Archives for May 2019

Reds Claim Ruben Alaniz

By Jeff Todd | May 31, 2019 at 12:54pm CDT

The Reds have claimed righty Ruben Alaniz off waivers from the Mariners, per an announcement from the Seattle club. It’s not yet clear what the M’s will do with the open 40-man slot.

Alaniz, who’s closing in on his 28th birthday, was knocked around in four outings earlier this year for Seattle. He signed a MLB pact despite qualifying as a minor-league free agent at the end of the 2018 season.

Things haven’t gone well this year at Triple-A, either. He has shown better there in the past, however. In 100 2/3 total frames at the highest level of the minors, Alaniz carries a 4.02 ERA with 11.0 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9.

Angels To Promote Jose Suarez

By Steve Adams | May 31, 2019 at 12:00pm CDT

The Angels will promote one of their top pitching prospects this weekend when 21-year-old lefty Jose Suarez takes the hill for his MLB debut on Sunday, as first reported by Halos Prospects (Twitter link).

Suarez is currently ranked as the game’s No. 97 overall prospect by Baseball America and No. 79 overall at Fangraphs. The Venezuelan-born southpaw soared through three levels in the minors in 2018, pitching to a combined 3.92 ERA with 10.9 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 through 117 innings. He’s only appeared in five games (four starts) so far in 2019, all of which have come at the Triple-A level. In 23 innings, he’s worked to a 3.91 ERA with a 20-to-11 K/BB ratio and a 42.9 percent ground-ball rate. He’s averaged nearly 10 strikeouts per nine innings pitched throughout his minor league career.

When he arrives on the scene, Suarez will at least temporarily join the Angels’ other top pitching prospect, right-hander Griffin Caning, in the big league rotation. If nothing else, it’s an exciting pair of arms for Halos fans to dream upon as the rest of the rotation deals with familiar injury issues and some poor showings from offseason signees.

The Angels entered the season hopeful that better health from their in-house arms and the winter signings of Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill to one-year pacts would yield better results than they’d gotten in recent seasons. Instead, both Harvey (currently on the injured list) and Cahill have earned run averages north of 6.00. Meanwhile, left-hander Andrew Heaney, arguably the team’s most talented starter, has made just one appearance after otherwise spending the season on the IL himself.

Struggles from the rotation have been a key factor — but not the only factor — in another lackluster start for the Angels, who currently sit at 27-29. They’re trailing the division-leading Astros by a 9.5-game margin but could still have Wild Card aspirations, as the AL Wild Card race is currently rife with mediocrity. The Rays and Yankees are currently only separated by a half game in the AL East, but whichever falls back to the Wild Card spot on a given day has a stranglehold on the first of the two AL slots. At the moment, that’s the 35-19 Rays, who have a seven-game lead over the two teams tied for the second position.

The Blue Jays Should Soon Have Starters For Sale

By Steve Adams | May 31, 2019 at 11:06am CDT

It almost goes without saying that once the draft passes, teams shift their focus to the summer trade market. It happens every season, and there’s plenty of speculation that this year’s One True Trade Deadline will spur teams into action a bit sooner than in years past. It’s only logical, as clubs now know they won’t be able to augment their roster in August.

Nary a season goes by where pitching isn’t in extreme demand on the midseason market, and Madison Bumgarner’s impending free agency (paired with the Giants’ generally poor play) has fans of pitching-needy clubs frothing at the mouth as the wonder where the postseason legend will land and what he’ll net the Giants. But Bumgarner isn’t the only near-lock to be traded in the next two calendar months.

The Blue Jays are widely expected to field offers for both Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez, and The Athletic’s Jayson Stark even wrote today that Toronto has “signaled they could be aggressive” in trying to move both. For a team in their position, there’s little reason to hang onto the duo beyond the 2019 season and plenty of reason to explore the market earlier rather than later. The Jays aren’t contending this season, both starters are healthy, and it’s unlikely that an additional month is going to dramatically alter a rival team’s evaluation of the righties.

That’s not to say they’re going to shove the pair out the door, but the Jays are also surely cognizant of the fact that an interested buyer would be willing to part with more for Stroman’s final 17 to 18 starts of the season than they would for his final 10 to 11 starts of the season — the difference between a mid-June swap and a late-July swap. Of particular note in this instance, both Stroman and Sanchez are controlled through 2020.

Stroman, 28, is earning $7.4MM in 2019 — an eminently affordable sum when considering the fact that he’s thrown 69 innings with a 2.74 ERA, 7.4 K/9, 3.4 BB/9 and a sizable 57.6 percent ground-ball rate. That grounder rate is in elite territory already, but it’s actually down a bit for Stroman, who has topped 60 percent in each of the four prior seasons. He’s among baseball’s premier ground-ball specialists and, after an injury-wrecked 2018 campaign looks to be back on track — if not better than ever.

Stroman’s 10.4 percent swinging-strike rate is the best of his career, and his 30 percent chase rate on pitches out of the zone is his second-best mark. He’s throwing his slider more often than ever before and doing so quite effectively, which may explain the uptick in whiffs and the slight downgrade in grounders. Stroman has never limited home runs better than he has so far in 2019 (0.65 HR/9), and Statcast pegs his expected weighted on-base average at a career-best .304. No one is going to mistake Stroman for a shutdown ace, but pitchers of his caliber are still difficult to come by midseason — particularly when they’re more than just a rental piece.

As for Sanchez, the 26-year-old may never again match his peak 2016 form and will always come with concerns surrounding the blister and fingernail issues he cannot seem to escape. He exited his last outing with a fingernail issue, in fact, but there’s no indication he’s headed for the injured list. Sanchez is also throwing his breaking ball at a career-high rate and, like Stroman, has enjoyed a career-high swinging-strike rate (plus a career-best 8.4 K/9). Sanchez’s control has been wobbly in the seasons since his 2016 All-Star season (5.0 BB/9 over his past 201 innings), but he’d be more affordable than his teammate both in terms of salary ($3.9MM) and prospect cost.

A team might be able to dream on that ’16 season and hope that some mechanical tweaks can help to improve upon his control, but the aforementioned finger issues will also be considered when determining what to surrender. So far in 2019, Sanchez has a 3.75 ERA in 60 innings, though his control troubles lead fielding-independent metrics to peg him more in the mid-4.00s. He’s not a Stroman-level grounder specialist, but he’s above average in that regard (51.2 percent in 2019; 54.1 percent career).

While both hurlers will generate their share of interest, Stroman should have the broader appeal and bring in a larger return. In fact, while the most frequent pitcher mentioned by fans in our weekly MLBTR chats is without question Bumgarner, it’s arguable that Stroman is even more appealing than the Giants’ lefty when looking at the total package. He’s earning $4.6MM less in 2019, controlled for an additional season and, over the past three years, has thrown more innings with similar results. The two pitchers get those results in different ways — Bumgarner more through punchouts and pristine control; Stroman through extreme grounders and limiting homers — but both are generally quality arms.

This needn’t turn into a debate over who is the better target (though feel free to do so if you wish). The broader point that’s worth underscoring is that the Jays will have a pair of very available arms in the near future — including a pitcher who figures to be among the more desirable targets on the market this summer. For a team that’s building around a nucleus of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and other young players (Cavan Biggio, Bo Bichette, etc.), having two controllable starters — and a very good closer — ready to sell to the highest bidder puts the organization in position to further add some exciting pieces to that emerging core.

Reds Add Eric Stout On Minor League Deal

By Steve Adams | May 31, 2019 at 9:25am CDT

The Reds have purchased the contract of left-hander Eric Stout from the Kansas City T-Bones of the independent American Association, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan reports (via Twitter). The team has yet to announce the move or the affiliate to which Stout will report.

Stout, 26, made his MLB debut with the Royals last season after spending four years in their minor league system. He appeared in just three games and struggled, allowing a pair of homers in his 2 1/3 innings of work, but Stout has a solid track record in the upper minors. A 13th-round draft pick back in 2014, the lefty joins the Reds organization with a career 3.76 ERA, 7.2 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in 124 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level. He had a 13-to-3 K/BB ratio through nine innings in his brief time with the T-Bones this year.

Stout spent Spring Training 2019 with the Padres organization but wasn’t able to secure a spot on the big league roster and was given his release at the end of camp. He’s worked primarily as a reliever in his career, and lefty relief has been a weak point in Cincinnati this season beyond the excellent Amir Garrett. Wandy Peralta (recently optioned) and offseason signee Zach Duke (on the IL) have both struggled, while Brandon Finnegan has yet to pitch for an affiliate. Ian Krol has had a nice season with the Reds’ Triple-A affiliate in Louisville thus far and could eventually emerge in the Majors as a second lefty option, and Stout will add another depth piece to that mix.

Rangers Notes: Odor, Gallo, Heineman

By Steve Adams | May 31, 2019 at 7:12am CDT

Rougned Odor’s persistent offensive struggles have become difficult to overlook, but it doesn’t sound as though there’s much thought to benching him or sending him down to Triple-A for a reset. Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram writes that while veteran Logan Forsythe and journeyman Danny Santana have each outperformed Odor, manager Chris Woodward continued to support his struggling second baseman this week. “I would only make that decision if I thought Rougie was to the point where, ‘I can’t do it anymore.’ If he lost hope,” said Woodward of Odor, who is hitting just .161/.231/.329 through 170 plate appearances. “If he keeps fighting the way he does, I feel like I’ve got to support that.” The fact that Odor inked a seven-year, $49.5MM contract on the heels of a 33-homer campaign in 2016 surely plays into the calculus as well, of course. He’s being paid $7.5MM this season and still owed $36MM from 2020-22 (including a buyout on a 2023 option) under the terms of that ill-fated deal.

James McCann: Offensive Force?

By Connor Byrne | May 31, 2019 at 1:51am CDT

A few weeks into last offseason, the White Sox parted with their 2017-18 primary catcher, Omar Narvaez, sending him to the Mariners for reliever Alex Colome on Nov. 30. The White Sox found Narvaez’s replacement a couple weeks later when they signed former Tigers starting backstop James McCann to a one-year, $2.5MM deal. In other words, a franchise mired in a 10-year playoff drought paid a minimal cost for an unexciting (maybe even bad) major leaguer. You’re forgiven if you couldn’t have cared less at the time.

Five-plus months later, Chicago’s decision to buy low on McCann looks like one of one of the shrewdest of the winter. The 28-year-old has been an absolute hitting machine as a member of the White Sox, with whom he has slashed .346/.384/.523 (145 wRC+) in 138 plate appearances. Based on wRC+, McCann has been in the same league as franchise catchers Gary Sanchez (154) and Willson Contreras (152) in overall offensive production. It’s a stunning rise for McCann, whom the Tigers non-tendered in November in lieu of paying a projected $3.5MM in arbitration.

McCann can now take solace in the fact that he has been a revelation with division-rival Chicago this year while Detroit’s catchers have been dreadful. That said, the Tigers weren’t crazy for letting him go. McCann was a useful regular for the Tigers once – in 2017 – but still didn’t manage world-beating offensive production that year. His Tigers tenure, which spanned from 2014-18, concluded with a .240/.288/.366 line (76 wRC+) and minus-0.2 fWAR in 1,646 trips to the plate. That’s bad. Defensively, McCann did throw out between 30 and 45 percent of base runners in each of his seasons in the Motor City. That’s good. But he floundered as a pitch framer and blocker. That’s bad.

What we know is that McCann has thrived as a White Sox after he did no such thing as a Tiger. The question is whether he’s born anew in a different uniform, if it’s just a two-month blip or something in between. First of all, he’s not going to sustain this kind of offensive production. He didn’t really walk in Detroit and hasn’t in Chicago either, having recorded rates in the 5 percent range with both teams. McCann’s also not going to keep up a .435 batting average on balls in play, especially considering his lifetime mark is .309. Plus, as someone who currently has four home runs and has never topped 13 in a full season, he won’t make up for his inevitable drop in average with a significant power surge.

While the above paragraph paints a bleak picture, all hope isn’t lost for McCann, who has cut his strikeout and chase rates by roughly 3 percent and elevated his contact rate by about 2 percent. He has also made more meaningful contact, evidenced in part by a noticeable rise in isolated power. McCann put up an unimposing .126 ISO with the Tigers, including a woeful .094 last year, though he’s running a career-high .183 in the category this season. FanGraphs indicates McCann has slashed his soft contact rate by almost 6 percent, while Statcast shows his average exit velocity has hopped from 87.5 mph to 90.5. Statcast also credits McCann with a .347 expected weighted on-base average. That’s a hefty 48 points below his real wOBA (.395), but it’s still 24 points above average and more than respectable for a catcher.

The right-handed McCann has done a lot of his 2019 damage against same-sided pitchers, which is noteworthy in his case because they’ve typically stymied him. When Chicago added McCann, it couldn’t have expected him to suddenly prove capable of handling righties. He has so far, though, and his offensive strides have come with improved defense. Not only has McCann continued to stop would-be base thieves at a high rate (35 percent), but he has been a scratch overall defensive player after grading out as one of the league’s worst catchers in 2018, according to Baseball Prospectus. If that’s not enough, McCann has developed a solid rapport with potential ace Lucas Giolito.

Adding everything up, it’s clear the McCann signing has worked out brilliantly for the White Sox. He has already given Chicago 1.6 fWAR, double his previous career high, and could remain in the team’s plans beyond this season. Once the 2019 campaign finishes, the Sox will have to decide whether to tender McCann a contract for his final year of arbitration eligibility. It would be a no-brainer decision right now. However, in the seemingly improbable event McCann’s overall production careens off a cliff, the club will be able to move on without any damage.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Checking In On Last Year’s Toughest Outs

By Connor Byrne | May 30, 2019 at 11:59pm CDT

If you’re an offensive player in baseball, there is nothing more important than avoiding outs. Common sense indicates the more you get on base – whether with a hit, a walk or a hit by a pitch – the better your team’s chances are of scoring and ultimately winning. That’s why on-base percentage is more useful than batting average or slugging percentage, two other conventional stats that help define a hitter’s value.

Just six qualified hitters reached the .400-OBP mark in 2018. The group included the best player in baseball, another potential Hall of Famer, each league’s MVP, an elite hitter who helped his team to a championship and a potential star in the making. Let’s take a look at how that six-man club is doing in 2019…

Mike Trout, Angels (2018 OBP: .460):

Here’s the “best player in baseball” mentioned above. The 27-year-old Trout has reached 45.5 percent of the time through 231 plate appearances, putting him right in line with last year’s league-best effort. He’s also on track for his fifth straight season with at least a .400 OBP. Trout was a .312 hitter in 2018 who walked 20.4 percent of the time. His average has noticeably dropped (to .283), but his walk rate is up a bit and opposing pitchers have helped Trout’s cause by already hitting him six times. He wore 10 pitches last year in 378 more PA.

Mookie Betts, Red Sox (2018 OBP: .438):

Betts got on base a bit less than Trout last season, but the Boston superstar led the sport in fWAR en route to AL MVP honors. While Betts hasn’t been quite as sharp this year, he has still avoided outs at a phenomenal clip (.400 in 255 trips to the plate). The 26-year-old has walked 14-plus percent of the time for the second consecutive season, but a 55-point decline in batting average (.346 to .291) and a 54-point BABIP drop (.368 to .314) have hurt his OBP. Plus, Betts isn’t on pace to match the eight HBPs he totaled in 2018, having picked up only two so far.

Joey Votto, Reds (2018 OBP: .417):

Votto’s the “potential Hall of Famer” named in the opening. The hitting savant has managed a remarkable .424 OBP dating back to his 2007 debut, in part because he has drawn nearly as many walks as strikeouts. However, that hasn’t been the case in 2019. Now in his age-35 season, Votto’s walk rate is at a pedestrian-by-his-standards 11.6 percent – down nearly 5 points from his career mark – while his strikeouts have soared. Putting the ball in play less helps explain why Votto, a lifetime .309 hitter, has only mustered a .242 average this season. Worse, Statcast credits Votto with a .229 expected average, indicating a rebound may not be on the way. Despite his newfound woes, Votto has still put up an above-average .340 OBP in 215 PA this year, but it’s nothing to get excited about in the venerable first baseman’s case.

Brandon Nimmo, Mets (2018 OBP: .404):

Nimmo’s far and away the least accomplished member of this list, but that doesn’t take away that the 26-year-old was a stupendous offensive player in 2018. As only a .264 hitter, though, his high OBP came thanks in part to a league-leading 22 HBPs over 433 PA. Nimmo has not been a magnet for pitches this year, however, having taken three in 130 trips to the plate. He’s also batting a mere .200 and has seen his BABIP fall from .351 to .288. Nimmo is collecting walks at a terrific clip (16.1 percent), but his .344 OBP is still a 60-point drop-off from last season.

Christian Yelich, Brewers (2018 OBP: .402):

We arrive at the other MVP on this list. What’s Yelich, 26, doing for an encore? Well, he ranks third in the majors in OBP (.425), in part because his walk rate has climbed from 10.4 percent to 15.1. Yelich has also logged a .314 average even though his BABIP has sunk 87 points since last year.

J.D. Martinez, Red Sox (2018 OBP: .402):

Martinez, described above as “an elite hitter who helped his team to a championship,” has been closer to very good than great this season. A .375 BABIP/.330 average helped drive Martinez’s OBP last season, but he’s at .315/.298 in those categories through 219 PA this season. Consequently, the 31-year-old has “only” reached base 37.9 percent of the time. But Martinez is striking out a lot less, which bodes well, and Statcast puts his expected average at .321. Another .400-OBP season certainly isn’t out of the question for Martinez.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Boras: Dallas Keuchel Will Be Ready Quickly

By Connor Byrne | May 30, 2019 at 10:38pm CDT

Free-agent left-hander Dallas Keuchel hasn’t pitched in a major league game since last October and didn’t participate in spring training. As a result, there’s plenty of concern over how fast Keuchel will be ready to join a team when he ends his months-long stay on the open market and signs. But clubs shouldn’t worry about Keuchel’s preparedness, according to agent Scott Boras, who told Jon Morosi of MLB.com on Thursday that his client could be good to pitch within approximately a week of signing.

Keuchel has been throwing a 95- to 104-pitch sim game every five days to stay in shape, Boras said. We’ve heard that before (links here), but the potential one-week time frame is a new development. However, it’s likely worth taking with a grain of salt. For one, it’s not unusual for Boras to publicly talk up a client. Beyond that, it would be reasonable for Keuchel’s next employer to prefer for the 31-year-old to embark on a short minor league tuneup. Doing so would give Keuchel an opportunity to pitch in a real game (or games) before he potentially impacts a major league pennant race.

Keuchel has garnered plenty of big-game experience, including with the World Series-winning Astros in 2017, and carries a tremendous regular-season track record going back to his 2014 breakout. Nevertheless, the 2015 AL Cy Young winner hasn’t been able to find a team since free agency opened last Oct. 29. Free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel is in the same boat, but it’s one that figures to finally reach shore soon.

After midnight on June 2, the day before the draft begins, teams will be able to sign Keuchel or Kimbrel without having to pay anything other than money. Clubs would have to surrender draft compensation before then, which has helped lead to this impasse between MLB and the two high-profile free agents.

Mets Notes: Potential Sellers, Alonso, Lugo

By Connor Byrne | May 30, 2019 at 9:57pm CDT

The latest out of Queens…

The Mets started 2019 in solid fashion, sitting a season-high five games over .500 through 13 contests, but have stumbled over the past month and a half. Now in possession of a 27-28 record, the Mets should consider an aggressive teardown if they’re not in contention around the July 31 trade deadline, Buster Olney of ESPN opines. By going in that direction, Olney notes the Mets would mimic the 2015 Padres – a team that tried to contend, wound up failing miserably and then traded away several big-name acquisitions within the next year (Craig Kimbrel, Justin Upton and James Shields among them). San Diego general manager A.J. Preller’s decision to pivot toward a rebuild helped the Padres construct an elite pool of young talent that has begun paying enormous dividends at the major league level. If Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen takes a similar route sometime soon, Olney names closer Edwin Diaz and the right-handed starter trio of Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler as players he could market in an effort to add more high-end youth to the organization.
Of course, New York’s not devoid of young, impact talent in the bigs. First baseman Pete Alonso, he of the .264/.338/.624 line (151 wRC+) with 19 home runs in 222 plate appearances, is a testament to that. The 23-year-old may be on his way to top rookie honors in the National League, but his journey to the majors wasn’t easy, as Tim Britton of The Athletic details. Alonso first joined the organization as the 64th pick of the 2016 draft, and Britton – with help from Alonso, his father and multiple Mets scouts – revisits that event and many other moments that led to it.
The Mets are likely to activate reliever Seth Lugo from the 10-day injured list Friday, Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News suggests. Lugo went to the IL on May 20 with right shoulder tendinitis, which has left New York’s disappointing bullpen without arguably its best setup man. The 29-year-old Lugo, a former starter, broke out as a late-game force in 2018 and has since pitched to a 2.30 ERA/2.97 FIP with 8.73 K/9, 2.53 BB/9 and a 47.3 percent groundball rate in 78 1/3 relief innings.

Quick Hits: 2009 Draft, Trout, Morton, Twins, Bradley, Marlins

By Mark Polishuk | May 30, 2019 at 9:20pm CDT

Stephen Strasburg generated headlines as the consensus first overall pick of the 2009 draft, though that draft has taken on a different historic import almost ten years later, as that was the night Mike Trout officially became a Major League player. MLB.com’s Jim Callis looks back at the 2009 draft with a decade of hindsight, re-drafting the first round with the top players who were selected (and signed contracts) from that year’s class. In this scenario, the Nationals take Trout first overall instead of Strasburg, who falls to the Pirates with the fourth overall pick. The Mariners take Nolan Arenado with the second pick, while the Padres take Paul Goldschmidt third overall.

The actual draft spots of these superstars (Trout went 25th overall, Arenado in the second round, and Goldschmidt not until the eighth round) is indicative of the draft’s unpredictable nature, as teams and pundits simply never know which unheralded youngster might develop into a gem. Callis includes several interesting notes and scouting opinions about various players at the time of the 2009 draft, including the item that only the Athletics, Diamondbacks, and Tigers were known to be linked to Trout, among teams who had a chance to select him before the Angels. Many clubs didn’t have interest due to rumors that Trout was seeking a $2.5MM draft bonus, which would’ve exceeded the slot price for all but the top five picks, though in the end Trout signed with the Angels for the $1.215MM league-recommended slot price attached to the 25th overall selection.

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