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Archives for February 2019

Giants Discussing 10-Year Deal With Bryce Harper

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8:10pm: ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets that the Dodgers’ interest in Harper is still “predicated on [a] short-term deal,” though he adds that the Giants are indeed in “heavy” on Harper.

1:26pm: All of the teams still engaged with Harper’s camp — including, presumably, the Dodgers and Phillies — have discussed contracts of at least one decade in length, per Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter).

1:16pm: The sides are discussing a ten-year deal, per Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. Salary levels are not known, but Pavlovic says the Giants’ offer would “likely give Harper a chance at the record dollar figure he has been looking for.”

11:48am: The Giants met again yesterday with Bryce Harper, according to a report from Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group. CEO Larry Baer and president of baseball operations made a return trek to Las Vegas.

This news is all the more notable given that the rival Dodgers have jumped into the mix on Harper. Having now met twice with Harper and agent Scott Boras, it seems the San Francisco organization remains a serious pursuer.

The Phillies are also continuing their efforts to land the prized free agent, who is surely hoping to spark a late bidding war. Philadelphia is reportedly willing to commit over $300MM in a deal, with one other (as-yet-unidentified) team perhaps also playing in that range.

There had been “optimism” that the Phils would work out a deal by this point, but more recent developments have kept the door open to other organizations. As a Vegas native, Harper may well prefer to land on the west coast, though that’s all still guesswork even at this late stage of the market proceedings.

It’s possible we’re seeing some final positioning here from the remaining suitors. Whether the last bidding is underway isn’t known, but there have been indications that Harper will make a call this week and it stands to reason that he’d prefer to get into camp sooner than later.

Mets Notes: Wheeler, Alonso, Smith, Rivera

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Zack Wheeler tells SNY’s John Harper that the Mets have yet to approach him about a contract extension, adding that while’s he’s open to talks and hopes to remain with the team, any contract “would have to be right on my end” given his proximity to free agency. Harper’s piece has extensive quotes from Wheeler, who sounds earnest in his desire to stay with the Mets but not necessarily at a discounted rate with free agency on the horizon next winter. Wheeler says his representatives have pointed out to him that he’ll be among the market’s youngest starters alongside Gerrit Cole next season, which bodes well for him. Of course, it should be noted that Alex Wood is younger than both and that the market is currently set to feature some big fish who are slightly older (e.g. Madison Bumgarner, Chris Sale) and substantially older but nonetheless elite (e.g. Justin Verlander).

All that said, if Wheeler can come within a stone’s throw of his utterly dominant finish to the season — 2.06 ERA, 2.71 FIP, 8.9 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 0.45 HR/9, 44.8 percent grounder rate over his final 100 2/3 innings — he should indeed be poised for a strong payday. And, as Harper points out, the Mets’ farm is hardly teeming with high-end prospects to replace him.

Here’s more from Queens (er… from Port St. Lucie)…

  • Newsday’s David Lennon previews the Mets’ upcoming decision with first base prospect Pete Alonso (who has evidently dropped the “r” from his first name in favor of a monosyllabic moniker). The young slugger looked largely ready for a big league promotion last September, and his representatives were among the numerous agents throughout the league who decried what indeed looked to be another case of service time manipulation when Alonso did not receive an MLB call-up. With Jed Lowrie and Todd Frazier ailing, though, Alonso’s bat could be all the more necessary. Meanwhile, new general manager Brodie Van Wagenen and manager Mickey Callaway have indicated that a player’s destination at the end of camp will be based on merit and nothing more. If Alonso has a strong spring effort, he’d put that to the test. The Mets would only need to send him down for just over two weeks to buy an extra year of team control, though the NL East figures to be ferociously competitive in ’19, so there’s every reason for all four presumptive contenders to put forth their best rosters right off the bat come Opening Day.
  • Dominic Smith chatted with Kyle Glaser of Baseball America on Tuesday and discussed changes to his offseason diet and workout programs as well as the extensive work he’s done in terms of watching video and making mechanical alterations to his swing. Once heralded as the Mets’ first baseman of the future, Smith has been leapfrogged for the time being by Alonso, though at just 23 years of age, he spoke confidently about the room for growth his youth still provides. Smith also discussed the “mixed emotions” of watching the Mets add pieces throughout the winter, explaining that the increased competition adds a level of excitement and energy to camp that hasn’t been there the past few seasons. Even after a down season in 2018, Smith is a career .300/.361/.460 hitter in 875 Triple-A plate appearances.
  • Infielder T.J. Rivera, who missed the entire 2018 season following 2017 Tommy John surgery, is “having trouble getting over the hump” in his rehab from that procedure, Callaway told reporters (Twitter link via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). The now-30-year-old Rivera is still experiencing discomfort in his elbow and doesn’t appear close to seeing action in a Grapefruit League contest, DiComo notes. While Rivera hasn’t been considered a likely factor in the team’s Opening Day infield mix anyway, the fact that he’s still not ready for game action is of more note with veterans Jed Lowrie and Todd Frazier sidelined by respective knee and oblique issues. The Mets still have depth with Jeff McNeil, Amed Rosario, Robinson Cano, Alonso Smith and J.D. Davis as options around the infield, to say nothing of non-roster invitee Adeiny Hechavarria.

NL Central Notes: Martinez, Hamels, Diaz

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Carlos Martinez’s right shoulder is a major source of uncertainty for the Cardinals right now, as the righty was in camp with his arm in a sling yesterday following a platelet-rich plasma injection. Martinez was already halfway through a two-week shutdown when he received the injection, and the Cardinals indicated yesterday that said injection could push his timeline for throwing back another week. There’s been ample talk of Martinez pitching in a relief capacity this season, but Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch quotes Martinez as plainly and confidently stating, “I’m going to start, man.” Because Martinez won’t resume throwing until mid-March, it seems virtually impossible for him to build up to a starter’s workload by the team’s season opener on March 28. As such, if there is indeed a plan for Martinez to work in the rotation, he’d need to start the season on the injured list. As Hummel writes, that’d open the door for one of Dakota Hudson or Austin Gomber to step into the starting five to begin the season. Manager Mike Shildt praised both Hudson and Gomber when discussing potential rotation options with Hummel.

Elsewhere in the NL Central…

  • Asked about his future in the game Wednesday, Cubs lefty Cole Hamels told a flock of reporters that he has zero intention of retiring anytime soon (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand). There’s been little reason to think that Hamels, who just turned 35 in December, would give serious consideration to retirement, but his answer was nonetheless entertaining and telling of his goals. Hamels gave a blunt “Hell no!” when asked if he’s considered retirement and voiced a desire to play until he’s 45 years old, noting that he was a teammate of ageless wonder Jamie Moyer early in his career. Hamels had a rocky start to the season with the Rangers in 2018 but was revitalized by a trade to Chicago, as he pitched to a brilliant 2.36 ERA with 8.7 K.9, 2.7 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9 and a 47.7 percent grounder rate in 76 1/3 innings with the Cubs (12 starts).
  • Pirates catcher Elias Diaz is battling a viral illness, and it’s questionable whether he’ll be ready for Opening Day, as Nubyjas Wilborn of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes. Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said that Diaz will be shut down from baseball activity for “a couple of weeks.” The 28-year-old Diaz quietly enjoyed somewhat of a breakout season in 2018, hitting .286/.339/.452 with 10 homers and a dozen doubles in just 277 plate appearances. He’s still firmly behind Francisco Cervelli on the team’s depth chart, but with Cervelli entering the final season of his current contract, the 2019 campaign could be a proving grounds for Diaz as he eyes the starter’s job in 2019. Presumably, 29-year-old Jacob Stallings would serve as Cervelli’s backup early in the year if Diaz isn’t ready to go, as he’s the only other catcher on Pittsburgh’s 40-man roster. The Bucs have minor league veteran Steven Baron in camp on a minor league deal as well.

Miguel Andujar Hires Octagon

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Yankees third baseman Miguel Andujar has hired Octagon to serve as his representation, per Robert Murray of The Athletic (via Twitter). You can find all updated agency relationships in MLBTR’s Agency Database.

Andujar, who’ll soon turn 24, turned in an exciting 2018 season in which he narrowly missed a Rookie of the Year nod. Despite 27 home runs and a .297/.328/.527 batting line over 606 plate appearances, Andujar placed second in the American League voting to the unique Shohei Ohtani.

With just over a year of MLB service on his ledger, Andujar won’t be eligible for arbitration until at least 2021 — with three more years to go from that point before potential free agency. Unless surprise extension talks come up, there won’t be much in the way of near-term contract negotiations. But he’ll surely ask his new reps to explore marketing opportunities befitting a young slugger who plays on the game’s biggest stage.

Kris Bryant: No Extension Talks With Cubs But Willing To Listen

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Star Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant discussed some largely hypothetical contractual matters today with reporters including Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune. Notably, he has not been approached by the organization about a potential long-term deal.

Bryant, 27, saw his productivity dip in an injury-limited 2018 campaign. But that’s only against his own lofty standards. Bryant, who’ll earn $12.9MM this year with two more arb seasons still to come, still rates among the best all-around players in baseball.

There was perhaps some reason to wonder whether the Cubs might see an opportunity to explore an extension, but that hasn’t happened yet. Bryant says he’d “be dumb not to hear anything they have to offer,” so it seems he’d be receptive to holding talks, though it also stands to reason that he’d put a lofty asking price on his future rights.

From a broader perspective, Bryant suggested that the recent extension of Nolan Arenado was a promising development in a player market that is still adjusting to the current collective bargaining agreement. “It’s nice to see another third baseman sign for that much,” he said.

Though Bryant is in quite a different situation than Arenado, who’s only ten months older and would have been a free agent after the coming season, the just-inked contract certainly bears on a hypothetical extension for the former. Bryant is arguably a slightly superior player, after all, and both sides would likely see the AAV on Arenado’s bought-out free-agent seasons as a highly relevant comp.

Zooming out yet further, Bryant also emphasized the fact that smaller-market teams have given out some of the biggest contracts in recent years. Players, he suggests, are well aware of teams’ spending capacities: “Everybody has money. We’re not stupid.”

Latest On Astros’ Rotation Battle

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Astros righty Josh James has been diagnosed with a strained right quad, skipper A.J. Hinch told reporters including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (links to Twitter). The injury “probably takes [James] out of the conversation” for the club’s final rotation spot, per Hinch.

Fortunately, there’s no reason to believe this injury is of long-term concern. To the contrary, James will remain a candidate to break camp on the MLB roster in a relief role. James, who is days away from his 26th birthday, showed eye-popping stuff in both capacities during a brief but exciting 2018 debut.

So, how will the club fill out its rotation? Hinch specifically ruled out some of the club’s most-hyped young arms, making clear that Forrest Whitley, Corbin Martin, and J.B. Bukauskas are still not prepared to jump up to the MLB level (at least as starters).

Rome suggests that there is still a fair bit of competition. Brad Peacock is certainly the most experienced option. He’ll try to fend off younger hurlers Framber Valdez, Brady Rodgers, Cionel Perez, and Rogelio Armenteros.

Until he signs elsewhere, of course, southpaw Dallas Keuchel remains at least a hypothetical possibility. The veteran starter and the Astros’ brass have kept the door open to a return in their public comments, though it seems he’s still hoping to secure a larger commitment from another club.

Recent History Of March Signings

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March is just around the corner. If you hadn’t noticed, a fair number of notable players remain unsigned. The very top of MLBTR’s pre-winter top-fifty free agent list remains well-represented on the open market, with a smattering of other notable players also still unsigned. This represents a continuation of the surge of late signings observed last winter, which was the first offseason conducted under the current collective bargaining agreement.

It’s not hard to see that the market is functioning differently under the new CBA. Here’s a listing of the most notable players who’ve yet to sign this year, alongside the recent history of MLB contracts inked during the month of March:

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

Service Time Perspectives: Vlad, Bryant, Senzel

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With camp in full swing, we’re watching some of the game’s very best prospects share the field with existing big leaguers. That creates opportunity both for excitement at the youngsters’ eventual regular-season ascent and consternation at the anticipated timing thereof. As teams near decision points on another crop of players, with accusations of service-time manipulation already lurking, let’s take a look at some interesting recent comments on prospect promotion timing:

  • Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins discussed uber-prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. today in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (audio via Twitter). Citing the organization’s focus on “development,” Atkins says of Guerrero: “I just don’t see him as a major league player.” While the consensus top prospect in baseball “has accomplished everything he can accomplish as an offensive player” in the minors, Atkins says, there’s evidently more he needs to work on before he’s to be trusted with a big league job. That includes “the physical aspect, the baserunning, the defense,” per the GM. (That first point represents a nod at Guerrero’s shape, John Lott of The Athletic suggests on Twitter.) The Toronto organization wants Guerrero to “start[] with an incredible foundation” once he reaches the majors so that it can “tap into all of that potential,” says Atkins. Some projection systems already regard Guerrero as one of the most capable hitters on the planet, even without having seen him against MLB pitching, so there’s no question of his readiness in that regard. The Jays, though, purport to believe that the other aspects of his game can benefit more from further game action at the Triple-A level.
  • There are certainly those who’d take a skeptical view of the true motivations where Guerrero and others are concerned. Cubs star Kris Bryant is among them, as Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports (subscription link). Bryant believes the annual top-prospect hold-back represents an effort by teams to exploit “a loophole in the system.” His own promotion timeline more or less represents the most outwardly obvious service-time manipulation imaginable: Bryant was a polished, well-rounded college player who had laid waste to the upper minors and Cactus League pitching and was called upon as soon as the team secured the ability to control him for a full additional season. “It’s funny how obvious it can be,” said Bryant. “But now I can look back on it and just laugh about it because I was told to work on my defense too and I think I got three groundballs in those games that I played,” he added. The Chicago third baseman says that solving the issue will require “compromise” and “a logical solution,” noting that changes to free agent outcomes also serve to highlight the concerns for players.
  • Another much-hyped young player, top Reds prospect Nick Senzel, also has adopted a realistic (bordering on jaded) perspective as he nears his debut. He tells C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic (subscription link) that he’s skeptical whether he really has a chance to head north out of camp with the MLB club. “Do I believe it? No,” he said of the Reds’stated intention to carry their best roster out of the gate without reference to service time. “But that’s just my honest opinion. We’ll see.” The Reds do have cover in this case, as Senzel’s 2018 season was cut short by injury and he’s transitioning to a new position, though he could put any questions to rest over the next few weeks. It’s particularly frustrating in Senzel’s case, Rosencrans notes, because he was on track to receive a late-2018 call-up before suffering a broken index finger that cost him the second half of last year.

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Nolan Arenado Extension

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Rockies star Nolan Arenado has been a consistent star on both sides of the ball for some time now. He’ll turn 28 early in the 2019 season, meaning that his monster new contract runs through his age-35 season.

It’s easy to like the Rockies’ decision at first glance. Arenado joins Charlie Blackmon as a homegrown star who’ll stick around through his prime. The organization clearly intends to keep a contention window propped open for some time, even if that means committing to some rather lofty spending levels. With other talent on hand, and more intriguing players filtering up through the system, a sustained run of competitiveness is perhaps within reach.

The risks, though, lurk just below the surface. Blackmon took a step back in 2019 and the team has some other hefty commitments to underperforming players. The club will open the 2019 season with over $140MM on the books for the first time and already has north of $110MM obligated for 2020, along with $70MM or so for the following season. Arbitration obligations will rise as well.

Arenado’s deal sets an AAV record for position players and is unquestionably a major commitment. It gives him full no-trade protection, so the Rockies may find it challenging to move the deal if that proves necessary. The team granted Arenado the ability to bail out and test the open market after three seasons, too, meaning he holds the upside with ample downside protection as well. While Arenado would have had a chance to beat seven years and $234MM in free agency next winter, it’s tough to say that represents any kind of discount, particularly when locked in a year in advance.

Paying market value doesn’t mean the Rox were misguided, of course. By doing so now, they kept other clubs from out-bidding or otherwise wooing their best and most popular player. There was obviously a significant risk of being forced to choose between losing Arenado or paying a fair bit more to retain him, particularly with numerous big-market clubs reputedly eyeing him as a target.

All things considered, how do you grade the deal from the Rockies’ perspective? (Link for app users.)

Central Injury Notes: Darvish, Gray, Duffy, Dunning

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Though he was clearly carrying plenty of rust, Cubs righty Yu Darvish nevertheless turned in a rather promising first spring outing today, as MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian writes. Darvish says he felt great and the radar guns reflected it. While he struggled a bit to stay in the zone, that’s a secondary concern at this point given the major health ailments that ruined his 2018 season. With $101MM still owed to Darvish over the next five years, the Cubs have to be encouraged to see him feeling strong, though he still has a ways to go to reestablish himself as a front-line starter.

More health notes from the central divisions …

  • Reds right-hander Sonny Gray, who was scratched from his spring debut due to some elbow stiffness, is expected to throw a bullpen session Thursday, writes MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. The team’s most notable offseason addition to the rotation, Gray will also throw from flat ground at a distance of 120 feet today, per the Cincinnati Enquirer’s John Fay (Twitter link). Manager David Bell told Feinsand that Gray was initially concerned about the elbow discomfort but is in vastly better spirits and has felt improvement each day since being scratched. For the time being, it seems, the Reds have decreasing reason to be concerned about Gray’s status.
  • The Royals are “backing off” from using Danny Duffy for the time being, manager Ned Yost tells reporters (Twitter links via Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star). The southpaw experienced tightness in his shoulder and had difficulty getting loose for his latest side session, though he eventually completed that session. Duffy feels it’s a minor issue and some standard-issue early spring stiffness. The Royals are already down a rotation candidate with righty Trevor Oaks perhaps headed for hip surgery, and subtracting arguably their most talented starter from the mix would be a considerably more damaging blow. Duffy, 30, struggled through a down season in 2018 but was Kansas City’s best arm in 2016-17 when he worked to a 3.64 ERA with 8.8 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9 in 326 innings.
  • There was some ominous news out of White Sox camp, as Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com tweets that pitching prospect Dane Dunning is due for a closer medical look after experiencing forearm discomfort. The talented young righty has shown quite well ever since he cracked the professional ranks and entered the 2018 campaign as a consensus top-100 prospect leaguewide. Unfortunately, he missed half of the 2018 season owing to an elbow sprain. The hope was that Dunning would be able to pick up where he left off this spring.

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