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Archives for June 2019

Marlins Have “No Intention” Of Trading Caleb Smith

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Although the Marlins have the worst record in the National League and the fifth-fewest wins in all of baseball, the organization has “no intention” of trading left-hander Caleb Smith to further its rebuilding effort, tweets Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. More broadly, he notes that Miami isn’t looking to deal from its core of controllable starters.

It still seems quite likely that teams will at least ask about Smith, 27, in the weeks leading up to the July 31 trade deadline. He’s currently on the 10-day IL due to some inflammation in his hip, but there’s no indication to this point that the injury is especially serious. Smith is controllable for four years beyond the 2019 campaign, which would hold enormous value to another club, particularly given how well he’s thrown when healthy.

Through 66 innings this year, Smith has turned in a 3.41 ERA with 11.2 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher who has been homer-prone even with a cavernous home park, but his 15.1 percent swinging-strike rate ranks fifth among pitchers with at least 60 innings thrown, trailing the quartet of Blake Snell, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. Smith’s 35,4 percent opponents’ chase rate is tied for 12th-best in that same set of 114 pitchers, and the spin rate on his heater falls in the 80th percentile among MLB pitchers.

Of course, all of those reasons are also cause for Miami to hang onto Smith. The Marlins aren’t going anywhere in 2019 and aren’t likely to contend in 2020, either, but they can keep Smith on the roster via arbitration all the way through the 2023 campaign. And for as solid as Smith has been on a per-inning basis, he’s yet to throw more than 77 1/3 innings in a big league season. He reached that level in 2018 before a Grade 3 lat strain ended his season, and his innings in 2019 are expected to be limited as a result. Other clubs may even be more interested in Smith if he proves durable enough to handle a full season of starts (or close to it), and Miami will have ample opportunity to market him down the road if the concept of moving him becomes more palatable.

As for the rest of the Marlins’ rotation, the bulk of their arms are even longer-term pieces. Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez and Trevor Richards are all controllable for five years beyond the current season, while fresh faces like Jordan Yamamoto and Zac Gallen can be controlled through at least 2025. Righty Jose Urena could very well have been attainable, but he’s now on the 60-day injured list due to a herniated disk in his back.

Frankly, the Marlins don’t seem to have many trade assets at all if the plan is indeed to hang onto their intriguing mix of young arms. Veteran Neil Walker has had a productive year and could be flipped for a modest return if he continues to perform once he’s recovered from the quad strain that currently has him on the IL. Fellow free-agent pickups Curtis Granderson and Sergio Romo haven’t been effective (particularly in the case of Granderson), and veteran Starlin Castro is having the worst offensive season of his career. It could be a quiet deadline for the Marlins unless they surprise by changing course with regard to their controllable starters and/or opt to pursue some bats with a good bit of team control remaining.

Quick Hits: Pujols, Dodgers, Haniger, Dipoto, Bichette

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On July 31, 2000, the Padres and Cardinals swung a trade deadline deal that sent Heathcliff Slocumb and prospect Ben Johnson to San Diego in exchange for catcher Carlos Hernandez and minor league utilityman Nate Tebbs.  The swap is little more than a footnote in team history, though it could’ve been a far more legendary trade had Johnson been replaced with another prospect who was on the Padres’ radar — Albert Pujols.  Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch details the intriguing history of that would-be deal, and how the Cardinals front office had to make a decision between including Pujols (a famously unheralded 13th-round pick in the 1999 draft) or Johnson, a much more highly-touted fourth-rounder from that same draft.  Pujols showed so much promise in his early pro career, however, that the team ultimately decided to move Johnson and spend more time evaluating a potential hidden gem.  “I really didn’t want to give up Ben, either, but that’s why you always have your top guys scout your own system,” said Walt Jocketty, then the Cardinals’ general manager.  “You have to know your own, like Pujols. There was no way we could trade him. No way, just based on what our guys had seen in a short period of time. They said, ‘I think he’s going to be something special – or has a chance to be.’ When I saw it myself, it was obvious.”

Here’s more from around the baseball world…

  • Even with Rich Hill on the IL for an undetermined period of time, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman isn’t planning to make starting pitching a particular focus at the trade deadline.  “I don’t see it being an area where we spend a lot of energy,” Friedman told reporters, including Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. “Could that change? Of course. But I don’t expect it right now. We don’t expect it to be an area of need.”  In fact, Friedman didn’t think his team had any obvious weak spots, which perhaps isn’t a surprise given the Dodgers’ league-best 54-25 record.  Instead, the front office will look out for “impact players,” since such additions are “what moves the needle in October.”
  • In an interview on “The Front Office” on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (audio link), Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto reiterated that his trade deadline efforts will be directed towards moving veteran players.  Younger and more controllable members of the Seattle roster are less likely to be moved, since they are part of what Dipoto hopes “is a very quick turnaround” within 12-18 months.  “Some of the guys that we do have here that attract the most trade attention, particularly guys like Mitch Haniger, they’re critical to our growth.  So at some point, you do have to build around something,” Dipoto said.
  • With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Cavan Biggio now in the majors, speculation is swirling in Toronto about when Bo Bichette could make his Blue Jays debut.  A consensus top-12 prospect in the sport prior to the season, Bichette has a .256/.316/.453 slash line and three homers over 96 Triple-A plate appearances in 2019, while missing over six weeks due to a fractured hand.  As a result, Jays GM Ross Atkins told Sportsnet.ca’s Ben Nicholson-Smith that Bichette still needs a bit more seasoning in his first stint at the Triple-A level.  “We’d really like to see some time in triple-A and have him get his legs under him and have a good strong foundation before we have that discussion [about a promotion],” Atkins said.  For comparison’s sake, Nicholson-Smith notes that Biggio had 174 PA and Guerrero 162 PA for Triple-A Buffalo before getting the call to the Show.

White Sox Haven’t Discussed Extension With Lucas Giolito

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A long-term deal between right-hander Lucas Giolito and the White Sox “hasn’t been talked about at all,” Giolito tells Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times.  “I know that’s kind of like the new thing, organizations coming to young players. But I haven’t thought about it myself, and I don’t know where the White Sox are at, either. Just keep playing, play well, and all that stuff takes care of itself,” Giolito said.

It isn’t surprising that the club has yet to broach a deal with Giolito’s reps at CAA Sports, as players in general prefer to stay away from in-season extension talks for fear of distraction.  Needless to say, the Sox don’t want to do anything to throw Giolito off during what has been a breakout season for the 24-year-old.  Giolito has a 2.74 ERA, 10.97 K/9, and 3.59 K/BB rate over 85 1/3 innings for Chicago, with a 14.6% swinging-strike rate that easily tops his previous career high of 10.1% (in 2017), and a drastic reduction in the home run issues that plagued Giolito over his first three seasons in the big leagues.  The righty has only an 0.8 HR/9 in 2019, as opposed to a 1.6 HR/9 in his 240 innings prior to the current seasons.

There isn’t any particular rush for the White Sox to seek out an extension, as Giolito isn’t eligible for arbitration until after the 2020 season and free agency until after 2023.  Plus, it could be that the front office wants to see just a bit more positive evidence before making a big financial commitment given how Giolito struggled last season, though MLB success has long been predicted for the right-hander.  If it weren’t for elbow problems that eventually required Tommy John surgery, Giolito might have very well been the first pick of the 2012 draft, and was still taken 16th overall by the Nationals.  After returning to health and becoming a staple of top-prospect rankings (Giolito was a consensus top-five prospect prior to the 2016 season), he was part of the trade package the Nationals sent to the White Sox for Adam Eaton in December 2016.

As Van Schouwen notes, the White Sox have been proactive in extending young talent since Rick Hahn took over as general manager.  Such notable names as Eaton, Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Nate Jones, Tim Anderson and (just this spring) Eloy Jimenez have all signed extensions under Hahn’s regime, and it certainly wouldn’t be a surprise if the Sox approach the likes of Giolito or Yoan Moncada about a multi-year contract in the offseason.

In terms of possible comps, Giolito will have between two and three years (two years, 80 days) of MLB service time if he remains on Chicago’s 25-man roster for the rest of the season, which seems like a lock.  German Marquez had a similar amount of time on his MLB clock when he inked a five-year, $43MM extension with Colorado in early April, though Marquez is about seven months younger than Giolito and had more of a proven track record at the Major League level.  Luis Severino also has had more consistent big league success than Giolito, though Severino’s four-year, $40MM extension with the Yankees may also have not have been an ideal model since that contract covered four arbitration years (Severino is a Super Two player).

MLB Draft Signings: 6/23/19

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Here’s a look at the latest noteworthy draft signings, with the newest moves at the top of the post.  Click here for the full list of slot values and draft pool bonuses, and you can find prospect rankings and scouting reports from Baseball America’s Top 500,  Fangraphs’ Top 200, MLB.com’s Top 200, and the Top 50 of ESPN.com’s Keith Law….

  • Gunnar Henderson, the first pick of the second round (42nd overall), has decided to sign with the Orioles and will officially do so in a few days’ time, Maria Martin of WSFA 12 News reports (Twitter link).  Contract terms aren’t known, though the 42nd overall pick has a recommended slot price of $1,771,100 and Baltimore’s offer might well have exceeded that number to get Henderson to break his commitment to Auburn.  Henderson was ranked by MLB.com as the 27th-best prospect of the class, with BA (30th), Fangraphs (40th) and Keith Law (42nd) also giving high grades to the Alabama high schooler.  Henderson is praised for his hitting potential and some scouts feel he can remain at shortstop, though there is some thought that a move to third base is inevitable.

Aaron Sanchez’s Diminishing Trade Value

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Trade rumors have swirled around both Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman for months, though teams considered the Blue Jays’ asking price for either young right-hander to be “uncomfortably high” during the offseason.  The Jays were thought to still be looking for a premium return in any deal, despite the fact that both Sanchez and Stroman were coming off inconsistent, injury-shortened seasons.  The prevailing wisdom was that the Jays would be counting on both pitchers to be healthy and effective in the first half of 2019, paving the way for the duo to become prime trade chips at the July 31st deadline.

For Stroman, it’s been all systems go in amassing a 3.04 ERA over 100 1/3 innings, including his six shutout frames against the Red Sox today.  For Sanchez, however, his first 16 starts have only led to more frustration.  Sanchez has managed only a 5.49 ERA over 78 2/3 innings this season, with ERA indicators (5.48 FIP, 5.30 xFIP, 5.43 SIERA) and hard-contact numbers (a .355 xwOBA just slightly below his .359 wOBA) providing evidence that Sanchez’s struggles are far removed from simple bad luck.

Counting his abbreviated 2017 season, Sanchez is now in his third straight year of issuing at least five walks per nine innings.  While he has a 50% grounder rate, 16.4% of the fly balls he has allowed have left the yard, leading to an unimpressive 1.4 HR/9.  Never a big strikeout pitcher even at his peak in 2016, Sanchez has a 7.44 K/9 this season.

Speaking of Sanchez’s 2016 season, that excellent year stands out as the most recent bit of evidence that the right-hander has be a front-of-the-rotation type of starter, as Sanchez has since been consistently hampered by a variety of finger problems.  Between cracked and removed fingernails, surgery to repair a right index finger injured after being caught in a suitcase, and constant blister problems, Sanchez has been fraught with the type of hard-to-diagnose yet persistent injury concerns that would give any team pause.

As Sanchez told The Athletic’s John Lott (subscription required) last winter, the finger problems led to mechanical issues, as Sanchez tried to adjust for a new grip on the baseball.  This led to a steep increase of Sanchez’s use of a changeup in 2018 that has continued into this season, and Sanchez’s curveball usage has also spiked to a career-high 22.7% this season (his previous high was 16.6% in 2017).

Though Sanchez is averaging 94mph on his fastball, he has only been throwing it 58.3% of the time in 2019 due to a lack of effectiveness.  As per Fangraphs’ fastball runs above average metric (wFB), Sanchez has gotten less than his heater (-12.1 wFB) than all but two other qualified pitchers in baseball.  Lott noted back in January that Sanchez’s sinker was a plus pitch for him in 2016, yet it has become an increasingly smaller part of the righty’s arsenal — after throwing it 54.9% of the time in 2016, that total dropped to 37.9% last season and 36.3% this year.

With all this in mind, Sanchez would need a big turn-around over the next four weeks to merit the type of return that the Blue Jays want for a young (Sanchez turns 27 on July 1) pitcher who is controlled through the 2020 season.  Controllable arms have enough value in baseball that the Jays would surely still get some type of decent offers for Sanchez, especially if there’s a team out there that believes it has a fix for Sanchez’s grip problems.

The trouble is, a “decent” offer would still be seen as a big disappointment for a rebuilding Jays team that hasn’t been able to maximize its return on several of its veterans.  Josh Donaldson would’ve been the Blue Jays’ biggest trade chip of 2018 yet shoulder and calf problems kept the third baseman off the field for much of the season, leaving the Jays forced to settle for just one prospect coming off Tommy John surgery (Julian Merryweather) in a trade with Cleveland.  J.A. Happ was dealt at last year’s trade deadline for Brandon Drury and Billy McKinney, neither of whom have done much for the Jays this season.  Roberto Osuna was sent to Houston last July for a three-pitcher package that included current closer Ken Giles, though Osuna surely would’ve netted more were it not for his off-the-field legal issues.

A case can be made that Toronto could opt to just hang onto Sanchez to see if he can ever get on track either after July 31st or in the first few months of the 2020 season.  Sanchez is earning only $3.9MM this year and will only get a modest raise on that salary in his final season of arbitration eligibility, plus the Blue Jays will still need some kind of veteran rotation help next year.

There’s nothing stopping the Jays from continuing to explore trades for Sanchez over the winter, though then the team runs the risk that his rebound performance simply never comes around (or simply won’t come in a Toronto uniform if a change of scenery is required).  The Jays face an increasingly tough decision leading up to the trade deadline, as the team will have to weigh whether settling for a modest trade return for Sanchez now might be preferable than getting even less, or nothing at all, for Sanchez down the road if his underwhelming 2018-19 performance represents his new normal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Injury Notes: Soroka, Manaea, Gennett, Wood

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Braves right-hander Mike Soroka was removed from today’s game after being hit by a pitch by Austin Voth.  Soroka was struck in his right forearm, and while he took his base and finished the inning, he didn’t return to the mound in the bottom half of the frame.  The team announced that Soroka was removed “as a precaution,” and MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweeted that x-rays on Soroka’s forearm were negative.  It doesn’t appear as if the injury is too serious, which is undoubtedly a big relief for both the Braves and the rookie sensation.  While advanced metrics indicate that Soroka’s grounder-heavy (57% ground ball rate) arsenal is due for some regression, his 2.07 ERA over 78 1/3 innings has been a huge boost to an inconsistent Atlanta rotation.

Here’s more on some injury situations from around the game…

  • After throwing 60 pitches in a simulated game on Thursday, Sean Manaea’s rehab has been halted after the southpaw reported soreness in his right side, Athletics manager Bob Melvin told MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos and other media.  “He’s got a little bit of a side soreness, so we’re shutting him down for a little bit. I don’t know if it’s an oblique or if he’s just feeling it a little bit in his side,” Melvin said. “We’re cutting back on him for a little bit here to get healthy. It’s not the arm, which is good.”  There isn’t any known timetable for when Manaea could begin throwing again, though Melvin didn’t seem to consider the issue to be major.  The A’s were projecting a possible return for Manaea after the All-Star break, as the left-hander was slated to begin a minor league rehab assignment following his last simulated outing.  Manaea hasn’t pitched since August 24, 2018 after undergoing shoulder surgery last September.
  • Scooter Gennett’s rehab assignment shifts from high-A ball to Triple-A this week, and Reds manager David Bell told reporters (including Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer) that “there’s a chance” Gennett could be activated off the injured list on Friday, when the Reds begin a series against the Cubs.  The club will be as careful as possible with Gennett’s recovery process, of course, as the second baseman has yet to play this season due to a severe groin strain.  Gennett’s minor league rehab stint can last up to 20 days in length, and he only just got back on the field earlier this week.
  • Alex Wood, another Reds player who has yet to see action this season, is scheduled for his first rehab start on Thursday, Bell said.  Back problems have kept Wood out of action since late February, and he isn’t expected to be a candidate to join Cincinnati’s roster until after the All-Star break.  “We can’t rush it and he hasn’t had a Spring Training. We have to build him up,” Bell said.

Report: Yankees Uninterested In Dealing Clint Frazier For Rental

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SUNDAY: Beyond just rental players, the Yankees also don’t want to deal Frazier for a pitcher who is only controlled through the 2020 season, as per FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (video link).  This would seemingly remove such popular trade candidates as Toronto’s Marcus Stroman or Cleveland’s Trevor Bauer from consideration in a potential Frazier deal, unless this is a case of the Yankees aiming as high as they can in initial trade talks.

FRIDAY: While the Yankees are willing to discuss young outfielder Clint Frazier in trade talks, Andy Martino of SNY.tv reports that they have no interest in sending him out for a rental player. At least, that’s the word the team is putting out to other organizations at the moment.

Frazier has become a popular topic of discussion in New York since his recent demotion to make way for just-acquired slugger Edwin Encarnacion. Despite slashing a healthy .283/.330/.513 with 11 home runs in 209 plate appearances, Frazier was again dropped back to Triple-A.

It’s not clear that the talented 24-year-old has a path back to a significant role with the Yankees in the near term. With Aaron Judge set to return and Giancarlo Stanton already back in action, the roster is brimming with righty sluggers.

That’s not to say that the Yanks won’t value Frazier. Owner Hal Steinbrenner has spoken highly of the young slugger, though that’s hardly an assurance that Frazier is off limits. The organization is obviously aware of the value of maintaining depth, even if it seems like a bit of a luxury, and Frazier is optionable this season and next.

It still feels like an opportune moment to cash in Frazier, who has hit enough to hold plenty of appeal despite some highly visible defensive miscues and a dust-up with the media. Even if he’s allowed to cross the threshold to his second full year of MLB service, Frazier will be controllable for four more campaigns beyond the present.

Given all the countervailing considerations, the Yankees’ reported position on Frazier makes sense — at this stage of the proceedings, at least. This market’s top rental pieces are perhaps not of overwhelming enough quality to warrant such an outlay. Then again, we have seen even more controllable, higher-end talents shipped out for the right rental scenarios. (The Yanks were notable beneficiaries of just such a swap.) And it’s worth bearing in mind that a few organizations — the Giants, especially, though they could be joined by others — possess multiple intriguing trade assets that could conceivably be packaged together to boost the appeal to the Bronx Bombers. (There’s precedent for that kind of swap, as well.)

NL Notes: Cubs, Happ, Story, Newcomb, Cervelli

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It’s been a while since the last update on the Cubs’ Ian Happ, who has yet to appear in a Major League game this season after he was optioned to Triple-A out of spring training. The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma, though, offers some insight into Happ’s mindset and process as he works towards rejoining the Cubs. Happ, 24, was a productive big-leaguer in his first two seasons with the Cubs, but was plagued by strikeouts and inconsistency, neither of which is an uncommon issue for a young player. During his time in Triple-A, Happ has focused on refining his approach and retooling his swing with an eye on contributing to a contending Cubs team in the second half. After striking out in 33.8% of his first 875 plate appearances, Happ has that number down to 27.3% in the minors this year, while increasing his ground ball rate as a result of a flattened swing designed to better cover elevated pitches. With Daniel Descalso and Addison Russell getting the majority of the second base reps and Albert Almora Jr. in center field, there looks to be an avenue for Happ to help to the Cubs in the near future, but it appears that the Cubs are content with a patient approach to Happ’s situation.

Here’s the latest on a handful of National League clubs…

  • Good news for Rockies shortstop Trevor Story, who recently landed on the IL with a thumb injury that was said to keep Story out for “multiple weeks.” Per the Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders, however, Story is progressing faster than anticipated and could indeed return to the Rockies after the allotted 10 days on the injured list. That would put Story on track to rejoin his team on June 29, which is certainly a welcome turn of events in Colorado. Surely, that’s no guarantee and the Rockies won’t rush their star back, but it’s sure to inspire more optimism than the original timeline.
  • The Braves’ bullpen will get a boost this week, with left-hander Sean Newcomb expected to return from the injured list ahead of Tuesday’s game against the Cubs, according to Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. He showed promising signs in his most recent rehab outing and should be ready to pitch for the first time since taking a J.T. Realmuto liner to the neck last weekend. Though Mike Foltynewicz was demoted, thus leaving a void in the Braves’ starting rotation, that won’t be filled by Newcomb, who will remain in a relief role for the foreseeable future.
  • Pirates catcher Francisco Cervelli could rejoin the team as early as next weekend, tweets Adam Berry of MLB.com. The 33-year-old catcher, who has been on the injured list since May 25 after suffering a concussion, could start a rehab assignment in the next few days and return to action for the Bucs shortly thereafter. Certainly, the Pirates have kept their heads above water with a catching tandem of Elias Diaz and Jacob Stallings, both of whom have thus far outperformed Cervelli, who struggled in the season’s opening months.

Mets Consider Moving Amed Rosario To Center Field

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The Mets are at least toying with the idea of moving Amed Rosario to center field, writes Tim Healey of Newsday. Rosario’s 2019 struggles at shortstop have been well-documented and the club has a noticeable opening in center field, with Brandon Nimmo sidelined indefinitely and Juan Lagares struggling mightily as his replacement.

Whether you prefer traditional or advanced metrics, the message on Rosario has been clear: this year, he has been a negative at shortstop. His 11 errors are tied for the most in the National League, and he has accumulated -13 DRS, the worst mark among qualified shortstops.

For his part, Rosario has said that he is open to such a move, per Healey. Though he hasn’t played the position in his professional career, it’s not uncommon for middle infielders to transition to center field. The Diamondbacks’ Ketel Marte, a former shortstop, is one such example, with Dee Gordon of the Mariners setting a less promising precedent.

As a prospect, Rosario was touted for his quickness, hands, and footwork at short, all of which were indicators that he had the ingredients to stay at the position in the long-term. Of course, no one is saying that Rosario is a lost cause yet—he’s still just 23 years old and there’s no reason to believe the tools that made him a top prospect have suddenly vanished. Quality shortstops are hard to find, so there’s no doubt that the Mets would like Rosario to prove himself worthy of the starting job.

At the same time, though, if the organization is intent on contending in the near future, it may be in its best interests to give the youngster a chance in center field, another premium, up-the-middle position. The new position would allow Rosario to provide value to his club without putting too much pressure on his bat—with a career .685 OPS, Rosario hasn’t shown that his offense is enough to carry his profile.

The Mets have already experimented with several infielders getting outfield reps: Jeff McNeil, J.D. Davis, and Dominic Smith have all received extended looks in corner outfield spots, providing versatility that manager Mickey Callaway asserts has “made us a better team.” Indeed, the aforementioned trio have all provided valuable offensive production, with Davis and Smith receiving regular playing time despite not starting everyday, which can be attributed in part to their ability to play a couple of spots in the event of injuries or resting starters.

Of course, there’s no guarantee that the Mets will follow through with such a move, and playing center field likely wouldn’t preclude Rosario from seeing time at shortstop moving forward. However, the current circumstances make it seem that now is as good a time as ever to challenge a talented young player in hopes that a position change could unlock a defensive breakthrough for a former top prospect.

To be sure, in the event that Rosario makes the switch, the Mets will need someone to take over for him as the everyday shortstop, which is no small task. Adeiny Hechavarria is perhaps the most likely replacement, with Luis Guillorme bearing mention as well, though neither has played well enough to force Callaway’s hand. Notably, the Mets’ farm system features a promising shortstop, Andres Gimenez, ranked as its number one prospect. However, he is still just 20 years old and has posted mediocre numbers at Double-A Binghamton. Certainly, it’s a situation worth monitoring as the Mets’ frustrating season continues.

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