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Offseason In Review: San Francisco Giants

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This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

Apart from a late push in the Bryce Harper market, the Giants stuck to mostly low-profile signings and acquisitions in Farhan Zaidi’s first offseason as the club’s president of baseball operations.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

[Giants Organizational Depth Chart | Giants Payroll Information]

Needs Addressed

Signed to a minor league deal last offseason, Derek Holland ended up being a major bargain for the Giants.  After four injury-riddled and ineffective years with the Rangers and White Sox, Holland got back on track by posting a 3.57 ERA, 8.88 K/9, and 2.52 K/9 rate over 171 1/3 innings for San Francisco in 2018.

The Reds, Rangers, and Mets were all linked to Holland over the course of the winter, though the southpaw ended up returning to the Giants on a one-year deal worth $7MM in guaranteed money, plus the club holds an option for 2020 that could result in Holland earning as much as $15MM over the course of the next two seasons.  There weren’t any big red flags in Holland’s peripherals from last season, so this new contract would also be well worth the Giants’ while if Holland remains healthy.

Drew PomeranzThere’s more of an injury concern in regards to new arrival Drew Pomeranz, who has had health issues over the course of his career and pitched only 74 innings last season due to a variety of arm problems.  At just a $1.5MM guaranteed salary, however, the Giants aren’t taking much of a financial risk on Pomeranz, and he is only a year removed from giving the Red Sox 173 2/3 innings of 3.32 ERA pitching.  Pomeranz is penciled in as the fifth starter (behind Madison Bumgarner, Holland, Jeff Samardzija, and Dereck Rodriguez). San Francisco has the likes of Andrew Suarez, waiver claims Jose Lopez and Merandy Gonzalez (if they clear waivers and remain in the organization), and former first-rounder Tyler Beede as Triple-A depth options.

Hunter Strickland was somewhat surprisingly let go just prior to the non-tender deadline, though the Giants have been getting good results from many of their relievers this spring, leaving the club with a bit of a logjam for the Opening Day bullpen.  Rule 5 Draft pick Travis Bergen has to remain on the MLB roster all season or else be offered back to Toronto, though Bergen has pitched well enough to retain his position regardless.  Low-risk acquisitions Nick Vincent, Trevor Gott, Fernando Abad, or Pat Venditte could either provide depth if they remain in the organization, win jobs outright, or potentially move into roles left open should the Giants swing a late trade involving Will Smith or Tony Watson.

A change was made at backup catcher, as Nick Hundley will be replaced by pair of late-spring acquisitions.  After it seemed like rookie Aramis Garcia and minor league signings Rene Rivera and Stephen Vogt would vie for the job, San Francisco changed course by adding veterans Erik Kratz and Tom Murphy.  Rivera was cut loose, while Vogt and Garcia will provide additional depth in the minors.  It seems like enough of a logjam that a future move seems inevitable, though the Giants want to have plenty of catching on hand as Buster Posey recovers from hip surgery.  On the plus side, Posey seems to be making good progress and is on track to appear in the Opening Day lineup, though obviously the Giants will keep a close eye on their franchise player’s status.

Outfield was the Giants’ biggest need heading into the offseason, and the club ultimately brought in a number of new faces to supplement youngster Steven Duggar (who looks to play more or less every day in center field).  Former Rockies/Diamondbacks outfielder Gerardo Parra will make the Opening Day roster after signing a minor league contract.  The Giants essentially swapped one Rule 5 pick for another in trading for Connor Joe and letting Drew Ferguson return to the Astros.  Michael Reed, Mike Gerber, and Craig Gentry are also on hand, while incumbent Mac Williamson remains in the mix for at least part-time duty in left field.

Yangervis Solarte hasn’t appeared in a big league game as an outfielder since 2014, though the former Blue Jays utilityman has been working out in left field during Spring Training with an eye towards improving his versatility.  Between Solarte, Joe, and Alen Hanson, the Giants have several players with experience at multiple positions — potentially bumping Pablo Sandoval out of the mix.

Questions Remaining

Of course, the Giants could have made a much more newsworthy outfield upgrade had they landed Harper.  The team was something of an eleventh-hour entry into “Harper’s Bazaar,” though San Francisco ended up being Harper’s apparent second choice before the star free agent signed a (temporarily) record-setting 13-year, $330MM deal with the Phillies.  The Giants’ reported offer of 12 years and $310MM fell shy, though the team would’ve had to top the $350MM mark to truly outbid the Phillies due to California’s higher tax rate.

It goes without saying that signing Harper would’ve changed not only the trajectory of this Giants offseason, but also the team’s outlook for the next several years.  With Harper in the fold, the Giants would have indicated a full-fledged push towards contending while many of their highest-salaried players (Bumgarner through this season, Samardzija and Mark Melancon through 2020, and then Posey, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Johnny Cueto, and Evan Longoria through 2021) are still with the team.  Along those same lines, the Giants also had interest in signing Yusei Kikuchi before the Japanese left-hander joined the Mariners.

Without Harper or Kikuchi, however, San Francisco left the offseason still straddling the middle ground between contending and fully rebuilding.  The club has to this point resisted overtures from rival teams and held on to Bumgarner, Watson, and Smith; yet the Giants also took a very modest approach to adding to their roster.  They weren’t going to deal any prospects from an already-thin farm system, and they settled for inexpensive free agent and trade additions after missing out on Kikuchi and Harper.

Joe Panik’s status is perhaps indicative of the Giants’ overall stance this offseason.  The team kept Panik in the fold rather than non-tendering him following an injury-shortened and replacement-level season, at a one-year, $3.8MM deal to avoid arbitration.  At the same time, however, San Francisco also looked into signing second baseman DJ LeMahieu while checking the trade market to see what could be obtained for Panik.  As it turned out, the Giants didn’t get that upgrade, and will instead go into the season with a known quantity in Panik who the club hopes will rebound.

A case can be made that Zaidi may be waiting to see how things shake out; come mid-season, he may have some new trade avenues or even the makings of a contending core.  After all, Posey, Belt, Bumgarner, Samardzija, Crawford, and Melancon were all limited by injuries in 2018 — better health from even a few of those names would likely make a difference in the standings.  A full teardown wasn’t really possible this winter anyway since so many of those same players have limited trade value, due to their down years, health histories, hefty contracts, no-trade clauses, or all of the above.

On the other hand, it’s also unrealistic to imagine that all of those veterans will enjoy bounce-back years.  With so many big contracts already verging on albatross territory for the team, one can’t entirely blame Zaidi for eschewing the type of expensive acquisitions that have backfired on the Giants in recent years.  Signing a Harper or a Kikuchi is one thing, though settling for a lower-tier free agent as a stopgap isn’t the type of move that would fuel a bigger jump up the standings.

If San Francisco isn’t contending by midseason, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the club shift into a more definitive sell mode, at the very least on pending free agents like Bumgarner or Smith.  It also wouldn’t be a shock to see the Giants explore being both buyers and sellers at the deadline — moving some short-term assets while taking on an expensive longer-term asset that could help them in 2020 or beyond.  If the Giants were willing to spend $310MM on Harper, they’re clearly open to exceeding the luxury tax threshold again in order to land premium talent.

Should 2019 end up being the last hurrah for this group of Giants stars before a rebuild, it’s perhaps fitting longtime manager Bruce Bochy will retire when the year is out.  The three-time World Series champion will manage a 25th season before stepping out of the dugout and starting his inevitable path to Cooperstown.

2019 Season Outlook

Frankly, there’s still a few days for the roster to change, which could shift the outlook. Regardless, an awful lot would have to go right for the Giants to go from 89 losses in 2018 to a playoff contender in 2019.  In a very competitive National League, the Giants could themselves battling to stay out of last place in their division, rather than challenging the Dodgers for NL West supremacy.

How would you grade the Giants’ offseason moves? (Link for app users.)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Diamondbacks Place Socrates Brito On Outright Waivers

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The Diamondbacks have placed outfielder Socrates Brito on outright waivers, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (via Twitter). He can be claimed off waivers; if he clears, he could be assigned to Triple-A and remain with the Arizona organization.

That news is of particular interest given that fellow D-Backs outfielder Steven Souza Jr. just left the club’s contest tonight with an apparent left leg injury. It’s not clear at all yet how severe the injury is, but Souza was visibly in significant pain and unable to put weight on the leg.

Brito, 26, might have been an option to step in for Souza if he requires time on the injured list. That could still come to pass, but only if he doesn’t end up on another club’s roster.

Despite debuting in 2015, Brito has received only minimal MLB opportunities. He hasn’t done much of note in his 175 plate appearances at the game’s highest level. At Triple-A, though, he has turned in strong numbers. In over one thousand plate appearances at the highest level of the minors, Brito carries a .303/.352/.484 slash with 28 home runs and 28 steals.

Indians Owner Paul Dolan On Spending Plans

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Indians owner Paul Dolan held court on a variety of topics recently with Zack Meisel of The Athletic (subscription link). It’s essential reading for fans of the organization; there are a few items worth highlighting from a hot-stove perspective.

Dolan’s comments are sure to raise a few eyebrows from those who’d like to see the team spending more. After capturing a third-straight AL Central title last year, the Cleveland organization is set to enter the 2019 season with a reduced payroll.

That’s a reflection in part of the fact that there wasn’t any real postseason revenue last year, says Dolan. He claims that the team lost money last year and does so in most seasons, though annual bottom lines are subject to quite a lot of interpretation and Dolan also acknowledges that the ownership group has “seen an asset grow in a considerable value.”

Dolan indicated that the general philosophy in the Indians organization is to aim to keep open a contention window for a lengthy stretch, rather than to push in too many chips in a given year. Reaching the playoffs more often, in theory, creates more chances to win it all and tamps down on the number of lengthy losing stretches.

That’s what the team is engaged in at present, says Dolan, who says “the downside is out there somewhere.” Maximizing chances now would also mean raising the specter of a quicker and more dramatic decline. The hope, says Dolan, is that “we can put it off for as long as we possibly can.”

If it’s not clear enough already, Dolan left little doubt that huge contracts aren’t part of the plan. The Cleveland org “probably” won’t be doing any $300MM contracts — at least, he says, unless and until “somebody else is doing $1 billion deals.” He even critiqued the small-market Padres for spending $300MM on Manny Machado, saying that the club will “bump up against the issue with having so much of their payroll tied up in one guy.”

And what about the club’s own star, Francisco Lindor? Dolan says that fans should “enjoy him and then we’ll see what happens.”

There’s some conflict in some of Dolan’s positions. At one point he plainly stated that a team should never assume it is going to the postseason. Later, he cited the weak AL Central competition as part of his justification for the organization’s shopping of its elite starting pitching this winter.

“We ended up not doing it, but you heard talk about some of our elite pitchers,” said Dolan. “…we could theoretically have moved somebody there to get some upper-level talent that would have the effect of extending our window, taking our payroll down a little further, and if it took a few wins off of our expected wins this year, we probably have that buffer.”

Having failed to identify a suitable trade arrangement for Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer, and with an affordable new deal in place for Carlos Carrasco, the Indians will enter the season with their trio of veteran stalwarts still fronting the staff. They’ll also carry one of the cheapest and most questionable outfield groups in baseball. As Dolan hints, the roster is still quite a bit more talented than those of its division rivals. (The White Sox, of course, were denied the opportunity to invest in Machado.) But taking a title — and setting up in the best possible manner for the postseason — can never be taken for granted.

Some fans, surely, will be frustrated with the explanations proffered. Some, perhaps, even wish the Dolan ownership group would turn things over to another. “You just don’t know,” Dolan said on that matter. “There’s no plan not to own the team. I’ll put it that way. My parents are aging, so things could happen.”

Rockies Sign Drew Butera

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The Rockies have announced the signing of catcher Drew Butera to a minor-league deal. Other terms of the agreement are not yet known.

Having lost Tom Murphy to a waiver claim, the Colorado club was light on upper-level catching. Butera, meanwhile, was looking for a home after opting out of his deal with the Phillies.

Butera played with the Rox briefly last year, so they’re familiar with one another. He has spent most of the past nine seasons on a major-league roster, though he has rarely played with much frequency. Butera is obviously held in high regard for his steadiness behind the dish, as he carries a meager .201/.258/.299 batting line in 1,345 career plate appearances.

MLB Faith And Hope Report: 2019

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In Andrew Zimbalist’s 2006 book In The Best Interests Of Baseball?, he wrote:

“[Commissioner Bud] Selig had a pet phrase that makes considerable sense: the fans of each team need to have ’faith and hope’ that their team has a chance to win at the beginning of each season.  Without this faith and hope, fans will eventually lose interest, and the game will suffer.”

After reading that recently, I was inspired to create an annual Faith And Hope Report here at MLB Trade Rumors, so we can put a number on how many teams are competitive and track it over time.  I’ll be combining FanGraphs’ projected playoff odds with my own common sense, and there is some subjectivity involved on the borderline teams.  I’ll elaborate on those later in this post.

Teams that enter the 2019 season with faith and hope: Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Indians, Twins, Astros, Athletics, Angels, Nationals, Phillies, Mets, Braves, Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers, Reds, Pirates, Dodgers, Rockies, Padres, Diamondbacks

Teams that enter 2019 without faith and hope: Blue Jays, Orioles, White Sox, Tigers, Royals, Rangers, Mariners, Marlins, Giants

Conclusion: 70% of MLB teams have faith and hope of contending in 2019.

Arguable teams:

  • The Blue Jays carry a 76 win projection and a 3.9% chance of reaching the playoffs.  If a team has a high-70s win projection, we look at its offseason to determine its interest in winning.  The Jays’ offseason was clearly that of a club that is not pushing to win in 2019.
  • It feels like the White Sox tried to pull out of their rebuild in the 2018-19 offseason, but their pursuit of Manny Machado and other big names fell short.  Looking at the veterans they did acquire, plus a 72 win projection and 1.1% chance of making the playoffs, and the Sox deserve to be lumped in with the Tigers and Royals in baseball’s least competitive division.
  • The Rangers’ preseason projections are about the same as the White Sox.  Texas spent a fair bit of money stocking their rotation with post-Tommy John pitchers, most notably Lance Lynn.  But so many things would have to go right for this team to sniff the playoffs that we have to classify them as a team without faith and hope this year.
  • The Mariners have already snagged a couple of wins in Tokyo, pushing their projection to 76 and playoff odds to 3.6%.  GM Jerry Dipoto authored a complicated offseason that involved shipping off Jean Segura, Mike Zunino, Robinson Cano, James Paxton, Edwin Diaz, and James Pazos.  In some cases, Dipoto acquired big leaguers in return, and he also signed Yusei Kikuchi, but it’s clear the Mariners are prepared to take a step back in 2019 even if they have not committed to a multiyear rebuild.
  • The Reds have a 79 win projection, but the relative parity of the NL Central means they have a 15.7% shot at the playoffs.  Plus, the Reds were clearly in go-for-it mode during the winter, bringing in Sonny Gray, Tanner Roark, and Alex Wood to lead a retooled rotation.  They also added Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp.  An extension from the Reds will prevent Gray from reaching free agency after the winter, but all the other key acquisitions will be eligible.  Give the Reds credit: they’re trying.
  • The Pirates aren’t much better than a team like the Mariners, but the Bucs carry an 11.4% shot at the playoffs given their division.  The club had an extremely low-key offseason, missing an opportunity to more clearly position themselves as contenders.  The team did little to earn the designation of a team trying to win, but it’s still true that their fans have faith and hope entering the 2019 campaign.
  • The Diamondbacks are a lot like the Pirates: they have a 77 win projection and a 9.7% chance at the playoffs.  The team made bargain acquisitions and shipped off longtime star Paul Goldschmidt.  Still, the D’Backs focused on Major League players in return for Goldy, who was in the final year of his contract.  They are the most borderline of the borderline cases, but there’s enough chance of a long shot playoff run to put them in the “faith and hope” category.
  • I can’t say the same for the Giants, who finished second in the Bryce Harper sweepstakes and own a 73 win projection and 3.5% chance at the playoffs.  Like many of the teams listed here, I wouldn’t call the Giants a rebuilding team at present.  However, their biggest offseason move was re-signing Derek Holland, their outfield may be the game’s worst, and it’s a club without a real chance of contending.  Contrast that with the Padres, who might only be 4-5 wins better than the Giants but added a superstar player in Manny Machado and will conceivably look to add this summer rather than subtract.

Orioles Select Contract Of Jesus Sucre; Place Cobb, Trumbo On IL

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The Orioles announced a series of transactions today. Catcher Jesus Sucre was selected to the 40-man roster, with outfielder/DH Mark Trumbo being transferred to the 60-day injured list to clear space.

Right-hander Alex Cobb and backstop Austin Wynns each hit the 10-day injured list. The former, who could be of interest to contenders if he throws well in the first half of the season, is dealing with a groin strain. The latter has a strained oblique.

Sucre will pair with just-claimed receiver Pedro Severino behind the dish. Both are known for their glovework but carry subpar bats. Sucre has yet to reach two hundred plate appearances in a given season; in parts of the past six campaigns, he has compiled 654 plate appearances of .223/.259/.308 hitting. The rebuilding O’s are obviously prioritizing defense from their catching unit, which makes for a nice opportunity for both of these players to gain more extensive exposure to major-league pitching.

It had seemed that Trumbo would be able to make an earlier return from the knee surgery he underwent last fall. He made it into six games of spring action, after all. But it seems he’s not going to be ready to go for some time. Like Cobb, he’s playing on a significant contract that the Baltimore organization would no doubt love to shed in some part. But it’s tougher to see a trade path for Trumbo, a bat-only player who hasn’t excelled offensively since re-signing with the O’s.

Rangers Release Zach McAllister

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The Rangers announced that they’ve given right-hander Zach McAllister his unconditional release. It’s a somewhat surprising development given that McAllister had signed a Major League contract with Texas in the offseason and enjoyed a solid Spring Training to date. In a dozen Cactus League innings, he’s allowed four runs on 12 hits and two walks with 10 strikeouts.

With McAllister now out of the fold, the locks for the Texas bullpen include Jose Leclerc, Jesse Chavez, Shawn Kelley, Chris Martin and Jeffrey Springs (the latter of whom was informed last week he’d made the team). Right-hander Jeanmar Gomez is also in line to make the roster following the sudden retirement of Jason Hammel. Out-of-options righty Connor Sadzeck, presumably, is a candidate to open the year in new skipper Chris Woodward’s bullpen as well, though offseason acquisition Kyle Bird is also still in camp.

McAllister, 31, struggled through an awful 2018 campaign with the Indians and Tigers, posting a combined 6.20 ERA in 45 innings of relief between the two clubs. He did turn in a quality 39-to-10 K/BB ratio in that time, though, and McAllister’s 95.3 mph average fastball velocity was as strong as ever. Prior to that ugly season, McAllister was a mainstay in the Cleveland bullpen from 2015-17, where he worked to a 2.99 ERA with 10.0 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9 through 183 1/3 innings of relief.

Blue Jays Sign Daniel Hudson

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March 25: The Blue Jays have now announced the signing. To make room on the 40-man roster, second baseman Devon Travis was placed on the 60-day injured list. Travis was already headed for the 10-day IL following surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his left knee, but it’s now clear that he’ll miss at least the first two months of the season.

March 24, 4:57pm: Davidi adds in a subsequent tweet that Hudson will receive a $1.5MM base salary, with the ability to earn another $1.5MM in bonuses.

11:52am: The Blue Jays have agreed to a one-year, major league contract with reliever Daniel Hudson, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. Hudson is a client of Jet Sports Management.

It was a short stay in team-less limbo for Hudson, whom the Angels released from his minor league contract Friday. Hudson struggled during the spring as a member of the Halos, with whom he allowed five earned runs and three home runs over 6 2/3 innings. But that didn’t deter Toronto, whose bullpen has been in flux of late. The Blue Jays just said goodbye to John Axford and have been dealing with injuries to fellow relievers Ryan Tepera and Bud Norris.

Hudson, a hard-throwing, 32-year-old journeyman, spent last season with the Dodgers and posted a 4.11 ERA/4.38 FIP with 8.61 K/9, 3.52 BB/9 and a 37.2 percent groundball rate over 46 innings. It was the latest passable showing from Hudson, who owns a 4.58 ERA/4.02 FIP with 8.98 K/9, 3.58 BB/9 over 241 2/3 lifetime frames as a reliever.

Giants Designate Merandy Gonzalez For Assignment

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The Giants announced that they’ve designated right-hander Merandy Gonzalez for assignment. His spot on the 40-man roster will go to catcher Tom Murphy, whose previously reported waiver claim has now been formally announced by the team. San Francisco claimed Gonzalez off waivers from the Marlins back at the beginning of March.

Gonzalez, 23, made his MLB debut with the Marlins in 2018 having been previously acquired in the trade that sent AJ Ramos from Miami to the Mets. In his first 22 innings of MLB work, Gonzalez struggled to the tune of a 5.73 ERA as he allowed 31 hits with a 19-to-8 K/BB ratio. That debut came on the heels of a pedestrian season in Double-A, where he logged a 4.32 ERA over the life of 14 starts (73 innings) with unsightly averages of 5.8 strikeouts and 4.1 walks per nine innings pitched.

Gonzalez, who averaged 93.7 mph on his fastball in last season’s debut, made one scoreless appearance with a strikeout with the Giants before being optioned to Triple-A. The Giants will now have a week to trade him or try to pass him throughout outright waivers themselves, as the Marlins failed to do earlier in the month. If he does clear waivers this time around, he’d remain with the organization as a depth piece in the upper minors.

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