Archives for January 2019

MLBTR Readers’ Mock Hall Of Fame Ballot

By Jeff Todd | January 22, 2019 at 1:11pm CDT

The votes are in, but it remains to be seen who has been elected to baseball’s Hall of Fame. Official results will be revealed this evening. In the meantime, those with interest are left to examine the ballot-counting efforts of Ryan Thibodaux (@NotMrTibbs). Here’s his updated spreadsheet for reference as to what is publicly known at this time, representing just over half of the total ballots. If you’re interested in what those data points predict, check out this post from Ryan Pollock of The Hardball Times.

While it’s hardly our core area of coverage, we thought we’d get in on the fun and allow our readers a chance to have a quick say as to who ought to be inducted this year. For these purposes, we’ll include only those players who have received more than five percent of the actual tally documented to this point. (That’s also the threshold those players will need to clear to stay on the ballot for another season.) That limits the field a bit, but you’ll have the opportunity to pick as many candidates as you like, whereas BBWAA members are limited to ten selections annually. (Fangraphs recently released the results of its own crowdsourced ballot, unsullied by the ensuing partial release of actual voting results and under conditions much more closely approximating the real thing.)

Here’s the poll, with response order randomized. This is just for fun, of course, but hopefully it’ll still be interesting to see where MLBTR readers land on the story of the day. (Link for app users.)

The poll is now closed. Only two players landed on a high-enough percentage of ballots to crack the 75% barrier:

Mariano Rivera	99.11%
Roy Halladay	76.97%
Edgar Martinez	70.85%
Mike Mussina	55.66%
Barry Bonds	55.07%
Roger Clemens	55.05%
Curt Schilling	43.32%
Fred McGriff	39.45%
Larry Walker	39.12%
Manny Ramirez	27.25%
Todd Helton	23.64%
Omar Vizquel	21.62%
Jeff Kent	21.17%
Billy Wagner	20.80%
Andy Pettitte	18.76%
Andruw Jones	18.72%
Scott Rolen	18.71%
Gary Sheffield	18.46%
Sammy Sosa	15.01%

AL East Notes: Sanchez, Thornburg, Orioles

By Jeff Todd and Steve Adams | January 22, 2019 at 10:10am CDT

It has been a confounding few years for Blue Jays righty Aaron Sanchez, who has seen his promising career sidetracked by a series of finger problems. Of course, at just 26 years of age, there’s still every chance he can regain his trajectory — so long, that is, if he’s able to get back to full health. As John Lott of The Athletic examines (subscription required), Sanchez is preparing for Spring Training with ample optimism after undergoing surgery on his right index finger last fall. He first threw earlier this month but says he feels immense improvement already. Lott explains that Sanchez has found initial success with a steady, daily stretching program to prepare his joints — one that’ll need to be integrated into a new, broader preparation regime once camp opens (and the season begins thereafter). Pitching through pain last year, Sanchez exhibited some velocity loss and a distinct lack of effectiveness. Though he actually managed a career-high 9.5% swinging-strike rate, due perhaps to ramped-up usage of his change at the expense of his once-dominant sinker, Sanchez drew less grounders than usual (a still-strong 49.1%) and struggled with free passes (5.0 per nine) as he struggled to stay in the zone (career-worst 40.5% zone rate). Needless to say, it would benefit both the Jays and Sanchez himself quite a bit if he’s able to author a turnaround. He’s slated to earn $3.9MM in his second-to-last season of team control.

A few more notes from the AL East …

Speaking of injured hurlers from the division, Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe tweets that Red Sox righty Tyler Thornburg began his offseason throwing program earlier than usual this winter, adding that Thornburg’s shoulder has “tested out well” in the early-going. Boston has done nothing to address its bullpen this offseason after Joe Kelly left to sign with the Dodgers and Craig Kimbrel hit the open market, and if that pattern holds, they’ll need Thornburg and others to step up and contribute more than most would’ve expected heading into the offseason. Boston president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski recently went on record to suggest that he doesn’t anticipate spending heavily on a closer, and recent reports have implied that the Sox may prefer to remain south of the top luxury tax line.
There’s still very little certainty on the Orioles’ coaching staff, but Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com provides an update on a series of potential (in some cases likely) hires that could filter in as the Baltimore organization sets it staff. Kubatko writes that assistant hitting coach Howie Clark is expected to return in his previous role, while the organization may very well promote at least one staff member from the minor league ranks to help round out manager Brandon Hyde’s staff — specifically, Triple-A field coach Jose Hernandez, a 15-year MLB veteran who has since become a fixture in the O’s system. There’s other chatter in the post regarding how the Orioles may end up filling out their slate of coaches.

Central Notes: Twins, Castellanos, Bucs, Cards/Cubs

By Jeff Todd | January 22, 2019 at 8:14am CDT

The Twins’ reported agreement with left-hander Martin Perez won’t preclude them from adding further arms this offseason, writes Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. “I think there are still some guys on the board that are interesting, certainly that could fit, so we remain engaged with those,” chief baseball officer Derek Falvey tells Helfand. Falvey wouldn’t rule out adding another pitcher on a big league deal, acknowledging that the team has some payroll flexibility — especially relative to the previous levels at which they’ve spent.

Somewhat surprisingly, La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune tweets that the Twins are indeed viewing Perez as a starting pitcher. Perez is coming off a season in which he ranked in the bottom one percent of strikeout rate and opponents’ weighted on-base average among big league pitchers in 2018. Perez is still just 27, was once a well-regarded prospect and is a known commodity for GM Thad Levine (formerly an assistant GM in Texas), but the Twins weren’t short on options for the fifth spot in the rotation. Adalberto Mejia, Fernando Romero, Stephen Gonsalves, Tyler Duffey, Kohl Stewart and Zack Littell were all already on the 40-man roster, but the Twins are seemingly more comfortable with Perez as a back-of-the-rotation option early in 2019 than any of that bunch.

West Notes: Dodgers, Angels, Ichiro

By Jeff Todd and Steve Adams | January 21, 2019 at 11:26pm CDT

The Dodgers remain something of an enigma as Spring Training approaches. It’s possible to imagine the organization making any number of moves over the next few weeks, with so many opportunities still available on the market. At several areas on the roster, the team could conceivably either make an external move or utilize existing players. There is, however, an overarching need for a right-handed hitter, per manager Dave Roberts (via Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times). While the skipper hardly gave much away, he did say that he believes there are more moves to come. And Roberts, at least, would like to see one transaction that would “kind of balance out the lineup with a right-handed bat.”

Here’s more from out west …

Angels GM Billy Eppler told reporters following his team’s signing of right-hander Cody Allen that the Halos had to “stretch” the budget and were only able to do so with the blessing of owner Arte Moreno (link via Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register). As such, it seems unlikely that there are any other sizable moves on the horizon for the Angels. Eppler explained that the team was undeterred by Allen’s inflated 4.70 ERA last offseason, citing Allen’s long ninth-inning track record and plainly stating that the organization fully anticipates Allen serving as the closer in 2019.
Though Ichiro Suzuki has widely been expected to receive a send-off from the Mariners during the club’s season-opening series in Japan, Jim Allen of Kyodo News writes that the legendary outfielder doesn’t necessarily see things that way. Rather, per agent John Boggs, the aging but impeccably conditioned veteran is “working toward playing the whole season.” It’s a bit tough to imagine any MLB club giving Ichiro a guaranteed contract, but perhaps the 45-year-old still has another trick up his sleeve. He’ll have a chance to show his form in camp with Seattle, at least. Beyond the news item here, the article is well worth a read for Allen’s chat with Boggs about his famously unique client.

DeWitt: Cardinals Interested In Long-Term Deal With Paul Goldschmidt

By Jeff Todd | January 21, 2019 at 9:03pm CDT

Though the Cardinals may not have many further additions to make to their 2019 roster, that doesn’t mean the club’s offeason business is complete. In comments today, as MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch was among those to report, owner Bill DeWitt Jr. made clear that the organization has serious interest in keeping newly acquired first baseman Paul Goldschmidt beyond the coming campaign.

It’s certainly not a surprise to hear that the Cards have interest in a long-term arrangement, though it certainly could have been the case that the team would instead have taken more of a wait-and-see position. Foreseeable though it may have been, it is notable that the Cards are seemingly embarking upon an extension effort (or at least, are laying the groundwork for one) at this early juncture.

Negotiations, it seems, likely haven’t begun. But DeWitt and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak made clear that they fully intend to pursue contract talks, perhaps as soon as this spring.

“We’d love to have him here longer than one year,” said DeWitt, “and we’ll just see how that plays out.” He went on to hint at the Cardinals’ thinking on the initial decision to acquire Goldschmidt in a deal that cost young, controllable, MLB-level talent: “I think worst case is we get a top Draft choice, but that’s not our goal when we trade for a player like Paul Goldschmidt.”

Though Mozeliak wasn’t quite as forthcoming, he did cite the same idea of a one-year “gamble” that DeWitt did. Clearly, the organization pulled the trigger on the trade in part due to the potential for gaining an exclusive bargaining window and recruitment opportunity.

Of course, the timing of all this is less than clear. Mozeliak did say that the first step would be to allow Goldschmidt to settle in with the club in Spring Training. Then? “Ultimately, we’ll sort of, as we round the first turn, get a better idea of what the second turn looks like,” said Mozeliak. Whether that will mean late-spring talks, negotiations during the season, and/or an effort to bring him back via free agency is at this point anyone’s guess.

It’ll certainly be interesting to see how things progress. With just one year to go until free agency, Goldschmidt is tantalizingly close to picking his own team and likely commanding a massive new deal. He’s also already 31 years of age and plays a position that teams have increasingly hesitated to invest in. Of course, Goldschmidt is hardly a common first baseman, either.

Tigers To Sign Hector Sanchez

By Jeff Todd | January 21, 2019 at 7:20pm CDT

The Tigers have agreed to a minor-league deal with backstop Hector Sanchez, according to Venezuelan journalist Ignacio Serrano (Twitter link). The contract comes with an invitation to MLB Spring Training.

Now 29 years of age, Sanchez had appeared in seven consecutive major-league campaigns before failing to earn a nod last year. Though he showed early promise, he owns only a .238/.273/.367 batting line at the game’s highest level. It’s fair to note that he’s a .267/.330/.438 hitter through eight hundred career plate appearances at Triple-A.

Sanchez had returned last year to the Giants, his original professional organization and the place he broke into the majors. Things didn’t work out, however, and he was given his release just two months into the season. Now, Sanchez will try to get back on track with a Detroit organization that has a somewhat unsettled catching situation after dropping James McCann earlier in the winter. John Hicks is the most established player on the roster, while newcomer Grayson Greiner is seen as a possible long-term piece. Sanchez joins veteran Bobby Wilson as non-roster competition and veteran depth.

Yankees To Sign Danny Farquhar

By Jeff Todd | January 21, 2019 at 5:56pm CDT

The Yankees have agreed to a minor-league deal with right-hander Danny Farquhar, according to Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter). He’ll receive an invitation to MLB camp, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand adds on Twitter.

It’s yet another bit of good news for Farquhar, who has been firmly on the upswing since a terrifying medical episode last year. He has made a remarkable recovery from a ruptured brain aneurysm — incurred in the White Sox’ dugout after an appearance in late April — and received clearance in late November to begin working back toward the mound.

Soon to turn 32, Farquhar will assuredly not enter Spring Training as a favorite to crack a loaded Yankees pen. But he could represent an interesting depth option if he’s able to pick up where he left off. Though he has not been terribly effective in recent years, Farquhar was at times a high-quality reliever for the Mariners and Rays and carries a lifetime 12.3% swinging-strike rate in the majors.

Mariners Designate Kaleb Cowart

By Jeff Todd | January 21, 2019 at 4:21pm CDT

The Mariners announced that they have designated Kaleb Cowart for assignment. His roster spot was needed to accommodate today’s acquisition of infield prospect Shed Long.

When the M’s claimed Cowart in December, the club announced that he’d come to camp not only as an infielder, but also as a pitcher. That could still be the plan, but he’ll first have to clear waivers if he’s to remain with the Seattle organization.

It’d certainly be interesting to see whether Cowart can carve out a dual-use role. He also seems reasonably likely to outperform his dreadful career .177/.241/.293 MLB batting line, which has come in less than four hundred plate appearances spread over four seasons. After all, he has produced strong numbers at the Triple-A level, slashing .298/.361/.469 in 1,402 total plate appearances.

Reds Acquire, Extend Sonny Gray As Part Of Three-Team Trade

By Steve Adams | January 21, 2019 at 4:15pm CDT

After several days of reporting and speculation, right-hander Sonny Gray has officially been traded from the Yankees to the Reds and also agreed to a contract extension with Cincinnati. It’s a three-team deal that also involves the Mariners. Second base prospect Shed Long and a Competitive Balance Round A pick go from the Reds to the Yankees in exchange for Gray and left-hander Reiver Sanmartin. New York, in turn, has flipped Long directly to the Mariners in return for center field prospect Josh Stowers — the Mariners’ second-round pick in the 2018 draft.

As part of the trade, Gray has agreed to a new, three-year contract extension with the Reds that’ll span the 2020-22 seasons. He’ll earn $30.5MM over those three campaigns — that’s in addition to his $7.5MM salary for the 2019 season. Along with a $500K signing bonus, the deal reportedly promises $10MM in each of its three years and also comes with a $12MM club option for the 2023 season. There are $500K worth of incentives in each new season of the deal, with that value achievable in full at 190 innings pitched, and his annual salaries can grow based on performance escalators. Gray’s contract doesn’t contain a no-trade clause but stipulates that he be paid a $1MM assignment bonus each time he is traded.

Cincinnati emerged as a front-runner to land Gray last Friday, and his addition will be the third such pickup of the Reds’ offseason, joining lefty Alex Wood and fellow righty Tanner Roark. That trio will be added to a new-look Cincinnati rotation that’s also projected to include holdovers Luis Castillo and Anthony DeSclafani. It’s a group that should give the Reds a vastly more competitive outlook in 2019 while likely pushing names such as Robert Stephenson, Brandon Finnegan, Tyler Mahle, Jackson Stephens and others out of the Major League rotation mix and either into bullpen roles or back to the minors (Stephenson, it should be noted, is out of options).

A change of scenery for Gray, 29, only makes sense after he struggled profusely with the Yankees in 2018 — particularly when pitching at Yankee Stadium. Gray posted a ghastly 6.98 ERA at home in 2018 compared to a 3.17 ERA on the road, and while there’s surely more at play in those splits than the surface-level numbers exhibit, the contrast between the two numbers is unequivocally jarring.

The Reds quite likely found it encouraging that Gray’s velocity remained consistent with its previous levels (93.8 mph average fastball), that his swinging-strike rate remained north of 10 percent and that his ground-ball tendencies (50 percent) remained above the league average. Gray actually allowed home runs at his lowest rate since 2015 as well (0.97 HR/9; 13.3% HR/FB), despite pitching more than 40 percent of his innings at the homer-friendly Yankee Stadium. Of course, he’ll be moving to a similarly hitter-friendly setting in the form of Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park, though the move to the National League should prove beneficial.

With the extension now in place, the trade of Gray differs starkly from Cincinnati’s acquisition of Wood and Roark, each of whom is a pure one-year rental. In essence, it’s a bet that the move into a lower-pressure setting could help Gray in a similar manner that Matt Harvey seemed to benefit following his own trade over from the Mets this past May. Gray, it should be noted, is not far removed from an extended run as a high-quality arm; the former No. 18 overall draft pick entered the 2018 season with a career 3.45 ERA in 770 1/3 innings, highlighted by an All-Star nod and a third-place Cy Young finish in 2015.

While it may be too much to expect for Gray to return to those lofty heights, he at the very least has the potential to help comprise a radically improved Reds rotation and gives the team some long-term stability a a time when many of the pitching prospects acquired over the course of Cincinnati’s rebuild have yet failed to pan out.

Cincinnati will also add a left-handed option to the middle levels of its farm system in the form of Sanmartin. While he wasn’t considered to be one of the organization’s top prospects, Sanmartin reached Double-A for the first time last season, at the age of 22, and pitched to an overall 2.81 ERA with a 58-to-4 K/BB ratio in 67 1/3 innings between Class-A, Class-A Advanced and Double-A. New York originally acquired Sanmartin out of the Rangers organization in a swap that sent righty Ronald Herrera to Texas.

Long, meanwhile, will head to the Mariners in a surprise development and give Seattle a prospect that is not far from big league readiness. The 23-year-old Long was a 12th-round pick by the Reds back in 2013 but has vastly outperformed that draft billing, rising to the Double-A ranks and hitting at a .261/.353/.412 clip with a dozen homers and 19 stolen bases this past season. Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs ranked Long seventh among Reds farmhands just last month, noting that the converted catcher still has some defensive question marks at second base. That said, he has the bat to profile as a regular there if he can improve his glovework, and if not, he could move to an outfield corner.

Stowers, in turn, is several years further from the point where he’d need to be added to the 40-man roster in New York. He went a round or two higher in the draft than many expected on the heels of a strong finish to his college season at Louisville, and it seems that given New York’s quick acquisition of him, the Mariners weren’t the only ones who hoped to snag him in the draft’s early rounds. The Yankees will also acquire a pick that is currently slotted in at No. 36 overall but could move a bit, depending on the outcome of the remaining free agents who rejected qualifying offers (and the subsequent draft pick compensation attached to them). The No. 36 slot last season came with a $1.967MM slot value, meaning the Yankees have likely added another $2MM+ to their bonus pool in the 2019 draft.

A trade of Gray has been expected since early in the offseason since Yankees general manager Brian Cashman openly spoke about his desire to find a change of scenery for Gray. Today’s swap gives the Yankees a rotation consisting of Luis Severino, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, J.A. Happ and CC Sabathia. With Gray no longer in the fold, the Yankees’ top depth options are Domingo German, Jonathan Loaisiga, Luis Cessa and Chance Adams. The organization likely hopes to have lefty Jordan Montgomery, who underwent Tommy John surgery early last summer, can return late in the 2019 season, though it certainly possesses ample rotation depth even if he’s shelved into the 2020 season.

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported Friday that the Reds were closing in on a deal to acquire Gray. Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweeted over the weekend that Long and the draft pick would likely be involved in the deal, if completed. Rosenthal first added that the trade could hinge on an extension. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported today that Gray had been traded, confirming Long’s inclusion and adding that he’d been flipped to Seattle for Stowers. Rosenthal reported the extension and the terms of Gray’s new contract, with Bob Nightengale of USA Today adding salary details. Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer added Sanmartin’s inclusion in the swap. Heyman tweeted the trade assignment bonus.

Projecting Payrolls: Chicago Cubs

By Rob Huff | January 21, 2019 at 3:50pm CDT

Although substantial time has passed since the last installment in this series, only the reliever market has moved in a significant way. As such, we move on to the 12th piece while the biggest fish remain unhooked. Below find the links to the earlier posts in this series.

Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Angels
Atlanta Braves
New York Yankees
Chicago White Sox
Boston Red Sox
Minnesota Twins
Milwaukee Brewers
San Francisco Giants
St. Louis Cardinals

If you have questions about financial information made available to the public and the assumptions used in this series, please refer to the Phillies piece linked above.

Today, we look into a club coming off of its best four-year stretch in franchise history and flush with cash, yet one who also appears to be fully intent to sit out free agency this winter: the Chicago Cubs.

Team Leadership

Concluding 65 years of ownership by the Wrigley family, the Tribune Company purchased the Cubs in 1981. The franchise had, incredibly, missed the playoffs for 35 straight seasons prior to the transaction. The team went on to make the postseason six times under Tribune ownership, including three times from 2003-08. The final two years of Tribune ownership were executed under the direction of Sam Zell, a real estate mogul who purchased the Tribune in late 2007. Then, in October 2009, the Ricketts family famously acquired the Cubs for $845 million. Ownership of the franchise is managed by team chairman Tom Ricketts, who authorized an aggressive tank followed by the most successful time period in Cubs history.

While the Ricketts family initially kept general manager Jim Hendry in place running the baseball operations department, they made the splashiest of splashy moves in 2011, relieving Hendry of his duties and replacing him with new President of Baseball Operations and renowned curse breaker Theo Epstein. Epstein got his band back together, bringing in former proteges Jed Hoyer and Jason McLeod to be his general manager and vice president of scouting and player development, respectively, both after two years in San Diego. The results have been undeniable: the club averaged a putrid 67 wins per year during the first three years of the Epstein regime and flipped the switch in 2015, averaging 97 per year over the next four years.

Historical Payrolls

Before hitting the numbers, please recall that we use data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we’ll use average annual value (“AAV”) on historical deals but actual cash for 2019 and beyond, and deferrals will be reflected where appropriate. And, of course, the value of examining historical payrolls is twofold: they show us either what type of payroll a team’s market can support or how significantly a given ownership group is willing to spend. In the most useful cases, they show us both. We’ll focus on a 15-year span for the Cubs, covering 2005-18 for historical data as a means to understanding year 15: 2019. This period covers two competitive windows and two ownership groups for the Cubs, and it’s not terribly difficult to see where the Ricketts-authorized tank began. We’ll also use Opening Day payrolls as those better approximate expected spending by ownership.

Payroll spiked from 2008-10 as the Cubs paid to keep their 2007-08 winners together. Publicly available reported revenue increases climbed to fuel the spending, growing from $179 million in 2005 all the way to $239 million in 2008. Of course, take all publicly available revenue figures with a significant grain of salt as only ownership and the front office truly know the finances. However, revenue largely stagnated in the following half decade, reaching only $266 million in 2013 during the tank.

What followed is difficult to describe as I’ve never seen anything like it. Revenue climbed to $302 million in 2014, $340 million in 2015, $434 million in 2016 (!), and $457 million in 2017. While 2018 revenue hasn’t yet been reported, it is entirely possible that revenue has increased more than $200 million over just five years. Striking. Seen in that light, the 2016-18 payrolls are hardly surprising.

Ricketts ownership and the Epstein-led front office have been keen to stay under the luxury tax threshold during their time in charge, exceeding the threshold only in 2016, incurring a tax of just under $3 million before staying under the threshold in each of the next two years. The Cubs have simultaneously been major players in the international market, throwing a $30 million guarantee at outfielder Jorge Soler in 2012 and following with a boisterous international class in 2013 that included young stars Gleyber Torres and Eloy Jimenez and a massive 2015 class that yielded just under $19 million in signing bonuses. Major League spending captures a significant portion of Cubs spending, but international amateur spending has been a key facet of Cubs expenditures in recent years.

Future Liabilities

Cubs spending in 2019 will surely hit a new franchise high.

That is a lot of guaranteed money.

The 2019 Cubs are spending $88 million guaranteed on starting pitching, led by $20 million-plus salaries for Lester, Hamels, and Darvish. To say that these commitments are risky is a massive understatement.

Lester has been a paragon of stability, but he has seen his FIP rise each year as a Cub, from 2.92 in 2015 to 4.39 in 2018. He’ll enter 2019 with 2,520 combined regular season and playoff innings on his odometer. He just turned 35.
Hamels pitched a year and a half to the tune of a 4.87 FIP prior to joining the Cubs at the trade deadline in 2018. He was rejuvenated with the Cubs, but he’ll enter 2019 with 2,653 combined regular season and playoff innings on his own odometer, also having just turned 35.
Darvish largely enjoyed success since arriving from Japan before a disastrous debut season with the Cubs that ended in May due to an elbow injury.
Tyler Chatwood bombed in his first year as a Cub, losing his rotation job and throwing fewer than 10 innings for the club after the trade deadline.
Jose Quintana posted a career-worst FIP of 4.43, fueled in large part by a career-worst home run rate.

Projection systems expect the Cubs rotation to be wildly successful in 2019, especially when the arbitration-eligible Kyle Hendricks is added to the fold. Still, Cubs fans are at least a bit anxious after the across-the-board struggles from 2018.

A trio of lefty hitters figure prominently on the balance sheet, two of whom will be around for years to come. Rizzo and Heyward have been lineup mainstays for years, though Rizzo has obviously been substantially more productive on the field. Unlike Rizzo and Heyward, Zobrist finds himself in a walk year in a season in which he turns 38.

The remaining notable deals are all for relief pitchers, at least four of which find themselves staring down free agency come November. In a highly competitive 2019 National League Central division, the team will need strong production from multiple arms in the group of Morrow, Cishek, Strop, Kintzler, and Duensing.

Finally, Heyward’s signing bonus stands out as the only deferred money for the franchise. But it’s a big number: $20 million payable after his contract expires. Presumably franchise revenue will be so astronomical in the mid-2020s so as to see this amount as largely rounding error, but $5 million is still $5 million.

As a result of stellar drafting in the early part of this decade and a trio of impact trades, the Cubs feature significant talent in the arbitration ranks, including multiple Most Valuable Player candidates and Cy Young contender.

All seven players listed above figure to play key roles for the team in 2019, though Russell finds himself mired in a mess of his own making. As the arbitration chart shows, each player is controllable for at least one year beyond 2019 as well with offensive stars Bryant, Baez, and Schwarber each controllable through 2021.

What Does Team Leadership Have to Say?

So, so, so much.

While ownership, the front office, and manager Joe Maddon have spoken at great length about the budget this offseason, comments from Tom Ricketts in recent days likely shed the most light on the spending plans. In response to questions about expected payroll, Ricketts suggested that “when you make any free-agent signing — not to pick on Darvish, but any of them — you know that you can’t spend that dollar twice and you have to budget that into the future, so that’s going to limit what you can do in the following year. And one of the things this year that we knew going into the offseason was that we weren’t going to have as much flexibility as years past.” When Ricketts moved on to discussing the team’s local tax burden, it seemed that the budget has very little, if any, room.

As we will detail below, it’s close to inevitable that the Cubs will incur a luxury tax in 2019. However, Ricketts more or less stated that the budget is tapped out, jiving with what the front office has said for months now.

In the face of big moves by the rival Cardinals and Brewers, the Cubs appear content to have their offseason largely dictated by their budget.

Are the Cubs a Player for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado?

Ummmm…honestly, I don’t know. Almost certainly not. But crazier things have happened.

The Cubs haven’t been connected to Machado at all this offseason, and given their impressive collection of infield talent, this doesn’t come as a huge surprise.

But Harper? The Cubs have been connected to Harper for years. This article humorously chronicles some of the 2017 nuggets that suggested Harper would — or wouldn’t — join the Cubs. These rumors have become par for the course. Many of the rumors have centered around the close relationship between Bryant and Harper, both Las Vegas natives.

After the Cubs surprisingly bowed out of the playoffs in quick fashion, Epstein lamented that “the offense broke,” leading to significant speculation that the Cubs would seek to add a significant bat.

Nevertheless, budgetary constraints combined with Maddon clearly stating that a Harper signing is “not going to happen” seemingly slammed the door shut on any pursuit.

Despite all of the above, Chicago Sun-Times writer Gordon Wittenmyer commented in December that sources indicated that the Cubs front office requested that Harper and his agent, Scott Boras, come back to the team before Harper decides to sign elsewhere in order to give the Cubs a chance to make a final play for the young star.

What Will the 2019 Payroll Be?

Well, it’ll be a new team record, that’s for sure. But just how high will it go?

Currently, team payroll comes in at $202.1 million before accounting for the luxury tax. If spending sticks approximately where it currently stands, the team figures to incur a luxury tax of approximately $4.4 million based on a luxury tax payroll figure of just under $228 million and a 20 percent tax on the overage.

So how much room is there for additional expenditures? I suspect that ownership would push total spending up around $220 million given the need for an in-season acquisition or two. Given that, don’t expect to see additional expenditures prior to the start of the season save for a possible minimal commitment to a backup catcher or a reliever.

Projected 2019 Payroll: $210 million

Projected 2019 Payroll Space: $2.9 million

If you’d like to go even further down the rabbit hole of Cubs payrolls, I refer you to my series of articles that have appeared on The Athletic going into tremendous detail on team spending.

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