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Archives for May 2019

Miguel Cabrera’s Power Is MIA

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It’s no surprise this has been a lean year for the rebuilding Tigers, who sit near the bottom of the majors at 20-32 through two months. A team can still be entertaining even if it’s not good enough to contend, but the Tigers have largely failed in that respect. If you like offense, you should probably avoid watching Detroit. The Tigers rank second to last in the majors in runs (180) and wRC+ (74), leading only the Marlins in those categories, while they’re better than just the Fish and the Giants in OPS (.658).

Part of the Tigers’ problem has been the sharp decline of future Hall of Fame first baseman Miguel Cabrera, whose long-running days as a force may be gone. With a .294/.368/.369 line, Cabrera’s one of just two qualified hitters on this year’s Tigers with a wRC+ of 100 (league average), but that’s not saying much in his case. After all, Cabrera is one of the greatest hitters ever, a former Triple Crown winner and the owner of a magnificent .316/.394/.547 slash with 2,730 hits and 467 home runs across 9,895 plate appearances. He also boasts a 148 wRC+ that ranks 32nd in the history of the game.

After debuting with the aforementioned Marlins as a 20-year-old wunderkind in 2003, Cabrera became a perennial 30-home run threat and has since hit at least that many in 10 seasons. The right-hander blasted 38 HRs in 2016, which is looking more and more like the final high-power season he’ll ever have. Cabrera notched 16 in 529 trips to the plate in 2017 and then three in an injury-shortened, 157-PA campaign last season.

Through 212 PA this year, his age-36 season, Cabrera has added a meager two HRs to his ledger. Perhaps of greater concern, Cabrera possesses the majors’ third-lowest ISO (.075), bettering only two members of the Marlins’ dreary offense – Miguel Rojas and Starlin Castro – in that category. Even though Cabrera’s .149 mark from 2017-18 was between 12 and 22 points below league average in those seasons, it looks appealing compared to where he stands nowadays. What’s alarming is that there’s not much evidence to suggest Cabrera is due for an enormous turnaround. Given that Cabrera’s one of the game’s slowest runners, it’s unlikely his .371 batting BABIP will stick around and continue to help prop up his batting average. And while Cabrera’s expected weighted on-base average (.336) does outpace his real mark (.322), it’s closer to middle of the pack than exceptional.

On one hand, it seems unwise to shovel dirt on the career of a two-time MVP and 11-time All-Star. It’s quite possible, though, that age has reduced Cabrera to an unspectacular offensive player who’s neither all that valuable in the field nor on the bases. That sounds a lot like the Angels’ Albert Pujols, a baseball luminary who has become a replacement-level player (or worse) in recent seasons.

Pujols’ enormous contract – a 10-year, $240MM albatross that runs through 2021 – has weighed the Angels down during his decline phase and will continue to do so until it expires. Detroit may be in the same position with Cabrera, whom it signed to an eight-year, $248MM extension entering the 2014 season. Cabrera will make a $30MM salary through 2021 and $32MM between 2022-23 before the Tigers buy him out for $8MM (in lieu of a $30MM club option) going into 2024. But Cabrera may already be amid an irreversible downward spiral with $151MM left on his deal, which is a horrifying possibility for the Tigers.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Minor MLB Transactions: Reds, Orioles

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A couple minor moves from around baseball…

  • The Reds have released outfielder Zeek White, according to Doug Gray of RedsMinorLeagues.com and RedlegNation.com. White had been with the Reds since they acquired him (and a right-hander named Luis Castillo) in a package for righty Dan Straily in January 2017. Two years before that, the Marlins used a third-round pick (No. 85) on White. Although he was a fairly high pick in his draft class, the 22-year-old White hasn’t been able to work his way past the Single-A level.
  • The Orioles have signed Cuban infielder Yorkislandy Alvarez, Francys Romero of Las Mayores tweets. Alvarez, who’s now 20, left the under-18 Cuban team in Montreal in 2017 and later moved on to Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic, per Romero. Other than that, there is little to no information available on him.

Astros Get “Encouraging” News On Injured Jose Altuve

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Injured Astros second baseman Jose Altuve is dealing with fatigue and soreness in his right leg, though it doesn’t appear to be a major issue. The Astros received “encouraging” news after evaluating Altuve on Tuesday, according to manager A.J. Hinch. However, Altuve’s going to need time to “strengthen his lower half,” per Hinch. Altuve added he hopes to return to the diamond “pretty soon” (Twitter links via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle).

The 29-year-old Altuve has been on the 10-day IL since May 11 because of a problem with his other leg – a left hamstring strain – but looked as if he’d be able to return by Wednesday before this setback occurred. Now, though, it’s unclear when he’ll be ready to come back. Altuve underwent surgery on his right knee last October. Between that and Altuve’s importance to the Astros, who signed the six-time All-Star to a five-year, $151MM extension in March 2018, they’re inclined to take a cautious approach in this situation.

Even with Altuve and George Springer on the IL (and the banged-up Carlos Correa out Monday), the loaded Astros have continued to roll over their competition. They beat the Cubs on Monday to move to 13-4 since Altuve went down. Houston now boasts an elite 37-19 record and a seven-game lead over white-hot Oakland in the AL West.

Latest On Ben Zobrist

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The Cubs have been without utilityman Ben Zobrist since May 8 because of a personal matter. Three weeks later, they remain unsure whether Zobrist will return this season, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times.

Teammates and manager Joe Maddon are among those lamenting the respected Zobrist’s absence, as detailed in Wittenmyer’s piece. Asked if Zobrist won’t come back in 2019, Maddon admitted, “I have to think that way, absolutely,” adding the Cubs must “mentally be prepared” that his season is over. Even if Zobrist does return, Maddon noted that “it’s going to take him a while to get back up to speed.”

Zobrist is in the last season of his contract with the Cubs, who signed him to a four-year, $56MM pact entering the 2016 campaign. He’s on a $12MM salary this year, but it’s unclear if Zobrist is collecting that money while he’s on the restricted list. This season’s issues notwithstanding, the contract has worked out swimmingly for the Cubs.

The switch-hitting, multi-positional Zobrist was one of the Cubs’ most valuable players from 2016-18, including when he helped the team to its first World Series title since 1908 in the initial season of the deal. The 38-year-old got off to a rough start on the field this season before going on leave, however, and now it’s unknown whether he’ll suit up for the Cubs again.

Anibal Sanchez To Return Wednesday

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The Nationals will activate right-hander Anibal Sanchez from the 10-day injured list to start against the Braves on Wednesday, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com was among those to report. Washington will make a corresponding move when Sanchez’s return becomes official.

Sanchez went to the IL with a hamstring strain May 17, the day after the injury forced him into a quick exit in a start against the Mets. The IL placement was the latest less-than-ideal development of the season for the 35-year-old Sanchez, who revived his career with the Braves in 2018. Sanchez’s success in Atlanta led the Nationals to hand him a two-year, $19MM guarantee in free agency.

Two months into Sanchez’s deal, the move hasn’t worked out for the slumping Nats. Sanchez has taken the ball for nine starts and pitched to a below-average 5.10 ERA/4.79 FIP in that 42 1/3-inning span. While Sanchez has struck out just under a batter per inning so far, his walk rate has offset that. Sanchez walked under three per nine last year, but he’s at 5.31 this season. Moreover, his groundball rate has plummeted from 45 percent to 31.5.

At 23-32, the Nationals may be the most disappointing team in the game, but there’s arguably enough talent on hand for the club to get back in the race. Of course, it would help for Sanchez to better resemble the pitcher he was last year upon his return. In doing so, he’d give Washington a solid complement to the all-world Max Scherzer–Stephen Strasburg–Patrick Corbin trio. The Nationals haven’t been able to find any solutions behind them this season, though Erick Fedde did just enjoy a two-start, 10-inning, one-run stretch. Like Sanchez, fellow offseason free-agent signing Jeremy Hellickson has stumbled after a bounce-back 2018. Hellickson went to the IL on May 20 with a shoulder strain.

Draft Retrospection: Dodgers Steal A Superstar

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It was June 2013, six years ago, that the Dodgers secured one of the greatest draft steals in recent memory. In the fourth round, with the 124th overall pick, the Dodgers chose an Arizona high school first baseman/pitcher named Cody Bellinger. Although Bellinger’s the son of a former big leaguer, ex-Yankees and Angels infielder/outfielder Clay Bellinger, that didn’t make him a slam dunk to turn into a contributor at the MLB level.

Scouts were somewhat bullish on Bellinger at the time of his drafting, though, with some likening him to former major league first baseman Adam LaRoche (via Baseball America). Although LaRoche had a better and longer career than most, it’s obvious Bellinger has blown by him two-plus seasons into his career. In fact, Bellinger already has a superior lifetime fWAR to LaRoche (11.9 to 11.5) despite having amassed almost 5,000 fewer plate appearances.

Even though he didn’t come off the board near the very top of his draft class, Bellinger developed into one of the game’s 100 best prospects and immediately made good on the hype in the bigs. Los Angeles promoted Bellinger in April 2017, a season in which he saw extensive action at two positions – first base and left field – and wound up taking home NL Rookie of the Year honors.

Bellinger slashed .267/.352/.581 (138 wRC+) in his inaugural season, smacked the majors’ fifth-most home runs (39) and stole 10 bases. While Bellinger wasn’t as effective in 2018, he still recorded a solidly above-average line of .260/.343/.470 (120 wRC+) with another 25 homers and 14 steals.

Had the 23-year-old Bellinger showed up this season and been the same type of producer he was in 2018, the Dodgers likely would have been satisfied. Instead, through two months, he has looked like a bona fide superstar and the No. 1 challenger to reigning NL MVP Christian Yelich. With an astounding .363/.469/.761 slash, Bellinger easily ranks first in wRC+ (216), outpacing the second-place Yelich (188) by 28 points and baseball deity Mike Trout (172) by 44. Yelich does have a two-home run lead on Bellinger (21-19), but the latter has clearly been the more valuable player by Wins Above Replacement (5.2 rWAR/4.3 fWAR to 2.9/3.0).

Are Bellinger’s otherworldly offensive numbers sustainable? Perhaps not, as it’s hard to keep up a 1.200-plus OPS all season unless you’re Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Rogers Horsnby, Jimmie Foxx or another legend along those lines. But the strides Bellinger has made are very real. He has slashed his strikeout rate to 13.8 percent, down 10.1 percent from 2018, while increasing his walk rate from 10.9 to 14.3. He’s also hitting way more line drives and far fewer ground balls, making much more contact, whiffing less and chasing fewer out-of-zone pitches than he did in previous years. Meanwhile, Statcast credits the lefty-swinging Bellinger with the game’s top-ranked expected weighted on-base average (.504) – which is somehow better than his .500 real wOBA.

Adding to Bellinger’s appeal, he’s hardly an offense-only player. While it’s tough to get too exited about two months of defensive data, it’s similarly difficult not to raise eyebrows over his fielding numbers. In 46 games in right field this season, Bellinger has already put up 12 Defensive Runs Saved and a 4.9 Ultimate Zone Rating. He ranks top three among all outfielders in those categories. As Mark Simon of Sports Info Solutions noted last week, Bellinger’s left arm has been his greatest asset in the field. He fired the cannon on multiple occasions Sunday to stonewall Mets base runners.

With this year’s draft nearing, Bellinger’s rise is an important one to keep in mind. Aside from Cubs great Kris Bryant and arguably the Yankees’ Aaron Judge, Bellinger has outdone every first-round pick from his draft class. They each went anywhere from 91 to 123 choices before Bellinger, but he may soon follow Bryant in becoming the class’ second MVP. More importantly for the Dodgers, who continue to fire on all cylinders, the player they once used a mere fourth-rounder on could end up as the face of a World Series winner as early as this season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Injury Notes: Astros, Lyles, Vincent, Reid-Foley

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Astros stars Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa are both being evaluated by the team’s medical staff for potential injuries, the team told reporters Tuesday (Twitter links via Jake Kaplan of The Athletic). Altuve was already on the injured list but reported feeling fatigue and soreness his right leg after playing minor league rehab games on consecutive days. That’s all the more notable given that Altuve underwent right knee surgery following the 2018 season. As for Correa, he was scratched from tonight’s lineup due to discomfort in his ribs and is being evaluated back in Houston. President of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow downplayed the potential for a serious issue, however, stating that he doesn’t expect either issue to be a long-term problem (Twitter link via the Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome). It’s possible that either could be out “a couple weeks,” per Luhnow, although obviously an exact timeline is impossible to gauge until the medical staff has completed its tests.

Some more injury notes from around the league…

  • The Pirates announced that right-hander Jordan Lyles exited tonight’s game due to hamstring discomfort. Lyles has been one of the best one-year signings of this past offseason, but he struggled through a second straight rough Tuesday, surrendering three runs on three hits and a pair of walks in four innings of work. Though his last two outings haven’t been sharp, Lyles still boasts a 3.09 ERA, 9.1 K/, 3.1 BB/9, 0.81 HR/9 and a 43.1 percent ground-ball rate in 55 1/3 innings. The Pirates have placed Jameson Taillon, Chris Stratton and Keone Kela on the injured list in May. If he requires a trip to the IL, the Bucs could turn back to top prospect Mitch Keller, who was recalled for a spot start yesterday but optioned back today.
  • Giants right-hander Nick Vincent exited tonight’s game with trainers, and The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly notes (via Twitter) that Vincent was motioning toward his neck/collarbone area as he departed the game. He’s been used heavily by the Giants, frequently pitching two- or more innings at a time. Prior to the 2019 season, Vincent had never thrown more than 64 2/3 innings in a Major League season, but he’s already up to 30 2/3 frames on the year. Correlation certainly doesn’t equate to causation in this instance, but the uptick in workload is at least worth a mention. Vincent looked like a potential trade chip less than three weeks ago, as he had a 2.25 ERA and a 25-to-6 K/BB ratio in 24 innings back on May 10. Since then, he’s surrendered 13 runs in his past four appearances — a span of just 6 2/3 innings.
  • It appears there’s some concern regarding young Blue Jays right-hander Sean Reid-Foley, as Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com tweets that Reid-Foley exited Tuesday’s start for Triple-A Buffalo in what looked to be “a lot of discomfort.” The former second-round pick loaded the bases and walked in a run before exiting the game with a member of the Bisons’ training staff. Reid-Foley has had a tough season in Buffalo so far, entering play Tuesday with a 6.60 ERA through 45 inning of work. To his credit, he’s picked up 50 strikeouts in that time, but he’s also issued 34 walks, hit four batters and thrown four wild pitches. [Update: Chisholm tweets that the Jays are calling the injury a back strain but hopeful that he can avoid even missing a start in Buffalo.]

Sonny Gray Looks Reborn

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Two years after the Athletics chose Sonny Gray 18th overall in the 2011 draft, the right-hander made his major league debut at the age of 23 and quickly became one of the game’s premier young hurlers. From 2013-15, a 491-inning span, Gray posted the majors’ 10th-lowest ERA (2.88), 11th-best groundball percentage (54.2) and 31st-ranked FIP (3.36) among starters. Gray was a front-end rotation piece at that point, but injury issues helped knock him off the rails in 2016. Gray rebounded a season later, but the Athletics elected to cash him and his remaining year and a half of control in at that July’s trade deadline.

The A’s sent Gray to the Yankees in what became a failed union between him and New York. In 2018 – Gray’s lone full season with the club – he produced abysmal results at the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium, where he ran up a 6.98 ERA as batters teed off on him for a .318/.406/.527 line. Gray’s struggles convinced the Yankees to pull him from their rotation during the summer and then leave him off their playoff roster in the fall.

It quickly became obvious in the offseason the Yankees would move on from Gray, who general manager Brian Cashman admitted needed a change of scenery. In January, three-plus months after Cashman telegraphed Gray’s exit, he traded the 29-year-old to the starter-starved Reds.

Before Gray ever threw a pitch in a Cincinnati uniform, the team signed him to a three-year, $30.5MM extension to prevent him from testing free agency during the upcoming winter. Well, two months into the season, that contract looks like a steal. Gray has come back with a vengeance as a member of the Reds, with whom he has posted a 3.54 ERA/2.99 FIP through 56 innings. Along the way, Gray has registered career bests in strikeout rate (10.29 per nine), groundball percentage (55.9), infield fly percentage (10.8) and contact rate (73.7 percent). Furthermore, even though Gray ranks near the bottom of the league in strike percentage for the second straight year, he has decreased his walk rate 2018 (from 3.94 to 3.54). He has also given up home runs on just 10.8 percent of fly balls, down from a combined 15.3 percent from 2016-18.

It’s probably fair to credit some of Gray’s revival to Reds pitching coach Derek Johnson, who was also Gray’s pitching coach at Vanderbilt, though his impact is difficult to quantify. It seems to have helped that Gray has moved back to his high-spin four-seam fastball, a pitch the Yankees discouraged from throwing. Gray has gone to the pitch 37.7 percent of the time this year after throwing it at a 26.5 percent clip in 2018. But it’s Gray’s slider and sinker – offerings he has used at a combined 38.1 percent rate – that have been his most effective pitches this year, per Statcast. Hitters have mustered a horrid .102 weighted on-base average against Gray’s slider and a weak .260 mark off his sinker. All told, Gray’s expansive repertoire has limited batters to a .278 wOBA, which is right in line with his .272 xwOBA. Both of those figures are roughly 50-point improvements from the numbers Gray recorded in those categories during his forgettable 2018 as a Yankee.

Thanks in no small part to Gray’s resurgence, the Reds’ rotation has leapt from horrid to good in a year. Last season’s staff hung out at the bottom of the league’s pitching leaderboard, whereas Gray & Co. entered Tuesday fourth in ERA and fWAR. If not for the Reds’ disappointing offense, albeit one that’s throttling the Pirates at the moment, perhaps they’d be serious playoff contenders.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rajai Davis Clears Waivers

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May 28: Davis went unclaimed on waivers, per Matt Ehalt of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link). He’d have the option to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency if he chooses.

May 26: The Mets have designated outfielder Rajai Davis for assignment, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com tweets. His 25-man roster spot will go to outfielder Michael Conforto, who’s back after a stint on the seven-day concussion injured list.

This marks a quick and unceremonious end to Davis’ time on the Mets’ 40-man roster, though they’re hopeful he’ll stay in the organization, per DiComo. New York selected Davis from Triple-A Syracuse on Wednesday, and the 38-year-old went on to belt a three-run home run in his first plate appearance with the team that night – a 6-1 win over the Nationals. Davis totaled another six trips to the plate in his ensuing three appearances, collecting one hit.

Davis’ bat has never been his main selling point, as he has largely mustered below-average offense across several stops since his major league career began in 2006. But Davis has often been an asset as a defender and especially as a base runner, having picked up 415 stolen bases in the majors. Despite his age, Davis has continued to show off his speed at Syracuse this season with 14 steals, and he’s only a year removed from swiping 21 bags with the Indians.

While it’s unfortunate for Davis that he’s entering DFA limbo, swapping him for Conforto is a massive upgrade for the Mets. Conforto batted a tremendous .271/.406/.521 (150 wRC+) with nine HRs in 180 PA before going on the IL. It proved to be a short absence for the 26-year-old Conforto, whose return is especially important to a Mets team that has recently lost notable offensive pieces Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo and Robinson Cano to injuries.

Tigers Sign Frank Schwindel To Minor League Deal

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The Tigers have signed first baseman Frank Schwindel to a minor league contract, as first reported by Roster Roundup (Twitter link).

Schwindel, 26, is no stranger to the American League Central, having spent the first six full seasons of his career in the Royals organization. Schwindel actually broke camp with the Royals in 2019 and made his Major League debut in March, but he was given just 15 plate appearances over the course of six games before being optioned back to Triple-A and ultimately designated for assignment.

A career .293/.330/.499 hitter in 1038 Triple-A plate appearances, Schwindel is fresh off a 24-homer campaign in Omaha last season. He’ll give the Tigers some depth at what has been a weak point in the organization. There’s no immediate need at the big league level with Miguel Cabrera and John Hicks holding down the position, but Schwindel will presumably head to Triple-A Toledo and receive fairly regular playing time. In the event of an injury to one of Cabrera or Hicks, he could resurface with his former division rivals. Alternatively, given that the Tigers don’t have an established designated hitter anymore following Victor Martinez’s retirement, Schwindel could earn a look in that role if he impresses in Toledo.

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