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Archives for June 2019

Nationals Shut Down Koda Glover Following Setback In Rehab

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In what has become an all-too-familiar refrain for Nationals fans, right-hander Koda Glover has suffered a setback in his rehab from a forearm strain and will be shut down entirely for the next six weeks, manager Dave Martinez told reporters Thursday (link via Sam Fortier of the Washington Post). Glover received a platelet-rich plasma injection at the recommendation of Dr. James Andrews after experiencing elbow pain in a recent throwing session.

Once touted as the Nationals’ potential closer of the future, Glover has instead seen his career punctuated by a series of prolonged absences due to injury. Since his debut in 2016, the now-26-year-old Glover has missed time due to a torn labrum in his hip, multiple shoulder injuries and a lower back injury as well. High as the organization’s expectations for Glover have been, he’s managed to tally just 55 1/3 innings as a big leaguer dating back to 2016. In that time, the former eighth-round pick has a 4.55 ERA (4.00 FIP) with 6.8 K/9, 3.4 BB.9, 0.81 HR/9, a 41.4 percent ground-ball rate and an average fastball velocity of 96.2 mph.

Despite that minimal workload, Glover has spent enough time on the Major League disabled list/injured list to qualify for arbitration eligibility this offseason. While some might peg him as a potential non-tender candidate, there’d be little risk in retaining him. His lack of innings, particularly in his platform 2019 campaign, would make his raise rather minimal. Glover also has a pair of minor league options remaining, which enhances his appeal moving forward. And the Nationals, who carry MLB’s worst bullpen ERA, aren’t exactly in a position to be parting with any relievers they believe to be talented — even if Glover’s absence has contributed to the current state of the Washington bullpen.

Padres Reportedly Willing To Trade Most Position Players

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Padres outfielder Hunter Renfroe has come up in trade rumors this week, and the club is indeed willing to deal the 27-year-old slugger, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports. However, Renfroe’s not the only Padre who could end up on the move before the July 31 trade deadline. The team’s willing to give up “virtually” any of its position players except for shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr., third baseman Manny Machado and first baseman Eric Hosmer, according to Acee.

The Padres’ goal in dealing from its current position player cast would be to upgrade offensively at two spots – catcher and center field – and add “young arms,” per Acee. Their desire to pick up controllable pitching has long been known, though it’s interesting they want a better offensive backstop.

Major leaguers Austin Hedges and Austin Allen haven’t hit, but Triple-A catcher Francisco Mejia rode his potential at the plate into high rankings on prospect lists not long ago. As recently as last summer, when the Padres acquired Mejia from the Indians for relievers Brad Hand and Adam Cimber, Keith Law of ESPN regarded Mejia as one of the game’s top five farmhands. While Mejia has struggled mightily in the majors since then, he’s still just 23 and has tallied a mere 134 plate appearances in the bigs. It’s unclear from Acee’s report whether the Padres would be open to parting with Mejia, who has raked since they optioned him to the minors last month, or if they just don’t think he’s ready to make an offensive impact at the game’s highest level yet.

The 26-year-old Hedges has made an MLB impact, meanwhile, but almost solely behind the plate. Hedges rates as an elite defender, and though he was a respectable offensive player just last season, he otherwise hasn’t hit much since his 2015 debut.

Likewise, center fielder Manuel Margot has seldom hit since the Padres first promoted him in 2015. There has been talk of San Diego demoting him to the minors to help alleviate its outfield logjam. But as a 24-year-old speedster who has excelled in the field and won’t reach arbitration until the offseason, he’d likely draw interest on the trade market.

Perhaps aside from Renfroe, right fielder Franmil Reyes stands out as the Padres’ most valuable trade chip among position players. They offer similar offensive skill sets, and Renfroe’s a much better defender, though Reyes is three-plus years younger. Set to turn 24 in July, Reyes has slashed .263/.320/.520 (123 wRC+) with 35 home runs in 516 PA since he first came up last season. Further increasing Reyes’ appeal, he’s earning a minimal salary and isn’t scheduled to reach arbitration until after the 2021 season.

If the Padres keep Renfroe and Reyes, perhaps they’d consider trading fellow corner outfielder Josh Naylor. The 21-year-old Naylor hasn’t gotten off to a strong start since the Padres promoted him May 24, but he’s a top 100 prospect or close to it. Franchy Cordero, yet another of their young corner outfielders, seems likely to stay put when considering his recent injury issues. Cordero, 24, has missed most of the past season-plus with right elbow issues, and he suffered a mild quad injury while rehabbing this week.

As for the rest of San Diego’s roster, outfielder Wil Myers and second baseman Ian Kinsler jump to the fore as players the team would probably like to move. The trade value is minimal in both cases, though.

Myers, 28, hasn’t lived up to the six-year, $83MM contract the Padres gave him in January 2017. They backloaded the deal, meaning he’s owed almost $63MM through 2022 (including a $1MM buyout in ’23). Although Myers was a 30-home run hitter as recently as 2017, he’s still just a .242/.324/.450 batter (106 wRC+) dating back to then.

Kinsler, 36, joined the Padres on a two-year, $8MM contract in the offseason. While Kinsler has long been a quality major leaguer, the Padres haven’t gotten much return on their investment so far. Kinsler has hit .204/.264/.387 (72 wRC+) with minus-0.3 fWAR in 201 PA., though he has fared much better following an ice-cold April (.262/.309/.505 since May 1). Regardless of whether the Padres find a taker for Kinsler, it seems like only a matter of time before he loses his starting spot to standout prospect Luis Urias.

After a surprisingly competitive start to the season, San Diego has begun fading from the National League playoff race. Losers of five straight, the Padres sit 33-36 and 5 1/2 games out of wild-card position. However, with the talent already on hand and the high-potential players baking in the minors, the club may not be far away from contending on an annual basis. It seems general manager A.J. Preller will operate aggressively over the next month-plus in an effort to better position his roster to accomplish that. With that in mind, the Padres should be a compelling team to watch leading up to the deadline.

Dave Dombrowski Discusses Boston’s Deadline Approach

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After winning a major league-best 108 regular-season games and a World Series in 2018, the Red Sox have come out somewhat flat this year. The club’s firmly in the playoff hunt again, but at a middling 36-34, it sits a game out of an American League wild-card spot. Still, in discussing the upcoming trade deadline with Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com, Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski predictably revealed a willingness to buy.

Boston’s “always open to improving” should “the right opportunity” come along, Dombrowski said. The two-time championship-winning executive added the team will take an “aggressive” approach if it remains in contention leading up to July 31. That’s unsurprising coming from Dombrowski, who has been active on the summer trade market during his time in Boston. Just a year ago, pre-deadline acquisitions in first baseman Steve Pearce and right-hander Nathan Eovaldi played instrumental roles in the Red Sox’s run to a title. The season prior, Dombrowski pulled in reliever Addison Reed and infielder Eduardo Nunez in July, and he picked up lefty Drew Pomeranz and infielder Aaron Hill in 2016.

Judging by Dombrowski’s Red Sox history, moves are likely to happen in the coming weeks. The team’s bullpen is one area many Red Sox fans hope Dombrowski upgrades, but he’s not panicking over the maligned unit.

“People keep asking that question and have been asking it,” he told Cotillo of his relief corps. “It’s amazing how many fans and reporters in almost every city in Major League Baseball ask that same question.”

Boston’s bullpen does rank in the majors’ top 10 in ERA, FIP and K/BB ratio, all of which supports Dombrowski’s belief that it’s not in dire shape. Marcus Walden, Brandon Workman, Heath Hembree and Matt Barnes are among much-utilized Red Sox relievers who have posted respectable or better production in 2019. However, the team hasn’t found a full-time closer to take over for Craig Kimbrel, who officially said goodbye to Boston when he signed with the Cubs last week.

Additionally, the Red Sox are devoid of a lefty reliever at the moment, though the mending Brian Johnson could help in that regard when he returns from the injured list in the coming days. Johnson may end up in play for the Red Sox’s rotation, as could suspended knuckleballer Steven Wright when he comes back later this month. Their starting staff hasn’t gotten much production behind the established quartet of Chris Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello and Eduardo Rodriguez. Eovaldi, Hector Velazquez, Ryan Weber, Josh Smith and Darwinzon Hernandez have fallen flat across a combined 17 starts.

While Eovaldi’s a strong bet to reclaim the remaining spot in Boston’s starting staff when he comes off the IL, it’s up in the air when that will happen. Out since undergoing elbow surgery in late April, Eovaldi suffered a setback in his bicep last weekend. His arm problems could help inform Dombrowski’s deadline plans and persuade the exec to add another legit starter capable of aiding in the club’s playoff push. At the very least, the Red Sox look like candidates to increase their starting depth before the end of July.

Of course, in Boston’s case, the luxury tax is worth keeping in mind as it gears up to potentially add outside help. According to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, the Red Sox’s luxury tax payroll currently checks in at more than $251MM, which puts them on pace to exceed the league’s highest threshold ($246MM). If that occurs, the Sox will have to pay a 75 percent surtax for every dollar spent over the limit. They’ll also see their top 2020 draft pick fall 10 spots. The franchise ran a $239MM luxury tax payroll in 2018, which cost it $11.95MM in taxes and 10 spots on its first selection in this month’s draft.

Alex Avila Suffers Left Calf Strain

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Diamondbacks catcher Alex Avila exited the team’s game Thursday with a left calf strain, Zach Buchanan of The Athletic reports. Avila will go for an MRI, but he told Buchanan, “It will cost me some time.”

The 32-year-old Avila already missed more than a month earlier this season because of a strained left quad. When healthy, though, the soon-to-be free agent has enjoyed a productive season for the playoff-contending Diamondbacks. Avila, who hit his fifth home run of the year Thursday, has slashed .220/.410/.508 (135 wRC+) with a sky-high 23.1 percent walk rate through 78 plate appearances. Almost all of the lefty-swinging Avila’s trips to the plate have come against right-handed pitchers, as he has struggled versus southpaws throughout his career.

Although it’s a small sample of work, Avila has earned solid defensive marks and continued to throw out base stealers at a high clip (3 of 5) this season. The all-around package is one the Diamondbacks will miss if Avila has to return to the IL.

Primary catcher Carson Kelly – acquired in last winter’s Paul Goldschmidt trade with the Cardinals – has been a bright spot for the D-backs, but right-handed pitchers have manhandled him. He’ll continue to get the majority of reps, though, with either Caleb Joseph or John Ryan Murphy likely to come up from Triple-A Reno to grab Avila’s roster spot. Joseph is already on Arizona’s 40-man roster, while the team outrighted Murphy off it June 1.

Rays Place Christian Arroyo On 10-Day IL; Will Activate Joey Wendle

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10:29pm: The Rays will activate Wendle on Friday and option Wood, Juan Toribio of MLB.com tweets.

2:56pm: Arroyo is actually headed to the 10-day injured list with tendinitis in his right forearm, the team announced.  Hunter Wood is coming up from Triple-A to take Arroyo’s roster spot, so Wendle won’t yet be activated.

12:21pm: The Rays have optioned infielder Christian Arroyo to Triple-A Durham, and Eduardo A. Encina of the Tampa Bay Times writes that the move likely clears a path for the return of Joey Wendle, who has been out since late April due to a fractured wrist.

The broken wrist was Wendle’s second notable injury of the 2019 campaign, as he missed three weeks early in the year due to a hamstring strain. In all, the fourth-place finisher in last season’s American League Rookie of the Year voting has appeared in just eight games in 2019.

Wendle isn’t a household name, but his absence has been a significant one for Tampa Bay. He’s fresh off a strong .300/.354/.435 slash through 139 games a season ago, and Wendle’s versatile defensive skill set allows him to move around the diamond quite a bit. While he was the team’s primary second baseman in 2018, Wendle also saw time at third base, in the outfield corners and at shortstop. Wendle’s return will give skipper Kevin Cash a left-handed bat off what had been an all-right-handed bench; Arroyo had been joined there by Daniel Robertson, Guillermo Heredia and Travis d’Arnaud.

There may not be everyday at-bats for Wendle upon his return, given Brandon Lowe’s strong production at second base and the excellent play from corner outfielders Austin Meadows and Tommy Pham. But Wendle is hardly alone in his ability to move around the diamond, so Cash should be able to creatively deploy matchup-based combinations to get Wendle into the lineup.

As for Arroyo, he’ll head back to Durham — a setting where he has raked this season despite lackluster numbers in the minors. A key player acquired by the Rays in the trade that sent Evan Longoria to San Francisco, Arroyo has hit .314/.381/.603 with eight homers in 134 Triple-A plate appearances, but he’s managed just a .220/.204/.380 line in 57 big league trips to the plate. That’s been somewhat of a trend for Arroyo, who has consistently hit Triple-A pitching but has yet to find prolonged MLB success. Of course, he also hasn’t gotten much in the way of a long-term look since his debut with the Giants in 2017. This is Arroyo’s final option year, so the Rays will need to make a decision on him at some point in the not-too-distant future.

Ben Zobrist Could Return This Season

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The Cubs have been without utilityman Ben Zobrist since May 8 as he deals with a divorce, but they’re “open” to welcoming him back “later in the season,” president of baseball operations Theo Epstein told Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com and other reporters Thursday.

If the 38-year-old Zobrist does return in 2019, it’s “likely” to come toward the end of the season – possibly in September – a source tells Rogers. Notably, the Cubs won’t have to pay Zobrist for however long he stays away from the team. The club has already saved upward of $2MM since Zobrist’s leave began, and it’ll continue to pocket the same amount per month while he’s out. The money the Cubs haven’t had to shell out for Zobrist helped them sign free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel to a three-year, $43MM contract last week.

The Kimbrel addition has been a benefit of Zobrist’s disappearance, yet it’s not surprising that Epstein is hopeful the respected veteran will return. The four-year, $56MM contract the Cubs handed Zobrist entering the 2016 season likely stands as one of the smartest moves Epstein has made atop their baseball department. The switch-hitting, defensively versatile Zobrist has been one of the Cubs’ MVPs for a sizable portion of his tenure, and he played an important role in their drought-breaking World Series championship during his first year in their uniform.

Now in the last season of his deal, Zobrist did get off to a slow start on the field while dealing with a distracting situation off it. He opened 2019 with a .241/.343/.253 line (69 wRC+), no home runs and a nearly nonexistent .012 ISO in 99 plate appearances before going on the restricted list. If Zobrist does return toward year’s end and the contending Cubs are in position to clinch another postseason berth, he may need to log much better numbers than he has so far in order to earn a spot on their playoff roster. Fellow Cubs second basemen David Bote and Addison Russell have recorded far superior production to Zobrist in 2019, while the same holds true for the corner outfield-capable group of Kris Bryant, Jason Heyward, Kyle Schwarber and even the just-added Carlos Gonzalez.

Miles Mikolas Has Fallen Off

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The Cardinals signed free-agent right-hander Miles Mikolas to a two-year, $15.5MM guarantee in what became one of the wisest moves of the 2017-18 offseason. Although hardly a bank-breaking commitment, it was somewhat of a gamble for St. Louis. After all, Mikolas was an unspectacular major leaguer with the Padres and Rangers from 2012-14 who then spent three years pitching in Japan. Mikolas was dominant overseas, though, and he carried that excellence into 2018 in St. Louis.

During his first year with the Cardinals, Mikolas pitched to an outstanding 2.83 ERA/3.28 FIP in 200 2/3 innings. While Mikolas only struck out 6.55 batters per nine, he walked a mere 1.3 and induced ground balls at a 49.3 percent clip. Mikolas’ stinginess in the walk and fly ball departments helped lead to a 4.3 fWAR, which ranked 12th among major league starters.

Sold on Mikolas’ output last season, the Cardinals signed him to an extension worth a guaranteed $68MM for four years back in February. That deal will keep Mikolas under wraps through 2023, but unfortunately for the Cardinals, it’s not looking like a great move so far. Facing the lowly Marlins on Wednesday, Mikolas allowed five earned runs on eight hits in five innings, thereby raising his ERA to 4.83 in 78 1/3 frames this season. His 4.74 FIP isn’t much better.

Mikolas’ 2019 woes haven’t come because of significant declines in the strikeout, walk, groundball or BABIP categories. Those numbers look almost the same compared to last season, though there has been a noticeable drop in his strike rate. Nobody posted a higher strike percentage than Mikolas’ 69.3 a year ago, but the figure has fallen to 65.8 in 2019. Meanwhile, Mikolas’ strand rate has decreased by a large margin (from 76.2 percent to 70.9), and he has been far more prone to surrendering long balls.

After yielding home runs on a meager 9.2 percent of fly balls in 2018, Mikolas is all the way up to 19.7 this season. It hasn’t helped that Mikolas’ infield fly rate has plummeted from 9.8 percent to 4.2. At the same time, his hard-hit rate has climbed by greater than 5 percent, according to FanGraphs, while Statcast indicates his average exit velocity against has hopped from 85.4 mph to 88.2. Consequently, Mikolas’ weighted on-base average/expected wOBA against has shot from .271/.286 to .339/.347.

So why the newfound contact management issues? For one, Mikolas isn’t fooling as many hitters this year, as they’ve chased 5 percent fewer pitches than they did last season. And left-handed hitters have been especially tough on Mikolas, who held them to a .309 wOBA last season but has seen the number jump to .396 this year. As seen in these FanGraphs heatmaps (2018, ’19), he’s not staying away against lefties as well he did last season.

Worsening matters, Mikolas’ once-elite slider has been ineffective, and he has leaned on it less as a result. While Mikolas’ slider was one of the most valuable pitches of its kind a year ago, per FanGraphs, it has taken colossal steps backward this season. Batters posted a measly .201/.231 wOBA/xwOBA versus the offering in his first year in St. Louis, but they’re up to .395/.329 in the current campaign. If we’re to take that 66-point gap in face value, there has been some poor fortune involved. However, it simply hasn’t been close to as lethal as it was in 2018, perhaps owing to a 1 mph drop in velocity and somewhat of a change in typical location (heatmaps via FanGraphs: ’18, ’19).

Contrary to last season, when Mikolas’ slider helped him perform like one of the majors’ top starters, troubling signs abound for the 2019 version of the righty. His struggles are a key reason why the Cardinals have gotten off to a mediocre start and are on track to miss the playoffs for a fourth straight season. That’s not what the Redbirds had in mind when they bought high on Mikolas over the winter.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

International Transactions: 6/13/19

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Here’s the latest on some international transactions news from around baseball…

  • The Blue Jays signed Cuban right-hander Yosver Zulueta and Dutch right-handers Jiorgeny Casimiri and Sem Robberse in some late additions before the end of the 2018-19 international signing period, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi writes.  Toronto acquired an extra $1.5MM of bonus pool funds in spring trades of Kendrys Morales to the A’s and Dwight Smith Jr. to the Orioles, which accounted for these three Jays signing (Zulueta received “the majority of their spending room,” as per Davidi).
  • The Orioles signed Dominican center fielder Stiven Acevedo to a contract with a $275K bonus in April, Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun writes.  Acevedo’s birthday (August 2, 2002) made him a bit of an odd man out for the first batch of signings last July 2, as other teams committed most of their pools to players who were already 16 years old.  This left him available for Baltimore, who felt like Acevedo would have received a bonus of $1MM+ had he waited for the next international signing period this coming July 2.  Acevedo is already 6’4″ and 185 pounds despite his young age, “with feel for the barrel, not much swing-and-miss and the chance to grow into some power,” according to Meoli.  The piece is well worth a read for a full overview of the Orioles’ 2018-19 international signing endeavors, as the team has finally started to focus on the int’l market under new GM Mike Elias (and in the final weeks of former front office boss Dan Duquette’s tenure) and the O’s now seem positioned to be major players in the 2019-20 signing period.  In total, the O’s spent $2.167MM since last July 2, despite a signing pool that both rose and shrunk rapidly after multiple trades and pursuits of such high-profile prospects as the Mesa brothers.
  • Austin Bibens-Dirkx is no longer a member of the Uni-President Lions of the Chinese Professional Baseball League, the team announced (hat tip to Rob of CPBLStats.com)  Bibens-Dirkx wished to return to the United States to be with his wife as the couple expects a baby within the coming days.  Bibens-Dirkx posted a 5.27 ERA over 114 1/3 innings for the Rangers in 2017-18 before signing with the Uni-Lions in the offseason.  His time in the CPBL carries its share of struggles, as Bibens-Dirkx posted a 5.28 ERA and 1.26 WHIP 46 innings.

Who Will Win The NL Central?

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The National League Central looked like a three-team race at the beginning of the season, and not much has changed two months into the campaign. The Brewers, Cubs and Cardinals – the most hyped clubs in the division coming into the year – are at the top. After winning the division a year ago, the Brewers are 39-29, a half-game better than the Cubs. The Cardinals are a less impressive 33-33, five games back, though they’re certainly not out of the race. Meanwhile, the Reds and Pirates are eight and nine games behind, respectively. Neither looked likely to challenge for the NL Central at the outset of the season. They haven’t done anything to change anyone’s mind yet.

Led by reigning MVP right fielder Christian Yelich, brilliant free-agent acquisition Yasmani Grandal and offseason re-signing Mike Moustakas, the Brewers boast one of the majors’ most valuable groups of position players.  Their pitching hasn’t been as useful, on the other hand, as a rotation that was devoid of an ace entering the season has dealt with ineffectiveness and injuries throughout the year. However, the team still features elite reliever Josh Hader, with Jeremy Jeffress and Adrian Houser among those supporting him.

The Cubs’ position player mix has been even better than the Brewers’ this year, largely because Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras and David Bote have each offered strong production. Chicago’s rotation is probably better equipped, too, as Kyle Hendricks, Cole Hamels, Jose Quintana and Jon Lester are all proven commodities. Although, Yu Darvish hasn’t rebounded as hoped in his second year as a Cub. Darvish & Co. have handed off to a bullpen that hasn’t been lights-out this year, but it’s about to welcome all-time great closer Craig Kimbrel, whom the Cubs signed to a three-year, $43MM contract last week. Kimbrel would have been a match for the Brewers, making it all the more beneficial for the Cubs that they landed him (on paper, at least).

As for the Cardinals, they’ve fallen short of expectations after trading for ex-Diamondback Paul Goldschmidt, one of the premier position players in recent memory, and signing reliever Andrew Miller in the offseason. Both players have logged somewhat disappointing production to date, though Goldschmidt’s still an imposing presence and Miller has improved after a rocky start. Regardless, neither the Cardinals’ cast of hitters nor their relief corps is their most pressing issue. It’s their rotation, which hasn’t gotten high-end numbers from anyone. Jack Flaherty and Miles Mikolas have gone backward after impressive showings in 2018, while Dakota Hudson’s peripherals portend trouble. Adam Wainwright’s much closer to average than ace-like these days (and he’s now on the injured list with a hamstring issue), and nobody has nailed down the fifth spot in the Redbirds’ starting staff.

Considering the talent peppered throughout the Cardinals’ roster, it would be foolhardy to rule them out as potential division winners this season. Furthermore, with the trade deadline still yet to occur, St. Louis or anyone else in the division could put itself over the top with a shrewd acquisition(s) leading up to July 31. For now, though, the edge clearly belongs to the Cubs and the Brewers. FanGraphs currently projects the NL Central to finish in this order: Cubs (91-71), Brewers (87-75), Cardinals (83-79), Reds (78-84), Pirates (75-87). How do you expect it to shake out?

(Poll link for app users)

Free Agent Stock Watch: Josh Donaldson

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Third baseman Josh Donaldson was one of the majors’ elite players from 2013-17, a five-year, 3,270-plate appearance span with the Athletics and Blue Jays in which he ranked second only to Mike Trout in fWAR (34.4). Donaldson slashed .282/.377/.524 along the way and placed fifth in wRC+ (148) and sixth in home runs (164). In 2015, his best season during that stretch, Donaldson smashed 41 homers en route to American League MVP honors. Four years later, though, it’s highly questionable whether Donaldson will ever approach the MVP conversation again.

After an injury-limited 2018 season with the Jays and Indians, with whom he combined for a solid but unspectacular .246/.352/.449 line (117 wRC+) in 52 games and 219 trips to the plate, Donaldson headed to the NL via free agency this past winter. While he only inked a one-year contract with the Braves, they gave him $23MM in hopes he’d rekindle his glory years. However, two-plus months into the season, his production hasn’t matched his expensive salary.

The 33-year-old Donaldson turned in a 1-for-4 performance in a win over the Pirates on Thursday, contributing to a .236/.349/.419 line in 269 PA this season. While Donaldson has been a durable option for the Braves so far, his wRC+ only rates 5 percent above league average – his worst mark since his rookie year with the A’s in 2012. Having hit nine home runs, Donaldson’s on pace for 21, which would be his fewest in a full season. And Donaldson’s current ISO (.187) would also go down as his worst over a full campaign.

One of the problems, it seems, is that Donaldson’s not hitting enough fly balls. Donaldson’s pulling the ball more than ever, but that’s not particularly beneficial if he’s not elevating it. Although Donaldson was one of the game’s most notable spokesmen of its fly ball revolution during his heyday, his FB rate in 2019 (34 percent) is 8-plus percent lower than where it was in 2017 and checks in nearly 2 percent below league average. It’s unfortunate, too, because Donaldson’s 97.7 mph exit velocity on flies and line drives ranks 10th in the majors this year, according to Statcast. Donaldson’s 93 mph exit velo on all batted balls sits an even better ninth, though there’s not a ton of value in hitting hard grounders – especially when you possess below-average speed.

Beyond Donaldson’s batted-ball profile, his increasing strikeout rate presents more bad news. Donaldson has gone down on strikes 28.3 percent of the time this season, up from 18.4 percent during his half-decade stretch of greatness. To his credit, Donaldson’s somewhat offsetting that with a high walk rate (13.8 percent). However, he’s chasing more pitches than ever outside the strike zone, swinging and missing more than he has since his 34-PA debut in 2010, and making far less contact than he did in his star-level years.

Left-handed pitchers, whom the righty-swinging Donaldson has pulverized throughout his career, have been especially tough on him this year. He has slashed a horrid .167/.335/.229 against southpaws, who have stifled his power (ISO heatmaps via FanGraphs: 2010-18; 2019), in part because he’s no longer offering much resistance against offspeed pitches.

Adding everything up, Donaldson’s weighted on-base average and expected wOBA (.340/.354) indicate he’s still a quality producer at the plate. Beyond that, with three Defensive Runs Saved at the hot corner this season, Donaldson’s still capable of handling his position. But Donaldson’s not the All-Star performer he was in Oakland and Toronto, and he hasn’t done a lot in Atlanta to help his stock as he gears up for a second straight trip to free agency.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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