Just a week after locking up free-agent-to-be Chris Sale with a five-year extension, the Red Sox secured long-term control over another member of their core Monday when they announced a six-year extension with shortstop Xander Bogaerts. The deal reportedly guarantees Bogaerts $120MM from 2020-25 (in even, $20MM increments) and contains a vesting option for the 2026 season. The vesting option is reportedly worth another $20MM and would kick in if Bogaerts made 535 plate appearances in 2025. Bogaerts, a client of the Boras Corporation, is also said to have received an opt-out provision after the 2022 season.
Bogaerts and the club had been in talks during the winter, and though neither side wanted negotiations to extend into the season itself, it seems things were close enough to the finish line that a deal was able to be struck just beyond Opening Day.
Bogaerts, who turned 26 last October, originally signed with Boston as a 16-year-old amateur out of his native Aruba, and quickly developed into one of baseball’s best prospects. He made a quick impact in his 2013 rookie season, helping solidify a problematic third base position for the Red Sox as the team went on to win the World Series. He didn’t fully begin to blossom until the 2015 season, and Bogaerts has gone on to generate 17.6 fWAR over the last four seasons, hitting .295/.354/.446 with 61 homers over 2588 plate appearances. This includes a career-best 23 homers, .883 OPS, and 133 wRC+ in 2018, as Bogaerts rebounded from an injury-marred 2017 campaign to help lead the Red Sox to another World Series title.
Defensively, Bogaerts has been something of a mixed bag at shortstop. The Defensive Runs Saved metric has never looked kindly on his glovework (-48 DRS) while his UZR/150 mark of -0.3 posits him as just slightly below average. There has been some speculation that Bogaerts could eventually move from shortstop, and while that change doesn’t look to be happening anytime soon, that decision could eventually hinge on Rafael Devers’ development as a third baseman, plus whether prospect Michael Chavis plays at second base, third base, or elsewhere around the diamond.
The pact between Boston and Bogaerts is just the latest in a precedent-setting number of extensions over the last few weeks, as multiple superstars (both near and far from free agency) have chosen to lock in guaranteed paydays with their current teams. Of this group, players who were going to be free agents after the 2019 season included Bogaerts, Sale, Nolan Arenado, Justin Verlander, Paul Goldschmidt, and Aaron Hicks.
It’s clear that the lack of free agent activity in the last two offseasons has influenced many of these decisions, and in Bogaerts’ case, he’ll forego entering the open market for his age-27 season. Keeping a young player who may just be entering his prime on a $20MM average annual value looks like a very solid deal for the Red Sox. Bogaerts also has the ability to opt out of the contract as he enters his age-30 season, if he feels he can top the three years and $60MM still owed to him.
For luxury tax purposes, Bogaerts’ new deal will add an even $20MM to Boston’s Competitive Balance Tax bill beginning in 2020. This is no small factor in the contract, given the rather onerous tax situation the Red Sox find themselves in, though some relief from at least the top level of the CBT structure could come as several contracts come off the books for the club next winter.
It also helps the Red Sox afford what would be their biggest extension yet — a pact with Mookie Betts before the reigning AL MVP hits free agency following the 2020 season. Betts has been firm in his desire to go year-to-year in arbitration rather than sign a long-term deal before getting his chance on the open market, so the topic of an extension could be moot, though Boston will surely continue to explore the possibility of keeping the star outfielder at Fenway Park even if a $300MM+ commitment is required. The Bogaerts and Sale extensions are evidence, if Betts needs any, that the Sox are serious about keeping this winning core of players together.
WEEI’s Evan Drellich broke the news that the two sides were close to a deal (Twitter link). ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reported the terms of the contract (Twitter links). The New York Post’s Joel Sherman reported the inclusion of the vesting option (Twitter links). MLB Network’s Jon Heyman added some details on the option and also first reported that Bogaerts had passed his physical Monday morning (Twitter links). The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier reported the final details on the vesting option, while Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com tweeted the annual breakdown.
Yankees respond by extending Didi.
Red Sox counter with a Mookie extension.
Yanks respond with Judge extension. I’d love the back and forth
They really aren’t competing at contracts. They can’t even compete with the Mariners and Orioles!
Oh who cares really what the Yankees do. This is about the Sox. That said, can’t say I’m fond of this move. Too much time commitment to a player with these kinds of questions, though they can get him off the books (his choice) in 2022.
The Yankees stopped playing the “respond to the Red Sox” game when George died. They will extend Didi if or when it suits them, it will have absolutely nothing to do with the Red Sox.
OMG YES PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!
Another stupid metrics. DRS. The old computer saying GIGO (garbage in, garbage out) applies. While he is not the best in the field, anyone who has watched the team understands he’s above average in the field and has been hurt by a lack of a defensive third baseman and Pedie’s injury at second. Bogie continues to improve at short.
Hurt by Pedroia’s absence—huh?
So basically, you’re saying on his own, he’s a bad fielder, but when he has better fielders around him, he’s good? That’s not how it works. Plus, it’s not like the metrics when Pedroia is healthy say that Xander is a good fielder. He’s average to below average.
No what I was trying to say is baseball is a team sport and those who watch instead of just reading or considering an isolated play knows how valuable he’s been.
^homer alert
Excuse me but do you know how DRS is calculated? They have scouts evaluate a play’s difficulty on a scale of 1 to 5 and then see how many times the fielder made each play. Your gripe is with ultimate zone rating, which has rated Bogarts as an average shortstop.
Lol
Just because you ‘watched’ a guy make some flashy plays doesn’t mean he’s a good fielder. Derek Jeter is statistically one of the worst to play shortstop, but everyone thinks he’s great because of some nifty plays he makes.
Lets goooooo
wow, id honestly think he’d do well on the open market. i feel like he’s on the verge of a breakout year, and the pool only thinned for great bats when Arenado was extended.
Typical for the Red Sox, extension after the season starts doesn’t effect the luxury tax.
Why do you say “typical” like it’s a bad thing?
They are #1 in payroll, pay an obscene amount of taxes, you’d try to cut every corner too.
As much as it pains me… Good for the reigning champs. Extending core, w/ max luxury tax penalties incurred.
See adrian Gonzalez extension. Less money to go to the marlins and royals and pirates who won’t spend it anyway.
If you’re looking for a team in baseball to be upset with about spending. Boston is not your team. They spend and spend and spend. You can’t say ownership isn’t putting their money out.
Giants fans thought it was great when they signed all their homegrown talent to long term contracts. Four years later we are paying for it bad. Good luck!
Only, he’s getting locked in thru his age-33 season — if he doesn’t opt out after 3 years.
May have to transition to 3B..? Cry me a river, very team-friendly, for team, deep in penalties
Bogey as a 3B is unlikely but even a 2B he’s a good deal less valuable which is why I hated him at 200MM. I think a transition to 2B is a realistic possibility at some point during this deal. But for this price it’s a very good deal for the Sox. 280/350/430 ish slash line plays all day at SS even if the power isn’t quite what it was last year.
Which it may be.
I would have said Phillies, but the point is the same. The Sox are doing a lot of free agent-hugging right now, much to the detriment of future finances and rosters. This is not a good move–right on the heels of the other bad move of extending Sale. They must see some minimum wage players in their near future–Darwinzon replaces Porcello? Dalbec/Chavis replace the 1B platoon? This is the very least they’ll have to do.
If by typical, you mean intelligent business practices…then i agree.
You no longer have to wait until the season starts to announce extensions to avoid them impacting the current season’s lux tax calculation.
And the Red Sox weren’t the only team who used to do this.
AAV for CBT purposes is based on the contract total.
If this contract supersedes his current deal and gives him a signing bonus (that would be spread out evenly over the length of the contract for these purposes) then his salary for CBT purposes would change even if it was signed in the middle of the season.
If he receives his already contracted salary for 2019 and the contract starts with next season as this one does, then it has no effect on the teams CBT salaries for this season.
“Typical for a team to make wise financial decisions”.
Rewarding him for his strong start to the season I see.
Mookie Gone. ?
Just the opposite
There is only so much money, in theory. Mookie seems to want Trout and Harper dollars and we don’t see how Boston can do that on top of big dollars going to all the other places.
And any team that gives him that is not spending wisely.
Mookie is gone
Mookie isn’t Gone, they’ll make
a Competitive 360+ Million offer
In Offseason, & if nothing gets done by the Winter Meetings.
Dombrowski will have to get a feel of trades for him, & it would instantly improve the farm system.
It’s either ReSign him, or Trade Him
There is No Option/Plan C
One year of any player hardly brings in the massive haul that would dramatically improve their farm system. Teams don’t want to pay through the nose for a one year rental, even a stud like Mookie. So that idea isn’t happening.
That’s just incorrect, the Astros made a Huge Push for Bryce Harper
Only for the Nationals FO to get spooked & not Deal Him
You sound Moronic Thinking Trading Mookie wouldn’t drastically improve a 22nd Rated Farm
by Keith Law. Who said they’ll pay through the nose for a Rental?
It’s called negotiations
He’ll 1000% be Shopped*** at the minimum if he doesn’t sign by
The 2019-2020 Winter Meetings
I look at this in the negative sense. Lessens chance of signing betts and also? probably forget about extending benintendi before the price goes way up.
That said? I DO like Bogaerts, just figure with him being a Boras guy, the price is at least market value (no known yet) and for sure, will kick them into highest luxury tax bracket, even if the Sale extension didn’t.
I don’t think it changes the luxury tax because it doesn’t change this years salary, but I may be wrong.
How? The deal is almost team friendly. 7/132 isn’t breaking the bank, if anything leaves some on the table for Benny’s extension.
7/132m wasn’t up there when started typing.. That’s a good deal IMO, 2x so considering he’s a Boras guy. Had to be some pressure on Bogaerts end to get that done. Even in this market he gets more than that hitting FA @27YO with his decent bat, playing a premium position.
Well known fact boras doesn’t like to sign before hitting FA with his guys anyway and to take a below market deal? outstanding.
Only a few guys taking less under Boras. Add Xander to the list. Here’s Weaver and a couple others I believe.
There are so many elite shortstops in baseball. 3B is more of a premium nowaday.
I don’t think there’s a rational argument that Bogaerts would beat this in free agency. If he had a good chance to beat the offer, he and Boras would try to do so. Boras has a long track record on this. This deal would be seen as an overpay without the Red Sox hyping this mediocre player.
This Mediocre Player posted a 17.5 fWAR from 2015 to 2018,
20th-most in the major leagues.
& He’s only Signed until he’s 33
I agree that I doubt he gets much more than this in today’s market. Seems like a silly extension with Betts unsigned.
If he’s pacing anywhere near that output he will opt out before the Red Sox can gain surplus value from this deal. But, neither the Red Sox nor Bogaerts expect him to do that as this deal makes clear.
Maybe, he will be only 29 when he’s able to opt out of his Deal.
That’s not that bad of an Age
for a SS
This won’t affect the 2019 luxury tax bracket, and there will be plenty of money coming off the books after this season (Panda, Porcello, etc). Letting Kimbrel walk was a small price to pay for future payroll flexibility.
As for Mookie, he’s going after the most money he can get … probably in free agency. He will be just as tough to sign no matter what they give Xander.
I view Boras deals as well above market value, but perhaps we view market value a bit differently.
Who’s ready for the 2020 offseason
Giants fans.
Hallelujah!!!!!!!
These next few free agent classes are gonna be so weak
Damn just under 19 million is a pretty good deal for them.
This upcoming off-season will be slow since there won’t be any free agents at this pace
There are still trades. Mariners are good for at least 10
What’s mookies fate after this ?
I think if I were running the sox, xander is the guy I’d let walk. Not confident he’ll live up to this one
Xander posted 17.5 fWAR from
2015 to 2018, good for 20th-most
in the MLB during that time.
& He’s durable
You see Decline? Where?
The 2019-2020 off-season has been cancelled. Spring training 2020 will be in November of 2019.
Betts seems like a sure fire candidate to test the FA market, when that time comes. He’ll likely be the best player in that market, unless something happens to detour his career. I think the BoSox see that and that they’ll likely be priced out, so they are trying to lock up others in lieu of that.
If all the guys keep taking extensions there’s going to be quite a few teams with a huge war chest to bid on Betts. I think that bodes very well for him to break the ML record for a contract. I’d say that’s almost a guarantee at this point. By how much is really the only question mark IMO.
He’s not beating Trouts deal. I don’t think he’ll even come close.
Betts? 10/360 is essentially the deal. I think it’s highly possible that gets topped. Particularly if Betts is the only superstar who is coming to FA these next few seasons. I think that’s beatable. I probably shouldn’t have said likely but I think he’s looking at the machado deal at the absolute minimum. Assuming his typical good health and continued production. He’s probably the 2nd best player in baseball.
To get that he’ll have to stay extremely healthy and consistently play at an elite level; I’m particularly skeptical he’ll do the latter.
35 WAR in his ML career. That’s more in less time than Harper or machado. Not to mention Harper didn’t need to be consistent at all to get 330 million. He’ll be right there. He’s a great baseball player.
Honestly my opinion when I saw people projecting Bogaerts at over 200MM was that it was going to be a bad deal. I don’t think he’s a 200MM player. Bogaerts really only has last year as a big season. Other than that he’s been a nice player but not an elite SS by any means. Idk if he’s the bogey of last year or closer to the guy we had seen before.
The Red Sox got a pretty big discount here relative to what people thought he was worth. They have no SS in their system so with that in mind I’d say it’s a win for them. This is about what I truly believe he’s worth.
Xander won two Silver Slugger awards prior to last season, and hit .320 one of those years. All with solid defense. As long as he stays healthy, he’ll be a bargain.
I certainly don’t think it’s a bad deal. I may undervalue Bogaerts on that team. All I’m saying is I don’t know how many contenders would’ve been in on Bogey to make his price go near that 200MM level though. If you look around the league most contenders are set at SS or can’t afford to play at that level. He’s also not a Great defensive SS which I think dings him when you’re talking about that kind of money.
Free agency is dead.
No,
It’s just changing. I think a lot of the extensions have more to do with the impending labor negotiations than with the state of free agency. Meaning, it is not that players (esp elite players) are scared of free agency. They are recognizing that the structure of player salaries is likely to fundamentally change with the next CBA (or possibly before the current one expires). And the new structure will likely shift a large percentage of a team’s payroll to younger players that are not eligible for FA yet. So, locking in an extension at near market value makes a lot of sense as they have no idea what market value will be in a couple years. They just know it is likely to be less. Maybe a lot less.
Seems like a decent deal, for less than talked about. Good to lock in a young player and help sort out what they have going forward.
20M a year for a strong offense/weak defense shortstop. Seems fair but not a great bargain by any means.
They need to sign there guys anyways. They don’t really have any reinforcements coming up from the farm anytime soon so they need to keep them no matter the price.
There’s still free agents or other means of acquiring talent. They definitely don’t need to keep guys no matter the price. That’s a good way to sink the team real fast and end up like SF. When the price is reasonable as if was for their last 2 extensions, sure.
You continually ding the Sox farm system as weak, even tho it has made huge strides since the Sale trade 2y ago that wiped out 2 top 20 BA kids swap teams and another top 50 promoted to Boston in Devers.
This team has legit kids who would have probably opened the season with so called “tanking” teams and are right at MLB ready in Darwinzon Hernandez and Michael Chavis. Tzu-Wei Lin would be on many teams and is stuck at Pawtucket. The lower and middle minors are not devoid either. tanner Houck, branden Howlett. The organization (for instance) has a kid at every level with a legit chance playing 3b and all are good prospects, whether it’s 2 mentioned above, Northcutt, Dalbec.
Have mentioned this to you before.. If you really have no clue? Just stop already.
What are you talking about? Ok, they have those guys. It’s still an incredibly weak farm. The first article that pops up when you search farm rankings 2019 has them 30 out of 30. I’m almost positive every outlet has them bottom 5. They have the luxury of having control at most spots on the major league team. And they are lucky for that because the farm doesn’t have much on the way.
google.com/amp/s/syndication.bleacherreport.com/am…
milb.com/milb/news/farm-system-rankings-overall-30…
BR has them 30. MILB has them at 23. Their farm isn’t good. Stop that. Your former best prospect is coming off TJ and the other one got popped for roids in the minors. There’s very few impact guys. You’re really fishing here if you’re trying to argue you that you have AAA guys who would start on the worst teams in baseball.
They arent lucky for that, their farm produced a huge number of those. Then their farm traded for most of the rest. They have few holes bc tgey had the #1 farm and translatedit to a title. Every Team wishes they could do that.
Yes. You missed the point and now this guy is arguing their farm is good again. That is not true in the slightest.
It doesnt have to be good now. They have Vazquez locked up a few years and Swihart still under team control. 1B will be open next year for the best of Devers, Chavis, Dalbec, Travis and thats plenty good. 2B is still Pedroia. 3rd… See 1st base options. LF Benny. CF should keep JBJ. RF must keep Betts. Rotation pretty locked in w Sale, Price, ERod, Eovalfi for multiple years. Pen will add Darwinzon and Feltman. The farm has what they need to complement what they have. Its not a top 10 farm but who even wastes a breath on that after what the farm has delivered recently??
Apparently this guy^^^^^
bosox farm, touchy subject, eh, John?
Keep doing what you doing, JD, but you dont need this Yankee fan, tell you that…
to* tell
blogs.fangraphs.com/post-2018-farm-system-rankings…
I posted a link to a pre 2018 page that had them at 23. My mistake on that. It’s actually worse for them.
Fangraphs has them at 29 after the 2018 season only in front of Seattle before their prospect binge this offseason. Safe to say the Red Sox farm isn’t very good. Their major league team is very good and that’s a great thing because the farm isn’t offering much in the way of help anytime soon.
That’s a Lie
They have Chavis, Dalbec, Shawaryn, Darwinzon, Lakins, & Feltman Coming Up.
All of them have a ETA of 2020
or Earlier
Chavis, Dalbec and Devers all play the same position. You can move one of them to 1B to cover that hole I suppose. As for the other guys every team in baseball has guys like that on the way up. There’s a reason your #30 and it’s not because it my opinion solely. The farm isn’t very good but you have 4 starters locked in long term and around the diamond the only open slot is 1B and probably 2nd. The bullpen obviously needs help. You just won 108 games you don’t need a ton from the farm but don’t act like it’s down there.
But it IS down there
Farm is Rated 22nd by Keith Law
I think I’ll Trust him.
-Dalbec is a 3B/1B Type. He’s 6’4
-Chavis is 3B, but he might be the Heir to Pedroia & could play 2nd
They have Darwinzon, Houck, & Shawaryn all fighting to replace Porcello’s Spot by 2020
Replacing Brock Holt with Tzu-Wei Lin (out of options in 2020)
will also cut costs
Again you said ”the Farm isn’t offering much in the way of help
Anytime soon”
Yet, I Named 7 Players with ETA’s Before 2020.
If Dombrowski is shrewd at the deadline, like he was Last year
It will be Top 15-20 Farm by 2020
Between the Draft & International signings.
Sorry I misspoke. Every team has guys who could be here by 2020. The farm isn’t offering any high quality reinforcements soon. Better?
Chavis is a Top 80 Prospect according to MLB Pipeline &
Darwinzon is a Lefty who Touches 97.
Lakins & Feltman have ETA’s of 2019 for much needed pen help.
So will see how they impact 2019
Weak defense? At worst, he’s average; and he’s likely a little above that. This is a solid deal.
DRS pegs him as terrible and UZR puts him at slightly below average. He’s not average at his floor. I don’t think he’s a -48 DRS SS but he’s not all that defensively. SS defense doesn’t usually tend to improve as a guy gets older slower and heavier either. This is a good price for him though. I wouldn’t be upset if I were a Boston fan.
What are you basing his defensive numbers on? With all the shifts, DRS and UZR, that are both based on zones that the players are positioned completely out of as much as they are in that zone, are not an accurate measure of defense. You can ignore them. StatCast is not available to the general public for infielders yet. So what are you basing your opinion of his defense on?
What are you basing yours off of? Fielding percentage? Can you explain to me why Andrelton Simmons, a great defensive SS via the eye test, also posts fantastic defensive metric numbers? I realize that these stats aren’t perfect but they have merit. I’ve seen Bogaerts play plenty of times as I’m a fan of a team in the ALE and my eyes tell me he’s no better than average. Of course that’s not what I’m basing my opinion on. So what are you basing yours off of?
The metrics used on Fangraphs and Baseball Reference are pure BS in the age of shifts. Explain how any zone-based metric can measure defense when in over 20% of all plays the defensive position was outside the zone they use?
Even if there were no shifts, the person that developed DRS has said that you need 3 years or about 4000 innings played to get an accurate measure. UZR needs an even larger data set. That means any measure for an individual player for one year is inherently inaccurate. Teams do not use either of those metrics nor do they use any zone-based metrics they have devised in house. They are inherently too inaccurate.
All the teams have plotted their stadiums with LIDAR and know exactly on every play how hard the ball was hit, how far the player had to go to catch (or not catch) the ball, the player’s reaction time, how long the player had to get to the ball, throw accuracy, and much, much more. They are not relying on inherently inaccurate measures like DRS and UZR.
We are seeing some of that in the StatCast defensive stats on Baseball Savant, albeit in a simplified format for the fans.
I watched 23 Red Sox regular season games last year. About the same amount the year before. To me, Boegarts is an average shortstop defensively from an eye test. His range is above average, but he has problems with routine plays. That means that what is keeping him from being a very good defensive shortstop is between his ears.
What happened to the end of the world as we know it in Boston after this year????
Clearly, the powers that be in MLB (and John Henry is one of those) want extensions; the fatter the players are with guaranteed money, the less likely they are to strike. Or act on the claims they care about those who aren’t able to share in the riches because of service time/amateur status (most could care less).
Is Boggie worth it? Dunnno, the defense isn’t terrible, nor is it in any way a plus. The offense puts him in the upper teir of his position. So I suppose he is.
I dont think its the end of the world but their window is not big. They wont be signing any big free agents and the farm is weak. Betts is obviously the key to everything
The Red Sox have $70++ million coming off the books for 2020 even after Bogaerts and Sale’s extensions and after signing Betts and all the rest of their arbitration eligible players to start 2020. They have plenty of money left for impact free agents.
We don’t know if Martinez will be extended or hit the FA market, but if he is extended or resigns with the Red Sox the difference in salary will not be significant.
While the farm system is not deep, there are players coming up that are close to the majors like Chavis, Houck, and Hernadez that will see time with the Red Sox this season and could step in to fill holes left by FA like Moreland and Porcello in 2020.
Their immediate window is 2 more years after 2019 and then it will depend on how the new CBA is structured and how CBT is measured and capped.
There are no “windows” in Boston. Ownership expects to contend every year. As such, they `empower DD (or whomever) to do what he has to do to get to contender status. They have too much auxiliary income dependent on their making the playoffs.
Now, given the “short” farm system, and the Tax, can DD navigate things to get there? Legitimate question, but he’s pretty inventive.
Sweet, hopefully Yankees and Red Sox go as high on luxury tax as they can. Kimbrel to Yankees, 4-80 million and Keuichel go’s to the Red Sox. Then with mid-season additions we’ll have a bigger warchest for the future. Rays will be trading Duffy, Robertson, Wendle, Stanek/Castillo, Kolarak, Chirinos/Yarborough and KK this season. KK and Kolarak to the Padres for Myers + money, Padack, and Gore. We could try Wendle + for Tallion and consolidate the rest for the best prospects we don’t need to protect for a couple years.
The probability of even one of those things you said happening is .000000000000001%. Way Way off base here.
On the other hand, this might mean that the Random Wacky Trade Proposal Generator software is ready for market
I like this trend. Free agency will be be much less exciting going forward if this trend continues, but it will create a consistency in the team’s core.
It took two years of the owners of shutting down the free agency market to a crawl. They’ve won. Players are getting security and some decent deals, but it seems there will be a lot less mega deals in the future.
Why not?
Everyone else in baseball has opened the cookie jar.
The most important part of this deal is it keeps the red sox from having to beat the market to sign a talented SS.
1) There isn’t anyone in the farm to step in if Bogey leaves.
2) there aren’t the trade chips you want to give up (who, Benny? Devers?) to swap another team for a talented MLB ready/proven SS.
3) ever since Nomar the Sox have basically had a revolving door at SS and Bogey is the first they really developed successfully. You could say Iggy counts, he was a slick fielder, but not much bat. This gives a few years of stability at a minimum.
For the price it’s a good deal. But I’ll argue that not many teams with their eyes on contention are in need of a SS. You saw the Phillies plug their whole with segura in a trade that cost way less than most people anticipated because the demand really wasn’t there. If bogey would’ve went to FA who realistically would’ve been in on him? The white Sox maybe? Mariners? Possibly the Yankees, even though I think that’s a stretch. I think Bogaerts might’ve seen that too and that’s why he was so open to this. Idk how hot the SS FA market would’ve been.
We don’t know what to expect from the yankees in that scenario, mainly because Didi hasn’t recovered yet so we don’t know what his long term is.
White Sox definitely beg to be relevant, you might see the Blue Jays jump in based on his young age (27)…
Giants might have jumped, crawford was due for FA after 2021 and is already 32 this year.
Then again you have to wonder about weaker fits – CLE if they move on from some other committed $$$, they like RS players. Could see someone interested in moving him to 3b, even though that didn’t work as a youngster.
Really, we won’t know anymore, and to me, that isn’t a bad thing.
Well I don’t think you can justify that kind of expenditure on Bogaerts as a 3B. That’s not a 150-200 million dollar bat at 3rd. Cleveland won’t be spending nearly 200MM on any player. But Its all a moot point now.
sox win again – good to be in the right side of the chart 😉
As a long time, and very fanatical, Red Sox fan all I can say is thank God for John Henry. $300 million dollar payroll, $100 million dollar CBT, who gives a hoot.
As a Jays fan, I love this move. XB is not worth this contract for 1.5 years of production and subpar fielding. Whatc other teams would’ve actually been interested in him if he hit the free market? Just another contract that will weigh down the sox in 2 years or so. Should’ve focus on Betts, the real talent.
Betts looking10/$400 mil
According to Baseball-Reference, Bosox payroll moving forward (approximation):
2020 – $200-mil
2021 – $199-mil
2022 – $200-mil
Projected MLB Luxury Tax:
2020 – $208-mil
2021 – $210-mil
Unless ownership gives the green light on spending beyond the threshold, Boston will have a tough time signing Mookie Betts longterm.
Yankees have $201-mil in 2020 and $195-mil in 2021. Then they have some breathing room in 2022.
It’s a solid and fair signing. The Red Sox aren’t real worried about the Luxury Tax under John Henry. My guess is they go below it in 2020 to reset. Then all Betts are off.
Well played.
In what world are the Red Sox resetting in 20020 between Sale and Bogaerts they are over 50 million. Betts is looking at close to 30 million in arbitration next year which puts them over 80 million for 3 players Add in Eovaldi and they are close to 100 million for 4 players. Do you really think they will let JD Porcello and Price walk without signing anybody to replace them.If anything there payroll will be higher next year then this year
My guess is they up around 200 million with arb and current salaries. They are not going to resign Porcello. 2020 will be a cheap year for the Sox they will reset in 2020 I’m almost sure of it. If JD elects to stay then they will most likely not be able to avoid the penalty. If he does elect free agency and the Red Sox let him walk then they will almost assuredly avoid the penalty probably be just under the number.
If they already have 200 million on their tab for 2020. I don’t see how they’re going to be able to fall under the luxury tax next year. They’re going to have to add something to this team in the offseason.
The key is JD Martinez if he leaves then they will more then likely semi-punt the 2020 season. They will still have plenty talent and be able to stay under the lux tax. They will have to promote some guys from the minors they will not be able to add to this team but JD walks and Porcello walks same with Nunez and Moreland plus all but 5 million falls off they can go under if they want to. They might be able to do it if JDM stays but really difficult to do so probably have to shed a contract or two. If JDM opts out it will be pretty easy to go under if they are willing to take a step back for a year.
When you consider you are adding 27 million in contracts to Sale and Betts probably another 10 million to Betts and more money for players like Benintendi Devers and Rodriguez the idea you will somehow magically reset your payroll is dubious at best.Consider if you don’t resign Porcello and Price you will have to spend money to replace them.You just can’t not resign them and then throw nobody in their place. Also not resigning JD would put a real hole in your lineup and that accepts the fact he will opt out and he might not. Face reality you are not going under the salary cap
I’m not saying that the team won’t be weaker I’m just saying they can reset the lux tax in 2020 and relatively easily if JDM doesn’t opt in. They can still do it with JDM but really tough to do. I’m simply saying that JDM is the key if he opts for free agency then the Red Sox most likely reset. Looking at the numbers it’s not hard to see it. Now there is the possibility that Sox ownership doesn’t care and will just keep adding but if they want to they can reset in 2020.
I seenow why you believe they’ll reset it. you think they are at 200 million this year. They are at 222 million this year. If they are adding 37 million between Betts Bogaerts and Sale and extra for the additional raises for Devers Benintendi and Rodriguez plus replacements for the leaving players why do you keep insisting they are going to go under the payroll next year unless you think they are not going to pick up any pitchers to replace the two leaving let JD walk and trade Betts’Worse you keep saying they will do it easily. Get real
Willie Mays Hayes let me spell it out for you. According to Cotts with Arb figures increases Red Sox payroll next year will be around 205 million and that’s with JDM. If JDM opts out and the Red Sox rely on Chavis, Dalbec, Feltman, DH, Travis Lakins to fill the Holes then they easily go under the number. I’m not saying they will be better so the bottom line is if JDM opts out it will be pretty easy to go under the 207 pretty easily.
I seethe Red Sox committed to 136 million in 2020 if JD opts out 159 mil lif he doesn’t.TThat number 136 million is for 6 players That means 6 players are averaging almost 23 million a piece.That does noti nclude arbitration people like Betts Rodrigues Devers Benintendi Bradley. When you are paying 6 players that much money its a problem Since both Moreland and JD are not included in that number I assume you’ll need a first baseman.It also means no free agent pitcher with an aging pitching staff no added relievers etc Of course if Boston chooses to suck next year they can make it.I think you are being real naive if Boston takes that road.
I’m just saying they can reset if they want to. They will still be competitive and then reload for 2021 season. I think it all comes down to JDM if he opts in then it will be nearly impossible without moving a contract. If he does opt out then you take a step back for one year and go for it after that. Any team that has Sale, Price, Eovaldi, Eddie, and some rookie will be pretty good.
Honest question, I know some people don’t appreciate WAR, but for those that do – which is more accurate, bWAR or fWAR. They are both quoted in articles, I always wonder. Baseball reference or fan graphs?