lean on Aaron Nola, Eflin, Vince Velasquez and a pair of recent newcomers — Drew Smyly and Jason Vargas — to round out the rotation for now. Both Smyly and Vargas have given the Phillies a pair of strong outings, though Smyly’s two most recent turns haven’t been as sharp. The Phillies have fallen to nine games out of the division lead in the NL East but are still just two games out of an NL Wild Card spot.

Giants Put Sandoval On IL, Activate Dickerson

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2:20pm: The Giants announced that Sandoval has indeed been placed on the injured list due to elbow inflammation. Outfielder Alex Dickerson has been reinstated from the IL in a corresponding roster move, although Dickerson is not in today’s lineup.

1:07pm: Giants third baseman Pablo Sandoval says that he expects to be placed on the 10-day injured list, as John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle was among those to cover (Twitter links). Sandoval is dealing with bone chips in his right elbow.

It seems that Sandoval has already attempted a cortisone shot, without sufficient effect. The malady has limited him when throwing and hitting from the right side of the plate.

It’s not clear at this point how much time the Panda might miss. He indicated that he’s hopeful of making it back to the active roster, even if he’s limited to hitting from the left side of the plate, though it seems a timeline won’t become clear until he has had some time to rest.

Sandoval, who recently turned 33, narrowly made the Giants roster out of camp but has turned out to be a key cog. He has accumulated 295 plate appearances of .269/.314/.509 hitting with 14 home runs — a vintage performance for a player who was once a quality regular. Sandoval will return to the open market at season’s end.

Orioles Designate Jimmy Yacabonis For Assignment

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The Orioles announced this afternoon that they’ve designated right-hander Jimmy Yacabonis for assignment. His spot on the roster will go to fellow righty Ryan Eades, whose previously reported waiver claim out of the Twins organization has now been formally announced by the Orioles.

Yacabonis, 27, has struggled substantially in the Majors despite solid, if unremarkable results in the upper minors. He’s in the midst of his final season with minor league options, so the Orioles seemingly value the flexibility that Eades brings to the table over a righty who has received numerous auditions in recent seasons.

Dating back to his 2017 MLB debut, Yacabonis has pitched 101 2/3 innings for the Orioles, mostly as a reliever or opener. In that time he’s turned in a 5.75 ERA while averaging 6.6 strikeouts, 5.0 walks and 1.68 home runs per nine innings pitched. Yacabonis’ heater has averaged 94 mph with slightly above-average spin in that time, but he’s given up far too much hard contact and struggled both throwing strikes and commanding the ball within the zone. He’ll be made available to the other 29 teams in the league via outright waivers in the coming days., though if he clears, the Orioles will be able to retain him and assign him to a minor league affiliate without dedicating a 40-man roster spot to him.

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