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Archives for March 2019

West Notes: Kyler, Felix, Verdugo

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Notes from around the game’s western divisions…

  • The A’s are “not giving up” on Kyler Murray, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Murray’s widely perceived as first-round selection in the forthcoming NFL Draft – he’s the 8th best ranked prospect on Mel Kiper Jr.’s latest big board – and recently checked in at an encouraging (for NFL teams) 5’10 and 207 lbs, just a half-inch shorter than Seahawks QB Russell Wilson during his combine appearance in 2013. His status, in fact, continues to soar: NFL Network reports suggest that the QB/OF is now “universally” projected to go first overall in April’s draft. Still, as Rosenthal reminds us, the A’s can still beat any NFL offer for Murray by offering him an unrestricted major-league deal that would guarantee him a spot on the 40-man. Baker Mayfield, last year’s first overall selection in the NFL Draft, signed a guaranteed deal worth nearly $33MM, so any investment of the kind in Murray, a player with only 238 AB in two college seasons, would be a significant risk. Still, the gamble may yet prove to be a worthy one under the current rookie-scale structure, where even the best players struggle to eclipse $5MM combined in their first four full major league campaigns.
  • Mariners righty Felix Hernandez, who clung ardently to a world-beating changeup at the height of his reign, has bluntly been informed that his best pitch is now his curveball, as the Seattle Times’ Ryan Divish writes. Indeed, per FanGraphs’ pitch value metrics, the curve was easily tops among Hernandez’s offerings in 2018, the worst in a storied Seattle career for the Venezuelan. With just 0.7 combined fWAR in over 230 IP the last two seasons, and an average fastball velocity that reached a career-low 89.3 MPH in ’18, Hernandez knows his grip on the last rotation spot in the Mariner rotation is tenuous at best. Remarkably, the King, who’s thrown nearly 2,700 innings at the big-league level since his teenage debut, will be just 33 years old for much of the year, and may yet have a second act left in him.
  • Dodgers outfielder Alex Verdugo is tired of waiting for an opportunity, as Bill Plunkett of the OC Register explains: “I hit .330 for two years. I mean – at a certain point, numbers don’t lie. I’ve hit in the minor leagues. I think I’m a career over .300 hitter. Everybody wants to talk about ‘It’s the minors. It’s not the big leagues.’ I hit over .300 against lefties in my career. I hit righties and lefties very well in my career.” Verdugo, who’s been knocked in multiple circles for makeup issues dating back to high school, may again have a bird’s-eye view of the action this year – per Plunkett, the Dodgers “expect” to align their outfield with Cody Bellinger in right and A.J. Pollock in center; Joc Pederson, too, comes in with a career 118 wRC+ total under his belt, and Verdugo wouldn’t seem the logical choice to spell him against his left-handed kryptonite. The 22-year-old isn’t wrong about his batting average totals, but the power numbers – a .122 and .143 ISO in the last two seasons, respectively – leave plenty of room for improvement.

Minor MLB Transactions: 3/2/19

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We’ll use this post to track the minor moves of the day…

  • The Pirates are bringing fleet-footed infielder Alfredo Reyes to big league camp as a non-roster invitee, per the Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel (via Twitter). Reyes, 25, spent a majority of last season split between High-A Bradenton and Double-A Altoona, earning a six-game stint with the Pirates Triple-A club in Indianapolis. All told, Reyes hit .286/.386/.356 across the three levels, though most of that damage was done during the 61-game stint in High-A where he slashed .310/.424/.386. The speedy utility player managed to steal 35 bases in 39 attempts, an 89.7% success rate. Defensively, Reyes appeared at every position on the diamond except pitcher and catcher.
  • Per Matt Eddy of Baseball America, the Padres have signed lefty reliever Paco Rodriguez to a minor-league deal. Rodriguez, 27, jumped almost directly to the bigs after being selected in the 2nd round of the 2012 amateur draft by the Dodgers. In four seasons with LA, Rodriguez performed admirably – albeit in limited, LOOGY-exclusive role – twirling 85 1/3 innings of 9.6 K/9, 2.53 ERA-ball. Paco was shipped at the 2015 trade deadline to Atlanta, where rehab from a variety of injuries eventually culminated in a late-season Tommy John. He spent much of last season with Minnesota’s AA affiliate, notching a 4.26 ERA in 25 IP.

Giants Claim Merandy Gonzalez

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Per a team release, the Giants have claimed righty Merandy Gonzalez off outright waivers from Miami.

Gonzalez, 23, flashed electric stuff as a fast-rising arm in the Mets system before being shipped to Miami in a 2017 deadline deal for A.J. Ramos. The righty has worked primarily as a starter in a six-year minor-league career, but moved to the bullpen upon promotion to the big club last summer. In 22 IP for the Fish last season, Gonzalez posted a 7.77 K/9 against 3.27 BB/9 in a number of long-relief stints. His early-season work for AAA-New Orleans in the PCL was mostly uninspiring: the hurler struggled to miss bats, perpetuating a troubling trend from the previous season, and exhibited mostly-shaky command throughout.

FanGraphs, which rated Gonzalez 26th in its latest update of the Marlins system, lauds Gonzalez’s fastball/curveball mix, which both feature “nasty” natural movement, but note that his command lags well behind his control; the righty, it seems, isn’t very effective when facing a lineup for the second or third time.

If he sticks on the San Fran 40-man, Gonzalez could compete for the last spot in a deep Giant bullpen, especially if the club decides to dangle lefties Will Smith and Tony Watson as late-spring bait. Travis Bergen, Steven Okert, Fernando Abad, Pat Venditte, Trevor Gott, and Sam Coonrod comprise the bulk of the remaining hurlers in the mix, so perhaps Gonzalez’s status as a swingman could tilt in the odds in his favor.

Mets Sign Carlos Gomez

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Saturday, 1:25 PM: The deal is now official, per Mike Puma of the New York Post.

Friday, 11:48 AM:The Mets have reportedly struck a deal with free agent outfielder Carlos Gomez. The @BigDaveRants account first tweeted the news, which has been confirmed since by several reports. It’s said to be a minor-league pact, pending a physical.

Memorably, Gomez nearly became a member of the Mets in the summer of 2015. At the time, he was a star center fielder and the New York club was readying for a stretch run at the postseason. The deal was all but done before things fell apart.

The undoing of that swap created huge ripples still being felt. Gomez ended up being swapped instead to the Astros in a deal that worked out terribly for Houston but didn’t prevent the club from finding its own successes. That trade helped spur the Brewers’ recent resurgence.

Meanwhile, the Mets hung on to Zack Wheeler, who’ll now be a key member of the rotation after his own 2018 renaissance. The other piece of that trade-that-wasn’t,  Wilmer Flores, provided one of the trade deadline’s indelible moments when he shed some tears on the field following the reporting of the deal. (He was non-tendered this fall and landed with the Diamondbacks.)

Looking to the present, the deal makes for a somewhat interesting match. Gomez will obviously need to earn his way onto the roster after a forgettable 2018 season for the Rays, but he had a productive stop with the Rangers before that and only just turned 33 years old.

The Mets already have a host of left-handed-hitting outfielders, but are less certain from the right side. Gomez could push Juan Lagares and Keon Broxton in camp. While those younger options have much better gloves, Gomez is the most accomplished hitter of the bunch — though Broxton has been a similarly productive offensive performer (despite worrying strikeout numbers) over the past three seasons. It could be that Gomez will end up serving mostly as a depth piece while auditioning for other teams, but there’s about a month left in camp and circumstances can always change.

MLBTR Poll: Does Arenado Deal Impact Extensions For Goldschmidt, Rendon?

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Though it took longer than expected, Manny Machado and Bryce Harper got their big deals – Machado for a decade, Harper for a baker’s dozen. In the time between their signings, next winter’s top free agent got his big payday as well – the Rockies locked up Nolan Arenado for 8 years, $260MM. Free agency’s treatment of this winter’s big fish was always going to somewhat inform Arenado’s path, but the ramifications of all three superstars having planted their respective flags extends beyond San Diego, Philadelphia, and Colorado.

With Arenado’s abdication of his position atop 2019’s free agent class, Paul Goldschmidt inherits the throne. The Cardinals are now pressed with increased urgency to sign their new first baseman to an extension, writes Ben Frederickson of the St.Louis Post-Dispatch. Though Machado and Harper were both presumptive fits on the Cardinals roster, they never really approached the bidder’s circle. Of course, as Frederickson points out, signing top free agents hasn’t been the Cardinal modus operandi. What is very much in their DNA is trading for superstars and extending (or re-signing) them, two prime examples being Mark McGwire in 1997 and Matt Holliday in 2009.

Frederickson urges the Cards to dive headlong into their partnership with Goldy, who might prove amenable to a long-term guarantee after watching Machado, Harper, and so many others tread water in free agency. An extension won’t come cheap for one of the more more accomplished hitters of his generation, who boasts an absurd 144 career wRC+, six consecutive All-Star games, four Silver Sluggers, three Gold Gloves, plus two silver medals and a bronze for MVP. And yet, there’s no ignoring the uncertainty created these past two frigid winters.

Still, the top free agents continue to make bank, and the same should be true for Goldschmidt. It was only a year ago this time that Scott Boras coaxed the Padres into giving Eric Hosmer, a far inferior player, $144MM over eight years. Frederickson cites his Post-Dispatch colleague Derrick Goold in putting forth five years, $150MM ($30MM AAV) as a potential framework for a Goldschmidt extension.

The biggest differentiator between the Machado/Harper/Hosmer trio and Goldschmidt, of course, is age. The ISE Baseball client can claim one of the most well-rounded skill sets in the league – but he will be entering his age-32 season as a free agent. Still, the smart play for the Cardinals here, Frederickson suggests, is locking in the .297/.398/.532 career hitter as soon as possible he is willing.

The Nationals have a similar conundrum on their hands with Scott Boras client Anthony Rendon. For most Boras clients, there would be little hope for an extension this close to free agency, but Boras and the Nationals have made this work before – just not in every case. The two sides have remained in contact about a Rendon extension for most of the last year, per MLB.com’s Jamal Collier. Similarly to Goldschmidt, the Arenado signing has an effect here, as Rendon jumps to the top spot among free agent third basemen.

Rendon’s been a foundational piece throughout the Harper/Strasburg era in DC, batting .285/.361/.469 over six seasons in DC. He creates 23% more runs than average in that span, and he’s been even more impressive lately with a 141 wRC+ in 2017 and 140 wRC+ last year. Defensively he’s as sure-handed as they come, if not quite with Arenado’s flash. If it weren’t for Arenado’s vice-grip on the gold glove award, Rendon would likely have some hardware of his own.

Take a stacked positional class that includes Arenado, Kris Bryant, Matt Carpenter, Justin Turner, Eugenio Suarez, add to it superstar contemporaries in Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, and Harper, plus a flourishing next generation of Nats stars like Trea Turner, Victor Robles, and Juan Soto – and Rendon’s excellence gets lost in the shuffle. Epitomizing Rendon’s place in the current canon is this: he has zero All-Star appearances despite three top-12 finishes in MVP voting. He did, however, win a Silver Slugger in 2014 and the NL Comeback Player of the Year award in 2016.

Rendon, who turns 29 in June, is set to earn $18.8MM in 2019, his last year before hitting the open market. With Arenado securing a $32.5MM AAV, what is Rendon’s value? He’s a year older and less decorated than Arenado, but Rendon’s 25.8 career fWAR compares favorably to Arenado’s 25.3 fWAR. Turning to a rate metric, Arenado’s put forth a 127 OPS+ over the past five seasons versus Rendon’s 122 OPS+ in the same span. Still, Arenado is pretty much universally regarded as the superior player.

Given their ages, neither Goldschmidt nor Rendon are likely to surpass Arenado’s contract in terms of length, but they could reach higher AAVs if their incumbent clubs take Frederickson’s advice: “Pour on the money. Scale back the years.” 

Goldschmidt poll link for app users. 

Rendon poll link for app users.

 

More On Bryce Harper: Werth, Phillies, Nats Farewell, New Teammates

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Former National and Phillie Jayson Werth was unsurprised to hear about his former teammate’s decision to sign in Philadelphia, per Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post. Werth knows the trek up I-95 well, as he went the opposite direction in the winter before 2011 when he ended a four-year run in Philly by joining a DC club that had drafted Harper the June prior. Werth’s perspective is unique, obviously, because of his relationship to mentee Bryce Harper, but Werth said he and Harper never discussed free agency or Philadelphia, despite speaking a couple of times over the winter. Werth likes the deal for both sides,“You’re getting a young Bryce Harper for his whole career,” says Werth. “You’re going to get him through tons of prime years. Compared with some of the other deals that are out there, it’s fair in the market for both parties. If you’re Bryce, I think you love the years. If you’re Philadelphia, you probably love the price.” Werth fans will appreciate this update from his post-playing days, which is going about as one might expect: he has his hands full with organic farming, snowboarding, and the launching of his own hemp processing business in Illinois. Let’s check in on a couple other Harper notes…

  • Reuben Frank of NBC Sports Philadelphia takes a look at the ten free agents in Philly history who made the biggest splash upon signing. Current 76ers GM Elton Brand makes the list, as does Werth’s former teammate Cliff Lee and MLB’s hit king Pete Rose. 
  • The Nationals bid Harper a fond farewell from their Twitter account in advance of his introduction in Philly. There does not appear to be quite the level of heartbreak one might expect from fans in Washington, perhaps due to Harper’s early flirtations with the Yankees, or the protracted nature of his departure, or the fact that his national fame predates his Nats career. Of course, the suppression of hurt feelings is a time-tested defense mechanism after a breakup, though the development of Juan Soto and Victor Robles certainly helps soften the blow. Harper leaves the Nationals second to only Ryan Zimmerman in many offensive categories since the club moved to Washington, including home runs, walks, runs, RBIs, extra-base hits and total bases. Add in the organization’s history in Montreal and Harper’s .900 OPS ranks second all-time, bested only by Vladimir Guerrero’s .978 OPS with the Expos.
  • Harper’s future teammates, meanwhile, are excited about the expectations Harper brings to the club, per MLB.com’s Richard Justice. Already many of the comments from Phillies players like Rhys Hoskins and Andrew McCutchen center on this team’s potential as a World Series contender. “[Harper] wants to be a Phillie for the rest of his career, pretty much. I get goosebumps thinking about it,” says Jake Arrieta, a guy who knows something about what it takes to win a World Series. “I doubt I’ll play for another 13 years, but I would love to be here for 13 years with him.” It’s safe to say Arrieta will need to kick his pilates routine into high gear if he’s to stick around that long, as he will turn 45 in March of the final year of Harper’s deal.

Phillies To Introduce Bryce Harper Today At 2pm

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Newest Phillie Bryce Harper will be available to the media at his introductory press conference today at 2pm EST in Clearwater, Florida. You can watch the press conference live on MLB.com and MLBNetwork.

Along with Harper and agent Scott Boras, GM Matt Klentak and managing partner John Middleton will be present and available to the media from the top of the first base dugout at Spectrum Field, where the press conference is taking place. The Phillies gave word of their 13-year union with Harper via tweet yesterday.

In a separate press release, the Phillies officially announced the signing. The Phillies title Harper “one of the premier players in Major League Baseball” and “a multi-media star” while often referencing Harper’s age alongside his varied career accomplishments.

Harper himself tweeted a photo of the new cover for Sony’s MLB the Show 19, on which he appears in his new Phillies garb. After wearing number 34 in Washington, Harper will switch to number three in Philadelphia.

Check out a roundup of MLBTR’s Notes & Observations from the Harper signing here, or find out what the readers think of the new deal with this MLBTR Poll.

Quick Hits: Borbon, Holt, BoSox, Wieters, Posey

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Former Major League outfielder Julio Borbon announced his retirement today, via a post on his Instagram page thanking the many people who supported him throughout his 12 professional seasons.  The Rangers chose Borbon with the 35th overall pick of the 2007 draft, and the University Of Tennessee product went on to amass 294 games and 878 plate appearances for the Rangers, Cubs, and Orioles in parts of five MLB seasons between 2009-16.  Now that his playing career is over, Borbon is staying in the game as a coach in the Yankees organization.  MLBTR wishes Borbon all the best in this new phase of his baseball career.

  • Brock Holt is eligible for free agency after the 2019 season, but the Red Sox super-utilityman tells Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald that he “would love to stay here for the rest of my career — I’m happy here, my family’s happy here, I love everything about being a Boston Red Sox.”  Holt’s versatility has made him an important depth piece for the Sox, capable of filling in at multiple positions and also providing some decent production at the plate; Holt’s .362 OBP and .411 slugging percentage last season were both career bests.  There’s certainly value available for Boston in keeping Holt, and an extension would hardly break the bank (Holt is earning $3.575MM this season).  The Red Sox have been discussing extensions with some higher-profile names this spring, which could explain why the team hasn’t yet approached Holt or his representatives about a new deal.
  • The Cardinals were the only team that made Matt Wieters an offer this winter, MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch tweets, which is why the veteran catcher signed on with St. Louis on a minor league deal.  Wieters is far from the only veteran who had a tough time finding work in the quiet free agent market, and the former four-time All-Star’s value took a severe hit following three consecutive subpar years with the Orioles and Nationals.  While Wieters had to settle for a non-guaranteed deal, he at least has a solid shot at winning the job as Yadier Molina’s backup.
  • Buster Posey appeared in his first Spring Training game today, catching three innings and generally looking in good condition following last August’s hip surgery.  “It would have been nice to maybe ease into it a little bit but it was also nice to check off some more boxes, and we’ll see how my body responds tomorrow and Sunday.  Overall I was really happy with the way it felt,” Posey told reporters, including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area.  Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi indicated earlier this month that the team would bring Posey along carefully in his recovery process, though the catcher seems to be making a case to appear in the Giants’ Opening Day lineup.

Starting Pitching Notes: Fernandez, Kershaw, Buehler, deGrom, Pineda

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The late Jose Fernandez would have been eligible for free agency this offseason, a concept The Athletic’s Jayson Stark explores (subscription required) in an outstanding remembrance of the former Marlins ace.  Fernandez emerged as perhaps the top young pitcher in all of baseball over 471 1/3 innings with Miami from 2013-16, and he would’ve reached free agency as a 26-year-old, the same age as Bryce Harper and Manny Machado this winter.  Assuming Fernandez had continued his dominant pace, agent Scott Boras had visions of a $400MM deal for his client.  Miami had already offered to sign Fernandez to an extension prior to the 2015 season, and even though Fernandez was coming off Tommy John surgery, he rejected that $40.7MM in guaranteed money to bet on himself — a sign of the self-confidence that had both positive and negative effects on Fernandez throughout his life.  Stark’s piece includes comments from a wide range of former teammates, coaches, and Marlins personnel about their memories of the star right-hander, who had already become a Miami baseball icon at the time of his tragic passing on September 25, 2016.

Some items from around the starting pitching scene…

  • Dodgers manager Dave Roberts provided an update on Clayton Kershaw to reporters (including MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick), saying that Kershaw had a five-minute game of catch for the second straight day.  “Clayton said he let it go about 80 percent and he felt good, he felt strong,” Roberts said.  “Tomorrow we’re going to stretch him out some more as far as length and intensity. In talking to him today, we’re pretty encouraged.”  Kershaw was shut down last week due to shoulder soreness, and the Dodgers will continue to take it slow with their ace southpaw.
  • The Dodgers are taking a similar path with Walker Buehler, who has only been throwing on flat ground since tossing a single bullpen session during the first week of spring camp.  There isn’t anything physically wrong with the young righty, Roberts said, as Buehler is simply being “slow-played” in his ramp-up to the 2019 season as a nod to his increased workload last year.  Between the minors, the MLB regular season, and the postseason, Buehler tossed 177 innings in 2018.  It was a vast increase for a pitcher in just his third pro season, especially considering Buehler underwent Tommy John surgery in 2015 and tossed only 98 total innings in 2017.
  • There hasn’t been much reported progress in contract talks between the Mets and Jacob deGrom, and according to the New York Post’s Joel Sherman, “the word circulating is specifically [Mets owner] Fred Wilpon” has some hesitation about extending the right-hander.  As Sherman points out, if the elder Wilpon has concerns, they wouldn’t be unjustified — deGrom turns 31 in June, has undergone a Tommy John surgery in his past, and is already controlled through the 2020 season.  (Plus, the Mets have been burned on several pricey contracts in recent years.)  Sherman proposes a possible extension that could satisfy both sides; a four-year deal covering the 2020-23 seasons for $124MM in guaranteed money, plus a vesting option for 2024 that pays deGrom another $10MM in a buyout, and up to $31MM for 2024 if the option vests.
  • Michael Pineda tossed two scoreless innings and threw 18 of his 26 pitches for strikes in an outing against the Red Sox today, his first time facing MLB hitters since July 5, 2017.  He threw between 93-95mph, matching his old fastball speed, though Pineda told The Athletic’s Dan Hayes and other media that “I’m not focused on the velocity.  My goal is to be healthy and get some focus and be back. And be Michael Pineda, back like he used to be.”  Pineda underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2017, and his hopes of a return in 2018 were dashed after he suffered a torn meniscus.  After signing a two-year, $10MM deal with the Twins in the 2017-18 offseason, Pineda is making positive steps towards being a contributor for Minnesota this year.

Phillies Sign Bryce Harper

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TODAY: The deal is official, as per a simple tweet from the Phillies’ Twitter feed stating “We got him.”

THURSDAY, 7:23pm: Harper will receive a $10MM salary and a $20MM signing bonus for the upcoming season, tweets Heyman. He’ll then be paid $26MM annually from 2020-28 and $22MM annually from 2029-31.

1:51pm: The Phillies and star outfielder Bryce Harper have made quite the commitment to one another, according to reports. The sides have agreed in principle to a 13-year, $330MM deal that puts Harper in Philadelphia through his age-38 season.

Unlike virtually all recent mega-contracts, this one comes without caveats. Harper gets full no-trade rights and does not possess any opt-out opportunities. The contract won’t come with deferrals, though it is said to have a front-loaded structure.

The end to Harper’s drawn-out free agency seemed to come suddenly. It may be that the Phillies finally met his asking price after late-breaking interest from the Dodgers and Giants.

When the dust settled, Harper had landed the biggest contract in MLB history. He just tops the $325MM guarantee the Marlins gave Giancarlo Stanton over a 13-year term, though it’s important to note that deal came in an extension scenario.

In taking the largest overall contract, Harper did make a clear sacrifice on average annual value. He’ll earn just over $25MM per season annually, well under the $30MM average commanded recently by Manny Machado in his deal with the Padres and $33.4MM promised in the seven new seasons covered by Nolan Arenado’s extension with the Rockies.

That reduced annual value won’t likely mean much in the way of sacrificed earning power, as it covers only three late-career seasons. It does help the Phillies to reduce the annual competitive balance tax hit from the signing, which could assist the organization as it looks to maintain competitiveness over a long marriage with its new star.

Beyond the market impact, this move sets the stage for a fascinating season (and beyond) in the National League East. The Phillies, Nationals, and Mets have all made win-now moves in hopes of dethroning a Braves team that is still full of young talent.

Harper’s move up the interstate from D.C. brings an end to a productive tenure with the Nats, reversing the career arc of recently retired former teammate Jayson Werth on a much grander scale. Harper’s exciting debut campaign was punctuated by a memorable run-in with the Phillies and then-ace Cole Hamels, the club that the Nationals were then seeking to eclipse as the premier outfit in the division.

The Washington organization did make a run at keeping Harper, but wasn’t able to work things out. Some might say that he’d have been better off taking the ten-year, $300MM offer that was reportedly put on the table. Reports have made clear that a roughly a third of that money would have been deferred, greatly driving down its true value.

Rather than take a deferred contract, Harper searched for and found the type of fully guaranteed, non-deferred deal he sought with the Philadelphia organization. The move punctuates an offseason that lived up to expectations for the Phillies’ faithful. The club already added the game’s best catcher in J.T. Realmuto, acquired a strong shortstop in Jean Segura, and added veterans including Andrew McCutchen and David Robertson. It’s imaginable that there’s more still to come, though perhaps the initial focus will be on making a roster-clearing move to accommodate the newest addition.

Investing in Harper gives the Phillies the game’s most recognizable player. He’s also quite a good one, even if he hasn’t shown that he can consistently produce at the otherworldly levels he did in a magical 2015 season. Harper’s ups and downs have come with a very lofty mean, of course — he’s a .279/.388/.512 career hitter with 184 home runs in nearly four thousand career plate appearances — though the aggregate remains every so slightly disappointing given his nearly unmatched talent level. Defensive questions arose last year, as Harper graded quite poorly. That was cause for concern in some quarters, though there’s also reason to believe that he can turn things around.

We at MLBTR would be remiss not to acknowledge that the out-on-a-limb estimation we put forth on Harper early in the offseason — a 14-year pact worth $420MM — ultimately proved to be a dramatic overreach. At the time of our initial top 50 rankings, we were of the belief that because Harper and Machado were non-traditional free agents (i.e. legitimate superstars who’d not yet played their age-26 seasons), traditional contractual structures wouldn’t apply to them. With so much talk in the preceding offseason about the teams who bend over backward to dip below the luxury tax in advance of this offseason’s crop of free agents, our team fully anticipated a widespread level of interest that simply never came to fruition.

Rather, with only three to four serious bidders for most of the winter, Harper and Boras had to claw to reach a point at which we expected the bidding to begin. The end result — a significantly lengthier term with the intent of tamping down the average annual value/luxury tax hit — was, as noted at the time, a highly plausible outcome, though securing a record-setting guarantee required lowering the AAV further than our forecast.

Predictions aside, Harper’s deal sets a new high-water mark on which premier players of the future will set their sights when seeking open-market contracts or, at least, extensions on the cusp of free agency. One can imagine, to varying extents, the Harper guarantee at least serving as a talking point when Mike Trout and Mookie Betts, both controlled through the 2020 season, begin to take an earnest look at their next contracts. Of course, they’d reach free agency at three and two years older than Harper was this winter, respectively, so it’s far from a direct comparison. But, as the Stanton contract did in this instance, the Harper contract will now serve as a barometer that agents and superstar players alike will aim to topple — even if by only a narrow measure.

Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link) first reported the deal. Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (Twitter links) and Jim Bowden of The Athletic (Twitter link) had the key terms, with Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post (Twitter link) and MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (via Twitter) adding details.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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