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2019-20 Offseason Outlook

Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers

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The Tigers found their low point in 2019 … or so they hope. It’s far too soon to envision this organization contending, but the Detroit front office has some payroll space to work with.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Detroit Tigers depth chart | Detroit Tigers payroll outlook]

How rough was the 2019 campaign for the Tigers? They ran away with the rights to next year’s top overall draft pick by a whopping seven games, matching the ’18 Orioles with a 47-win effort. Not so hot, particularly given that the organization still opened the campaign with $115MM of payroll. Then again, it’ll be handy to have the 1-1 selection for the second time in three campaigns; no doubt the Tigers wish they had managed to secure the intervening top choice as well.

Last year’s hot stove session was more or less a complete bust. GM Al Avila and his charges spent $15.5MM on veteran additions but got little in contributions and nothing back via trade for that spend. Some of the specific moves were defensible on their own, but it’s nevertheless a disappointing outcome. Otherwise, the club did little to take chances on potentially interesting young talent. The Tigers picked up only a few marginal players in waiver claims and minor-league signings, not one of whom appears to be part of a contending future.

That’s not to cast a pall over the entire organization. It’s in large part a reflection of a typical rebuilding effort after an extended effort at contention. And there’s some legitimately interesting talent on the rise in the Detroit farm, some of it beginning to press toward the MLB level. But that fact only increases the urgency of making strides now, to install some pieces that complement the good young talent as it reaches the majors — thus helping the Tigers open a new window for winning as soon as possible, while Casey Mize and co. are at their most cost-efficient.

So, the Tigers organization needs to make greater progress this time around. How to do it? Frankly, there really aren’t many limitations on Avila and his charges. Having already scraped along the bottom of the league for the past several seasons, the pain of poor outcomes is by now familiar and accepted. The present roster is free of impediments; Cabrera will DH and play first and the front office can pretty much otherwise use its roster spots in whatever way it wishes.

Plus, there ought to be some money to work with — even if we don’t yet know quite what payroll levels this organization will operate at now that ownership has passed from Mike to Christopher Ilitch. The Tigers have largely unwound the remnant obligations of their last contending stretch, though the misguided Miguel Cabrera extension will blot the books for a while longer. Jordan Zimmermann and Prince Fielder will be settled up fully after the coming season. The Tigers have yet to promise a dime to anyone else, so they’ll start their 2020 roster with $61MM in obligations and a modestly priced slate of remaining arbitration-eligible players (after parting with three such players after the end of the season).

Looking over the existing roster for needs feels somewhat beside the point. But there are some areas with greater opportunity available than others.

The pitching staff is relatively stable, particularly the rotation (as far as rebuilding clubs go). There were ups and downs last year for Matthew Boyd, Spencer Turnbull, and Daniel Norris, but all threw well enough to warrant jobs in 2020. (Norris was particularly effective when transitioned to a three-inning “opener” role, so perhaps he’s best deployed with a piggyback option.) Tyler Alexander could also factor, with Zimmermann of course still on board if he’s healthy. Speaking of notable injury situations, this is shaping up to be a big season for Michael Fulmer, who’ll be working back from Tommy John surgery. He’s now about seven months out from the procedure, which took place just before the start of the ’19 season. Odds are the club will target a return early next summer.

There’s room for another veteran signing in the mold of last year’s additions of Tyson Ross and Matt Moore. Those didn’t pan out, but they were a sensible tandem to try out in hopes of unearthing an eventual July trade chip. Youthful, reasonably high-upside hurlers such as Michael Wacha or Alex Wood could be targets this time around if the Tigers want to try that same approach. There are loads of possibilities for veteran depth and wisdom, which would be nice to have on hand as the top prospects arrive.

The rotation need will increase dramatically if the Tigers gain traction on talks involving Boyd, who faded down the stretch after an eye-opening early showing last year. Yeah, he ended up with a middling earned run average and allowed a stunning 39 home runs. But Boyd is a durable, youthful, high-K starter who comes with three years of cost controlled campaigns. The trade market for starters doesn’t look to have much else of interest, so it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see analytically minded contenders poking around for a bargain. The Tigers shouldn’t accept just anything, but ought to explore the possibilities. If something gets done, the open rotation spot and salary capacity can be given to a bounceback target that could be utilized as a trade chip.

It doesn’t seem as if the Tigers need to go wild in the bullpen, either. No, this was not a top-tier unit — far from it. The Tigers relief corps landed in the bottom third of baseball last year by most measures and doesn’t seem especially likely to be much better in 2020. But that’s just not a core area to focus on for a team in this situation. The Detroit organization can afford to allow in-house such as Buck Farmer, Joe Jimenez and David McKay to continue to learn on the fly, even in higher-leverage spots, with some starting pitching depth perhaps also spilling into the relief unit.

Adding at least one veteran to the pen mix might be sensible, but the Tigers shouldn’t tie up relief roles on low-upside arms. Just look at the Marlins’ Nick Anderson bonanza: added in a minor swap in the 2018-19 offseason, the righty threw well enough in his debut season to become a major mid-season trade piece. It’s tough to score that kind of a player, but it’s easier to dig for gold in the relief arena than any other. The Tigers should utilize their reliever roster spots and MLB opportunities to chase ceiling.

There’s obviously work yet to be done on the pitching staff. But with a host of highly regarded arms moving toward the Majors, there’s help on the way. And the near-term problems pale in comparison to the issues on the other half of the roster. Outside of Cabrera and the departing Mercer, only Victor Reyes, Niko Goodrum, and JaCoby Jones posted offensive numbers in spitting distance of average for the Tigers.

Goodrum is capable of playing just about anywhere, which helps with flexibility. (Somewhat curiously, he graded out much better at shortstop than in left field.) Reyes and Jones can both play center, though the latter’s defensive grades strangely plummeted in 2019. While none of these players has shown a particular likelihood of turning into anything like a core piece, it’s nice to have such a reasonably flexible trio to work with.

The other players that had 2019 trials all turned in duds. Jeimer Candelario and Dawel Lugo scuffled at third base. Brandon Dixon launched 15 homers but did little else with the bat during his time at first base. Corner outfielders Christin Stewart, Travis Demeritte didn’t hit. Neither did middle infielders Willi Castro and Ronny Rodriguez or utilityman Harold Castro. Behind the dish, Jake Rogers holds promise but he and Grayson Greiner … you guessed it, didn’t hit in 2019.

These players are all still available to draw from. Some have greater promise than they’ve shown to this early stage of their MLB careers. And the Detroit farm has a few pieces that could pop up in 2020, including infielder Isaac Paredes and outfielder Daz Cameron. But it would frankly be difficult to say that the Tigers are remotely precluded from adding at any specific position except, perhaps, center field — which is just as well given the state of the market. The positional flexibility on hand only adds to the sense that the Tigers can and should explore upside opportunities wherever they can find them.

What the Tigers should probably not do is settle for another version of the Mercer-Harrison middle-infield combo (whether  there or anywhere else on the diamond). It is valuable to have some veteran leadership, to be sure, but you’d like to see it come from somewhat more youthful players that have some hope of delivering future value (via trade, future arbitration control, or otherwise). It’s one thing to add a solid part-time catcher or fourth outfielder, but tying up significant playing time with short-term, low-ceiling pieces is of dubious merit.

If the Tigers want the veteran presence and performance, then they’d be better served making a more significant investment in a more youthful, higher-end player. Didi Gregorius, Jonathan Schoop or Yasiel Puig are the sort of players that could plausibly be attracted by multi-year offers if they can’t get them elsewhere. The Tigers can also look at the trade market, which could conceivably feature personnel on the order of Nomar Mazara, Michael Taylor, Maikel Franco, and Albert Almora. We don’t yet know for sure what opportunities might arise and whether they’ll be worth the price. But the Tigers ought to be seeking situations that come with some real upside — both in terms of performance and control rights — even if it means taking on financial obligations that extend past the 2020 season.

Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins

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The Twins parlayed a series of short-term pickups from the 2018-19 offseason, some key prospect arrivals and a series of step-back moves from the Indians into their first American League Central title since Target Field’s inaugural season back in 2010. They also continued a mind-boggling run of postseason futility and are now faced with glaring holes in their rotation as the offseason begins.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Max Kepler, OF: $29MM through 2023 (including buyout of 2024 club option)
  • Jorge Polanco, SS: $21.8MM through 2023 (including buyout of 2024 club option; contract also contains 2025 club option)
  • Nelson Cruz, DH: $12MM through 2020
  • Marwin Gonzalez, INF/OF: $9MM through 2020

Arbitration-Eligible Players (arbitration projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Martin Perez, LHP: $7.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
  • Nelson Cruz, DH: $12MM club option with a $300K buyout (the Twins have not formally announced the move, but Cruz’s option will reportedly be exercised, as was widely expected)

Free Agents

Juiced ball or not, no one would’ve predicted the 2019 Twins to set Major League Baseball’s single-season home run record, but Minneapolis’ resident “Bomba Squad” did just that when they belted 307 long balls and won the American League Central by a a decisive eight-game margin. Five different Twins — Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler and even Mitch Garver — belted 30-plus home runs in 2019, and the Twins will return nearly that entire lineup for the 2020 season.

The only (semi-)regulars likely to depart are Jonathan Schoop — who figures to be replaced by standout rookie Luis Arraez — and perhaps C.J. Cron, who battled a thumb injury late in the season and could be a non-tender candidate. Jason Castro, who bounced back from 2018 knee surgery with a solid year at the plate (101 OPS+) and his typically strong defense, also could be in search of a new home. The Twins could explore the possibility of retaining him in a reduced role, but Garver’s out-of-nowhere breakout has vaulted him to the top of the organizational depth chart and Castro is both young enough (32) and good enough (1.6 fWAR in 79 games/275 plate appearances) to merit consideration as a starter elsewhere.

That nearly the entire lineup is not only under control but is either in arbitration or signed to affordable contracts bodes well for chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine this winter. It sounds strange to say, but the Twins may have more financial flexibility than any contender in baseball. Minnesota currently has $31MM committed to the quartet of Nelson Cruz, whose $12MM team option was a no-brainer to exercise, Marwin Gonzalez, Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco. They have another $46.2MM in projected arbitration salaries to 10 players, but that number will assuredly shrink.

Sam Dyson, acquired at the trade deadline, aggravated an existing shoulder injury following that swap and underwent surgery that’ll keep him out for up to a year. The Twins did their due diligence on the situation and found no evidence that the Giants knew of the ailment, so it seems a case of poor luck that leaves them with a thinner bullpen than they’d hoped. He’s a lock to be non-tendered, which immediately slashes $6.4MM off that arbitration tab.

As previously mentioned, Cron could also be jettisoned this winter. Eleven teams passed on the slugger via waivers last winter when he was projected to make a bit more than $5MM and was coming off a healthier, superior season at the plate. Cron hit .266/.326/.495 with 17 homers in the season’s first half but floundered to a .229/.280/.420 line following the All-Star break. He underwent surgery to repair his problematic thumb last week, which could sideline him for up to two months. While Cron is expected to be ready for Spring Training, that notable raise, poor second half and the uncertainty associated with any surgery all line up to make him a viable non-tender candidate.

If Cron and Dyson are cut loose, the Twins will have about $63.18MM committed to 12 players. That’s barely more than half the $120MM mark at which this year’s Opening Day payroll sat and nearly $66MM shy of 2018’s record $129MM payroll. The Twins won’t necessarily spend $66MM this winter, of course, but the “Falvine” front office duo has given reason to believe that they’ll at least be willing to enter record territory if the right opportunities present themselves.

“I think we feel like we’re getting to a place now where we feel a little bit more emboldened to sit down with [owner] Jim Pohlad and [President] Dave [St. Peter] and talk about being a little bit more aggressive,” Levine said in this year’s season-end postmortem (link via La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune). Falvey, in that same press conference, said the Twins will be in the market for “impact pitching” both in free agency and via trade.

In that regard, it’s a fairly good offseason to be hunting for big-name rotation help. Gerrit Cole will hit the market in search of the largest contract ever awarded to a pitcher, while Nationals co-ace Stephen Strasburg has gone from long shot to virtual lock to opt out of the remaining four years and $100MM on his contract. Also reaching free agency will be Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu and the Twins’ own Jake Odorizzi.

Minnesota isn’t going to be considered any type of favorite for Cole, who many believe will land with his hometown Angels, but it’d be a surprise if they weren’t in the mix for him to some extent. Cole seems likely to break David Price’s $217MM record for a pitcher, and even with this type of payroll space and a front-office tandem speaking of increased aggression and “impact” pitching, it’s hard to envision the Twins winning that bidding. But the remainder of the offseason’s top pitching talent will all fall into a more plausible price range for Minnesota. The Twins have never signed a pitcher for more than Ervin Santana’s four-year, $55MM contract five winters ago, but they did offer Yu Darvish a reported $100MM contract prior to the 2018 season (and they of course paid Joe Mauer a franchise-record $184MM on an eight-year contract).

From a purely financial standpoint, the Twins shouldn’t face any limitations in addressing their rotation. They should also be among the winter’s most motivated buyers, as the only starter they’re returning is right-hander Jose Berrios. Odorizzi, Michael Pineda and Kyle Gibson are all free agents, and the Twins seem likely to buy out Martin Perez’s $7.5MM club option. There are some internal candidates to fill a spot, including top prospect Brusdar Graterol and right-hander Randy Dobnak, who had a meteoric 2019 rise after going undrafted and signing with the Twins out of indie ball in 2017. The Twins’ starting pitching was a glaring weakness against the Yankees in the ALDS, however, and relying on internal arms fill that void won’t cut it. Odorizzi should get a qualifying offer and could either be back on that one-year pact or a multi-year arrangement, but it’s easy to see why the Twins are motivated to add multiple starters even if the 29-year-old returns.

Looking to the trade market, there aren’t many surefire trade targets to pursue. Matthew Boyd will again be discussed throughout the winter, and speculatively speaking, it’s not difficult to see how either Pittsburgh’s Chris Archer or Colorado’s Jon Gray could become available. Depending on the direction things go in Boston, Eduardo Rodriguez could surface in trade rumblings as well. Specific targets aside, the Twins have a deep farm system and could put together an enticing offer for the majority of the trade candidates on this year’s offseason market. Whether the additions come via trade or free agency, it’d be rather stunning if Minnesota fails to add at least two rotation arms — if not three.

The bullpen also represents a potential area for upgrade. Taylor Rogers has emerged as a strong late-inning option, and the Twins enjoyed dominant stretches from Tyler Duffey, Trevor May and rookie Zack Littell down the stretch. But Dyson’s injury and the impending free agency of Sergio Romo leave the Twins with some spots to fill. Minnesota doesn’t have a left-handed setup piece to Rogers, and even if the Twins add a closer to push him down the pecking order a bit, a second lefty would be worth pursuing.

Minnesota had interest in Will Smith at the deadline, and perhaps no free-agent reliever did more to boost his stock following the trade deadline than Drew Pomeranz, who is suddenly a potential multi-year deal candidate. If the Twins prefer more affordable stability, Tony Watson would fit the bill without breaking the bank. Righty options like Will Harris, Chris Martin and Steve Cishek are multi-year deal candidates, but even more so than with starters, there’s really no pitcher on the market that should be considered too expensive (again, from a purely financial standpoint). It should be noted, though, that Addison Reed is the lone free-agent reliever to ever receive a multi-year deal from the Twins.

Looking to the lineup, there’s no glaring need, but the Twins have some intriguing flexibility. A straightforward approach could be to pursue an upgrade over Cron at first base, though the free-agent market is hardly teeming with great options there. A trade pursuit of Baltimore’s Trey Mancini or the Mets’ Dominic Smith would be interesting for the Twins. Alternatively, though, Minnesota could slide Sano across the diamond and pursue one of the many third-base options available. Anthony Rendon isn’t likely to be a priority even if they can technically afford a competitive offer, but the Twins make some sense as a dark-horse candidate to pursue names like Josh Donaldson and Mike Moustakas. Adding a corner infielder would allow the team to continue deploying Marwin Gonzalez in the super-sub role at which he has become so proficient.

Outfield depth doesn’t seem to be an immediate need, but the Twins could at least entertain the idea of shopping Eddie Rosario around. He’s a fan favorite at Target Field, but Rosario’s defensive ratings plummeted in 2019 as his arbitration price is rising — and he’s never been an on-base threat (.309 career OBP; .300 in 2019). It’s likelier that they maintain the status quo, but the sheer bulk of corner options on the market would present opportunities to capably replace Rosario if another team holds him in high regard. Beyond that, the Twins will likely look to add a backup catcher, relegating Willians Astudillo to utility status again. The GIF-able nature of “La Tortuga” and his “zero true outcomes” approach has made him something of a social media darling, but Astudillo hit just .268/.299/.379 when all was said and done. He could be best suited to fill a part-time, 26th man role.

The Twins almost certainly won’t hit 300-plus home runs again in 2020 — the ball seems unlikely to be so hitter-friendly, and even if it were, banking a repeat isn’t realistic — but they’ve firmly announced their presence as contenders in a woefully noncompetitive division. The Tigers and Royals won’t be threats next season, and while the White Sox figure to aggressively seek upgrades this winter, they’ve got a lot of work to do to improve on this year’s 72-win season. The Indians remain in the fold, but there’s already speculation about Cleveland marketing Francisco Lindor and/or Corey Kluber this winter. Pardon the hackneyed phrasing, but the Twins’ window is wide open.

Falvey and Levine have spoken in the past of being aggressive when that metaphorical window finally does open, and as Levine joked in the aforementioned press conference, the Twins are “feeling a breeze” at the moment. With no luxury tax concerns, $66MM in payroll space separating their likely slate of commitments and their 2018 Opening Day mark, three rotation vacancies and ample flexibility in the lineup, the Twins appear poised for their most aggressive offseason ever.

Offseason Outlook: Texas Rangers

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The Rangers didn’t need a new ballpark, but they got one. They will have to improve in several parts of the roster if they’re to win in the first season at the just-built facility.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Options

Free Agents

[Texas Rangers depth chart | Texas Rangers payroll outlook]

The Rangers have sat in an uncomfortable middle ground for the past three seasons, with a pair of 78-84 campaigns wrapped around a 67-95 dud. Payroll has moved south, but still topped $160MM by the end of the 2018 season and sat at $118MM on Opening Day in 2019.

Unsurprisingly, the roster construction efforts have mirrored the broader situation. The Rangers have spent some money and hit on a few free agents. Mike Minor and Lance Lynn succeeded beyond the wildest expectations on three-year deals while last year’s crop of low-cost talent delivered significant contributions from Hunter Pence, Danny Santana, and Logan Forsythe. But the club has also whiffed on others. Jeff Mathis, Asdrubal Cabrera, Shawn Kelley, Shelby Miller, and Zach McAllister absorbed a decent amount of payroll without delivering much in return. While Joey Gallo has emerged as a star-level performer, the results haven’t been as promising for Rougned Odor and Nomar Mazara.

It’s frankly difficult to see this club vaulting into serious contention in 2020 without some enormous strides from existing players and major additions from outside. The organization seems to have preferred a few years of fairly expensive mediocrity and foregone top draft picks as the price for avoiding a full-throated rebuild. There’s some honor in that. But it’s also time to get things moving forward.

There’s an argument to be made that president of baseball operations Jon Daniels ought to press ownership for a big payroll to launch the Rangers forward. The publicly funded stadium bonanza surely supports that concept. But it may not be wise to put the pedal all the way to the floor just yet, even accepting the premise that the organization can and should unleash the full potential of its pocketbook over the next several seasons. The Rangers have a whole host of needs and are separated by a yawning gap from the cross-state, division-rival Astros. Over-committing to too many veterans now, when the Rangers’ would-be core remains ill-defined, carries long-term roster-management risks. This winter demands careful navigation.

Gallo is a walking gap-filler on defense; he could slot in at any outfield spot or in the corner infield, though he hasn’t played third in some time and didn’t grade as well there. That flexibility will be important. The Rangers could move him around a la Cody Bellinger or let Gallo settle into whatever spot most needs it.

Otherwise, questions predominate. You could argue for a whole new outfield outside of Gallo. Shin-Soo probably should be limited all but exclusively to DH duties, where he’s a good-enough but hardly elite bat. Mazara hasn’t broken out of his league-average-ish hitting malaise; the Rangers will have to decide whether they can get him going or are better served letting another team have the shot. Delino DeShields Jr. runs like the wind but just hasn’t hit in the majors; he looks to be a reserve piece at most. And though Willie Calhoun has shown some promise with the bat, he’s anything but settled defensively.

Perhaps the Rangers would be best served shifting Calhoun in to first base rather than lining up Gallo on the dirt. The club may not be ready to give up entirely on Ronald Guzman, but it’d be awfully hard to hand over the first bagging duties to him after a .219/.308/.414 season. Across the way at the hot corner, the team still hasn’t settled on a permanent replacement for Adrian Beltre. Super-sub Danny Santana can help cover there, or just about anywhere else on the diamond, though it’s dubious whether he’ll repeat his high-BABIP, high-strikeout, power-surging 2019 success story. What of Nick Solak? The bat is intriguing, but there are questions surrounding the glove.

Let’s pause here to consider the scale of the challenge — and the volume of possible solutions. The Rangers could justifiably add something like three or four high-quality players to the corner infield/outfield mix, particularly if they find a deal they like for Mazara. Doing quite that much seems like a stretch, but the Rangers have picked up quite a few lower-cost veterans in recent years and surely will do so again. Given their positive experience with Beltre, perhaps a late-career fling with Josh Donaldson would make sense. Texas native Anthony Rendon is a bit of a dream scenario, but it’s quite possible to imagine at least some level of pursuit. There are loads of lower-cost vets that can slot in at either corner infield slot, with Mike Moustakas and Todd Frazier among the more prominent names. It isn’t hard to imagine a first bagger such as Justin Smoak, Yonder Alonso, or old friend Mitch Moreland finding his way to Texas. Likewise, the corner outfield market is full of possibilities that probably won’t break the bank. Even Marcell Ozuna may struggle to get a monster deal given the relative lack of urgent demand around the game. Nicholas Castellanos, Avisail Garcia, and Corey Dickerson are all reasonably youthful options.

That’s not all the Rangers must consider, however, even on the position-player side of the coin. We touched briefly upon the center field situation. That could be solved by planting Gallo out there every day, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Rangers prefer to ease the burden by also lining him up at first base. DeShields has historically been better against left-handed pitching, so perhaps he could handle center when southpaw starters oppose the Rangers. If Gallo is deployed elsewhere entirely, a center field platoon might include a veteran such as Jon Jay, Jarrod Dyson, or (another) old friend Leonys Martin. Should the club go looking for everyday options, it’ll need to get creative. Pirates star Starling Marte would obviously fit quite nicely, but that’ll take quite a bit of creativity for Daniels, especially with so many other teams likely to have interest in Marte given the meager open-market alternatives. More realistic, perhaps, is Japanese star Shogo Akiyama. He seems to have fixed his gaze on the majors; Daniels has always kept a close watch over the top Asian leagues. Perhaps they’ll make eye contact.

Oh, and it’s not as if the other up-the-middle spots are locked and loaded. Elvis Andrus is not going to opt out and it’d be tough to move enough of Odor’s contract to make it worth dealing him now, so the double-play combo is intact. But that underwhelming unit needs to step up big-time and the club can’t presume that’ll occur. At the same time, it’s hard to see how it can give up on the duo given their contracts. Santana and Solak factor here, though the former hasn’t been trusted much at short and the latter hasn’t played there at all. Having them to work in makes it less likely that the Rangers will spend on a sturdy veteran that can handle some time at second, though a move for a Forsythe type can’t be ruled out — particularly with a laundry list of useful names floating around free agency.

The catching situation is at least as big of an issue, albeit one that may not be susceptible of much near-term change. Mathis had an unfathomably bad season with the bat (.158/.209/.224) and understudy Jose Trevino hardly shined (.258/.272/.383 with just three walks in 126 plate appearances). It’s nice that Isiah Kiner-Falefa can play behind the dish or elsewhere on the diamond, but he also lacks promise with the bat. You can swallow some poor offensive output from defensively exceptional backstops, but it’s rough to have a black hole in the lineup.

What the Rangers can hope is that Mathis and Trevino will squeeze value out of a largely uninspiring pitching staff. Lynn and Minor were stunningly valuable in 2019 — they accounted for 11 of the club’s net 14.2 pitching fWAR — but it seems fair to presume at least a bit of regression for each. A group of youthful southpaws — Kolby Allard, Brock Burke, Joe Palumbo, and (if healthy) Taylor Hearn — will battle for opportunities despite poor results in their earliest MLB showings. There are a few other depth arms and rising prospects, but several of the team’s better-regarded farmhands are still a ways off. It’d be disappointing to see Ariel Jurado and Adrian Sampson occupy more than 120 frames apiece once again (unless the club can find a way to put one or both into another gear, at least). Pending supplementation, it’s tough to see this rotation mix as contention-worthy.

There’s some room for improvement in the bullpen. Jose Leclerc still has an electric arm. The Rangers will continue trying to help him find consistency and an appropriate role after dabbling with him as a closer and opener in 2019. It’ll be interesting to see fireballer Emmanuel Clase in his sophomore effort. Rafael Montero was a way-post-hype revelation and should occupy a prominent role. Jesse Chavez will try to bounce back and provide stability. Some of the aforementioned starter candidates could end up in the pen, while the Rangers may hope to get a worthwhile contribution from Ian Gibaut, Jeffrey Springs, or others.

So, what’s the path to improving the pitching? After hitting on two against-the-grain pitching contracts — going to the third year to land Minor and Lynn — the club could seek another opportunity of that ilk. Michael Pineda might represent an under-the-radar candidate for a relatively longer, lower-AAV outlay. The Rangers could also look at the highest reaches of the market. Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg may or may not be legitimate targets, but the Texas org could certainly afford to spend in the next tiers (Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Jake Odorizzi, Dallas Keuchel). And this year’s market has quite a few steady veteran types that ought to be available on cheaper, one-year deals. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Rangers end up with Ivan Nova or Brett Anderson. The team could also roll the dice on Michael Wacha or Alex Wood.

Free agency also obviously offers some relief solutions. A big move for a closer feels unlikely, but there’s a typical smattering of useful veterans kicking around. If the Rangers prefer a hurler with some closing experience, they could look to someone on the order of Steve Cishek. Perhaps a reunion with the under-the-radar excellent Chris Martin — an Arlington native who the Rangers brought back from Japan — would make sense for all sides.

Needless to say, options abound. It’ll also be interesting to see whether the Rangers can gain any traction in trade talks involving pitching. This club isn’t exactly overburdened with top prospects knocking down the door to the majors and won’t be anxious to move its best farm pieces. But the Rangers do have an interesting asset to market in the form of Mazara’s contract rights. He could be of interest to a variety of teams that would like a crack at his upside; packaged with other young talent, Mazara might help deliver a useful arm back to Texas. It’s even possible that Minor or Lynn could still pop up in trade talks if there’s an avenue for the Rangers to improve their mid-term outlook by kicking the contention can down the road a bit further, though the fact that a deal hasn’t yet occurred is a good indication that the Texas org values those contracts quite a bit.

One way or another, we’re likely to see quite a few fresh names on the backs of Rangers jerseys in 2020. Daniels and co. will need to be clever to make strides in the standings while also setting the team up for a much-anticipated return to glory.

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds recently wrapped up a 75-win season, their sixth consecutive sub-.500 campaign. President of baseball operations Dick Williams and general manager Nick Krall have seen enough. They have every intention of assembling a playoff-caliber roster for 2020.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Most of the Reds’ focus last offseason went to their starting staff, and two of the three key acquisitions they made in that regard couldn’t have worked out much better. Picking up Sonny Gray from the Yankees has been a brilliant move thus far. Tanner Roark, whom the Reds landed in a trade with the Nationals, was effective for Cincinnati for a few months before the out-of-contention club flipped him to Oakland in July. Alex Wood wasn’t healthy enough to pitch for most of the season, so acquiring him from the Dodgers was the one starting addition that didn’t work out for Williams and Krall. But the two front office bigwigs swung a massive trade for then-Indian Trevor Bauer prior to the July 31 deadline, meaning the Reds are now slated to get a full year from him alongside Gray, Luis Castillo and Anthony DeSclafani. It’s unclear who will primarily occupy the last spot on Cincy’s staff (perhaps Wood or another free agent on a one-year deal), but it’s obvious the rotation is no longer a major concern for the club.

The Reds’ main problem at the moment seems to be their offense, which finished 25th in the majors in both runs and wRC+ this year. Although he surprisingly struggled this season, first baseman Joey Votto isn’t going anywhere. Neither is third baseman Eugenio Suarez, who fell one home run shy of the 50 mark.

Aside from Votto and Suarez, the Reds’ position player cast certainly isn’t etched in stone. Nick Senzel will also start somewhere, whether it’s second or center field (where he played in 2019), and his flexibility will afford the Reds the opportunity to shop for help at either of those spots. The upcoming class of free-agent center fielders looks quite weak, however, so unless the Reds swing a trade for someone like Starling Marte of the Pirates or Jackie Bradley Jr. of the Red Sox, odds are they’ll be adding second base help over center field aid. Fortunately for Cincy, free agency will be teeming with passable second basemen once the offseason rolls around. Of course, we’d be remiss to ignore that the Reds have a few in-house second base possibilities besides Senzel. Jose Peraza, Derek Dietrich and Freddy Galvis led the club’s second basemen in starts this year, and all are controllable through next season. However, Peraza and Dietrich look like possible non-tender candidates, while Galvis has a $5.5MM option or a $1MM buyout for 2020. Even if the Reds keep Galvis, his track record indicates he wouldn’t make for more than a mediocre-at-best starter at either second or shortstop.

Short, like second, appears to be a position the Reds could give some attention in the coming months. The trouble is that free agency won’t be loaded with obvious solutions there. Jose Iglesias, who started the vast majority of the Reds’ season at the position, is due to hit free agency. The Reds could easily re-sign the defensively adept, light-hitting Iglesias for what surely wouldn’t be a sizable sum, but they’d be wise to hunt for a better alternative first. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Reds seek a reunion with Yankees free agent-to-be Didi Gregorius, whom Cincy signed as an international free agent back in 2007. Otherwise, would the Reds pursue a trade for the Indians’ Francisco Lindor or the Rockies’ Trevor Story? They’re a pair of star shortstops who are likely to come up in trade rumors during the next few months (the speculation has already started in regards to Lindor).

While the Reds could rekindle their relationship with Gregorius, the same holds true for pending free-agent catcher Yasmani Grandal. Clearly the premier catcher set to hit the market in the next couple weeks, the Brewers’ Grandal was the 12th overall pick of the Reds back in 2010. Grandal never wound up playing a game for the Reds, but he’d be a massive upgrade now over the combination of Tucker Barnhart and Curt Casali. That said, signing the soon-to-be 31-year-old Grandal at this point would likely mean forking over $60MM or more in guarantees. If the Reds aren’t willing to go that far, and if they do try to add a somewhat high-profile backstop to upgrade over Barnhart, they could wind up with anyone from the affordable trio of Jason Castro, Travis d’Arnaud or Robinson Chirinos in free agency.

The way the Reds map out their 2020 outfield will depend in part on their plans for Senzel. As mentioned earlier, though, finding an obvious center field upgrade in free agency will be difficult. It’ll be less of an arduous task in the corner outfield, where ex-Red Yasiel Puig, Marcell Ozuna, Nicholas Castellanos, Avisail Garcia and Corey Dickerson are all on the cusp of becoming free agents. The Reds traded Puig in July as part of the Bauer deal, though Krall expressed interest in a Puig extension shortly before that.

Whether the Reds bring back Puig or find one or two players from the outside, their corner outfield does look as if it should be a priority. Cincinnati has in-house possibilities in Jesse Winker, Aristides Aquino, Phillip Ervin and Josh VanMeter, granted. However, they all come with warts. The left-handed Winker was just about unplayable this year versus same-handed pitchers; Aquino came back to reality after a historically remarkable start; Ervin’s decent overall numbers were buoyed by an unsustainable first few months; and VanMeter didn’t produce much outside of a red-hot July.

Meanwhile, the Reds’ bullpen seems to be much less of an issue than their outfield, though it’s still an area they (like just about every other team) could attempt to improve.. Raisel Iglesias has been a prime trade candidate in the past, but if Cincy’s as bent on pushing for a playoff spot next year as it has indicated, he seems unlikely to go anywhere this winter. So, he’ll stay a key member of a unit that will also welcome back Amir Garrett, Michael Lorenzen, Robert Stephenson and Matt Bowman, while Cody Reed, Lucas Sims and Joel Kuhnel could also be among in-house arms pushing for innings. Kevin Gausman, whom the Reds claimed from the Braves in August, may be a part of the unit again, too (or even vie for the Reds’ fifth starter job); however, considering his lofty arbitration projection for 2020, it seems more likely the Reds will non-tender Gausman.

Deciding Gausman’s future is one of the more immediate tasks on the Reds’ plate as the offseason nears its official start. If the Reds do let Gausman go, it’ll further increase spending space for a team that’s all but guaranteed to boast a franchise-record payroll in 2020. The Reds opened this season with an outlay just over $126.6MM, and Williams has said that number will go up next year as the club tries to bring an end to its long-running playoff drought.

“The goal for us now, all we’re talking about is the postseason. That’s what matters,” Williams declared a few weeks ago. “That’s the goal next year. It’s not taking incremental steps in a rebuild. It’s about the postseason.”

Judging by the Reds’ win-now attitude, they could be among the majors’ busiest teams during the upcoming offseason.

Offseason Outlook: Miami Marlins

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The rebuilding Marlins will continue to add low-cost veterans and potential hidden-gem younger players as they continue to assemble what they hope will eventually be a winning core.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Wei-Yin Chen, SP: $22MM through 2020 ($16MM player option can vest for 2021)
  • Miguel Rojas, SS: $10.25MM through 2021 (includes $500K buyout of $5.5MM club/vesting option for 2022)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Free Agents

The Marlins achieved one major bit of winter business before the regular season even ended, inking manager Don Mattingly to a two-year extension with a mutual option for the 2022 season.  The longest-tenured skipper in Marlins history will continue his work mentoring the young faces in Miami’s dugout, though given the contract’s length, it’s an open question as to whether Mattingly will get a chance to manage a Marlins team that is actually trying to win.

As the Marlins come off a 105-loss season, some pieces have started to come into place in South Beach.  Brian Anderson has two seasons of quality results under his belt, and he’ll line up as the everyday option at either third base or (less likely) in right field, allowing the Fish a bit of flexibility in their offseason shopping.  The newly-extended Miguel Rojas and top prospect Isan Diaz can handle middle infield duties, though Diaz is still getting his feet wet and could stand to be supplemented. Jorge Alfaro is still something of a work in progress, but he’ll continue to function as Miami’s everyday catcher. The Marlins also netted some good results from such unheralded pickups as Garrett Cooper, Harold Ramirez, and Jon Berti.  In the rotation, Sandy Alcantara and Caleb Smith showed some potential, though Smith’s production tailed off in the second half.

The larger question is, as with Mattingly, whether any of these players could conceivably be part of the next winning Marlins team, given that the Fish still look to have at least two more rebuilding years ahead of them.  This wouldn’t be a case of cutting payroll since almost every member of Miami’s roster is a pre-arbitration player, though CEO Derek Jeter and president of baseball operations Michael Hill could look to turn any single one of the club’s notable performers into a younger/higher-upside player (or players) who could help the team down the road.

To that end, it wouldn’t be a total shock to see Anderson, Alcantara, Alfaro, or Smith (who already drew some attention at the trade deadline) dealt if the right offer came along.  On the other hand, after so much roster churn in recent years, the Marlins’ front office could also see value in some simple continuity as part of the building process, plus 2020 is another year for the team to see what they really have in several of these still-developing players.

That question also extends to some Marlins who have yet to make the leap.  Diaz struggled over his first 201 Major League plate appearances, though Miami will give its hopeful second baseman-of-the-future plenty of time to develop.  The same might not be true of Lewis Brinson, who is entering his final option year and (through 709 PA) has shown no sign of being able to hit MLB pitching.  Brinson’s struggles have only been magnified by the fact that he was the headliner of the prospect package the Marlins received from the Brewers in the Christian Yelich trade — in fact, it could be argued that each of the three other players (Diaz, Jordan Yamamoto, Monte Harrison) in the deal have now surpassed Brinson in importance to the Marlins’ future plans.

While the Marlins would obviously love to see Brinson finally break out in 2020, the club will look to add at least one veteran outfielder to help carry the load.  Cooper, Ramirez, Austin Dean, and utilityman Berti will also be in the outfield mix, and reinforcements could be on the way relatively early in the season if minor leaguers Harrison and Jesus Sanchez play well at Triple-A.  Sanchez, acquired from the Rays in the Nick Anderson/Trevor Richards trade last July, will be looking to regain some of his prospect stock after a disappointing 2019 season.

Cooper could be deployed at first base, or the Marlins could opt to add a more proven bat at the position to upgrade one of the league’s worst offenses.  Free agents like Justin Smoak or Mitch Moreland wouldn’t break the bank, or a multi-positional player (e.g. Howie Kendrick, Brock Holt) could be penciled in at first base but really move around the diamond to help at various spots.  If Diaz were to struggle again, for instance, a Kendrick or a Holt could end up seeing more time at second base.

In terms of adding a veteran presence, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Fish re-sign some of their veteran additions from last season.  Neil Walker and Curtis Granderson have both expressed an interest in returning to the Marlins, while Martin Prado is a beloved figure in Miami who would also seemingly have a place as a bench piece, if he decides to continue playing.

Even though Miami will buy out Starlin Castro’s option, a case could be made that he could also be re-signed to an inexpensive one-year deal to play third base (and provide second base cover for Diaz), with Anderson moving into right field until the younger outfielders were ready.  Castro is coming off an unusual season that saw him post a dreadful .571 OPS over the first three months (345 PA), only to then deliver a .909 OPS over his final 331 plate appearances. The veteran clearly has something left in the tank and will be only 30 years old on Opening Day.  The more likely scenario, however, is that the Marlins will let Castro leave after two seasons.

With Prado and Castro both off the books, the Marlins have only $33.625MM in payroll committed to guaranteed salaries and projected arbitration salaries, and that number could drop even moreso if the Fish choose to non-tender Adam Conley or JT Riddle.  Given the organization’s usual M.O., it’s hard to project that the Marlins could spend the extra money on a higher tier of free agent, but the financial flexibility is there if Jeter and Hill see an intriguing opportunity. Notably, there are a few relatively youthful corner outfielders kicking around that may not all find the kinds of opportunities they are hoping for with other organizations.

One tactic the Marlins could explore is taking on an undesirable contract from another team, with the other club throwing in a couple of interesting prospects to sweeten the pot.  Such a bad-contract swap is also the only way the Marlins could possibly unload Wei-Yin Chen, who is single-handedly responsible for almost two-thirds of Miami’s current payroll, though parting with their own young talent to further pare an already barebones payroll probably won’t make sense for the Fish.  If Chen can’t be dealt, the team might simply release him to make extra roster space.

Alcantara and Smith headline the rotation, with Yamamoto, Pablo Lopez, Elieser Hernandez, Robert Dugger, and potentially Jose Urena in the mix for the other starting jobs.  Urena finished an injury-shortened 2019 season pitching out of the bullpen in September once he returned from the injured list.  Given that he was a solid workhorse in both 2017 and 2018, the Marlins will likely stretch him out as a starter again in Spring Training before considering more relief work.  Alternatively, due to the fact that he’s only controlled through the 2021 season, Urena could also be a candidate to be moved this winter, although Miami would hardly be selling at a high point.

There’s plenty of room in this young rotation for a veteran innings eater or bounce-back candidate, and if the Marlins were to spend some money, this might be the most logical spot.  Free agents like Alex Wood, Tanner Roark or Matt Harvey could all fit, or the club could look into signing Miami native Gio Gonzalez.

Any veteran arm signed for either the rotation or bullpen could also double as a possible trade chip come the deadline, as was the case in 2019 with Sergio Romo, who was flipped to the Twins last July.  Since Romo is a free agent again, the Marlins could look into a reunion, if they want an experienced closer to handle the ninth inning rather than Ryne Stanek.  Also picked up in that Rays trade last July, Stanek didn’t pitch well as a Marlin and has continued to struggle when used as anything other than an opener; Stanek has a 2.71 ERA over 83 career innings as an opener and a 4.93 ERA in a more conventional relief capacity.  Given these unusual numbers, one wonders if the Marlins would consider deploying an opener/bulk pitcher strategy for one of their rotation spots, with Stanek kicking off the game before another pitcher handles the majority of the early work.

Another last-place finish is likely awaiting the Marlins in a tough National League East next season, but there is opportunity this winter for the team to get creative in figuring out ways to continue planting the seeds for its next winning team.

Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Indians

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After posting only a 29-30 record through June 2, the Indians played .621 baseball the rest of the way but couldn’t catch up to the Twins in the AL Central, or to the Athletics and Rays in the AL wild card race.  It was a tough result for a team in “win-now” mode, and now the Tribe will have to retool in order to take advantage while their (perhaps rapidly closing?) competitive window is still open.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Carlos Carrasco, SP: $37.25MM through 2022 (includes $3MM buyout of $14MM club option for 2023)
  • Corey Kluber, SP: $17.5MM through 2020 (club option will be exercised; Indians also have $18MM club option for 2021 with $1MM buyout)
  • Carlos Santana, 1B: $17.5MM through 2020 ($17.5MM club option for 2021, $500K buyout)
  • Jose Ramirez, 2B/3B: $17.25MM through 2021 (includes $2MM buyout of $11MM club option for 2022)
  • Brad Hand, RP: $7MM through 2020 ($10MM club option for 2021, $1MM buyout)
  • Roberto Perez, C: $3.5MM through 2020 ($5.5MM club option for 2021, $450K buyout)
  • Oliver Perez, RP: $3MM through 2020

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Looking at the position players, Cleveland has a very nice core group of Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez, Oscar Mercado, Roberto Perez, and Franmil Reyes heading into 2020.  Jordan Luplow’s huge numbers against left-handed pitching will merit at least a platoon role in either corner outfield slot, and since the Tribe’s outfield situation is still rather unsettled outside of Mercado in center field, Luplow has a decent shot of winning an everyday job in Spring Training.

It also remains to be seen if Reyes could be an option in right field.  Though Reyes has shown very little fielding aptitude over his young career, the Indians would certainly like to see if Reyes can be a passable option on at least a part-time basis before relegating him to DH-only duty at age 24.  One would also think that the Indians would prefer to keep the designated hitter position open so multiple players could be rotated through DH days in order to keep everyone fresh.

Assuming Reyes will mostly be a DH in 2020, that leaves Luplow, Jake Bauers, Greg Allen, and Bradley Zimmer battling for playing time in the corner outfield slots, with Tyler Naquin entering the mix sometime between mid-April or mid-June as he recovers from a torn ACL.  Prospect Daniel Johnson (acquired from the Nationals in last offseason’s Yan Gomes trade) is also knocking on the door after a big season at Triple-A.

It isn’t a stellar collection of names on paper, but there’s enough promise here that Cleveland might prefer to see what it has rather than pursue an everyday corner outfielder (like, for instance, a re-signed Yasiel Puig).  In particular, the Indians are hoping that Bauers can start to blossom after a disappointing first year in Cleveland, while Zimmer is looking to get his career on track after missing almost all of 2018 and 2019 due to shoulder surgery.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Indians sign a veteran to a minor league deal for extra depth, or perhaps a multi-position utility type to fill holes all over the diamond.

Ramirez has said he wants to remain at one single position in 2020 rather than alternate between second and third base, though he is open to playing either position, giving the Indians some flexibility as they look for infield help.  It doesn’t seem like longtime second baseman Jason Kipnis will be brought back at a lower price tag after the Tribe declined his $16.5MM option, leaving the team with Mike Freeman, Christian Arroyo, and Yu Chang as internal candidates.

Needless to say, the Indians don’t have the payroll space to shop at the very top of the free agent infield market (i.e. Anthony Rendon or old friend Josh Donaldson).  And the presence of top third base prospect Nolan Jones will further preclude any type of truly long-term signing, as Jones could potentially make his MLB debut as early as the second half of the 2020 season.

Players like Howie Kendrick and Eric Sogard are coming off big seasons yet could likely be had on one-year contracts.  Along those same lines, productive veterans like Starlin Castro, Brock Holt, Brian Dozier, or former Clevelander Asdrubal Cabrera could be pursued in free agency.

Depending on how much the Tribe are willing to spend, Mike Moustakas seems like a realistic option.  The Moose has had trouble finding even a multi-year contract the last two offseasons, despite still swinging an above-average bat and slugging 101 homers over the last three seasons.  Since Moustakas is likely to decline his end of an $11MM mutual option with the Brewers for 2020, a modest two-year offer for maybe only a bit more than that $11MM average annual value should get his attention.

Such a signing would essentially just replace Kipnis’ declined salary commitment with Moustakas — certainly an upgrade on the field, though perhaps not a move the cost-conscious Indians are looking to make.  Spending cuts were a big factor in last year’s offseason moves and even into the year, as evidenced by the trade deadline blockbuster with the Reds and Padres that saw Trevor Bauer moved to Cincinnati, and Reyes, Yasiel Puig, young pitching prospect Logan Allen and two other minor leaguers come to Cleveland.

The biggest looming payroll question, of course, is Lindor’s status as both the Tribe’s best player and biggest trade chip.  Lindor is projected to earn $16.7MM via arbitration next season, a raise of $6.15MM from his 2019 salary, and putting him on a likely path to a salary in the $23MM range for 2021.  Indians owner Paul Dolan’s already-infamous comment from last March that Cleveland fans should “enjoy him and then we’ll see what happens” with a potential extension doesn’t overly optimistic about the chances of Lindor staying in a Tribe uniform for the long term.  Dolan’s interview also cited a lack of bonus revenue from postseason games as a reason for last winter’s payroll-lessening measures (the 2018 Indians had just one postseason home game during a three-game sweep at the Astros’ hands in the ALDS), and thus a spending increase doesn’t seem likely coming off a season that saw the Indians miss the playoffs entirely.

Having a superstar like Lindor on the books for roughly $40MM over a two-year span is still a bargain even for a smaller-market team like the Indians, of course, so there’s certainly value in keeping him around.  But given how the Tribe shopped Bauer and Corey Kluber last offseason before eventually moving Bauer at the deadline, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the front office at least discuss Lindor with other teams this winter if for no other reason to see what a rival could potentially offer.  Needless to say, the Indians would want a haul of MLB-ready talent and prospects to move the All-Star shortstop, but if Cleveland finds a team willing to meet that price, a Lindor trade can’t be ruled out. The Dodgers have already come up as a potential fit for Lindor.

A Lindor trade would be the kind of franchise-altering move that could potentially address all of Cleveland’s offseason needs in one fell swoop.  Dealing Kluber could have brought back a similar package last offseason, though the former two-time AL Cy Young Award winner’s trade value isn’t nearly as high in the wake of a season that saw Kluber make just seven starts due to a fractured forearm and then an oblique strain.

Despite this lost year, Kluber’s $17.5MM club option was still exercised by the Indians.  Letting him go for nothing wouldn’t have been too logical, given the chances that Kluber could quite possibly bounce back and look like his old self.  A Kluber trade can’t be entirely ruled out this offseason, just in case an aggressive team is willing to offer something at least in the neighborhood of a trade package befitting an ace-level pitcher, which would leave Cleveland in an interesting conundrum.

Starting pitching, after all, is the Tribe’s biggest strength.  Shane Bieber and Mike Clevinger project as strong front-of-the-rotation arms, with Carlos Carrasco looking to return after battling leukemia last summer, rookies Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale both making strong first impressions in 2019, Adam Plutko and Jefry Rodriguez on hand as further depth options, and Allen approaching big league readiness.  If Kluber and Carrasco both return to form, the Indians will be left with the enviable problem of having almost too much pitching, though that depth will almost surely be necessary given the inevitability of injuries or downturns in performance.

An argument could be made that the Indians could turn one of their younger pitchers into a trade chip, though that seems a little less likely given how controllable young arms are such an especially big asset to a lower-payroll team like Cleveland.  The Tribe might also want that extra depth in the fold given the uncertainty around Kluber and Carrasco heading into 2020.  One pitcher who likely won’t be back is Danny Salazar, as two straight years of virtual inactivity will make him a non-tender candidate.

The starting pitching depth could be translated into extra bullpen help, and since the Indians’ relief corps is already pretty solid, any reliever shopping this winter is more likely to take the form of minor league signings.  There probably isn’t quite enough depth that the Tribe would feel totally secure in trading Brad Hand, and a $7MM salary isn’t onerous for a closer of Hand’s caliber.

Ramirez and Carrasco are the only two Cleveland players on guaranteed contracts for 2021, and several big names (Santana, Kluber, Hand, Perez) are on club options for that season.  Though Lindor and many other key talents will still be in their arbitration or pre-arb years, 2020 stands a pivotal year for this core group given the amount of roster churn that could be on the horizon next winter.

President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff have shown a lot of creativity in assembling this roster and supplementing it with a strong pipeline of young players, especially pitchers.  Yet the Twins’ emergence in the AL Central has narrowed the Indians’ margin for error rather considerably, and another missed postseason could lead to many more tough decisions.

Offseason Outlook: Oakland Athletics

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While this season represented another year in which the Athletics fell short of the ultimate goal, it would still be difficult to call it anything but a success. The low-budget franchise overcame multiple key injuries in its rotation to amass 97 wins for the second straight year and earn its second consecutive playoff berth. Unfortunately for Oakland, it once again couldn’t get past the wild-card game. The A’s will return the vast majority of their important contributors in 2020, however, and even though they’re probably in for a somewhat quiet winter, there’s a good chance they’ll remain among the AL’s most talented teams next year.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Free Agents

As was the case in 2018, this year’s Athletics overcame a rotation that wasn’t anywhere close to full strength to book a trip to the playoffs. Emergent ace Frankie Montas’ breakout year all but ended in late June because of an 80-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs; Sean Manaea barely factored in after undergoing shoulder surgery in September 2018; and promising young starters Jesus Luzardo, A.J. Puk and Jharel Cotton missed most or all of the season with injuries. When Luzardo and Puk were healthy enough to pitch toward the end of the year, they worked exclusively out of the A’s bullpen.

Going forward, the A’s can likely expect Montas, Manaea, Luzardo and Puk to occupy four of five spots in their season-opening 2020 rotation. Cotton could vie for a spot, but he doesn’t seem to stand as strong a chance to win one. If healthy, though, he could be a solid depth piece for an Oakland staff that’ll also have Mike Fiers and Chris Bassitt among its main options. The sudden overflow of capable-looking starters means the A’s probably won’t pursue starters with much gusto over the winter. Brett Anderson and in-season additions Homer Bailey and Tanner Roark each helped spur the A’s most recent playoff season, though they all appear likely to walk in free agency. Even Anderson, a longtime and much-respected Athletic, seems to think his time with the franchise is done because of the copious amount of viable starters they have on hand.

Oakland seems to be facing a larger number of questions in its bullpen, where it’ll have to decide on a couple options before getting to other business. Rejecting lefty Jake Diekman’s $5.75MM option in favor of a $500K buyout seems as if it’ll happen; meantime, it appears to be a straightforward call to say yes to workhorse righty Yusmeiro Petit’s $5.5MM option. Assuming Petit sticks around, he’ll stay in a group that’ll also return the suddenly superb Liam Hendriks, Joakim Soria, Ryan Buchter and Lou Trivino. After that, the unit’s makeup doesn’t seem to be set in stone. Some member(s) from the A’s overflow of starters may be part of the group, as could J.B. Wendelken. Blake Treinen had an all-world season in 2018, but he fell off a cliff during an injury-limited ’19 and now looks like a strong non-tender candidate. All that said, adding to the bullpen (for what figures to be a low-cost, short-term contract) may be a priority this offseason for the A’s. Bear in mind that they have brought in at least one free-agent reliever on a guaranteed contract in each of the past few winters (Petit, Soria, Santiago Casilla, Ryan Madson and John Axford since 2016).

Meanwhile, the A’s position player alignment looks set for the most part. Third baseman Matt Chapman, first baseman Matt Olson and shortstop Marcus Semien are bedrock in the infield (the only question is whether any of them will land contract extensions). Designated hitter Khris Davis’ production plummeted during an injury-affected season, but the money left on his contract means he isn’t going to vacate his role. Underrated standouts Mark Canha and Ramon Laureano make for two-thirds of a starting outfield, though it’s not yet clear where they’ll mainly line up next season.

Either Canha or Laureano could be the A’s No. 1 center fielder or wind up starting in a corner in 2020. Stephen Piscotty (whom Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle has suggested may be a trade candidate), Robbie Grossman (potential non-tender), Chad Pinder (another possible non-tender), Seth Brown, Skye Bolt and Dustin Fowler might also be in the mix for spots. However, the A’s could go out of house for what they deem to be a more appealing choice. Slusser and Melissa Lockard of The Athletic have named lefty-hitting center fielder as a potential priority for the club, which may mean adding someone like Jarrod Dyson, Billy Hamilton or Jon Jay in free agency or even swinging a trade for Boston’s Jackie Bradley Jr. (though he might be too pricey for Oakland). In the corners, while free agents-to-be Marcell Ozuna and Nicholas Castellanos will likely be too rich for the A’s blood, though the team might be able to afford Yasiel Puig, Corey Dickerson, Kole Calhoun, Avisail Garcia or Brett Gardner. And let’s not forget ex-Athletic Ben Zobrist, who’d be able to help fill their 2B/OF needs in one fell swoop.

Whether they come away with Zobrist or someone else, second base does look like a position Oakland may choose to address from outside. Jurickson Profar’s probably on the outs, whether by trade or non-tender, after he fell flat in 2019. Free agency looks as if it’ll feature several affordable players who could prove to be upgrades over what the A’s got from Profar this year. Aside from Zobrist, Starlin Castro, Brian Dozier, Scooter Gennett, Brock Holt, Howie Kendrick, Jason Kipnis, Jonathan Schoop, former Athletic Eric Sogard and Neil Walker should all sign affordable short-term deals. Otherwise, if the A’s pass on that group (and if they don’t keep Profar or make a trade), they’ll have the option of handing the reins to some combination of Pinder, Sheldon Neuse, Franklin Barreto and Jorge Mateo.

The last spot we’ll address is the catcher position, which looks as if it’ll belong to Sean Murphy going forward. One of the majors’ highest-ranked prospects, the 25-year-old Murphy thrived at the Triple-A level in 2019 and did the same in the bigs after a September call-up. At least offensively, Murphy was far more productive than any catcher the A’s used regularly, including No. 1 choice Josh Phegley. The team’s now facing a decision on Phegley, whom it could non-tender now that Murphy – also a right-handed hitter – is in the fold. If Phegley does go, it would make sense for the A’s to pursue a lefty-swinging backup to pair with Murphy. There will be a few available in free agency in ex-A’s favorite Stephen Vogt, recent A’s target Matt Wieters and Alex Avila.

With Oakland already pushing up against this year’s $92MM-plus opening-day payroll, it doesn’t appear the club’s in for an especially active offseason. However, A’s executive vice president of baseball operations Billy Beane and general manager David Forst don’t necessarily need to oversee an aggressive winter. They’ve already built a quality roster that looks as if it’ll contend again in 2020.

Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates

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The Pirates had a Murphy’s Law season in 2019, finishing what they hoped would be a competitive campaign with a 69-93 record that landed them in the NL Central cellar. Thanks to their ever-present payroll issues, they’ll face several tough decisions this winter.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Gregory Polanco, OF: $22MM through 2021 (including buyout of 2022 option; contract also contains 2023 option)
  • Felipe Vazquez, LHP: $13.5MM through 2021 (including buyout of 2022 options; contract also contains 2023 option)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Starling Marte, CF: $11.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout (contract also includes 2021 option)
  • Chris Archer, RHP: $9MM club option with a $1.75MM buyout (contract also includes 2021 option)

Free Agents

Like more than one quarter of the teams in baseball, the Pirates’ offseason began with the search for a new manager. Clint Hurdle, just days after publicly stating that he’d been assured of his return in 2020, was fired with two years remaining on his contract. The Pirates, who haven’t been in the market for a new manager in a decade, have reportedly interviewed Twins bench coach Derek Shelton, Athletics bench coach Ryan Christensen and Cardinals first base coach Stubby Clapp — each of whom has managed in the minors but not the big leagues. Former Rangers manager Jeff Banister is reported to be under consideration, too, as are Athletics quality control coach Mark Kotsay, Diamondbacks director of player development Mike Bell and Astros bench coach Joe Espada.

A new team president will need to be brought into the fold as well following this week’s announcement that Frank Coonelly will depart after 13 seasons. That search won’t be as exhaustive, it seems, as the Bucs are reportedly set to name a replacement as soon as next Monday.

The departure of Hurdle came not only after another disappointing season in terms of wins and losses but on the heels of reported discord in the clubhouse. Kyle Crick injured his finger in a fistfight that broke out with closer Felipe Vazquez, but that was only the beginning of the team’s Vazquez troubles.

A bombshell report in September brought forth charges of statutory sexual assault of a minor against Vazquez. A criminal complaint released by Westmoreland County shortly thereafter revealed, even more abhorrently, that during conversations with the police, Vazquez admitted to prior sexual contact with the alleged victim — a minor. Precisely what will happen with the remaining $13.5MM he’s owed by the Pirates will depend on the course of criminal and immigration proceedings along with any ensuing league discipline. Whether or not the contract will be voided entirely isn’t known; what is clear is that Vazquez will not receive his salary while he’s not a member of the roster. Given what has been reported to this point, it’s difficult to imagine him pitching for the the Pirates again — or for any other MLB team.

The altercation between Crick and Vazquez wasn’t the only instance of a behind-the-scenes clubhouse problem in 2019, though. Setup man Keone Kela was suspended by the team after a reported altercation with bullpen coach Euclides Rojas. Kela had also previously butted heads with and been disciplined by the Rangers, who traded him to the Pirates in 2018. Still just 26 years old, Kela has struck out 30 percent of the hitters he has faced in the Majors and is clearly a high-end talent, but he’ll likely be on the trade block this winter. The Pirates, after all, also explored the possibility of moving him back in July. That series of off-field issues won’t do his trade value any favors, but Kela, who is entering his final season of club control, is an obvious change-of-scenery candidate.

As is typical with the low-budget Pirates, there will be more trade scenarios to explore, but the extent to which they’re motivated to make a deal is dependent on where ownership sets the payroll threshold. Pittsburgh opened 2019 with a meager $74.8MM on the books, and at present they’re projected to come in around $71.4MM (assuming no non-tenders and assuming the options of both Starling Marte and Chris Archer are exercised). Take away Vazquez’s $5.75MM salary but add in another $6-7MM to round out the roster with pre-arbitration players, and the Buccos are close to the payroll with which they opened last season after an 82-79 finish. Despite their dip in record, the Pirates did somehow manage to slightly outdraw their 2018 total of 1.464 million fans (1.491 million). However, they also still ranked 14th in 2019 National League attendance — ahead of only the Marlins.

Pittsburgh’s Opening Day payroll topped $90MM each season from 2015-17 before sliding to $86MM in 2018 and the aforementioned $74.8MM in 2019. Put another way, the Bucs can afford to increase payroll. Ownership’s willingness to do so in a season with diminished expectations of winning, however, is far from a given. So, if payroll is pared back further — or if a more long-term outlook is adopted after a 93-loss season — who could GM Neal Huntington look to move?

The Bucs reportedly aren’t shopping Marte, although even if they were, it wouldn’t behoove them to broadcast that intention. More importantly, they may not find a better time to move him. Marte still has two affordable years remaining on his contract at a time when it’s extremely difficult to see Pittsburgh contending in the NL Central and at a time when several hopeful contenders need center fielders. The Phillies, Braves, D-backs, Padres, Giants, White Sox and Rangers are all among the clubs who could realistically look for an impactful center fielder this winter. Philadelphia’s need is particularly glaring.

Despite a lack of certainty in the Pirates’ rotation — more on that later — it also strikes me as worth pondering whether the club will look to find a change of scenery for Archer as well. Selling low on a pitcher for whom they paid an exorbitant price in the first place would sting, but things haven’t panned out for Archer in Pittsburgh. The Pirates didn’t have success trying to push Archer back into throwing a two-seam fastball — a pitch he’d already abandoned once in his career — and they were unable to help him curb his home-run troubles even after kicking the two-seamer to the curb once again in mid-June.

However, after cutting bait on that lackluster sinker, Archer struck out a whopping 31.3 percent of the hitters he faced and induced swinging strikes at a 13.4 percent clip. Those are encouraging signs from a pitcher who also has above-average spin on his breaking ball, above-average velocity on his heater and two years and $20MM remaining on his contract. That’s an eminently affordable rate for most teams, but it’s perhaps more than the Pirates care to commit to a pitcher who now looks like a reclamation project after struggling to fit into Pittsburgh’s mold. Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows aren’t walking back through the door, but the Pirates could definitely still extract some value if Archer is shipped elsewhere. That the offseason trade market is light on intriguing pitchers only enhances Archer’s appeal.

The question for the Bucs would be what to target in these theoretical trade scenarios. Embarking on a full rebuild would mean simply prioritizing the best available young talent, but they haven’t indicated that they’ll be going down that road. In terms of immediate roster needs, the Pirates are largely set in the infield. Kevin Newman impressed at shortstop in his rookie season, Adam Frazier enjoyed a solid year and Josh Bell finally tapped into the power that made him such a touted prospect. Jacob Stallings had a terrific defensive year behind the plate but didn’t offer much offense. Fellow catcher Elias Diaz, who missed the beginning of the season due to a viral infection, had a lost year all around.

In the outfield, Bryan Reynolds — acquired in what was at the time an unpopular Andrew McCutchen trade — is going to garner Rookie of the Year consideration and looks like a potential long-term piece. Gregory Polanco’s first year back from shoulder surgery was a dud, but he’s signed for at least two more seasons and only a year removed from a solid 2018 showing.

The points of upgrade in the lineup seem clear: the Pirates could use help at third base, behind the plate and (if they trade Marte) at one outfield spot.

At the hot corner, Colin Moran has been serviceable but unspectacular when hitting against right-handed pitching and virtually unplayable against lefties in his career. He’s not a great defender, but Moran has yet to even reach arbitration eligibility, so he’ll be back as an option. The Pirates have top prospect Ke’Bryan Hayes, one of the game’s elite defensive prospects, looming in Triple-A. He could push for a big league roster spot by next summer, so a stopgap at third base or a platoon partner for Moran is all that’s really needed. That can be found in free agency (e.g. Logan Forsythe, Todd Frazier or Tim Beckham, assuming the latter is non-tendered).

In the outfield, the Pirates currently have Reynolds, Marte and Polanco, making them likelier to add depth pieces than a starting-caliber name — if they keep Marte. If he’s moved, the club could look to get a young outfielder back, but the free-agent market will also have ample corner options. Avisail Garcia and Kole Calhoun (assuming his option is bought out) could fit the bill, or the Pirates could simply re-sign Melky Cabrera, who was productive early in 2019 before his offense cratered later in the year.

Things are trickier behind the plate. Diaz looked like a potential option following a quietly productive 2018 campaign, but his illness-shortened season makes him more of a question mark. Stallings showed great defensive aptitude, but he’ll soon turn 30 and has just 282 MLB plate appearances under his belt. Catching help would be a logical area of focus in trades. Even if the Pirates hang onto their top chips, it should be addressed in free agency. Yasmani Grandal is going to be too expensive, but a second-tier option like Jason Castro, Travis d’Arnaud or Robinson Chirinos would likely fit into their price range.

The bigger questions for the Pirates come on the pitching staff. Jameson Taillon’s second career Tommy John surgery, paired with Archer’s struggles, was a massive blow to the Pirates’ 2020 hopes. Add in the fact that uber-prospect Mitch Keller was shelled in 48 MLB innings, and the rotation outlook is unexpectedly bleak. (To Keller’s credit, he was plagued by a ridiculous .475 average on balls in play and did rack up 65 strikeouts, so there’s cause for optimism moving forward.) The rest of Pittsburgh’s rotation includes team innings leader Joe Musgrove, who profiles as a mid-rotation arm, and two pitchers who posted ERAs north of 5.00 in 2019 (Trevor Williams and Steven Brault).

In the bullpen, things are similarly cloudy — particularly with Vazquez likely out of the picture and Kela standing out as a trade candidate. Richard Rodriguez and Michael Feliz turned in solid ERAs with more questionable secondary stats. The rest of the relief corps was a revolving door of shrug emojis. Pirates relievers ranked 23rd in the Majors in ERA, 22nd in FIP and 20th in xFIP as a collective unit in 2019, and that was with Vazquez and Kela combining for 89 2/3 innings. The incumbent group offers minimal hope for improvement.

Whether the Pirates move their most desirable assets now or reload and make another run in 2020, they’re going to need multiple arms added to the pitching staff, some catching help and some infield depth. If they keep Marte and Archer, they’ll likely be limited to low-cost fliers on rebound candidates, given that they’ll already be within $9MM of last year’s Opening Day payroll mark. If one or both of that pair is moved to another club, Pittsburgh could technically spend more aggressively, but the urgency to do so would be diminished, as dealing Marte and/or Archer would in many ways signal a step back.

Barring an unexpected payroll hike, the Pirates don’t look like major players in free agency (as usual). Contending in next year’s NL Central looks like a significant long shot, and the extent to which they believe that possible will have a direct impact on the future of players like Marte and Archer.

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Angels

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Once again, the Angels are coming off a season in which they failed to capitalize on the presence of baseball’s best player, Mike Trout. The Angels, who have gone to the playoffs just once since Trout’s major league introduction in 2011, stumbled to a dismal 72-90 record this year. In fairness, though, the club dealt with adversity that would have been difficult for anyone to overcome. There were myriad injuries (including to the likes of Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Justin Upton), but worse than anything, there was the death of left-hander Tyler Skaggs. A beloved teammate and integral member of the Angels’ rotation, Skaggs passed away July 1, and the Angels never recovered on the field.

The Angels fell way out of contention in the second half of the season, which cost manager Brad Ausmus his job after just one year in the role. They quickly replaced Ausmus with the highly respected and accomplished Joe Maddon, a perennial winner who they hope will help turn their fortunes around in 2020. If not, general manager Billy Eppler could be the next key member of the organization who finds himself on the chopping block. Now on the verge of a contract year, Eppler’s likely facing a make-or-break offseason – one that could see the Angels make an earnest attempt to finally return to the playoffs.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Odds are quite good the Angels’ winter will largely center on acquiring starting pitching, as their rotation has regularly been a below-average unit in recent years. It was especially bad in 2019 (thanks in part to the loss of Skaggs), evidenced by the group’s 30th-place ranking in fWAR and 29th overall ERA. The return of Ohtani, who was unable to pitch at all this year after undergoing Tommy John surgery last October, could be like a major acquisition in and of itself. But it would be foolhardy to count on Ohtani as the end-all, be-all, given that he’s coming off two surgeries (including a September knee procedure) and barely has 50 MLB innings to his name.

If he’s actually healthy, Ohtani may be able to provide the Angels’ rotation front-line production, though the rest of their options look decidedly less promising. Andrew Heaney and Griffin Canning appear to be fine complementary pieces, but the Halos need to aim higher if they’re going to force their way into the playoff race next season. What can they do? The answer’s obvious: Either sign Astros superstar and potential AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole or, if he opts out of his Nationals contract, Stephen Strasburg.

Cole and Strasburg stand out as the crown jewels of the upcoming winter’s free-agent pitching class, both are Southern California natives and the Angels have the spending capacity to reel in either. Super-agent Scott Boras represents Cole and Strasburg, which could theoretically serve as a roadblock for an Angels team whose owner, Arte Moreno, has had beef with Boras in the past. However, the Angels are just a winter removed from adding a Boras client, Matt Harvey, as their largest offseason signing. Harvey cost “only” a guaranteed $11MM, granted, while Cole may be on his way to a record contract for a pitcher (at least $220MM, if not significantly higher), and Strasburg should be able to secure something close to $150MM.

However much Cole and Strasburg end up raking in, it would make sense for the Angels to go all-in on one of the two. Deciding to buy low on the likes of Harvey and Trevor Cahill while tiptoeing around the Patrick Corbin market a year ago blew up in the team’s face. Now, it’s all the more evident the Angels need an ace-caliber hurler to join Ohtani near the top of their rotation, and either Cole or Strasburg would fit the bill.

Let’s say the Angels do get Cole or Strasburg. Then what? Well, they’d still need at least one more quality veteran starter. Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Jake Odorizzi are the best of the rest, though each should command paydays of at least $50MM. In all likelihood, any of them would be too pricey for a team with Cole or Strasburg in tow. However, they’d still be able to pick up less expensive help. Competent innings have been hard to come by in recent years for an Angels club that injuries have consistently ravaged, so someone like Dallas Keuchel (if he again encounters a disappointing market), Cole Hamels (if he has to settle for a lesser deal than expected), Rick Porcello, Tanner Roark, Kyle Gibson or Julio Teheran (likely via trade) could make sense as a secondary addition to the legit ace we’re forecasting the Angels sign.

The Angels’ bullpen looks like a less pressing issue than their starting staff, yet it’s still an area they could stand to address. Hansel Robles was quietly one of the surprise relievers in baseball in 2019; Ty Buttrey, Cam Bedrosian, Noe Ramirez and Felix Pena put up respectable years in their own right; and Keynan Middleton should be ready for a full season as he continues to distance himself from May 2018 TJ surgery. All six of those hurlers are in line to return to the Halos next season, which is – for lack of a better word – a relief. They’re all righties, though, so it wouldn’t be a shock for the Angels to at least target a southpaw to complement them. Probably not Aroldis Chapman or Will Smith, who’d cost too much for a team that has to pour so much money into its rotation, but Jake Diekman and Francisco Liriano would make for affordable targets. It’s important to note that Diekman and Liriano are consistent against lefty and righty batters alike – which is a must-have trait for a southpaw with MLB set to implement a three-batter minimum rule in 2020.

As for the Angels’ collection of position players, Trout and Upton will keep occupying two-thirds of the outfield; Andrelton Simmons will continue to hold down short; the underrated David Fletcher will primarily man second or third; Ohtani makes for a more-than-capable DH; and for better or worse, Albert Pujols will stay as a DH/first baseman. But what of the rest of their lineup?

The Halos are likely stuck with another year of Zack Cozart, who could see a fair bit of action at second or third if he’s healthy. Fellow infielder Luis Rengifo had a decent rookie season, while yet another first-year infielder, Matt Thaiss, at least showed some pop. There’s also Tommy La Stella, who was amid an unexpected All-Star year before suffering what basically proved to be a season-ending fractured tibia at the beginning of July. So, it’s entirely possible the Angels will be comfortable with Fletcher, Cozart, Rengifo, Thaiss and La Stella at second and third. If not, free agency may be a route for the club to take. FAs-to-be Anthony Rendon and Josh Donaldson look wholly unrealistic, but that may not be the case for Mike Moustakas/Todd Frazier at third or the slew of low-priced second basemen on the cusp of reaching the open market.

Moving to the outfield, the main question is whether the Angels will buy out solid all-around right fielder Kole Calhoun. It seems likely, as doing so would save the team $13MM to spend on other sore spots. They could easily plug in Brian Goodwin and/or another similarly inexpensive player in right as a stopgap as they wait for one of their top prospects to show up. Angels farmhands Jo Adell – who’s among the cream-of-the-crop prospects in baseball – and Brandon Marsh are closing on the majors, so it seems unlikely the team will allocate a substantial amount of money to right field in 2020.

Aside from the Angels’ pitching staff, the catcher position stands out as their most troubling area. Last winter’s relatively cheap signing of Jonathan Lucroy failed, while in-season pickups Max Stassi and Anthony Bemboom recorded abysmal numbers. The Angels are now left with Stassi, Bemboom and Kevan Smith (who had a passable overall season at the plate but floundered in the second half) as the only backstops left on their 40-man roster. That’s obviously not ideal. Still, it’s up in the air how much money the Angels will spend to upgrade the position. It could depend on how much they use to fix their rotation, which should be the priority. Should a Cole or Strasburg join the mix, it’s likely the game’s No. 1 pending free-agent catcher, Yasmani Grandal (an Angels target last winter), will end up out of their price range. Otherwise, any of Jason Castro, Travis d’Arnaud, Robinson Chirinos or even Austin Romine (whom Eppler knows from the Yankees) look like players who could potentially pique the Angels’ interest.

“Obviously, Arte’s never been worried about spending money,” Maddon recently said of Moreno. That’ll need to prove true in the next several weeks, as the clearest path to properly address the Angels’ most glaring weakness – starting pitching – will be throwing cash at the problem. Whether it’s Cole or Strasburg, it seems imperative for the team to land at least one of them if it’s going to finally crawl out of the muck in 2020. It’s hard to imagine this going down as a resoundingly successful offseason for the Angels if they swing and miss on both of those aces.

Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

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The Orioles are still working through the ugly stages of a rebuilding effort, but could still be an opportunistic buyer of high-value talent.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Chris Davis, 1B: $69MM through 2022 ($6MM annually deferred, without interest, all the way through 2037)
  • Alex Cobb, RHP: $29MM through 2021 ($4.5MM annually deferred through 2032)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Baltimore Orioles depth chart | Baltimore Orioles payroll outlook]

There’s not a lot to love about the MLB roster in Baltimore, and the few established pieces look like trade candidates. That makes for a freewheeling situation for still-fresh GM Mike Elias, who has loads of roster and payroll flexibility to work with.

The Orioles aren’t obligated contractually for very much spending, but the promises they do have out — to Chris Davis and Alex Cobb — are near-complete write-offs. That’s not to say that a turnaround is impossible to imagine in either case, though it’s tougher to envision for Davis. (Whether and when he’s cut loose may be an ownership call.) The O’s will hope that Cobb can function as an important part of their 2020 pitching mix and perhaps ultimately be dealt. But it’s nearly impossible to imagine either contract being movable this winter.

Things begin getting interesting from a transactional perspective when you look down the list of arbitration-eligible players. I’ve recently suggested Jonathan Villar as a trade candidate. But my eyes bulged when I saw his arbitration projection. It’s tough to see Villar as a highly appealing trade candidate at that price. The O’s may well be better served letting him go test the market while reinvesting the cash on other opportunities. Hanser Alberto is an easier piece to move, though the Baltimore organization may also prefer to maintain the middle-infield stability if nothing interesting is offered up (especially if Villar is sent packing).

With little in the way of player-contract trade capital, Elias and co. have surely dedicated a good amount of thought and analysis to a trio of fairly intriguing, homegrown players. First baseman/outfielder Trey Mancini is the organization’s best hitter and current flag bearer. Righty Dylan Bundy is still youthful and possesses relatively rare swing-and-miss stuff for a starter. And reliever Mychal Givens has an electric arm, though as with Bundy that hasn’t always translated to results. It’s not hard to imagine each of these players drawing trade interest from various other organizations. None is dirt cheap or without his warts, but each now has ample MLB experience and an appealing skillset.

The O’s really can’t afford to cling onto Mancini, Bundy, and Givens with the idea that they’ll help spring a return to contention. But there’s also not much reason to sell these players off just to make a move. In concept, they’re the organization’s slugger, ace, and closer; the team needs gate draws and some baseline competence. And it can certainly hope that some or all kick up their value during the first half of 2020.

There’s also another possibility here, mostly with regard to Mancini. As the 27-year-old bounced back from a messy 2018 effort, chatter increased about a possible extension. There’s not a huge amount of appeal in promising big cash for the late-arbitration and early-free-agency seasons of a good-but-not-great corner outfielder who is in sight of his thirties. But it’s not impossible to imagine the O’s being willing to offer a reasonable sum to entrench Mancini as a holdover star and bridge to their next contending outfit.

Supposing Mancini remains on hand, the O’s may soon have a nice power duo taking aim at the readily assailable walls of Camden Yards. Top prospect Ryan Mountcastle, another first base/corner outfield option, is probably as ready as he’ll ever be after a nice Triple-A season. (Though he may still remain in the minors for a few weeks out of camp owing to service-time considerations.) Mountcastle doesn’t walk much at all and has not stuck at more valuable defensive positions, but remains a well-regarded prospect with the bat.

Between those two, Davis, and DH/corner infielder Renato Nunez, the Orioles are covered in the defensively limited slugger department. They’ve got a decent number of outfield possibilities as well, limiting the likelihood that the organization will target players who do their defensive work on the grass. Up the middle, the team does have a pair of possibilities in Austin Hays and Cedric Mullins. Former Rule 5 pick Anthony Santander probably deserves a longer look in a corner capacity, while DJ Stewart and Dwight Smith Jr. are other options.

Speaking broadly, there isn’t a need to address this area of the roster. But the O’s could surely make room if a particularly interesting opportunity arises and will at a minimum consider bringing in some veteran camp competition. Another spot that’s even less in need of tinkering is behind the dish. Chance Sisco and Pedro Severino form a solid, cheap, and youthful duo that can be supported with minor signings. Recent top overall draft pick Adley Rutschman won’t be rushed, but isn’t expected to take much development time.

The 4-5-6 places in the lineup are a source of greater intrigue — particularly if, as noted above, Villar and/or Alberto end up on the move. The club held onto Rule 5’er Richie Martin all season long to gain his rights permanently, but Martin is almost certainly due for a much-needed stint in the upper minors. There’ll likely be at least one middle-infield opening. At the hot corner, Rio Ruiz is still just 25 and picked up the pace offensively in the second half. But he’s not a slam-dunk to hold down the position all year long. Fortunately for the Orioles, there are loads of second and third-base types floating around this year’s free agent market. The Baltimore organization could pick a buy-low target, hunt for younger players that shake loose, or even consider taking on an unwanted contract from another team as part of a larger trade.

All of that is prelude to the area of primary focus this winter for the Baltimore front office: the pitching staff. On the one hand, the situation presents an unquestionable jam. The Orioles’ pitching staff was altogether brutal in 2019, easily lagging the rest of baseball with a collective 5.67 ERA and eye-watering 1.90 home runs per nine. There’s no spending your way out of that. On the other hand, these O’s won’t be competitive and don’t need to be. They ought to have plenty of cash to put to work if they see interesting opportunities to add. And while Camden Yards (and the AL East) make for a deterrent to potential bounceback pitching targets, the Orioles can promise ample opportunity to hurlers that need a chance to get their careers back on track.

The rotation is a particular need. John Means was a major bright spot in 2019, turning in 155 innings of 3.60 ERA ball, but some ERA estimators were very down on his underlying performance (5.48 xFIP; 5.02 SIERA). Bundy is a useful pitcher that still may have a bit of upside, but he has yet to put it all together. Perhaps Cobb can bounce back after hip surgery, but he’s a total wild card. There are a few notable farmhands that could be possibilities — Hunter Harvey (who debuted last year in a relief role), Keegan Akin, Zac Lowther, Dean Kremer, Michael Baumann, Cody Sedlock — but the O’s will take the long view on them and can’t be sure what to expect.

It seems reasonable to anticipate some additions to that unit — perhaps reasonably significant ones. Asher Wojciechowski and Gabriel Ynoa were among the pitchers that gave the Orioles some innings last year; they and others remain available. But it’s fair to presume the club would rather be trotting out other hurlers while also avoiding some of the scrambling that was needed this year. When it comes to open-market and/or trade targets, Elias and company arguably ought to aim higher than they did last winter with Nathan Karns and Dan Straily.

The bullpen isn’t much different, except that it’s much easier to throw a bunch of arms at the situation — particularly with all the names just noted floating around. But there, too, there’s cause to think that some veteran supplementation would help, especially if Givens ends up on the move. Attracting decent bounceback candidates may be even tougher in the relief realm, but offering an MLB contract and late-inning role can do wonders.

If 2019 was mostly about landing Rutschman and overhauling the organizational structure to suit Elias’s vision, then how about 2020? Well, the club will be picking second in the coming draft and can surely look ahead to another lofty pick in 2021. But now’s also the time for the new front office to make shrewd assessments of its own sub-elite prospects, identify some diamonds in the rough, and perform the kinds of subtle roster tweaks that can make a big difference down the line.

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