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2019-20 Offseason Outlook

Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Diamondbacks feature quite a few roster chameleons, giving the team plenty of options this winter as it seeks to pursue immediate competitiveness without muddying the long-term outlook.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Ketel Marte: $21MM through 2022 (including buyouts of 2023-24 options)
  • Yasmany Tomas: $17MM through 2020
  • Eduardo Escobar: $14.5MM through 2021
  • Mike Leake: $6MM through 2020 (Cardinals & Mariners pay remainder of contract, including $9MM of salary and $5MM buyout of 2021 option)
  • Merrill Kelly: $3.5MM through 2020 (including buyout of 2021 option)
  • Diamondbacks also owe $20.667MM of salary to Zack Greinke through 2021

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Arizona Diamondbacks depth chart | Arizona Diamondbacks payroll outlook]

We heaped on the praise when the D-Backs announced they had re-upped GM Mike Hazen, and for good reason. He came into a tough spot and has both produced a competitive MLB team and improved the team’s talent pipeline. Shrewd moves abound — chief among them: acquiring and then locking up Ketel Marte before his breakout — even if they haven’t all been winners.

The Diamondbacks have played generally winning baseball in a wholesome and sustainable manner. That’s nice. But they were swept out of their 2017 postseason appearance and haven’t been back since. The Dodgers may not have swum in the Snakes’ pool of late, but they still haven’t let anyone join them in the NL West deep end since they splashed around Chase Field in 2013. And it isn’t as if the L.A. organization has monopolized the division through spending alone; it’s doing it in a cost-efficient manner that’s all the more fearsome for the teams chasing them from afar. If nobody is even nipping at their heels, the Dodgers will just keep cruising.

If the D-Backs are to force the issue in the division, or at least to stand out a bit in a crowded NL wild card picture, they will need both to continue making cost-efficient improvements and to find a way to make a Marte-esque leap. They don’t need to rush out and do another Greinke deal, by any means, but as presently constituted the roster is more solid than good — and that’s assuming healthy campaigns from some players that have had recent injury issues. Hazen still hasn’t promised double-digit millions in a single free agent contract. That seems likely to change this winter.

Looking at the payroll, there’s about $47.5MM written in ink. The arbitration outlay will probably more than double that starting point — if every eligible player is tendered. The Snakes can shear about $9MM if they move on from Jake Lamb and Steven Souza … and double that if they were to non-tender or trade David Peralta. If all three are cut loose, the club would have a few additional holes to deal with but could also have over $30MM in free payroll to play with — assuming the team is again comfortable opening with over $120MM on the books. The D-Backs don’t really have any true blue-chip prospects to use as trade assets, but the club has drawn praise for possessing an especially nice volume of farm talent. That should leave a lot of pieces to work with in trade talks.

So where is the work to be done? Not in the rotation, arguably. The D-Backs have turned over much of their starting staff since this time last year. Robbie Ray is the only holdover from before the 2018-19 offseason. The club brought aboard Luke Weaver and Merrill Kelly before the 2019 season and then added Zac Gallen and Mike Leake during that just-finished campaign. It’s not likely to be an overwhelming unit, but the spots seem ably accounted for. The Snakes surely feel they filled in the gaps when they picked up Gallen and Leake over the summer. The Gallen swap looks like a potential heist, though he’ll need to repeat his stunning breakout season and the Marlins surely feel good about what they saw from prospect Jazz Chisholm after picking him up in the deal. Leake can serve the part of veteran innings eater, joining Kelly to deliver a volume of serviceable frames. Ray is a bit of a wild card but is the kind of strikeout pitcher that teams dream on, while Weaver is coming back from injury but turned in a dozen sterling starts in 2019.

So, should the D-Backs go looking for a nice upside play and/or some depth in free agency? Not necessarily. There’s more to the rotation picture. The uber-talented Taijuan Walker will be working back from Tommy John surgery, with hopes he’ll be available for a good portion of the season. Corbin Martin is doing the same, though he’s unlikely to return before later in the year and is probably not a major factor in the 2020 planning. Jon Duplantier got his first taste of the majors last year and will surely be a factor. Taylor Clarke and Alex Young are among the 40-man roster pieces that contributed last year and can again be called upon; J.B. Bukauskas and Taylor Widener are perhaps the most promising upper-level prospects, though both had less-than-ideal results in 2019.

Some of those arms will spill over to the bullpen; Duplantier and Clarke each spent time there last season. But there’s some work to be done in the relief unit. Archie Bradley, Andrew Chafin, and mid-season callup Kevin Ginkel make for a nice trio of arms. Yoan Lopez and Stefan Chricton both got the job done in 2019, though the former had questionable peripherals and the latter has to prove he can do it over a full campaign. Matt Andriese suffered from the BABIP blues and could be asked back, though it’ll cost a bit. Otherwise, it’s Jimmie Sherfy and the leftover starters — good for a band name, but questionable for a contending pen.

There isn’t an overwhelming amount of need, but the D-Backs sure could stand to add at least one established, high-quality reliever to this mix. Having utilized Bradley in a flexible manner in recent years, with the closing job being occupied mostly by short-term signees, the team seems a likely bet to once more lure a veteran to the desert with promises of 9th-inning glory. We posited the club as a potential buyer of top-class relievers in compiling our list of the top 50 free agents, though we ultimately predicted a relatively low-cost accord with the sturdy and experienced Steve Cishek. This is certainly an area the team can spend on, particularly if it ticks off other needs at lower-than-expected expense, though the market isn’t exactly laden with high-end arms. The D-Backs could take a risk on a hurler like Dellin Betances and/or explore trade options.

On the position-player side, Hazen could go in quite a few different directions. Let’s start with what is in place. Carson Kelly will be the primary backstop, with Caleb Joseph and/or some other veteran (the Snakes like to carry three catchers) supplementing him. Marte can be lined up in center or at second base alongside shortstop Nick Ahmed. Either way, two of the three slots up the middle are accounted for. At the infield corners, Eduardo Escobar is a fixture while Christian Walker and Kevin Cron can be called upon at first base pending the arrival of Seth Beer. There’s room for a left-handed-hitting reserve in the mold of Lamb, who seems unlikely to be retained at his arb price point after two consecutive forgettable campaigns. And in the outfield, the D-Backs could rely upon Souza and David Peralta for a big chunk of the action … or they could move one or both of those not-insignificant salaries and go in a different direction entirely.

The Snakes gave a lot of plate appearances to light-hitting performers last year. Lamb, Adam Jones, Jarrod Dyson, Tim Locastro, Ildemaro Vargas, Josh Rojas, and Blake Swihart combined for nearly two thousand trips to the dish; not one was within a dozen points of league average by measure of wRC+. It’s not a stretch to imagine Locastro, Vargas, and/or Rojas playing significant roles in 2020 and beyond. Ditto utility infielder Domingo Leyba. But the Snakes can’t afford to settle for that level of offensive output from such a major segment of the roster. They’ll need to fill in for the departing players and avoiding asking too much of those that remain from this list.

So, how to proceed? There are two key factors to consider here: Marte’s positional malleability and the payroll/roster flexibility in the corner outfield (and to some extent also at first base). With bench space to work with as well, there are quite a few ways in which the club could seek improvement. It was interesting to hear Hazen suggest recently that the team prefers Marte at second base. It would be easier to fill that spot from outside the organization, given the multitude of possibilities, but it appears the Snakes are likeliest to chase after a center fielder.

Put it all together, and it seems the overall focus is squarely on the outfield grass. Asked recently about Shogo Akiyama, Hazen revealed some level of interest in the Japanese center fielder. The meandering nature of the quote also served to underscore the wide-open nature of the offseason. “We think he’s a good player,” says Hazen of Akiyama. ” … We’re in the outfield market, the center-field market specifically. We’re in the entire market.”

The D-Backs do have some options up the middle, especially if they like Akiyama even more than they’ve already let on. He is arguably the only truly intriguing option on the open market, at least unless Brett Gardner considers a departure from the Yankees. But there are some trade possibilities. Starling Marte is the central focus on the trade market. He’ll be sought after by quite a few other teams as well, but there’s an argument to be made that he fits in just the right space (two years of affordable but not cheap control) for the D-Backs. It’s also possible to imagine the club looking at a few other possibilities. Old friend Ender Inciarte could conceivably be made available, depending upon how things develop in Atlanta. And Jackie Bradley Jr. figures to be dangled by the Red Sox; acquiring him might help quench Hazen’s insatiable thirst for Boston products. (We kid, but there’s no shortage of examples.) If the D-Backs can’t sort out an upgrade and are forced to utilize their existing Marte at times in center, they may come away with a timeshare veteran in the nature of Dyson, Leonys Martin, Juan Lagares, or Cameron Maybin. The club could instead utilize the speedy Locastro in such a capacity as well. Any of these fall-back possibilities would feel like a bit of a disappointment unless the Snakes end up securing other significant pieces.

None of the above-noted center field possibilities will bust the budget. Even if the Snakes score a second Marte, there should be cash left to work with to do more. And this is where things could get yet more interesting. Souza is an obvious non-tender candidate after an injury-cancelled campaign on the heels of a disastrous first year in the desert. But the Snakes could simply decide they like him better than any of the options they can get in free agency for a similar price tag. It’s actually a closer call than you might think on Peralta. He’s a rather accomplished hitter, to be sure, but the track record isn’t unassailable and he’s a 32-year-old looking to return from shoulder problems. And Peralta has long struggled against left-handed pitching. The Snakes might reasonably believe they can do more for less in trade or on the open market, though there has been no suggestion to this point that they are considering moving on.

Whether or not one or both of those players is retained — whether through arbitration or in a re-signing following a non-tender — there are many opportunities to consider. This year’s market includes a group of unusually youthful and talented corner outfielders: Nicholas Castellanos, Marcell Ozuna, Avisail Garcia, and Yasiel Puig. It isn’t hard to fall in love with some of those players’ tools; perhaps the D-Backs could consider a somewhat longer, lower-AAV contract if they like one of the group in particular. There are lefty bats in the form of Corey Dickerson, Kole Calhoun, and Yoshitomo Tsutsugo. There aren’t an immense number of obvious trade targets to consider, but the Diamondbacks could look into the likes of Trey Mancini, Clint Frazier, and perhaps even Mookie Betts or Andrew Benintendi, depending upon what the Red Sox end up pursuing. Though the Snakes have mostly worked to remove big veteran salaries, they could consider a player such as Charlie Blackmon — not that an intra-division deal is likely to be sorted out for such a fan favorite. The same issue applies to the Dodgers, who could end up with an extra outfield piece to move. Relieving the Athletics of their obligations to Stephen Piscotty could conceivably work for both teams. It’s not impossible to imagine the Mets talking about Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, or J.D. Davis. There are plenty of other possible scenarios that may be explored but are even more speculative than the ones just listed.

If that feels like relatively short-term patchwork … well, that’s pretty much what’s available. And it’s also what Hazen has done so well thus far. Putting some added financial gusto behind the effort could yield dividends. Exploring moves to bring in a star makes sense, but that’s a necessarily speculative endeavor. That approach could spill over and meld with the first base and broader bench. As noted above, the D-Backs have some younger players they like. In addition to those already listed, catcher/utilityman Daulton Varsho and first baseman/outfielder Pavin Smith could be closing in on the majors. But the former is now recovering from an ankle injury and the latter is still working to re-burnish his prospect standing.

Expecting something from the existing, younger players is sensible. But the Diamondbacks can and should reduce their reliance on them as immediate options without cutting off their paths entirely. Short-term veteran role players abound. Lefty bats seem to make particular sense given the existing array in the infield. Brock Holt is among the utility pieces that could shoulder some of the load all over the field. A lefty slugger makes tons of sense to form a platoon at first base, with Eric Thames representing the top of that market. Perhaps Mike Moustakas could reprise his surprise utility role, appearing all over the infield for the Snakes. If the Cards decide to try to shed some of Matt Carpenter’s contract to free up payroll and roster space, perhaps the Arizona org could take a chance on the veteran and come away with another desired piece as well.

It’s frankly hard to pin down a simple task list given the adaptable roster and payroll circumstances — a credit to Hazen’s handiwork. The Snakes have some shape-shifting puzzle pieces and blank Scrabble tiles to work with. It makes for a choose-your-own-offseason decision tree that could take any number of different courses over the months to come.

Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

With many of their best young position players now in the majors, the Blue Jays will focus on augmenting that group with some pitching.

Guaranteed Contracts

Other Money Owed

  • Troy Tulowitzki, SS: $18MM through 2020 ($14MM salary, $4MM buyout of 2021 club option)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Blue Jays wasted little time in adding to the rotation this offseason, acquiring righty Chase Anderson from the Brewers and exercising the $8.5MM club option on Anderson’s services for the 2020 season.  The soon-to-be 32-year-old Anderson is also controllable via a $9.5MM club option for 2021, making him more than just a pure single-season pickup.

Anderson hasn’t been overly impressive over the last two seasons, totaling 1.5 total fWAR and a 105 ERA+ over 297 innings. He has worked mostly as a starter, though Milwaukee also tended to limit Anderson’s outings before he faced batters for a third time last season.  Still, he has been a relatively durable pitcher over those two years and there is some potential in a change of scenery, even to the tough AL East.

As a pitcher with some degree of success over six MLB seasons, however, Anderson still represents an upgrade for one of the league’s shakiest rotations in 2019.  Trent Thornton and Jacob Waguespack are also tentatively penciled into the 2020 starting five based on their generally average results from last season, while Ryan Borucki is an even bigger maybe given that he only pitched 6 2/3 Major League innings due to recurring elbow problems.  Matt Shoemaker is also looking to return from an injury-shortened year, though perhaps due to some unease about his projected $3.8MM arbitration salary and how Shoemaker will rebound from a torn ACL, the Jays haven’t gotten far in contract talks with the veteran righty.

Anthony Kay, T.J. Zeuch, Sean Reid-Foley, and Thomas Pannone will also be competing for spots in Spring Training.  Top prospect Nate Pearson is likely to debut sometime in 2020, if almost certainly not on the Opening Day roster (for both service-time reasons and because Pearson has only 18 IP at the Triple-A level).

Since 2020 will be another rebuilding season for the Jays, they will have time to evaluate these and probably many other young arms to see who could factor into the plans for 2021, the date that team president/CEO Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins have loosely (though far from officially) mentioned as the starting point for a new era of competitive baseball in Toronto.  The front office has been clear, however, that more new faces will be added to the pitching mix, and the Blue Jays will be willing to spend beyond the level of just veteran reclamation projects, i.e. their acquisitions of Clayton Richard or Clay Buchholz last offseason.

There’s certainly room in the budget, as Roster Resource projects the Jays for a payroll of just under $70.25MM, and even that number could drop by a few million if a few arbitration-eligible players are non-tendered.  Looking ahead to 2021, the Jays will have only Randal Grichuk and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. on the books since Troy Tulowitzki’s contract will finally be up.

There isn’t any financial reason Toronto couldn’t make a notable signing now, perhaps in the spirit of the Nationals’ deal with Jayson Werth in the 2010-11 offseason, which served as an announcement that a rebuilding team was ready to turn the corner.  That being said, the Jays might have to severely overpay to convince a top-tier free agent (who surely would prefer to join a ready-made contender) to join a club that might not be ready to compete by 2021 at the earliest.

Yet while the likes of Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, or Hyun-Jin Ryu probably aren’t feasible, names such as Kyle Gibson, Julio Teheran, Tanner Roark, Wade Miley, Rick Porcello, or maybe even Dallas Keuchel (who the Jays reportedly had some interest in last winter) could be possible fits, perhaps in some cases just on one-year contracts.

Beyond free agency, the Anderson acquisition could hint at the Jays’ optimal strategy for using their payroll space.  The Blue Jays only gave up a minor prospect to take over the rights to Anderson’s option years from Milwaukee, and Toronto could similarly target other mid-range or better pitchers on teams that are looking to cut spending, whether it’s mid-market clubs like the Brewers or bigger-spending organizations who are looking to avoid the luxury tax.

This strategy could also be used to land position players, though the Blue Jays hope they have most of their everyday core already in place.  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be at third base, Bo Bichette at shortstop, Cavan Biggio at second base, and Gurriel in left field as the most promising cornerstones of the rebuild.  Catcher Danny Jansen, first baseman Rowdy Tellez, and outfielder/DH Teoscar Hernandez are the somewhat less settled members of the group, with Reese McGuire also perhaps vying for a timeshare with Jansen behind the plate.  Grichuk is the veteran member of the bunch with the long-term contract, though he’ll be looking to bounce back after a subpar 2019 season.

Justin Smoak’s free agency leaves a hole in the first base/DH mix, and the Jays have a vacancy in either center field or right field (whichever position isn’t filled by Grichuk).  Derek Fisher is the favorite for one outfield job, competing with other unproven candidates like Anthony Alford, Billy McKinney, or Jonathan Davis, while Brandon Drury is a utility option at multiple positions but has to rebound from a sub-replacement performance.

It’s possible Toronto could simply stick with all of these in-house options in a development year to see what they really have for the future.  For instance, the exact alignment and/or multi-positional ability of the current players may still be in question, as Atkins has suggested that Gurriel could potentially again be a candidate for second base work or Hernandez could even see some time at first or second base.  Biggio has also already bounced around a few different positions besides second base, and speculation persists that Guerrero could end up as a first baseman sooner rather than later.

The Jays might prefer to save any major acquisitions until the team knows what additions are specifically needed to be a contender.  Rather than splurging on a Nicholas Castellanos or Marcell Ozuna, the Blue Jays could look for players on one-year deals.  A veteran middle infielder (this year’s version of Freddy Galvis or Eric Sogard, essentially) would be useful, or a left-handed bat to balance out a mostly right-handed collection of outfielders.

Speaking speculatively, a reunion with Sogard would make sense.  Bringing back Smoak could also be a fit, while a bounce-back candidate like Travis Shaw might also be someone who gets a look for the first base position.  Free agent Jason Kipnis is a left-handed hitter who can play at second base and in the outfield, and has past ties to Shapiro and Atkins from their time in Cleveland.  Atkins has also said that the Jays have some interest in a trio of Japanese players (corner outfield slugger Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, rangy center fielder Shogo Akiyama and glove-first infielder Ryosuke Kikuchi) who will be available via free agency or the posting system at what should be a relatively modest price.

It wouldn’t be out of the question to see Toronto clear some room by packaging one or two of their surplus players in a trade.  Jansen and McGuire have already drawn interest, and players like Hernandez, Tellez, or any of the less-established outfielders could be trade bait if the Blue Jays feel they could consolidate two players they feel okay about into one player they really like.

Speaking of trade chips, while Atkins hasn’t heard many trade rumblings yet about Ken Giles, the closer clearly seems like perhaps the least-likely Blue Jay to be with the team come Opening Day.  Giles quite probably would have been dealt already, had it not been for an ill-timed injury in the days leading up to the July 31 trade deadline.  Giles is coming off an outstanding season that will push his price tag to a projected $8.4MM in his final arbitration year, though there figures to be some solid interest given the long list of teams in need of bullpen reinforcements.

That list actually includes the Jays themselves, who will be in the market for extra relievers even before their eventual need to replace Giles at closer.  Toronto has made a habit of acquiring veteran relievers (i.e. Daniel Hudson, David Phelps, Seunghwan Oh, Joe Smith) to short-term deals and then flipping them at the trade deadline, so expect the team to again revisit this tactic this winter.  Left-handed relief is a priority, as since Tim Mayza will miss 2020 due to Tommy John surgery, the Blue Jays only have three southpaws (Borucki, Pannone, Kay) on their current 40-man roster.

The Jays have already added one veteran with upside in claiming right-hander Anthony Bass from the Mariners.  A reunion with Ryan Tepera could also be a possibility, even though Toronto outrighted him off the 40-man roster, leading Tepera to opt for free agency.

Though the Blue Jays had the fifth-worst record (67-95) in baseball last season, they find themselves in position for a much more intriguing offseason than some of the other lesser lights who are in earlier stages of rebuilds.  While there’s still a lot of uncertainty throughout the roster, the Jays have graduated their first wave of young players to the big leagues who can be reasonably counted on as building blocks, so there’s room for the club to be aggressive if it feels the end of the rebuild is near.  The types of pitching additions Toronto makes this winter could provide some interesting hints about where the Jays feel they are in their path back to contention.

Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Cardinals had a middling 58-55 record as late as Aug. 8, yet a blistering stretch run saw St. Louis win the NL Central and end a three-year (lengthy by Cardinals standards) postseason drought.  The Cards also defeated the Braves in the NLDS before falling to the Nationals in the NLCS, and the one-sided nature of that NLCS sweep continued the somewhat inconsistent nature of the Cardinals’ season.  The focus will clearly be on upgrading the offense as the Cards look to take a step forward and get back to the World Series in 2020.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: $130MM through 2024
  • Miles Mikolas, SP: $68MM through 2023
  • Matt Carpenter, 1B/3B: $39MM through 2021 (includes $2MM buyout of $18.5MM club/vesting option for 2022)
  • Dexter Fowler, OF: $33MM through 2021
  • Carlos Martinez, SP/RP: $23.5MM through 2021 (includes $500K buyout of $17MM club option for 2022; Cards also have $18MM club option for 2023 with $500K buyout)
  • Paul DeJong, SS: $22.5MM through 2023 (includes $2MM buyout of $12.5MM club option for 2024; Cards also have $15MM club option for 2025 with $1MM buyout)
  • Yadier Molina, C: $20MM through 2020
  • Andrew Miller, RP: $14MM through 2020 (includes $2.5MM buyout of $12MM club/vesting option for 2021)
  • Kolten Wong, 2B: $11.25MM through 2020 (includes $1MM buyout of $12.5MM club option for 2021)
  • Brett Cecil, RP: $7MM through 2020
  • Jose Martinez, 1B/OF: $2MM through 2020

Other Obligations

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

Four straight seasons without a playoff berth would’ve led to rumblings about changes within the St. Louis braintrust, though in the wake of the Cardinals’ solid finish, the organization gave contract extensions to president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, GM Mike Girsch, and manager Mike Schildt.

The front office now faces the challenge of upgrading a lineup that already has a lot of personnel in place.  One look at the “guaranteed contracts” section above indicates how much money the Cards have already invested in position players, but none of that group showed much at the plate in 2019.  Paul Goldschmidt led the pack with a modest 116 wRC+, which was the lowest of his nine-year career and perhaps a red flag given how the first baseman was just signed to a pricey five-year extension last spring.

Kolten Wong (108 wRC+), Dexter Fowler (103), Jose Martinez (101), Paul DeJong (100), Matt Carpenter (95), and Yadier Molina (87) all fell into the average-to-disappointing range in terms of offensive production.  This isn’t to say that there wasn’t significant value here — Wong and DeJong are arguably the best defensive middle infield combo in baseball, and Fowler’s season actually represented a solid bounce-back after a disastrous 2018 campaign.  But with this core group all likely to return in 2020, the Cardinals have only a few empty positions to add some extra pop to the lineup.

The infield is set with Goldschmidt at first base, Wong at second base, DeJong at short, and Carpenter penciled in at third base and looking to rebound from a career-worst year.  Carpenter is another player who signed an extension last spring, and while his track record is strong enough that St. Louis likely might have brought him back anyway under the terms of his original contract (an $18.5MM club option for 2020, which became guaranteed under his new extension), there also isn’t any guarantee that he’ll avoid further decline as he enters his age-34 season.

Carpenter’s struggles made Tommy Edman’s emergence all the more critical to the Cardinals’ success in 2019.  Edman hit .304/.350/.500 in 349 plate appearances as s rookie, getting increased playing time at third base down the stretch in addition to some time spent at second base and in right field.  Edman spent the bulk of his minor league career as a shortstop, making him a valuable multi-positional bench piece for the Cards heading into next season.  Ideally, the Cardinals hope to use Edman all over the diamond rather than require him to continually step in at third base, since a resurgent Carpenter would go a long way toward rebuilding the offense.

Fowler can play center field in a pinch but is best suited to right field at this stage of his career, thus leaving Harrison Bader as the Cards’ best in-house option up the middle.  Bader’s center field glovework is so outstanding that St. Louis could probably live with him as just a defense-first regular, if the rest of the lineup could better pick up the offensive slack.  The Cardinals would be overjoyed if Bader replicated his 2018 numbers (107 wRC+ in 427 PA), but if not, the club could go with some kind of a timeshare with Fowler in center.  Fowler did play 377 innings there in 2019.

That still wouldn’t be a big solve in a St. Louis outfield that is full of question marks, though it isn’t to say that the Cardinals are short on personnel.  Beyond Fowler, Bader, the defensively-limited Martinez, and utilitymen Edman and Yairo Munoz, there’s also top prospect Tyler O’Neill ready for a longer look, Lane Thomas and Randy Arozarena as two more youngsters who looked good in limited action during their rookie seasons, and another star prospect in Dylan Carlson down at Triple-A.

It’s a group that is long on potential, but there isn’t guarantee that that potential will manifest itself in everyday solutions for the 2020 roster.  Free agents like Corey Dickerson, Kole Calhoun or other veterans who could be signed to relatively inexpensive shorter-term deals would add some proven ability to the mix.

In terms of longer-term commitments, the Cards have had some recent discussions with Marcell Ozuna’s camp about a possible reunion.  The common thinking had long been that the Cardinals would let Ozuna walk in free agency after two decent but unspectacular years in St. Louis, with the Cards collecting a compensatory draft pick via the qualifying offer that Ozuna is likely to reject.

That extra pick could also make the Cardinals more likely to surrender a pick of their own to sign one of the other nine QO free agents.  Of that group, Josh Donaldson has long been a Cardinals target, though signing him would create the problem of what to do with Carpenter.  Will Smith would help firm up a bullpen that has some ninth inning questions — if Mozeliak and Girsch aren’t hesitant about committing another big contract to a reliever after the underwhelming results from Brett Cecil and Andrew Miller in St. Louis.

Gerrit Cole will likely fall beyond the Cards’ price range, but Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler, Jake Odorizzi or even Stephen Strasburg could be targeted in an effort to further solidify an already strong rotation.  Jack Flaherty emerged as the Cardinals’ ace down the stretch, while Miles Mikolas, Dakota Hudson, and Adam Wainwright all provided quality innings.

Wainwright seems likely to be re-signed, but given his age and the shaky peripherals that underlined Hudson’s seemingly sharp 3.35 ERA, one more veteran arm would definitely add some reinforcement to the starting five.  Beyond the qualifying offer types, names like Cole Hamels, Dallas Keuchel, or Kyle Gibson would make sense.  The grounder-heavy attack of the latter two pitchers would make them particularly good fits for a strong defensive team like the Cardinals.

In terms of in-house rotation depth, Daniel Ponce de Leon, Austin Gomber, or Genesis Cabrera could be deployed as starters or relievers.  Former top prospect Alex Reyes is also technically in the mix, but it’s anyone’s guess as to what Reyes could add to the bullpen or rotation after yet another injury-plagued year.  At this point, he’s thrown all of 67 1/3 innings between the majors and minors over the past three seasons combined.

Perhaps the more realistic X-factor is Carlos Martinez, who will be given another look as a starting pitcher in Spring Training.  Shoulder problems forced Martinez into the bullpen in the last two seasons, though the righty made the most of the situation by delivering some strong numbers in 2019 (3.17 ERA, 9.9 K/9, 2.94 K/BB over 48 1/3 IP) and even taking over closing duties in the wake of Jordan Hicks’ Tommy John surgery on June 26.  Hicks could return late next season.

Depending on what additions are make to the starting five, Martinez might well end up as the closer again, though St. Louis could still look to add another reliever with closing experience to the pen.  Smith would be the biggest possible get, but even a lower-tier option like Sergio Romo would be much less costly and perhaps all the cushion the Cardinals need given Martinez’s success in the closer role.  Among internal options, Miller has saved some games in the past, and breakout reliever Giovanny Gallegos could also be considered for save situations.

Backup catcher is the most obvious bench need, and re-signing Matt Wieters might be the easiest potential option.  The Cards would likely prefer Wieters or another experienced backstop ahead of Andrew Knizner, who made his MLB debut last season and has been tabbed as the Cardinals’ catcher of the future….assuming the ageless Molina ever retires, that is.  Molina is looking for a rebound season after his play, particularly his offense, was hampered by thumb problems in 2019.

One wrinkle to the team’s underachieving play for much of the season is that St. Louis might already have a good idea about what some of its assets might net on the trade market.  Such players as Carlos Martinez, Jose Martinez, O’Neill, Thomas, and more were mentioned in trade rumors last summer and even last offseason.  Given the crowded roster, one can certainly make the case that the Cardinals are well-suited to be a popular figure in trade negotiations this winter.

Aside from Goldschmidt, Flaherty, Molina, and probably Mikolas and Gallegos, it could be argued that every player on the Cardinals’ big league roster could be a trade candidate, depending on how big a splash the club feels it needs.  Packaging a young outfielder with Fowler to clear the outfield logjam and get Fowler’s contract off the books?  Likewise, maybe packaging a young player with Carpenter, if another team wants to take the risk on a Carpenter bounce-back?  Selling relatively high on Wong or DeJong?  There are no shortage of scenarios that could be floated, as the Cardinals have an on-paper surplus at multiple positions and have shown the willingness to spend in free agency to address any other roster holes.  Currently, the Cards project to an Opening Day payroll of about $162MM, which would match their Opening Day mark from 2019.  Trades could lower that total outlay, of course, and it’s possible that ownership is willing to push a bit further on the heels of an NLCS return.

The Cards have more questions than most teams coming off a League Championship Series appearance, but there’s enough talent on hand and enough potential for future moves that they could be one of the offseason’s more fascinating teams to watch.

Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

Newly-hired chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom faces an immediate challenge in getting the Red Sox back to the postseason while simultaneously navigating a difficult payroll situation.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

After 15 seasons in the Rays’ front office, Bloom is no stranger to the difficulties of trying to manage a payroll while also trying to keep a competitive team on the field.  It’s just that now, Bloom will be dealing with a payroll more than three times as larger than anything he ever dealt with in Tampa Bay — not to mention exponentially more pressure from fans, media, and his own bosses.  As evidenced with predecessors Ben Cherington and Dave Dombrowski, not even a recent World Series victory can save the head of a Red Sox front office if team ownership isn’t satisfied with immediate results.

As of late September, the organization’s plan was to get under the $208MM Competitive Balance Bax threshold, though Red Sox CEO Sam Kennedy somewhat walked that back by stating that avoiding the luxury tax was a “goal but not a mandate.”  The Sox have exceeded the CBT threshold in each of the last two seasons, and thus as a three-time repeater would face a 50 percent tax on every dollar spent over the $208MM line in 2020, plus an added 12.5% surtax if their luxury payroll falls within the $228-$248MM range.

As currently comprised, the Red Sox have a luxury tax number of just over $236.3MM (as per Roster Resource) for next season.  Ducking under the $228MM mark seems feasible.  However, it would take some judicious cutting and/or creative trades to slide under the $208MM threshold and reset Boston’s tax penalties entirely, given the number of needs on the roster.

Obligatory reminder: the luxury tax is not an exorbitantly punitive sum.  Exceeding the top level of the luxury tax in 2018 cost the Red Sox roughly $11.95MM (and a ten-slot drop in their 2019 draft order), and their 2019 tax penalty will be in the neighborhood of $13.05MM, as per Ronald Blum of the Associated Press, with no change to their draft position.  Every organization has a budget, and it’s understandable that Red Sox ownership is less willing to pay tax penalties for an 84-win team than it was for a World Series champion, but there isn’t any concrete reason why Boston (or any big-market team) should be treating the CBT as an actual salary cap.  There is surely no small amount of annoyance within the MLBPA and the player agent community that another large-market franchise is seemingly more focused on trimming payroll instead of spending.

It’s also worth noting that Boston’s payroll situation would be a lot clearer if ownership hadn’t given Dombrowski the green light to re-sign Nathan Eovaldi in free agency last winter or to give Chris Sale a five-year extension that begins in 2020.  Those two contracts, plus the $96MM still owed to David Price, now all loom large as question marks after all three pitchers battled injuries last season.  Some level of a rebound is certainly possible, but it’s unlikely that all three will be healthy and pitch up to peak standards next year, leaving the Red Sox without much flexibility for rotation upgrades.  Eduardo Rodriguez has a checkered injury history of his own, but the southpaw was a bright spot last season, posting a 3.81 ERA over a career-high 203 1/3 innings.

For the remaining rotation spot, the Sox could look to sign any number of low-cost veterans, and maybe even reunite with Rick Porcello.  Or, since the Red Sox already began using openers last season, the club could instead deploy a full-time opener/bulk pitcher combo in the fifth starter position rather than a proper starting pitcher.  Given that Bloom was one of the architects of the opener strategy in Tampa Bay, this might be a more likely (and cost-effective) route for the Sox to take rather than spend a few extra million on an innings-eating starter.  It might not even be out of the question for the team to explore putting an opener in front of Eovaldi, if injuries continue to be a factor.

A deep bullpen is a necessity for a team using an opener, and the relief corps is another area of need.  Brandon Workman’s role will be of interest, as the veteran righty emerged as Boston’s closer down the stretch and posted an impressive 1.88 ERA and 13.1 K/9 over 71 2/3 innings.  There was some volatility in those numbers, as Workman (like virtually every Sox reliever in 2019) had control issues (5.7 BB/9).

The Red Sox could prefer to use Workman in a setup role rather than as a closer, or at least acquire another arm who has ninth-inning experience as depth to work behind Workman.  Sergio Romo is a known quantity to Bloom from his time in Tampa, and Romo would also come at a much lower price than other top relievers on the market; a play for Will Smith seems out of the question, and Boston’s spending concerns could possibly even keep them out of the Will Harris/Drew Pomeranz tier.  Names like Chris Martin, Craig Stammen, or Daniel Hudson could all be considered, as could a pursuit of a bounce-back candidate Dellin Betances.

Turning to position players, one of the team’s biggest offseason questions has already been answered, as J.D. Martinez decided not to opt out of the remaining three years of his contract.  An opt-out would’ve taken $22MM in average annual salary off of Boston’s books and given them more tax breathing room, though it would’ve come at the cost of one of the game’s best sluggers.

Instead, Martinez will now rejoin Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Rafael Devers in one of the sport’s most fearsome lineup quartets.  Catcher Christian Vazquez enjoyed the best hitting season of his career, though the Sox will be looking for more from Andrew Benintendi in 2020 after the outfielder scuffled through a down year.

With Mitch Moreland and Brock Holt headed for free agency, and Dustin Pedroia’s playing future still unclear, both first base and second base are up for grabs.  Michael Chavis had a solid rookie year and is a candidate for regular playing time at either position.  Top prospect Bobby Dalbec could work his way into the first base conversation as early as next season.  A left-handed bat would be the ideal complement to the right-handed hitting Chavis and Dalbec, and for both bat-sided and versatility reasons, re-signing Holt (or a Holt type like Eric Sogard) would make a lot of sense.  Bringing Moreland back is also possible if the Red Sox are comfortable with Chavis as a second baseman, but the team will have plenty of options to consider on the crowded first base/DH market.

The Red Sox have already cut down on their projected arbitration costs by parting ways with Steven Wright, Gorkys Hernandez, and Chris Owings, while also adding lefty Josh Osich to the list after claiming him from the White Sox.  That results in a projected savings of $4.5MM, and a bit more money could be saved if the Sox non-tendered Sandy Leon or Marco Hernandez.  As much as the Sox prize Leon’s defense and game-calling abilities, they could see $2.8MM as a high price for a player with no offensive value.

As generally strong as this position player mix looks, there has been a great deal of speculation about whether all of the key players will be back in 2020.  Injuries and contracts make Price, Sale, and Eovaldi difficult to trade — to varying extents.  Unless the Sox take another unfavorable contract back in return, pay down some of the remaining salary and/or attach young talent from their already-thin minor league system to entice a rival team to absorb one of these salaries, they’ll have a difficult time finding a taker.  Therefore, the easiest route to creating payroll space would be to trade a high-salaried position player.

Bogaerts clearly isn’t going anywhere, and Martinez will be able to modify his three-team no-trade list later this month, per MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo (Twitter link).  Given the lack of win-now teams with a DH opening, that list can be tailored to the current market, thus making a Martinez trade difficult for Boston.  That leaves Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. as the likeliest candidates to be dealt.  Bradley is projected for an $11MM salary in his final year of arbitration eligibility — a hefty number for a player who has had below-average offensive production for the last three seasons and (of greater concern) also had a drop-off with the glove in 2019, according to the UZR/150 (-1.8) and Defensive Runs Saved (-1).

The Red Sox don’t plan to non-tender Bradley, as they’ll explore trade possibilities in an offseason that doesn’t feature much in the way of interesting free-agent center fielders.  Moving Bradley for a starter, reliever, first baseman, or second baseman would be a canny way of addressing a need if not necessarily saving on payroll, though any number of multi-player arrangements could be explored.  In terms of replacing Bradley, Betts or Benintendi could be moved into center field, with the Sox then acquiring a lower-cost corner outfielder.

And then there’s the possibility of a Betts trade, which would be much more of a game-changer.  Betts is only under contract for one more season, and he has been open about his interest in reaching the free agent market rather than signing an extension with the Red Sox (though he has said he enjoys playing in Boston).  With Martinez and his salary back in the fold, it could increase the chances of Betts being dealt, as painful as it would be to unload one of the game’s best players.

To land Betts, a team would have to be willing to give up a noteworthy combination of big league-ready young talent and prospects for just one season of Betts’ services, and also be capable of absorbing his $27.7MM in projected salary.  In exploring the Betts trade market last month, I listed the Phillies, Reds, Mets, and Padres as perhaps the best candidates since all four teams are aggressively planning to contend in 2020, though it’s possible more clubs could enter the mix depending on how other offseason business plays out.

The Rays swung several creative trades during Bloom’s tenure, so any number of multi-team possibilities could be explored to create a Betts deal that would most benefit the Sox from both a financial and player return standpoint.  One would imagine, however, that Bloom will look into myriad cost-cutting measures before getting around to the Plan C or Plan D that would be a Betts trade.  Kennedy’s comments suggest that the Red Sox could settle for just getting into the lowest tier (spending between $208MM-$228MM) of luxury tax penalties, if avoiding the tax entirely will severely hamper the team’s chances of competing in 2020.

Ownership has made it clear that winning is still the priority, so the Red Sox will try to emulate the Dodgers (led by Andrew Friedman, Bloom’s old boss in Tampa Bay) in escaping luxury tax purgatory while still reaching the postseason on an annual basis.  It will be a tall order, though with all the talent already on the roster, the Sox could only be a few moves — albeit perhaps large moves — away from another playoff berth.

Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Seattle Mariners burst onto the scene in 2019, providing us with a valuable reminder about the importance of sample size as they jumped out to a 13-2 start. Those early wins would amount to nearly 20 percent of their total for the year. They went on to play just .374 baseball the rest of the way en route to a 68-94 last place finish, thereby extending their postseason drought streak to an 18th consecutive season (the longest active such streak in North American professional sports). Now that the Nationals won it all in October, the Mariners also hold the ignominious distinction of being the only team in the majors without a single World Series appearance.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Kyle Seager, 3B: $38MM through 2021, $15MM club option in 2022 (becomes player option if Seager is traded)
  • Yusei Kikuchi, SP: $32MM through 2021, if 4-year/$66MM club option for 2022 to 2025 is declined, it turns into a $13MM player option for 2022
  • Dee Gordon, 2B: $13.8MM in 2020, $14MM vesting option in 2021

Arbitration-Eligible Players (salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Wade LeBlanc, SP: $5MM club option, declined for $450K buyout

Free Agents

To get a sense of the Mariners 2019 season, consider this: their leader in games played was a designated hitter with a .208 batting average. Or this: where baseball-reference lists their pitching staff, just four starting pitchers populate, one of whom spent the final two months on the Diamondbacks. Or try this: Edwin Encarnacion finished third on the team among position players in bWAR, and he played his last game as a Mariner on June 12. Put another way, the Mariners lost 94 games in 2019 as they entered year one of a self-described “reimagining.”

Executive VP and GM Jerry Dipoto has been hard at work outlining clear guidelines to prepare the Seattle fanbase for another development year in 2020. It’s a rebuild, no doubt, but Dipoto has done a nice job of claiming some high-ceiling youngsters to keep an entertaining product on the field. They’re not quite “reclamation projects” because these players have yet to establish themselves in the majors, but recent acquisitions like Shed Long, Justus Sheffield, Jake Fraley, and J.P. Crawford have been in the conversation as prospects for some time and are now getting a fresh look in Seattle. These “reclamation prospects,” let’s call them, give the fanbase something to root for even as the losses pile up. It would not be surprising in the least to see Trader Jerry target more of these types of projects for 2020.

In terms of their own prospects, the time to shine is nigh for the likes of Justin Dunn, Kyle Lewis, Braden Bishop, and Evan White. Lewis got the biggest head start in 2019 by muscling up for a .592 slugging percentage in 71 at-bats as a September call-up. White probably has the highest ceiling, though he’s furthest away and there should be no rush to start the service clock of their 23-year-old first baseman. If this crew with the others above are able to successfully establish a base of major league talent, the Mariners will be in a good place to augment as their best prospects (Jarred Kelenic, Julio Rodriguez, Logan Gilbert) approach promotion in a year or two.

Whether that group has a high enough ceiling to challenge the juggernaut Astros and competitive A’s isn’t totally clear. Hence, the second year of this rebuild provides an important window for the Mariners to add more talent. They shipped out most of their marketable vets in last year’s purge, but a few pieces remain that could conceivably move for prospects. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times quotes Dipoto predicting a calmer trade season, but a tiger can’t change its stripes, and with 29 enabling GMs out there ready to deal, take Dipoto’s claim with a grain of salt for now. That said, the offense looks pretty close to set, with Kyle Seager, Crawford, Dee Gordon, and Austin Nola going around the horn and Domingo Santana, Mallex Smith, and Mitch Haniger penciled into the outfield. Omar Narvaez and Tom Murphy make up the catching tandem, and probably the most secure unit on the roster. To Dipoto’s point, that lineup doesn’t boast a cavalcade of gems opposing GMs will trip over each other to come claim, but they do have a sort of logjam with Tim Beckham, Dylan Moore, Shed Long, Lewis, Fraley, and Bishop all ready for larger shares of playing time asap. Dipoto will listen to offers, no doubt, but it might take until mid-season to find takers for his remaining vets.

With a good first half, the Mariners will no doubt try to move Santana. He’ll make around $4.4MM in 2020 and will be arbitration eligible for the final time in 2021, so he’s controllable but affordable. A 2019 line of .253/.329/.441 is pretty close to what you might expect from Santana, but he strikes out too much and is borderline unplayable in the field, which will grossly mitigate any potential prospect return. Same for Daniel Vogelbach, who struggled in the second half to the point that the team plans to play him more or less exclusively at DH. Gordon has the name recognition to pop up in trade rumors but not the track record of recent productivity to make him appealing. Seager put together a bounceback campaign, hitting .239/.321/.468, but as the longest-tenured Mariner, he’s also a fine candidate to serve as a veteran bridge to the next competitive group. Besides, he’s still likely too expensive to move (especially since his 2022 option becomes guaranteed with a trade).

On the more plausible side, a healthy Mitch Haniger could fetch a decent return, as could any number of bullpen arms that develop over the first half of the season. Roenis Elias and Hunter Strickland helped replenish the pool in that way last trade deadline, and they should probably be open to moving anyone who steps up in the first half this year, including controllable assets like Taylor Guilbeau, whom they received from Washington in the Elias/Strickland deal. Austin Adams is another Washington castoff who could become a valuable trade chip once he is healthy, as might Sam Tuivailala, Matt Magill, or any number of slush pile free agents they add to the mix prior to Spring Training. Dipoto took full advantage of the bullpen carousel last season, and it’s a safe bet to expect him to do so again.

Keon Broxton was a mid-season slush-pile find from last season, but with no offense to speak of, the defensive standout was outrighted at the starting bell of the offseason. Like Broxton, Ryon Healy chose free agency after a disappointing two-year run in Seattle. Dipoto sent Emilio Pagan to Oakland to acquire Healy, a disappointing move in retrospect as the first baseman hit just .236/.280/.423 across 711 plate appearances in two seasons in Seattle.

Speaking of free agency, the Mariners do have some money to spend, and Dipoto will look to add flippable assets, probably in the form of starters on one-year deals. Tanner Roark, Alex Wood, Wade Miley, Drew Smyly, Martin Perez and Tyson Ross might be free agent targets. Depending on the shape of the market, Michael Wacha, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Lyles and Kendall Graveman could also be names worth exploring. Speculatively speaking, Julio Teheran, who had his option declined by the Braves, could be a name they monitor depending on the price point. There’s anywhere from one to three rotation spots up for grabs in Seattle, depending on how aggressive they want to be with getting Sheffield and Dunn time on the major league roster. In a perfect world, Kikuchi pitches better in his second season stateside while Sheffield and Dunn make themselves indispensable pieces of the 2021 rotation — but there’s probably at least one rotation spot available for a veteran looking to establish value.

Marco Gonzales is the big potential trade chip they have yet to cash in, but every indication points to him being a foundational piece over trade fodder. After pitching to a 3.99 ERA/3.83 FIP across 369 2/3 innings over the last two seasons, the soon-to-be 28-year-old enters 2020 as easily the most reliable member of the pitching staff. If indeed Dipoto hopes to re-enter the competitive fray in 2021, Gonzales provides more value pitching for the Mariners than as trade bait. And given that he is under team control for an additional three seasons after 2020, there’s no real urgency to move him. Especially not after the good faith two-year deal they gave Gonzales as a pre-arb player undoubtedly laid the groundwork for productive negotiations in the future.

Still, the Mariners have almost no money on the books following this season, and given Dipoto’s itchy trigger finger, there’s no ruling out acquiring a player with more than one season of team control. There’s no ruling out anything, really, when it comes to Dipoto. The Mariners are in a great place financially, and Lord knows Dipoto will eventually explore the trade market. For at least the next calendar year, the Mariners have only one priority: add talent to the organization by whatever means necessary so that come 2021, as promised, the framework for a contender is in place.

Offseason Outlook: New York Yankees

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The 2019 season didn’t end in ideal fashion for the Yankees, but there is no debating that they posted one of the most impressive years of any team in baseball. A litany of major injuries threatened to torpedo their campaign from Day 1, but the club seldom faltered in the face of that overwhelming adversity. Instead, the Yankees plugged in one surprisingly effective cog after another en route to 103 victories – the third-highest total in the game – and their first AL East title since 2012. The Yankees once again made easy work of the Twins in the ALDS, but just as New York has toyed with Minnesota in October, Houston has done the same to the Bronx Bombers. The Astros eliminated the Yankees for the third time since 2015, cutting them down in a six-game ALCS. Now, general manager Brian Cashman has to continue trying to figure out how to get his team over the Houston hump and back atop the sport.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Free Agents

The offseason is only in its infancy, but Cashman has already gotten a couple key orders of business out of the way. For one, there won’t be any question as to who will be closing games for the Yankees in 2020. The Yankees were facing the departure of star closer Aroldis Chapman, who had a chance to opt out of the last two years and $30MM left on his contract, but the two sides prevented that from happening last weekend. New York added a third year and $18MM to Chapman’s deal, giving him a pact worth $48MM over three seasons. It’s a reasonable deal for the Yankees, as Chapman – despite the series-losing home run he allowed to Houston – remains one of the majors’ premier relievers. Considering Chapman’s lengthy track record of excellence, it wouldn’t have been a surprise to see him break Wade Davis’ average annual value record for a reliever ($17.33MM per annum) had he gotten to free agency, but the Yankees managed to retain their game-ending southpaw for less.

Turning to the position player side, Cashman had noteworthy calls to make at shortstop and at designated hitter/first base the past few days. And he may have opted to say goodbye to two of the Yankees’ most recognizable players in shortstop Didi Gregorius and slugger Edwin Encarnacion. Gregorius is a revered Yankee who was one of the league’s elite shortstops from 2017-18, but he fell flat this year after sitting out the first few months while recovering from Tommy John surgery. As a result of the underwhelming production Gregorius mustered, the Yankees decided not to issue him a $17.8MM qualifying offer. He’s now on the open market without draft compensation weighing him down.

Whether to qualify Gregorius looked like the type of decision that could have gone either way, whereas it’s no surprise the Yankees pulled the plug on Encarnacion’s $20MM option in favor of a $5MM buyout. Encarnacion remains a serious home run threat and a formidable offensive player, but for a soon-to-be 37-year-old with no real defensive value, his option was unpalatable.

Now that Gregorius and Encarnacion aren’t on the Yankees’ roster anymore, it’s fair to wonder what the team will do to replace them. It’s entirely possible they’ll re-up either or both if their markets don’t materialize as hoped. But if not, the Yankees are seemingly in the luxurious position of having ready-made replacements on hand. They could slide budding star second baseman Gleyber Torres to short to replace Gregorius, thus leaving the keystone to versatile infielder DJ LeMahieu. Alternatively, if the Yankees want to make their latest enormous offseason splash on the trade market, they could at least inquire on the Indians’ Francisco Lindor or the Rockies’ Trevor Story. Finding a way to trade for either, albeit at would surely be a sizable cost in assets, would enable the Yankees to keep Torres at second and continue to move LeMahieu around the infield.

The Yankees may need LeMahieu at first and/or third, as there’s an argument their options there aren’t incredibly trustworthy. Third baseman Gio Urshela had an out-of-nowhere breakout season in 2019, but is it sustainable? And the player he replaced, Miguel Andujar, missed almost the entire season with a shoulder injury and wasn’t exactly a source of defensive brilliance as a rookie the previous year. The Yankees may be able to live with Andujar’s defensive shortcomings if he regains form at the plate, especially if they can rotate him in at DH on occasion, but who’s to say he’ll be the same hitter in 2020?

At first base, the Yankees have a pair of sluggers – Luke Voit and Mike Ford – who look capable of holding down the fort (that’s assuming the Yanks abandon their long-running dreams of a Greg Bird breakout and don’t make any other moves like bringing back Encarnacion). Voit’s coming off an injury-wrecked season in which he tailed off badly toward the end, though, and the 27-year-old Ford has just 163 major league plate appearances to his name. LeMahieu would continue to make for nice insurance at both corners, then, though how often he lines up there could depend on whether there’s a Gregorius re-signing or a different middle infield acquisition.

Are there any other splashy scenarios in which the Yankees could give their infield a boost? Sure, they could sign Anthony Rendon to play third base for $200MM-plus or maybe even Josh Donaldson for something in the vicinity of $60MM-$80MM. But if the Yankees, who are always mindful of the luxury tax, are going to spend an exorbitant amount on a free agent, it seems more likely to be a pitcher than a position player.

Meantime, it wouldn’t be remotely surprising to see the Yankees re-sign outfielder Brett Gardner, their longest-tenured player, to what should be another relatively affordable short-term contract. The 36-year-old stuck around on a $7.5MM guarantee last offseason and then proceeded to record one of the most productive seasons of his career. Gardner also showed he’s still capable of manning center, which is hugely important for a New York team whose starter, Aaron Hicks, recently underwent Tommy John surgery. With Hicks set to miss a large portion of 2019, the Yankees need a viable center fielder to slot in alongside corner options Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Tauchman, Clint Frazier and, if he re-signs, Cameron Maybin. Free agency’s not teeming with appealing possibilities, though, and trading for Pittsburgh’s Starling Marte may not make sense with Hicks due back in several months and under team control for the long haul. With that in mind, it seems realistic to expect Gardner back in the Bronx in 2020.

Let’s shift to catcher, where Gary Sanchez is coming off another year in which he drew fan and media ire for his strikeout tendencies at the plate and his defensive troubles behind it. Could the Yankees now try to deal Sanchez and look for an upgrade? Possibly. But where would they get this upgrade? Sanchez is hands down a better choice than every free agent but Yasmani Grandal, who’s four years older and looks likely to command a guarantee worth more than $60MM. And unlike last offseason, there’s no J.T. Realmuto on the trade market. What does that mean? Expect Sanchez back in pinstripes next year, possibly with Kyle Higashioka as a backup to replace free agent Austin Romine.

And now we arrive at the pitching staff, a source of frustration for Yankees fans in 2019. The Yankees had to go through almost the entire year without their ace, Luis Severino, whose shoulder and lat injuries held him to 12 regular-season innings. The good news is that he should be ready to lead their starting staff again in 2020, while James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka will continue to provide a pair of nice complements. But what about the rest of the rotation? There’s no more CC Sabathia, who called it a (Hall of Fame?) career. Meanwhile, unless they swap him for another bad contract, the Yankees are probably stuck with the aging J.A. Happ for the last season of a two-year, $34MM pact. There’s a chance they may never get another pitch from 2019 standout Domingo German, whose season ended in September when he landed on administrative leave under the MLB-MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence Policy. Deivi Garcia’s the organization’s No. 1 prospect, though he’s still just 20 and has thrown a mere 40 innings at the Triple-A level (where he posted a 5.40 ERA/5.77 FIP this year). Jordan Montgomery (a 2018 Tommy John patient) and Jonathan Loaisiga could be wild cards, but the Yankees might be pressing their luck by locking either of them into rotation jobs.

Frankly, if the Yankees want to go into Evil Empire mode and try to steal a high-priced free agent from the rest of the league, the rotation seems like the place for it. There happen to be a couple aces on the table in Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, but whether the Yankees would crush the $200MM mark for the former and go well above $150MM for the latter is in question. While it’s well-documented that the Yankees have coveted Cole in the past, it’s worth noting they haven’t reeled in a free agent for anything close to the type of money he’s about to receive since they re-signed Alex Rodriguez to a $275MM deal entering 2008. George Steinbrenner was still alive at that point. That doesn’t mean today’s Hal Steinbrenner-run Yankees won’t sign Cole, Strasburg or at least someone like Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner or Hyun-Jin Ryu, but it would be difficult to call the Yankees favorites in any of those cases.

It may be easier to envision a trade for a starter coming together, considering Cashman has swung deals for the likes of Paxton, Happ, Sonny Gray and Lance Lynn over the past couple years. Would he do it again, this time for someone like Corey Kluber or Matthew Boyd? It’s doubtful anyone but a Cole or a Strasburg would suffice for a high number of Yankees fans, but with Severino back at full strength, there’s a case the team doesn’t have to pick up a true front-line type before next season.

Regardless of how the Yankees fill out the rest of their rotation before next year, the offseason heavy lifting in their bullpen already appears to be done with Chapman staying in the mix. The Yankees doled out a combined $66MM in guarantees to Zack Britton and Adam Ottavino in free agency last winter. For the most part, those signings have worked out well so far. Those two will be back, while Chapman, Tommy Kahnle, Chad Green (if he doesn’t fill an opener role next season), Luis Cessa and Loaisiga are among holdovers who could or will join them.

At this point, the main concern centering on New York’s bullpen is whether its relationship with longtime force Dellin Betances is over. The Yankees showed they could succeed in 2019 without the four-time All-Star, whom shoulder problems stopped from making his season debut until Sept. 15. Betances retired both batters he faced that day in Toronto, but he suffered a partial left Achilles tear while hopping off the mound at the end of the inning. That brought a quick and cruel close to a Murphy’s Law season for Betances, and it was especially inopportune during a contract year. However, the injury’s not so severe that it will hinder the soon-to-be 32-year-old from faring somewhat nicely on the open market. MLBTR has Betances in line for a $7MM guarantee, and with the tax-minded Yankees paying close attention to every penny nowadays, they may deem that too expensive for a reliever coming off a lost season.

As always, the Yankees will be one of the game’s most fascinating teams to watch this offseason. Are they a sleeping giant that could swoop in for Lindor, Cole or maybe even both? Perhaps. On the other hand, the Yankees are talented enough that they could mostly stand pat in the coming months and enter 2020 in better shape than just about everyone else. The avenue they take will depend on how much much Steinbrenner’s willing to spend on a roster that exceeded the luxury tax this year and already looks as if it’s on pace to breeze past the $208MM threshold for next season. Unless Steinbrenner’s OK with outspending the second penalty bracket ($228MM) or even the third ($248MM), this might not be a particularly eventful winter in the Bronx.

Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Brewers lost MVP candidate Christian Yelich to a knee fracture in early September but nevertheless rode a torrid hot streak to an NL Wild Card berth. The Milwaukee Magic ran out earlier this season than last, however, as the Brewers couldn’t overcome the Nationals in that one-game showdown. It’ll be back to the drawing board again for president of baseball ops David Stearns and his staff, who’ll enter the offseason with question marks behind the plate, in the infield and on the pitching staff.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Lorenzo Cain, OF: $51MM through 2022
  • Christian Yelich, OF: $27.75MM through 2021 (includes buyout of 2022 club option)
  • Ryan Braun, OF: $20MM through 2020 (includes buyout of 2021 mutual option)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Yasmani Grandal, C: Grandal declined $16MM mutual option, becoming a free agent (received $2.5MM buyout)
  • Mike Moustakas, 3B/2B: Moustakas declined $11MM mutual option, becoming a free agent (received $3MM buyout)
  • Eric Thames, 1B/OF: Brewers declined $7.5MM club option (Thames received $1MM buyout)
  • Manny Pina, C: Brewers exercised $1.85MM option

Free Agents

For a team that just enjoyed its second postseason berth in two years, the Brewers have a surprising number of holes to fill. The rotation will be an obvious point of focus, but the lineup offers its share of uncertainty as well.

Both Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas declined mutual options, as expected, removing two of the team’s better bats from the equation. First base will also be a possible point of focus after Milwaukee paid a $1MM buyout rather than exercising a $7.5MM option on slugger Eric Thames. Meanwhile, Travis Shaw struggled through the worst season of his career and isn’t a sure bet to be tendered a contract — let alone to be a major contributor in 2020. At shortstop, Orlando Arcia posted an anemic .223/.283/.350 batting line in 586 plate appearances.

In summary: the Brewers will be in the market for a catcher, at least one corner infielder and perhaps a shortstop. First base could be an area of need as well. That’s a lot of work to tackle even before looking at the pitching staff, so let’s begin with the lineup.

Grandal shocked onlookers, MLBTR included, when he spurned a reported four-year offer from the Mets last winter to sign a one-year pact with Milwaukee. After the agreement, Grandal spoke about the obligation he felt to prioritize a higher annual salary as a means of advancing the market for future catchers.

Perhaps that was a bit of PR spin or perhaps it was genuine; whatever it was, Grandal proved with a .246/.380/.468 batting line and his characteristic brand of strong defense that he should be Milwaukee’s priority this winter. There’s no doubt that retaining him would be expensive — particularly if Grandal’s preference is once again for a premium annual rate at the expense of length. But the Brewers would be within their means and within reason if they offered Grandal an annual salary in the $20MM range over a three-year term. If he’s willing to sign a four-year pact at a slightly lesser rate, that’d be well worth considering, too. As for the backup role, paying a net $1.7MM for Pina’s quality glove is perfectly sensible.

There’s also a strong argument in favor of re-signing Moustakas. It’s tough to pay Shaw a projected $4.7MM as a rebound candidate, but reallocating that money to a new pact for Moustakas would create needed stability in an infield mix where only breakout rookie Keston Hiura appears locked into a spot (second base). Despite a quality run that now includes four above-average seasons in five years, Moustakas simply hasn’t been valued all that highly in two trips to the open market. Retaining him on a two-year deal comparable to this season’s value would be a worthwhile avenue to explore.

Of course, offseason demand will dictate the price points for Grandal and Moustakas, and at a certain juncture the Brewers will be willing to move on. Should that happen, they’ll have a bevy of catching alternatives from which to choose, including a perhaps on-the-rise Travis d’Arnaud, a steady defender in Jason Castro and a quality veteran bat in Robinson Chirinos (among others). There are fewer reasonably priced free agents at the hot corner — Anthony Rendon is too lofty a target — but perhaps if Grandal spurns a robust three-year offer, the Brewers could look to the older-but-still-excellent Josh Donaldson in a similar price range.

Uncertainty at the infield corners notwithstanding, the biggest problem area in the infield is shortstop, where the aforementioned Arcia has yet to live up to the hype that surrounded him as a minor leaguer. Once ranked inside the game’s Top 10 overall prospects by both Baseball America and MLB.com, Arcia has mustered a miserable .243/.292/.360 batting line in nearly 1700 MLB plate appearances. The Brewers have entrusted primary shortstop duties to him for three straight seasons and come away with virtually nothing to show for it. If you’re looking for a clean fit for Didi Gregorius, Milwaukee is a good place to start.

Shifting focus to the pitching staff, it’s somewhat amazing that Milwaukee made it as far as it did with the staff in place. The Brewers, by Stearns’ own admission, “tend to blur the lines” between starters and relievers more than most clubs. You want see many Milwaukee starters even pitch six innings, but their success while relying on Chase Anderson, Zach Davies, Adrian Houser and IL returnees Brandon Woodruff, Brent Suter and Jimmy Nelson was remarkable. Both Nelson and Woodruff have high ceilings and have realized that potential for significant stretches of time, but both have battled recent injuries. Nelson missed most of 2019 while recovering from shoulder surgery, while a severe oblique strain sidelined Woodruff for two months.

That duo, if healthy, gives the Brewers a foundation for the starting staff in 2020. But Milwaukee has already moved on from Anderson, whom they didn’t trust for more than five innings at a time in 2019. With his $8.5MM option deemed more expensive than the organization was willing to spend, Anderson was flipped to the pitching-needy Blue Jays on the first day of the offseason. That move saved some money but also further thinned out the Brewers’ depth.

The Brewers may yet be hopeful that right-handers Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta can function as starters — or at least a multi-inning role of some sort — but the organization could still stand to bring in a source of stable innings. Similar arguments have been made in each of the past two offseasons, and the Brewers responded rather tepidly by adding Jhoulys Chacin, Wade Miley and Gio Gonzalez on low-risk deals. That history makes it hard to predict that the Brewers will step up in pursuit of any high-end starter, but they at least make sense for some reasonably priced upside plays. Jordan Lyles (again), Drew Smyly and Michael Wacha could fit the bill. Or, the Brewers could operate as they have most recently and wait to see who’s left without a seat at the end of this offseason’s game of musical chairs.

In the bullpen, the Brewers will likely be intrigued by any pitcher they believe capable of throwing more than an inning at a time. Drew Pomeranz morphed into a late-inning monster in Milwaukee and recorded four or more outs in nearly a third of his appearances down the stretch. Pomeranz’s unexpected dominance could make him a buzz reliever who generates multi-year interest, but if the Brewers plan to continue sticking to low-cost rotation options, spending more to retain a pitcher who looked like a potential high-end relief weapon would make sense.

Alternatively, Milwaukee wants to pursue some higher-end targets to pair with Josh Hader and a returning Corey Knebel next season, they could look into a Will Smith reunion or pursue Will Harris. This year’s market is generally lacking in top-flight setup options, though veterans like Joe Smith, Steve Cishek and Craig Stammen have generally solid track records. And, as always, the trade market will present limitless opportunities for Stearns & Co. to explore as they look to piece together what should once again be one of the game’s more unique assemblies of pitchers.

Depending on the moves the Brewers make on the position-player side of the coin, they’ll need that penchant for creative pitching staff construction to its fullest extent. Assuming some additional non-tenders (Shaw, Junior Guerra, and Tyler Saladino), the Brewers currently project to have about $73.5MM in 2020 commitments. That’s roughly $49MM shy of this year’s Opening Day mark, but the aforementioned needs at catcher, third base and shortstop could all be costly to fill — particularly if retaining Grandal is deemed a Lorenzo Cain-esque priority (that is to say — a relatively unique free agent worth deviating from the more value-based mindset with which the organization typically approaches the open market).

There’ll be a lot written about the Brewers’ need to add legitimate starting pitching help this winter, but that hasn’t been how this front office has operated. Milwaukee has persistently bucked conventional wisdom when putting together rosters that feature exceptional flexibility in the lineup, on the pitching staff and on the fringes of the 25-man roster itself. The addition of a 26th roster spot next season might allow other clubs to follow in those footsteps a bit, but Milwaukee’s knack for cultivating depth and leveraging versatility is among the best in the game.

The Brewers will need to employ that same creativity in the months to come as they look to reshape the infield and deepen their pitching staff in an effort to keep up with the division-champion Cardinals, the typically aggressive Cubs (last winter being a notable exception) and a Reds team that is more motivated to win than at any point in recent history.

Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Padres are tired of waiting to contend. But they face a tricky path to compiling a competitive roster in 2020.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Recently Removed From 40-Man Roster

Other Free Agents

[San Diego Padres depth chart | San Diego Padres payroll outlook]

It wouldn’t be terribly productive at this point to go into detail on the Padres’ recent struggles. The bottom line is that the team hasn’t cracked .500 since 2010, meaning that another losing season would make a full decade of futility. Chairman Ron Fowler is fed up. Manager Andy Green was canned. GM A.J. Preller’s seat is as hot as any executive in baseball.

The Friars kicked off their offseason by bringing in Jayce Tingler as skipper. He’s unproven, but plenty familiar to Preller from their time together with the Rangers. Preller spoke of his new manager’s “ability to develop talent and help players reach their potential at the Major League level.” Whether Tingler is the right man to drive progress remains to be seen.

Otherwise, Preller has been hard at work doing some 40-man bonsai pruning in advance of another winter full of tough Rule 5 decisions. The balancing act is especially fraught this time around given the clear mandate to win. It’s awfully difficult to carry armloads of intriguing but largely future-oriented players on the 40-man when you need to max out the 25-man roster. Ever-injured youngster Anderson Espinoza would be the poster boy here, but the Pads have a laundry list of others.

What’s most important to know about the situation for our purposes is: first, that the Padres have limited 40-man roster space to work with in adding players and, second, that the team has every reason to explore trades involving some of its marginal 40-man talent. Recall the club’s major summer move, in which Franmil Reyes and Logan Allen — MLB talents, both, but clearly not top priorities for the San Diego organization — were swapped out for a high-ceiling, near-majors youngster (Taylor Trammell) who doesn’t need to be protected until next winter.

That prospect capital will come in handy, but it remains to be seen how other organizations will view the long-heralded wave of talent that Preller has summoned. We don’t really even know how the organization views all of its young talent, as it’s still sifting through the margins of the 40-man in advance of the November 20th deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 draft. It stands to reason that Preller will look to deal some of the pieces he can’t protect rather than risking them in a year in which some teams will be emboldened to utilize their newly minted 26th roster spot to poach talent.

There’s one other reason to expect Preller to cut loose from a dealmaking perspective this winter: payroll constraints. The Padres have only once topped $100MM in Opening Day payroll, in Preller’s first full year on the job. Entering 2020, the club already has nearly reached nine figures in commitments, including the rest of what it owes Hector Olivera, before tabulating an arbitration class that could add another $20MM or so to the books. In other words, the Padres are already positioned to make a big move north in player expenditures, even before bringing in any new faces to the organization. Having added Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado in successive offseasons, after inking a long-term commitment to Wil Myers, this is a team that has by and large already taken most or all of its shots when it comes to top-of-the-market spending.

That’s a lot of background chatter before we get to looking at the actual roster pieces, but it’s necessary framing for the winter to come. Visions of hometown hero Stephen Strasburg are dancing in the heads not only of fans, but also of some within the Padres organization. There’s an obvious need on the roster and enormous marketing potential. But the organization will have to take a long, hard look at its balance sheets before it begins wooing Strasburg.

Adding that level of talent is sure to cost upwards of $25MM annually. But drop Strasburg on top of the rest of this roster, and you have an ace to lead a staff that’s suddenly dripping with upside. Strasburg, Chris Paddack, Dinelson Lamet, Garrett Richards, Joey Luchessi. There’s a blend of depth and upside in the other youthful starter candidates available, including Cal Quantrill, Nick Margevicius, Adrian Morejon, Michael Baez, and Ronald Bolanos. One or two of the overfill arms could be dealt; others could end up in the pen or at Triple-A. There are some injury and performance uncertainties here. But the summer trade market can help plug gaps. And who’s to say that premium prospects Mackenzie Gore and Luis Patino won’t force their way into the picture?

Trouble is, will that be enough? And is there room to add other pieces after ramping payroll into a whole new stratosphere? The Padres could get creative with shedding other obligations. The obvious target to move is Myers, who just hasn’t hit and doesn’t quite fit. It was never entirely clear why the team decided he was the right piece to fix on the roster, only then to make an investment in Hosmer that never seemed particularly likely to pay off on the field. But the die is cast. Now, the Friars can only seek to move as much of the Myers contract as possible. Surely some teams would have interest in a player with his established level of hitting ability, but his open-market value falls well shy of the $61MM he’s still owed. Getting another organization to take on cash would mean effectively selling some of that prized young talent that the Padres have been gathering in as much abundance as the tallies in the loss column.

Getting out from under some of the Myers money will be painful, but it is perhaps more plausible than some have suggested. Teams have managed such feats before. (Vernon Wells, anyone?) Otherwise, it isn’t as if it would be difficult to move on from several of the arbitration-eligible players. The Padres could cash in some pieces for far-away prospects, then re-commit some of the salary to shorter-term, presently better veterans in free agency or trades. Navigating that sort of approach will be tricky, to be sure, but it’s possible to imagine some creative moves that deliver an immediate performance boost without really adding much salary or even harming the future outlook. In some cases, the Padres might prefer the outlook of other, still-rising talent in 2021 and beyond.

The biggest single arb hit comes in the form of Yates, who has morphed into one of the game’s most dominant relievers. If there’s a truly interesting scenario that could allow the Padres to make monster additions, it might well involve the 32-year-old. It is hard to part with an exceptional late-inning pen piece when you want to contend, but this winter will be all about balancing priorities. Contenders would line up for Yates, whose $6.5MM salary would be a pittance to many other organizations. The Pads could put that cash to use elsewhere. And (much more) importantly, they could name their price, perhaps while also packaging other pieces in some kind of blockbuster arrangement. The San Diego contract asset mix screams three-team deal, particularly with Preller at the helm. Perhaps there’s a way he can land a Strasburg-level player by orchestrating a multi-faceted roster re-working that isn’t really even specifically foreseeable.

Or, perhaps, another major, concentrated expenditure isn’t the way to go. The Padres have a lot to lose in a blockbuster signing of an older starting pitcher. And they still have some obvious needs in other areas of the roster that might go largely unaddressed if they spend much of the winter and much of their available funding to lure Strasburg. What’s the alternative vision?

The desire to add a high-quality starter would still be present, of course. But it’d have to be a player that doesn’t check all the boxes. The Padres could be a part of the bidding war we forsee for Zack Wheeler, take an injury risk with Hyun-jin Ryu, or perhaps even bring in Madison Bumgarner to lead the staff. Those players will all still cost big money. Working out a trade makes better sense for the pocketbook, but figures to be complicated. Robbie Ray (pure rental), Matthew Boyd (multiple arb years), and Caleb Smith (still pre-arb) could perhaps be had. These lefties possess intriguing, strikeout-driven ceilings but are hardly surefire top-of-the-rotation fixtures. Ditto Corey Kluber, who isn’t cheap and is coming off of an injury-wrecked season. Prying loose Jon Gray or German Marquez from the Rockies might hold appeal, but it’ll be tough to structure a trade with the division rivals unless it helps alleviate their payroll woes and delivers real talent back to Colorado. Unless a surprise hurler comes available, it doesn’t appear as if there’ll be much star power to be had via trade.

A more modest approach to the rotation won’t fully satisfy in that arena, but would leave more organizational resources to work with in boosting a tepid offensive unit. The left side of the infield is in excellent shape with Machado and young centerpiece Fernando Tatis, who’ll hopefully return with his customary vigor after an unfortunate injury. There isn’t much the Padres can do at first base but hope that Hosmer somehow breaks out of his moribund performance to date.

Otherwise? Not much is locked down. It’s a similar story in most every other area of the position-player mix: the Padres have dabbled with several players, in some cases for multiple seasons, but still can’t really be sure whether they have a key piece or a middling performer that needs to be replaced. There’s an argument in each situation to stick with the internal piece or to dump that player in favor of an upgrade.

Let’s start with the outfield group, which no longer includes Franmil Reyes and Travis Jankowski but does still have plenty of other players who have intrigued, disappointed, grown, and/or stalled at various points in time, but not yet fully established themselves as steady MLB regulars. That’s especially true of Myers, who’ll have to fit somewhere in the corner unit if he isn’t dealt. Hunter Renfroe has power for days and even graded quite well with the glove last year, but his on-base skills remain highly questionable and he wasn’t even quite a league-average hitter in 2019. Manuel Margot is the top option in center but has never shown he can hit right-handed pitching. Josh Naylor has an interesting lefty bat, even after a tepid MLB debut, but he’s a work in progress in the field. It’d be fun to see what Franchy Cordero can do, but the left-handed hitter hasn’t stayed healthy. Edward Olivares? Your guess is as good as mine. That covers the existing 40-man options. There’s also Trammell, who’ll be given more time to grow at Triple-A, and a group of players that are candidates for 40-man roster space (and Rule 5 protection): Buddy Reed, Jorge Ona, Michael Gettys. The tools are intriguing, but it’d be a huge reach to assume that any of these players will be ready for a significant contribution in a must-win season.

Despite the abundance of internal possibilities, MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell has stated that he believes the Pads could add two new outfield pieces to the roster. It’s not hard to see why, as this organization can’t just rotate through players to see what sticks if it really wants to ensure contention. Viewed through this lens, you can see why we picked the Pads to land on Corey Dickerson in free agency. While we named the San Diego organization as a viable landing spot for a number of top-fifty free agents, the reliable left-handed hitter is the only player we predicted them to secure. That’s a reflection of both the fact that the Padres will need to do a lot of work on the trade market and the team’s clear need for a trusty bat. Much as the team may wonder if Nick Martini could provide something similar at a fraction of the cost, he didn’t manage a single home run in 96 plate appearances last year with the Padres. Dickerson has a history of injury woes, but there’s depth on hand if a need arises and the team would do well to secure the services of such a potentially cost-efficient, high-quality hitter.

It would certainly be preferable for the Padres to add a regular center fielder, perhaps bumping Margot into a reserve role (if not out of the picture altogether). But pickings are slim, especially in free agency. The trade market features Starling Marte, first and foremost, though there are a few other potential targets. Jackie Bradley Jr. stands out as a rental possibility. Perhaps the Rays would discuss Kevin Kiermaier. There are some other names that are more of the bounceback/platoon variety. No doubt Preller and co. are familiar with Japanese star Shogo Akiyama; he’d be a sensible target if the club’s scouts think he can hit in the bigs.

In the infield, there are still questions as well — though perhaps more in the way of existing solutions. The Pads have dabbled with changing things up behind the dish, though a Francisco Mejia-Austin Hedges tandem still seems like a solid enough choice. If the team is ready to move on from Hedges, it could seek to cash him in and replace him with a low-cost veteran. Or the club could just rely on Luis Torrens and Austin Allen to fill things out behind the dish, with a non-roster veteran or two brought into camp to compete, mentor, and add depth.

At second base, 22-year-old Luis Urias has probably shown enough in the upper minors to warrant a further MLB trial, even if his first 302 plate appearances at the game’s highest level haven’t gone as hoped. The club has Ian Kinsler under contract for a veteran infield piece, though he’s coming off of a tough year, with Greg Garcia, Ty France, and others available as well. You can certainly advocate for a change at second base, particularly with a market flooded with options, though it’d likely only make sense to add here if the team intends to utilize Urias as a trade piece.

That leaves the bullpen. As noted already, there is some potential for spillover arms to function in a relief capacity. And Preller has shown an affinity for finding real treasure in unusual places, though for every Yates and Brad Hand there has been a Bryan Mitchell or an Aaron Loup (among others) that just hasn’t worked out. Still, you’d hate to rely too much on getting more for less when it comes to securing winnable games. There’s little question the Padres will need to capitalize on every opportunity if they’re to stay in the hunt for a Wild Card in a National League that’s full of contending outfits.

Thing is, the relief unit — even beyond Yates — was a pretty good group in 2019. As a whole, it rated tops in all of baseball by measure of SIERA and second in terms of xFIP. Yates had a big role in that, without question, but he couldn’t do it alone. The club will need to replace the solid innings from the departing Craig Stammen and Robbie Erlin, but it can add back a sturdy veteran without breaking the bank while also trusting that the bevy of internal possibilities — led by Matt Strahm, Trey Wingenter, Andres Munoz, and Luis Perdomo but featuring quite a few others with intriguing cases — can continue to improve. Trading away Yates will only make sense if there’s a truly compelling return, but it would also open opportunities. No shortage of free agent relievers would love a shot at throwing high-leverage innings in a relatively low-stress, low-run-scoring environment. (They say the weather is pleasant in San Diego, also.)

There’s still a lot to like about the volume of talent in the San Diego organization. But Preller needs to show that he can make that into a major-league winner — and fast. Anything shy of an exciting campaign that ends at or above .500 would be a marked disappointment, and could lead to a front office change. It’ll be fun to see this outfit tackle the challenge.

Offseason Outlook: Colorado Rockies

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Rockies endured one of the more disappointing seasons of their 27-year history in 2019. It may seem hard to remember now, but just a season ago, the 91-win Rockies came within one game of derailing the Dodgers’ now-seven-year run of dominance in the NL West. This season, they floated around .500 for much of the first half before face-planting hard in July and August. Despite scoring 55 more runs overall, the 2019 Rockies finished with an inverse record of the year prior at 71-91, 35 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Nolan Arenado, 3B: $234MM through 2024 (opt-out after 2021)
  • Charlie Blackmon, RF: $43MM through 2021 ($21MM player option for 2022, $10MM player option for 2023)
  • Wade Davis, RP: $17MM in 2020 ($15MM mutual option for 2021 with $1MM buyout, becomes player option with 30 games finished in 2020)
  • Ian Desmond, 1B/OF: $23MM through 2021 ($15MM club option in 2022 with $2MM buyout)
  • Daniel Murphy, 1B: $8MM in 2020 ($12MM mutual option in 2021, $6MM buyout)
  • Bryan Shaw, RP:$9MM in 2020 ($9MM club option in 2021 with $2MM buyout)
  • Jake McGee, RP: $9.5MM in 2020 ($9MM club option in 2021 with $2MM buyout)
  • German Marquez, SP:$38MM through 2023 ($16MM club option for 2024, $2.5MM buyout)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

This team is equipped with high-end, in-their-prime talent on offense, stunning regressions to reckon with in the rotation, and an overpaid bullpen still one season from financial freedom. The likeliest route to flipping the script (again) and returning to playoff form – and this won’t be fun to hear – is probably internal improvement. On that front, Bud Black and company have more questions than answers.

What’s worse, if you’ll pardon a mixed metaphor, the front office has their backs against the bottom line: per Cot’s Contracts, the Rockies ran out an Opening Day payroll of just over $145MM, a team record they’ve reset every season since 2014. Assume a $9MM jump to mirror their rise in payroll the past two offseasons, and a 2020 Opening Day payroll would land around $156MM. Unfortunately, even after the subtraction of Anderson and Bettis, Roster Resource projects their current payroll at around $159MM.

There’s just not much wiggle room in the numbers. The money owed either belongs to core members of the roster (Arenado, Story, Gray, Marquez) or unmovable veterans performing below or near replacement level (Davis, Shaw, McGee, Desmond). In another year, the commitment to those four drops from $50.5MM to $13MM, assuming Davis finishes fewer than 30 games (which shouldn’t be a problem after an 8.65 ERA in 50 outings this season).

Thinking creatively, maybe there’s an AL team out there in love with Charlie Blackmon. Despite manning right field for the Rockies, the numbers say Blackmon’s no longer a super-viable option for NL teams (he stepped down the defensive spectrum in 2019 but remained among the worst-rated defensive outfielders in the game with -9 Outs Above Average). Blackmon doesn’t steal bases anymore, though a 125 wRC+ pegs him as genuine asset at the dish – in good company with Bryce Harper, Gleyber Torres and Matt Chapman. Still, the total Blackmon package rounded down to just 2.0 fWAR in 2019 –  fine production for a regular position player, but shy of true All-Star status, unfortunately, given the All-Star money still coming his way ($64MM over the next three seasons, by the end of which he’ll be 36 years old). There aren’t many teams with a need at designated hitter, and with cheaper, shorter-term alternatives on the market like Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Abreu, Howie Kendrick, Avisail Garcia, among others, it seems likely Blackmon remains in Colorado for 2020.

The other fatty contract they could look to move belongs to Daniel Murphy. With just $14MM guaranteed remaining, it’s possible GM Jeff Bridich could find a taker, but it’s not the best time to sell on the soon-to-be 35-year-old. Even if someone takes the contract, after a less-than-inspiring .279/.328/.452 line, a trade won’t net much talent in return or provide enough relief to afford a difference maker in free agency. However, losing Murphy’s $8MM could be enough to grab a rotation arm on a one-year deal in the mold of Wade Miley.

They could instead explore moving Ryan McMahon, who filled out their infield quartet this season by taking on full-time responsibilities at second base. On the surface his .250/.329/.450 line with 24 home runs looks okay, but 88 wRC+ puts him 12 percent below league average without enough defensive fortitude to make up the difference. A near 30 percent strikeout rate more or less tells the tale for McMahon. Still, he and Murphy provide too much the same skillset to make their pairing on the right side a benefit, and if Bridich gets creative he might use the surplus to shuffle some pieces around.

A significant shakeup doesn’t seem possible without moving one of their core assets. It would not be easy to break up Arenado and Story, who make up, essentially, a perfect left side of the infield. They’re both plus-plus defenders and power hitters in their athletic prime who are beloved by the fan base. Arenado enjoys full no-trade protection, and the organization has shown little interest in trading Story. That said, with an estimated $11.5MM coming his way and another arbitration season to follow, it’s a logical time to move him. It won’t be fun, but a Story trade might be what’s best for the long-term health of the franchise.

Also a key part of this conversation is top prospect Brendan Rodgers, who struggled over two big league stints before a torn labrum ended his season in July. He’s not the defender at shortstop that Story is, but he can probably stick there if need be. If he becomes the full-time second baseman, that means bumping McMahon into a full-time utility role until Murphy’s contract runs out. That would make sense if the Rockies weren’t strapped for cash and in need of serious help on the pitching side. There’s definitely a trade to be made somewhere on the offensive end of the roster, but it’s doubtful any of the Rockies’ imperfect-fitting bats carry enough value to make much of a difference via trade. Story or David Dahl are exceptions, though  the organization seems intent on keeping them.

Speaking of Dahl, the Rockies plan to keep him in center next year, and though he’s passable up-the-middle, he’s not exactly a profit center out there from a defensive standpoint. Offensively, he’s produced as promised, despite being continually beset by ticky-tack injuries like the high ankle sprain that cost him the second half of 2019. As a .297/.346/.521 career hitter, he is no doubt an asset on that side of the ball, but he’s also a qualified Super Two facing an arbitration raise for the first time this season despite never putting together a full season.

Outside of a successful cup of coffee from Sam Hilliard and decent play from free agent castoff Yonder Alonso, the Rockies’ offense cratered after their core four (Arenado, Story, Blackmon and Dahl). Tony Wolters and Garrett Hampson have elite skills – defense and speed, respectively – but have yet to shore up the weaker parts of their games. Ian Desmond can line up at multiple outfield positions and first base, but his bat doesn’t play at of those spots. Raimel Tapia took a full turn in left field at age 25 and came up empty, as fWAR and bWAR agree that he was worth almost a full win below replacement (-0.9). That’s not a rousing cast of characters, but the core is strong enough that the Rockies should have no trouble augmenting with cheaper veterans taking the leftover at-bats in left and behind the plate. In a perfect world, one of those veterans could also be a backup plan to Dahl in center field (Michael A. Taylor of the Nationals could be a reasonable archetype).

The real scapegoat of the Rockies’ disappointing 2019, and where they should devote most if not all of their offseason attention, is pitching. The bullpen was bad in 2019, producing the second-highest FIP and second-lowest fWAR while commanding a serious chunk of the payroll. The inherent volatility of bullpen arms will allow the Rockies to trot out Davis, Shaw and McGee with at least an outside shot of returning some of their value, while Jairo Diaz, Scott Oberg, James Pazos and Carlos Estevez will do their best not to relinquish their squatters’ rights on the other bullpen spots. As much as the bullpen is in a less-than-ideal situation, the rotation needs the most work after a collective 5.87 ERA/5.31 FIP that ranked dead last in the NL.

It’s certainly unfair to heap an entire season’s worth of disappointment on a single player, but if we were to saddle just one man with the blame, Kyle Freeland would win the vote in a landslide. Jon Gray was last year’s demoted ace, but a redemptive campaign saw him reclaim ace-by-default status thanks to his year-over-year ERA shriveling from 5.12 in 2018 to 3.84 in 2019. Marquez is their third rotation asset, but his ERA rose to 4.76 as he stayed around the plate so often (4.9 BB%) opponents were able to barrel him up at an above-average rate (7.9%). Marquez and Gray will be counted on for mid-rotation production, at minimum, with a ceiling of a number one. The same could be said of Freeland, though with an even lower floor. That’s way too much baked-in variance for the top three of a rotation. If they produce somewhere between the 3.91 ERA they averaged in 2018 and the 5.11 ERA average of 2019, it’ll certainly help, but that alone won’t be enough to close the gap on the Dodgers.

Of the three, Gray is the most likely to be turned into a package of prospects, but the former No. 3 overall pick’s value is tough to pinpoint.  By FIP and exit velo, Gray’s 2018 and 2019 were almost identical campaigns. This season saw a slight dip in strikeout rate, a third consecutive year of a rising walk rate (from 6.5% to 7.0% to 8.8%), and a career-high hard hit percentage of 43.6 % that ranks in the bottom four percent of starters league-wide. On the plus side, he did put the ball on the ground more often and dramatically lowered opposing launch angles. In sum: Gray kept the ball down, but gave up harder contact, which doesn’t profile as significantly predictive for future seasons, even if the results this season make the improvement appear significant.

That said, Gray’s stuff is good enough that if the Rockies were to dangle him, there are sure to be teams out there confident in maximizing his potential. If Bridich and company don’t want to move someone like Story or Dahl, Gray would probably land the biggest return. The Rockies need arms to compete in a National League with most clubs in go-for-it mode, and if the Rox don’t believe in the crew that crashed and burned this season, the trade market might be the only solution.

It’s certainly tough to trust the incumbents. On the whole, the 2019 pitching staff performed much like Gray. Their 48.8% groundball rate was second in the majors. With Story and Arenado on the left side, groundballs should turn into outs more frequently than for your average MLB infield, so that’s a sound strategy. Unfortunately, when they weren’t burning worms, the basically put together a perfect cocktail for a “crooked number.” The Rockies’ 7.85 K/9 rate as a team was 15th in the NL, while their 3.66 BB/9 ranked as the NL’s second-highest figure. Plus, over 20 percent of fly balls that Colorado allowed turned into homers, which was worst in the majors. Not missing bats, giving up plenty of free passes, and yielding fly balls that leave the yard at uncommonly high rates is the recipe for big innings.

Organizationally, the Rockies are in a tough spot, and they’re going to have to get creative if indeed they want to compete. A Story trade would bring the largest injection of talent to the system, but given the organization’s fondness for him and Rodgers looking more like a future second baseman, an extension seems more likely. Still, they’ll need to explore all their options on the trade market.

The Rockies already lost a couple of players from their 2019 collection, with Sam Howard, Pat Valaika, and Tyler Anderson claimed on waivers. Chad Bettis was also outrighted and is likely to enter free agency along with Tim Melville. But the issues facing this team in the offseason run much deeper than the fringes of the roster. The outlook isn’t great after a 91-loss season, but Bridich has indicated a rebuild is not forthcoming. On one hand, that seems shortsighted. On the other, urgency is understandable when you consider 2019 marked the 27th consecutive season since their inception that the Rockies failed to capture a division title.

Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays

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The Rays won 96 games to return to the postseason in style, defeating the A’s in the wild card game and then taking the Astros to five games in the ALDS.  Tampa Bay will now look to put the final touches on a roster that can get the franchise back into the World Series.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Blake Snell, SP: $46MM through 2023
  • Kevin Kiermaier, CF: $36MM through 2022 (includes $2.5MM buyout of $13MM club option for 2023)
  • Brandon Lowe, 2B: $23MM through 2024 (includes $1MM buyout of $10.5MM club option for 2025)
  • Charlie Morton, SP: $15MM through 2020 (plus vesting option for 2021)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Rays suffered one major departure before the offseason even began, as senior VP of baseball operations Chaim Bloom left the organization to become the new Red Sox chief baseball officer.  Losing a longtime member of the front office is a blow, and losing Bloom to a deep-pocketed division rival is an even tougher pill to swallow, though the Rays will look to fill the void with internal promotions.

In a way, it’s not unlike how the Rays have historically dealt with losing a big name on the field  — simply rely on the organizational depth and try to keep moving forward.  We saw that philosophy in action in 2019, as the Rays tied for the second-winningest season in franchise history even while missing key players like Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, Joey Wendle, and Matt Duffy to the injured list for extended periods of time.

With so much talent already in place and (in theory) better health, it’s possible this winter might not feature quite as much roster churn as past Tampa Bay offseasons.  That said, GM Erik Neander and his staff are forever mindful of maximizing their talent core and managing the payroll at the same time.  As per Roster Resource, the Rays currently have just under $73.8MM committed for 2020 salaries, something of a high figure by Tampa’s standards — the Rays’ Opening Day payroll has exceeded the $70MM mark only five times in club history.

That projected payroll will be lowered due to at least a couple of non-tenders, with Zunino and Duffy standing out as the most obvious candidates.  The former lost his starting catching job to Travis d’Arnaud and the latter struggled through yet another injury-plagued year.

A case could also be made that Guillermo Heredia or Jesus Aguilar could be non-tendered or perhaps traded prior to the arbitration deadline.  The Rays could feel they can do better than Heredia in the backup outfield role, and Aguilar could be expendable with both Ji-Man Choi, Nate Lowe and perhaps another acquisition (more on that shortly) in the first base/DH mix.  Since the Rays are also facing a 40-man roster crunch in advance of the Rule 5 Draft, they could be aggressive in their non-tender decisions as a way of both creating roster space and saving a few dollars at the same time.  The Rays could also explore bringing back any non-tendered players on lower salaries later in the offseason.

Looking around the everyday lineup, the trio of Tommy Pham, Kevin Kiermaier, and Austin Meadows will return in the outfield.  Pham and Meadows were big pluses for the Rays last year, though Kiermaier struggled through his second consecutive subpar year at the plate.  Given that Kiermaier is Tampa’s highest-paid position player but has constantly been plagued with injuries and an inconsistent bat, it wouldn’t be outlandish to imagine that the Rays would explore trade possibilities, if any reasonable offers could be found.  However, the likelier scenario is that Kiermaier returns, as the Rays don’t have any other real center field candidates in the offing.

Around the infield, Willy Adames is locked in at shortstop, though super-prospect Wander Franco could potentially start to make his presence felt by late 2020.  Diaz and Brandon Lowe are respectively penciled in for the bulk of third base and second base duties, with Joey Wendle bouncing between the two positions and Lowe also capable of seeing some time at first base or in the corner outfield.  If Duffy returns, he’d be deployed at third base, opening Diaz up to spend some time as a right-handed counterpoint to Choi and Nate Lowe at first base and DH.  Daniel Robertson and Mike Brosseau would also be hand for bench roles.

It isn’t a bad unit, though in the wake of 2019’s injuries, the Rays might prefer the stability of adding a big bat who can play every day.  The first base/DH spot is the most logical space for such a player, particularly a right-handed bat.  A player with multi-positional versatility would fit the Rays’ model, and Florida native and World Series hero Howie Kendrick is an interesting option on the free agent market.

If the Rays were content with a strict first baseman/DH, however, and were open to spending a bit more as they chase a potential championship, a free agent like Jose Abreu or Edwin Encarnacion could potentially be in play.  It wouldn’t even be out of the question to see either Abreu or Encarnacion get only one-year offers given how the market has treated veteran first basemen in recent years, making such players more enticing to the Rays as a one-year splurge.

To address depth needs, the Rays haven’t ruled out reunions with free agents Avisail Garcia or Eric Sogard, depending on how the market shakes out for either player.  Re-signing Sogard to the infield mix could push Diaz into the role as the right-handed complement to Choi and Lowe. Instead, Garcia could see some time at DH or in right field, allowing for Meadows or other players to cycle through the DH slot on partial rest days.

Travis d’Arnaud is another player the Rays would like to have back, though he might have priced himself out of Tampa’s range after a career-reviving 92-game stint with the team.  d’Arnaud was both productive and healthy in 2019, and now looks to be the second-best option on the free agent catcher market after Yasmani Grandal.

Catcher has been enough of a problem area for the Rays over the years that they might be willing to engage in a minor bidding war if they like what they’ve seen in d’Arnaud, as otherwise, the club will again be looking for answers behind the plate.  d’Arnaud signing elsewhere would make it perhaps almost a necessity that Zunino be retained, as otherwise, Michael Perez would be Tampa’s top in-house choice as the starting catcher, leaving the Rays sifting through the second- or third-tier options on the free agent or trade markets.

Tampa Bay’s bullpen pitched very well last season, and the team will bring just about its entire crop of arms back for another year of constant restocking and reshuffling between the majors and Triple-A Durham.  Emilio Pagan had a big year and is again slated to receive the bulk of closing duties, though the Rays are flexible enough with their bullpen usage that Diego Castillo, Colin Poche, or perhaps a variety of other pitchers could receive save chances depending on the situation.  The Rays are likely to add at least one veteran arm to their mix, though perhaps even just on a minor league contract.

One area that isn’t likely to receive much attention is starting pitching, as the Rays are tentatively hoping that a healthy rotation of Charlie Morton, Snell, Glasnow, Yonny Chirinos, and Ryan Yarbrough can be one of baseball’s best.  It’s worth noting that even with all the injuries, the Rays already had one of the sport’s top rotations in 2019, as the Rays continued to achieve great results with their use of the opener for (as it turned out) multiple turns in the starting five.  Chirinos and Yarbrough were both “promoted” to regular starter roles after being primarily used as bulk pitchers behind an opener, so the Rays could continue using them as normal starters, or perhaps again turn to an opener given how successful the strategy has been.

Top prospect and two-way player Brendan McKay made his MLB debut in 2019 and is an intriguing wild card for both the rotation or even the DH mix.  Midseason pickup Trevor Richards, Austin Pruitt, or former top prospects Anthony Banda and Jose De Leon could also factor in as further depth options, or bulk pitchers.

The Rays’ playoff success isn’t likely to lead to any uncharacteristic spending, as the club’s last big splurge in the 2013-14 offseason (when Andrew Friedman still ran the baseball operations department) backfired, and indirectly contributed to four straight losing seasons from 2014-17.  That said, after signing Morton to a $30MM deal last winter, one can’t deny the possibility that Neander could have another bold move or two in store in order to put the Rays over the top in the AL East.

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