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2019 Amateur Draft

Latest On Marlins’ Draft Signing Efforts

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After a few recent deals hit the books, the Marlins were left with the two top remaining unsigned players from June’s Rule 4 amateur draft. Fourth overall choice J.J. Bleday and #35 draftee Kameron Misner have yet to agree to terms, though it seems there’s general optimism — for the former, in particular — that they’ll end up signing on.

The deadline for reaching agreement is July 12th at 5pm eastern. It’s not at all infrequent to see a few nail-biters, though this signing season has been notably free of drama. After Bleday and Misner, the loftiest selection that isn’t yet in the books is 67th overall pick Josh Smith (Yankees).

President of baseball operations Michael Hill did not express any concern with the two key draft pieces, both of whom were star collegiate outfielders. “We’re encouraged with both, and hope to get it taken care of and get them out as soon as possible,” he tells MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro.

In the case of Bleday, who just wrapped up a championship run with Vanderbilt, it seems it may only be a matter of time before he’s under contract. Frisaro tweets that a deal is “getting closer to being finalized” while MLB Network’s Jon Heyman says in his own tweet that the sides are “moving toward a deal.” Both indicate that the bonus is likely to be right near the slot value of $6,664,000.

As for Misner, a competitive balance round A selection who hails from the University of Missouri, there seems at least to be a bit more uncertainty. Heyman says that the Marlins are “believed” to have made an at-slot offer of $2,095,800. Misner and his reps may be running the clock in hopes of commanding more, but it’s not clear whether that’s even a realistic possibility. There’s no indication at present that he’d consider returning to school; as Frisaro rightly notes, that’s a risky option for a college junior.

By my count, the Marlins have spent to the limits of their existing bonus pool. They saved on several players but went over slot for second-rounder Nasim Nunez and fifth-rounder Evan Fitterer. Teams can exceed the allocated values by 5% without sacrificing any future draft picks; tallying the MLB.com tracker bonuses and adding that padding to the already signed players puts the Fish at about $7K shy of the line. In other words: there’s no room to pay one of their two remaining unsigned players more than their slot value unless the other takes less.

Top Remaining Unsigned Draft Picks

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By the terms of MLB Rule 4(d)(4), the deadline for signing players selected in last month’s Rule 4 draft is July 12th at 5pm Eastern time. In most years, virtually all top draft choices agree to terms, but there are quite often one or more exceptions. Last year, for instance, the Braves failed to line up with eighth overall pick Carter Stewart.

With ten days to go, there’s still plenty of time. Several players only just wrapped up their collegiate seasons — particularly those that made it to the College World Series final between Vandy and Michigan. But if there’s to be a high-profile failure to reach agreement, it’ll come from among these, the highest picks who have yet to put pen to paper (through the third round):

  • (4) Marlins: J.J. Bleday, OF, Vanderbilt University ($6.66MM slot value)
  • (8) Rangers: Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Tech University ($5.18MM slot value)
  • (31) Dodgers: Michael Busch, 2B, University of North Carolina ($2.31MM slot value)
  • (35) Marlins: Kameron Misner, OF, University of Missouri ($2.10MM slot value)
  • (41) Rangers: Davis Wendzel, 3B, Baylor University ($1.81MM slot value)
  • (67) Yankees: Josh Smith, 2B, Louisiana State University ($976K slot value)
  • (74) Diamondbacks: Tommy Henry, LHP, University of Michigan ($844K slot value)
  • (77) Rockies: Karl Kauffmann, RHP, University of Michigan ($805K slot value)
  • (78) Dodgers: Jimmy Lewis, RHP, Lake Travis High School, Texas ($793K slot value)
  • (99) Rays: Shane Sasaki, OF, Iolani High School, Hawaii ($587K slot value)

Astros Notes: Bullpen, James, White, Draft

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The latest out of Houston…

  • It has widely been expected that the Astros will target rotation help at the deadline, though Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle wonders if the club could also look at acquiring a reliever.  There isn’t much wrong on paper with the Astros’ relief corps, as they rank first in the league in bullpen WHIP, second in hits/9, and third in bullpen ERA, though there is some uncertainty at the back end.  Josh James has been inconsistent this season, while Rome notes that Hector Rendon didn’t pitch well down the stretch in 2018.  There also isn’t much left-handed depth beyond Cionel Perez and reverse-splits specialist Will Harris.
  • Speaking of James, he left last night’s game for what he described as “a precautionary move” due to lat tightness, Rome tweets, and James didn’t consider the issue to be serious.  The 26-year-old has a stunning 14.4 K/9 this season, usually operating as a multi-inning weapon out of Houston’s pen, though James has had troubles with the long ball (1.7 HR/9) and his control (5.9 BB/9).  As a result, James only has a 4.71 ERA to show for all his missed bats.
  • The Astros are close to getting a lot of notable stars back from the injured list, which Rome feels could lead to something of a roster crunch.  Tyler White could be the odd man out, as he hasn’t hit this season and offers little defensive value apart from his current status as the Astros’ only backup first baseman.  These issues also make the out-of-options White difficult to trade, though given his strong minor league numbers and the .888 OPS he posted for the Astros over 237 PA just last season, one would think another team would make a claim if White was indeed designated for assignment.  Tony Kemp is another player whose role could be diminished once Houston’s regulars are healthy, though Kemp’s on-base ability and defensive versatility seemingly give him the leg up on White if a choice had to be made.
  • In a separate piece from Rome, he writes about the Astros’ attempts to free up enough room within their $5,355,100 draft bonus pool to sign fourth-round pick Colin Barber.  The 136th overall pick has a $410.1K slot price, though Barber reportedly wants more to break his commitment to the University of Oregon.  Barber’s asking price isn’t known, though Houston has already carved out approximately $645K in pool space thanks to a few below-slot signings, much of which ($507.3K) came from first-rounder Korey Lee’s contract.  Of course, not all of that extra money is earmarked for Barber, given that the Astros have also gone above-slot to sign a couple of their other picks.

West Notes: Leake, D’Backs, M’s, Hampton, Padres, Alvarez

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Some rumblings out of both the AL and NL West divisions…

  • The Mariners and Diamondbacks discussed a potential trade earlier this week that would’ve sent Mike Leake to Arizona, though in the words of FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (video link), these negotiations “never got serious.”  As we heard on Thursday, Leake was never contacted about the trade, which would’ve been a necessary step since Leake has a no-trade clause in his contract.  Given that the M’s have shown a willingness to eat money in trades of their veteran players, Leake could have been (and perhaps even still is) a particularly attractive option to a D’Backs team that doesn’t have a ton of payroll room.  In Leake’s case, Seattle would also be sharing the financial burden with the Cardinals.  As per the terms of the trade that brought Leake to the Mariners from the Cardinals, St. Louis was responsible for $9MM of the $36MM owed to Leake over the 2019-20 seasons.
  • In the words of one Padres official, there is still an “outside chance” that the club could ink 23rd-round draft pick Maurice Hampton, Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes, despite Hampton’s commitment to play both baseball and football at LSU.  Hampton reportedly wanted a $2.75MM bonus to begin his pro baseball career, and while the team believes this asking price may have dropped, it still represented a hefty enough demand that Hampton fell to the 23rd round despite a consensus top-50 prospect ranking in the eyes of draft evaluators.  Since Hampton was taken beyond the top ten rounds, any contract he signs worth more than $100K would see that excess money subtracted from San Diego’s $10,758,900 draft pool, leaving the Padres with less money to sign their other picks.  However, the team has been trying to create extra financial space within their pool — the Padres took four college seniors (who have less negotiating leverage) with their picks in the seventh thru tenth rounds, and saved almost $543K when sixth overall pick CJ Abrams agreed to a below-slot bonus.
  • Yordan Alvarez enjoyed a dream debut in the majors today, going 1-for-3 with a walk and his first MLB home run, a two-run blast that proved to be the winning score in Houston’s 4-0 win over Baltimore.  The young Astros slugger is considered one of the game’s most promising young bats, though there is far from a consensus on his overall value as a prospect, The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan writes (subscription required).  Alvarez is largely seen as a bat-only player, with limited defensive value as a left fielder or first baseman despite some solid athleticism for a man of his size (6’5″, 225 pounds).  “Any projection of Alvarez’s future value will take a hit by an evaluator who doesn’t believe he can stick in left,” Kaplan writes, and he speaks to several writers from sites such as Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Fangraphs, and MLB.com about why Alvarez received a pretty wide range of rankings.

MLB Draft Signings: 6/9/19

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Here are the latest notable signings from last week’s amateur draft, with the newest signings at the top of the post.  Click here for the full list of slot values and draft pool bonuses, and you can find prospect rankings and scouting reports from Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB.com, and ESPN.com’s Keith Law.

  • The Rays have agreed on a $2,045,400 bonus with high school right-handed pitcher J.J. Goss, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). That’s right at the recommended slot value for the 36th overall selection. A product of Cypress Ranch HS in Texas, Goss was committed to Texas A&M prior to his selection. MLB.com, which ranked Goss as the class’s 24th-best prospect, highlights his projectable frame; currently measuring 6’3″ and 185 pounds, some scouts believe he could grow into mid-90s velocity as his frame fills out. He also features a plus slider with “two-plane depth” and a changeup.
  • The Dodgers have agreed on a $550K bonus with third-rounder Ryan Pepiot pending a physical, MLBTR’s Steve Adams reports (Twitter link).  This represents a slightly below-slot deal, as the 102nd overall pick has a recommended $571.4K price.  A right-hander out of Butler, Pepiot drew a wide range of grades from draft pundits — Law ranked him as the 33rd-best prospect in the draft, Fangraphs 62nd, MLB.com 72nd, and BA 99th.  Law was impressed by Pepiot’s high strikeout totals, “great deception in his delivery and high spin rates, boosted by a power curveball with two-plane break.”  At the other end of the spectrum, Baseball America’s scouting report noted Pepiot’s lack of control in his less-impressive outings, and he relies heavily on his best pitch, a changeup.
  • The Blue Jays have agreed to a deal with second-round pick Kendall Williams, as per MLB.com’s Jim Callis (via Twitter).  The high school right-hander will receive a bonus of $1,547,500, a bit above the $1,403,200 recommended price attached to the 52nd overall pick and perhaps some necessary extra incentive to get Williams to break his commitment to Vanderbilt.  MLB.com was most bullish on the 6’6″ Williams, ranking him 54th on their top 200 prospects list and describing him as “the quintessential projectable high school right-hander,” with a promising and still-developing arsenal of four pitches.

Mariners To Sign First-Rounder George Kirby

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JUNE 7: It’s an at-slot deal, per MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo (via Twitter).

JUNE 5: The Mariners have agreed to a bonus with first-round pick George Kirby, team director of amateur scouting Scott Hunter told Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times (Twitter links).  The deal is set pending a physical.  Terms weren’t revealed, though the 20th overall selection has a recommended bonus value of $3,242,900.

Kirby is a 6’4″, 201-pound right-hander out of Elon University and a consensus top-25 prospect according to pre-draft rankings.  MLB.com had Kirby highest as the 18th-best prospect in this year’s class, with Fangraphs placing him 19th, Baseball America 20th, and ESPN’s Keith Law 24th.  Kirby has a fastball that usually sits in the 94-95mph range and is considered a plus pitch as per BA’s scouting report, and his repertoire also includes a changeup, slider, and curveball, though the latter two pitches “might be average pitches, at best, in a starting role.”

The Mariners put a big focus on young arms in this year’s draft, as the club took college pitchers in each of the first five rounds, and drafted eight pitchers overall within its first ten picks.  The M’s also took some prominent high schoolers outside of the top ten, including right-handers Anthony Tomczak (15th round) and Dutch Landis (17th round).  Any bonus given to a player from rounds 11-40 that is in excess of $125K counts against the team’s bonus pool, though Hunter said the Mariners are prepared to go over slot to sign the two youngsters.  Since clubs usually have something of a negotiating advantage with college seniors, Seattle should have some extra funds within their first ten picks to help their efforts in getting Tomczak and/or Landis signed.

Draft Notes: Leiter, Mets, Allan, Cubs, Rutschman

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The Yankees called a familiar name with their 20th-round selection, drafting high school pitcher Jack Leiter.  The right-hander is the son of former Yankees pitcher and broadcaster Al Leiter, and is considered one of the top arms of the entire draft class.  Were it not for the younger Leiter’s commitment to attend Vanderbilt in the fall, he “would have gone [in the] top 10 picks, easy” a scout tells MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link).  (The consensus among pundits wasn’t quite that lofty, though he was seen as a high-end draft prospect.) It isn’t unusual for teams to take a flier of a pick on such prospects just to see if they could be enticed to begin their pro careers early, and despite the past ties between the Yankees and the Leiter family, both Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand believe Jack Leiter will indeed head to Vanderbilt.  Cooper doesn’t think the Yankees have the bonus pool budget available to offer Leiter anything close to his asking price to forego his college commitment, while Feinsand counters any suggestion of a possible wink-wink deal between Leiter and his dad’s old team by noting that the senior Leiter currently works for the Mets as an advisor in the baseball ops department.

As the draft officially comes to an end for another year, here’s more news and notes from the 2019 class…

  • The Mets selected high-school right-hander Matthew Allan with the 89th overall pick, an intriguing part of a strategy by the team to focus their efforts “into largely a three-player draft,” J.J. Cooper writes for Baseball America.  Allan is another of the draft’s top high-school arms, but reportedly wanted a $4MM bonus (greater than the slot price for all but the top 14 picks) to turn pro rather than attend the University of Florida.  The 89th overall pick only carries a $667.9K recommended price, though the Mets drafted all college seniors (who have less negotiating leverage) in rounds 4-10 to potentially carve out space in their bonus pool.  By saving money on those picks and perhaps even on first-rounder Brett Baty, the Mets could have enough to meet Allan’s price.  Matt Ehalt of Yahoo Sports also reports that Allan’s actual demand is “not near the $4MM that has been thrown out,” so the team could have even more breathing room.
  • The Cubs haven’t had much success in developing their own pitchers in recent years, and their pick of right-hander Ryan Jensen with the 27th overall selection represents how the team is adjusting its thinking in trying to solve this problem, MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian writes.  “Ryan Jensen certainly hits the nail on the head in terms of things that I’ve talked about that we probably avoided,” Cubs senior VP of player development and amateur scouting Jason McLeod told Bastian and other reporters.  Jensen has had mechanical issues during his time at Fresno State, and at only 6’0″ tall and 180 pounds, the righty doesn’t cut an imposing figure on the mound.  The young hurler had two important supporters, however, in Cubs area scout Gabe Zappi and pitching coordinator Brendan Sagara, plus McLeod was himself impressed watching one of Jensen’s starts in person on May 16.
  • Reports from the night prior to the draft suggested that the Orioles were still considering multiple options as the first overall pick, and GM Mike Elias indeed told reporters (including MLB.com’s Joe Trezza) that “the first four picks were all under significant discussion from us at one point or another.”  Rather than take Bobby Witt Jr., Andrew Vaughn, or JJ Bleday, the O’s instead stuck to expectations and chose top-rated prospect Adley Rutschman.  “There are pros and cons with every player profile and every player. We like to work our way through all of that and ultimately decided for the long-range benefit of the organization that this was the right pick,” Elias said.  It’s hard to argue with the choice, given that Rutschman was widely seen as the top talent available in this year’s class (and perhaps in many years).  Elias praised his new player as “a team leader on and off the field” and “a future fixture for this organization.”

2019 MLB Draft Results — First Round

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The 2019 MLB Draft is underway, and we’ll track the first-round picks as they come in. Rather than breaking things up as we have in the past, we’ll just track everything before the 2nd round in this post. This year, there are 32 true first-round picks, followed by a pair of compensation picks and seven competitive balance selections.

Here are the picks:

  1. Baltimore Orioles: Adley Rutschman, C, Oregon State University
  2. Kansas City Royals: Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Colleyville Heritage HS (TX)
  3. White Sox: Andrew Vaughn, 1B, University of California
  4. Marlins: JJ Bleday, OF, Vanderbilt University
  5. Tigers: Riley Greene, OF, Hagerty HS (FL)
  6. Padres: C.J. Abrams, SS, Blessed Trinity Catholic HS (GA)
  7. Reds: Nick Lodolo, LHP, Texas Christian University
  8. Rangers: Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Tech University
  9. Braves: Shea Langeliers, C, Baylor University
  10. Giants: Hunter Bishop, OF, Arizona State University
  11. Blue Jays: Alek Manoah, RHP, West Virginia University
  12. Mets: Brett Baty, 3B, Lake Travis HS (TX)
  13. Twins: Keoni Cavaco, 3B, Eastlake HS (CA)
  14. Phillies: Bryson Stott, SS, University of Nevada, Las Vegas
  15. Angels: Will Wilson, SS, North Carolina State University
  16. Diamondbacks: Corbin Carroll, OF, Lakeside HS (WA)
  17. Nationals: Jackson Rutledge, RHP, San Jacinto JC (TX)
  18. Pirates: Quinn Priester, RHP, Cary-Grove HS (IL)
  19. Cardinals: Zack Thompson, LHP, University of Kentucky
  20. Mariners: George Kirby, RHP, Elon University
  21. Braves: Braden Shewmake, SS, Texas A&M University
  22. Rays: Greg Jones, SS, University of North Carolina-Wilmington
  23. Rockies: Michael Toglia, 1B, University of California-Los Angeles
  24. Indians: Daniel Espino, RHP, Georgia Premier Academy (HS)
  25. Dodgers: Kody Hoese, 3B, Tulane University
  26. Diamondbacks: Blake Walston, LHP, New Hanover HS (NC)
  27. Cubs: Ryan Jensen, RHP, Fresno State
  28. Brewers: Ethan Small, LHP, Mississippi State
  29. Athletics: Logan Davidson, SS, Clemson
  30. Yankees: Anthony Volpe, SS, Delbarton School (NJ)
  31. Dodgers: Michael Busch, 1B, University of North Carolina
  32. Astros: Korey Lee, C, Cal
  33. Diamondbacks: Brennan Malone, RHP, IMG Academy (FL; compensatory pick)
  34. Diamondbacks: Drey Jameson, RHP, Ball State (compensatory pick)
  35. Marlins: Kameron Misner, OF, Missouri (Competitive Balance Round A)
  36. Rays: JJ Goss, RHP, Cypress Ranch HS (TX; Competitive Balance Round A)
  37. Pirates: Sammy Siani, OF, William Penn Charter School (PA; Competitive Balance Round A)
  38. Yankees: TJ Sikkema, LHP, Missouri (Competitive Balance Round A)
  39. Twins: Matt Wallner, OF, Southern Mississippi (Competitive Balance Round A)
  40. Rays: Seth Johnson, RHP, Campbell University (Competitive Balance Round A)
  41. Rangers: Davis Wendzel, 3B, Baylor (Competitive Balance Round A)

Orioles Select Adley Rutschman First Overall

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The Orioles have a new front office and new dugout leadership. And now, the club has a new top prospect after officially selecting star Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman with the first overall pick of the 2019 Rule 4 amateur draft.

Though the Baltimore organization kept things quiet in the build-up to the draft, it would have rated as a major surprise had the club gone in a different direction. Rutschman checks all the boxes you want to see in a 1-1 draft selection.

Rutschman is widely considered the best overall prospect available this year. He’s a highly accomplished collegiate catcher who helped his team to a national championship last year. (Indeed, he was named the most outstanding player of the College World Series.)

Scouting reports on Rutschman, an Oregon native, read like a creat-a-player dream list from a video game. He’s a switch hitter who has walked more often than striking out in college even while delivering outstanding power. Scouts also grade him as a top-tier defensive performer behind the dish.

It’s a momentous decision for an Orioles club that has fallen on hard times after a questionable call to attempt to contend in 2018. The team’s new front office will look to assemble as much talent as possible and ramp up toward a return to glory, with Rutschman’s timeline likely to be a key factor.

The first overall pick comes with a $8.42MM bonus allocation. The O’s have the second-highest overall pool allocation. While the Diamondbacks won’t choose until the 16th overall pick, they added a pair of compensation picks that significantly boosted their overall availability.

Final Mock Drafts Form Consensus At Top Of Draft

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If you’re just realizing that tonight is the MLB Draft, you’ll need to catch up quickly. Baseball’s Rule 4 amateur draft will never have the drama (real or concocted) of the NFL version of the event, but it’s still a major moment for the sport. This year, new Orioles GM Mike Elias will make a franchise-defining pick to kick off the festivities … in just about half an hour, at 7pm eastern.

It’s often said that teams increasingly share common player assessments in baseball’s information age. And unlike football, where fit matters quite a bit, it’s generally believed that baseball teams ought to take the best player available since so few are able to make it to the majors in the short term.

So, does that mean the MLB draft is predictable? No … but maybe also yes, at least in some respects.

There’s still plenty of room for disagreement on amateur players; statistics are obviously less useful when they are logged against disparate competition of varying ability. The draft isn’t just a rank ordering of true talent, anyway. It involves considerations of overall draft bonus pools and off-the-books negotiations with unofficial player advisers. (For more on that side of the proceedings, read this great piece from Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper.)

That said, those behind-the-scenes factors can also leave some nuggets of information that allow other teams, agents, and draft observers to gauge the likely outcome of the draft’s earliest stages. It’s typically still difficult to know in advance how things will shake out, but this year there’s an unusual degree of consensus in the draft analysis community.

The final mock drafts all share a common top-five, predicting:

  1. Orioles to select Adley Rutschman
  2. Royals to select Bobby Witt, Jr.
  3. White Sox to select Andrew Vaughn
  4. Marlins to select J.J. Bleday
  5. Tigers to select Riley Greene

Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB.com, and ESPN.com all have quite a few differences in their predicted boards, of course. But all except Fangraphs also agree on the next two picks (CJ Abrams to Padres and Nick Lodolo to Reds).

Whether anything will occur to shake things up remains to be seen. There’s still some rumblings of intrigue with the 1-1 selection; Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs tweets that it may not be settled even at this point. Keith Law of ESPN.com also tweeted about some top-five possibilities that fall outside of the consensus expectation.

Beyond the final mock drafts, here are some other draft resources to check out or reference as the draft unfolds.

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