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Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Dodgers

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This is the final post in MLBTR’s annual series reviewing the offseason efforts of every team in baseball.

The 2018-19 offseason marked yet another winter of measured free-agent spending and luxury-tax-motivated trades for the Andrew Friedman-led Dodgers.

Major League Signings

Trades and Waiver Claims

Extensions

  • Clayton Kershaw: One year, $28MM (bringing his total contract to three years, $93MM)

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

[Dodgers organizational depth chart][Dodgers payroll information]

Needs Addressed

We’ve reached the point where it should be accepted that despite their extraordinarily deep pockets, the Dodgers aren’t going to flex their financial might to their fullest extent. That’s not a knock on the organization, which has been extremely successful under the current ownership group and front office regime, but simply an acknowledgement that the team’s days of MLB-leading payrolls look to be a thing of the past.

At the outset of free agency, we at MLBTR predicted that the Dodgers, who dipped under the luxury tax line in 2018, would be the team to agree to a lengthy contract with Bryce Harper. That was never particularly close to happening, as the Dodgers sought to sign Harper to a record-shattering annual value but only on a four- or five-year deal. Perhaps, if they can find a free agent amenable to such a structure in the future, the Dodgers will exceed the luxury line again, but it was reported this offseason that the organization has drawn up plans to avoid doing so for the next several seasons. The trade of Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, Alex Wood and Kyle Farmer to the Reds in exchange for Homer Bailey — whom they immediately released — and a pair of prospects meshed with that directive.

The Dodgers’ first order of business this winter came in the form of finding a middle ground with Clayton Kershaw, who could have opted out of the remaining two years and $65MM on his contract. An extension was long viewed as a strong possibility, and in the end, the Dodgers locked up Kershaw on a deal even friendlier than many expected. Kershaw tacked an extra year and $28MM onto his preexisting deal in exchange for forgoing his opt-out provision, allowing the club to maintain one of the generation’s most dominant pitchers at an affordable rate. Injuries have begun to take their toll on Kershaw, and he’ll probably never sustain the level of dominance he once did, but there’s no denying his ongoing excellence when he’s been healthy enough to take the mound. A $31MM annual rate is nearly as steep as it gets for a pitcher in baseball, but Kershaw notched a 2.73 ERA in 161 1/3 innings and was worth 3.3 WAR (per both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference) in last year’s “down” season.

With Kershaw taken care of, the Dodgers began eyeing upgrades elsewhere on the roster. Rather than earnestly pursue the market’s top names, the Dodgers were aggressive in the second tier of free agency. A.J. Pollock was arguably the best non-Harper outfielder on the market and was compensated as such ($55MM in guaranteed money), while the flamethrowing Joe Kelly was regarded as one of the top non-Craig Kimbrel relievers. (His addition hasn’t paid early dividends, but Kelly’s .410 BABIP will regress over time, and metrics like xFIP (3.13) and SIERA (3.27) point to brighter days ahead.) Both were brought in on contracts with manageable annual salaries for a team with pockets this deep.

Having issued Yasmani Grandal a qualifying offer he unsurprisingly rejected, the Dodgers were involved in the J.T. Realmuto market for much of the offseason. Los Angeles, however, wasn’t willing to meet the prospect price tag put on Realmuto by the Marlins and instead shifted focus to old friend Russell Martin. While Martin’s bat is nowhere near what it once was, he maintained an elite walk rate and framing skills in 2018.

The other qualifying offer issued by the Dodgers went to lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu, who accepted the $17.9MM payday rather than test his strong but injury-riddled track record on the open market. At the time, it was at least worth wondering whether a team might’ve committed multiple years and a slightly higher guarantee (at a lower annual rate) to Ryu. However, given the manner in which the offseason played out, Ryu has to be quite happy with his decision to remain in Los Angeles at a premium rate. His return gave the Dodgers an even more enviable collection of rotation depth, joining Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Kenta Maeda, Rich Hill, Julio Urias and Ross Stripling (among others).

Corey Seager’s return to the lineup only bolstered the Dodgers’ offensive potential, and Alex Verdugo’s ascension up the minor league ladder gives the Dodgers another high-upside bat upon which to dream. Verdugo’s rise (and the signing of Pollock) allowed L.A. to at least explore the possibility of trading Joc Pederson this winter, with the Braves and White Sox among the rumored suitors. However, there was apparently never anything that convinced the Dodgers to take the plunge, and Pederson remains on hand as part of a roster that features largely unmatched depth in both the infield and outfield.

Questions Remaining

That’s not to say that there aren’t questions surrounding the roster even in light of a hot start to the season. The lineup is deep and more dangerous than ever thanks to Cody Bellinger doing his best Ted Williams impression, but it’s hard not to look at the pairing of Martin and Austin Barnes behind the dish and wonder whether the duo brings enough offense to the table. The asking price for Realmuto from the Dodgers was surely steep, but imagining a lineup that pairs him with this version of Bellinger and the rest of the Dodgers’ potent bats seems almost unfair to opposing pitchers. Biting that bullet could’ve made this lineup into a veritable juggernaut, and it’s not hard to see the Dodgers seeking catching help come July. Perhaps catching prospect Will Smith will be MLB-ready by that point, but that’s hardly a given.

It’s a somewhat similar tale in the bullpen, where the Dodgers have ample options but relatively little in terms of established arms. Kenley Jansen has begun to show signs that he is, in fact, human after years of unhittable ninth-inning mastery, and while Kelly was brought in as an expected top-quality setup option, the Dodgers took their typical approach of cobbling together a relief unit beyond that point. Pedro Baez has been a good but sometimes shaky option in the ’pen for years. Dylan Floro is one of the quietest bargain finds the Dodgers have made.

But the mix of JT Chargois, Scott Alexander, Caleb Ferguson, Yimi Garcia, Josh Sborz and Jaime Schultz isn’t as solid as one would expect from a team with legitimate World Series aspirations. It’s true that Julio Urias and Tony Cingrani are also factors, but durability questions with that duo are even more pronounced than with most relievers. Adding another arm to the ’pen to deepen the mix would’ve been prudent, and it seems almost inevitable that the Dodgers will be in that market a couple months from now. There’s a clear on-paper match with Craig Kimbrel, but signing him would push the team into luxury tax territory, and Kimbrel’s asking price apparently hasn’t dropped to the point where Los Angeles (or any other club) is willing to jump on board. It doesn’t seem all that likely that they’ll be the team to sign him in the end.

2019 Season Outlook

The Dodgers entered the season as clear favorites in the National League West, and a poor start to the season for their primary competitors in Denver didn’t do much to change that line of thinking. Surprisingly hot starts from the upstart Padres and the wait-aren’t-they-kind-of-rebuilding Diamondbacks have added an interesting wrinkle to the division, but the Dodgers are still pacing the group. With the talent and depth cultivated by president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and his staff, as well as that group’s willingness to make a trade to plug holes as they arise, the Dodgers are still the favorites to take the NL West. Whether they can finally get over the hump and convert a postseason berth into a World Series trophy is the true question.

How would you grade the Dodgers’ offseason? (Poll link for Trade Rumors app users)

Rockies Acquire James Pazos

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The Rockies have acquired lefty James Pazos from the Phillies, the clubs announced. Infielder Hunter Stovall is heading to the Philadelphia organization in return.

Pazos was designated for assignment recently by the Phils. He’ll head onto the Colorado 40-man roster but does not have to be added to the active roster.

Soon to turn 28, Pazos landed with the Phils in the Jean Segura swap this past offseason. Things didn’t turn out as hoped in Philadelphia, leading to a surprisingly quick DFA. He failed to win a big-league pen job after a rough camp and has continued to struggle at Triple-A to open the season.

That showing came after some curious developments last year. Pazos had previously sported 96 mph heat and a good slider, but saw the fastball velo dip even as he went to that pitch almost exclusively last year. His swinging-strike rate fell by nearly 25%.

Despite the recent issues, it’s easy to see why the Rockies decided to roll the dice. Pazos carries a 3.54 ERA through 112 MLB frames, with 9.3 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9 and a 47.8% groundball rate. He has been effective against both lefties and righties. And he’s optionable, which creates some additional flexibility.

On the other side of this swap is the 22-year-old Stovall. He was a 21st-round draft pick last year but has performed well thus far as a professional. After hitting ten home runs in 199 plate appearances at the Rookie ball level last year, he’s off to a .281/.414/.439 slash with as many walks as strikeouts (a dozen apiece) in seventy Class A plate appearances. Whether he can combine the power and patience remains to be seen.

Tigers Place Jordan Zimmermann On IL With UCL Sprain

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5:27pm: It seems as if Zimmermann is expected to be able to rehab the injury without surgery, MLB.com’s Jason Beck reports on Twitter. Team trainer Doug Teter says that the veteran will wait for five to seven days before he begins working back. It’s at least possible Zimmermann could return to the active roster within three or four weeks.

3:05pm: The Tigers announced today that righty Jordan Zimmermann has been placed on the 10-day injured list with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow. He’ll be replaced on the active roster by fellow right-hander Zac Reininger.

That’s certainly ominous news for the veteran hurler, who left his start yesterday with elbow troubles. Zimmermann is already pitching on a replacement UCL after previously undergoing Tommy John surgery. It’s not known at this point whether a surgical outcome is on the table.

Angels Place Cody Allen On 10-Day IL

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The Angels have placed reliever Cody Allen on the 10-day injured list, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register was among those to cover on Twitter. He’s said to be dealing with a lumbar spine strain, though details remain scant.

It’s one of several Halos pitching moves. Matt Ramsey was sent down on optional assignment, leaving two openings to accommodate the return of starter Tyler Skaggs and activation of Luke Bard.

Allen’s health trouble comes amidst an exceedingly rough stretch on the mound. He has issued ten walks and three home runs in nine innings thus far. In light of those figures, his 6.00 ERA actually represents a merciful series of outcomes to date.

The risks were well known to the Halos when they signed Allen to a $8.5MM contract over the winter. Long a quality closer for the Indians, Allen exhibited newfound walk and long ball issues in his final season of arbitration eligibility.

Allen will take a step back and try to sort things out. His average fastball velocity is down to 93.1 mph thus far, the fifth-straight season of year-over-year decline. He has responded by going to his curve more than ever before (48.0%), but is out of the zone more than ever before (34.9% zone%) and generating only a 10.1% swinging-strike rate (his lowest level since his debut campaign).

Nationals Place Trevor Rosenthal On Injured List

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The Nationals have placed struggling reliever Trevor Rosenthal on the 10-day injured list. He’s said to be dealing with a viral infection.

Earlier today, president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo told reporters (including Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com; Twitter link) that Rosenthal has been dealing with a stomach malady that had spurred significant weight loss and muscle fatigue. After a trip to the doctor today, the decision was made to place him on the IL.

It’d be foolish to pretend that the 28-year-old’s issues on the mound aren’t a factor here, too. He has managed to secure only nine outs in seven appearances, coughing up a dozen earned runs on seven hits and nine walks while recording three strikeouts. Though he’s sitting just below 99 mph with his fastball, Rosenthal is missing the zone far more often than he’s accustomed to and is failing entirely to entice opposing hitters to chase his offspeed offerings.

The Nats have activated Justin Miller from his own IL stint to take the active roster spot. They’ll hope that he can sort things out after a rocky start to the year and help settle a tumultuous relief corps.

Having bought some breathing room for Rosenthal, the organization can then get to work on trying to straighten him out as well. He inked a $7MM deal before the season after missing all of 2018 recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Giants Reportedly Pursuing Trade For Outfielder

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The Giants are inquiring around the league about possible outfield trade targets, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). It does not appear as if they have locked in on a particular player to this point, with the report specifying that they’re in talks with “multiple clubs.”

It’s still early, but the San Francisco organization has received little in the way of offensive production from its outfield unit. Most of the playing time has gone to youngster Steven Duggar (71 OPS+) and veterans Gerardo Parra (56) and Kevin Pillar (86).

Multiple prior trades have already contributed to the mix, including one at the beginning of the month that brought Pillar to San Francisco. Another swap landed the Giants Tyler Austin, a player they’d like to take a look at. Unfortunately, he’s struggling to get past an elbow injury.

It’s not entirely clear just what kind of player the Giants are looking for at the moment. They have taken on several unproven younger players, with Connor Joe and Michael Reed already being shown the door but Duggar and Austin still in line for opportunities. They’ve also gone with experienced options in Parra and Pillar.

The most intriguing possibility, by far, would be a surprising early-season swap in which the Giants move some of their veteran pitching for a highly promising young outfielder. That can’t be ruled out with a variety of contenders facing serious bullpen needs, though there’s no indication at the moment that a deal of real consequence is under contemplation.

Red Sox Select Josh Smith

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The Red Sox have selected the contract of righty Josh Smith, per a club announcement. He’ll make a start today for the club if the scheduled contest isn’t rained out. Reliever Travis Lakins was optioned down to open active roster space.

Smith, 31, saw 127 1/3 innings of big-league action from 2015-17 but failed to make it back up last year. He owns a 5.30 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 at the game’s highest level. (Note: another hurler by the same name also pitched in the upper minors last year with the Red Sox. He’s now with the Indians.)

Though he has never posted dominating numbers in the upper minors, Smith has struck out better than a batter per nine at the Triple-A level since the start of the 2017 season. He has racked up 23 strikeouts against five walks in 16 2/3 innings in three starts for Pawtucket to open the present season.

Blue Jays Promote Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

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April 26: The Blue Jays have made Guerrero’s promotion official. His contract has been formally selected from Triple-A Buffalo, per a team announcement. Infielder Richard Urena was optioned to Triple-A to open a spot on the active roster.

April 24: It’s celebration time in Toronto. Blue Jays manager Charlie Montoyo announced to reporters following today’s game that the organization will promote uber-prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to the Major Leagues on Friday (Twitter link via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet). He’ll make his Major League debut in Friday’ series opener against the visiting Athletics.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The promotion for Guerrero comes after nearly a year of anticipation. Outcry for the organization to promote the vaunted young slugger began last year when he was utterly laying waste to Double-A pitching as a 19-year-old. Guerrero logged a laughable .402/.449/.671 slash in 266 plate appearances at the Double-A level before moving up to Triple-A where he posted a similarly ridiculous .336/.414/.564 slash. That otherworldly performance, at such a young age, unsurprisingly made Guerrero the No. 1 overall prospect on the rankings of Baseball America, MLBPipeline.com, Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus.

Toronto, however, has been determined to push back Guerrero’s free agency as far as is reasonably possible. For Guerrero, that meant being passed over for a September call-up despite a dominant season in the upper minors, and it surely would have meant he’d open the season at Triple-A even were it not for an oblique injury that serendipitously gave the Jays an actual reason to keep him off the Opening Day roster.

Along the way, Jays leadership made the standard-issue vague claims about how Guerrero needed to work on his defense, his baserunning and learning to be the “best possible teammate” he could be while dodging persistent questions about manipulating Guerrero’s service time. It wasn’t even two months ago that general manager Ross Atkins made the questionable claim that he simply did “not see him as a Major League player” yet. (Guerrero, it seems, learned a lot in the 11 minor league contests he played this year.)

To be clear, the Blue Jays aren’t doing anything nefarious or against the rules; they’re exploiting a system that encourages them to make just this type of business-driven move in a year they’re not expecting to compete. The Cubs took this route with Kris Bryant, the Braves did so with Ronald Acuna Jr., and numerous other young stars have seen their arrival in the big leagues pushed back for similar reasons. It’s not a universal tactic, as evidenced by Eloy Jimenez, Pete Alonso and Fernando Tatis Jr., but it’s certainly a common one. Such service time machinations will continue to be a storyline so long as the current service time/arbitration system remains in place, though it’s possible that the league and the MLBPA will explore alterations as they work toward a new collective bargaining agreement beginning prior to the 2022 season.

Service time considerations aside, the promotion of Guerrero marks the beginning of a new era in Toronto. The majority of the core that brought the Jays to the ALCS in both 2015 and 2016 has since departed. Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, David Price, Kevin Pillar, R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle, Marco Estrada and J.A. Happ have all landed elsewhere, and it’s likely that the Jays will look into moving each of Justin Smoak, Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez this summer.

However, Guerrero is a potential cornerstone piece for the organization — one who’ll eventually be followed by the likes of Bo Bichette, Nate Pearson, Cavan Biggio and others as Toronto looks to lay a new foundation in the ever-competitive AL East. Other potential pieces of that puzzle have already begun to get a taste of the Majors, with Rowdy Tellez, Danny Jansen and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. all receiving some experience at the game’s highest level.

The position played by Guerrero in the long term is far from set in stone. While the claim that Guerrero’s need for defensive improvement was the reason for keeping him in the minors was never legitimate, questions about his glovework are valid. Scouting reports have long pegged him as a sub-par option at third base, and it’s possible he’ll have to slide across the diamond to first base or even settle in as a primary designated hitter at some point in his early or mid 20s. The Jays surely hope that his defense can improve with some help from the big league coaching staff and continued reps in the Majors, but the 6’2″, 250-pound Guerrero may simply not be a long-term option at his natural position. Regardless of his defensive upside (or lack thereof), though, Guerrero’s prodigious bat should quickly establish him as one of the game’s brightest young stars.

Given the timing of his promotion, Guerrero will be under control for the Blue Jays through at least the 2025 season, although it’s possible that the Jays will explore the same type of early-career extension the White Sox were able to achieve with Jimenez (if they haven’t already begun to do so). Guerrero will be a slam-dunk Super Two player, assuming he’s not optioned back to the minors at any point, as he’ll finish out the 2019 campaign with 158 days of service.

Nationals Promote Carter Kieboom

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April 26: The Nats have formally announced the move. Righty Koda Glover was transferred from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster.

April 25, 5:59pm: Infielder Jake Noll is in the lineup for the Nationals’ Triple-A affiliate tonight, indicating that he’ll be a corresponding 25-man roster move. The Nats will still need to clear a 40-man roster spot for Kieboom.

4:52pm: The Nationals will promote top infield prospect Carter Kieboom prior to Friday’s series opener against the Padres, reports Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. Kieboom, a top 50 league-wide prospect in the eyes of Baseball America, MLB.com, Baseball Prospectus, Fangraphs and ESPN, is not on the Nationals’ 40-man roster. A corresponding move to fit him onto the roster will be necessary.

Carter Kieboom | Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Kieboom, 21, was Washington’s top pick (No. 28 overall) in the 2016 draft. He’s hit at every level throughout his quick ascension to the big leagues, though the torrid start he’s enjoyed thus far in his first exposure to Triple-A pitching is his best work yet. Through 83 plate appearances, Kieboom has crushed opponents with a .379/.506/.636 batting line, three homers, six doubles and a triple. Since being drafted, Kieboom is a combined .286/.373/.471 hitter across all levels at which he’s played — despite the fact that he has consistently been hitting against older, more experienced pitchers.

The exact manner in which the Nationals will utilize Kieboom is not yet clear, but it stands to reason that if the Nats are calling him up this early, the plan is for him to get regular at-bats. Kieboom is a shortstop by trade but has split his time between both middle-infield positions this season. The Nats are without Trea Turner for what figures to be another couple of weeks and have been starting the light-hitting Wilmer Difo in his place, but third baseman Anthony Rendon has also been banged up and out of the lineup for a few days. Offseason signee Brian Dozier has yet to hit much, but he’ll presumably be given a longer leash to get things right.

Though the Nationals’ infield is crowded with veterans when at full strength, they’ve shown a willingness to promote prospects early in the past and carry them for the duration of the season — as was the case with Rookie of the Year runner-up Juan Soto last season. Kieboom has a long way to go before forcing the organization’s hand in that same manner, but if he’s up in the big leagues for good, the Nationals would be able to control him through the end of the 2025 season (though he’d be a slam dunk Super Two player in arbitration).

Mariners Promote Justus Sheffield, Designate Shawn Armstrong

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The Mariners announced Friday that they’ve recalled top pitching prospect Justus Sheffield for his team debut and designated righty Shawn Armstrong for assignment. Sheffield’s promotion is expected to be a short-term one, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times, who tweets that the lefty is expected to be optioned back to Triple-A Tacoma after tonight’s game. At that point, newly acquired Mike Wright will be added to the MLB roster in his place.

Sheffield, 22, has been regarded as one of the game’s top pitching prospects for the majority of his professional career. The Indians selected him with the 31st overall pick in the 2014 draft but later traded him to the Yankees alongside Clint Frazier in the trade that netted them Andrew Miller. Sheffield made his big league debut with the Yankees last September but tossed just 2 2/3 innings of relief. The Yankees flipped him to the Mariners this winter as the centerpiece of the James Paxton trade.

Per MLB.com’s Greg Johns, Sheffield won’t actually start tonight’s game; rather, he’ll follow Yusei Kikuchi in relief. Kikuchi will function as an opener in tonight’s game, pitching only one inning as part of the Mariners’ plan to acclimate the Japanese rookie to a larger workload (both in terms of volume of innings and the frequency with which he pitches as compared to Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, where starters pitch every sixth day). At some point, of course, the Mariners will take a look at Sheffield as a full-time rotation cog, though that apparently won’t come until later in the season. For now, righty Erik Swanson (also acquired from the Yankees in the Paxton swap) is getting the first look in the rotation.

The Mariners will now have a week to trade Armstrong or pass him through outright waivers. The organization likely hopes to be able to retain the 28-year-old, who was brilliant in 56 innings of Triple-A ball last season (1.77 ERA, 13.2 K/9) before posting a 1.23 ERA and a 15-to-3 K/BB ratio in 14 2/3 innings at the big league level. Armstrong has been tagged for six runs on eight hits and three walks through just 3 2/3 innings with the Mariners so far in 2019. Armstrong is out of minor league options, so any club that acquires him would have to carry him on its active roster (or else once again try to pass him through outright waivers).

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