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2019-20 Offseason Outlook

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers

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MLBTR has published Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The 2019 season resulted in another NL West title but more playoff disappointment for the powerhouse Dodgers. Now, newly extended president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman is once again looking for ways to get the Dodgers their first World Series championship since 1988.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Dodgers have been eminently successful since Friedman came over from Tampa Bay to take the reins after the 2014 season. However, despite their financial might, they haven’t been aggressive in handing out large contracts during the Friedman reign. In fact, the Friedman-led Dodgers haven’t issued a single $100MM-plus contract. That could change this offseason, though, as the Dodgers work to finally push themselves over the top in 2020. So far this offseason, they’ve been connected to the three best free agents available – right-hander Gerrit Cole, third baseman Anthony Rendon and righty Stephen Strasburg (the latter two helped bounce the Dodgers from the playoffs this year as members of the Nationals). It’s entirely possible all three will require contracts worth at least $200MM and $30MM or more per year, and giving out that type of deal would obviously represent a radical change of course for the Dodgers.

On paper, the team certainly has the money for a Cole-Rendon-Strasburg splash, but if the Dodgers are still leery of the luxury tax, any of those signings would be difficult to swing. The Dodgers’ luxury-tax projection for 2020 is currently at just south of $180MM, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource and FanGraphs. The first level of the tax next season will fall between $208MM and $228MM. If the Dodgers spend anywhere in that vicinity, the league would hit them with a 20 percent overage tax. Should that deter the Dodgers from making major improvements this winter? Frankly, no, but as we’ve seen time and again, team owners prefer to stay under the tax.

Tax aside, Friedman hasn’t been keen on passing out very long contracts, which could be problematic in regards to a potential LA pursuit of the game’s elite free agents. Cole and Rendon should each get at least seven-year guarantees, while Strasburg may end up at six. Friedman could offer any of those players a high-AAV deal for fewer years, as he reportedly did last offseason with Bryce Harper, but who’s to say any would leave a larger overall guarantee on the table from another club?

Considering the way they typically operate, some skepticism is warranted in regards to whether the Dodgers will actually reel in any of the three superstar free agents on the board. But let’s say it happens. If it’s Cole or Strasburg, he’ll further beef up an already strong rotation that boasts Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw as locks. Meanwhile, Friedman has suggested Julio Urias, Kenta Maeda and Ross Stripling have legit chances to comprise the rest of the rotation. Not to be forgotten, the Dodgers also have Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May among their starting options. At the same time, it would be unwise to rule out the potential re-signing of either Hyun-Jin Ryu and/or Rich Hill, who comprise the Dodgers’ two best free agents. Ryu would make for a nice, much cheaper alternative to Cole or Strasburg, though he’s also in line to do rather well on the open market. The aged Hill should be attainable on a one-year deal, and he has already said he’d like to remain a Dodger. If the Dodgers strike out on all of those fronts, perhaps they’d pursue a trade for a starter. Matthew Boyd, Corey Kluber and Chris Archer (whom Friedman knows well from Tampa Bay) are among the starters who may wind up on the block this offseason.

As is the case with their rotation, the Dodgers don’t necessarily have to do anything at third. Justin Turner remains a hugely valuable contributor, yet the club has nonetheless explored Rendon and the No. 2 third baseman in free agency, Josh Donaldson. The latter’s the type of short-term, high-AAV player who could be up the Dodgers’ alley. What would signing Donaldson mean for Turner, though? Well, the 35-year-old has said he’d be open to a position change, which would likely mean moving to first or second. Problem is that the Dodgers aren’t exactly hard up at either of those spots. Max Muncy can line up at either place, NL MVP-winning outfielder Cody Bellinger can play first on occasion, and stud prospect Gavin Lux garnered quite a bit of experience at the keystone late in the season. All that said, if the Dodgers do add Rendon or Donaldson, perhaps they’d shop Turner. Odds are they wouldn’t have much trouble finding a taker, as Turner’s only signed for another year (at $19MM) and would make for an appealing consolation prize for teams that lose out on Rendon and Donaldson.

Staying in the Dodgers’ infield, there’s also at least some chance of a new shortstop coming to town. The Dodgers are well-equipped there with Corey Seager, but he’s not the type of game-changer Cleveland’s Francisco Lindor is. Lindor has another two arbitration-eligible years remaining and, relative to his performance, figures to earn more-than-reasonable salaries in that span. Nevertheless, because the Indians are unlikely to extend the 26-year-old, his name has been bandied about in trade speculation for months. Should he actually become available, Los Angeles is reportedly among the teams that would consider a pursuit. It’s anyone’s guess what a Lindor acquisition would mean for Seager. Perhaps he’d wind up in Cleveland or elsewhere via trade. Regardless, despite his waning team control, Lindor’s good enough to bring back a haul in a trade. The Dodgers may have the ammunition to pull off such a strike, though, considering their wealth of assets in the majors and minors.

Speaking of trades, the Dodgers could go that route and subtract from their lineup. Outfielder Joc Pederson is coming off a 36-home run season, though he has now come up in trade speculation in back-to-back winters. The White Sox seem particularly interested in Pederson, who’s controllable for one more year and should collect a fair salary worth less than $10MM. Pederson’s a valuable player, so the Dodgers can simply keep him, but as MLBTR’s Steve Adams previously noted, they’d be brimming with good outfielders even after his departure (Bellinger, Alex Verdugo, A.J. Pollock, Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernandez, Kyle Garlick and Matt Beaty). Furthermore, dealing Pederson may help the Dodgers upgrade an area of greater concern on their roster.

The bullpen was often a source of frustration for the Dodgers in 2019, including during their NLDS loss to the Nats. Long-dominant closer Kenley Jansen looked more mortal than ever, while last winter’s big-money Joe Kelly signing probably didn’t produce the Year 1 results the Dodgers wanted. Those two will be back next season, though, as will Pedro Baez, Dylan Floro, Scott Alexander, Adam Kolareak and Casey Sadler. Meanwhile, the hurlers from the Dodgers’ surplus of starters who don’t crack their rotation could also factor into the mix. In all, not a bad group. The Dodgers could still do better, though.

The question is: How can the Dodgers upgrade their bullpen from outside? It might not be that easy in free agency, where the No. 1 reliever on this year’s market, Will Smith, has already signed with the Braves. That move crushed the hopes of the many who wanted to see Will Smith pitching to Will Smith in Los Angeles in 2020. With Smith (the pitcher) and Drew Pomeranz (Padres) now off the board, this year’s class of unsigned relievers looks a lot less inspiring. Dellin Betances, Steve Cishek, Kevin Gausman, Daniel Hudson, Collin McHugh, Joe Smith and Will Harris are some of the best choices left, and the Dodgers have shown interest in former A’s closer Blake Treinen. Meantime, the trade market could feature Ken Giles (Blue Jays), Keone Kela (Pirates) and Mychal Givens (Orioles), to name a few. Whether or not the Dodgers acquire anyone from that bunch, it doesn’t appear they’ll be spending an exorbitant amount of cash on trying to better their relief corps in the coming months.

Unlike some other NL clubs (the Padres and Braves, for example), the Dodgers haven’t orchestrated any headline-grabbing moves to this point in the offseason. However, considering their reported interest in several big fish, that could change as early as next week’s Winter Meetings. Even if the Dodgers veer away from adding any true standouts before next year, the Friedman-led club will enter 2020 as the odds-on favorites to win the NL West yet again. But that alone isn’t going to suffice for Dodgers fans, who have waited three-plus decades since their most recent title and have endured one letdown after another in recent postseasons.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Cubs will consider major trades as they look to improve a team with holes in center field, the rotation, and the bullpen.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

This year the Cubs failed to reach the playoffs for the first time since their rebuild ended in 2015.  Following a disappointing 84-win season, Joe Maddon’s five-year term as manager came to an end.  Despite Maddon achieving the impossible with the Cubs’ 2016 championship, the club showed little interest in a new deal.  It was a pretty typical progression – the Cubs’ performance had become increasingly disappointing, particularly with 2018’s one-game Wild Card ouster and missing the playoffs entirely in ’19.  That’s not a situation where a manager is typically re-signed, even if most of the blame falls on the players and front office.  Maddon is famously laid-back, so the team brought David Ross in to light a fire under the players as well to restore camaraderie.  Ross seems like he’ll be able to improve those situations, and should be equally adept as Maddon in dealing with the media.  Where Ross’ lineup and in-game tactics rank remains to be seen, as he has no prior managerial experience.  The Cubs protected against that concern by hiring former Padres manager Andy Green to serve as Ross’ bench coach.

After hiring Ross, Cubs president Theo Epstein kicked off his offseason by making easy calls on club options, retaining Anthony Rizzo and Jose Quintana and moving on from pitchers David Phelps, Brandon Morrow, Kendall Graveman, and Tony Barnette.  The team also picked up Jharel Cotton, an affordable righty who can compete for a fifth starter or long relief role.  Cotton, 28 in January, looked promising back in 2016 before injuries set in.  The Cubs also made the overdue decision to part ways with infielder Addison Russell, oddly accentuating that they did so because his salary was getting too high.  That the Epstein regime did not cut ties with Russell due to the domestic violence allegations against him more than two years ago is something that many of the team’s fans will continue to find disturbing.

Looking forward, let’s start with the matter of the Cubs’ payroll.  Epstein’s not talking about it, but the Cubs were one of only three teams to exceed the $206MM luxury tax line in 2019.  Back in September, the Associated Press projected the Cubs’ penalty for this infraction to be $6.34MM.  On the surface, it’s difficult to call the team cheap when they’re running a top-three payroll in baseball.  On the other hand, it’s hard to see why a 20% tax on the overage would serve as a real impediment to any major market team.  It’s worth questioning what would constitute a reasonable player payroll for these corporations, rather than taking their word for it or accepting the luxury tax threshold as a salary cap.

Back of the napkin, the Cubs have contract commitments of about $135MM for 2020, plus an arbitration class that should run around $44MM.  There seems to be enough wiggle room for one premium player or at least several decent ones, right?  But the reality is that the team’s competitive balance tax payroll is higher, estimated around $210MM for 2020 already.  As the AP explains, “Luxury tax payrolls are based on the average annual values of contracts for players on 40-man rosters and include $14.5 million per team in benefits.”  Every dollar the Cubs spend between $208MM-228MM comes with a 30% tax, and every dollar they spend between $228MM-248MM comes with a 42% tax.  If the Cubs were to sign Gerrit Cole at a $35MM AAV, it would be more like paying him $48MM in 2020 due to the taxes they’d incur, and it would leave little room for other notable additions without accompanying subtractions.

On the other hand, with Lester, Quintana, and Chatwood off the books in ’21, the Cubs could get under the $210MM base tax threshold in that season, at which point all the taxes would go away.  Would it be crazy to go to $247MM in 2020, pay a $14MM tax once, and then reset?  I don’t think so, but $248MM represents a harder line in the sand since spending beyond that point would be taxed at 75%, and the Cubs’ top draft pick would move down ten spots.  After going down the rabbit hole here, you start to see that there’s almost no chance the Cubs will add more than $38MM in CBT payroll this winter, and they could easily choose to draw the line at $18MM added.

It certainly seems like the Cubs will be sitting out on the major free agents for the second consecutive winter.  Obviously, any of the big dogs would greatly increase the team’s chances of returning to the playoffs in 2020.  With Cole Hamels having signed with the Braves, the Cubs’ rotation sets up as Yu Darvish, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, and Jon Lester.  With Quintana, Lester, and Chatwood due for free agency after the season, another long-term investment in the rotation in the form of Cole or Stephen Strasburg would be worth considering.  Third baseman Anthony Rendon is a tougher fit, as signing the game-changing star would necessitate playing Kris Bryant full-time at an outfield corner, and Bryant has never spent even 500 innings in the outfield in an MLB season.  Or, Bryant could be traded this winter.

Bryant is only under team control for two more seasons, with a slight chance of 2020 becoming his walk year if he wins his service time grievance.  Though Bryant winning the grievance is considered unlikely, I don’t see why, since the Cubs’ manipulation of his service time to gain a seventh year of control was the most blatant case in recent history.  It doesn’t seem crazy to think that an independent arbitrator could rule in his favor.  Regardless, if the Cubs are to seriously entertain trading Bryant this winter, it would have to be after the decision is revealed.  Moving Bryant generally seems like robbing Peter to pay Paul, as Bryant is a five-win player who should earn around $20MM this winter, and that’s a great deal for the Cubs.  Still, it’s possible to trade a five-win player and emerge better for it.

Who might pursue Bryant this winter?  We could start with Rendon’s suitors.  Bryant is about 19 months younger than Rendon, but Rendon has become better on both sides of the ball and projects to remain a little better in the short-term.  The Dodgers, Rangers, and Nationals, as Rendon suitors, could view Bryant as an interesting Plan B, but those same clubs could also look at Josh Donaldson.  If we’re assuming Bryant will mostly be deployed at the hot corner, the Angels, Braves, Phillies, Indians, Marlins, Mets, Rays, or Twins could be options.  Bryant could be especially interesting for teams that would never be able to sign a player of his caliber in free agency.  I can only speculate so much, but I imagine young, controllable starting pitching would be a key part of a Bryant deal for the Cubs.  If the Cubs actually do move Bryant and don’t want to replace him with the large salary of Rendon or Donaldson, they could plug in David Bote as his replacement at third base.

Similarly, we’ve seen the suggestion the Cubs could trade catcher Willson Contreras this winter.  Contreras, 27, is one of the best-hitting catchers in the game, and he has three years of remaining control.  He’s poorly regarded as a pitch framer, so the teams that lost out on Yasmani Grandal won’t necessarily be all over Contreras.  The Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Mets, and Rangers could potentially seek a boost behind the plate and consider Contreras.  But the Cubs, much like with any potential Bryant trade, would increase their own exposure by elevating Victor Caratini to regular status, especially with Grandal off the board.  “The Cubs are going to make a move,” wrote ESPN’s Jeff Passan, so it seems that after years of threatening a possible position player shakeup, the club will actually do so to some degree this winter.

While the Cubs’ infield could easily be left alone, with Nico Hoerner stepping in as the regular second baseman, the team’s outfield situation seems more unsettled.  Heyward has a spot locked down, and has at least settled in as a two-win player who could be used in center field in the short-term.  I don’t think the Cubs want to commit to keeping Heyward out of his natural right field position, however, which is one reason a reunion with Nicholas Castellanos seems unlikely.  Mike Moustakas, a pretty good but flawed position player without a qualifying offer attached, snagged a four-year, $64MM deal from the Reds.  Castellanos, almost three and a half years younger than Moose, seems to have a chance at topping that contract.  Given Castellanos’ defensive limitations and their current payroll crunch, that doesn’t seem like a contract the Cubs will find palatable.

Plus, Kyle Schwarber already serves the role as a solid bat-first corner outfielder for the Cubs, and he should clock in at half Castellanos’ salary without a long-term commitment.  While Schwarber is certainly a trade candidate, the simplest scenario for the Cubs may be to leave him in left and Heyward in right, importing a quality starting center fielder.  That would bump Albert Almora to a fourth outfielder role or trade bait, not that much return would be expected.  The Cubs have Shogo Akiyama on their radar as a possible center field solution, according to Patrick Mooney of The Athletic.  Jackie Bradley Jr. could be a trade option, though not a game-changer, and his $11MM salary projection is problematic.  Starling Marte would be an excellent target if the Pirates are willing to move him in the division, and his $11.5MM CBT hit would be worth it.  Aside from Akiyama, the free agent market is sparse at center field, with only Kevin Pillar and Brett Gardner qualifying as potential regulars.  Though the Cubs’ center fielder doesn’t necessarily have to be their leadoff hitter, it would be nice to kill two birds with one stone.  Akiyama has run an OBP of .385 or better for the Seibu Lions in each of the last five seasons, so the Cubs’ interest makes sense.

We haven’t talked yet about Ian Happ, the Cubs’ first-round pick from 2015.  The 25-year-old has a career 112 wRC+ in 1,031 plate appearances, though the switch-hitter’s success has been largely against right-handed pitching.  He’s been a man without a position in his big league career, though perhaps 2020 could represent a chance to earn semi-regular playing time in center field if the Cubs don’t make a significant pickup.  Happ is also a trade option, though the Cubs could be selling low.

Moving Heyward to center field in the short-term is also palatable.  That could allow the Cubs to consider free agents like Avisail Garcia, Yasiel Puig, Kole Calhoun, and Steven Souza.  None represent a clear upgrade for the Cubs, however.  Mookie Betts remains the crown jewel of the trade market, and of course would be a huge one-year addition for the Cubs.  As the GM who drafted Betts, you’d have to think Epstein will at least inquire, but a salary projection near $30MM could be an issue for the Cubs the same way it is for the Red Sox.  More down-to-earth trade options could include Trey Mancini or Whit Merrifield (who could also help at second base).

The Cubs would be well-served to think bigger with their open rotation spot than Jharel Cotton, Adbert Alzolay, and Chatwood, but it’s unclear how big they’ll go.  I think they’d top out at a $10MM a year type of free agent, and possibly wouldn’t go that far.  The decision not to issue a qualifying offer to Hamels showed, if nothing else, they weren’t comfortable risking him accepting a one-year, $17.8MM deal, even though that’s the contract he ended up getting from the Braves.  It’s also quite possible the Cubs’ rotation will be addressed with an affordable young arm if they wind up trading a position player.

The Cubs’ bullpen is of greater urgency.  Given their commitment to Kimbrel, they’ve got to try to fix him after a disastrous stint in which he posted a 6.53 ERA with nine home runs allowed in 20 2/3 innings.  After Kimbrel, Rowan Wick and Kyle Ryan probably have spots locked down.  Veterans Pedro Strop, Steve Cishek, and Brandon Kintzler are all free agents, though Strop has expressed a desire to return.  Ideally, the Cubs would add a stable veteran who could step into the ninth inning if Kimbrel falters.  Reliability is not easily found among free agent relievers, though Will Harris might fit the bill.

Assuming Bryant’s grievance goes the Cubs’ way, their core position player trio of Bryant, Javier Baez, and Anthony Rizzo remains under control through 2021.  The three players should be good for 12 WAR at a cost of about $44MM in total in 2020.  While that’s obviously not the strong competitive advantage of paying all three players less than $9MM total for 13+ WAR, as they did in each of the 2016 and ’17 seasons, it’s still a great price for the talent and not something to be squandered.  Logically, if there’s a time for the franchise to take a step back and reset, it’s after the 2021 season.  With the team’s payroll issues still in full force, creativity will be required by Epstein and company this winter.

Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

On the heels of their second straight NL East-winning campaign, the Braves have gotten off to an aggressive start this offseason. General manager Alex Anthopoulos, who’s trying to build an Atlanta team capable of winning a playoff series for the first time since 2001, has doled out an array of guaranteed contracts in the early stages of the winter. But the club’s still in danger of losing one of its top performers from 2019, free-agent third baseman Josh Donaldson.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Braves’ bullpen was unreliable during the season, which is why Anthopoulos started making over the unit in the summer. He swung pre-deadline trades for Shane Greene, Mark Melancon and setup man Chris Martin, who will return as key members of the group in 2020. Martin had been in line to leave, but the Braves instead brought back the nomadic 33-year-old right-hander on a two-year, $14MM contract a couple weeks ago. Likewise, they re-signed righty Darren O’Day this month, preventing his exit with a $2.75MM guarantee. Originally acquired from the Orioles before the 2018 deadline, hamstring and forearm injuries stopped the 37-year-old O’Day from pitching for the Braves until this September. But when O’Day finally retook the mound, he looked like the steady reliever he has been throughout his long career.

While the Martin and O’Day re-signings are hard to argue with, no move the Braves have made thus far should help more than the splashy addition of Will Smith. Once Aroldis Chapman stuck with the Yankees, the left-handed Smith, 30, became the undisputed premier reliever in this class. Previously with the Giants, Smith earned his first All-Star nod in 2019, during which he fired 65 1/3 innings of 2.76 ERA ball, posted 13.22 K/9 against 2.89 BB/9 and racked up 34 saves in 38 attempts.

As a result of his brilliant final season in San Francisco, MLBTR forecast a three-year, $42MM at the outset of free agency. The Braves, to their credit, paid a little less than that. They reeled in the Georgia-born Smith for $40MM over three years, though it seems they plan is to use him as a setup man to his former Giants teammate Melancon. Regardless, with the two of them, Greene, Martin and O’Day among its best late-game choices, Atlanta has remade its relief corps dating back to the summer. The Braves’ bullpen, although not particularly young, now looks like a strength.

While the bullpen has been Anthopoulos’ primary focus to this point, he has also overseen several moves on the position player side. First of all, outfielder Nick Markakis and catcher Tyler Flowers are back. The Braves bought out both players’ options for $2MM after the season, only to re-up them for guarantees of $4MM. The club still has to pay the pair $6MM apiece, but they’ll only count for $4MM in salary toward next year’s payroll. Whether that will actually matter remains to be seen, as the Braves aren’t typically a team that has to fear the luxury tax.

The lefty-swinging Markakis seems likely to platoon with the righty-hitting Adam Duvall in one of the outfield corners in 2020, continuing to bridge the gap toward promotions for high-end prospects Cristian Pache and Drew Waters. In the meantime, Markakis, Duvall, potential starter Ender Inciarte (if he’s not traded) and Austin Riley don’t make for the most confidence-inspiring quartet, though superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. is obviously well-equipped to keep serving as the rising tide that lifts all boats in the outfield.

Behind the plate, Flowers remained a decent option last season, once again combining adequate offense (relative to his position) with elite pitch-framing skills. He teamed with Brian McCann and Francisco Cervelli then, but the former retired after a stellar career and the latter is a free agent. With that in mind, the Braves needed a new partner for Flowers. They got one in Travis d’Arnaud, whom they signed to a two-year, $16MM deal last week.

A former Blue Jay, d’Arnaud is now reunited with Anthopoulos, Toronto’s ex-GM. It was Anthopoulos who traded d’Arnaud out of Canada, landing then-star knuckleballer R.A. Dickey in a 2012 blockbuster with the Mets. D’Arnaud was an elite prospect at that point, but he wound up enduring a somewhat disappointing Mets tenure that was consistently marred by injuries. The Mets finally had enough of d’Arnaud early last season, designating him for assignment, but he has enjoyed a career renaissance since. The 30-year-old rebuilt his stock as a Ray over the past several months, thus turning himself into either the second- or third-best catcher on the open market. MLBTR projected a two-year, $14MM deal, so his Braves payday hardly came as a surprise.

Every pact Atlanta has handed out so far looks reasonable, but it’s still worth wondering how much more ownership is willing to spend. Liberty Media CEO Greg Maffei has said the team still plans to “spend some money,” but it’s just about anyone’s guess what that means. The Braves began last season with a payroll in the $115MM range and have never spent more than $122MM-plus on a season-opening roster, per Cot’s. Now, according to the math of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource and FanGraphs, they already have about $127MM in commitments for next year. There’s room to cut some of that out via non-tenders and trades (Inciarte?), but those moves wouldn’t free up a windfall of cash.

While it’s unclear how much more money Atlanta’s willing to put into its roster, it’s inarguable the club remains in need of upgrades. Third base, such a strength a season ago, is now a massive question mark with Donaldson unsigned. The Braves and Donaldson have expressed a desire to stay together on multiple occasions. Problem is that his next contract could be fairly exorbitant (MLBTR projects $75MM over three years), and several other teams have been eyeing him since free agency commenced. No doubt, Donaldson’s the No. 2 third baseman on the market, trailing only Anthony Rendon. But if the Braves don’t want to pay Donaldson, they can probably forget about splurging on Rendon for $200-some mill. That could point them to Mike Moustakas, whom they’ve showed interest in and whose next deal should come in around $20MM. Moustakas is no Donaldson or Rendon, but he’d make for a nice stopgap and allow Riley to either continue in the outfield or head to Triple-A for further seasoning. Moose would also be an easy upgrade over Johan Camargo, who’s coming off a season in which he recorded disastrous numbers.

Aside from third, the Braves’ rotation sticks out as a sore spot, especially after the club bought out innings eater Julio Teheran and saw Dallas Keuchel hit free agency. Supreme young building block Mike Soroka’s back, as are Max Fried and Mike Foltynewicz. The rest of the group is decidedly less proven, with Sean Newcomb potentially returning to a starting role after a year spent mostly as a reliever. Kyle Wright’s a former top 40 prospect who could also factor in, but his MLB experience is limited (and his brief action in the majors hasn’t gone well). Meanwhile, promising prospects Ian Anderson, Kyle Muller and Bryse Wilson have logged few to no innings above the minors.

So now what? Well, there are several avenues the Braves could explore. Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg look like pipe dreams, but the rest of this starting class appears far more realistic. Former Giant Madison Bumgarner is reportedly high atop the Braves’ wish list, though he won’t come cheap. Meanwhile, Zack Wheeler, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Cole Hamels and Keuchel are all poised to cash in to varying extents.

If the Braves don’t win the bidding for any starters near the head of the class, they could turn to the trade market, where they’d perhaps be able to take advantage of their impressive farm system to acquire proven, affordable, controllable talent. The Braves had interest in Tigers lefty Matthew Boyd during the summer. Boyd wound up staying put, but he once again sticks out as one of the most obvious trade candidates in the game. Aside from Boyd, the D-backs’ Robbie Ray, the Pirates’ Chris Archer, the Orioles’ Dylan Bundy, the Indians’ Corey Kluber and the Marlins’ Caleb Smith represent starters who made it to the Top 25 Offseason Trade Candidates list MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and Steve Adams just put together.

In terms of ideas that are of the pie-in-the-sky variety, would the Braves dare try to assemble a package for Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor or the Rockies’ Trevor Story? Picking up either could mean parting with stud prospects and incumbent shortstop Dansby Swanson, but either would be the type of acquisition who would place the Braves near the top of the league’s list of World Series contenders entering 2020. Of course, both players are only under control for two more years – the same amount of time as Braves franchise first baseman and extension candidate Freddie Freeman. Would the team be able to extend both? That’s one of several reasons it’s worth wondering whether the Braves would be interested in this sort of trade. Nevertheless, it’s at least worth bringing up as a possibility.

The offseason’s only a few weeks old, but Anthopoulos has already crammed an entire winter’s worth of action into the month of November. With third base seemingly open and at least one rotation spot potentially up for grabs, you can bet the GM isn’t done yet.

2019-20 Offseason Outlook Series

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MLB Trade Rumors’ annual Offseason Outlook series examines the potential signings, trades, and other moves that could be in store for all 30 teams this winter.  This post contains links to all of the completed Outlooks, so keep this page bookmarked in order to follow along as more posts are written in the coming weeks.

NL East

NL Central

NL West

AL West

AL Central

AL East

Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.

Having completed a three-season rebuilding period, the White Sox must make significant additions and field a competitive team in 2020.  With the Yasmani Grandal signing, they’ve already got a strong early start.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Yasmani Grandal, C: $73MM through 2023
  • Jose Abreu, 1B: $50MM through 2022.
  • Kelvin Herrera, RP: $9.5MM through 2020.  Includes club option for 2021.
  • Eloy Jimenez, LF: $37MM through 2024.  Includes club options for 2025 and ’26.
  • Tim Anderson, SS: $21.75MM through 2022.  Includes club options for 2023 and ’24.

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

In the three weeks since the World Series ended, the White Sox have already made several notable offseason moves.  The first was to ship catcher Welington Castillo to the Rangers, giving up $250K in international bonus pool space as a way of saving $500K in real money in the form of Castillo’s buyout.  As James Fegan of The Athletic wrote, the question is “why a seemingly paltry amount of the major-league payroll is being prioritized over a significant portion of the international bonus pool,” as this is not the first time the White Sox have done so.  To hear White Sox Senior Vice President/General Manager Rick Hahn tell it, the team’s international staff did not have any further signings they wanted to make, so he then set out to exchange the club’s bonus pool space for some benefit.  The shedding of international bonus pool space invited skepticism in some corners, including from Jim Margalus of Sox Machine.

As this outlook was in progress, the White Sox signed the #7 free agent on the market, catcher Yasmani Grandal, to a four-year, $73MM deal.  The contract surpasses Abreu for the largest in franchise history, a major commitment to a player who fits the team like a glove.  The Sox have added perhaps the best hitter and pitch framer among all MLB catchers.  And unlike last year’s failed pursuit of Manny Machado, Hahn and company proved that they actually are willing and able to win the bidding on a top free agent.  While he’s not a $300MM player, Grandal offers a huge boost behind the plate over incumbent James McCann, perhaps on the order of four additional wins in 2020.  McCann could stay on as a somewhat overqualified backup for Grandal (he did make the All-Star team this year), but he becomes a pretty clear trade candidate, especially given Zack Collins’ bond with Grandal.

Earlier this month the White Sox made the fairly reasonable decision to give Jose Abreu a qualifying offer, which served the dual purpose of cementing their longstanding interest in retaining him, and of creating a drag on the idea of another team signing him.  The widely expected multiyear agreement didn’t happen by the November 14th deadline for Abreu, so the player chose to accept the strong $17.8MM salary on a one-year deal for 2020.  At that point first base was filled for 2020, and the White Sox didn’t have to commit beyond Abreu’s age-33 season.  Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf can be loyal to a fault, however, and the team chose to overwrite that one-year deal with a three-year, $50MM pact that surely had much to do with Abreu’s clubhouse presence as his production at the plate.  Chalk this one up as a win for Abreu, who was unlikely to find this level of a contract on the open market.  Should White Sox fans complain?  Only to the extent that Abreu’s unnecessary new deal prevents them from upgrading the rest of the roster, which doesn’t seem likely at least this offseason.

One other notable move happened this week, with the club removing second baseman Yolmer Sanchez from the 40-man roster.  Sanchez seemed unlikely to make it past Monday’s non-tender deadline anyway, but now the path is clear for prospect Nick Madrigal.

Due to the team committing over $123MM before Thanksgiving, this is beginning to read more like an offseason review than an outlook.  However, there’s plenty of speculation left to do.  One clear remaining area of upgrade for the White Sox is right field.  While there’s a slight preference for left-handed bats, perhaps the addition of a switch-hitter like Grandal reduces that.  Options in free agency include Nicholas Castellanos, Kole Calhoun, and Yasiel Puig.  Both Marcell Ozuna and Eloy Jimenez seem limited to left field, making Ozuna a difficult fit.  Nor have Corey Dickerson or Brett Gardner played much right field.  On the trade market, one consideration is Mookie Betts, a potentially huge one-year rental if Hahn could pry him loose from the Red Sox.  Perhaps of equal or greater acquisition cost would be the Mariners’ Mitch Haniger, who is under control for three more seasons.  The trade market could also offer Josh Reddick, Nomar Mazara, Stephen Piscotty, and Hunter Renfroe, none of whom would be considered a clear upgrade.

The Sox are also wide open at designated hitter, and a few interesting options abound if the team is willing to use the spot mostly for one player.  Chicago was considered the speculative favorite for J.D. Martinez if he’d chosen to opt out, with the thinking that the Red Sox wouldn’t necessarily have minded gaining relief from Martinez’s contract.  If the White Sox indeed like Martinez, I wonder if they’d attempt to take him and his three-year, $62.5MM commitment off Boston’s hands.  One issue could be Martinez’s ability to opt out after the 2020 season, which brings downside risk for the White Sox.  It’s also plausible that the White Sox could attempt to use their financial flexibility to acquire Khris Davis and most of his $33.5MM commitment from Oakland.  A simpler move would be to simply sign a free agent who could be plugged in as a regular DH, such as Edwin Encarnacion or Hunter Pence.

The White Sox will almost certainly add starting pitching this winter, with Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease, and Reynaldo Lopez penciled in plus interesting options like Carlos Rodon and Michael Kopech.  Even with Jake Odorizzi off the board, the free agent market is flush with options.  Though they’ve never given out a $100MM contract, the White Sox have at least attempted to dole out a $200MM deal, and they could certainly compete on Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg if Reinsdorf so chooses.  They’re also viable suitors for Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dallas Keuchel, Cole Hamels, and just about any other free agent.  Signing Grandal early could have a benefit here: the White Sox have signaled they’re not messing around, and presumed “contenders only” names like Bumgarner, Ryu, and Hamels could get on board.  The trade market doesn’t appear overwhelming, but certainly a Matthew Boyd, Chris Archer, or Jon Gray would be attainable for the Sox.  If you want to get a little more fantastical with trade ideas, we can again speculate on financially bailing out the Red Sox, with David Price or even Chris Sale.  The White Sox re-acquiring Sale would be particularly entertaining, but with a $145MM commitment and an elbow injury ending his season in August, it’s the ultimate long shot.

Like most teams, the White Sox could also stand to improve their bullpen.  Colome, Herrera, and Aaron Bummer are guaranteed spots, while Evan Marshall and Jimmy Cordero will surely be in the mix.  It remains to be seen how aggressively the White Sox will address the bullpen given their other needs, though the Braves have already scooped up Will Smith and Chris Martin from the top end of the free agent market.  Plus, the Sox already can expect to pay Colome and Herrera around $19MM for their 2020 efforts.

Even after signing Grandal and Abreu, their projected commitments sit around $80MM.  With so many big-market teams crying poor this winter, the White Sox are in excellent position to add several more impact free agents and make a major push into contention for 2020 and beyond.

Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

A month ago, the Astros came within a game of winning their second World Series in three seasons. Now? They’re the subject of an investigation by MLB commissioner Rob Manfred’s office and could lose one of the game’s best pitchers to free agency.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (contract projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

We’ll get this out of the way up front: while the Astros have plenty of roster needs to address this offseason, the primary storyline right now is the league’s investigation into the electronic sign-stealing accusations brought forth against them, which stem back to the 2017 season. There are potentially severe ramifications for the Houston organization if sufficient evidence arises to prove their guilt, but at this point the extent of those still-theoretical sanctions can’t be known. This outlook will focus purely on the team’s roster and payroll outlook, as there’s no means of determining exactly when, how or even if the Astros will be penalized by the commissioner’s office.

With that out of the way, the biggest needs facing the Astros organization come in the rotation and behind the plate. Houston picked up Zack Greinke in a last-minute trade-deadline blockbuster, but Gerrit Cole and Wade Miley both reached free agency at season’s end. Robinson Chirinos and Martin Maldonado are both free agents, too, leaving 26-year-old Garrett Stubbs as the only catcher on Houston’s 40-man roster. Clearly, that leaves president of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow and his staff with some work to do.

To what extent is ownership willing to spend to address those needs, though? Owner Jim Crane said in early October that the Astros “prefer not to” cross the $208MM luxury tax barrier, though he cautioned that the team’s postseason showing could influence that decision. A run to Game 7 of the World Series surely put some extra cash in the pipeline, but the strongest comments Crane has made with regard to spending this winter came earlier this month when discussing Cole’s free agency: “We’re going to take a run at it. We don’t know if we can get to where they want to get. [Agent Scott] Boras is tough to deal with.” A resounding cry of aggression, it was not, but that shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. The likelihood that Cole has become too large a piece to fit into this puzzle has been apparent for some time now.

The biggest obstacle for the Astros is that even assuming a non-tender of July acquisition Aaron Sanchez, whose 2020 status is up in the air after shoulder surgery, Houston’s payroll will top $200MM in 2020. The exact projections will vary, as the specific number is dependent on arbitration-eligible players and on determining exactly what they owe Greinke. The D-backs are paying a reported $10.33MM of the $35MM owed to Greinke in 2020 and 2021 ($32MM base salary plus a $3MM payment of his pro-rated signing bonus), and $11MM of that yearly sum is deferred to 2022-26.

None of those payroll gymnastics matter for luxury-tax purposes, though, as that calculation is more straightforward and based on the average annual value of the team’s contractual obligations. Between guaranteed contracts, arbitration projections, pre-arbitration players and money set aside for player benefits, Jason Martinez of Roster Resource has their current luxury obligations at a whopping $238MM. Non-tendering Sanchez would trim $5.6MM of that, but it’s clear that the team’s offseason level of activity will be heavily dependent on whether Crane and his group can indeed stomach what looks like a potentially notable luxury hit.

Given the team’s cloudy fiscal outlook, it’s perhaps not surprising that Luhnow has already gone on record as stating that right-hander Jose Urquidy will “likely” be in the team’s rotation next year. He’ll be joined by a returning Lance McCullers Jr., and the club has some upper-level depth in Rogelio Armenteros, Cionel Perez, Bryan Abreu and Forrest Whitley. But Whitley’s stock is down after a miserable 2019 season, McCullers is something of a wild card in his first season back from Tommy John surgery, and the team traded righties Corban Martin and J.B. Bukauskas to the D-backs in the Greinke swap. At the very least, one veteran stabilizer or would seem to be a prudent addition — even if it’s a low-cost add in the Brett Anderson or Homer Bailey mold. If the Astros want more of an upside play, they could roll the dice on Josh Lindblom, Kwang-hyun Kim or Shun Yamaguchi as they look to jump from the KBO (Lindblom, Kim) and NPB (Yamaguchi) to the Majors.

Behind the plate, a reunion with any number of old friends would be logical: Chirinos, Maldonado and Jason Castro are all available in free agency. The Mariners are reportedly exploring the market for Omar Narvaez, who’s only projected to receive a modest $2.9MM salary in his first year of arbitration. On the pricier side of things, the Cubs could listen to offers for Willson Contreras. Ultimately, whether it’s via trade or free agency, the Astros have to add a catcher or two; Stubbs hit just .240/.332/.397 (79 wRC+) last year in Triple-A while the rest of the league exploded with historic levels of offensive output.

Around the rest of the roster, things look largely set. Yuli Gurriel, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman will comprise the infield, while the outfield has Michael Brantley, George Springer, Josh Reddick, Jake Marisnick and Kyle Tucker in the mix. Rookie of the Year Yordan Alvarez will return to DH and could see some occasional reps in left or at first base. It’s a stacked lineup.

There’s a scenario where the Astros stick primarily in house for the starting staff, pick up a cheap catcher and hope their core can stay healthy enough to carry them to yet another AL West championship. They could even look to shed some of Reddick’s remaining $13MM and go with the younger, more affordable Tucker in right field. There’s enough talent there, but relying on McCullers and a pair of young arms to round out the starting staff would leave the team with little depth, especially in the event of an injury to Verlander or Greinke.

Frankly, however, it’s hard to see just how this Astros roster could possibly be constructed to drop below the luxury tax without severely compromising its core. Barring a shocking trade — e.g. Springer, Greinke — there just aren’t many natural means to reducing payroll. As such, the best course of action is probably to just bite the bullet and wade deep into luxury-tax waters. After all, the Astros will see Reddick, Brantley, Springer, Gurriel and Peacock all come off the books for the 2021 season. Greinke and Verlander will both be free agents the following winter. That’s not to say Houston’s window is “closing,” but the current roster presents an excellent shot at returning to postseason play (particularly with a few additions). A one-year dalliance into luxury territory isn’t likely to come with especially lengthy or concerning ramifications.

And if Houston is willing to pay the luxury tax, the market offers plenty of intriguing mid-rotation arms that won’t require a $30MM+ annual salary like Cole or Stephen Strasburg ultimately will. A reunion with Dallas Keuchel or a pursuit of a mid-tier option like Rick Porcello, Tanner Roark, Kyle Gibson or Michael Pineda would make plenty of sense. Alternatively, the Astros could look to the trade market to find a less pricey option. Jon Gray or Chris Archer have high-end raw stuff, and Houston has successfully coaxed better performances out of pitchers in similar scenarios. The team had interest in Matthew Boyd at the trade deadline and could look into him again.

The flexibility they have on the position-player side bodes well for creative additions, too. If the Astros have grown weary of Correa’s injury troubles, could they even utilize him to acquire starting pitching help and make a separate run at a high-end trade target? Francisco Lindor and Kris Bryant have already seen their names pop up in rumors, and the free-agent market isn’t short on quality third basemen if the team is comfortable with Bregman playing shortstop on a full-time basis.

At this point, a legitimate run at signing any of Cole, Strasburg or Anthony Rendon seems hard to fathom, as it’d truly put the Astros into unprecedented luxury tax territory. But there’s room for the team to shed some salary (Sanchez, Reddick, Chris Devenski, Jake Marisnick, perhaps Roberto Osuna), still make a few additions and simply be OK with living in the second tier of penalization. (The max penalty any first-time CBT offender would pay for going right up to the cusp of the top penalty tier would be $10.4MM.) It’ll be a fine line to walk, but this Houston front office should be creative enough to successfully thread that needle.

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Phillies have a pivotal offseason ahead of them, as the club is still seeking its first playoff berth since 2011 despite a concerted effort to emerge from a multi-year rebuilding process. With manager Gabe Kapler dismissed in favor of veteran Joe Girardi, the pressure on the front office is mounting to put together a winning unit.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Bryce Harper, OF: $300MM through 2031
  • Jean Segura, SS: $43.75MM through 2022 (including $1MM buyout of 2023 option)
  • Andrew McCutchen, OF: $40MM through 2021 (including $3MM buyout of 2022 option)
  • Aaron Nola, RHP: $39MM through 2022 (including $4.25MM buyout of 2023 option)
  • Scott Kingery, INF/OF: $20.5MM through 2023 (including $1MM buyout for 2024)
  • Jake Arrieta, RHP: $20MM through 2020
  • Odubel Herrera, OF: $19.5MM through 2021 (including $2.5MM buyout of 2022 option)
  • David Robertson, RP: $13MM through 2020 (including $2MM buyout for 2021)
  • Jay Bruce, OF: $13MM through 2020 (Mariners are paying $11.625MM)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Jason Vargas, LHP: Phillies declined $8MM option in favor of $2MM buyout
  • Pat Neshek, RP: Phillies declined $7MM option in favor of $750K buyout
  • Jared Hughes, RP: Phillies declined $3MM option in favor of $250K buyout

Free Agents

Over the past two winters, the Phils have added the likes of Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, Jake Arrieta and David Robertson via free-agent deals while swinging high-profile trades to acquire J.T. Realmuto and Jean Segura (among others). The directive from ownership and the front office alike has been clear: bring playoff baseball back to Philadelphia. Hard as it may be to believe, the Phillies haven’t played a postseason game since 2011, when their roster featured the dominant trio of Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and the late Roy Halladay. (Roy Oswalt wasn’t exactly a shabby fourth starter, either.)

Aggressive as they’ve been, however, the Phillies simply haven’t been able to sustain a season’s worth of winning ways. The 2018 and 2019 Phillies each had clear talent, as both iterations of the team enjoyed a lengthy run in first place in the NL East. However, those two most recent versions of the Phils also faceplanted in stunning fashion late in the season and were left at or just shy of the .500 mark. Now, fourth-year GM Matt Klentak is feeling more pressure to construct a winner than ever before.

The clearest area for improvement is on the pitching staff, where Philadelphia hurlers were a nearly across-the-board disappointment — so much so that pitching coach Chris Young was jettisoned after just one year on the job. Bryan Price, who like Girardi is a seasoned dugout veteran, will step into Young’s place and work to improve upon a Phillies rotation that posted a lowly 4.64 ERA (4.91 FIP) and a bullpen that wasn’t much better (4.38 ERA, 4.84 FIP).

In the rotation, Aaron Nola is really the Phillies’ only surefire bet to be an above-average starter. The 2019 season certainly wasn’t Nola’s best, but the 26-year-old has cemented himself as a quality workhorse upon whom the club can rely. Jake Arrieta was once described similarly, but he struggled in 2019 while pitching through a bone spur in his elbow and ultimately succumbed to season-ending surgery. At 34 years of age in March, the former Cy Young winner is somewhat of a wild card in the rotation.

The 2019 Phillies opted to forgo veteran rotation additions and instead leaned heavily on Zach Eflin, Nick Pivetta and Vince Velasquez, entrusting the balance of its Opening Day rotation spots to that young trio. Of the three, only Eflin delivered useful results — and even he briefly lost his grip on a rotation spot and found himself sojourned to the bullpen. Through 163 1/3 innings, the 25-year-old notched a 4.13 ERA with 7.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and a 44.6 percent ground-ball rate. Eflin’s 1.54 HR/9 mark was higher than one would like (hence his 4.85 FIP), but his bottom-line results were plenty serviceable. The same can’t be said for the 26-year-old Pivetta or the 27-year-old Velasquez. Pivetta logged a brutal 5.74 ERA as a starter, while Velasquez was only a bit better (4.96 ERA in the rotation).

It can be argued that the Phillies should have a greater sense of urgency than any other team in MLB when it comes to adding to the rotation (particularly now that Jake Odorizzi accepted a qualifying offer in Minnesota, giving the rotation-needy Twins a bit more stability). Fortunately, it’s a deep class of starting pitching headlined by a pair of bona fide, franchise-altering aces in the form of Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg. But, while the Phillies have been as aggressive as anyone on the open market in recent seasons, Klentak has suddenly offered a more measured approach with regard to free agency.

“One of the things we’ve got to try to do, if we can, is to not forfeit draft picks, and that’s hard when you’re fishing in the deep end of the free-agent pond,” Klentak said in a recent appearance on the 94 WIP Midday Show. But we lost our second-round pick last year and our second and third the year before. That doesn’t sound like a lot, but that’s where Scott Kingery comes from. That’s where Spencer Howard comes from. That’s where Connor Seabold comes from. … We’ve got to try to hang onto that as much as we can.”

Perhaps Klentak was merely doing everything in his power to avoid doubling down on owner John Middleton’s “stupid money” decree a year ago this time, but those comments don’t sound like a portent for a run at Cole or Strasburg. Middleton could, of course, take matters into his own hands, but Klentak’s recent sentiment is surely of note.

If the organizational preference is indeed to add rotation help — and Klentak did plainly state a need to address the starting staff in that same interview — then the top names on the Phillies’ radar would likely be Hyun-Jin Ryu and old friend Cole Hamels, who has already expressed interest in a return to the Phils. Other notable names lacking a qualifying offer include Dallas Keuchel, Michael Pineda, Rick Porcello, Tanner Roark, Julio Teheran and Kyle Gibson. While no one from that bunch is of the same caliber as the Cole or Strasburg — Ryu may not be far off, but his durability is a perennial question mark — the Phils do have options to round out the rotation if they prefer to hang onto their draft choices.

As always, the trade market will present innumerable alternatives. Corey Kluber, Matthew Boyd, Chris Archer, Jon Gray, Robbie Ray, Marco Gonzales and (depending on the direction the Red Sox go) Eduardo Rodriguez are all, at the very least, plausible winter trade candidates. Other, less-expected names will surely surface as well.

There’s also reason to believe the Phillies will work to improve their relief corps. The club’s relief unit — like those of the rest of the NL East teams — was not a strength in 2019. Closer Hector Neris is a solid performer at the back of the unit. Pitchers such as Jose Alvarez, Seranthony Dominguez, and Ranger Suarez showed some promise. Victor Arano could be a big asset if he can return to health. But there’s obviously room for improvement. Klentak could consider any and all remaining open-market options, though he’d need to hit the trade market if he prefers to pursue a tried-and-true closer type.

Looking at the team’s lineup, there are nearly as many questions as answers. J.T. Realmuto will once again be the team’s primary catcher in 2020 — and perhaps for years to come if the two sides can come to terms on an extension, which is another key winter priority for Klentak and his staff. Bryce Harper is now entrenched in right field, and a healthy Andrew McCutchen will return from an ACL tear to man the other outfield corner. On the infield, first baseman Rhys Hoskins will look to rebound from a terrible second half, and Jean Segura is signed through 2022. Scott Kingery will be in the mix somewhere, but his ability to play third base, second base, shortstop and the outfield gives the Phils quite a bit of flexibility.

They’ll need it, particularly with the possibility of non-tendering Maikel Franco and Cesar Hernandez. The latter of the two has generally been a solid second baseman but could see his arbitration price climb north of $11MM in 2020, which is an untenable financial arrangement, especially with a free agent market loaded with veteran alternatives. The former, meanwhile, has struggled immensely and never fully delivered on his once ballyhooed prospect status. And then there’s center fielder Odubel Herrera, who was suspended 85 games under MLB’s domestic violence policy and isn’t guaranteed a place in the organization moving forward. (And even before that ban, Herrera wasn’t producing at the plate.)

The Phillies, then, could explore the market for third basemen, second basemen and/or center fielders depending on how they want to play their cards. The infield offers ample possibilities, with Anthony Rendon, Josh Donaldson and Mike Moustakas all available in free agency and a host of serviceable (but unspectacular) second basemen on the market as well. Rendon and Donaldson have qualifying offers attached to them, so if the Phillies are indeed avoiding such free agents, they’d likely look to Moustakas as the headlining free-agent option. A pursuit of Didi Gregorius may not be an immediately obvious fit, but Segura could move to either second or third base to facilitate that type of deal. (And on cue, there’s now reporting to suggest this could indeed be a consideration.)

The center field market is rather thin, with only Brett Gardner and Shogo Akiyama representing viable regulars in free agency. But the trade market offers a natural fit in Pirates center fielder Starling Marte. The Phillies could also line up with the Red Sox on a Jackie Bradley Jr. deal.

The Phillies, though, have the financial means and the urgency needed to go searching for a bigger fish. If the Red Sox truly are going to explore moving Mookie Betts, he’d look mighty fine roaming center field in Philly for the 2020 season (if not beyond). There’s been plenty of speculation about the possibility of the Cubs moving Kris Bryant this winter, and the Phils have a need at the hot corner. Francisco Lindor’s name is out there, too; clearing the way for him at short would easily be worth the trouble. The Phillies don’t have the deepest of farm systems, but there’s every reason for Klentak to push the envelope and try to bring a winner to Citizens Bank Park.

Some may question whether the Phillies can plausibly afford to spend much after last year’s free-agent bonanza, but on an annual basis, Harper’s record deal isn’t really that cumbersome. The Phillies have about $167MM on the 2020 books — if you include all of the projected arbitration salaries. Jettisoning Hernandez and Franco, for instance, would trim $18.5MM from that sum.

In terms of luxury tax considerations, the club is at a manageable $186MM (including Hernandez and Franco). At this point, it’s hard to justify drawing a hard line at that $208MM barrier. The Phillies were extremely aggressive last winter, are trying to extend Realmuto and have no designs on going back into rebuild mode at any point in the near future. Treating the luxury threshold as a salary cap would be a suddenly weak-hearted change of course to what has been an aggressive pursuit — particularly given the fact that as a first-time offender, the only real penalty they’d face would be a 20 percent overage fee on their first $20MM. That’s a $4MM slap on the wrist even if they cross the plane by as much as $20MM. And with Arrieta, Robertson and several arbitration players off the books next winter, dipping back beneath the line shouldn’t be that difficult.

The Phillies may have a tough road to contention given the strength of their division rivals, particularly those in Atlanta and D.C., but their direction remains obvious. We’re talking about a big-market, high-payroll club that hasn’t been to the playoffs in nearly a decade, has a GM entering his fifth season, and is only nine months removed from signing a player to the largest free-agent contract the sport has ever seen. The Phillies should and will aggressively add to the roster this winter.

Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

With a new manager and general manager in the fold, the Giants head into the post-Bruce Bochy era as perhaps a dark horse for some significant offseason business.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

Reports surrounding Will Smith’s three-year, $40MM deal with the Braves contained the detail that Smith’s representatives used the Giants’ $17.8MM qualifying offer as a bargaining chip with other teams.  If no rival club was willing to step up and offer Smith the type of multi-year contract he was seeking, Smith would just have accepted the Giants’ one-year offer and returned to San Francisco for the 2020 season.

As it happened, Atlanta came up with a suitable offer and Smith will now be working out of the SunTrust Park bullpen.  It’s possible the threat of an accepted qualifying offer was just a negotiating tactic on Smith’s part, but taken at face value, the closer was seemingly willing to be a Giant next year.

It creates an interesting sliding-doors scenario for the Giants as they head into what could be an intriguing offseason.  If Smith had remained in the fold, would president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi have been more inclined to go for it in 2020, showing the same competitive zeal that led him to keep Smith, Madison Bumgarner, Tony Watson and other seemingly surefire trade chips at the deadline?  Or, with Smith gone and the Giants now in possession of an extra compensatory draft pick, will Zaidi further focus on rebuilding what is still one of the older teams in baseball, and one that suffered its third straight losing season?

It could be that both avenues will be explored, as Zaidi has indicated he will continue the rebuilding-while-reloading strategy that he has deployed throughout his first year running the Giants’ front office.  Zaidi recently said his club is “open to anything” this winter. “We’re still in a mode where we want to compete next year,” he explained. “… But we want to do it in a way that creates flexibility for us and keeps us an organization moving in a positive, healthy direction.”

Zaidi will have a new voice alongside him in the decision-making process, as Scott Harris was hired as the Giants’ new general manager and Zaidi’s top lieutenant.  Though Harris has seven years’ experience as the Cubs’ assistant GM and director of baseball operations, he is also only 32 years old, continuing the recent trend of younger executive hirings (Zaidi himself recently turned 43) and more modern approaches to roster-building around the game.

That same direction extended into the team’s search to replace Bochy as manager, as almost all of the names linked to the Giants job were younger coaches who would have been first-time managers.  As it happened, the club went with a younger name who did boast some dugout-leading experience, as the 44-year-old Gabe Kapler was hired just over a month after being fired from a two-year stint managing the Phillies.

Kapler’s appointment came with no shortage of controversy and even some dismay from some Giants fans.  While in Philadelphia, Kapler amassed only a 161-163 record over two seasons, earning criticism for everything from player discipline issues to questionable in-game tactics and bullpen management.  Nonetheless, there’s a long list of managers who improved after struggling in his first job, and Kapler and Zaidi have a long relationship dating back to their days in the Dodgers’ front office.

Zaidi, Harris, and Kapler will go into their first offseason together looking at an everyday lineup that is technically filled at every position.  Longtime catcher Buster Posey will look to get back on track now that he’s over a year removed from hip surgery, though the Giants will look to spell him with a backup who could play more often than your average second-stringer.  A reunion with Stephen Vogt is already being explored, though the Athletics have also shown interest in bringing Vogt over to the other side of the bay and other organizations are sure to be involved.

The quartet of Brandon Belt, Mauricio Dubon, Brandon Crawford, and Evan Longoria are penciled in around the infield.  The Giants’ outfield was a revolving door in 2019 but the team finally unearthed a couple of hidden gems in Mike Yastrzemski and Alex Dickerson, while Kevin Pillar hit 21 homers and provided at least some stability in center field, even if Pillar’s glovework (-1.6 UZR/150, -5 Defensive Runs Saved) has taken a big step back from his defensive heyday in Toronto.

With a $9.7MM projected arbitration salary, Pillar has a big price tag for a player who is seemingly declining on defense and has never been an above-average bat.  There are arguments on both sides as to whether San Francisco should retain or non-tender Pillar, and this is one of several positions that the Giants could address in a bold fashion.  A trade for the Pirates’ Starling Marte, perhaps, since the Bucs could decide to rebuild under new GM Ben Cherington, though he’s sure to be targeted by multiple contenders and may come at too steep a price. If the Giants prefer a younger player at a lower acquisition cost and salary, they could consider names like Manuel Margot and Michael A. Taylor or look into much less experienced performers.  The free agent center field market isn’t teeming with great options, though Japanese star Shogo Akiyama has some intrigue, and his on-base skills would be a big help to a Giants lineup that struggled to get runners aboard.

In fact, the Giants struggled at basically everything on offense last season, so there’s certainly room for upgrades within their everyday lineup.  Contractual obligations, however, are a big obstacle to creating space — with Crawford, Belt and Posey all coming off subpar years and Longoria owed $58MM for his age 34-36 seasons, rival teams won’t exactly be lining up to make trade offers.  Of that group, Belt probably has the widest trade value since he could be helped the most by a move to a more hitter-friendly ballpark, but he’s also in an era where teams aren’t willing to pay top dollar at first base for anything less than top-flight production.  (Belt’s ten-team no-trade clause further complicates matters.)

This isn’t to say that a creative trade couldn’t be found, if the Giants were to eat money to accommodate a deal or perhaps arrange a multi-team swap.  Perhaps lightning could even strike twice for Zaidi and he’d find another team willing to entirely absorb one of the Giants’ big salaries, such as how the Braves surprisingly paid full freight on Mark Melancon at last year’s trade deadline.

If the veterans could largely be seen as placeholders, San Francisco will look for some offensive improvement from within, if Dubon hits well in his first full MLB season, or if Yastrzemski and Dickerson continue their hot hitting into 2020.  Zaidi has said that the Giants will look to acquire a left-handed hitting infielder who could spell Dubon or Longoria. While rookie Kean Wong has already been claimed off waivers from the Angels, a more proven veteran option would likely be preferred.  Options abound in free agency. Donovan Solano (a right-handed hitter) is also on hand for infield depth, looking to build off a very strong performance in part-time duty in 2019.

Neither Yastrzemski or Dickerson have long track records of success, so the outfield depth will again be an area of concern.  Dickerson’s injury history makes him more of a question mark, so the Giants could consider him as a fourth outfielder type while looking for a more reliable everyday option (probably a right-handed outfielder, as both Yastrzemski and Dickerson hit from the left side).  Cameron Maybin could be brought back for a second consecutive winter, though his pre-season 2019 stint didn’t end in the best of circumstances. Avisail Garcia could be a youthful upside play … or the club could even bring in Yasiel Puig. Odd as it would be to see Puig in a Giants uniform, he does have ties to Zaidi and Kapler.

The Giants could also see this as an opportunity to land a bigger-ticket outfielder.  Nicholas Castellanos’ defensive limitations make him an imperfect fit for Oracle Park’s spacious outfield, though he’d certainly add plenty of pop.  Castellanos could be signed without draft pick compensation, while Marcell Ozuna would cost the Giants a pick since he rejected the Cardinals’ qualifying offer.

Spending on an Ozuna, Castellanos, or even a more expensive free agent can’t be ruled out since the Giants are starting to see daylight after being buried under a pile of pricey veteran contracts for the last few years.  Longoria is the only player under contract past the 2021 season, and the Giants are in no danger of surpassing the $208MM luxury tax threshold, with an estimated current tax number of slightly under $144.6MM. Then again, Zaidi may not be anxious to slot in future obligations unless he sees a real opportunity for value.

Since San Francisco has the extra Smith pick and potentially another choice coming if Bumgarner signs elsewhere, could they make a splash by signing a QO-rejecting free agent of their own?  Anthony Rendon and Josh Donaldson aren’t really options unless third base is opened up by a Longoria trade, though any of the other players who declined the qualifying offer could all fit.  Beyond Ozuna in the outfield, Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, or Zack Wheeler would immediately bolster a shaky Giants rotation.

Such a signing (of the pitchers in particular) would also announce that San Francisco is fully intent on contending for a playoff berth in 2020, and it remains to be seen if Zaidi is willing to make such a big strike this early in his tenure, especially since the Giants are far from being one player away.  One major signing that can’t be ruled out is Bumgarner, yet the Giants might balk at a bidding war that could develop, considering how much interest Bumgarner is already generating.

Even if the Giants avoid the top of the pitching market, some rotation help is certainly required.  Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija are the only hurlers who seem certain for the Opening Day starting five, and even that might not be set in stone if Samardzija is dealt before the final year of his contract.  Tyler Anderson was added on a waiver claim from the Rockies, a move that has some upside potential but is something of a lottery ticket addition for now given Anderson’s lack of big league success.  Tyler Beede, Dereck Rodriguez, Shaun Anderson, and Logan Webb are the other contenders for the three open rotation spots, leaving the Giants in need of experienced arms.  Names from the second or third tier of the free agent market (i.e. Kyle Gibson, Michael Pineda, Tanner Roark, Jordan Lyles, Rick Porcello, Wade Miley) all make some sense.

After losing Smith to the Braves and Reyes Moronta for much of 2020 due to shoulder surgery, the relief corps got some good news when Watson remained with the Giants by exercising his player option.  Watson is by far the senior member of a young bullpen, so some experienced help is a must, and the closer role stands out as the biggest question mark.  It stands to reason that trade candidates like the Blue Jays’ Ken Giles could be on the Giants’ radar. Free agents with late-inning experience, such as Steve Cishek or Pedro Strop, could be considered. Former Giant Sergio Romo can’t be ruled out, or the club might take a chance on Brandon Morrow, who was in L.A. with Zaidi and Kapler.

While the Giants’ 77-85 record actually exceeded some expectations in 2019, it’s worth noting that the club only had a winning record in two months (a 14-13 mark in June, and then a scorching 19-6 run in July).  Much work needs to be done in order to turn San Francisco into a true wild card contender, and this offseason could potentially look a lot like the last — Zaidi swung multiple low-level signings, waiver claims, and trades to shuffle around the fringes of his roster last winter.  This time around, however, Zaidi has a bit more room to maneuver in exploring a higher-priced version of those same transactions.

Offseason Outlook: New York Mets

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The needs are clearer than the means for the Mets as they enter a critical second offseason under GM Brodie Van Wagenen.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Jacob deGrom: $130.5MM through 2023 (includes $20MM signing bonus, due in two installments on 1/2/20 and 1/4/21)
  • Robinson Cano: $81MM through 2023 (excludes $15MM of remaining obligations owed by Mariners)
  • Yoenis Cespedes: $29.5MM through 2020
  • Jeurys Familia: $22MM through 2021
  • Jed Lowrie: $13MM through 2020 (includes $4MM in remaining signing bonus obligations)
  • Wilson Ramos: $10.75MM (includes $1.5MM buyout on $10MM 2021 club option)
  • David Wright: $9MM through 2020 (excludes estimated $3MM covered by insurance proceeds)
  • Justin Wilson: $5MM through 2020

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[New York Mets depth chart | New York Mets Nationals payroll outlook]

The Mets play in New York, as you may already be aware. But the club’s payroll in recent years has not quite matched its top-of-class market size … a fact you’re also likely familiar with if you’re reading this post. As we sit here today, the Mets are already committed to spending as much as or more than they have have in recent seasons, when they have seemingly operated with fairly clear budgetary restrictions.

So, the Mets are tapped out, right? They can try to move money via trades, but that would mean parting with useful players and/or prospects. Tapping into the talent pipeline would be awfully tough to swallow after having already cleared out some of the farm’s most promising youngsters over the past year in other swaps. It seems like a predicament.

Why, then, are we reading articles throwing around concepts of re-signing Zack Wheeler, landing a similarly spendy replacement, risking a good chunk of change on rehabbing reliever Dellin Betances, trading for Mookie Betts, etc? Does Van Wagenen have freedom to pursue such high-priced players or is he limited to value-for-value swaps that don’t add to the team’s existing payroll commitments?

There’s no answer here. It’s all a mystery. The team wouldn’t want the market to know its precise plans, so that’s sensible enough. But it makes it awfully difficult to assess the offseason possibilities and all but impossible to guess some of the key pieces that’ll be available to new skipper Carlos Beltran.

On the one hand, we’ve not been given reason to believe that the Mets organization is on the verge of a big payroll boost. The team seemed in position to do that sort of thing previously — on the heels of a surprise World Series appearance, say — and didn’t really surge in spending. On the other, Van Wagenen actually responded to questions about the $208MM luxury tax line in a manner that suggested it wasn’t completely absurd to ask about. His answer didn’t exactly indicate that the Mets would be ramping up to that level — “if the luxury tax threshold becomes something we have to consider, then we will talk about it at that time” — but the top baseball ops officer could have taken the opportunity to temper expectations and it seems notable that he didn’t.

While we don’t know for sure what financial means the Mets will have to address their needs, we do have a pretty clear idea of what the roster gaps are. And it’s also not hard to identify a few big-league pieces that could be utilized in lieu of prospects to help swing deals. First baseman Dominic Smith is the most obvious candidate to be moved after showing well with the bat but being eclipsed entirely by a large white bear (also known as Rookie of the Year Peter Alonso). And bat-first utilityman J.D. Davis could also be dangled in some scenarios. More on him below. We shouldn’t overstate the value of these players. Smith only had a brief showing last year due to injury; Davis rode a .355 BABIP. Both are limited on the basepaths and in the field. But they’re useful pre-arb performers with clear surplus value who’d hold clear appeal to a good number of rival organizations.

It’s also rather easy to see where the Mets could stand to improve. Let’s start in center field. With the end of the Juan Lagares era, and the failure of the other players brought in last season to supplement/challenge him, there’s a void up the middle. The preference is not to utilize Michael Conforto and/or Brandon Nimmo there, at least in a full-time capacity, so the optimal outcome is to secure the services of a full-time center fielder with a fall-back of getting a right-handed-hitting part-timer to platoon with those existing lefty bats.

Those two paths also play into the question whether Davis ought to be dealt or retained. If the Mets end up with a CF timeshare, then there should be more plate appearances left for Davis to pick up in the corners. But if the Mets find a regular to play in center, then perhaps Davis won’t have as many opportunities as might be preferred in the corner outfield. It’s easier to deal him in that case, perhaps even as part of the swap for the desired center fielder. The Mets could backfill with a low-cost, righty-hitting veteran to serve as a fourth outfielder … or try to dig up the next Davis in another trade. It’s worth pausing to note that Yoenis Cespedes remains a hypothetical candidate to return, though it remains utterly unclear whether and when that might happen. If the Mets have secret cause for optimism on Cespedes, perhaps that also tips in favor of a Davis swap.

So, the options in center … like many teams, the Mets make an ideal fit for Starling Marte of the Pirates. He isn’t cheap, but isn’t so expensive ($11.5MM in 2020 with an option for 2021) that the Mets can’t figure it out. The Bucs have previously chased after MLB-ready pieces rather than prospects, which suits the New York situation. We don’t know if the Pirates will deal Josh Bell, but if they do, Smith would make an awful lot of sense as a target. Trouble is, there ought to be rather intense competition on Marte. And there’s a new front office regime in Pittsburgh, with a shifting mandate that may favor more drastic action.

Rental piece Jackie Bradley Jr. will cost similarly in salary (a projected $11MM) and quite a bit less in return. It’s easy to imagine Ender Inciarte as a fit if the Braves go in a different direction … and decide to deal in their division. Perhaps Manuel Margot would be a nice compromise if something more can’t be done and the Padres decide to move on. He’s priced fairly ($2.1MM projected) as a platoon candidate with some hopeful upside remaining. There isn’t a regular option in free agency, unless you believe in incoming Japanese star Shogo Akiyama. He’s a left-handed hitter who doesn’t seem to have captured the Mets’ interest. Brett Gardner is likewise a lefty bat. The Mets could turn to Cameron Maybin or another righty-swinging part-timer on the open market.

That’s really the bulk of the work on the position player side. Most of the 4-through-6 infield time ought to be accounted for between Jeff McNeil, Amed Rosario, Robinson Cano, and Jed Lowrie — at least, supposing Lowrie can come back from the mystery issues that derailed his first season in New York. Luis Guillorme represents a utility option. Davis can play third base if he remains on hand, though metrics (DRS, especially) have panned his work there. It’s worth noting that top prospect Andres Gimenez is on the rise. He’s just 21 years of age but could crack the majors if he makes strides at Triple-A and there’s a need. You can certainly imagine a bit of supplementation for this group, perhaps in the form of minor-league signings, but the Mets can be rather confident in what they have.

It’s debatable whether that same confidence ought to extend behind the dish, where veteran Wilson Ramos remains a capable hitter and questionable defender. The opposite is true of reserve Tomas Nido. Van Wagenen has indicated he’s not inclined to pursue a major shakeup at the catching position — “we expect to go into the season with Wilson Ramos as our guy” — but will be “in the market looking for backup options.” The Mets could revisit talks with Yasmany Grandal after just missing him last year, but that’d be quite a surprise given those comments and the other, more pressing needs. Expect the Mets to look at the many lower-cost veterans available this year to shore things up behind the plate.

If it was as simple as adding a center fielder and a few complimentary pieces, the budgetary constraints wouldn’t be as worrisome. But the Mets also need arms. The starting staff has four pieces in place but needs several more, particularly given the health scares that some members of the group have had in recent seasons. It’s quite unlikely that the Mets will lure Wheeler back or replace him with an equivalently valuable player — again, unless there’s a much bigger budget to work with than we know. Van Wagenen had names to cite when asked recently about rotation depth. And to be sure, hurlers such as Chris Flexen, Walker Lockett, Corey Oswalt, and recent first-rounder David Peterson do represent near-term options. But it’s tough to rely upon those hurlers for significant contributions, particularly with a full rotation spot as yet unaccounted for. There has been some talk of stretching out Seth Lugo (and also Robert Gsellman), but it seems likely the team will hope Lugo can reprise his excellent relief work from 2019.

Van Wagenen knows that, which is why he has cited a need to improve in the rotation. It’s likely the Mets will try to land multiple pitchers capable of gobbling up innings. New Jersey product Rick Porcello would be the sort of durable bounceback candidate who’d make sense, though he doesn’t figure to be particularly cheap. There are options at every price point on the market this year. No doubt the Mets will be among the many teams prowling patiently as a high-volume class of free-agent starters seeks contracts.

The pen is obviously a need as well. Last year’s unit was one of the worst in baseball. There’s not much choice but to hope that Edwin Diaz figures things out. He could push Lugo back into setup duty with a big spring. Those two hurlers and lefty Justin Wilson will likely make up the key late-inning trio. Jeurys Familia is also going to be given every chance to find his form, though he’s likely destined for a lower-leverage spot to begin the year. Robert Gsellman is another hurler who is looking for redemption. Among the depth options, Paul Sewald stands out. He doesn’t get many swings and misses but got solid results in a brutal Triple-A environment and turned in a 22:3 K/BB ratio in his 19 2/3 MLB innings.

There’s certainly room to improve here. You could argue for two significant additions. But the budget crunch will make it tough to take risks in this area. It’s understandable that some fans would like to see New York native Dellin Betances make a dramatic cross-borough move. But if dollars are tight, that’s a big risk to take. A return for Jersey boy Brad Brach, who was solid late in 2019, would seem more realistic. Fortunately for the Mets, there’s an abundance of solid relief arms that should be available for fairly modest commitments.

In MLBTR’s ranking of the top fifty free agents, we guessed the team would come away with a fifth starter (Ivan Nova) and useful veteran reliever (Craig Stammen). New Yorkers were not especially excited by this — though, to be fair, they were much more upset at our equally ho-hum predictions for the Yankees. There’s no question the Mets can and quite arguably should do more. It’s a tough division, but they’re trying to compete and the window is certainly open. And, yeah, it’s New York.

Substituting out Nova and Stammen in favor of Cole Hamels and Will Harris just might make the difference … and would almost certainly cost an extra $12MM or more in 2020 salary alone. Bringing back Wheeler and adding multiple relievers would be even better … and yet more expensive. We just don’t know how the organization will behave this winter. But we’ll soon find out.

Offseason Outlook: Washington Nationals

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

Right after wrapping up a dream 2019 season, the Nats are already in the midst of an offseason loaded with big questions and abundant possibilities.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Patrick Corbin: $125MM through 2024 ($10MM deferred)
  • Max Scherzer: $70MM through 2021 (all deferred); $30MM in signing bonus payments payable in 2020 and 2021
  • Anibal Sanchez: $11MM through 2020 (includes buyout on 2021 club option)
  • Adam Eaton: $11MM through 2020 (includes buyout on 2021 club option; Nationals exercised 2020 club option)
  • Sean Doolittle: $6.5MM through 2020 (Nationals exercised 2020 club option)
  • Kurt Suzuki: $6MM through 2020

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Washington Nationals depth chart | Washington Nationals payroll outlook]

Things can change quickly, eh? It wasn’t but a few months ago that the baseball world was shoveling dirt on the 2019 Nationals, with huge and unpredictable ramifications for the organization’s future sure to come. But the Dave Martinez-led troops got back on their feet, dusted themselves off, and ultimately made a stirring run through the postseason to claim a redemptive World Series title. And now, after briefly basking in the glow of that victory … the team’s three longest-tenured stars are free agents, along with a slate of other postseason heroes, contributors, and/or Baby Shark visionaries.

The Nats have never faced a crossroads like this, even when Bryce Harper reached the open market last winter. They’ll come to the intersection wearing a satisfied grin, but make no mistake: there are many difficult decisions soon to be made.

Fortunately, the Nationals have loads of payroll flexibility to work with. The club has carried one of the game’s heftiest commitment levels for the past several seasons, paying some luxury tax in 2018 and barely avoiding it in 2019, and could presumably again top $200MM in payroll in 2020. The Nationals enter the offseason with something like $80MM to $90MM of headroom (depending upon arbitration decisions) beneath the $208MM competitive balance tax line. That should give president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo an awful lot of options to consider. (He’ll also likely be negotiating his own new contract; his current deal runs through 2020.)

It all begins with Rendon and Strasburg, a pair of quiet, Scott Boras-repped stars who each turned in ~6 WAR campaigns in 2019. It was far from inevitable that either would reach free agency this year. Mutual interest in a deal prompted a long-running exchange of offers with Rendon, but never resulted in an extension. And the general consensus, until rather recently, was that Strasburg would be best served staying in his own previously inked extension with the Nats. While there’s some reason to think that each player would prefer to stay in DC, all else being equal, the cost to keep these players will be steep. MLBTR predicted that both would secure $30MM+ average annual values over lengthy commitments. The organization would reportedly prefer to wrap up its talks with these two players early in the offseason, allowing both parties to move on if it isn’t to be.

Should the Nats retain both of these familiar faces, they’ll have committed a big chunk of their spending capacity — but hardly all of it. If either or both players depart, the club will have more cash to spread around. But there are a few open-market alternatives that could cost just as much or even more. If Rendon takes off, the Nationals may look to Josh Donaldson as an alternative. The fiery veteran is not far off from Rendon in present on-field ability and won’t require as lengthy a commitment (or, likely, as big an annual salary). And the loss of Strasburg could lead the Nats to join the pursuit of Gerrit Cole, who’s likely to out-earn all other free agents this winter.

As things stand, we just can’t know how these major decisions will turn out. But they represent major offseason plot twists for these and other teams. An extra thirty or sixty million of spending capacity can open quite a few doors. Rather than trying to guess on Rendon, Stras, et al., we’ll run through the many remaining D.C. roster needs and think about players at different price points that could be fits.

Let’s begin on the position-player side. The Nats are crossing their fingers that Trea Turner will bounce back well from his recent surgery; he’s ensconced at shortstop. It’s mostly fixed in the outfield, where phenom Juan Soto and veteran Adam Eaton will flank Victor Robles. Half of the catching situation is accounted for with Kurt Suzuki. And … that’s really all that’s nailed down at the moment. That’s not to say that we would expect the Nats to have seven new position players on the active roster come Opening Day. But every other spot is at least up for grabs and susceptible to change.

The 3-4-5 spots are especially interesting. We’ve seen indications that Ryan Zimmerman could be slated to return at first base, but the club hasn’t moved to do so yet and would certainly be justified in exploring alternatives after he turned in an injury-limited, offensively marginal (.257/.321/.415) campaign. Top prospect Carter Kieboom could be ready for another shot at the majors after scuffling in an early 2019 look. He has a bright outlook with the bat and could be slotted in at second or third base. Jake Noll is in much the same place from a positional standpoint but doesn’t come as highly regarded at the plate. It’s possible he’ll be bumped from the 40-man rather than seen as a significant piece of the puzzle; the same holds for utility infielders Wilmer Difo and Adrian Sanchez.

It seems fair to presume the Nats will be add at least three players to infield mix. At first base, even if Zimmerman is brought back, he’ll be accompanied by a quality lefty bat. Platoon mate candidates include Adams, Mitch Moreland, Eric Thames, and the switch-hitting Justin Smoak. There’s a lot to love about the bat from Edwin Encarnacion, but he’s not likely to spend enough time in the field to fit on a National League team. It’s tough to identify any quality regular first basemen who’d figure to come available via trade unless the Indians make Carlos Santana available or the Pirates dangle Josh Bell. Perhaps Brandon Belt of the Giants could be an option. Brad Miller, who’s probably best kept at first but can fill in all over the field, could be an under-the-radar target.

Even if Kieboom will be relied upon for a major contribution at second base, there’s a need for a regular at the hot corner and a versatile reserve. Fortunately for the Nats, they’re well-positioned to take advantage of the market’s abundance of veteran free agents at second and third base. Mike Moustakas is the next-best option at third behind Rendon and Donaldson; he’s also now capable of seeing some time at second. Outgoing D.C. free agents Howie Kendrick, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Brian Dozier are all available, as are players such as Todd Frazier, Jason Kipnis, Starlin Castro, Jonathan Schoop, Eric Sogard, and Ben Zobrist (who was targeted by the Nats when last he reached free agency). The trade market isn’t loaded with especially appealing options, but could feature some high-priced veterans that might conceivably fit. Dee Gordon, Jurickson Profar, and Matt Carpenter could all make sense for the Nationals in varying ways. The versatile Whit Merrifield would be a perfect fit, though that’s true of other teams and the Royals don’t appear inclined to sell.

Some of those players would also be potential outfield contributors, which would be nice. The Nats could hang on to Michael Taylor and hope he can handle the fourth outfielder role, though his bat has just never been consistent. The left-handed-hitting Andrew Stevenson had a nice 2019 showing at Triple-A and could also be considered, but he wasn’t trusted with much time in the bigs and doesn’t really fit as a compliment to Eaton. So, where might the Nats fit into the free agent market on the outfield grass? Veterans such as Adam Jones, Hunter Pence, and Cameron Maybin could be considered. The Nats may also just bring in some minor-league free agents to compete for jobs and then adjust mid-season if there’s a need.

Behind the plate, there’s an argument for a relatively modest addition to share time with Suzuki. Jason Castro would make for a nice potential fit. Other left-handed-hitting backstop options are available in the form of Alex Avila and Stephen Vogt (along with switch-hitting old friend Matt Wieters, who doesn’t seem likely to filter back). The open market also features Travis d’Arnaud, Francisco Cervelli, Russell Martin, and Martin Maldonado, among quite a few others. The level of player the team will target could depend upon the degree of confidence in 40-man options Raudy Read and Tres Barrera. The former had quite a nice offensive campaign at Triple-A.

There is one more, yet more intriguing possibility: Yasmani Grandal. Interestingly, he’s a more accomplished hitter than any of the first base options on the open market this winter, so the Nats could conceivably utilize him in a ~50-50 timeshare behind the plate while also giving him time at first. Depending upon how things shake out, Grandal could continue to function in a split capacity or slide back into a full-time catching role once Suzuki departs after the season. It’s an intriguing possibility for a team that will have a boat load of free spending capacity and a need for star position-player talent if it loses Rendon.

Things are somewhat more straightforward on the pitching side. The Nats are clearly in the market for Strasburg or a replacement. For a team that once added Max Scherzer to an already-loaded rotation and rode its starting staff to a title this year, all bets are off when it comes to starters. Anyone and everyone is a potential target if Strasburg heads elsewhere. Even if he returns, the fifth rotation spot will be open for supplementation. Joe Ross, Austin Voth, Erick Fedde, Kyle McGowin, and perhaps Shannon Sharp and Wil Crowe (only the former must be protected from the Rule 5 draft) could battle for the job in camp with a minor-league signee or two. Or the Nats could plug in another veteran. It’s frankly impossible to rule out any single starter as a conceivable potential target.

The relief situation might be more interesting if there were high-end closers out there for the bidding. But with Aroldis Chapman and Will Smith both already locked up, the top available arm is the guy who gave up a monster home run to Kendrick in Game 7. Come to think of it, Will Harris is actually not a bad target for the Nats, who desperately need some added certainty after a season full of nail-biting relief appearances. Daniel Hudson could be brought back after his successful stint. He’s part of a pretty broad group of hurlers lined up behind Harris in the pecking order. If the team is inclined to roll the dice again after whiffing on Trevor Rosenthal, it could take a shot on Dellin Betances in hopes of landing on a late-inning ace to pair with Sean Doolittle. Supposing Roenis Elias can get back to form, there isn’t a particular need for a southpaw, so the Nats can focus simply on getting the best arms for the best price.

How many new pen arms do the Nats need? It’d make sense to secure at least two sturdy new options and perhaps add another if the club decides to cut bait on Hunter Strickland. But that really depends how the club feels about its existing arms, since it’ll surely be forced to shave a few players off of the 40-man if it doesn’t rely upon them. Several of the above-noted starters meet that description, as do some of the other uncertain relievers presently taking up roster spots. Austen Williams is coming off of a rough campaign, James Bourque has both an intriguing arm and a walk problem, and both Aaron Barrett and Koda Glover are major health risks.

So what’ll the Nats do to set the stage for an encore? It’s a question without anything close to a clear answer. All of the above possibilities and more are surely under consideration. Soto and Turner are extension candidates, too, it’s worth noting — with added onus, perhaps, if the organization says goodbye to Rendon, Strasburg, and Zimmerman. Even with all the disappointments now atoned for, the Nationals are perhaps entering their most free-ranging and interesting offseason under Rizzo’s helm. And he has already shown quite a penchant for surprise.

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