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Archives for July 2019

Ivan Nova: Trade Candidate?

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This has been a season to forget for veteran right-hander Ivan Nova, whom the White Sox acquired from the Pirates last winter to competently soak up innings. It wasn’t an unreasonable expectation on Chicago’s part that Nova would provide its rotation with some much-needed stability. After all, Nova was coming off three straight seasons in which he amassed 160-plus frames and recorded an ERA in the low fours. That type of production would’ve been welcome for this year’s White Sox, who have gotten very little from any starter except Lucas Giolito. That includes the 32-year-old Nova, their leader in starts (21) and innings (119 2/3).

Even after firing a one-run complete game against the Marlins on Monday, Nova has only managed a 5.49 ERA/5.34 FIP this season. And yet, despite the immense difficulties Nova has encountered in 2019, he seems to be garnering interest from elsewhere with the trade deadline a week away. “Many scouts” have been “looking at” the struggling Nova, according to Joe Frisaro of MLB.com, while Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times also identifies him as a potential trade chip.

When it comes to starters, pitchers the caliber of Madison Bumgarner, Trevor Bauer and Marcus Stroman tend to monopolize the headlines at this time of year. Back-end innings eaters do have value to teams pushing for playoff spots, though, which could make Nova movable for the White Sox. The problem is that the 2019 version of Nova hasn’t fit the bill.  Even looking past Nova’s shoddy run prevention, there isn’t much to like aside from a low walk rate (2.33 BB/9) and a solid groundball percentage (47.0). His home run-to-fly ball rate, 19.5, ranks fifth worst among 75 qualified starters. His strikeout rate, 5.79 per nine, sits third from the bottom. Furthermore, just 14 starters have posted a worse swinging-strike rate (9.0 percent).

Statcast doesn’t care for the Chicago iteration of Nova, either. In fact, he doesn’t check in any better than the majors’ 37th percentile in mean fastball velocity (92.3 mph), strikeout percentage, exit velocity, hard-hit rate against, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage or expected weighted on-base average. While Nova’s .357 xwOBA is better than the J.D. Martinez-esque .370 real wOBA that hitters have pummeled him for, it’s not by much.

Based on what Nova has done this year, the soon-to-be free agent doesn’t appear capable of boosting anyone’s rotation down the stretch. But could he aid a team in a relief role? It doesn’t look like it. Batters have smacked Nova for a .361 wOBA the first time through the order, with righties (.367) and lefties (.365) abusing him to near-matching degrees. Nova also isn’t cheap – he’s making $8.5MM, roughly $3MM of which is still on the way – so Chicago will likely have to eat most or all of his salary to have any hope of dealing him. Even if the White Sox do that, they may have trouble finding a taker.

Latest On Braves’ Jacob Webb

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Atlanta’s bullpen is one of the few legitimate areas of concern for the first-place club as the July 31 trade deadline approaches. The Braves, cognizant they’re in need of upgrades, have been connected to Blue Jays closer Ken Giles, Orioles right-hander Mychal Givens and multiple White Sox relievers on the rumor mill in recent days, and there are likely more late-game arms on the team’s radar.

The Braves are in search of help because they haven’t gotten nearly enough from the majority of their current options. Of their healthy arms, only Luke Jackson, Anthony Swarzak and Sean Newcomb have posted high-quality numbers over at least 20 innings of work apiece. Right-hander Jacob Webb has also been eminently productive, having notched a tremendous 1.39 ERA through 32 1/3 frames, but the 25-year-old rookie hasn’t been a factor in recent weeks. Webb has totaled a mere three innings this month and hasn’t pitched since July 12 on account of an elbow impingement, and it doesn’t appear he’ll return to the Braves’ bullpen in the immediate future. Manager Brian Snitker indicated Wednesday that Webb’s set to miss “at least a couple more weeks,” Mark Bowman of MLB.com writes.

The latest news on Webb could further galvanize the Braves to bolster their bullpen in the next week. However, they’d have likely tried to do so even had he stayed healthy. The Braves are atop the NL East East at 60-43, meaning they don’t have to pick up anyone, but their lead has dwindled to 4 1/2 over the Nationals – whom they play 10 more times. Three of those games will take place next week, but the Braves won’t have Webb available for any of them.

Depending on the stats you look at, Webb may have been either supremely lucky or just flat-out excellent prior to landing on the IL. ERA indicators FIP (4.31), xFIP (5.14) and SIERA (4.54) suggest Webb has no business sporting such a pristine ERA, and his strikeout, walk and groundball rates (7.79 K/9, 3.34 BB/9, 38.2 GB%) also paint a somewhat gloomy picture.

On the other hand, the hard-throwing Webb has been a wiz at preventing meaningful contact this season. Among 168 relievers who have thrown at least 30 innings, Webb checks in at 17th in infield fly percentage (17.5). He also ranks near the top of the league in several Statcast categories, including expected weighted on-base average against. Hitters have mustered a weak .287 wOBA off Webb, which aligns with an even better .281 xwOBA. Webb’s first among Braves relievers in the former category, while only Jackson has outdone him in the latter.

Yankees Have Interest In Mike Minor

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WEDNESDAY: New York’s “not very involved” in the Minor derby, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets.

MONDAY: As they continue to weigh a variety of possible pitching additions, the Yankees are taking a look at Rangers lefty Mike Minor, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). But that interest comes with a few complications.

The Yanks are one of ten teams to which Minor can block a swap pursuant to his contract, per Rosenthal. Minor’s willingness to waive his rights isn’t known, but he certainly doesn’t sound particularly anxious to leave town.

Minor’s continued strong work makes his contract rights quite appealing. He’s earning just $9.5MM this year and next, making the 31-year-old a cost-efficient target. Pinching pennies isn’t strictly necessary for the Yankees, but the organization is as aware of value concepts as any and has an obvious desire to avoid unnecessary luxury tax complications (now and in the future).

It’s not surprising, then, that the Bronx Bombers have sent notable front-office member Tim Naehring out to see Minor’s past two outings. That could be interpreted as a tell, though Rosenthal rightly points out that Naehring and the team’s other trusted evaluators have also put in plenty of time watching other arms as well.

It is still tough to guess just what direction the Yankees will take. If Luis Severino is able to make it back, even if not in a full-blown starter’s capacity, the club will have enviable depth with James Paxton and Domingo German featuring as capable postseason starters and a variety of other multi-inning hurlers on hand. It could certainly stand to add a marquee arm to front the staff, but it’s fair to wonder if that’s really what Minor is. There’s unquestionably a rotation need in 2020 as well, but perhaps that shouldn’t be the priority right now. The price for Minor will be steep — in addition to other demand, the Rangers will value his rights for next season — and there is an argument to be made that the Yanks ought instead to utilize their resources on other targets, either posting less in prospect value for a rental hurler or somehow concocting a bigger move for a truly top-shelf starter.

Matt Klentak On Phillies’ Deadline Approach

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Phillies GM Matt Klentak discussed the organizational mindset as the trade deadline draws near, as Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reports. He largely echoed the recent comments of club president Andy MacPhail in emphasizing a realistic assessment of the team’s chances.

It seems notable, then, that the outlook is generally becoming sunnier in Philadelphia. The Phils have picked up their play since we examined whether a win-now deadline strategy was advisable for the organization, taking five of their last six games. That doesn’t mean they’re a strong favorite for the division, but the Wild Card is firmly in play and there would seem to be added impetus for notable deadline acquisitions — particularly if the club takes advantage of a weekend series in Atlanta.

Klentak says that the club must “recognize where we are and we have to make moves that are appropriate” to the place in the standings. While the team’s “core players” will dictate the outcome through their performance, says Klentak, the front office is “legitimately looking for opportunities” to buttress the existing roster.

While these comments convey a sense of sober analysis — a notable change from the club’s memorable, unofficial offseason slogan — they surely don’t preclude significant moves. “I feel like our organization has enough talent that we can bid on the top names on the market,” says Klentak, though he adds that “whether we choose to go down that road or not remains to be seen.”

Like any team, the Phillies are looking to strike a balance. Like MacPhail, Klentak evinced an aversion to parting with valuable prospect capital. While that’s obviously always going to be necessary to some degree for a contending team, Klentak says it’s an organizational imperative “to preserve young talent” and avoid the need “to tackle another rebuild at some point” — which, he says, is “not something that our owners or our front office have an appetite for.”

It very nearly goes without saying that all of this reasoning seems to have the big-budget Phillies pointed toward opportunities to improve by means of the bank vault, rather than the farm. There is, however, a point at which the organization will need to watch its payroll as well. The club is already committed to over $110MM next year and more than $90MM in the ensuing season, all before accounting for arbitration spending, extensions, or new acquisitions. Adding to this year’s payroll, which opened at about $140MM, is also a possibility, though teams carrying high-cost players have already ponied up most of what’s due.

Klentak didn’t get into areas of need, but as Salisbury notes, there are quite a few. There’s clearly room to add multiple hurlers and it’s not hard at all to imagine new bats slotting into the infield and/or outfield mix. In some ways, the variety and degree of the places for improvement should help the Phillies find value at the deadline — particularly in the rental market. And it’s worth remembering that the team can look to the near future as a means of justifying new acquisitions. Adding a controllable player or two that fits the 2020 roster would not just improve the team now but help account for openings that will ultimately need to be filled somehow, if not by an offseason trade then by a free-agent move that comes with the possibility of long-term salary entanglements.

Interest In Nomar Mazara Reportedly “Picking Up”

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There was considerable hype surrounding outfielder Nomar Mazara when the Rangers promoted him to the majors in 2016. Mazara was one of baseball’s elite prospects at the time, but three-plus years later, he hasn’t lived up to the billing. While Mazara is now seemingly falling out of favor with the Texas organization, he remains intriguing to other franchises. With the July 31 trade deadline just a week away, interest in Mazara “is picking up,” specifically from teams that could be contenders in 2020, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes.

Although Mazara’s well into his major league career, he’s still just 24 years old. He’s also making a fair $3.3MM salary now and under control through 2021 via arbitration. That’s the good. The bad: Mazara’s more a big name than a big producer at this point.

Mazara smacked 20 home runs in each of the previous three seasons and has totaled 12 this year, but his overall numbers are lackluster. Mazara entered the year a .258/.320/.425 hitter with a subpar 92 wRC+ and just 1.5 fWAR across 1,720 plate appearances. His output this season has been even worse. Through 381 trips to the plate, Mazara has slashed .255/.307/.438 (86 wRC+) and accounted for a replacement-level fWAR (0.0). Southpaws flummoxed the left-handed Mazara during the prior three seasons, which has again been the case in 2019. They’ve held him to a horrific .200/.231/.345 line with 30 strikeouts against four walks thus far.

Not only has Mazara come up short in the batter’s box, but he has left something to be desired as a defender. In almost 4,000 innings of work as an outfielder, Mazara has totaled minus-20 Defensive Runs Saved, though his minus-2.3 Ultimate Zone Rating hasn’t been nearly as woeful. He’s at minus-5 and minus-1.9 in those categories this season, adding a more respectable minus-1 in Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric.

Statcast is also more bullish on Mazara as a hitter. For one, Mazara’s .340 expected weighted on-base average far outpaces his .314 real wOBA. He also ranks either a bit or well above average in hard-hit percentage, expected batting average and expected slugging percentage. But that may not be of much consolation to the Rangers, who have time and again seen Mazara fail to meet expectations over the years. And now that the slumping Rangers are falling out of playoff contention, they could deem Mazara expendable in the coming days.

Tigers Interested In Packaging Trade Chips

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As they continue to explore various trade scenarios regarding their most appealing veteran players, the Tigers are attempting to package multiple trade chips, according to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. It’s part of a bid to draw top-end prospect talent to Detroit this summer.

The concept of a package deal isn’t a new one. On occasion, it’s even pulled off — such as with this memorable swap we recently looked back on — though most such ideas tend to end up on the cutting-room floor.

In this case, the Detroit organization has three chief attractions to dangle. Outfielder Nicholas Castellanos is the most obvious trade piece as a pending free agent, but he’s not going to draw a franchise-altering return on his own. Reliever Shane Greene has thrown well at the right time and has another season of control remaining, though rivals surely value him somewhere in the realm of the mid-point between this year’s 1.22 ERA and last year’s 5.12 mark.

Much as the Tigers might like to turn Castellanos and Greene into a significant prospect haul, they’re likely aware that even two quality MLB pieces such as those won’t induce hesitant contenders to part with premium prospects. With the purpose in mind “to access the highest tier of available prospects,” as Morosi characterizes it, the Tigers are at least opening the door to package arrangements involving the third and most valuable major trade chip: starter Matthew Boyd.

In this day and age, it’s as hard as ever to pry top prospects free via trade. But controllable, high-quality starting pitching is an increasingly rare asset in its own right. The Tigers’ best hope of getting big-time new talent is surely to line something up for Boyd and his three remaining seasons of arbitration control. While the southpaw hasn’t quite maintained his hot start in terms of results, he can shoulder a workload and carries appealing peripherals (including a 14.0% swinging-strike rate).

Boyd is the sort of pitcher that might get a contender to pay a price it’d rather not, though his breakout is still fresh and there are surely questions as to its sustainability. Adding in another much-needed piece could help move the ball, no doubt, but it’s questionable whether the Tigers’ other top trade chips are valuable enough secondary pieces to do so. There’s an argument to be made that Castellanos is the top rental bat available as a young and established slugger, but he’s not particularly cheap and there are alternatives. Greene seems likelier to tip the scales as a late-inning reliever with another season of control, but he’s going to be due a big raise (from his $4MM current salary) and has a rather uneven overall track record.

Latest On Interest In Mets’ Pitchers

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Most reports out of New York over the past few weeks have echoed a familiar trio of names when assessing their trade chips: Zack Wheeler, Todd Frazier and Jason Vargas. The three are free agents at season’s end — Vargas does have an $8MM club option ($2MM buyout) that looks increasingly intriguing — making them natural candidates to be shipped out by a 46-54 Mets team that is closer to the NL’s worst record than to the division lead.

The larger source of intrigue surrounds whether the Mets would move assets controlled beyond the current season. To that end, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports within his latest column that the Mets “have been open to dealing” embattled closer Edwin Diaz. General manager Brodie Van Wagenen isn’t in any type of rush to move his offseason headliner, however. Rather, he’s endeavored to receive a comparable package to the one he surrendered in order to get Diaz in the first place. MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo tweets a similar sentiment, noting that the ask on Diaz is “so sky-high that it’s basically a non-starter.” Though ESPN.com’s Buster Olney suggests on Twitter that the Dodgers are a nice match on paper, he doesn’t indicate whether the sides have had actual discussions — let alone whether the Los Angeles organization would meet the Mets’ asking price.

Finding a deal that compares to the one that brought Diaz to New York seems an impossible order. In addition to taking on a hefty chunk of the Robinson Cano contract, the Mets parted with a pair of young players — Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn — who are soaring through the Mariners’ system and up top prospect rankings. Diaz’s strikeout, walk, ground-ball and swinging-strike rates have all gone in the wrong direction. And while he’s tossed six shutout innings since his most recent meltdown — a four-run collapse against the Phillies — he’s still lugging a 4.81 ERA with as many blown saves (four) as he had all of last season.

Even teams that feel they have an answer for Diaz’s struggles wouldn’t be willing to pay a metaphorical dollar-for-dollar rate in negotiations with the Mets. As for taking a lesser deal, the optics of trading him for cents on the dollar while retaining Cano and the sizable portion of his salary they absorbed in that deal would be poor, to say the least. Diaz is controlled through 2022, so a strong finish and/or a 2020 rebound would do wonders for his value.

It seems more plausible that if the Mets were to receive a sizable offer on a controllable arm, it’d be Noah Syndergaard. Olney tweets that the Mets are “seriously listening” to rival clubs that have interest. While Syndergaard hasn’t really thrown in a way that buttresses his own trade value, he’s throwing hard and seems to be in good health. His 4.36 ERA, 8.9 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 would all be career-worsts if the season ended today, but his track record and upside are so impressive that there’ll be loads of interest.

Whether that listening stance has a real chance of turning into meaningful trade talks remains to be seen. Both Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (Twitter links) and Andy Martino of SNY cite the Yankees as the club with perhaps the keenest level of interest in Syndergaard. Both reports suggest that top pitching prospect Deivi Garcia could be a headliner in such a deal, and while GM Brian Cashman plainly stated a couple weeks back that he wouldn’t move Garcia for a rental, Heyman suggests that the Yankees would “surely” put Garcia in play if meant obtaining Syndergaard, who is controlled through 2021.

Of course, the Yankees and Mets simply haven’t dealt with one another on the trade market at any point in recent history, which makes negotiations all the more complicated. And Olney tweets that he doesn’t think the New York rivals will be able to make a deal on such a significant player. Martino writes that the two teams have nevertheless talked Syndergaard “many times” this month, swapping proposals and counterproposals with no real progress being made. A deal is characterized as unlikely, although he also lists the Astros, Padres, Brewers and, to a lesser extent, the Twins as teams trying to pry Syndergaard loose.

That high asking price may not be the case with regard to Wheeler, whose value partially hinges on how well he performs in Friday’s expected return from the injured list. The Mets’ hope seems to be that a strong outing will quiet some concerns about Wheeler’s recent shoulder flareup, but the injury undoubtedly quelled some interest in him. Despite the concerns, Yahoo’s Mike Mazzeo cites a Mets official as calling the chances of a Wheeler trade “pretty high.”

If the Mets don’t find any offers on Wheeler to be viable or, even worse, he experiences renewed shoulder discomfort and is forced back to the IL, the club could retain him and issue a qualifying offer at season’s end. Barring a worrying showing, though, it may be that the Mets will end up simply taking the best offer on a player whose tenure in New York has seen its share of peaks and valleys.

Caleb Smith Drawing Interest

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Marlins left-hander Caleb Smith is generating interest as the July 31 trade deadline nears, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com tweets.

It’s no surprise there are teams eyeing the controllable, effective Smith, but whether the Marins are open to dealing him is in question. Frisaro reported a month ago that the Marlins aren’t willing to give up Smith, who has been one of the few hugely successful trade additions they’ve acquired since Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter bought the franchise late in the 2017 season.

Smith, like Jeter, joined the Marlins after a run with the Yankees. The 27-year-old hurler threw 77 1/3 effective innings with the Marlins a season ago and has been even more impressive in 2019. Across 90 frames, Smith has recorded a 3.30 ERA/4.13 FIP with 11.0 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9. While Smith’s 28 percent groundball rate ranks last among those who have thrown at least 90 innings this season, the home run ball hasn’t crushed him to this point. Smith has surrendered HRs on 15.2 percent of fly balls, which is below average but not ruinous.

Smith doesn’t throw particularly hard, evidenced by his 92.1 mph average, but hitters have nonetheless had difficulty squaring up against him. According to Statcast, Smith ranks in the 70th percentile or better in expected weighted on-base average against, exit velocity, fastball spin, expected batting average and strikeout rate. If that’s not appealing enough, Smith’s making what amounts to a minimum salary this season and won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2020 campaign.

All things considered, Miami would be within reason to request a ransom for Smith. However, assuming the Marlins haven’t changed their minds over the past month, they seem inclined to keep him.

Rangers Likely To Place Joey Gallo On IL

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Rangers outfielder Joey Gallo’s right wrist injury is “likely” to lead to a stint on the IL, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. The extent of the injury isn’t yet clear, but there’s concern within the team that Gallo fractured the hamate bone in his hand, per Grant. If so, he’ll need surgery.

Already amid a tailspin, a significant injury to their best player is the last thing the Rangers need. The club has surprisingly been in the playoff hunt for most of the season, but after losing nine of 10, it’s at .500 (51-51) and 6 1/2 games out of a playoff spot.

The fact that Texas has been in the hunt for most of the year is a tribute to Gallo, who has been one of the majors’ top players in 2019. Gallo missed time earlier in the season because of an oblique injury, but he has still slashed .253/.389/.598 (146 wRC+) with 22 home runs in 297 plate appearances. Factoring in his work in the field (4 Defensive Runs Saves, 5.5 Ultimate Zone Rating), Gallo has posted a career-high 3.3 fWAR.

If Gallo heads to the IL for the second time this year, the Rangers will recall Willie Calhoun from Triple-A Nashville to replace him, according to Grant. The Rangers demoted Calhoun a week ago, to his chagrin.

Yankees Place Gary Sanchez On Injured List

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5:48pm: Sanchez was diagnosed with a grade 1 strain, Boone tells reporters including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch (Twitter link). The skipper wasn’t able to give much of an estimate of the duration of the absence, saying only that “it’ll be some time” before Sanchez is back.

10:43am: The Yankees announced Wednesday that they’ve placed catcher Gary Sanchez on the 10-day injured list due to a strained left groin. Catcher Kyle Higashioka is up from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in his place. New York also optioned Jonathan Holder to Scranton and recalled lefty Nestor Cortes Jr. in his place.

The team didn’t provide any sort of timeline on Sanchez within the announcement, though presumably manager Aaron Boone will address the injury prior to tonight’s game against the Twins. It’s the second IL placement of the season for Sanchez, who previously missed about two weeks due to a calf strain back in April. In 238 plate appearances this season, Sanchez is hitting .229/.299/.508 with 24 home runs.

Higashioka, 29, won’t match Sanchez’s production at the plate, although it should be noted that he’s enjoying a career-best .268/.343/.581 showing in 201 Triple-A plate appearances. He’s appeared in 42 Major League games but has compiled a woeful .143/.209/.267 batting line in that time.

Swapping out Holder for Cortes is a natural move on the heels of a video-game-esque slugfest that saw the Twins and Yankees combine for 26 runs in 10 innings last night. That game featured five lead changes, 35 total hits and an incredible 12 runs scored in the eighth inning or later. As one might expect, both teams depleted their bullpen, cycling through six relievers apiece. Cortes gives the Yankees a fresh arm that can handle multiple innings, and the Twins will surely have some roster machination of their own in the next few hours.

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