Archives for 2018

NL Rumors: Realmuto, Mets, Marlins, Pads, Myers, Bucs, D-backs, Rendon

By Connor Byrne | December 13, 2018 at 9:03pm CDT

The Mets’ ongoing pursuit of Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto has dominated headlines this week, and Tim Healey of Newsday sheds more light on the teams’ talks. While the Marlins are interested in all three of Amed Rosario, Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto and reportedly want more than one of those players for Realmuto, it doesn’t seem that’s going to happen, per Healey. Rather, only one member of that trio – likely Nimmo or Conforto – would headline Miami’s return, according to Healey, who adds that the Marlins also like Mets infield prospects Andres Gimenez, Ronny Mauricio and Mark Vientos. All three of those players rank among the Mets’ top prospects, with MLB.com placing Gimenez first, Mauricio sixth and Vientos eighth.

Whether via trade or free agency, the Padres will “absolutely” acquire a third baseman this offseason, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com relays. Picking up hot corner help is the club’s No. 1 priority, Cassavell offers, as corner infielder/outfielder Wil Myers isn’t an ideal fit there, main 2018 starter Christian Villanueva immigrated to Japan and the Padres released Cory Spangenberg. But if Myers isn’t going to play third, it further calls into question what the Padres will do with him this offseason. San Diego is committed to Eric Hosmer at first base and has a host of of other outfielders, after all, and Myers has come up in recent trade speculation. However, despite Myers’ so-so production from 2017-18 and the remaining $64MM on his contract, it seems the Padres remain bullish on him. Indeed, they’re not going to trade Myers for anything but “the right offer,” Cassavell notes. His presence may make one or more of his fellow Padres outfielders expendable, though Cassavell suggests it’s no sure thing they’ll trade anyone from the group.
Having lost Jordy Mercer in free agency, the Pirates have spoken to the Diamondbacks about shortstop Nick Ahmed this week, Adam Berry of MLB.com reports. The defensively adept Ahmed, 28, is coming off a career-best offensive season, albeit one in which he still hit just .234/.290/.411 (84 wRC+) in 564 plate appearances. He’s under control for two more years and will make a projected $3.1MM in 2019. That would be an affordable sum for Pittsburgh, but Berry explains that the team’s content to roll with in-house shortops Erik Gonzalez and Kevin Newman if it doesn’t land Ahmed or another veteran option.
It’s well-documented that the Nationals could lose one of their elite players, outfielder Bryce Harper, to free agency this year. And the team may be in a similar position 12 months from now if third baseman Anthony Rendon, who’s entering a contract year, doesn’t sign an extension. However, general manager Mike Rizzo is optimistic the Nationals will prevent Rendon from leaving, Jamal Collier of MLB.com writes. “I think Anthony wants to be here, I think he wants to be here long term,” Rizzo said. “And we want him here. Hopefully there’s a deal that transpires out of goodwill between the two sides.” According to agent Scott Boras (also Harper’s representative), Washington’s “very aware” of what it has in Rendon, who has “been in the top 10 players in the game in the last three or four years.” Boras is always one to talk up his clients, but he’s not exaggerating in Rendon’s case, as the 28-year-old ranks seventh among position players in fWAR (17.3) dating back to 2016.

AL Notes: A’s, Tulo, Lowrie, Astros, BoSox, O’s

By Connor Byrne | December 13, 2018 at 8:20pm CDT

The latest on a few American League clubs…

The Athletics have come up as a speculative fit for free-agent shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, but the two sides haven’t spoken to this point, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets. If signed, Tulowitzki could be a factor at the keystone for Oakland, which may see starting second baseman Jed Lowrie depart in free agency. As of now, it appears “unlikely” the Athletics will re-sign Lowrie, Jane Lee of MLB.com writes. Lowrie would be a tough loss for the A’s, considering he was one of the majors’ most valuable second basemen from 2017-18.
Meanwhile, despite potentially losing Tony Sipp in free agency, the division-rival Astros aren’t likely to shop at the top of the market for left-handed relievers, per Jake Kaplan of The Athletic (subscription required). Rather, the Astros seem “comfortable” with a pair of in-house southpaws – Framber Valdez and Cionel Perez – as well as a cast of righty relievers who are capable of getting lefty hitters out. It’s not clear whether Brad Peacock will remain among that group of righties in 2019, though, as Kaplan relays that he’ll enter spring training as a starter. Peacock made 21 starts two years ago, but that number plummeted to one in 2018, when he came out of the Astros’ bullpen 60 times.
The Red Sox lost Joe Kelly to the Dodgers in free agency and are also in danger of bidding adieu to Craig Kimbrel, but it doesn’t seem they’re urgently searching for relief help. Instead, the reigning World Series champions are planning to “wait out” the market until a reliever falls to them for a palatable cost, Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston reports. That makes it seem even less likely they’ll re-sign Kimbrel, whose reported asking price is exorbitant, though Drellich hasn’t closed the door on the two sides continuing their union.
Although they’re in a rebuild, the Orioles are “open to taking on a salary” in order to acquire outfield help, according to Joe Trezza of MLB.com. The O’s sought outfielders throughout the Winter Meetings, Trezza adds. With 0.1 fWAR, the team’s outfield finished 29th in the majors in that department last season, and its best regular – Adam Jones, who was below average in his own right – is now a free agent.

Angels Targeting Wilson Ramos, Interested In Yasmani Grandal

By Connor Byrne | December 13, 2018 at 6:43pm CDT

6:43pm: The Angels have also shown interest in Yasmani Grandal, the top-ranked catcher in free agency, Maria Torres of the Los Angeles Times reports. Grandal, 30, spent the previous four seasons in LA as a member of the Dodgers. Because Grandal rejected the Dodgers’ qualifying offer after the season, signing him would cost the Angels their second-highest draft pick and $500K in international bonus pool space in 2019.

6:38pm: The Angels don’t have an established catcher on their roster, but that could change soon. Free agent Wilson Ramos has emerged as their main target on the open market, veteran reporter Jerry Crasnick tweets.

Ramos, whom MLBTR predicts will reel in a three-year, $36MM contract this winter, is coming off his best season since 2016, which ended prematurely when he suffered a torn ACL in his right knee. Although Ramos has now torn the ACL twice in that knee during his time in the majors, he has still enjoyed a respectable career.

Last season, which he divided between the Rays and Phillies, the 31-year-old Ramos slashed a terrific .306/.358/.487 (131 wRC+) with 15 home runs in 416 plate appearances. Defensively, Ramos threw out 29 percent of would-be base stealers, just beating out the 28 percent league average, and earned mediocre overall marks from Baseball Prospectus. Ramos has been a plus defender for most of his career, however, in BP’s estimation. Thanks to his all-around track record, Ramos – also a former Twin and National – has drawn reported interest from several other teams this offseason, including the Dodgers, Mets, Brewers, Athletics and his old club in Minnesota.

Ramos would easily be the most proven backstop in Anaheim, which has just two catchers, Kevan Smith and Jose Briceno, on its 40-man roster. The 30-year-old Smith did perform decently with the White Sox last season, but he only has 497 major league PAs to his name. Briceno, 26, was adequate during his debut with the Angels in 2018, though he has totaled a mere 128 major league PAs and hasn’t been much of an offensive threat in the minors. Of course, given that Ramos has combined for just 185 games since 2017 (including 96 behind the plate last year), it’s likely the Angels’ backup catcher – be it Smith or Briceno – would still garner a fair amount of playing time with him on the roster.

New York Notes: Yanks’ Infield, Gray, Kluber, Bauer, Mets

By Connor Byrne and Jeff Todd | December 13, 2018 at 6:15pm CDT

With shortstop Didi Gregorius set to miss a large chunk of next season, the Yankees are reportedly in the market for the best infielder available, free agent Manny Machado. But in the event the team loses out on Machado, general manager Brian Cashman is casting a wide net in his search for infield help. “I’ve talked to [agent] Danny Lozano about Manny, I’ve talked to the agents for Freddy Galvis. I’ve talked to everybody, from high end to low end,” Cashman said (via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). “This marketplace is deep on second basemen. I have a shortstop that we’re playing at second in Gleyber Torres, so how does this play out?” As Cashman implied, the Yankees could easily slide Torres to short to cover for Gregorius’ loss. In doing so, they’d perhaps be able to add one of the many veteran second basemen available in free agency, though no one from that group would move the needle nearly as much as Machado.

NL West Notes: Dodgers, Ramos, Rox, Smoak, Desmond, Pads, Profar

By Connor Byrne and Jeff Todd | December 13, 2018 at 5:47pm CDT

The Dodgers reached out to free agent backstop Wilson Ramos with interest, per Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times (via Twitter). It seems, though, that the Dodgers are angling for a one-year pact, while Ramos is still seeking a multi-year contract. A single-year deal for Ramos appears unrealistic, given that he’s one of the two best catchers on the market – along with Dodgers free agent Yasmani Grandal – and is coming off an excellent offensive season. MLBTR predicts Ramos, 31, will receive a three-year, $36MM guarantee, which should put him out of the Dodgers’ reported range. Either way, with Austin Barnes as the only catcher who has significant major league experience on its roster, LA seems likely to add a backstop sometime this offseason. The club is reportedly among those still in the hunt for Marlins star J.T. Realmuto.

MLBTR Poll: How Much Will Dallas Keuchel Earn In Free Agency?

By Jeff Todd | December 13, 2018 at 3:42pm CDT

The starting pitching market is off to a rather solid start, even if the movement hasn’t exactly been fast and furious. Patrick Corbin and Nathan Eovaldi topped MLBTR’s predicted contract values, J.A. Happ and Charlie Morton appear to be landing in range of their own anticipated prices, and Lance Lynn scored a surprising three-year pact.

We’ve seen former Astros lefty linked to a variety of teams, but his market has not been as hot as those of some other hurlers. Multiple reports have the Reds and Phillies in the mix. The Blue Jays are involved, though it’s fair to wonder to what extent. The Braves have been connected, and disconnected. It’s certainly not hard to imagine some other clubs with interest, though we clearly haven’t seen a bidding war develop to this point.

Entering the winter, MLBTR predicted that Keuchel would secure a four-year, $82MM deal, with the bet being that teams would be willing to promise him a significant AAV but not a terribly long term entering his age-31 campaign. Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs pegged the value just a shade higher than we did, at 4/$84MM .Others were somewhat more bullish, with Fancred’s Jon Heyman and his anonymous expert predicting a five-year pact in the $95MM to $105MM range.

Given how the market has developed to this point, what do you expect? Will Keuchel find himself frozen out of the biggest contracts? Do the early signings set the stage for a big payday? Or, perhaps, is he still on track to land where MLBTR guessed at the start of the offseason? (Response order randomized. Link for app users.)

Projecting Payrolls: St. Louis Cardinals

By Rob Huff | December 13, 2018 at 2:08pm CDT

The Winter Meetings are now in full swing, so it’s time to keep this ball rolling and move on to our 11th team. Here are links to the previous team payroll projections:

Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Angels
Atlanta Braves
New York Yankees
Chicago White Sox
Boston Red Sox
Minnesota Twins
Milwaukee Brewers
San Francisco Giants

If you have questions about financial information made available to the public and the assumptions used in this series, please refer to the Phillies piece linked above.

Today, we look into a club who has missed the playoffs for three consecutive years for the first time since the 1990s and has already made (possibly) its biggest offseason splash: the St. Louis Cardinals.

Team Leadership

After over 40 years of Anheuser-Busch ownership, the Cardinals were sold to former St. Louis Browns bat boy and American businessman Bill DeWitt Jr. in 1995. DeWitt has maintained ownership of the club since that time, involving his family in the management thereof. DeWitt’s son, Bill DeWitt III, is has been team president for the past decade. St. Louis missed the playoffs each year from 1988-95, a seven-year postseason drought (nobody made the playoffs in 1994), and they made the playoffs only once during the first five years of DeWitt ownership from 1995-99, reaching the National League Championship Series in 1996. Beginning with the 2000 season, however, St. Louis has made 12 postseason visits while missing out on the tournament only seven times, a remarkable run of success.

The front office is lead by President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak. Mozeliak joined the Cardinals organization in 1996 as a scouting assistant and climbed the ladder, finally becoming General Manager in October 2007 before ascending to his current post in June 2017. In a move that coincided with Mozeliak’s ascension, Mike Girsch was named General Manager.

Historical Payrolls

Before hitting the numbers, please recall that we use data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we’ll use average annual value (“AAV”) on historical deals but actual cash for 2019 and beyond, and deferrals will be reflected where appropriate. And, of course, the value of examining historical payrolls is twofold: they show us either what type of payroll a team’s market can support or how significantly a given ownership group is willing to spend. In the most useful cases, they show us both. We’ll focus on a 15-year span for the Cardinals, covering 2005-18 for historical data as a means to understanding year 15: 2019. This period covers a time of tremendous success for the Cardinals. We’ll also use Opening Day payrolls as those better approximate expected spending by ownership.

St. Louis spending was largely unchanged for the latter half of the past decade, sticking just south of $100 million each year from 2005-10 before finally crossing the threshold in 2011. Nevertheless, spending didn’t take a big leap for the Cardinals until the rival Cubs emerged as a force in 2015, perhaps fueling a payroll surge in 2016 that hasn’t subsided.

Despite this increased Major League spending, the Cardinals have never paid the luxury tax, nor have they been players for the most significant international free agents. Their laudable ability to develop talent internally has enabled them to eschew massive spending or risk taking in their pursuit of wins.

Future Liabilities

The Cardinals have something of an all-in approach for 2019. See below.

There are some big-money salaries on here, but most of the Cardinals’ commitments are in the form of mid-market deals for relatively short periods of time, many of which expire or feature options for the 2020 season.

Nevertheless, the team’s best hitter, the newly-acquired Paul Goldschmidt, and their best pitcher, the recently-acquired Miles Mikolas, both figure to get massive raises when they hit free agency in 11 months. If both players produce as stars, the club will either make a big play to keep one or both or they’ll enjoy the compensation draft picks that come along with having a pair of free agents decline qualifying offers and sign elsewhere.

The multi-year commitment to franchise icons Molina and Martinez look like good investments. Molina figures to spend his entire career in St. Louis. His 2017 extension all but ensured that. His top-level defense renders this deal a fine use of cash, albeit not the most efficient one. Martinez struggled with injuries in 2018, but he has consistently pitched as an ace, comes at bargain prices thanks to his 2017 extension, and is still, incredibly, just 27 years old.

Contrarily, the multi-year commitment to Fowler looks like a bad one. The former Cub enjoyed a strong year with his bat in 2017, but 2018 was an unmitigated disaster as Fowler failed to get on bad or hit the ball with authority. For a player with a lengthy injury history, he also missed substantial time with a foot injury. He is rapidly nearing pumpkin territory.

The Cardinals feature a trio of players with club options for the 2020 season that are auditioning for that payday. Carpenter is overwhelmingly likely to have his option exercised as the offensive force with defensive versatility fits on every team. Gyorko has recovered nicely after arriving in St. Louis after bottoming out post-extension in San Diego, but his option is a coin flip at best. Gregerson washed out in 2018 with shoulder issues, but a strong 2019 that shows a return to his 2009-16 success could change the script.

Cecil largely provided the desired results after arriving in 2017, but he flopped in 2018, struggling with homers and especially walks. At 32 and having lost two miles per hour on his pitches across the board, he could be dead weight for the club absent a surprising rebound.

One more franchise icon, Wainwright returns for a last hurrah in 2019 on an incentive-laden deal that contemplates a starting or relieving role. Regardless of who he has left in the tank, he won’t cost the club much.

Finally, there are a pair of extensions for athletic middle infielders. Wong came with a first-round pedigree, but his bat has never fully justified that history, save for a strong BABIP season in 2017. His glove and wheels, however, have rendered him a solid regular. DeJong, on the other hand, the 131st pick in the 2015 draft, positively exploded onto the scene in 2017 and showed that it was no fluke with a strong repeat performance in 2018, albeit one that was based more on his glove than his offensive prowess. Nevertheless, DeJong appears to be a league-average bat with legitimate defensive chops at shortstop.

Finally, we hit the dead money. Like so many clubs in the last decade, the Cardinals featured deferred money in big-money deals for Holliday and Pujols, owing the pair $2.6 million annually throughout the 2020s. That’s not backbreaking money, but it’s more than nothing.

As with the Giants before them, given this amount of guaranteed money, it is perhaps unsurprising that the Cardinals have very little in the way of arbitration eligible talent. Ozuna is the big fish with a seat at the arbitration table as he makes his final trip through the process in advance of free agency next winter. Here are their arbitration projections, noting that Chasen Shreve has already come to an agreement at $900,000, a bit below that projected by MLBTR and Matt Swartz:

In addition to Ozuna, Wacha figures to play a key role despite having lost much of 2018 to a lingering oblique injury.

What Does Team Leadership Have to Say?

The Cardinals are talking like an organization ready to push in a whole bunch of chips on the 2019 table, with Mozeliak stating at the Winter Meetings that “simply, we realize the importance of 2019.”

DeWitt turned things up a notch last month, explaining that “there is value in star players” and adding that “we’re aggressive and we’ve got resources to deploy if the right situation emerges.” Incredibly, DeWitt even specifically addressed spending on free agents when commenting about his desire to build a team that perennially wins 90 games, offering up that “frankly, we felt that incremental benefit (of free agents) could get us those last few wins.”

This is not an organization that seems content to watch the Cubs and Brewers rule the National League Central for the next few years.

Are the Cardinals a Player for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado?

No matter what you hear elsewhere, the answer here is simple: absolutely yes.

Although the Cardinals haven’t signed a player to a contract larger than Matt Holliday’s seven-year, $120 million pact, they made competitive offers for Jason Heyward and David Price approaching $200 million each while agreeing to take on over $250 million for Giancarlo Stanton before he ended up in the Bronx last winter. The team hasn’t shied away from monster offers.

As for their roster, even after shipping out Luke Weaver in the Goldschmidt trade, St. Louis is dripping with cheap, controllable pitching behind Mikolas, Wainwright, and Wacha in the form of Martinez, Jack Flaherty, super-prospect Alex Reyes (despite his injuries), and Dakota Hudson, and that’s before factoring in John Gant’s surprising 2018 season. They don’t really need starting pitching help.

The team is loaded up with right-handed bats featuring good-to-great power in Goldschmidt, Ozuna, DeJong, Molina, and defensively-homeless Jose Martinez. Harper would provide an awfully attractive complement in the middle of that order. I’m not sure if Machado fits as smoothly, but Harper sure does.

Watch out for St. Louis on Harper. They make a ton of sense.

What Will the 2019 Payroll Be?

The Cardinals will almost certainly avoid reaching taxpayer status in 2019. They’ve never shown a penchant to spend to that degree. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if spending received another boost based on the fact that the team has missed the playoffs for three straight years and given the amount of resources poured into the Goldschmidt and Ozuna acquisitions.

As currently constructed, St. Louis has a payroll of just $148.7 million, $149.3 million for luxury tax purposes. Given historical trends and the pressure to win now, I expect to see a notable one-year jump in spending before the team regroups for 2020 with Mikolas, Ozuna, and Goldschmidt all hitting free agency at the same time.

If spending spikes to $180 million, the team would have $31.3 million of space, nearly enough to sign Harper without any other roster maneuvering. I don’t think that things will get quite that lofty, but even a bit below that figure, there’s enough space for the team to make a relatively simple move — like trading Gyorko for salary relief with the third baseman displaced by Carpenter’s move back across the diamond — to clear space for Harper.

Projected 2019 Payroll: $175 million

Projected 2019 Payroll Space: $26.3 million

MLBTR Chat Transcript: Winter Meetings Wrap-Up

By Jeff Todd | December 13, 2018 at 2:04pm CDT

Click here to read a transcript of today’s chat with host Jeff Todd.

The Inner Monologue of @DimTillard: The Winter Meetings

By Tim Dillard | December 13, 2018 at 1:41pm CDT

It’s 10:02am in Nashville, Tennessee. Thursday December 13th, 2018. My name is Tim Dillard, and if you’re reading this looking for the latest up-to-the-minute coverage of the 2018 Major League Baseball Winter Meetings… then I apologize, this isn’t one of those articles. In fact, if you’re not in the mood to hear mostly incoherent ramblings from a bearded, smaller than life, Minor League free agent… then you may want to go ahead and X right on out of this thing. Just tap the back button on your screen, it’s usually in the corner somewhere. I guess swiping is also an option now depending on your phone.

10:05am Anyway, if you’re still here, please lower your expectations a bit. Like I mentioned earlier my name is Tim Dillard. I’ve been pitching in professional baseball for 16 years. To answer the question you’re currently thinking: the hardest pitch I ever threw was 97 miles per hour. And to answer your next question: yes, Chase Utley DID almost hit it through the right-centerfield wall. (no more questions)

10:07am My first season was back in 2003, and I used phone cards to call my parents. Nowadays I have my own phone, and a website, a podcast, a twitter, and occasionally write for MLB Trade Rumors… when I’m super desperate for cash. Which happens quite often since I’ve played 93.75% of my professional baseball career in the Minor Leagues. This percentage could be wrong however, it’s been a while since I was graded in the math department. (It was a C in college algebra BTW… but I’m not here to brag)

10:11am Actually, the only reason I decided to write anything today was because the Winter Meetings have been plastered all over MLB Network this week, and it made me think about the time I snuck into the 2015 Winter Meetings in Nashville.

10:12m I always wondered what went on at MLB’s Winter Meetings, but never had much desire to attend. It appeared to be more for sports agents, sports writers, and General Managers… and the only players I ever heard about attending were the guys signing million dollar deals or the guys meeting up with their agent person for a free dinner.

10:14am But during the 2015 off-season I found myself right in the middle of the event. I was once again a Minor League free agent… which is just a fancy word for unemployed. And if you’re still looking for a job when mid-December rolls around… trepidation creeps in. (fancy word for panic) Every year it gets more and more difficult for older Four-A guys like myself to find places to play. (Four-A is the term for the group of crusty ball players caught in the web between Triple-A and The Show)

10:17am So by the time the December Meetings rolled around, I had already called, texted, emailed, twittered, Facebook stalked, smoke signaled, and Game of Thrones raven messaged literally everyone I knew looking for a Minor League spring training invite.

10:21am I contacted (including… but not limited to) General Managers, assistant GM’s, managers, coaches, coordinators, scouts, farm directors, field coordinators, clubhouse personnel, statisticians, bat boys, and at least 2 mascots. Unfortunately, I received nothing but crickets.

10:23am Around the moment I was filling out my Rodan+Fields application so I could sell stuff to my friends… my parents called me. My dad, former Major League infielder, former Minor League coach, and STILL current role model, told me to try one more thing… a last attempt. He spoke of a tradition. A tradition that has seemingly faded away in the age of technology. The dying art of a handshake at the MLB Winter Meetings.

10:28am As the story goes, the Winter Meetings was once a place where players could see organizational decision-makers face to face, and ask for a job. A situation where people who love the game too much to give it up, could “randomly” bump into baseball executives. So that’s what I did. Uninvited and determined, I walked into Major League Baseball’s 2015 Winter Meetings with coffee… and a handful of homemade business cards that read: “Tim Dillard RHP” (right-handed pitcher)

10:34am The massive indoor resort was filled with people from every realm of the baseball universe. A circus complete with press conferences, interviews, speeches, tv shows, and award ceremonies. All of which could be accessed with proper credentials… I had no such credentials, so I just walked around.

10:36am After parading for an hour, I decided to stand at a strategically positioned walkway. (between the Media Area, hotel rooms, and Starbucks of course) And so for the next 6 hours I shook many new hands, hugged many old friends, and handed out many RHP cards. The first person I saw was my former teammate Gabe Kapler! At the time he was with the Dodgers, but now he’s the Phillies manager. He asked me what I’ve been doing after all these years, and I told him I was still pitching. “Still?” he said. Right after him I saw my former manager Ned Yost! He was fresh off a World Series Title with the Royals and thought it would be the perfect time to ask him for a job. After a big hug he said, “Sorry Timmy, I don’t handle the hiring of Minor League coaches.”

10:41am The next day I stood in the same spot for 7 hours. By this time people thought I worked there, and began asking me for directions. I also successfully gave my information to the Cincinnati Reds’ stadium announcer… I thought he was a coach. Minutes later I saw Astros and D’Backs legend Luis Gonzalez! I reminded him that my dad coached him years ago, and that I used to shine his shoes! He was very cool and friendly until I divulged how I once saw him and tried to get his attention by yelling across the parking lot of a Phoenix area pizzeria in 2007. Suddenly he was late for a meeting.

10:47am Day three was more of the same. “Take the left hallway at the top of the escalator, and Starbucks will be on your right.” But after noticing there wasn’t many baseball people walking around, I left my post and went searching. I caught wind of some Farm Directors talking with Minor League stadium GM’s over at the MLB Trade Show… unfortunately an Access Pass and name tag was needed to get in. So I went and stole one.

10:49am Once inside the Trade Show, I marveled at all of its wonders. Booths and stands of Louisville Slugger bats, Wilson gloves, Franklin batting gloves, a Racing Sausage, Majestic shirts, bobbleheads, New Era hats, Cheeto-infused popcorn, and a speed pitch booth!

10:50am I couldn’t find anybody wearing a MLB team polo, so I strolled over to the speed pitch area. The nice people there told me that if I can throw one of the three balls 88 miles per hour into the net, I’d win a signed Nolan Ryan baseball! “Give me the ball.” I smirked. These dudes had no idea that I was a professional pitcher, but I knew I was about to go home with a Nolan Ryan ball! After I wiped orange popcorn off my fingers I let it rip. First throw… 74 mph. I was just warming up. Next throw… 81 mph. “Oh crap!” I thought. The final pitch I threw with everything I had… 84 mph. (I never wanted a DeLorean so bad in my life)

10:54am Discouraged by my throwing performance and the 20 hours I had spent standing over the last 3 days… it was time for me to go home. Arguably the hardest thing I’ve ever done in my 13 seasons up to that point. Even more difficult than the time I tried to make pitches on a mound in Mexico while toeing a buried cinder block.

10:56am THEN! Just minutes after the MLB Rule 5 Draft had concluded and my feet heading toward the exit, I heard my name! Milwaukee Brewers Farm Director Tom Flanagan was flagging me down, and telling me the Rule 5 Draft had possibly opened up an opportunity for me! We shook hands… a week later I was a Brewer.

10:58am Currently I’m a free agent once again (for the 10th time) and would have loved to revisit the Winter Meetings, but wasn’t able to make it over to Las Vegas. Instead I’ve been intensely watching the TV to see which team is the most desperate for pitching.

11:00am Oh man gotta go! The Rule 5 Draft is coming on… never know!

To Be Concluded…

Mariners, Indians, Rays Strike 3-Team Swap Involving Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Santana

By Jeff Todd | December 13, 2018 at 1:15pm CDT

The close of the Winter Meetings brought with it a interesting three-team trade — authored by none other than Seattle dealmaker Jerry Dipoto, who was apparently operating from a hospital bed. The Mariners have added slugger Edwin Encarnacion while sending recently acquired first baseman Carlos Santana (Encarnacion’s former teammate) to the Indians in the deal. The Rays, too, involved in this swap. They’ll pick up corner infielder Yandy Diaz and righty Cole Sulser from the Indians and send first baseman/corner outfielder Jake Bauers to the Indians

Beyond the players involved in the trade, a reported $5MM will go to the Mariners from the Rays. Seattle, meanwhile, will send a reported $6MM on to the Indians and will also acquire the Cleveland org’s competitive balance pick in next year’s draft. It’s a Round B choice that currently sits at No. 77 — though the exact order of next year’s draft will be altered slightly by the compensation and draft penalization for teams signing players who have rejected qualifying offers. Regardless, the Mariners have likely added a top 80 selection to their slate of picks next summer.

Needless to say, there are some varying considerations at play here. Cash is king with regard to the notable veteran sluggers, who are certainly the most recognizable players in this deal. Encarnacion is owed $24MM through the 2019 campaign (including a buyout on a club option), while Santana’s deal promises him $35MM through 2020 (also with an option buyout).

It’s far from clear that Encarnacion will remain in Seattle when all is said and done. To the contrary, in fact, he may well go to Tampa Bay in a separate swap, per Scott Miller of Bleacher Report (via Twitter), though Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times emphasizes there’s nothing “in place or lined up” in that regard (Twitter link). With the M’s looking to shed payroll and boost their talent reserves, they’ll surely be willing to spin off Encarnacion — to the Rays or another rival — if there’s a favorable offer. After all, the organization already acquired and dumped Santana this winter.

Both Encarnacion and Santana will be looking to recover from relative down seasons. The former, 35, slashed .246/.336/.474 with 32 home runs last year, still a productive campaign but not to his usual standards. He’s seen mostly as a DH at this stage of his career, but can still line up at first base on at least a part-time basis. The 32-year-old Santana, meanwhile, turned in a .229/.352/.414 batting line and swatted 24 long balls in 679 plate appearances with the Phillies, who signed him after out-bidding the Indians but soured on the fit this winter. He’s regarded as a solid performer at first and still draws walks at an impressive clip; in 2018, in fact, he took 110 free passes while going down 93 times on strikes.

Working out the math for Seattle, the team will end up sending out $1MM while paring $11MM in obligations, resulting in a net savings of $10MM. They’ll only have one year of Encarnacion to deal along elsewhere, but they’ll also pick up the draft selection for their trouble.

The Indians, meanwhile, will open some additional 2018 payroll space by shedding the big hit on Encarnacion. Santana will cost more ($29MM) in the aggregate, but it’s spread over multiple years. The money from the M’s is split into $2MM and $4MM payments, Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer tweets. Plus, there’s the post-2020 buyout. All said, there’s now added cash hung on the 2020 and 2021 ledgers. Presumably, the club is also pleased to bring back a long-time franchise stalwart. Of course, now that Bauers is on hand along with Santana, there are now new trade possibilities here as well. First baseman Yonder Alonso, who’s owed $8MM in 2019 along with a $1MM buyout on a 2020 option, could end up on the move, though Bauers could also factor in the outfield mix and the team could utilize Alonso and Santana as a first base/DH pairing.

On the Rays’ end of the swap, Bauers was long considered a top prospect but clearly wasn’t seen as a key piece for the club. Diaz will enter an ever-changing infield mix in Tampa Bay after a strong 2018 showing in which he posted .797 OPS figures at both the Triple-A (426 plate appearances) and MLB (120 plate appearances) levels. In addition to possessing some of the game’s most impressive biceps and the ability to line up at third base as well as the corner outfield, Diaz will come with six seasons of future control. Rays exec Chaim Bloom says the club likes the versatility and the upside that comes with the 27-year-old (video link on Twitter from Topkin). Sulser, 28, has yet to reach the bigs, but will presumably factor into a deep Rays relief corps after throwing 105 innings of 3.51 ERA ball with 12.3 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 at Triple-A over the past three seasons.

Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter links), Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (all Twitter links) and Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter links) were all at the forefront of the reporting on this news.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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